V I | T NAM - cAl CACH VA H^l NHAP
Sa hCpu niFO'C ngoai tac dong den hieu qua hoat dong cua cac cong ty niem yet tren thj tru'O'ng chipng khoan Viet Nam
TS. NGUYEN MINH HA
ThS, NGUYEN THANH DUY PHUONG"
Nghien cdu ndy phdn tich dnh hu&ng cua s& hOu nuac ngodi den hieu qud hogt ddng cua doanh nghiep. Sd lieu dugc sir dung Id 185 doanh nghiep niim yet tren Sdn chung khodn Thdnh phd Hd Chi Minh (TP. HCM) tit ndm 2007 din nam 2009, v&i 436 quan sdt. Su dung phuang phdp phdn lich thdng ke vd phdn tich hdi quy, ket qud nghien cuu cho thdy sa hOu cua cd ddng nudc ngodi cd dnh huang den den hiiu qud hogt ddng cita doanh nghiep. cu the: ty le ndy cdng cao thi mirc do ldc ddng edng lan den hieu qud hogt dpng, vd v&i litng mue ty li s& hOu nu&c ngodi khdng co y nghia thdng ke din ROE nhung co tdc dongy nghia vd cung chieu den ROA. Ngodi ra, cdc yeu to tdc ddng den hiiu qud hogt ddng cita doanh nghiep nhu: ty li ng tren tdng tdi stin ldc ddng nghich chieu. quy md doanh nghiep tdc dgng citng chiiu. Riing yiu Id ngdnh nghe thi tdc ddng khdng ro rdng din ROE nhung tdc dongy nghTa den ROA.
Tir khda: S& huu nuac ngodi. hiiu qud hogt dpng, ROE, ROA, Ddu tu gidn tiep nu&c ngodi, FIL
T
rong boi canh loan cau hoa va hoi nhap dau tu den cae nha dau tir ca nhan nh6 le... da quoc le, quan tri doanh nghiep noi Iam cho van de quan Iri ciia cac cong ty niem chung va nang cao hieu qua boat dong yet Viet Nam ngay cang tra nen quan trong va doanh nghiep noi rieng ngay cang lrd thanh van cap thiet ban bao gid hit.da thai sir cua hku hk cac qu6c gia tren the gioi, yiet Nam da co mot s6 thay d6i trong ehinh nham tang cirong kha nSng canh tranh cua he ^^ch cung nhir thirc 16 vk ca c4u c6 phin giiJa thong doanh nghiep va nen kinh te. 6 Viet n5i bs va cong chung ben ngoai sau c6 ph^n Nam, ciing sir phat trien nhanh chong cua nin hoa. Gin day, do nhan thirc dirac y nghla va kinh te, dac biel la sir ra ddi cua thi tnidng thm quan trpng ciia cac nha ddu tu ben ngoai chimg khoan ciing vdi viec len san, tang von ben canh s6 c6 ph4n nba nudc c4n giir, s6 e6 dieu Ie, phat hanh them co phan ciia cac cdng ty phan danh de ban uu dai cho ngudi lao dpng va va sir gdp mat ngay cang nhieu cac nha dau tu cho cac nha san xual va cung cap nguyen lieu nudc ngoai - lir cac dinh che tai chinh, cac quy Iruyen thdng. Han nOa trong thdi gian gan day, ly le sd huu ciia nha dau lu nudc ngoai cung
•Trucmg Dai hpcM* Thinh ph6H6 Ch, Minh l ^ ^ . ^ T " ! ' ' ' ' ^ ' / T r n t ' l f TK " " ^ ^ " " ^
"CSag.y-i-hanhBlhh len tir 30% den 49%. Trong nhan thuc ciia cpng
„ „ : l^hOng vin ai KINH it VA CHiNH TR! THE Gl(5f| S4 4(204) 2013
Nguyfen Minh Ha - Nguyin Thanh Duy Phiro'ng Sd hCpu nu'de ngoai tac dong den hieu qua...
dong doanh nhan va cac chuyen gia kinh te thi yeu to sd hiru nudc ngoai cd anh budng tich cue den ket qua boat dpng ciia doanb nghiep. Tren the gidi, ngudn v6n d i u tu nudc ngoai ngay cang giu- vai tro quan trpng doi vai sy phat trien cua moi qudc gia. Ddi vdi Viet Nam, iheo Thdi bao Tai chinh (2004), thu hiit ngudn vdn dau tu gian tiep nudc ngoai (FII) cd mdt y nghTa rit quan trpng. Viec tham gia eua cac nha diu tu FII se CO tac dpng manh me den thj trudng tai chinh, giiip cho thi trudng lai chinh minh bach va hoat dpng hieu qua ban, xae lap gia In thj trudng ciia cac cd phieu niem yh mpt each chuyen nghiep, va gop phan giai quySl mpt each CO ban cac mdi quan he kinh t8 (vdn, cdng nghe, quan ly...). Han niJa, FII co the giup v6n cho doanh nghiep trong nudc, giup doanh nghiep lang trudng va nang cao nang lyc canh tranh, do vay FII rat quan trpng ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep trong nudc dang thieu vdn. Tuy nhien, ddng vdn FII cung tiem an nhirng nii ro hon so vdi cac kenh huy dpng vdn tir nudc ngoai khde. Do vay, thuc day Ihu hut Fll dn dinh, tuong xung vdi tiem nang, gop phan lao dpng lyc phat trien Ihi trudng vdn, nang cao nang luc quan trj ciia nha doanh ngbiep va nen kinh te Viet Nam ihdi ky hau WTO la van de cin duac quan tam. Vi vay, rat can nghien cim, phan tich va thao luan sau sac hon ve van de nay. Nghien euu tap trung vao giai quyel lac ddng cua co ddng nudc ngoai len hieu qua boat dpng ciia cac cdng ty cd pban nham ggi y mot so chinh sach lien quan de quan ly sd him nudc ngoai d cac cdng ty cd phan lai Viel Nam, gop phan tang hieu qua boat dpng cua doanh nghiep.
