rJ ' 5 - 1 -
U'o'c iLPO'ng gia trj Markup dip thau hap ly SLP dung Phu'O'ng phap gia trj hien tai
Ngay nhan bai: 27/8/2014 Ngay su^ bai: 4/9/2014 Ngay chap nhan dang: 10/9/2014
LUcfng 0(tc Long, D^ng Phu'dc VTnh
T O M TAT
Trong qua trinh xic dinh gia dU thau, vide x i c dinh gii tri markup cho mpt dU an xay diing la phan quan trgng va kho khan nhat trong giai doan chuan bi dau thau cda nha thiu. Trong nghien citu. nay, mdt md hinh sii dung phUdng p h i p gii tri hien tai tren nen excel dUdc xay dUng de ho trO cac nha thau trong viec ifdc lifdng gia tri markup. Mo hinh nay tdp trung vao vide xac dinh gii tri markup hap ly thoa man ty suit thu Iqfi yeu cau cua nha thau vdi markup la mpt ham so vdi hai bien la ty suat thu ldi yeu cau cua nha thau va ddng tiln dil an sao cho ddng tidn quy ddi (NPV) cua du an khdng ira. PhUong phap nay quy doi cac gia tri thUc thu (dong tien vao) va thitc chi (ddng tien ra) trong qua trinh thiic hien dii an ve ciing thdi diem ban diu dd tinh toan. Mpt vi du minh hpa dUpc sir dung de chtJng minh tinh hieu qua cua mo hinh niy. Ket qua cho thay r i n g m o hinh nay tiiPng ddi ddn gidn, de sCt dung v i phu hpp vdi dieu kien thdi gian chuan bj thau rSt han che trong qua trinh chuan bj dau thau.
Tit khda: Markup, gii du thau, gia tri hien tai
ABSTRACT
In the process estimating bid value, markup estimation for a construction project is the most important parts and difficult process of the pre-bidding phase of the contractors.
In this study, a model using present value approach on excel is constructed tn order to assist contractors in making markup decision. This model focuses on the measurement of a reasonable markup value that satis5es the required rate of return of the contractor, in which markup is a function of the required rate of return and cash flow of the project so that the net present value of project is not negative. By employing this approach, income (cash inflows) and outcome (cash outflows) in the project performance process are converted into present values to be calculated. Illustrative example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of this model. The result shows that the model is not only simple and easy to be applied but also fitting with the time limited condition in pre- bidding.
Keywords: Markup, Bid, Present value
TS Lifdng Dlic Long
Chu nhiem Bp mdn Thi cong v i Quan ly xay diing - Khoa Ky thuat xay diing - Tnidng Dai hoc Bach Khoa, B ^ hpc Quoc Gia Tp. Ho Chi Minh Tel: 0937877958 - Email: [email protected].
Dang Phi^dc Vinh - Hpc vien cao hpc
Nganh QuAn Iy Xay diing - Khoa Ky thu^t xay diing - Tril6ng Dai hpc Bach Khoa, Dai hpc Quoc Gia Tp. Ho Chi Minh
Tel: 0935569783 - Email: [email protected]
1. Gidi thieu
Trong moi trirdng dau thau canh tranti khoe liet nhU hien nay, vdi miic dich la trung ttiSu nen hSu het eae edng ty xay dUng deu dUa ra gia dir thau rat canh tranh bdi vl ed qua nhieu nha thau eanh tranh eho sd lUOng cac dil an ed gidi han. Do dd eae nha thau muon tdn tai trong moi trUdng eanh tranh nhU vSy thi phSi dat iru ti&n thSng thau l^n tren ldi nhuan va nha thau bupe phiii c3t gicim gia de canh tranh [3]. Viee xac dinh gia trj markup la phan cot 161 trong giai doan ehu^n bi diiu thau [4]. Mac dii vay eae nh^ thau thUcing diia ra nnarkup tren ed sd phan doan ehCi quan, theo kinh nghi&m ma chUa lu'dng het duac e^c yeu td nil ro, ehUa cd chi^n luoc, cong cu phan tich cu the. Theo Chou va cae tac gid, vdi gia du thau eao thi khci nang trung thau se thap, khong gianh dupe hpp dong, ngupc lai vdi gia duthau thap, khei nang gianh ehien thSng eao, nhiing neu qua thap thi dnh hi/dng den tai chinh cua edng ty, ed the dan den nguy eo thua Id va pha san [81.
