KINH Te'TH^Gldl VA KHU Vl/C
Tai cau true nen kinh te the giai nhin tiF goc do Ijch SLP
TRAN MANH TAO*
Ke tir cudc khung hodng kinh ti the gi&i ndm 1929 - J933 den nay, the gi&i da 6 ldn xay ra suy thodi vd khiing hodng kinh te tren dipn rpng, cd thi ki din la: Dgi khung hodng kinh te the gi&i 1929 - 1933, cdc cupc khung hodng kinh te thi gi&i 1973 - 1975, suy thodi kinh ti thi gi&i ddu nhiing ndm 1980, cdc cupc khiing hodng tai chinh khu vyc thdp ni^n 1990, suy thodi kinh ti todn cdu 2001 - 2002 vd khung hodng tdi chinh vd suy thodi kinh ti todn cdu 2008 - 2010. Cdc cupc khiing hodng dem lai dnh hu&ng nang ni cho todn thi gi&i, bupc cdc nhdm nu&c chiu khung hodng vd todn thi gi&i phdi dp dung nhirng chinh sdch khdc nhau nhdm phuc hdi nen kinh ti.
1. Cdc cupc khung hoang kinh te the gidi ti^
Dai khung hoang kinh te 1929 -1933 din nay - Dgi khung hodng kinh ti thi gi&i 1929 -1933
Day dugc coi la cugc khung hodng toi t?
nhdt yong lich sd tcinh te thl gidi bdi quy md dnh hudng mang tinh thdm hpa cda nd. Tai MJ, ybng ba ndm 1929 1933, san lugng cdng nghidp gidm 30%, 50% sd ngdn hdng sup dd, t^
le thdt nghidp len tdi 25%, cdc chi so chdng khodn giam xdp xi 90%'. Mdc du, cugc dai khung hodng cham ddy vac ndm 1933 nhung tinh yang dinh txs kdo ddi sudt thdp nidn 1930.
Cugc Dai khdng hodng ndy bdt ddu tai My va nhanh chdng lan rgng ra todn ehdu Au vd cac
* ViSn Kinh t l vd Chfnh trj T h l gi(W
' Kieu Oanh (2009): So sdnh suy thodi hi$n nay vd dgi suy thodi 1930. VN Economy, 19/3.
NhOng vdn di KINH TC VA CHiNH TR] TH^ Gl6l S6 9(197) 2012 -
nude tdiae den the gidi, Idiien thuong mai qudc te sut gidm nghiem ygng, sdn xudt dinh ddn vd that nghidp gia tdng. Nguyen nhdn eua cupc DEU tdidng hodng ndy dugc ddnh gid td do: i) Chinh sdch ndi Idng tin dung d My va cae nude chau Au khidn tdng trudng san Iugng cdng nghidp, gid tri chdng tchodn, gid bdt dgng san khdng bin vdng; ii) Cliinh sach h^n chl nhdp khdu tdiien thuooig m^ qudc te suy gidm nghidm trgng; iii) H^ thdng ngdn hdng cdc nude ylu kdm do mang tinh dia phucmg, khdng tidn kit vdi nhau nen khi xdy ra khdng hoang ddn chung dd xd din ngdn hdng rdt tiln dl mua vdng, khiln ddng USD vd cdc ddng tiln chau Au gidm manh gid tri; iv) Mdt sd chinh sach tien td khdng hgp ly nhu chinh sdch gidm phdt, tdng thul, chinh sdch ngdn cdn cdt gidm tiea cdng trong doanh nghidp...
- Khdng hodng kinh tiihi gi&i 1973-1975
Tdi c4u triic n^n kinh teth^ gidi.. Trjin M^nh Tjo Cugc khung hoang ndy bdt dau dien ra tir
ngay 17/10/1973 khi cac nude Ihu^c To chirc Xu^t khiu dau md (OPEC) quyet djnh ngirng eung cap nhien lifu sang My, Nhjl Bdn, 'lay Au nhdm trimg phat s\f ung hg ciia nhdm nude ndy ddi vdi Israel trong cupc xung d§t giiia Israel vdi lien qudn Ai C?p ~ Syria. Sy ki?n ndy khidn gid diu the gidi ting cao dgt nggt vd gdy ra cugc khung hoang kinh Ic 1973 - 1975 tren quy md todn cdu. Gid dau the gidi tdng tit 3,01 USD ngay 16/10/1973 len 5.11 USD vdo giiia nSm 1974^ Ciing vdi gid dau tdng cao, My thd ndi ddng USD. in tien phuc vy cho vice tdi trg cho chidn tranh Vi?t Nam dd khidn dong USD mat gid vd tdng lam phdt. Thj trudng chljrng khodn My bdc hoi 97 ty USD chi sau mgt thing ruSi - mgt so tidn khdng id vdo thdi diem dd. Suy thodi vd lam phat tdng cao gay dnh hudng tieu cue den nen kinh te toan cau cho tdi tan thap nien 1980.
Suy thodi kinh ti the gioi ddu thgp nien 1980
Dau thap nien 1980, kinh te the gidi lam vdo cudc khiing hoang nghiem trgng. Cugc Cdch mang Iran ndm 1979 da day gia dau the gidi tang vdi tdc do chdng m^t, la nguyen nhan khdi dau eho euge suy thoai kinh te toan cdu nhihig ndm tiep theo, khdi dau la MJ. Gid ndng lugng tdng eao keo theo lam phdt d M^ gia tdng, djit mirc 13,5% trong ndm 1980 bugc Cyc Dy triJ Lien bang MJ phai thye hi^n chinh sdch that ehdt tien te. Hau qud eiia cugc suy thoai la that nghiep d My va Anh gia tdng, ngdnh cdng nghiSp san xuit xe hoi, nhd dit, sdn xuit thip li^n tuc bj thu h?p sdn xuit.