Nghien cuu nay duoc lien hanh tren cac doanh nghiep cd phan bda niem yet tren San chung khoan Thanh Phd H6 Chi Minh (HOSE) trudc nSm 2009, ky nghien ciru la 03 nam (2007 - 2009). K6t cau ciia nghien euu bao gdm: Co sd ly thuyet; Md hinh nghien euu va ngudn dii li?u; Phan ticb ket qua nghien cim; Ket luan va khuyen nghi chinh sach.
1. C f f s d l y thuyet
Ngudn von dau tu gian tiep cd nhting tac dpng tich cyc ldi cac nudc dang phal triln nhu
FII gdp phan lam tang von tren thj Irudng vdn npi dja va Iam giam chi phi v6n thdng qua viec da dang hoa riii ro; thiic day sy phal trien ciia he ihdng tai ehinh ndi dja: giiip cac doanh nghiep Irong nudc hoat ddng hieu qua hem \ a nang cao gia trj cua minh bang nhieu each nhu md rdng ihi trudng, nang cao uy tin, chuyen giao cdng nghe, nang cao giam sat, quan trj...: ihuc diy cai each the che va nang cao ky lual d6i vdi cac chinh sach ciia chinh phii. Ben canh do, cin chii y sy gia tang manh me ciia dong vdn FII se khien cho nen kinh te de roi vao tinh irang phat irien qua ndng (kinh te bong bdng) vdi nhimg dac trung ca ban la ty gia hoi doai danh nghia hoac lam phat gia lang... (Nguyen Hong San, 2004 va Nguyen Son, 2011).
Thuyet co cau sd hiru (Jensen va Meckling, 1976) cho rang, neu ngudi chu quan ly doanh nghiep ciia chinh minh tbi cac quyel dinh dupc dua ra nham toi da hda ihoa dung cua chinh hp.
Cac quyel dinh quan ly khdng chi mang Iai Ipi ieh ve lai chinh ma cdn mang lai nhimg lpi ich phi lai chinh khae. Sy ket hpp loi uu giu:a loi ich tai chinb va phi lai chinh ciia nha quan ly dat duac khi lpi ich bien co dupc lir mpl don vi chi phi Ira them ihi bang vdi moi don vj Ipi ich phi tai chinh va bang vdi mirc ihda dung bien c6 dupc lir mdt don vi chi phi sau thue.
Ly thuyet danh ddi (Irade-off theory) dupc Donald Campbell va Jerry Kelly dua ra nam 1994, ly giai tai sao doanh nghiep lai trp mpt phan bang na vay va mdt phan bang von chii sd hihi. Ly do ldn khien doanh nghiep khdng tai trp hoan loan bang np vay la vi, ben canh lpi ich cua lim chan thue lir no, viec tai trp bang np ciing phat sinh nhieu chi phi, dien hinh nhai la chi phi khd khan tai chinh bao gom chi phi true tiep va chi phi gian tiep. Lpi ich lir tam chan thul se dugc bii trir do phat sinh chi phi khd khan tai chinb.
DSi vdi Thuyet co cau sd hiru ldi uu, nhieu nghien ciru da cung cap cac bang chiing ve moi quan he giira co cau sd hihi va kel qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghiep. Theo Jensen va Warner (1988), tdn lai moi quan he cd y nghTa gitra co NhOng vin dd KINH T^ VA CHJNH TRj TH^ Giai So 4(204): ",71-
s d hOu nudc ngoai tac dpng J^n hi^u qua.. NguySn Minh Ha - Nguyfen Thdnh Duy Phugng^
cau sd hiiu va ket qua boat ddng cua doanh ngbiep. Ddng thdi. Hill va Snell (1989) cijng chi ra rang mdt cdng ty cd ca cau sd hiJu tap trung cao cd ket qua kinh doanh vupt trpi.
Hieu qua boat dpng cua cdng ty cd phan dupe do ludng bang nhieu chi tieu khdc nhau.
Hull (2008) dua ra 3 lieu chi do ludng hieu qua boat dpng la hieu qua tai ehinh (t^ sual loi nhuan tren vdn dau tu, ty suat Ipi nhuan tren doanb thu, ty suit Ipi nhuan tren tdng tdi san, ly suit lgi nhuan tren von chii sd huu, Ipi nhuan bien, thu nhap cd phan ihudng, thi gia cd phieu, tang trudng doanh thu va Tobin's Q); hieu qua kinh doanh (thj phin, tin suat gidi thieu san pham mdi va sang che, chit lupng hang hoa/dich vu, nang suat lao dpng, mirc dp hai ldng va duy tri lyc luong lao dpng), hoac hieu qua tong hop (uy tin, kha nang tdn t^i, miic dp d^t dupc mue tieu, so sanh vdi doi thu canh tranh. Theo Doan Ngpc Phi Anh (2010) va Truang Ba Thanh (2001), hieu qua lai chinh trong cdc nghien ciiu khoa hpc thudng dupc do ludng thdng qua cae tiep can sau: tiep can thi trudng dya tren ROI; tiep can tir bao cao tai cbinh dya tren ROE, ROA; va tiep can ket hop dya tren chi lieu Tobin's Q hoac ty sd thj gia/gia sd sach.