Trong nh&ng nghien edli lien quan den dau thau, gia du thau duoc djnh nghTa nhu hinh 1, trong do ed nhieu dinh nghTa khac nhau ve markup. Tuy theo djnh nghTa khdc nhau ma mo hinh xec dmh gid tn markup eung khae nhau, trong nghien eiiu nay dinh nghia markup la phSn tdng Ipi nhuan cCia nha thau bao gdm phan lai {profit} va khoan du phdng (contingencies), duoc tinh theo ty If phan trdm cua t6ng chi phi true tiep {direct cost) va tong chi phi gian tiep (indirect cost).
Mue dich ciia nghien eiiu nay nham phat trien md hinh sCr dung phuang phap gia tri hien tai de xae dinh markup hpp \ji thda man t^ suat thu Ipi yeu eau cOa nha thau vdi markup la mdt ham sd vdi hai bien la ty suat thu loi yeu eau cCia nha thau va ddng tien eCia dii an {tiJc lam cho NPV khong dm).
2. Tong quan
Vi&c xae dinh dUOc markup hop ly eho mdt du dn la nhiem vu quan trpng nhat ddi vdi ntia thau khi tham gia dp thau. Do do van de ude l&tJng markup hpp ly da va dang thu hut nhieu
_r I L
[ Chi phi tri/e tiep I Chi phi gian tiep J Hinh 1.Qu true gia du thiu
sii quan tdm eCia cae tac gid tren the gidi. Nhieu phu'ong phdp, mo hinh d l iSdc luong gia trj markup da dupe de xuat. (Wot each l o n g quat cac mo hinh Ude lUpng gid t n markup ed the Suae phan thanh ede nhom sau
2.1 Mo hinh xac suat thong ki N\6 hinh nay dUoe de xuat trong nghien eiiu eua Friedman [12], Gates [13], dUa tren xac suat thang thSu img vdi bat ky gia t n markup dupe de nghj, Gid tn markup tdi uU sau do diroe xac dinh la gid tri ma cd gid tri Ipi nhuan ky vong Idn nhat, trong do Ipi nhu^n l<y vong ling vdi mot gid trj markup diioc tinh bdng tieh sd cda xae sucit thang thau vcri gia tri markup do,
2.2 M6 hinh /]? thuyet tien ich da tieu chuan M6 hinh nay cd xet den nhflng yeu to khong ehSe chSn, yeu t d dmh tinh eo dnh hu6ng d i n vife ra q u y l t dinh markup. Nd diia ra mdt markup d4 nghj utig vpi gia tri tien feh ky vpng Ipn nhat tren eo sd ham tien tieh. Dikmen va cac
Gia tri cpng them [markup} J
Dg-phong rui ro
tac gia [1] phdt trien mo hinh ket hpp giiia l)i luan tren eO sis eac triidng hpp va ly thuyet tien tieh. Thong qua md hinh 1;^ luan tren c6 sd cdc trUcmg hpp de ude li/ong eac f)f !e rii\ ro, co hdl vd canh tranh thdng qua eac y l u to anh hu6ng d i n d u a n . Cae t y lg nay dWcre ehuyen hoa thanh gia tri markup theo rui ro va Ipi nhuan t h o n g qua ham tien ieh tuyen tinh theo t i i n g hoan canh tham gia dir thau. 1^6 hinh ly thuyet tien ieh n h i l u tieu chuan ciia Dozzi va cac tde gia [2] va md hinh Iv' luan dila tren trU&ng hdp cda Chua vd edc tae gia [10], mo hinh dau thau xem xet nhieu tieu ehuan dUdc phdt tnen bdi Seydel vd Olson [11] xem xet ban chat phiie tap, chii quan trong viee quyet dinh gia d i i thau, xem xet cdc yeu to Smh tinh nhir la tieu chuan dau vao va thong qua ham tien ich eo xem xet tfrng hoan canh d u t h a u de dde luang gid trj markup.
23Mah'aihtrencasds^dungtrituinhantao Tir nam 1990, nhieu mo hinh phat tnen sii
dung edng cu t r i t u | nhan tao d l gidi quyft edc van de v ^ Ude lupng gia tri markup. I>)ghien cdu cCia IWoselhi va Hegazy [5] gidi thieu mo hinh irdc lUdng markup sit d u n g phirong p t ^ Neural Networks (NNs) tren ed ede d p dn t U c ^ t d trong qua khd.