Cimg vdi suy thoai kinh te d cic nude phdt tridn, cic nude My Latinh diu th|p nien 1980 ciing lam vdo khiing hoing ng nghiem trgng,
^ Bdy cugc khung hodng gid d^u trong Ijch sii, http://www.Vnexpress, 3/7/2011.
didn hinh li Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Ecuador.
Cugc khiing hoing ng niy bit ngudn tit vifc thye hi^n chinh sich ldi suit cao d My vi cic nude ehdu Au khidn cic khoin di vay cua cic nude My Latinh ting gii trj. Khi ndn kinh td My vi chau Au gjp khiing hoing kd tir ndm 1980, thugng mai thd gidi dinh tr$, gii ci cae hing hda nguydn lidu thd syt giim nghiem trgng khien eic nude My Latinh khdng the xuat khau dc thanh toin ng nan. Khiing hoing ng nim 1982 tde dgng den hau het cic nude My Latinh khidn thu nhap dau ngudi giim m ^ , thit nghigp ling cag, lam phdt cao, ting trudng kinh te dinh tre. IMF vi WB di phii dua ra eac khoin cho vay de giup cdc nude My Latinh khde phyc khiing hoing. Nhihig nim 1982 - 1984 duge dinh gid Id giai doan khiing hodng tii ehinh toin ciu.
- Cdc CUOC khung hodng tdi chinh khu vuc thdp nien 1990
Thdp nien 1990, the gidi chung kidn 3 cudc khiing hoing tii chinh khu vuc, do la: Khiing hoing tii chinh chau Au 1990 - 1991, khung hoing ng Mexico 1994 vd khiing hging tii chinh - tidn tp ehau A 1997 - 1998.
Tai chau Au, ehinh sich tu do hda thi trudng tii chinh d nhidu nude lit cudi thdp nien 1980 di dan tdi cugc khung hoing tai chinh nghiem trgng. T^i cdc nude Bdc Au, cic ngdn hdng dugc hudng chinh sich ty do hda da khdng kidm sodt dugc cho vay bit dgng san, die biet li d Phin Lan vi Thyy Didn, Na Uy. Nhidu nude khic nhu Italia, Australia cOng lam vdo khung hodng ngdn hing trong giai do?n ndy.
Tiii My Latinh, khung hoing kinh td Mexico nim 1994, hay cdn dugc ggi li khung hodng Tequila do ddng peso mit gii nhanh chdng vio thdng 12 nim 1994, sau dd lan ra edc khu vuc kinh td khic. Cu$c khiing hoang niy khdng chi lim kinh te Mexico bi inh hudng, mi cdn dnh hudng tieu cyc ddn kinh td cic nude My Latinh,
-Nhitng vin di KINH T 6 VA CHiNH TR| THE GltSl S6 9(197) 2012
Trdn Mjinh Tdc Tdi cdu triic n^n kinh t^ the gidi..
tao ra hieu dng "Tequila" khiln My, Canada, IMF, WB phai phdi hgp trg edp cho Mexico nhCmg khodn tin dung tri gid 50 t^ USD de ngdn chan hau qud cua khung hodng. Cupc khung hodng ndy tdc dgng nhd tdi cdc nude cong nghidp phdt triln.
Hai ndm sau klidng hodng ng tai Mexico (1994 - 1995), tai chau A da xdy ra mgt cupc khung hodng tai chinh - tiln td lam GDP the gidi gidm 2.000 ty USD. Cudc khung hodng ndy bdt ngudn td Thdi Lan, Indonesia, Hdn Quoc, sau dd Ian rdng sang Hdng Cdng, Malaysia, Philippines, Dai Loan vd nhieu nude Ddng A khdc. Hdu qud cda cupc khdng hodng Id tien t?
bi mat gid, h? thong tai chinh ngan hang sup do, thi trudng chdng tdiodn sup do, thuofng mai va dau tu gidm m^mh, bat on chinh tri d Indonesia vd Thdi Lan... Mac du bdt ngudn tu Ddng A, nhung anh hudng cda cupc khdng hoang nay Ian truydn ra todn cau vd gdy nen sy tdiung hoang tai chinh toan cau, vdi nhihig tac dong Ian rgng ddn Nga, Brazil va My. Mpt ndm sau khung hoang tdi ctu'nh chau A, Nga da phdi tuyen bd lam phat vd chdp nhan budng xudi, vi mdn ng nha nude qua ldn. Trj gid ddng rup sut gidm, cdn nhihig ngudi ddu tu quay lung tai vdi kinh tl Nga. Cupc tdidng hoang ndy vdn dugc danh gia Id cupc khdng hodng cd quy md Idiu vyc bdi cdc nude cdng nghiep phat trien khdng bi tdc ddng ndng nd.