Mdi quan be giiia sd hiiu nude ngoai va bieu qud doanh nghiep duac mpt so tdc gid nudc ngodi nghien ciru va dua ra kel luan: i) Khdng cd moi tucmg quan giira ty lp sd hihi nudc ngoai vd hipu qua boat dpng cua doanh nghiep: Xu va Wang (1999); Qi vd cac tdc gid (ctg) (2000) nghien cuu tren thj dnxdng Trung Quoc; Aitken va Harrison (1999) d Venezuela; Gonenc (2006) d Thd Nhi Ky; va Kim va Lyn (1990) ii) cdc nghien ciiu tim thay tac dpng ciia sdhihi nudc ngodi den hieu qud boat dpng cua doanh nghip nhu Nurhan vd ctg (2007) va Gunduz va Tatoglu (2003) d Thd NhT Ky; Goethals va Ooghe (1997) d Bi; Alan va Steve (2005) d Anh; Piscitello vd Rabbiosi (2005) d Y; Douma vd ctg (2003) An Dp; vd Olga (2009) d Ukraina.
Hien tai, nghien ciiu tuang hi trudc day tai Viet Nam chua nhieu.
2. Mo hinh va dir lieu nghien cihi 2,1. Mo hinh nghien cuu
Tir cdc mo hinb nghien ciiu cua Olga (2009), Nurhan va ctg (2007), Khawar (2003), Douma (2003), Gunduz (2003)..., nghien ciiu cd md hinh de xuat nhu sau:
RO A/ROE = po + piFC + P2L+ P4S +p5Age + peSector + e
Trong do:
o ROA Id lgi nhuan rdng tren tdng tai sdn;
va ROE Id Ipi nhuan rdng tren vdn chii sd hihi.
o PC: Ty Ie sd hiiu nudc ngodi, dugc do bang sd cd phan do nhd dau tu nudc ngoai nim giii trong long so ed phan eiia cdng ty. FC dugc ky vpng cd tdc dpng tich cyc (dau duang) din hieu qua hoat dpng cua doanh ngbiep, tiic Id ty Ie sd hihi cua nha dau tu nude ngoai cdng cao thi hieu qua boat dpng cua doanh nghipp cdng ldn. Chi tieu nay dugc su dung bdi Olga (2009), Nurhan vd ctg (2007), Goethals va ctg (1997), Khawar (2003), Douma (2003), Gunduz (2003), Isik (2004) va Akimova (2004). Ben cgnh d6, de thay dugc timg miie ty le sd hiiu vdn cua nhd dau tu nude ngoai den bieu qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghipp, nghien ciiu phan chia miic ty Ip sd hChi cua nhd dau tu nudc ngodi thdnh 4 cap dp theo miic ty le, cu the:
FCl Id khi 0% < - FC < 10%. FCI nhan gid trj Id I neu FC tir 0% den 10% vd ngupc lgi nhan gia trj la 0.
FC2 la khi 10% < - FC < 20%. FC2 nhan gia tri Id I nlu FC hi 10% din 20% vd ngugc Iai nhan gia tri la 0.
• FC3 la khi 20% < = FC < 30%. FC3 nhan gid trj la 1 nlu FC tir 20% din 30% vd ngugc lai nhan gid tri Id 0.
• FC4 Id khi 30% < = FC < 50%. FC4 nhan gia tri Id 1 nlu FC tir 30% din 50% va ngugc lai nhgn gid trj Id 0.
o L: Ng tren tong tdi sdn: Theo ly thuylt ddnh ddi (trade-off), gia trj doanh nghiep luc diu
-NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR] THt Gi6l Sd 4(204) 2013
Nguygn Minh Hd - Nguyfin Thdnh Duy Phuang So- hCfu nLFdc ngodi tdc dpng ddn hi^u qua...
cd moi quan he duong vdi ty Ie ng cdng ty (cau tnic von), nhimg khi ciu tnic v6n tang vugt mpt ngudng ndo dd thi hipu qud hoat dpng cd mdi quan hp am vdi cau tnic von. Nlu doanh nghiep cii tiep tyc gia tdng ty so ng, dii liic dd nd se tdc dpng ngugc lai ddi vdi hieu qua hoat dpng, tiic moi quan hp giQ:a hipu qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghipp vdi ty le ng tren tdng tdi sdn (L) Id phi tuyen tinh. Chi ti6u ndy da dugc sir dung bdi Kester (1986), Gleason vd-ctg (2000), Simeriy vd Li (2000), Booth (2001), vd Ibrahim (2009).
0 S: Doanh thu cdng ty: Biln nay dupc liy logarith (LnS). Ky vpng chi tieu quy md doanh nghipp s5 cd quan hp cung chieu mang diu (+) vdi hieu qud hoat dpng, khi doanh nghiep cang ldn dli cd hipu qud hoat dpng cdng cao. Olga (2009), Booth vd ctg (2001), Chen (2004), Deesomsak vd ctg (2004), Huang va Song (2006), Karadeniz vd ctg (2009) va Chakraborty (2010) da siir dyng cbi tieu ndy khi xem xet tac dpng ciia quy md den hipu qud hogt dpng ciia doanh nghiep.
o Age: Tuoi doanh nghipp tinh tir thai diem doanh nghipp dugc niem yet Iren san den ndm goc Iam he quy chieu: Ky vpng tudi ddi cua doanh nghipp cdng cao hay lau ddi thi hieu qud hogt dpng cung tSng cao theo kinh nghiem hogt dpng nen dau ciia chi lieu s6 mang dau duang (+) cimg chieu so vdi hieu qua lai ehinh.
o Sector: Khu vyc nganh nghe ma doanh nghipp hogt dpng. Nghien ciru thye hipn phan chia 3 ITnh vyc: ndng nghiep (SectorI), cdng nghipp (Sector2) vd djch vu (Sector3).
• Sectorl = 1 nlu doanh nghiep boat dpng trong ngdnh ndng nghiep; ngugc lai Sectorl = 0.
• Sector2 = 1 neu doanh nghiep hoai dpng trong ngdnh cdng nghipp; ngugc Iai Sector2 = 0.
