V 6 N NGOAI "QUAY DAU"?
Khi tay mua theo ta...
N
gu nhu nhirng lln phgc hdl, ting digm trudc diy ciia nCK Vl$t Nam thudng do "lgc dCr" tu cic NDT nudc ngoll thl sg phgc hdl eiia lln niy hoin toin do vai trd eiia ele NDT ndi. Chlnh hinh ddng quygt Hgt eiia khdi ndi khign "tay" cung phll bit ngd vl tCr xu thg bin rdng, hg da chuygn sang mua rdng trgng thdi gian viia qua,,.Theo TS, QuIeh Manh Hlo, Phd Tdng glim ddc Cdng ty Chimg kholn Thang Long thi sg phgc hdl eiia TTCK Vigt Nam lln niy bit ngudn tC; NDT cl nhin, Khi nh|n thiy gil chimg kholn da tgt xudng qua thip, mdt lln sdng NDT cl nhin da lien tigp mua quan binh ed phlgu, tao mdt Igc 60 nhlt djnh cho thj trudng, CIc quygt djnh mua niy nh|n dugc sg img hd ciia TTCK thg gidl, nhlt II thj trudng My, da Idi kgg eac td ehiic khign hg khdng thg dimg ngoll cudc, va tdi thdi digm niy thi da sd td chirc, el trong vl ngoll nude dgu da tham gia thj truong vdi ele quygt djnh mua vio eiia minh,
Khdng nhimg ehlng ddng vai trd din dit nhu nhung lln trudc ma NDT nudc ngoli lln niy edn dugc ehinh NDT nOl keg vlg cudc.
Hinh ddng eiia cic quy ngoai cudl thing 3/2009 khi lien tigp mua vao ed phigu dugc chg la ehl nhlm keo gia trj tai sin rdng (NAV) len eao nhlm dg an, de ndi vdi eae ed ddng gdp vdn (theo quy djnh, ngay 31/3 hlng nam la ngay ehdt sd eiia cac quy ngoai dg bao cao dai hdi cd ddng), Tuy nhien, chang ngoxu thg nay lai dugc NDT ndi tan dgng, diy thj trudng tang "ndng himg hgc" vdi nhigu phien
NGUY§N H O A N G
sieu thanh kholn, Sau mdt hdi gin nhu chf dimg ngoli quan sit, NDT nudc ngoli da trd lai thj trudng kha manh me, tieu bigu la xu thg mua rdng gin 10 phien vdi tdng gll trj ien dgn hon 1,000 ty ddng trong nhung ngiy diu thing 5/2009,
Vg gil trj, vin II 10 cd phigu blue - chips nigm ygt tai HoSE dugc khdi nggai mua vio nhigu nhlt, dd la: Nhiet dien Phi Lai (PPC), Dam Phil My (DPM), T|p doan Hda Phit (HPG), FPT, Chimg
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Duac, mat
ttr v6n ngoai
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Su bung no cua von ngoai da lam cho quy mo cua TTCK Viet Nam tang manh va tr(D'thanh mot trong nhQng thi truong moi noi hap d^n nhat chau A. Khung hoang van chua qua di va day co le la thoi diem de nhin nhan lai nhung "dugc, mat" tu dong von nay.
Ovoc...
Khdng qua khd dg nhan thiy t i m quan trgng eiia vdn ngoai ddi vd'l TTCK Viet Nam, Ra ddi tii nlm 2000, trong mdt thdi gian dli, chimg khoan vin xa la ddi vdi ngudi din, Tuy nhien, tir nlm 2006, sg xuat hien eua hlng loat cac NOT ngoai, d|c biet la eic quy diu tu, da thdi mdt ludng gid mdi vao TTCK, Tim quan trgng v l anh hudng ciia vdn ngoai ddi vdi NOT ndi ndi hgng va TTCK ndi chung Idn dgn mirc cd thdi diem, vdn ngoai din dit thi trudng
v l ele NOT ndi ehl hinh ddng theo NOT ngoai. Trong nhiing thdi di^m khd khan, vdn ngoai da tao nigm tin eho ele NOT ndi tigp tgc bim trg vdi thj trudng. Nhu mdt chuyen gia kinh tg timg vi vgn: Khdng qui ldi khi ndi ring, "hinh hii" TTCKVi$t Nam ngiy hdm nay, khdng ai khie chinh nhd "bin tay chim b i m " cua cac NOT ngoai. Thlnn ehi, mdt sd chuyen gia cdn cho ring, ngu kinh tg thg gidi khdng roi vio suy tholi, TTCK Vi0t Nam edn tang trudng cao nua v l mgc tieu ddng gdp
40% GDP ciia thj trudng niy ma cic nha Ilm ehinh saeh tung nghT dgn khdng phal II qui xa xdi. Khdng chi gdp phin quan trgng trong viee tang trudng kinh tg dli han, vdn ngoai cung da giiip tang lugng dg tru ngoai hdl, cho phgp ngn kinh te tang ty 1$ diu tu m l khdng chf hoin toin dya vlg ngudn tigt kiem trong nudc.