Suy thoai kinh ti todn cdu ddu thdp nien 2000
Sau vu khung bd 11/9/2001 tai My, thl gidi ISm vao cudc suy thoai kinh td, xudt phat td cdc nude cdng nghiep phat tridn. Khdi ddu eho cupc suy thodi ndy la sy d6 vd cda bong bdng dot.com ("bong bdng" thi trudng chdng khodn cdng nghd cao), vu khung bl 11/9, vu bd boi kidm todn MJ?, khiln kinh tl My budc vao giai
doan suy thodi va Ian rgng sang nhidu nude phdt triln khde nhu EU: Nhat Ban, Canada va Nga, Cupc suy thodi nay duac ddnh gia la khong tdi te qud mdc, bdi cdc nen kinh tl da vugt qua suy thodi mpt cdch- nhanh chdng va mdc dd ton hai khdng Ign. Sy suy thoai kinh te the gidi trong thdi ky nay bieu hien ro trong su dinh tr? ddng vdn FDI tren thd gidi, sy sut gidm hoat dpng thuang mai qudc te va nhdng bien dpng trong hoat dpng lai chinh tien te todn cau.
Khung hodng tdi chinh vd suy thodi todn cdu 2008-2010
Cupc khung hoang nay duge so sanh vdi cudc Dai khung hoang kinh te the gidi 1929 - 1933 bdi tinh chdt nghiem trpng cua nd. Xuat phdt diem cua cupc khdng hoang Ian nay Id vide Tap dodn Lehman Brothers cda My tuyen bd pha san vao ngay 15/9/2008, keo theo sy pha san cua mpt loat cac tdp doan kinh te Idn vd CO tdi 90 ngan hang My xin bao hd, lam dnh hudng tdi han 1.000 ngan hang Idn cua cdc nude tren the gidi, nhat la cdc ngan hang cda My va chau Au. Cac thi trudng chung tdiodn ldn cda the gidi nhu: New York, London, Paris, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Seoul, Thugng Hai, San Paolo deu bi chao dao manh. Khdng hodng tdi chinh Ian rpng ra toan the gidi, keo ddi, khien thuang mai qudc te sut gidm nghiem trpng chua tihig ed, thdt nghiep gia tdng, gia ca hang hda tdng vpt, ddng thdi thd gidi tam vao nguy ca khdng hodng nang lugng, khdng hoang tuong thyc va nhung thach thdc an ninh phi truyen thdng khac. Cac chuydn gia kinh tl hang dau thd gidi dy doan kinh tl thd gidi chua ed ddu hidu phuc hoi va suy thoai kinh te thd gidi cd thd dugc vi nhu thdi k^ dgi tdidng hodng cua thdp nidn 1930. Paul Krugman cho rdng, cupc khdng hoang nay Id cupc dai suy thodi ldn hai cua kinh td the gidi bdi quy md va mdc dp anh hudng sau rdng cda nd.
NhO-ng vSn di KINH T i VA CHINH TRI TH^ Gidl S6 9(197) 2012 -
Tdi cliu trOc ndn kinh t6 th^ gidi... Tran M^nh Tip
Bang 1: Cdc eugc khung hoing tdi chfnh - kinh td todn ciu vd cdc nude lien quan
Giai doan 1929-1933
1973- 1975
1981 -1983
1992-1993
1997-1998
2000 - 2002
2008-2010
Nude lien quan
Argentina, Australia, Bi, Brazil, Trung Quoc, Dan M^ch, Phdn Lan, Phdp, Ddc, Hy Lgp, Italia, Na Uy, Bo Ddo Nha, Tay Ban Nha, Th^y Dicn. Thgy Sy. Thd Nhi Ky, My.
Argentina, Australia, Bi, Dan Mgch, Phdn Lan, Hy Lap, Hd Lan, Na Nuy, Bo Ddo Nha, Tay Ban Nha, Thgy Diln, Thyy Sy, Bangladesh, Chile, Ai Cap, Indonesia, Ai Len, Italia, Hdn Qudc, Malaysia, Mexico. New Zealand. Peru, Nam Phi, Anh, My...
Argentina, Australia, Bangladesh, Bi, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, Cote d'lvoircc, Dan Mgch, Ecuador, Phan Lan, Phdp, Ddc, Ai Len, Israel, Italia, Jamaica, Mexico, Hd lan, Nigeria, Na Uy, Pakistan, Philippines, Bo Ddo Nha, Senegal, Nam Phi, Tay Ban Nha, Sri Lanca, Thyy Dien, Thyy Sy, Anh, Urugoay, Zimbabue, Canada, Hong Kong, Hdn Quoc, Singapore, Ddi Loan, Thdi Lan, My.
Trung Qudc. Dan M^ch, Phdn Lan, Phdp, Ghana, Hy Lap, An Dp, Ai Len, Italia, Jamaica, Hd Lan, Nigeria, Pakistan. Peru, Bd Ddo Nha, Nam Phi, Tay Ban Nha, Thyy Dien, Anh, Zimbabue.
Australia, Ao, Bi, Brazil, Ddc, Indonesia, Hdn Qudc, Malaysia, Mexico, Ha Lan, New Zealand, Pakistan, Paragoay, Philippines, Singapore, Nam Phi, Tay Ban Nha, Thuy Sy, Thai Lan, Zimbabwe.
Ap, Bi, Brazil, Chile, Cote d'lvoircc, Dan M?ch, Phdn Lan, Phap, Due, Indonesia, Italia, Hd Lan, New Zealand, Bd Ddo Nha, Tdy Ban Nha, Senegal, Zimbabwe.
Ao, Bi, Dan Mach, Phdp, Ddc, Hy L^p, Ireland, Hd Lan, Bd Ddo Nha, Tay Ban Nha, Nga, Thyy Diln, Thyy SS, Anh, MS.
Nguon: Michael D.Bordo (2010): The Global Financial Crisis Is it Unprecedented?. EWC/KDI Conference, No !, 19-20/8/2010, Honolulu, Hawaii.