Seetor3 = 1 neu doanb nghipp hoat dpng trong ngdnh dich vu; ngupc lai Sector3 ^ 0.
o Year: Ndm thye hien. Do chuoi thdi gian trong kinh te cd dnh hudng ro rpt Ien hieu qud tdi chinh, vgy tinh hinh kinh tl vT md tdt, xau, thugn Igi hay khd khdn s6 tdc dpng din kit qud. Biln gid ndm thyc hien (Yearl la nam
2007, Year2 la nam 2008, Year3 la ndm 2009) dua vao cd nhim muc dich nay: xem xet su tac ddng cua tinh hinh kinh tl nam thyc hien Ign ket qua mo hinh.
2,2. Dit lieu nghien ctiu
Ngudn dir lieu dugc sii dung trong nghien Cliu nay Id dir lieu thii cip, thdng tin chii ylu Id cac bdo cao ldi chinh, ban cdo bach niem yIt, bdn cao bach phat hdnh lan diu hoac ban edo bach phdt bdnh them dugc thu thap hi trang mang ciia HOSE, trang mang cua doanh nghiep va nien giam doanh nghiep niem yet. Nghien Cliu ndy khdng tinh cdc ngan hang, cong ly chimg khoan, cdng ty tdi cbinh, quy diu tu vi nhirng cdng ty do cd dac Ihii kinh doanh rieng vd cau tnic tai chinh eung khdc biet so vdi cac doanh ngbiep dau tu, sdn xuat kinh doanh thong thudng. Ngodi ra, sd lieu dugc dimg cho nghien Cliu ndy Id sd lieu d dang bang can ddi, kel hgp giiia dir lieu cheo va dir lieu chudi thdi gian tir 2007 den 2009. Dong thdi, nhimg cdng ty ndo cd nam tai chinh khdng ket thuc vdo ngay 31 thang 12 bang nSm cung khdng dupc dua vdo.
Ben canh do, nhihig cdng ly nao vi pham cae quy dinh vdi HOSE trong viec cdng bd bao cao lai cbinb hodc bi dinh chi trong qud trinh giao djch thi cung bi loai bd. Nbu vay, sau khi dp dung cdc dieu kien tren de loai bd cac doanh nghiep md nghien ciiu nay khdng quan tam, kel qua thu dugc Id 185 cdng ly, vd 436 quan sal trong 3 ndm.
3. Phuong phap nghien cihi
Nghien cim nay sir dung phuang phdp djnh lugng. Cu the: Dya vdo phan tich 4 md binh xir ly du lieu bdng la md binh bdi quy Pool, md hinh hdi quy binh phuong toi thieu ed sir dung bien gia, mo hinh hoi quy tac dpng ed dinh va mo hinh hdi quy tac dpng nglu nhien, nghien cihi nay lya chgn md hinh xir ly dir lieu bang vdi cac biln gid la ndm vi nbirng ddc irung sau: i) Du lieu bdng khdng can bang do khach quan nen cd nhiing doanh nghiep liy 1 nam quan sat hay 2 hoac 3 nam quan sat. ii) Cac doanh nghiep d nhilu ITnh vuc khdc nhau nhu ndng nghiep, cdng
NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHiNH TR] THt Gldl SA 4(204) 2013- 73
Sd hOu nudc ngodi tdc dpng J^n hipu qua... Nguyfin Minh Hd - Nguyfen Thanh Duy^h"ggg.
ngbiep hay dich vu. Chinh vi the, nghien ciiu ndy se dp dung mo hinh hdi quy binh phucmg toi thieu cd sir dung bien gia (LSDV) la ndm vd ngdnh nghe. Theo Gujarat! va Porter (2004), md binh hoi quy binh phuong tdi thieu ed sir dung bien gia (LSDV) va md hinh bdi quy tdc dpng cd dinh (FEM) cd cimg y nghTa, nghTa la khdng bd qua cac anh hudng theo thdi gian va khdng gian hay ndi cdch khdc tung dp gde ciia moi don vj cheo thay ddi dupc nhung van gid dinh dp ddc CO djnh doi vdi timg bien. Ket qud he so hdi quy cua md hinh hdi quy binh phuong toi thieu ed sii dung bien gid vd md hinh hoi quy tac dpng cd dinh (FEM) Id khdng ddi.
4. Phan tich ket qua nghien cihi 4.1. Phan tich thong ke mo td
' Trong Bang 1 cho thay, ty le sd hiiu nudc ngodi (FC) cua cdc doanh nghiep dugc quan sat
Bdng 1: Bang mo ta thong k8 cdc bien
ndm trong khodng 0% din 49% va trung binh Id 16,11%. Ty le toi da ndy phii hgp vdi quy djnh ciia Viet Nam. Tbeo diendandautu.vn, tir ndm 2003 trd di, ddng von FII vdo Viet Nam mdi thye sy dugc xem Id phuc hdi va ngay cdng tang len cimg vdi vice mdi trudng dau tu dugc cdi thien; cimg vdi dd la sy ra ddi ciia hai trung tam giao dich chiing khodn d TP.HCM va Hd Npi ciing nhu chii truong va quyet tdm ciia Chinh phu trong viec day mgnh cd phan hda cac doanb ngbiep nbd nudc ldn va nang ty Ip ndm gilt cd phan ciia cdc doanh nghiep nudc ngodi trong cdc doanb ngbiep dugc cd phan hda tur 30% len 49%. Tuy vay, diu tu gidn tiep nudc ngodi FII tai Viet Nam dang chiem con s6 khiem tdn 2% (binh quan tir 2006 - 2012) trong tdng vdn dau tu nudc ngodi (so vdi 10 - 15%
cua cac nudc trong khu vyc).
