Science & Technology Development, Vol 18, No Q1 - 2015
KINH TE VIET NAM: GIAI PHAP "VUIJT DAY" VA TANG TRlTdNG B^N VO'NG VIETNAM ECONOMY. SOLUTIONS FOR ESCAPING DEPRESSION AND TOWARDS
A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Ngu.vln Chl Hal
Trudng DH Kinh li - Lual, DHQG - HCM - [email protected] Nguyin Thfiy Duong
Tmdng Dai hoc Kinh t i TP. HCM
r-Sii; nhdn ngay 20 thing 01 ndm 2015 hodn chinh sira chUa ngdy 26 Ihdng 03 nam 2015)
T6M TAT
Ndt dung bii viil nhdm nhdn dlin vi ddnh gid can nguyen suy giim ldng Irudng aia nin ktnh ll Vie, Nam giol doan 2011-2014 Kil qua nghien eth, chi ra ring ben eanh nhting nguyen nhdn ndi 1,1 cua mo hmh long Iruang diim nghen hiin ,,1 eiia nin kinh li chlnh ii si, iqc hdu vl Irinh dq cdng nghe vandng sual Ihip Bal vtel eiing khuyin ngh, cie giil phdp di nin ktnh li Viel Nom '•yuql ddy" suy giam va tdng Irudng ben vimg.
ti bin Z *'"*"• ^ ^ " '^' * ' " ' ' ' ' ' ^'^'''" '^^ ^ *'"'' "• "^'"^ ™^' * ^ " ' ^"^ '^"^ "^^'' P^^^ "'^" ^^^
ABSTRACT inlhel'X'^foiTml'T'T'T"'''^^^^^^^
model I , ; '"""'" ""'• '" """""" '" "••^eenotts problems of Ihe growth
•"•I obsolete lechnology and low produeltvily are the mom faclors causing Ihe decliL The sl.dy
t Z m c T ' "•'"'"-" f" """'"' •" <^« «• "f"' ^conomtcdepression and reach o suslotnal
s « s l a , Z i : m , c Z Z r " ' " ° " ™ " ''''""°"' '"'""-•'• - ' - " " " - * » ' ° ^ .. GIOT THIEU
-Kmh li ViSl Nam ii din dSy'- |a chd ii cua mdl cudc Toa dJm khoa hoc duoc Id chuc 131 TP.HCM vao cudi Ihang 11 nam 2014 vdl su gdp msi ciia mdl sd chuyen gia kmh li giang vien kinh le d Ha Ndi va TP Hd Chi Mmh X n a , p h s , , i , t a „ i | „ „ . „ | ^ . _ _ ^ | . y . , ^
Nam hiin nay, di ira Idi cau hdi: Kinh li Viel Nam ii thoii day hay chua? Cudc toa ittm
"ndng" lin vdi cau hdi tudng chirng nhu don gian: Chu ky kinh ti la gi? Cilc lieu chi dinh gii giai doan "suy giam" ciia chu kJ kinh ti?
Thirc ra diy cung Ii chu de Iranh lu|n giiJa cic nha kinh te theo hudng phii ndi sinh vi ngo^i
sinh trong viec giai thich nguygn nhan cua chu ky kinh ti.
Nhihig ket qua kha lac quan vi sy hdi phyc va dn djnh vr md cua nin kinh ti Viet Nam nam 2014, ciing vdi nhihig thanh cdng mdi trong nhan thuc va thuc tiln diiu hanh kinh td vr md cua Chinh phu, cho phep chung ta nhan dien rd hon, cd trong tam hon vi cac difm nghen, bat cap cdt ni trong nin kinh ti, di cd nhimg giai phap phu hop nhim dua nin kinh ti
"vugt day" va tang trudng bin vimg. Myc tigu tdng quat cua nin kinh t i Vigt Nam nam 2015 da duoc Chinh phu xac dinh la- "Tang cudng 6n dinh kinh ti vT md. Diy mgnh thuc hifn cac dpt phd chiin luge, tai co clu kinh ti gin vdi chuyen ddi md hinh tSng trudng, nSng cao nSng suat, hifu qua va nang iyc canh tranh, phin diu tang trudng kinh ti cao hon va vOng chic hon nam 2014" (Nguyen Tin Dung, 2014) Thyc hifn muc tieu tdng quat nay, nam 2015 sg la nam ban li di nfn kinh ti Vife Nam budc vao giai doan phat trien mdi, vdi myc tifu vira dgt toe dg tang trudng cao, vua dam bao phat triin ben vOng. Theo chiing tdi. myc tifu tdng quat tren hoan loan cd thi kha thi va nin kinh te Vift Nam cd co hpi tao ra budc dft pha mdi trong nam 2015 va cdc nam tiip theo, niu nhan difn diing can nguyen ciia tinh trang suy giam tang trudng kinh le va cd nhihig giai phap phii hgp.