1. Nhihig bifn phdp tii cau Iriic ndn kinh te the gidi
Khung hoing kinh td thd gidi nhin tir gdc dO Ijeh sir cd the phan thinh 3 lo^ii: Khung hodng tii chinh - tien t$, khung hoing ng vi khung hoing kep. Tit bin chit eua eic cu§e khimg hoing vd xdt tren gde dg khich quan vi chii quan giy ra khung hodng, eic bi?n phip tii ciu tnic ndn kinh te thd gidi ed sy khic nhau.
Ocdp d0 qudc gia vd khu vuc: cic bi?n phip tii CO ciu duge cac chinh phu thye hign trong mSi euge khung hging li nhu sau:
Trong euOc D^i khiing hoang 1929 - 1933, Chinh phu My do Rooseveh cim quyen da dua ra chinh sich kinh td - xi h^i mdi. (New Deal dd khdc phyc khimg hoing. Chinh sich nay dugc thyc hi?n vao nim 1933 va duge soan thio bdi m$t nhdm cic gido su va chuydn gia thu^c trudng phii Keynes dya trdn Ly thuyet tong qiiit vd sijr dyng lao dgng, lii suit vi tien t^ ciia Keynes. New Deal nhdm thyc hien edi cich trong ba ITnh vyc: ngan hing, cdng nghiep vi xi hOi. Trong ITnh vyc ngin hing, Chinh phii My thyc hign chinh sich l?m phdt tidn td vira Nhitng vin di KINH Jt VA CHINH TR| T H S G I C I S6 9(197) 2012
Trdn Mjinh Tao Tai cau triiic nen kinh t^ thd gidi..
phai, thyc hien he thdng dilu phdi vd gidm sdt hoat dpng tin dung de giam thidu ddu co chdng khoan, thanh lap Uy ban Giao dich vd chdng khodn (Securities and Exchange Commission) de gidm sat cac boat dpng dau tu chdng khodn, tach ngan hang dau tu khdi ngan hdng thuong mai. Trong ITnh vyc cong nghiep, Ludt Phuc hdi cdng nghidp qudc gia khuyen khich moi ngdnh nghi ty lap ra cac dieu le canh tranli trung thyc dugc thiet lap tren quy udc thuong lugng gida chu vd nhan cong. Chinh phd My cdn ra cdc quy dinh bai bd vi?c thu nhdn tre em lam nhan cong, an dinh muc luang tdi thieu va gidm gid lam cho cong nhdn. Trong ITnh vyc xa hOi, Ludt An sinh xd hpi ra ddi nhdm thyc hi?n chd do bao hidm that nghiep, bao hidm luang huu cho ngudi lao dpng, tidn ho trg x§ hpi gidnh cho ngudi that nghiep dugc Chinh phu tai trg. Nhin chung, Dai khung hoang 1929 - 1933 dd lam thay ddi quan diem, chinh sdch va he thdng the che cda nude My. New Deal da thyc hidn nhihig chinh sach kich cau khdng 16 trong nhidu nganh khac nhau nhdm cai cdch he thdng ngan hdng, thyc hidn cac chucmg trinh cdu trg Idian cap, cac chuong trinh cdu trg viec lam, cac chuong trinh phdt tridn ndng nghiep va cac chuang trinh cai each cong nghiep. New Deal sau dd dugc dp dyng d hang loat cdc nude chiu tac dpng cda khung hoang, dac bidt viec ap dyng New Deal d edc nude nay da dan ddn su hinh thanh he thdng an sinh xa hpi rgng ldn d nhidu qudc gia bi khiing hoang, thanh Idp ca quan kiem sodt thi trudng chung tdiodn, phat trien CO sd ha tang va tliay doi ca cau kinh te.
Trong cugc khung hoang tdi chinh tien te khu vyc chau A ndm 1997 - 1998, cdc ndn kinh tl Ddng A da thyc hien nhdng bien phdp tai cau true manh mg trong ITnh vuc doanh nghidp, tai chinh - ngan hdng, ddy mgnh hgi nhdp qudc te, ddi mdi phuong phdp qudn ly kinh tl vT mo...
Trong linh vyc tai ehinh ngan hang, chinh phu cac nude da thyc thi cdc bi$n phap gidm ng va
xda ng xau, tai v6n hoa cac the chd tai chinh, ddng cda cdc the che tdi chinh do vd, tang cudng giam sdt va tinh minh bach cua he thong tdi chinh ngan hdng, tdi ca cau ng xau cua cac doanh nghidp, ddi mdi co cau kinh te, thue day xuat khau vd dau tu bdng cac bidn phap ho trg khdc nhau, cdi cdch ty gid hdi doai linh hoat, gia tdng du trd ngoai td.
Trong cugc khung hoang tai chinh va suy thodi toan cau 2008 - 2010, My vd nhidu nude dd tung ra gdi kich cau khong 16 de giai cdu thi trudng, thue hien cdt giam lai suat, bam mgt lugng tidn ldn vao luu thdng qua kenh nghiep vy thi trudng md bdng each mua trai phieu kho bac va td chdc cdc chuang trinh dau gia cho vay ky ban de cac ngan hang cd the cd dugc nguon tien mdt cdn thiet, tranh thieu hut thanh khodn.