Cac m o hinh ket hop gifla Neural Networks (NNs) vd eac ky thuat phan tieh khae eung dUOc nghien eiiu va phdt tnen, dien hinh nhiJ mo hinh ciia Hegazy vdMoseihi [6]sCrdungNNsklthc(p vdi ky thudt tdi Uu giai thuat di t r u y i n (Genetic Algorithms), mo hinh eua Moslhi vaeaetdcgii [7] k i t hdp dong t h d i giQa toi du gidi thuat di truyen, NNs va ky t h u a t m d phdng Monte Carlo, Liu va Ling [4] dda ra md hinh mang Neural nhan tao tren eo sd ly thuyet Fuzzy logic - Fuzzy Neural Network (FNN) d l dde luong gia trj markup tdi du, IMarzouk [9] dda ra mo hinh Ucic luong gia tri markup bdng each tich hdp mo phdng Monte Carlo va mang Neural nhan t^o (Artificial Neural N e t w o r k - A N N ) .
2.4 Cdc mo hinh i/dc lifang markupkbdc Mo hinh dp dung ly thuyet Fuzzy logic £t^
xde dinh gia tri markup nhd nhat eiia ChaO'[3], md hinh ho t r o chien Idpe dau thau eiia Chou va cac tde gia [8] bang each dp dung phudng trinh hoi quy tuyen t i n h bpi ket hdp mo phong Monte Carlo de d u d o a n markup tdt nhat c6 khi nang thang thau.
3. PhUtmg phap nghien cClu Vdi muc dieh phat t r i l n m o hinh diic lUdflg
Bdng Cong
tde (1)
# 1
# 2
# 3
# 4
# 5
# 6
# 7
# 8
# 9
# 1 0
# 1 1
# 1 2
# 1 3
# 1 4
# 1 5
# 1 6
# 1 7
# 1 8
# 1 9
# 2 0
. DQ lieu vd tinh toan edc thong sd t i l n dp, ehi ph Tien
do (2) 4,0 5.0 4,0 3,0 4,0 9,0 7.0 6,0 3,0 8,0 5,0 3,0 8.0 5,0 3,0 8,0 3,0 14,0 5.0 7,0 Tdng
Chi phi trUc tiep
(3) 1.311.555 5.455,555 1.081,666 1.84a.888 2.100,000 3 697,777 500,555 40.442 74,788 315.055 2,343,666 3.400,000 1.302,000 519,944 2.255,444 1.377,222 721,111 409,935 5.400,000 40,416 34.196,019
C6ng tac d i ^ g trUdc
(4) 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 4 6,7 6.7 6,7 8 5,10 12,13 12.13 9 11,14,15 16 17,18.19
Cdng tac di3rng sau (5)
2,3 7,8 4.5.6 9 14 10,11.12 10,11.12 13 17 14 18 15,16 15,16 18 18 19 20 20 20
ciia cac edng tac trong Thfln ES (6}
4 4 8 8 8 9 9 11 17 17 17 15 25 23 23 14 30 31 44
EF (7) 4 9 8 11 12 17 16 15 14 25 22 20 23 30 26 31 17 44 36 51
d d a n so tien So LS (8)
5 4 35 21 8 10 13 38 17 25 24 19 25 27 31 41 30 39 44
LF (9) 4 10 8 38 25 17 17 19 41 25 30 27 27 30 30 39 44 44 44 51
TF (10) 0 1 0 27 13 0 1 4 27 0 8 7 4 0 4 8 27 0 8 0
Chi phi gian tiSp (11)
2.550* (1.311,555/34.196,019) = 97,80 2,550 * (5,455,555 / 34.196,019) = 406,82 2.550* (1.081,666/34,196,019 = 80,66 2.550 * (1.848,888 / 34,196,019) = 137,87 2 5 5 0 * (2,100,000/34.196,019) = 156,60 2 550 * [3.697,777 / 34.196,019) = 275,74 2.550 * (500,555 / 34.196,019) = 37,33 2.550 * (40,442 / 34.196,019) = 3,02 2.550 * (74,788 / 34.196,019) = 5,58 2.550 * (315.055 / 34.196,019) = 23.49 2.550 * {2.343,665 / 34 196,019) = 174,77 2.550 * (3.400,000 / 34.196,019) = 253.54 2.550 * (1 302,000 / 34.196,019) = 97,09 2.550 • (519,944/34.196,019) = 38,77 2.550* (2.255,444/34.196,019) = 168,19 2.550 * (1.377,222 / 34.196,019) = 102,70 2.550 « (721,111 / 34.196,019) = 53,77 2.550 * (409,935 / 34.196,019) = 30,57 2.550 * (5.400,00 / 34.196,019) = 402,68 2.550 • (40,416 / 34.196.019) = 3,01 2.550
Tong chi phi (12) 1.409,358 5.862,376' 1.162,326 .•
1 986,760 2 256,597 3.973,521 537,88!