ROE ROA FC (Ty le so hOu nuac ngoai)
FCl (khiFC<10%) FC2 (Khi 10% <= FC < 20%) FC3 (Khi 20% <= FC < 30%) FC4 (Khi 30% <= FC < 50%) L (Ty !? ng tren long tai san) LnS (Quy mo doanh nghiep) Age (Tuoi doanh nghidp)
Sectorl (Nganh nong nghi?p) Sector2 (Nganh cong nghiep) Sector3 (Nganh dich vu)
Yearl (NSm 2007) Year2 (NSm 2008) Year3 (NSm 2009)
So quan sat 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436 436
Gia tri nho nhat
-.60 -.31 .00 0 0 0 0 .01 7.50
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gia tri Ion nhat
.70 .52 .49 I 1 1 1 .91 16.70
10 1 1 1 1 1 I
Gia tri trung binh
.157 .086 .161 .468 .184 .133 .216 .450 13.323
1.931 .021 .711 .268 .252 .323 .424
D9 lech chuan
.156 .088 .152 .499 .388 .340 .412 .210 1.122 1.976
.142 • .454 .444 .435 .468 .495 Nguon: Ket qud truy sudt tic SPSS.
-NhOng vin ai KINH Tt VA CHiNH TR| THE Giin S4 4(204) 2013
Nguyfin Minh Hd - Nguyin Thdnh Duy Phuang Sd h&u nudc ngodi tdc dpng ddn hieu qua..
ROA ciia cdc doanh nghiep duoc quan sdt ndm trong khoang -31,10% din 52% va trung binh Id 8,61%. ROE ciia cdc doanh nghiep dugc quan sdt ndm trong khodng -60% den 70% vd trung binh Id 15,71%. ROE trung binh cao hem vd chenh lech nhieu ban so vdi ROA trung binh. Neu so sdnh ROA vd ROE tmng binh vdi ldi suit binh quan ciing ky eua ngan hang thuang mai 2007 - 2009 (khoang 16%/nam) thi ty Ip ndy van chua eao.
Ty lp ng tren tdng tdi san (L) ed gid trj trung binh Id 44,96%, nim trong khoang tir 1% din 91% vdi dp lech chuin eao 20,95%. Quy md doanh nghiep (LnS) cd gid trj binh quan Id 13,32 ndm trong khodng gid trj tir 7,5 din 16,7.
Doanh thu trung binh (S) ciia cac doanh nghiep trong giai doan ndy Id 1.163 ty ddng. Gid tri nay eung kha nhd do da so cac doanh nghipp d Viet Nam Id viia va nhd, tu6i ddi cung chua nhilu
nen qua trinh lieh tu vdn, lao ddng con il nen quy md, gia trj cdn thap. Age Id sd ndm tinh tir thai diem doanh nghiep dupc niem yIt tren san den ndm goc Iam he quy chilu. Cac doanh nghiep nghien ciiu cd tudi irung binh la 2,93 ndm trong khodng tir I din 10 nam.
4.2, Phdn tich tuang quan
De phdn tieh hdi quy, trudc het cin xem xet mdi quan he tuong quan giira cdc biln vdi nhau, theo bdng ma Iran tuang quan dudi day, la thay miic dp tuong quan giira eae bien khdo sdi deu d miie Ihap. Khi tuong quan cdp giira cac biln giai thich cao (> 0,5) Ihi cd the xay ra hien tupng da cdng tuyen. Bang 2 cho thdy, cdc cdp bien deu cd ket qud < 0,5; chiing Id cdc cdp biln khdng xdy ra hien tupng da edng luyen trong md hinh nghien ciiu. Tir ket qua ndy tao dieu kien tiep cho ta chay dupc cdc md hinh hdi quy.
Bang 2: Ma tran tuong quan giira cac
FC (Ty le so hiiu nu6c ngoai) L (Ng tren tong tai s^) LnS (Quy mo doanh nghiep) Age (Tuoi doanh nghiep) Sector (Nganh nghe hoat dpng)
FC 1 -.276<"'
.172'"' .289'"' -.044
L
1 .229'"' -.196'"' .166'"'
)ien trong LnS
1 -.054 .134'"'
mo hinh Age
1 -.028
Sector
1 Nguon: Ket qud truy sudt tir phdn mem SPSS.
4.3. Phdn tich ket qud hoi quy
Hipu qud boat ddng dupc do ludng bdng ROE vd ROA, kit qud hoi quy dupc chgy 2 bdng, moi bdng cd 02 md hmh. Md hinh 1 cd cdc bien dde Id FC, L, LnS, Age; xet biln FC trong Md hinh 1 de ddnh gia chung sy tac dpng ciia sd huu nudc ngodi. Md hinh 2 gdm cac bien FC2, FC3, FC4, L, LnS, Age; xet cdc biln FC2, FC3, FC4 yong Md hinh 2 de ddnh gid cy the sy tac ddng ciia rtmg mirc sd hiru nudc ngoai. Kll qua hdi quy dugc the hipn yong Bdng 3 vd Bang 4.
* Ty I? s& hOu nu&c ngodi (FC) tdc dgng din hi^u qud hogt dgng cua doanh nghiep
Bang 3 cbo thay, ty le FC cd y nghTa thdng ke trong Md hinh 1. Rieng FC2, FC3 va FC4 Iai kbdng cd y nghTa thdng ke trong Md hinb 2. He sd ude lugng cua FC mang ddu ducmg, nghia la sd hiru nudc ngoai co lac dpng ciing chieu vd mang hieu iing tich cyc den ROE. Dieu nay cd the Id vi nhd gidm dupc chi phi, lang doanh thu, nang cao khd ndng qudn trj, gidm that thodt,...
dl tao ra Igi nhuan vd sd hihi nudc ngodi khi diu tu vao doanh nghiep Viet Nam mong mudn dupe chia lpi tire so vdi vdn ddu tu vdo. Tai Bang 4, ty lp sd hihi nudc ngodi (FC) co y nghTa thdng ke trong Md hinh 1. FC3 khdng cd
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Sd hOu nirdc ngodi tdc dpng din hi^u qua.. Nguyfin Minh Hd - Nguyfin Thdnh DuyPhffing.