Cac chuang trinh giai cdu ng xau cung dugc thyc hien d nhidu nude de hd trg cho thi trudng dja 6c vd he thdng ngan hang. Nhung bidn phdp lau dai ma My thyc hidn de Idiac phyc khung hoang la: i) Thanh lap mpt he thdng giam sat tdi chinh mdi de quan ly phd Wall, ngan chan mgt cupc khung hoang tai chinh tuang ty se xay ra;
ii) Cai each giao due, tang cudng sdc manh giao dye My, ddt nen tang cho su phat tridn kinh td sau nay cua nude My; iii) Nd lyc phat trien ngudn nang iugng tai sinh, tao ra mpt nganh san xudt cdng nghiep mdi va cung cap co hpi viec lam mdi; iv) Cai each he thong y td, bao hiem toan dan; v) Cdt giam chi tieu chinh phu, giam tham hyt tai chinh dang d mdc cao ky tuc cda My. Trung Qudc cung tien hanh cdc chinh sdch cdt gidm tai suat, bam tien vdo luu thong, thyc hidn goi kich cau 586 ty USD yong ITnh vyc nhd d, CO sd ha tang, van tai, y te va giao dye, mdi trudng, cdng nghiep, cat giam thud, ho yg xuat khau. Hdng loat cac nude chau Au da thyc hi?n cdc chinh sdch cdi cdch h? thdng thul, cai each khu vyc nha d, thyc hien cdc chinh sdch kich cau tri gid hang ydm ty do la d moi nude.
Cung vdi do, chinh sdch tai co cdu kinh tl, tai
NhOng vdn di KINH Tt VA CHfNH TRj T H £ GIOI S6 9(197) 2012 -
Tii ciu true ndn kinh td thd gidi. Tr4n Mgnh Tao
CO ciu doanh nghiep, tii eo ciu xuat khau cung dugc nhieu nude thyc hien nhim khic phyc khiing hodng kinh td.
<^ cap do todn cdu. qui trinh tii cau tnic cic the che quoc te dugc thyc hidn trong moi cudc khung hodng nhim tao nen tinh linh hoat eua ca chd qudn trj todn ciu. Sau euge Ogi suy thoii 1929 - 1933, vio nam 1936, Anh, My vi Phdp di di den thda thu^n ve viC'c thiet l§p cdc djnh che chimg ve kinh ti: lidn quan ddn ty gii hdi doii. Hdi nghi Bretton Woods tai My nim 1944 da dan den sy ra ddi cua hai td chirc tii chinh:
Ngan hing Tii thidt vi phdt trien quoc te (tidn thin ciia Ngan hing The gidi - WB hien nay) vi Quy Tien t? qudc td (IMF). Mgt td chirc chung ve thugng mai eiing dugc dd xuat thanh lip vdi ten gpi To chdc Thuong mai Qudc te (ITO).
Tuy nhien ITO khdng ra ddi duge bdi nd bao triim len nhieu vin de rgng ldn ngoai thuong mai nhu vide lam, dau tu, canh tranh vi djch vy.
Vdo nam 1948, Hiep djnh ehtmg ve Thud quan vd Thuang mai (GATT) di dugc thinh lap nhu mgt thda thuan tam thdi thay thd ITO. Vio ndm 1995, GATT duge thay thd bing Td ehue Thugng mai Thd gidi (WTO).
Nhu vdy, Dai khung hoing kinh td the gidi 1929 - 1933 da dan den sy ra ddi cua eic td ehlic qudc td Idn nhim myc dich dn djnh ndn kinh te toin cau, ho trg cic qudc gia gip khd khin vd tai chinh vd thiic ddy thuang mai toin ciu phit tridn. Nhimg djnh chd niy ehu ydu do My vi cde nude ehdu Au (chu ydu Id /u\h, Phip Dire) - hai thyc lye kinh td msmh nhit the gidi vio thdi didm dd chi phdi. Trong thdi gian niy, eic nude dang phit trien van li nhihig thye thd nhd be chua dii khi ndng tham gia vio cde djnh ehd toin cdu. Tuy nhien, euge khung hoing kinh td thd gidi 1973 - 1975 cho thiy tim inh hudng ciia Td chirc cdc nude xuit khiu diu md (OPEC - ra ddi nam 1960) trong viee ehi phdi gii diu the gidi. Vao diu thap ky 1980 khi My vi mdt sd nude cdng nghi?p bit diu lim vdo
suy thoii kinh te thl tai chiu A, eic nen kinh td cdng nghigp mdi (NIEs) di ndi len nhu nhihig con rdng chiu A. T^i thdi diem niy, cin cin quydn lye kinh te thd gidi vin nghidng ve My, cie nude ehau Au vi Nhit Bin, cimg cie djnh chd toin eiu nhu IMF, WB, GATT, nhtmg ciing bit dau xuit hi^n nhihig thyc thd kinh td nhd hon thu^c nhdm nude cdng nghidp phit tridn nhu OECD (thinh lip nim 1961 gdm 33 nude), G5 (gdm My, Nhit Bin, Ddc, Phip, Anh, thinh lip nim 1967, bit diu chinh thirc hgp hgi nghj thugng dinh vio nim 1975), G7 (gdm My, Nhdt Bdn, Due, Phip, Anh, Italia, Canada, thinh lip nim 1975 de ddi phd vdi eu0c khiing hodng diu mo 1973 - 1975 vi suy thoii kinh te thd gidi trong thdi gian niy. Trong giai doan 1975 - 1986, G5 vi G7 lien tyc cd cic cugc hpp thugng dinh nhim tii thiet nen kinh te thd gidi.