Bai viet nay, tdc gia mudn thdng qua viec tra ldi cau hdi trfn, di dua ra mdt each tiip can vg phat triin kinh ti Vift Nam hign nay, dd la phai coi yfu td nang suat (Productivity) la yiu t i cd vai trd quyet dinh ddi vdi nang Iuc cgnh tranh (NLCT) va tang trudng bin vQ-ng Phat trign khoa hoc cdng nghe (KHCN) chinh ia chia khda df nang cao hifu qua cua nfn kinh ti,
TAP CHl PHAT TRl^N KH & CN, TAP 18, SO Q l - 2015
hudng dfn myc tifu phat triin nhanh, bin vimg Clia nin kinh tf Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi 2. CO SO KHOA HQC VE CHU KV KINH TE VA VAN DUNG VAO DIEU KIEN KINH TE VIET NAM
Trong nin kinh t i thj tnrdng, sy thay ddi Clia san lugng, gia ca, Iai suit va thit nghifp tao nen chu ky kinh doanh Ly thuyit chu ky kmh ti hay cdn goi la chu ky kinh doanh (Business Cycle) la mot trong nhimg ly thuyit CO ban trong kinh ti vr md, song ciing la ly thuyit gay nhifu ban luan trong gidi kinh ti hoc vi each giai thich cac dao ddng ciia chu ky kinh t i Chu ky kinh tf thudng dupc hifu la
"mgt sy dao ddng ciia tdng san phim qudc dan, Clia thu nhgp va viec iam, thudng keo dai tu 2 den 10 nam, dugc danh diu bang mpt sy md rdng hay thu hep tren quy md Idn trgn hiu hit cac khu vyc cua nin kinh tf" (Paul A Samuelson • William D.Nordhaus; 2007; Trang 347). Cung cd thi dien dgt ngin gpn hon, chu ky kinh te la su dao ddng cua san lugng Ihyc ti xoay quanh "tryc" san lugng tiim naiig, Sy biin dpng ciia GDP thuc tf trong mpt chu ky kinh te thudng theo thir tu ba pha lln lugt ia suy thoai, phuc hdi va hung thinh (Hinh 1).
Theo cac nha kinh ti, giai doan suy thodi trong mpt ehu ky kinh ti la khi GDP cua nin kinh ti suy giam hong mdt thdi gian nhit djnh.
Cac nha kinh ti hpc cung chi ra ring diu hifu rd rang cho su suy thoai ciia nin kinh ti la khi G p p thyc tg tang hudng am trong 2 quy Uen tiep, Theo do, "day va dinh" cua mdt chu k^
kinh tg ehi dugc nhan dign khi "nin kinh ti da sang pha tiep theo sau diim ngoSt vdi diu hifu la tdc dp tang trudng GDP thuc t i ddi chiiu giifa miic am va miic duong" (Chu ky kinh ti).
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Science & Technorogy Developtnent, Vol 18, No Q l - 2015
H i r n g l b ^
f'yQ^iS ,?ii3 LNT^ng tiem n a ng
H i n h l . Chu kJ kinhti Tuy nhign, ddi vdi cac nudc dang phat trifn
hifn nay, vifc nhan difn mdt chu ky kinh te cQng trd nfn kha phuc tgp, do chu kji kinh ti diln ra dudng nhu khdng mang tinh quy lu^t.
Neu nhu can cir v^o sy tang truong Sm ciia GDP thyc ti, thi c6 nhiiu qu6c gia dang phat trien cd chu ky kinh doanh kgo dai hang chye nam, vi khong cd tang tnrdng km. 6 cac qu6c gia Ddng Nam A tir sau khiing hoang kinh ti 1997 - 1998 din nay, chua thiy cd tang trudng am trong dgi da so cSc qu6c gia khu vyc; cdn d Vift Nam, tir khi bit diu su dyng each tfnh GDP, chua cd nam nao tang trudng am, Thyc ti nay chi ra ring, doi vdi cac nen kinh ti dang phat trign, giai doan suy thoai cd the vln d muc duong nhung GDP thyc ti tang hudng cham Igi va^giam trong thdi gian kha dai. Thgm vao dd, dau hifu rd rang vg tinh trang suy thoai kinh tf cdn thi hifn kha rd theo cac tieu chi sau:
- Tigu diing giam mgnh, hang tdn kho tang
- c l u vi lao dpng giam, thit nghifp tSng 6 miic cao.