43,458.
80,365 338,549 2.518,433 3 653,538 1.399,090 558,716i 2.423,633 1.479,922 774,884 440,504 5.802,678 43,430, 36.746,019
S4|BniBIBEI 10.2014
Bdng 2. Tien dp ngang va dUdng chi phi trUe tiep, gian tiep tieh luy ciia d d dn
t h a i g i a n \ t h a n g )
^ • . - " " L - ^ " . ._ •- v-r. / so ngdy eiia edng t d c j d b ^ n trdi chu k y i ' e h i phi edng tde j i - Chi p h i tieh luy =2.;=i -5 z—:—7—77-.
' t d n g so ngay cdng tae j ' vdi j l J s d I d c f n g cdng tac, j = l,2,...,n; i la chu ky thanh todn, i - 8 tuan
~ Vi d u : chl p h i trUc t i e p tich luy tai tudn thiT 8 (ehu ky dau tien) = 4 ngdy eiia cdng tac #1 * 1.311,56tri|u 7 4 ngdy + 4 ngdy ciia cdng tac #2 * 5,455,56 trieu / 5 ngdy + 4 n g e i y c i l a c 6 n g t a e # 3 * 1 . 0 8 1 , 6 7 t r i e u / 4 n g a y = 6.757,7 trieu.
m a r k u p d p d n x a y d O n g b S n g p h u a n g phdp gid Trudc het xac d j n h t d n g tien d o cua d u d n tri hien tai, nghi4n ciiU ndy t d p t r u n g vao viec vd bieu dien t h a n h tien d o n g a n g . T h o n g s d t i ^ n xae d j n h hai t h d n g so quan trpng cCia m d hinh d d cua cdc cdng tac dupe xac dinh n h u sau Id d d n g tign d p d n v a t j suat t h u loi y ^ u eau eiia - Khdi sdm (ES - Early start) eiia cong tde nhd t h ^ u ddi vdi d U a n do. i, ES, = max EF^ (EF - ket sdm ciia eae edng tde
3.1 Xde dinh ddng tien dtfdn d i i n g trdde edng tae i).
Hinh2 Sd do mang AOA ciia dUan
- Ket sdm (EF - Early finish) edng tde 1, EF, = ES^ + D. (D, - tien d d cong tde i).