y nghTa thdng ke trong Md hinh 2. FC2 vd FC4 CO y nghTa thdng ke trong md hinh 2. He sd udc lupng ciia FC Id ducmg, nghTa Id tac dpng cua ty Ie sd hiru nudc ngodi den hieu qud doanh ngbiep (ROA) la eiing chieu. He so udc lupng cua FC2 Id +1.745, cd nghTa so vdi FCI thi tac dpng cua FC2 manh ban len ROA. Tuang ty, vdi cdc doanb nghiep cd ty le sd hiru nudc ngodi tir 30% den 50%, he sd udc lugng cua FC4 Id +3.174, cd nghTa lae dpng eua FC4 Idn hon tdc ddng cua FCl len ROA. Ket qud nghien Cliu ndy phii hgp vdi kel qud nghien cim ciia Olga (2009) d Ukraine, Nurhan vd ctg (2007) tai Turkey, vd Douma vd ctg (2003) tai An Do.
Nhu vdy, tir ket qua d ca hai Bang 3 va 4, ty le sd hihi nudc ngodi deu cd y nghia thdng ke vd tae ddng lieh eye den hieu qud hogt ddng cua doanh nghiep. Kel qua nay phii hgp vdi kel qua nghien cihi ciia Olga (2009) d Ukraine, Nurhan vd ctg (2007) lgi Turkey va Douma vd ctg (2003) tai An Dp. Ngodi ra, khi phan tich chi tiet timg miic ty Ie sd htm nude ngodi den hipu qua boat ddng cua doanh nghiep, ket qud hdi quy cho thay so vdi ty lp sd hiru FCl (FC
<10%), sy tdc dpng khdng ro rang d timg miic ty Ie sd hihi FC2 (10% <- FC <20%), FC3 (20% <= FC <30%) vd FC4 (30% <- FC
<50%) din ROE; vd FC3 (20% <- FC <30%) den ROA. Tuy nhien, cd sy tdc dpng Idn vd y nghTa ciia miic ly le sd hiiu FC2 (I0%<=FC2<20%) vd FC4 (30% <= FC <50%) din ROA. So vdi FCI, thi FC2 vd FC4 tae dpng manh den ROA hon rat nhieu. Ket qud ndy phii hgp vdi kel qua ciia Nurhan vd ctg (2007) tai Turkey. He so udc lupng cua FC4 Id 3.714 ldn bon he s6 udc lugng cua FC2 la 1.745, chiing Id ty Ie sd hihi nudc ngoai cdng cao thi su tac dpng len ROA hay hieu qua hoat dpng ciia doanh nghiep cdng ldn.
Thyc te, khi cdc doanh nghiep niem yet tren sdn chiing khodn, bdn than doanh nghiep ciing mudn nang cao hieu qud boat dpng bdng nhieu each nhu quan Iy chdt che chi phi dau vdo, nguyen vat lipu, ldi uu hda md hinh hogt
dpng... Khi cd sy tham gia cua nhd diu tu nuac ngodi thi dp lyc ve hieu qud cdng tdng cung vdi qua yinh minh bach hda thdng tin cang cao. Vdi cdc nhd ddu tu sd hihi ty lp Idn, tham gia vdo qud tiinh quan trj doanh nghipp thi sy ldc dpng tich cue din hieu qud hogt ddng cdng I ^ do nha dau tu nudc ngodi cd thl giiip cdc doanh nghiep thiic diy viec minh bach bda thdng tin, tdng cudng nang cao hipu qua qudn Iy, gidm sat, chia se kinh nghiem ciing nbu ddo tao vd tdi dao tao nguon nhdn lyc... Doanh nghiep cdn cd the nhgn dugc sy ho trg chuyin giao cdng nghe tien lien tir nudc ngodi, thdnh qud nghien ciiu phat trien sdn pham, tilt kiem chi cbi nguyen vat lipu dau vao, chi phi ndng lugng, chi phi quan ly, chi phi chuyen gia... Ngoai ra, sy tham gia cua cdc nhd dau tu nudc ngodi lam ldng uy tin cua doanh nghipp trong Ihi trudng npi dja ciing nhu thi trudng the gidi, giiip md rpng thj trudng tieu thy san pham.
*Cdc yiu td khde tdc ddng den hieu qud hogt ddng cua doanh nghiep
Ty li na tren tdng tdi sdn (L): Bien ndy trong Bang 3 d cd md hinh 1 va 2 deu cd y nghTa thdng ke. Tai Bang 4, bien ndy cd y nghia thdng ke d todn bp 2 md hinh. He sd hdi quy cua L trong ea 2 md hinh d cd bang 3 vd 4 deu mang ddu am (-), the hien quan he nghjch bien vdi hieu qud tdi chinh cua doanh nghiep, dap ling ky vgng ciia md hinh nghien ciiu. Nlu cae dilu kien khdc khdng thay ddi, khi doanb nghiep cd ty Ip ng tren tdng tdi san edng cao thi hipu qud hoat dpng cdng gidm va ngugc lai. Nhu vay, ddn bay tai chinh trong trudng hgp ndy Iai khdng phal huy tdc dung. Kit qua nay ciing phii hgp ly thuyet danh ddi (trade-off), gia tri doanh nghiep liic dau cd mdi quan he duang vdi ty le ng cdng ty (cau tnic vdn), nhung khi eiu tnie vdn tang vugt mdt ngudng ndo dd tbi hieu qua bogt dpng cd mdi quan he am vdi cau tnic von.
NIU doanh nghiep cir tiep tuc gia tdng ty sd ng, thi liic dd nd s5 tdc dpng ngugc lai ddi vdi hieu qud boat ddng, tiic mdi quan he giira hieu qua boat dpng cua doanh nghiep vdi ly lp ng tren
,n
-NhOng vin ai KINH Tt VA CHiNH TR| THt Giin S6 4(204) 2013
Nguyen Minh Hd - Nguyfin Thdnh Duy Phifgng So hi>u ni/dc ngoai tac dpng dfin hipu qua..
tong tdi sdn (L) Id phi tuyln tinh. Ket qua nghien ciiu ndy thong nhdt vdi ket qua nghien Cliu trudc day cua Olga (2009) vd ngugc Igi vdi ket qud nghien ciiu ciia Joshua Abor (2005).