- Lgm phdt cd xu hudng ch§m lgi do chi tifu vi diu tu gidm, siic mua hgn chi.
- Sy bit in, yiu kgm ciia thj trudng cac yiu to sin xult nhu thj hudng tai chfnh, diu tu hong va ngoai nudc, hogt ddng cua hf thing nganhing...
- cac doanh nghifp trd nfn "6m yeu", s6 doanh nghifp pha sin nhieu hon cac doanh nghifp gia nhgp thj trudng...
Thyc tien phat hien kinh ti d cac nudc dang phat hien ndi chung, nen kinh ti Vift Nam ndi rifng, theo chiing tdi nen quan niem chu kJ kinh te nhu la mpt giai dogn tir tang hudng - suy giam tang trudng - phyc hhi da tang trudng. Cd thg hiiu svr suy giam tang hudng la GDP thyc te thap hem san lupng tiim nSng, nin kinh ti roi vao suy giam tang tnidng vdi cdc dau hieu nhu da trinh bay d trfn. Sy suy giSm tang trudng ed thf do tic dgng ca vi phfa tdng cau va tdng cung
TAP CHl PHAT TRlfiN KH & CN, TAP 18, S(5 Q1 - 2015
P- P
Q- Q Q"
Hinh 2. Kinh te suy giam do tdng clu Khi long cdu bien dpng, duang AD djch chuyen xuong AD; ldm cho sdn luang giam lie Q xudng O \ gid giam lit P lai P' (gidm lam phdi).
Q- Q Q' Q
Hinh 3. Kinh te su} giam do tdng cun"
Do CO su dot bien tie phia cung. tdng cung AS dich chuyen sang trdi AS', ldm cho san luang gidm tie Q xudng Q \ gid cd Idng tie P len P' (lam phdt ldng)
Ngudn. PA Samuelson- Trong cac Iy thu>'it \ i chu ky kinh ti, nhimg ngudi iing hp ly thuyit "Chu k> kinh doanh thyc te" da gmi thich sy biin ddng ciia chu kj kinh ig ia do cac "cu sdc cdng n g h f cd lac dpng ian tda rich cyc hay tieu cyc din nang suat cua nin kinh ti (P.Samuelson. Trang 355).
CTac nha kinh tf theo hudng phai na> gia djnh ring, khi nin kmh ti trai qua cac biin ddng Irong kha nang chuyin cac >iu td diu \ao thanh san lugng diu ra. se gay ra nhimg biin ddng hong san lugng va viec lam L> ihu>gi nay cOng gmi thich ring, giai dogn su> thoai Clia chu ky kinh ti la do su thut liii ciia cdng nghe. theo dd lam giam san lupng va viec lam Clia ngn kinh ti (N Gregor> Mankiw; 1996.
Trang 404).
Nhimg nguoi phan ddi ly thu\ii "Chu k\
kinh doanh thyc te" khdng tin ring nin kinh ti phai trai qua cac "cii sdc Idn vi cdng nghe".
bdi vi "nhin chung. tiin bd cdng nghf diln ra tir tir" va "sy thut liii ve cdng nghe la difu dac bigt khd higu" (N. Gregor>' Mankivi-; 1996;
»'D Sorhaus (2007f, Trang 352.
Trang 404). Tuy nhien. vin di chiing ta quan tam d day la nang luc su dung ngudn luc ciia nin kinh tg, dac biet la cdng nghe, sg ia nhan td quyet djnh yeu id nang suit (Produchvity) hong nen kinh lg. Dav ciing la nhan td co anh hudng qujit dinh din nang luc canh tranh va tang midng ben vihig ciia nin kinh te.