Sau khi Lien xd syp dd, G7 mdi Nga gia nhap vi G7 trd thinh nhdm G8. Tuy nhien, Nga chi lien quan den cdc vin de chinh tri ciia G8 cdn cdc vin de kinh td cua nhdm vi ciia thd gidi ddu do nhdm G7 quydt djnh.
Trong thip ky 1990, thd gidi chiing kien sy Idn m ^ cua cae ndn kinh te dang phit tridn, die bigt li Trung Qudc, An Dg, Nga, Brazil, NIEs Ddng A, ASEAN, mgt sd nirdc My Latinh nhu Brazil, Mehico, Argentina, mgt sd ntrdc Trung Ddng nhu Arab Xeut, Thd NW Ky, mdt sd nude ehiu Phi nhu Nam Phi. Trong thap nidn niy, xu hudng toin cau hda vi khu vuc hoa phit trien nhanh vi manh. Anh hirdng eiia cudc khiing hoing tii chinh chiu A 1997 - 1998 dd lan ra todn the gidi, eho thiy mirc dg phu thu^c siu rgng ciia cie nen kinh td khdng phdn bi$t Id phit tridn hay dang phit ttidn tren todn eiu. Cdc djnh chd da phuang di khdng cdn uy luc tuyet ddi nhu nhihig thap nien trudc dd, khdng giiip cdc nude tren thd gidi cd khi ndng thoit khdi khung hoing mgt cich de ding vi khdng thdo gd dugc nhOng tranh chip thuong mai da phuong gifta cdc nhdm nitdc tren thd gidi. G20 ra ddi vio nim 1999 da tap hgp hdng loat cde
-Nhiing vin di KINH 16 VA CHiNH TRj THE Gidi Sd 9(197) 2012
Trdn Mgnh Tao Tdi cdu true nen kinh tdth^gidi..
quoc gia dang phdt triln, taio ra ca che doi thoai cd h? thdng gida cac ndn kinh td phdt yien vd dang phdt yidn. Chilm 2/3 ddn s6 the gidi va 85% GNP toan cdu, G20 dd cd dnh hudng quan trpng yong cdc dien dan cua WTO (thdng qua vong ddm phan Doha), va dong cdc quyet djnh cua IMF, WB. Trong cudc khung hodng kinh tl toan cdu 2008 - 2010, G20 dd gia tdng tam dnh hudng quan trpng, thay thl G8 trong cdc dien dan todn cau ban ve cac van de khung hodng tdnh te todn cdu. Them vdo dd, viec thanh lap nhdm BRICS vao ndm 2008 vdi 4 thdnh vidn (Nga, Trung Qudc, An Dp. Brazil), ndm 2012 kit nap them Nam Phi dd tao ra nhdng ddi trpng nhdt dinh ddi vdi G8 trdn mpt so vdn de todn cau.
Trong cu6c khdng hodng tdi chfnh todn cau 2008 - 2010, nhu cau tdi thiet cac dinh che tdi chinh - thucmg mai todn cau ngay cdng yd nen bdc thilt. Cupc khdng hoang Ian nay da vugt qud khd ndng vd vai tro co ban cua WB va IMF cung nhu cac td chdc da phuang khac nhu WTO, APEC. Cdc nude chau A, Nam My va cd chau Au cho rdng IMF va WB qud thu dpng yong vide xd ly cupc khdng hoang tai chinh toan cau hidn nay. Co sd de thdnh lap hai dinh chl tai chinh nay la td nhung hdu qua nang nl cda cupc Dai khdng hodng 1929 - 1933 cpng them sy tan phd ndng nd cda Chidn tranh the gidi II, vdi nhidm vy cua WB la eung cap tai chinh cho chau Au dd phuc vu cdng cupc tdi thilt sau chidn yanh, ddng thdi thyc hi$n cdc dy an phdt triln kinh tl ddi han d cde nude dang phdt triln. IMF dugc giao nhidm vy ddm bdo su dn dinh tdi chinh toan cdu. Thd nhung trong vdi thdp nien qua, cd hai td chdc nay dd khdng hodn thanh sd menh ban ddu cda minh, nhdt Id ddi vdi cac nude dang phat yien. Vdi cdc ty do khdc nhau, IMF vd WB dua ra nhihig dilu kien khdt khe nhu doi hdi cac nuac vay phai cai edeh thl chd, chdng tham nhiing, ty do hda thucmg mai indi dugc vay tiln gidi quylt khd khdn vd tai chinh. Trong vdng mdt thdp nien yd lai ddy, chinh sach nay cang trd ndn khdt khe hon nhdm phyc vu lgi ich cda mdt so nude. Thdi'Lan, Han
Qudc trong cupc khung hodng tai chinh chau A 1997 1998, Argentina ndm 2001... ddu phdn dng quyet liet vdi nhdng chinh sdch khdt khe cda IMF. Trong bdi cdnh dd, vai trd cung edp tdi chinh cua Trung Qudc, Nga vd cdc ndn kinh td mdi noi khdc ngdy cang ldn. Cdng cupc tai thiet IMF, WB, WTO dang dugc tien hdnh, trong dd khdng dinh lai nhihig nguydn tdc va nhidm vu ca ban cua cac to chdc nay, dong thdi khdng djnh vai trd anh hudng cua cac nen kinh te mdi ndi ngdy cdng tdng ten trong cdc dinh che todn cau ndy.