Quy md doanh nghiep (LnS): Bien ndy deu cd y nghia thdng ke d tdt cd cac md hinh tai cd hai Bdng 3 vd Bdng 4. He sd hdi quy cua LnS yong tat cd md binh deu mang diu duong (+), thl hipn quan hp ddng bien vdi hieu qud boat dpng (ROE, ROA), thda ma ky vpng ban diu.
Neu cdc dieu kien khdc khdng thay ddi, kbi quy md doanh nghipp cang Idn Ihi hieu qud lai ehinh cdng cao vd ngugc lai. Kit qua ndy phii hgp vdi
nghien cihi cua Olga (2009) vd ciia Doan Ngpc Phi Anh (2010). Thye te cho thiy, cdc doanh nghiep cd qui md Idn de tilp can vdn moi khi mudn md rpng thi trudng hay tiln hdnh ddi mdi, nang cdp yang thiet bj. Hon nira, cdc doanh nghipp ed quy md ldn se thuan lgi ban khi mua nguyen vat lieu ddu vdo, gid cd se tdt hem cdc doanh nghiep cd quy md nbd bon. Do do, viec ndy anh hudng den ndng suit lao ddng, chit lugng san pham, tinh canh tranh tren thj trudng vd hieu qud tai chinh ciia doanh nghiep, lap cho diing vihig chdc trong thi irudng, md rpng quan he hpp lac vdi cdc don vj kinh le ben ngodi.
Bdng 3: Ket qua hoi quy ve hieu qua hoat dpng do bdng ROE
Hang so
FC (Ty 1? s6 hOu nu6c ngoai) FC2 (Khi 10% <= FC < 20%) FC3 (Khi 20% <= FC < 30%) FC4 (Khi 30% <= FC < 50%) L (Ty le no tren tong tai san) LnS (Quy mo doanh nghiep) Age (Tuoi doanh nghiep) Sector2 (Nganh cong nghiep) Sector3 (Nganh dich vu) Bien kiem soat n3m (bien gia) R binh phucmg (R Square) Std. Error of the Estimate Thong ke F (F-Statistic)
Ghi chu: *** y nghla 6 mure 1%, ** y ng FCl (khi FC <10%), va Secto
Mo hinh 1 He so -15.746 0.096"
-0.064*
2.996***
-1.154***
-7.557 -9.908*
Co kiem soat
Std. Error 9.710 0.054
0.038 0.687 0.391 5.083 5.240 Co kiem soat 0.117 14.7946 7.056'**
^l^a a mirc 5%, * y nghta a i rl (nganh nong nghiep) la c
iVIo h He so -16.324
2.387 2.084 3.336 -0.067*
2.999***
-1.109***
-7.006 -9.172*
Co kiem soat
n h 2 Std. Error
9.668*
2.034 2.299 2.086 0.037 0.691 0.389 5.136 5.305 Co kiem soat 0.118 14.7977 5.67:
nilc 10%.
ac bien tham c
***
lieu.
NhOng vin ai KINH Tt VA CHiNH TRI THt GIOI S6 4(204): 77
So- hOu nuO'c ngoSi t^c dOng d^n hi$u qua.. Nguyen Minh H^ Nguyin Thinh Duy Phuwng Bang 4: Ket qua hoi quy ve hieu aua boat don? iln hin). ROA
Hang so
FC (Ty le so him nuoc ngoai) FC2 (Khi 10% <= FC <20%) FC3 (Khi 20% <= FC <30%) FC4 (Khi 30% <= FC <50%) L (Ty le ng tren tong tai san) LnS (Quy mo doanh nghiep) Age (Tuoi doanh nghiep) Sector2 (Ngaiih cong nghiep) Sector3 (Ngcinh dich vu) Bien kiem soat nam (bien gia) R binh phuong (R Square) Std. Error of the Estimate Thdng ke F (F-Statistic)
Md hinh 1 H^ so 2.918 0.088***
-0.165***
1.314***
-0.700***
-5.813**
-7.125*'*
Co kiem soat
Std. Error 5.023 0.028
0.019 0.356 0.202 2.630 2.710 Co kiem soat 0.254 7.6532 18.109***
Mo hinh 2 H^ so 2.537 1.745' 1.929 3.174"*
-0.166*"
1.319***
-0.673***
-5.427"
-6.601**
Co kiem soat
Sid. Error 5.002 1.052 1.190 1.079 0.019 0.358 0.201 2.657 2.745 C6 Kiem soat 0.254 7.6563 14.494***
Ghi chu: *** y nghla 6 muc 1%, ** y nghla a miic 5%, * y nghTa 6 muc 10%.
FCl (khi FC <10%), va Sectorl (nganh nong nghiep) la cac bien tham chieu Khu vuc ngdnh nghe (Sector): Ngdnh cdng
nghiep (Sector2) khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke trong Bdng 3 nhung cd y nghTa thdng ke trong Bdng 4. Ngdnh djch vu (Sector3) cd y nghTa thdng ke trong eae md hinh trong Bdng 3 va Bang 4. Hp sd hdi quy ciia khu vye ngdnh nghe trong ea 2 bang deu mang ddu am (-). Nhu vay, so vdi Sectorl (nganh ndng nghipp), thl Seetor2 (ngdnh cdng nghiep) va Sector3 (ngdnh djch vu) kem hieu qua hon. Dieu ndy ed the do cdc cdng ty ngdnh ndng nghiep chu yeu la trdng cay cao su, gidng cay trdng... nen cd hogt dpng dn djnh, it dau tu ngodi ngdnh, dan trai nhu cac cong ty ngdnh cdng nghiep va djch vu. Ket qua Iren ehiing td yeu td nganh nghe tac dpng khdng ro rang Idm den chi sd ROE nhung lai tdc ddng rit ldn den chi sd ROA. Ben canh do, giai dogn nghien ciiu Id tir 2007 - 2009, ddy Id giai doan khd khdn cua nen kinh te nen cdc doanh nghiep trong khu vyc cdng nghipp vd djch vu bj anh hudng nhieu hon khu vyc ndng nghiep.