3. NHAN DIEN "DAY" CHU KY KINH T E 0 V I E T N A . M
Tu dau thap mgn 1990 den naj, nin kinh ti Viet Kam da trai qua ba ihdi dogn suy giam tang trudng. dd la: 1998 - 1999, 2008-2009 va 2011 -2013
Niu nhu 2 dm suj- giam tang mrdng hudc, ta do nen kinh ti Viet Nam chiu tac ddng manh tir cac cugc khiing hoang kinh ti tir bgn ngoai, thi dgt SUJ giam tSng midng kinh ti ki tir nam 2011 chu yeu xult phat tii ndi tai nin kinh te, ma nhihig j i u kem, bat cap da duoc nhifu nghien cuu chi rd.
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Science & Technology Development, Vol 18, No Ql - 2015
- % GDP - % CPI - l/ODP (%) - Bdi chl ngan sich (% GDP) - Can bang Ihoong (Ty USD) - No cdng (%GDP)
Bang 1. Tang 2008 5,66 19,89 43,1 4,60
-18 2009
5,4 6,52 42.8 6,90
-12,8
trudng kinh te Viet Nam 2010 6,42 11,75 41,9 5,60
-12,6 2011 6,24 18,58 36,4 4,90
-9,80
56,5 54,9 2008-2014
2012 . 5,25 9,21 33,5 4,80
0,748
55,7 2013 5,42 6,04 30,4 5,30
0,10
56,0 2014 5,98 1,84 31,0 5,30
2,0
60,3 Nguon: Tdng hpp tir Uy ban Kinh li cda Qudc hpi 2014 (trang 4) vd Thai bdo Kinh tS Vtel Nam (trang 6)
Bang tren cho thay, tdc do tSng tnrdng GDP Clia Viet Nam dgt ty le thip nhit la nam 2012 5,25% (2011: 6,24%), nam 2013 tang nhe d miic 5,42% va nam 2014 dgt 5,98%. Nhu vay nam 2012 nin kinh ti da "cham day" ciia da suy giam va keo dai cho din cudi 2013, sau dd cd diu hifu hdi phuc kha rd nam 2014.
Theo Chung tdi, di xac djnh nin kinh ti Vift Nam da "ehgm day" suy giam tang trudng va bat diu hoi phuc chua, cln xem xgt d cac lieuchicoban, cu thf la-
Thu nhdl, nfu xet vi tang trudng GDP,
"day" iang tnrdng d mirc 5,25% nam 2012, muc dp hdi phyc tang trudng ciia nfn kinh ti dien ra cham va cd nhiiu khd khan gin vdi myc tifu quan hpng nhit la dn djnh kinh ti vT md lai clu mic nfn kinh ti theo hudng nang cao chat lupng tang hudng, hieu qua va phal hifn ben vihig.
Thiehai. tinh hinh hoat ddng ciia cac doanh nghifp dac biet la khu vyc doanh nghifp tu nhan (DNTN), miic dp ehgm day khdng hiing pha vdi da tang hudng, ma "day" la nam 2013, khi sd doanh nghigp dimg hoat ddng va gmi thf len din 60.737 doanh nghifp, tang 11,9% so
vdi nam 2012. Dang chu y nira la, vdn dang ky mdl Clia cac doanh nghiep nam 2013, d miic thap nhit trong 3 nam 2011 - 2013
Thirba. trong 2 nam 2013 - 2014, kinh ti vT md da chuygn biin ngay cang dn djnh, lgm phat suy giam, cac can ddi vT md trong nfn kinh tf tdt hon, tuy nhifn tinh hang np xlu va bat dn Clia hf thdng ngan hang, tinh hifu qua hong hoat ddng kinh doanh ciia khu vyc doanh nghifp nha nudc (DN>JN), tifn dp tai clu tnic nfn kinh te... cdn han chi, bit cap.
Thu lu, cic yfu td cung - clu va cSn doi cung - cau hong nin kinh tf tir nam 2011 - 2014 vln tdn tai nhirng khd khan, bk 6n. Ve phia cung, ciing vdi suy giam hong san xult kinh doanh la tinh hinh hang tdn kho hong nin kinh ti kha cao, tdc dp cai thifn tinh hinh cham.Ve phia cau, ciing vdi su suy giam hong dau tu Clia cac doanh nghifp trong nudc, sire mua ciia nin kinh te h i m Ilng va tang cham.
Tinh hlnh trfn cho phgp ciing cd nhgn djnh, kinh tf Viet Nam da "cham day" suy giam tang tnrdng, nhung dang di Ifn (tu 2013) ch&m chgp va cdn tiim In nii ro, tham chi khdng logi hir CO nguy CO md rdng day suy giam tang tmdng
TAP CHi PHAT TRI^N KH & CN, TAP 18. S 6 Q1 - 2015 Clia nen kinh ti, cho dd tdc dg phuc hdi cua nin
kinh tg da khd rd rft hong nhiing thang gin day (tang tmdng quy 1/2015 dgt 6,03% so vdi ciing ky nam mrdc).