- Ket m u o n (LF - Late finish) eiia cdng tac i, LF, = m m LF^ (LF^ - khdi m u o n cila cae cdng tde d i i n g sau edng tde 1),
- Khdi mudn (LS - Late start) eiia cdng tde 1,
Bdng 3 Tinh todn dong tien cua d d a n
K h o i n muc Chl p h i t r d c t i e p Chi phi gidn tiep (thUc te) Tdng chi phi Odng t i ^ n r a tich luy Chi p h i t r d c t i e p Chi phi gian tiep (thanh todn) Tong gid tri ddoe thanh toan Phangiiriai(10%) Gia trj thanh todn nhdn dddc Thdi d i l m nhdn thanh todn Gid tri tam umg, thu hoi Chi phi bdo hdnh, t h u hdi Tdng thanh todn (doanh thu) D6ng t i l n vho tich iOy Chi trdi chda cd lai sudt Lai vay (0,6% / thang) Tdng ehl troi (Overdraft)
Cu6i thang thur 0
3 674,6
3,674,6 3.674,6 3,674,6
3 674,6 2 6,757,7
400,0 7.157,7 7.157,7 6.757,7 503,9 7.261,6 726,2 6.535,4
3.674,6 3.483,1 -20,9 -3,524,9
4 9.586,2
400,0 9.986,2 17.143,9 9.586,2 714.8 10.301,0 1,030,1 9.270,9 6.535,4
6.535,4 10.210,0 -6.975,6 -83,7 -7.059,3
6 8.733,8
400,0 9.133,8 26.277,6 8,733,8 651,3 9.385,1 938,5 8.446,6 9.270,9 -1.837,3
7.433,6 17.643,7 -8 759,5"
-105,1 -8.864,6
S 4.406,6
400,0 4,806,6 31.084,2 4.406,6 328,6 4.735,2 473,5 4,261,7 8 446,6 -1.837,3
6,609,3 24.252,9 -7,061,9 -84,7 -7,146,7
10 4.554,2
400,0 4.954,2 36.038,5 4.554,2 339,6 4.893,9 489.4 4.404,5 4 261,7
4,261,7 28.514,6 -7.839,3 -94,1 -7.933,3
1 2 140,2 400,0 540,2 36.578,7 140,2 10.5 150,7 15,1 135,6 4,404,5
4,404,5 32.919,1 -4.069,1 -48,8 -4.117,9
1 3 17,3 150,0 167,3 36.746,0 17,3 1,3 18,6 1,9 16,8
32.919,1
^ . 2 8 5 , 2 -51,4
^ , 3 3 6 , 6 14
36.746,0
3.674,6 3.827,0
-1 837,3 1.989,7 34.908,7 -2.347,0 -28,2 -2 375,1
36.746,0
34.908,7 25
36.74«,l)
1.83?,1 1.8373 36.740
Gia tri ehi trdi tai tdng ehu ky ddOc tinh theo hai cdch sau-
= tdng ehl troi d chu ky trddc - chi phi ehu ky nay + thanh todn nhan ddoe trong ky ndy hoac = chi phi tich luy ky nay + tdng Idi vay den het ky trUpc + thanh toan tieh luy nhan dUoe trong ky ndy Vi duiTai cudi ky thir 3 (eudi thang thQ 6), gia tri ehi trdi = -7,059,3 - 9 133,8 + 7,433,6 = -8,759,5
hodc =-26.277,6 + (-41,8-83,7) +17.643,7 ==-8,759,5 Bdng 4. Tinh toan markup eiia d d d n
Khodn muc H e s d e h i l t khau (r=l,6%/thanq) Dong tien ra Tong chi phi Chl phi lai vay Tong ehl phi + lai vay Gid tn quy ve hien tai Ddng tien vao Gia tri nhan ddde Gia tf 1 quy ve hien tai
Markup
Cuoi thang thiJr 0
1,00
3.674,6 3.674,6
2 0,94
7.157,7 20,9 7,199,5 6 974,5
4 0,88
9.986,2 83,7 10,069,9 9.450,4
6.535,4 6.133,4
6 0,83
9133,8 105,1 9.238,9 8.399,6
7.433,6 6.758,3
8 0,78
4.806,6 84,7 4.891,3 4.308,0
6 609,3 5,821,1
10 0,73
4,954,2 94,1 5 048,3 4 307,3
4,261,7 3,636,2
12 0,68
540,2 48,8 589,0 486,9
4,404,5 3,640,6
13 0,66
167.3 51,4 218,7 178,0
14 0,64
28,2 28,2 22,6
1.989,7 1.593,2
25 0,45
1.837,3 1.235,5
Tong
36,746^ S15i 37.261.1 34.105:1
36.746,( 32.49y 4,96%
L S = LF - D ,
- Dp t r d toan phan (TF - Total Float) cua cdng tae i: TF, = LF, - EF, = LS, - ES,.
