DIEN DAN KINH TE
K I N H TE
V I E T N A M2 0 1 2 :
, TAI CO CAU DE XOAY CHUYEN T I N H THE
PGS. T s . T R A N DiNH THIEN
Ngudn; Tong cue Thong ke, Nien giam Thong ke cac nilm.
*Sab^unam2011todvdMiii
Tinh th^ kho khan
Nam 2011 la nam that stf kho khan doi vdi nen kinh te Viet Nam. Lam phat "khii hoi" voi toe do cao, viigt xa mute lam phat nam 2010 va cao hom nhieu so v6i "chi tieu" lam phat daac Quoc hoi phe chuan (7%). Toe dp tang truomg GDP giam. So doanh nghiep dong ciia tang manh.
Theo Bo Ke hoach va Dau tu (MPI), trong 9 thang dau nam 2011, da CO 48.700 doanh nghiep (chiein 9% tdng sd doanh nghiep) ngutng hoat dpng, tang it nhat 30% so vdi nam 2010. Theo hieu ling "hon tuyet lan", con sd nay CO xu hudng tang va se tang nhanh htfn vao cudi nam.
Thi trudng bat dpng san bi ddng bang. Gia chiing khoan
"tupt ddc", cd cd phieu gia chi con 10% menh gia. He qua la nff xau ngan hang tang nhanh, thanh khoan cang thang, dat toan bp he thdng vao trang thai rui ro cao.
Den thang 8/2011, ty le npf xau Clia toan bp he thdng ngan hang
la 3,1%, tang 30%
so vdi cudi nam 2010 (2,16%). Ty le ngf xau cudi nam 2011 du doan se len miic 5%.
Tinh the kho khan ciia nam 2011 ro rang khong phai la
"bat thudng". Nd la su tiep ndi, la ket qua "tich hgrp" ciia tinh trang
"cd vSh de" vdn da keo dai ciia nen kinh te, ke tii khi Viet Nam gia nhap Td chiic Thuong mai The gidi (WTO) nam 2007. Mae du trong giai doan nay, Viet Nam cd cff hpi ldn de thue hien mpt cii "biit pha" phat trien manh nhd su gia tang dot bien dong dau tu nudc ngoai lan su bung nd ngoai thuffng, song tren thue te, tdc dp tang trudng GDP lai hi giam xudng, bat dn gia tang^ Lam phat cao keo theo miic lai suat eao dupe duy tri trong mdt thdi gian dai, cdng them each dieu hanh chinh sach mang nang tinh hanh chinh va thieu nhat quan da bao mdn nhanh "siic khoe" doanh nghiep va lam giam dang ke thu nhap thuc td Clia dan cu. Cff sd tang trudng kinh td bi suy yeu trong khi du dia chinh saeh chdng lam phat tiep tue bi thu hep. Dd thi 2 se cung cap mdt cai nhin dai ban ve xu hudng nay.
' V l $ N TRirdTNG V l ^ N K I N H T £ V | £ T N A M
Do thi 2 cho thay tdc dd tang vdn d^u tu eiia Viet Nam qua mdi giai doan 5 nam viia qua la rat cao. Trong khi dd, tdc dp tang GDP lai sut giam (tuffng ddi), va CPI tang vpt. Tuffng quan
"'nghich" nay phan anh mpt xu hudng dang lo ngai: tang trudng GDP dua manh vao tang vdn dau tu nhung hieu qua dau tu giam Slit, lam phat va bat dn tang nhanh.
Tinh hinh dd budc Chinh phii phai danh gia mpt each nghiem tiic tinh the ma nen kinh te dang lam vao va phai cd nhiing giai phap manh de xoay chuyen tinh hinh.
Cudi nam 2011, thdng diep manh me ve tai cff caii nen kinh te vdi ba trpng diem tai cff cau dau tii vdi true chinh la dau tu cdng, tai cff cau he thong ngan hangva. tai cff cau khu vuc doanh nghiep nha nudc - da dupc lanh dao Viet Nam dua ra de dap iing yeu eau cap thiet dd.
Ca h^i Ion cho cai each vd phdt tri^n?
Trong nhiing nam gan day, da cd su chuyen hudng rd ret trong cac Uu tien hanh ddng eiia Cliinh phli. Thay eho tdc dp tang trudng GDP cao, mue tieu uu tien dupe danh cho viec kiem che lam phat va dn dinh vi md. Tuy nhien, ket qua chua dat dupe nhu ky vpng.