4. "CAN NGUYEN" SUY GIAM TANG TRI/dNG CUA NEN KINH TE VIET NAiVl
_ Nguyen nhSn chii yiu ciia nhihig khd khan, bat cap va suy giam tang hudng cua nin kinh tg Viet Nam nhung nam gin day. la do md hinh tang hudng kinh t i theo chiiu r^ng, dya vao tham dyng tai nguyfn va vdn da kgo dai qua lau. Them vdo do tu duy difu hanh chinh sach con anh hudng quan diim "Quan hi tdng clu"
df kich hiich tang tmdng, kf ca khi Tmng Uong da ban hanh NQI I (2011) vg kiim chi lam phat, dn djnh kinh ti vT md, chuyin ddi md hinh tSng trudng.
Tuy nhien, cSn nguygn va ngudn gdc ciia nhihig hgn chi, bit cgp cua nin kinh ti, chinh la do hinh dp khoa hgc cdng nghf (KHCN) cdn thip, nang suit lao dpng xa hgi thip, hieu qua dau ta Clia nfn kinh t i cd nhiiu bit cap. Day
cung chinh la "gdc r l " din din "vdng luln . quan" ngheo ddi, tmh hang mic bl> "thu nhap trung binh" d nhifu nudc dang phat triin, ma nen kinh ti Viet Nam hien nay cung khdng phai la mdt ngoai If "dugc miln nhilm" cac nguy CO nay.
Theo bao cao eua Td chuc lao ddng qudc tf (ILO) nam 2013, NSLD cua Viet Nam chi blng 1.'4 Clia Thailand, i/5 cua Malaysia, l/IO ciia Han Qudc va 1/15 ciia Singapore (Uy ban Kinh te Clia Qudc hdi; 2014; Trang 5). Cdn thdng tin mdl nhat cua td chtrc nang suit Chau A (APO 2014) thi NSLD cua Vift Nam nam 2012, tinh theo siic mua hicmg duong nam 2011 dat 7.900 USD/ ngudi, chi blng 6,9% cua Singapore (114.400 USD), bang 16,95% cua Malaysia (46.600 USD), 34,5% ciia Thailand (22.900 USD), 39,5% ciia Indonesia (20.00 USD), 53,74% cua Philippines (14.700 USD) va tuong duong vdi Lao (7.900 USD), chi hon 2 nudc hong khu vuc Ddng Nam A la Mianmar (6.700 USD) va Campuchia (4.600 USD).
US Japan Korea Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Asean China Philippins Viemam Lao PDR Mjanmar
Nepal Cambodia
•
1 { [- --
' 20
• • -ic:
t 147 H ^ 79 N - ^ 7 . 9 I--I6.7
^* 4.6 k^ 4.6
'
—*^ 66 9 54 8
-"•—^ 102 6
M Thousands of US dollars (as of 2012) Hinh 4. Nang suit Iao dong ciia Vift Nam so vdi mot sd qudc g
Ngudn- APO Productivity Daiabook 2014, Page 67
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Science & Technology Development, Vol 18, No Q1 - 2015 Cung theo thdng tin ciia Td chirc nang suat
chau A (APO, 2014). tdc do tang NSLD cua Vifc Nam cd xu hudng giam dan theo thdi gian Nfu giai doan J 990 - 2000 tdc dd tang NSLD tmng binh cua Vift Nam dat 5,7%, din giai doan 2000 - 2012 giam xuong cdn 4,5%, hong dd giai doan gan day 2005 - 2012, tdc dp tang NSLD cua Vift Nam chi cdn 2,9%.
Mat bang thip vf KHCN, NSLD d trinh dd thip, tdc dp gia tang NSLD giam din, dd la nguyfn nhan chii yfu din din nang l\tc canh tranh (NLCT) ciia nen kinh ti thip va c h ^ dugc cai thifn, cac thdng tin dudi dSy cua World Economic Forum vg chi sS canh tranh toan clu (GCI) d cac nudc Ddng Nam A, phan anh kha rd tinh hinh nay.