- Cdng tac ndm tren dddng gang la cong tac ed d d t r d toan phan TF = 0,
Tiep do dda vdo khoi Idong tirng cong tac, miic hao phi, gid vdt lieu, nhan cdng, mdy, ddn gia eiia thau phu ( n l u eo) vd trde t i l p phi khae de xde dinh ehi phi trde tiep cua tQng cdng tac Ngoai ra dda vao dinh mQe nhd thau ve ebi phi
van phong, qudn ly, Idong can bo tham gia d d dn va tong tien dp d p an de xae dmh t o n g chi phi gidn tiep eiia d d an. tir do xde djnh ddpe ehl phi gian tiep tiing edng tae DUa vao tien do ngang xae dmh ddpe tong chi phi can thiet va tdng gia tri ddpe thanh toan theo t i l n g tuan (theo mo hinh nay thi tong gid t n thanh todn ehua CO markup ehinh bang tong chi phi eua d u an),
Tinh toan dong tien cua d d dn, dUa vao ehi
p h i cua d d dn theo t d n g tuan tir do xicSl*
dupe t d n g chi p h i theo t i l n g chu kj* va chip'' tieh luy cua d d a n (ehua eo Idi suat vay vdnl-^
eanh do dua vao ede chinh sach thanh H*
phan giCr lai, chu ky thanh toan ede tt*<
tin lien quan khae t h o n g qua eac cong tiii*
t d o n g t u eiia chii ddu t u hodc trong cicM d o n g t d o n g t d de xac dinh ddoe gia tn iW toan theo itrng chu ky vd t o n g thanh toSnft i u y e u a d d d n . T u u o x , . . . ' , - , h duoe gia tfichiP
5 sGfitmKiisi 10.2014
Bdng 5. NPV eua d y dn v6i gid trj markup tdOng ling vdi suat t h u Ipi yeu eau 1.6% / thdng Markup (%}
NPV t d o n g ling 4,96
0,0 5,00 107,6
6.00 7.00 8,00 449/4 788,6 1.126,7
9,00 1.464,9
10,00 1.803,1
11,0 2.141,2
12,0 2.479,2
phan kinh p h i nhd thau phdi t u b d ra) d e thue H&n d u d n t h e o tien dd. Co ddpe gia trj ehi trdi gid dinh nha thau vay von dng vdi gid trj ehi trdt
!6) xde d m h ddpe Idi vay trong qua trinh thpe nen d u d n
3.2 Xac dinh tf suat thu lai yeu cdu iRequired Rate of Return - RRR)
Tysu^t t h u Ipi yeu e l u eiia nhd thau Id phan Kl nhuan ma nhd thdu m o n g mudn cd dddc t d p a n . Ty suat nay dupe xde dinh bUng each dda ao ede yeu to thj trUdng n h d ldi suat gCri tiet lem, t;^ 1^ lam phat, ldi suat vay von eho d d an, nh hinh thi t r d d n g , hoac y kien eCia ngddi ra j u y l t djnh.
3.3 Mc /lAAig gid tri markup hop ly Sd d u n g p h u o n g phap gid trj hien tai 34 uy ddng t i l n vdo vd ddng tien ra v l ciing thdi lem vdi suat chiet khSu la t y suat t h u Idi yeu
^ u cCia nha thdu (RRR), dong t h d i edng them han markup trong d d n g tien vao vd thiet lap Id tri hi^n tai rong (NPV) eCia d p dn bSng 0. Ta jphucJng trinh;
NPV (RRR, t h d i gian thde hien d d d n ) = (1+%
' a r k u p ) * N P V , ^ ^ , ^ - N P V ^ „ ^ „ = 0 N P V ^ ^ „
= hodc % markup = i NPVp^^„^^,__
s 4 . V ( d u ^ p d u n g
Xem x^t vi du m d t d d dn vdi 20 edng tac the ' e n trong hinh 2. Di^lieu eiia mdi edng tac, mdi - j a n he cCia cdc cdng tde va ehi phi trde tiep eiia i|6icdng tac ddpe the hi&n trang bdng 1.
i -Tong tien dp ctia d d d n Id 51 tuan. Don vi i h : tri&u d o n g
- Tong chi p h i gidn t i l p = T6ng tien do * .1 gidn t i ^ p hang t u I n = 51 (tuan) * 50(trieu) = ijSO (trieu)
! - Chi p h i gidn t i l p cong tae i = t d n g ehi phi - ^ (chi p h i t n j e tiep cdng tac i)
^ " ^'^'^ * (t6ng chi p h r t r p e tiep) , * C a c t h d n g s d c i ! i a d U a n ; ' - C h u k y t h a n h t o a n : 2 t h a n g / l a n
- Phan giijr lai mdi lan thanh todn: 10%
I -Tam d n g : 1 0 % g i d h p p d d n g - Thu hdi tam irng bSt dau khi thanh toan ' t 20% vd ket thOc khi dat 80% gia h p p ddng '' - C h i p h i bao hanh: 5% gia hop d d n g . ' -Thdi gian bao hdnh: 12 thang.