Tham chi, cdn xuat hidn mpt tinh
69
Sdi 59+160-Thing 1+2/2012 CHUNG KHOAN VIETNAM
wwwww DIEN DAN KINH TE
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\('t theo "chuan chi ticu n g a n ,sach (|iioc tc. ' r r o n g khi do, C S T P l;ii tluid'ng t hat c h a l , mu'c lai s u a t ma cac d o a n h n g h i e p phai vay rat cao (14 - 2()'Y ), S u phoi h o p van h a n h "hai chiec m a y ham t i e n ' cho n e n k i n h te t h e o cach n h u vay lam cho no luc c h o n g lam p h a t va (in d i n h k m h t e vi m() kh(')ng t h e d a t hit'u q u a cao,
T o a n b(3 l a p l u a n n e u t r e n cho t h a y v a n de m a u chot t r o n g p h a t t n e n k i n h t e - ca n g a n b a n va t r u n g h a n cua Viet N a m la o' cach tu' d u y ve giai p h a p c h o n g lam p h a t , (in d i n h vi mo va kboi p h u e cac CO' so" t a n g t r m m g .
T r o n g n h u n g n a m q u a , \ ' u ' t N a m chl l;ip t r u n g keo lam p h a t xu(')ng chu' clura xiif ly cac n g u y e n n h a n co' han cua t m h t r a n g hat on vi mo va d a u t u k e m b i e u q u a . tai k h o a va chinh sach tien t e C h i n b vi tb(>, vong l u a n q u a n (CSTT) c u n g la n g u y e n n h a n l a m t r o n g c h u t n n h ' s u y g i a m t a n g cho t m h h i n h von da kh(j k h a n t r u o n g - b a t on va l a m p b a t " x u a t lai c a n g k h o va c h a m ducrc cai hien va d u y t r i . C h i phi de p h a vd' t h i e n . Viec d u a b a u n h u c h u y e u vong l u a n q u a n , vi t h e , d a n g vao cac cong cu C S T T , q u a n t a n g len. N b u n g t r a n g t h a i b a o t r p n g n h a t la lai s u a t , de c h d n g d o n g do ciing d a n g m d r a k h a l a m p h a t t r o n g k h i t h u - cbi n g a n n a n g va ca bpi dot p h a t u d u y cai s a c h n h a n u d c ( N S N N ) v a n tiep cach va p h a t t n e n .
t u c t a n g , m a c d u n e n k i n h te N h i n t d n g t h e v a d a i h a n ,
t a n g tru'o'ng k i n b te ciia Viet N a m van g i u ducrc n h u n g cp sff nen t a n g tot, Kb()ng phai ngiu iihicii ma t r o n g n h u n g n a m kho kh.in vua (]ua, C D P van duy tri t;ing t r u o n g o' m u c kh()ng thap bo'n .'"),.')'/f.
Con on d m b vi m('), d u dia chinh sach ve co' b a n van con dii
rong cliu k h ( ) n g q u a h e p n h u mot so v kien chi ra. D u dia do bao gom kh;i n a n g (va n h u cau) cat giain mirc Ihu chi ngan sach, kliong gian cai each be thdng p h a n bo n g u o n luc - de m a n g tinh till t n r ( m g b o n , m a n g tinh trpng t a m dot ph.i m a n h bon, bao d a m cbo k h u vuc t u n h a n it bi p h a n hiet doi x u va "chen lan°
D m h h u o n g cai each - dot pha n h u vay, ve n g u y e n ly la khong kho, n h a t la doi vol mot nudc di s a u n h u Viet N a m , N h u n g qua t n n h t h u c tien h a n h dpng. chac c h a n la k h o n g de d a n g , nhat la khi CO che p h a n bd nguon luc d a n g CO n h i e u t r u e trac va bi
"cam giu" hoT n h u n g nhom lgi ich k h a c n h a u ,
Diroi a p luc g a y gat ciia thiK tien va n h u cau h()i n h a p quocte, D a n g va (.'hmh p h u d a n g thiet ke cliuong t n n h t a i cof cau nen k m h ie m a n h m e va triet de. Do se la mot c h u o n g t n n h mang I m h l o n g t h e , h e t h o n g , vdi n h u i i g "toa dp d o t p h a " manh...
T i n h c a m k e t b a n b dpng cao Clia C h u o n g t r i n h la dieu ma C h i n b p h u d a t u d i n b cbo minh.
Dieu do m d r a co^ hpi \an cho mot giai d o a n b u t p h a v a biing no p h a t t r i e n m d i ciia Viet N a m . ®
1, Cugc khiing hoang tai chinh - kinh te toon cou 2008-2010 CO onh hurnig tieu cyc monh den Viet Nom, song khong phoi la nguyen nhon gioi thich xu the noi tren cua nen kinh te.
CHUNG KHOAN VIETNAM Sd 159+160- Thang 1+2/2012
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