Bang 2, Chi sd canh tranh toan cau (GCI) d cac nudc Ddng Nam A
STT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Quoc gia
Singapoie Malaysia Bninei Thailand Indonesia Philippines Vielnam Campuchia Dong Tlmo Lao Mianmar
GDP binh quan dau nguiVi (USD)*
51.162 10.304 41.703 5 678 3.592 2.614 1.528 934 3.730 1 446
835
2011-2012
Dilm/7 5 6 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.4 4 1 4 2 3.9 3.4
Thu hang/142
02 21 28 39 46 75 65 97 131
2012-2013
Dl^ni/7 5.7 5.1 4.9 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.3
Thir hang/144
02 25 28 38 50 65 75 85 136
2013-2014
Dilin/7 5.6 5.0 4.9 4 5 4.5 4 3 4.2 4.0 3.2 4.1 3.2
Thu h9ng/148
02 24 26 37 38 59 70 88 138 81 139
*Sd lieu nam 2012
Ngudn. Tdc gid long hap lie :World Economic Forum The Global Compelitiveness Report 2013 - 2014.
(http.//www. weforum. org/reports/global-compeliliveness-repori-2013-2014) 5. CAC GIAI PHAP BE NEN KINH TE
"VU(;rr DAV" VA TANG TRUONG BEN VLi>fG
Nhihig giai phap de nin kinh ti Vigt Nam khdi phyc da tang hudng va phat hiin nhanh, ben vimg da dupc Dang va Chinh phu dinh hudng hong cac Nghi quyit ciia Dang, Thdng difp Clia Chinh phii va nhiiu kiin nghi cua cac chuygn gia kinh tf trong va ngoai nudc Dudi gdc dp Iiep cgn ngudn gdc, cSn nguyen nhirng han chf ciia nin kinh ti nhu da hinh bay d eac
ndi dung trgn, chting toi xin dua ra m^t so kiin nghj cu thg sau
Thu nhdt, frong difu hanh chinh sAch vT md, Chinh phli can nhat quan quan diem: Kich clu df tang trudng hay tang cung (san lupng tiem nang) df tSng trudng bgn vimg? Chiing tdi cho ring di nin kinh tf cd thf dat toe dp tang trudng cao va ben viJng, can md rpng san lupng tiim nang, nang cao nang lyc san xult, nhdt la tang cung tu lifu san xult, tao dieu kifn tang nang suit Iao dpng, nang cao chit lupng
TAP CHi PHAT TRI^N KH & CN, TAP 18, S6 Q l - 2015 tang hudng ciia nin kinh te. Day ciing chinh la
tu tudng Clia Dai hpi Dang lln thu X! va quan difm Clia Chfnh phu hong vigc ddi mdi md hinh tang hudng, tai clu tnic nfn kinh te ii phat trign nhanh va bin vinig.
Thu hai, dg ddi mdi md hinh tang trudng, chuyen dich co cau kinh t i theo chiiu sau, cln nang cao hieu qua diu tu hong nin kinh ti, cu thiia.
- Khu vuc kinh tg nha nudc thuc hien tdt chuc nang "ba dd", "nin tang'" ciia nin kinh ti blng viec dau tu phat hiin co sd ha ting, cung cap cac djch vy cdng cln thiit dap ung yfu clu phat hien cua doanh nghiep, tinh gpn va nang cao hieu qua hoat dpng cua cac DNNN di cac DNNN thuc sy dam nhiem vai hd "tien phong", "diu dan" hong nin kinh ti va md rgng kha nang canh hanh hen thj trudng qudc tf.
- Khu vyc kinh te tu nhan, bao gdm ca cac doanh nghifp hong nudc va cac doanh nghifp FDI, cln nang cao hifu qua hoat ddng kinh doanh bang each, (i) Lya chgn diu tu va md rpng diu tu dung hudng, uu tifn cac ITnh vyc dau tu theo chieu sau, cd lpi thi canh hanh; (ii) Doanh nghiep phai coi diu tu cho KHCN la ddn bay, chia khda de phat friin bin vung; (m) Coi vifc md rpng thi trudng ra bfn ngoai tren CO sd khai thac ioi thi canh tranh la yiu id cdt Ifii cho sy thanh cdng cua mdi doanh nghifp, (iv) Nang cao nang lyc quan tri va tu du> chiin luge Clia dpi ngu doanh nhan
Thu ba, dg nen kinh (i phat tnin nhanh va hifu qua, digu cdl loi la phai phat huy vai trd Clia KHCN hong nin kinh ti Df KHCN that sy trd thanh dgng lyc cho su phat uiin ciia nin kinh fe, can cd cac giai phap co ban nhu
- Chiin lupc phat hiin KHCN qudc gia cln dupc hoan chinh va cy the theo hudng- (i) Xay dung dugc lp hinh phat hiin KHCN qudc gia;
(ii) Nang cao nang luc lya chpn KHCN, ddng
thdi quan tam dting muc din phat hiin nin KHCN ndi sinh; (iii) uu tien phat triin cac ITnh vuc CN img dung cd chpn Ipc. ddng thdi quan tam diing miic din cac ITnh vuc.nghifn ciru co ban. Nha nudc can cd vai frd ehti yiu trong viec dau tu cho ITnh vuc nghign cuu co ban.