' - B6 qua t y i e lam phat trong nam.
' - Lai s u i t vay 7,2%/nam, uTig vdi 0,6%/thang
• - T y s u a t t h u M yeu cdu: 1,6%/thdng - Chl p h i gian t i e p : 50 trieu/tuan.
' - M d t so gia ^ n h nhU sau: gid h p p ddng ' t i n h toan t a m i)ng, chi p h i bao hanh, lai vay il
la t o n g ehi phi (true tiep + gian tiep) khi chda CO markup, Hpp dong quy d m h sau hai thang thanh toan 1 lan, va do nhieu yeu t d khac nhau nha thau chi nhdn ddpe thanh toan thUe te sau 2 thdng ke t d liic nha thau gift d l nghi thanh toan, ehi xem xet vay vdn va tinh toan lai vay t r o n g q u d trinh thde hien d d a n .
- Gid tri gid lai 10% dUoc hodn trd vdo dcrt thanh toan eudi ciing.
5. Ket qu^
Dda vao ehi phi trdc tiep va gidn t i l p theo chu ky ciia d d an, xae d m h ddng tien ra va vao tieh luy, gid trj chi trdi, ldi vay eiia dU an the hien trong bdng 3. Biet dupe ldi vay can t h i l t giup xac d m h ehinh xae ddng tien ra (tdng ehi phi edng ldi vay) va ddng t i l n vdo (gid trj ddpe thanh toan). Quy doi hai ddng tien ve eiing thdi diem hien tai, tir dd xde dinh ddpe gia tri markup (bdng 4)
NPV„„,Bin,^ _ _ 34.105,4 32.492,8 Markup
= 0,0496 = 4,96%
Gia d d thau tdi thieu chap nhan ddpe = tong chi phi • (1+ markup) = 36 746,0 * {1+4,96%) = 38.569,8 trieu {Id gid tdi thieu thda man ty suat thu Ipi yeu eau 1,6%/thang eiia nha th3u)
Can cii'vdo gia t n markup dd xde d m h (gia tri nhd nhat thda man ty suat t h u loi yeu eau) nha thau CO cd sd d l dda ra quyet d m h ede gia t n markup khac nhau theo loi nhuan mong mudn eiia minh, (Ing vdi eae gia tri markup khde nhau, l a i v a y t r o n g q u a t r l n h t h d e h i e n d d a n thay ddi, gid trj NPV ciia d d a n (Ipi nhuan that ciia d d d n ] ling vdi eac gia trj markup khdc nhau the hien trong bang sau.
6. Ket luan
Xac dinh gid tn markup va gid d d thdu hop 1;^ eiia d d an dupe xem la mdt trong nhdng van de phdc tap vd quan trpng nhdt ma eae nha thdu phai ddi mat khi tham gia d d thdu. Nghien CLiu tren da gidi thieu md hinh sir dung phuong phap gia t n hien tai de dde Idpng markup cua d u dn, hd t r o nha thau trong viee dua ra quyet djnh gia trj markup ed cer sd han thay vi dda tren kinh nghidm, trdc glde va ehii quan ca nhan ngddi ra q u y l t djnh. Md hinh tren chdng minh rang markup eiia d d an la m d t hdm ciia hai bien t y suat t h u Ipi yeu eau eiia nhd thau va ddng t i l n eiia d p an va ket qua la gia tri markup nhd nhat thda man t y suat thu Ipi yeu eau ciia nha thau. Bdng each dda vao ddng tien eOa d p an nen m d hinh cd xem xet gia trj thdi gian ciia ddng tien.Tirgia trj markup t i m dupe, nhd thau ed CO s6 de dUa ra quyet d m h ve markup cudi
ciing t i i y vao hoan cdnh, t i n h hinh thj trddng vd Idi nhudn mong mudn eua edng t y
Mae dil md hinh tren chirng t d n h i l u du diem khi dde Idong gid tri markup, n h d n g nd van edn t d n tai mdt sd han ehe n h d chda xem xet khd nang thang thau ung vdi gid tri markup dd n h d the ndo va eae bien phap de cdi thifen ddng tien ciia d d an hpp ly hon tir d d cd the gidm gid t n markup de tang khd ndng canh tranh nhUng van dam bdo loi nhuan m o n g m u d n eiia nha thau.
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