Tudi eua doanh nghiep (Age): Bien nay deu cd y nghia thdng ke d tat cd cdc md hinh hong Bdng 3 va Bang 4. He so hdi quy cua biln Age deu mang dau am (-), the hien quan hp nghich bien vdi hieu qud tdi chinh. Kel qud ndy trdi vdi Iy thuyet va ky vpng ban diu cua nghien ciiu Id tudi ddi doanh nghiep cdng cao hay lau ddi thi hieu qua hogt ddng ciing tdng theo kinh nghiem boat dpng.
5. Ket luan va khuyen nghi 5.1. Kit ludn
Nghien eiiu sd hiiu nudc ngodi tac ddng din hipu qua boat dpng cda cdc cdng ty niem yet yen thj trudng chimg khoan Viet Nam trong giai doan tir 2007 - 2009 dugc thyc hien vdi 436 quan sdt tir 185 doanh nghipp. Bdng phuang phap hdi quy, kit qud cho thiy sd h&u ciia cd ddng nudc ngodi cd dnh hudng din din hipu qud hoat dpng ciia doanh nghipp. Nlu ty le sd hihi nudc ngodi cang cao, thi miic dp tdc
i ^
-NhOng vin ai KINH Tt VA CHiNH TR| THt Gltn S4 4(204) 2013Nguyen Minh Hd - Nguyfin Thdnh Duy Phwyng Sd hO-u nudc ngodi tac dpng d^n hi^u qua...
(lgng cdng ldn din hieu qua hoat dpng. Ngodi ra, cdc yeu id nhu ty Ie ng tren tdng tdi sdn tac ddng nghjch cfiieu vd quy mo doanh nghiep tdc dpng cimg chilu din hipu qua hoat ddng cua doanh nghiep. Rieng khu vuc ngdnh nghi, tac dpng khdng ro rdng din ROE vd tdc ddng cd y nghTa den ROA. Ngodi ra, vdi timg miic ty Ie sd hihi nudc ngodi cd tdc ddng khdng rd rang den ROE nhung Iai tdc ddng y nghia va ciing chieu den ROA, ty Ie cang cao thi sy dnh hudng den ROA cdng ldn. Tii kit qua phan lich, nghien cihi ggi y mpt sd khuyin nghj chinh sach
5.2. Khuyen nghf chinh sdch
Ddi vdi doanh nghipp ngudn vdn gidn tiep tir nudc ngodi dl cd tac dpng thiic diy cd phin h6a, git? ty Ie sd hiiu de mang Iai hieu qua tdi uu cho doanh nghipp, tdng tinh minh bach, ndng eao ndng lyc egnh tranh ciing nbu giai quylt van de Ihilu vdn... Ngodi ra, doanh nghiep Vipt Nam cdn cd the nhan dupc su chia se cua nbd dau tu chien lupc vl nghien cihi phdt triln sdn pham mdi, cdng nghp, thi trudng, gia nguyen vgt lipu dau vao, quan tri chiln lupc, quan tri nii ro cung nhu qudn ly nhan sy... Ngodi ra, doanh nghipp cd the tham khdo co ciu vdn dl dua ra cau tnic von hgp ly cho doanh nghiep minh. Cd the khi doanh nghipp vay ng d mdt miirc hgp ly thi se mang lgi hieu qud tdt cho doanh nghiep.
Doanh nghipp vay no thip thi se mang lgi lgi
ich, ngugc Iai vay ng qua mue se dan den mat khd nang thanh loan. Khi quyet djnh lai trg, ngodi viec dya vao cdu tnic vdn hgp ly, can xem xet tinh binh thyc te tai doanh nghiep 'va cdc chien luge ddi han cua edng ty de dua ra cdu tnic vdn hgp Iy, kiem sodt nii ro tdi chinh.
Ddi vdi nha quan ly thi nghien cihi cd thl ggi y mpl sd cbinh sach nhdm kich thich thj trudng tai ehinh phdt triln theo hudng nang cao hieu qud hoat ddng, md rpng quy md va tang tinh minh bach, tao dieu kien cho doanh nghiep h-ong nudc de dang tiep can vdi nguon vdn mdi;
nang cao vai trd qudn Iy nha nudc va chit lugng quan trj doanh nghiep, cd tdc dpng thiic diy manh me cdc mdi quan he kinh tl. Phdt huy nhimg hieu iing tich cue tir ngudn vdn FII nhu lang vdn tren thi trudng vdn npi dja vd lam giam chi phi vdn thdng qua viec da dang boa nii ro, gitip cho cac thl chl tai chinh trong nudc cd CO hpi tiep can cdc Ihi irudng vdn qudc tl; dp dung cdc cdng cu va ky thudt tai chinb mdi nhu tuong lai, quyen chgn, hoan ddi hoac cdc cdng cu bdo hiem khdc; cai tiln cac khudn khd giam sat vd dieu tiet, tdng cudng tinh ky luat ddi vdi cdc Ihj trudng vdn ndi dja... vd gidm nhimg hieu ling lieu cue lir ngudn von diu tu gian tilp nhu han che tinh trang kinb tl bong bong, tang tinh dpc lap cua chinh sdch tiln te vd ty gia*
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NhOng vin di KINH Tt VA CHINH TR! THt Gldl So 4(204) 2013-
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