3. So sdnh vd nhan xet
Xdt tren quan diem lich sd, cdc cupc khung hodng kinh td thl gidi td khung hodng 1929 - 1933 ddn nay cd nhdng tinh chat khac nhau. Cd nhihig cupc khung hoang dan gidn chi la khung hodng tai chinh - ngan hang (1997 - 1998), hay khung hoang ng nhimg nam 1980, nhung cung cd nhdng cugc khung hoang mang tinh chat trdm trpng hon nhu cupc khung hodng kep (1929 - 1933) hay cupc khung hodng ddp (2008 - 2010). Thdi gian cua cdc cupc khoang hoang nay tdi thilu la 2 nam. Cac cupc khung hodng kinh tl thl gidi xay ra do tinh chat chu ky cua nen kinh td thl gidi. Tu dau the ky XX cho din ddu thap nidn 1980, chu ky cua cdc cudc khdng hoang binh quan la td 5 - 7 nam, nhung tu cuoi thap nidn 1980 yd tai day chu ky nay bi rut ngdn, binh quan td 3 - 4 ndm. Khung hodng ed thl xdy ra td mgt nude ldn hodc mot nuac nhd, sau dd lan rgng ra toan the gidi, nhung nhin vdo tinh chdt chu ky va vai yd cda timg nen kinh te cd thd thdy khi khdng hodng xay ra d mpt nude ton thi tdiung hodng khu vyc sd nhanh chdng Ian thdnh khung hoang kinh td todn cau va muc do trdm ypng cda cugc tdidng hoang bdt ngudn td cde nude cong nghiep phdt yidn thudng ldn hon cac cugc khdng hoang bat nguon td cdc nude dang phat yien.
Vdi quy mo va tinh chdt nghidm trpng cda cudc tdiung hodng tdi chinh todn cau hidn nay, chi cd mpt cupc khung hoang khdc yong Uch sd NhOng vin di KINH T^ VA CHINH TRj THt Gidl S6 9(197) 2012 -
IE
Tdi cdu true nen kinh td thd gidi.. Trdn Mgnh Tdc
cd khd ndng so sdnh, d6 Id Dai khung hodng 1929 - 1933. Diem tuong ddng cua hai cupc khung hodng ndy Id nd mang linh chdt todn cdu.
Vdo thap nien 1930, che dp bdn vj vdng d3 trd thanh co che truyen dan khung hodng td nude nay sang nude khdc. Chinh phii cue nude khi dd da tdng ldi sudt dc bao vv' dy trtJ vdng cua minh.
Tinh trang thdt chat tin dyng leo thang, sdn xudt va thuang mgi vi the ngung Ire, linh trang that nghi?p lan rpng. Vao thdi diem khung hodng 2008 - 2010, cdc nhd ddu tu vd cdc ngdn hdng todn cdu Id ddi tugng 1dm khung hodng lay lan khdp thl gidi. Neu cdc nha dau tu chju thua l5 d mpt qudc gia ndo dd, ho cd the bdn thdo co phieu vd trai phieu d quoc gia khac de huy d0ng tidn mdt. Khi cdc ngan hdng gidm bdt ng vay, hp cung dong thdi giam cho vay vd gidm dau tu d nhilu qudc gia khdc. Trong cd hai cupc khung hodng nay, cac nude chiu khung hodng deu thyc hien chinh sach ndi long tin dung, cho vay o at, dan den bung no bat dpng san, thi trudng chdng tdiodn, tao ra bong bdng kinh td vd gay ra hdng loat cac van dd nghiem trpng trong h? thdng ngan hang va qudn ly ng.
Hau qud cda hai cupc khung hoang nay ciing cd nhieu diem tucmg ddng, dd Id kinh tl todn cau suy giam manh vd chua cd kha ndng hdi phuc yong thdi gian ngdn, sdn lugng sdn xudt bj thu hep, thuong mai va dau tu gidm sdt, thdt nghi$p tdng cao. Dd gidi quylt khung hodng, cdc chinli sach kich cdu ldn deu dugc tung ra trong cd hai cugc khiing hodng.
Tuy nhidn, thl gidi ngdy nay cd nhihig khdc biet nhilu so vdi thl gidi cua thgp nien 1930, vi vdy eac bien phdp tdi cdu ydc nin kinh tl todn cdu cung cd nhieu ndt khdc bi?t. Khdc vdi che dp ban vi vang trudc day, h? thdng tdi chinh qudc tl ngdy nay rdt khdc bi^t vd linh boat hon nhieu. Nlu nhu trudc ddy. My, Ddc va Anh ndm giO phan Idn lugng vdng cua thl gidi, chi phoi thi trudng tai chinh thl gidi va thyc hi?n che dg cd dinh ty gid, thi ngdy nay nhilu ddng tiln qudc gia ddng vai yd chu dao frong he
thdng thj trudng tdi chfnh todn cdu, dd Id ddng USD, ddng euro, ddng bdng Anh, ddng nhan ddn I?, ddng ySn. Sy ndi len cua nen kinh td Trung Qudc vd cdc nen kinh te mdi noi khdc tren the gidi dd khien qud trinh ldi cdu true nin kinh tc thl gidi ngdy nay khong cdn I? thupc nhieu vdo My vd cdc nude phuang Tay, md ddi hdi phdi cd sy ddng thudn cua nhieu qudc gia co vai trd mdi noi dd. Khdc vdi cdc chinh sdch kich cdu cua Keynes dugc sd dyng chu ydu de khdc phyc Dai khung hodng 1929 - 1933, cde chinh phu ngdy nay dd sd dyng nhilu cdng cy chfnh sdch manh ban de thdc day sy phyc hdi kinh tl nhu chinh sdch tai khda nhdm tdng them chi tieu chinh phu, chinh sdch gidm thud cho ngudi dan, bi$n phdp mua trdi philu chfnh phu, mua trdi phieu dja 6c tren thj trudng md de thdc day boat dpng tfn dyng, chfnh sdch ndi ldng tin dyng, chfnh sach khuyen khich ddng vdn dau tu, tdi ca cau thuong mai, san xudt. Do cdc nude ngay nay tham gia chdt chd trong chuoi gid tri todn cdu, sy lien ket cua cde nude tren the gidi ngdy cdng mgnh mS hon ddi hdi cdc djnh che todn cau phai co cau lgi cho phu hgp va mang 1^ tgi ich khong chi cho cdc nude phdt trien, ma cho ca cdc nude dang phdt trien.