- Ddi mdi chinh sach phat frifn va quan iy KHCN, cu thf. (i) s i p xip, giam bdt bd may quan ly hanh chinh ddi vdi KHCN, tang eac td chiic hoat ddng KHCN va dich vy KHCN cua tu nhan; (li) Ddi mdi co ban cung each diu tu va quan ly kinh phi KHCN mot each hieu qua;
(iii) Ddi mdi each thiic thu hut va chinh sach tign Iuong ddi vdi dpi ngii can bp, chuyfn gia KHCN theo hudng gin vdi ygu clu phat triin ciia dat nudc va hdi nhap qudc ti
- Phat frien thi trudng KHCN, bao gdm ca cac yfu td cung va yiu td clu, gin kit giOa cung va cau frong mdi trudng kinh doanh nang ddng, hifu qua, cu thi la: (i) Vf phia cung, cac san pham KHCN cln dupc diu tu va phat hiin gan vdi thj hudng, dap img yeu clu canh franh cua cac doanh nghiep, dae bigt la cgnh tranh trgn th] trudng quoc ti, (ii) Ve phia clu, cac doanh nghifp can cd '-thdi quen" va ap lyc trong vifc tim kiem cac san phim mdi KHCN, de nang cao nang lyc canh franh, nSng cao hifu qua san xult kinh doanh, (iii) v i phia Nha nudc, cac chinh sach diu tu phat triin, thui - tin dyng cln khuyin khich nin kinh ti phat frien theo chigu sau, img dyng sau rpng KHCN tien tign gan vdi ddi mdi mo hinh quan hi ngay cang hieu qua.
- Md rdng cac hinh thuc hpp tac, thu hiit mpi sang kien KHCN ca d trong va ngoai nudc va mpi thanh phin kinh ti. Cac sang kiin ky thuat, ddi mdl cdng nghg cln duoc Nha nudc va xa hdi iing hd, nang do, phat friln nhim phuc vu yeu cau phat tnin dit nudc
Thu lie, phat trien doanh nghifp va ddi ngu doanh nhan cd vai trd hit sue quan trpng ddi
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Science & Technology Oevelopment, Vol IS, No Q l - 2015 vdl cdng cudc phat trifn ciia dat nudc,- bdi vi
cac DN va dpi ngii doanh nhan ia nhan vat trung tam de thuc hien myc tieu "Dan giau.
Nudc manh", Df cd cac DN manh, tnrdc het can CO cac doanh nhan cd nang lyc kmh doanh, kha nang hdi nhap vao mdi frudng toan eau va biet khai thac cac gia fri ngudn luc ciia Vift Nam, dac bigt la cac gia hi trujgn thdng, van hda dan tdc. Day cting la chia khda tao ngn su khac bigt ciia doanh nhan Vigt Nam hong hdi nhap qudc te.
Thir ndm, trong thdi gian tdi. dg nen kinh te phat trign nhanh va bgn virng. giai phap then chdt va cd y nghTa dot pha quan frpng nhit, theo chiing loi, do la day manh cai each the chg, tgo difu kign cho cac DN va ngudi dan tham gia binh ding, thuan lgi va cd hifu qua vao cdng cudc phat trien kinh te - xa hpi ciia dat nudc. Ddi mdi tu duy phat frien kinh ti - xa hpi, hoan Ihifn thi chi kinh ti thi trudng dmh hudng XHCN d Viet Nam hign nay, khdng chi la yfu cau d p thiit di tang trudng kinh ti va phat trien bgn vttng. ma con la sir menh ctia Dang ta tai Dgi hdi lln thti XII sip tdi. Thi chi kinh tg thj trudng dmh hudng XHCN mac dfi cdn tigp tuc phai nghien cuu, Iim tdi, sang tgo, song chic chin the chi nay phai hudng din muc tieu "Dan giau, nudc mgnh, xS hdi dan
chii. cdng bang, van mmh"; do phai la mpt thf che kinh tf cd kha nSng dung hgp, the chf nay
"cho piiep va khuyfn khich sy tham gia ciia dai da sd dan chiing vao cac boat ddng kinh tf, sir dung tdt nhit tai nang va trinh do cua hp, va giilp cac ca nhan thuc hien nhthig lya chpn ho mudn" (Daron Acemoglu & James A.