Quan trgng hon ca - vdn ngoai da giiip DNNN dugc cd phin hda hgat ddng higu qua nhd tigp can ngudn t l i chinh, edng nghe hi$n dai cung nhu nang lgc quin li
So 6/2009
TI^UDIEM
khgin Sli Gdn (SSI), Sacgmbank (STB), Tli ehinh Diu khi (PVF), Sira Viet Nam (VNM)„, Tdng gil trj mua vio ciia 10 ma nay dat trgn 3,000 ty ddng, ldn hon diing 1.000 ty ddng so vdi tdng gil trj bin ra ciia 10 ma nay trong cimg ky. Ma dugc mua vao nhigu nhlt II FPT vdi gil tri hon 510 ty ddng, cao hon 270 ty ddng so vdi gll trj ciia ma nay bj bin ra trong ky.
Thdng ke vg kim ngach giao djch cho thiy, khdi ngoai giao djch sdi ddng nhlt vdi ed phlgu Dugc H|u Giang (DHG), Kim ngach glao djch tren ma niy vugt qua con sd 100% cho thiy tii diu nam dgn nay, NOT nudc ngoai da mua vao, bin ra lien tgc ma nay, Ngoll ele ma blue - chips quen thudc, thdng ke vg kim ngach glao djch eiia NOT nudc ngoai cung xuit hien d Nhi Thii Due (TDH), Pin Ac Quy mign Nam (PAC), Dugc Phim Imexpharm (IPM),,,
Tuy nhien, khi thj trudng vugt miic 500 digm, trong mdt sd phien thj trudng tang qui "ndng" diu thing 6/2009, NDT nudc ngoll da trd lai xu thg bin rdng manh me nhlm thu Igi nhu|n ngin han, Theo chuyen gia chimg kholn Ken Tai (Cdng ty Chirng khoan Kim Eng) thi xu the mua vio, bin ra lien tgc ciia khdi ngoai cd the xuit phit tii mdt sd quy diu eo mdi tham gia thj trudng Vigt Nam, Oly 11 ludng tien mdi, xul't phit tCr chinh sleh ndi Idng tin dung ciia My dd bd vio ele thj trudng mdi ndi dg tim kigm eo hdi, Vi vay, tinh dn djnh v l ben vung ciia ludng vdn giln tigp niy cln
phli ehd thdi gian kiem djnh, *
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trinh dp cao, Ben canh dd, cac DN niem yet cung cd dieu kien tigp cln ngudn vdn ben nggai, tan dgng de diu tu md rdng san xuat kinh doanh, gilm chi phi vdn vay.,, Nhung dgt IPO thinh edng trong nlm 2006 va nira nam 2007 da chimg minh digu nay khi rit nhigu DN tign hanh IPQ da thu hiit dugc mdt lugng vdn Idn de phgc vg cho md rdng hoat ddng sin xuit, kinh doanh. Hi^n nay, ele DN dang ed co hdi rat Idn d^ huy ddng vdn d thj trudng trong nudc v l qude tg thdng qua kenh niy. Ding mung hon, vdn ngoai
eung da tao sirc ep tich cge d^ viec quin ly v l quin trj DN phit hinh chimg khoan thgc hien nghiem tiic, hieu qui hon do yeu clu vg blo clo tli chlnh DN vl minh bach hda, elp nh|t hda thdng tin lien quan mgt each nhanh chdng, chinh xic.