Trong qud trinh tai cdu true nin kinh te toan cdu ngdy nay, khong cd mgt nude dan Id nao co the ty minh chju trdeh nhi$m dn dinh hda dugc nen kinh te toan cdu, ma nd ddi hdi phdi cd mpt ca che phdi hgp chdt chS gida cdc nude. Cupc hgp cua nhdm G20 tgi My vdo ndm 2009 cho thdy, cdc nuoc cong nghidp phdt trien da cd nhihig suy nghT lgi ve vai trd cda cdc nude dang phdt trien. Kit qua cua cugc hgp Thugng dinh G20 ndm 2009 cho thdy cdc chinh phd coi vi?c tdng cudng quan ly vd gidm sdt he thdng tai chinh nhu Id mgt yong nhdng diem then chdt de tdi cdu true h? thong tai chinh toan cdu. Hpi nghi G20 ndm 2010 diln ra tai Seoul, Hdn (Julc da ddc bi§t thdo luan ve cdc bien phdp cdi td va gidm sdt h? thdng tdi chfnh tiln td todn cau.
Nhu vay, G20 khong nhitag thl hi?n vai do quan ypng cda minh trong vide h5 yg cdc nude
-WhOnff v6n a6 KINH T^ VA CH(NH TR! T H C Gidi Sd 9(197) 2012
Trdn Mgnh Tao Tdi cdu true ndn kinh t l thd gidi..,
kem phat triln phuc hoi nen kinh tl, md cdn cho thay xu hudng chia sd quydn lyc gida nhdm nude gidu va nhdm nude ngheo trong cdc'vdn de kinh tl.
Td Hgi nghi London 1933 bdn ve cdc bi?n phdp khdc phuc khung hodng kinh tl thl gidi din H0i nghi G20 tai Seoul ndm 2010, cd the thdy cdc nude ydn the gidi hi?n nay dd thay ddi quan diem tdi cau true nen kinh tl thl gidi sau khdng hodng. Hpi nghi London, ddng ddu Id My vd Anh dd sd dung cdc chfnh sdch tiln td cua chinh hg dd xd ly khdng hodng thl gidi, con ngay nay cupc khdng hodng kinh tl thl gidi ddi
hdi cdc nhdm nude phai cd nhihig sy ddng thudn chung vl cdc chinh sdch, bi^n phap va ca chl sd sd dyng nhdm khdc phyc khung hodng.
Trong cugc khung hodng tdi chinh lan ndy, n6t ndi bat Id sy suy ylu rd ret cda cdc trung tdm kinh te tdi ehinh My va chau Au vd sy ndi len manh mg cua kinh te ehdu A, di ddu Id Trung Qudc. Khdc vdi cuOc khung hodng 1929 - 1933, My dd suy gidm dnh hudng ro r?t ddi vdi cdc djnh chl kinh tl tai chinh todn cdu vd vide tdi cdu trdc ndn kinh tl the gidi ngay nay ddi hdi phdi cd sy hgp tdc ch$t chd gida cac nude phuang Tdy vd cde nude dang phdt triln mdi ndi*
Tdi li^u tham Idido:
1. Liaquat Ahamed (2011): Currency Wars, Then and Now, Foreign Affairs, March.
2. Kieu Oanh (2009): So sdnh suy thodi hiin nay vd Dgi suy thodi 1930, Vneconomy, 19/3/2009.
3. Michael D. Bordo (2010): The Global Financial Crisis: is Unprecedented, Conference on Global Economic Crisis: Impact, Transmission and Recovery, Paper No 1, Honolulu, Hawaii, 19-20/8.
4. World Bank (2010); Managing the Global Economy Since World War 11: The Institutional Framework.
5. Rob Kamary (2004): A Brief Review of the Recession of 1990 - 1991, Proceeding of the Academy of Legal, Ethical, Regulatory Issues, Vol 8, No 2.
6. Brussel Economic Forum (2009): Shaphing the New World Economic Order, Issue I, May 14.
7. Dick K.Nanltin (2009); The Global Financial Crisis: Analysis and Policy Implications, CRS Report lor Congress, 2/10.
8. Luu Ngpe Trinh (chu bien) (2012): Kinh ti vd Chinh trf thi gi&i din ndm 2020, NXB.
Khoa hgc Xd hdi, Hd Npi.
9. Xudn Hda (2008): Tdm cudc suy thodi tdi ti nhdt trong Ijch sir nu&c Mp, http://www.Vnexpress, 12/3.
10. Tuyen Nguyen (2011): Bdy cudc khung hodng gid ddu trong Ifch sik, http://www.Vnexpress.net, 3/7.
NhCeng vdn dd KINH T^ VA CHiNH TR| T H 6 Gidl S6 9(197) 2012 -