Robinson, 2013).
KETLU^N
Kinh ti Vift Nam da cham day tang trudng vao nam 2012 va da cd diu hifu hoi phuc tir cudi nam 2013 din nay Dy bao nam 2015, nin kinh tf Vift Nam tifp tuc phuc hdi va chi cd the lay dugc da tang hudng kha quan ttr nam 2016 hd di, nfu nfn kinh tf cd nhtmg cai each sau rdng hon va mdi trudng kinh ti thi gidi dn dinh. DCi lac quan hay than hong, thi giai phdp cdt Idl ddi vdl ngn kinh ti Viet Nam trong thdi gian tdi la phai ddi mdi md hinh ISng trudng dua trfn nang suit va hifu-qua, nang cao nang iyc canh tranh. Nhan td quyfl djnh di thyc hifn myc tigu nay ia phai cd nd lyc chung ciia ca cSc doanh nghifp va Chinh phii trong vifc phdt trifn khoa hpc cdng nghf, dua khoa hpc cdng nghe thyc sy la dpng iyc manh mg trong phat tnen kinh ti cua dit nudc, diy nhanh qua hinh CNH, HDH dua Viet Nam sdm trd thanh nudc cdng nghiep theo hudng hign dgi.
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO [1] Nguygn Tan Dung (2014). Bao cao ciia
Thli tudng ve tinh hinh kinh ti - xa hpi tgi ky hpp thu 8. Qudc hpi khda XUI http /'wmv chinhphu vn^porlal'page/poria lcl^i>ihphii'noidungiinhhinhihuchien''caie goryld^ 10000302Marticleld=10053663 [2\. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson
(2013): Tai sao cdc qudc gia ihdl bai.
NXB Tre, Trana 108
[3] Nguygn Chi Hai (2014): Nang cao nang luc canh tranh - Ygu clu d p thiit doi vdi nfn kinh tg Vifi Nam hien nay. Tap chi Phdt triin Nhdn luc, sd 04 (41); Trang 34 - 3 7 .
[4] Paul A Samuelson - William D.Nordhaus (2007) Kmh le hQC, Tap n NXB CTQG, Ha Ndi.
[5]. N Gregory Mankiw (2006): Kmh ti vl md. NXB Thing ke, Ha Npi.
[6]. Uy Ban Kinh t i cua Quoc hdi - Vien Han lam Khoa hoc Xa hgi Vift Nam - Phdng Thuong mgi va Con n h p V et Nam - UNDP (92014): D n dan K nl i& Miia Thu 2014 Tdi ca au n k nh tl Ky vpng chuyen biin manh n (Ky yeu Hpi thao).
[7]. Thdi bao Kinh ti Vift Nam (2015). Kinh te Viet Nam vd The giai 2014-2015.
[8]. Tnmg tam Nang suit Viet Nam (2003):
Do luang nang sudt tat doanh nghiep NXB Thi gi&i.
19]. Chu ky kinhti
https://voer. edu. vn'm/chu-ky-kinh- te/aab2la65.
TAP CHi PHAT TRI^N KH & CN, TAP 18, S 6 Ql - 2015 [10]. Difm lai cap nhat tinh hinh kinh te Vift
Nam.
http '\nnni(fe Morldbank.org,exiernal/de fault'!(DSContentSer\-er/nDSP/IB'2014'
12 01 '00040648420141201143505./Rend eredPDF'9282501 lETNAMEOODecQ^Ol 401'ieinamese pdf.
[ I i ] . APO Productivity Databook 2014 {http:/ inni apolokvo-orz'publicalions/eh ooks apoDroductivin'-databook-2014/
[12]. World Economic Forum- The Global Competitiveness Repon 2013-2014.
(hRp/'«uw.weforum-org'reports/global- eompetitiveness-report-2013-2014).
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