Nggll ra, phli ke den mdt "eli dugc"
rat Idn khic, dd II sg gia ting ddng vdn nggai da keg theo sg phat trl^n nd rd ele djnh chg va djch vg t l i chlnh - chimg khgIn, trudc hgt II ele loai quy diu tu, cdng ty t l i chinh, kiem toin... Hien nay.
tren TTCK Vi$t Nam cd dgn hlng tram quy diu tu, ele cdng ty quin li quy Hen doanh v l nudc ngoli. Die biet, cdng ty chuyen vg djch vg tu vin, hd trg tu phip v l hd trg kinh doanh, xie djnh he sd tin nhiem, blo hlgm, kg toin, kigm toin va thdng tin thj trudng hlng diu tren thg gidl cung dang tim dgn Vigt Nam ngiy cing nhieu, tao nen sg sdi ddng cho thj trudng tai chinh Viet Nam ndi chung vl TTCK ndi rieng,
... vd mat
Tuy nhien, theo ele chuyen gia kinh tg, vdn ngoai cung giy ra khdng it Ip Igc dn djnh kinh tg vl md, tir dd anh hudng tieu cge dgn su phit trign bgn vQng ciia TTCK Viet Nam, Nhung he Igy de thay, dd II: Ip Igc tao du thiia vdn khi dgng din dgn lam phit, gia tang mirc dd lam phit, tf gia bien ddng manh, de dga xuat khau, Ilm bien dpng v l thay ddi co clu tai trg, Ilm mit can ddi cln cln thanh toan qudc te,,, Ngoll ra, sgtang ndng ciia ludng vdn ngoai da Inh hudng khdng tdt den khi nang quan ly vdn eiia eac ngan hang (do he thdng ngin hlng ehua phat trien), v l die biet do quy md nen kinh te nudc ta ehua dil kha nang hap thu cung nhu sir dgng hieu qua ngudn vdn, gay ra nhtrng khd khan trong vlec hoach djnh chinh sach vT md,
6 nudc ta, nhung diu hieu tieu cge tii anh hudng ciia vdn ngoai the hien khi ro trong nhimg nam qua, Tir nam 2004 dgn nay, ciing vdl kha nang tg md rdng eiia lam phat cdng vdi tie ddng eiia gia diu vio v l d|c biet la sirc ep tC: ddng vdn ngoai vio TTCK lam phat dudng nhu ngay cing khd kiem soit hon, Hon nua, trudc thuc te thang du cln cln vdn (vdn vay v l ludng diu tu giiia trong va ngoli nudc, nhtmg khoan tin dgng thuong mai v l vay ngin han), diu nam 2007, Ngan hlng Nhi nudc (NHNN) da diing ddng ndi te (VND) ra mua ngoai te vio dg ting dg tru qudc gia, khign mgt lugng tlgn VND khi Idn dua ra luu thdng, giy ap Igc len lam phat. Ben canh dd, cd thdi diem, dg USD vlg nhigu, nhu clu bin USD lay VND eiia ele NDT, DN nhlp khau v l c l nhin ngiy cang tang trgng nhung thing cudi nlm, trgng khi dd NHNN lai han chg viec mua USD tCr ngin hang thucmg mai (NHTM) khign mdt sd NHTM thC/a USD va khdng cd kha nang mua hgt lugng USD chg khach hang ban ra.
(Xem tiep trang 32)
S6 6/2009
Taichwh. 9
V A N HOA X A H O I
nhung vi smh ngoai nen van mua. Mdy nliu chuyen gan day, b<Kj chi dua tin do tam ly chuong stra ngoai, ngudi Vift dr'i bi moc tui
"tin bag" ml khdng hg hay bigt. Digu nguy hai hon el II tim ly chudng hlng ngoai tai thi trudng ndi dja dang II d n trd Idn nhlt trong vigc gitr thj phin ciia d c nhi sin xuit trong nudc. Th|t vd II khi quin Jean xuit khiu di Au, My khi dugc ua chudng thi ngudi trong nudc lai cir tim mua quin jean ngoai vdi gll dit hon nhigu lln. Hon ntra, trong khi Chlnh phii dang nd Ige kich clu sin xuit, tieu dung trong nudc, thi hlng hda Trung Qudc lai dd vio nudc ta nhu "con lu", vd hinh trung tao thinh nhtrng "ggng kim" silt chat, bdp nghet sin xuit trong nudc.
Hien nay, Chlnh phii dang ra sirc keu ggi "Ngudi Viet Nam dung hlng Viet Nam" Sgng phgng trig dd vin chua thl dl vlg cudc sdng, chua lay chuyin duge thdi quen sinh hlng nggai. Gid diy, trudc nhtrng thir thieh khd khan eiia dit nudc, ed t h l Inh hudng trgc tilp din cudc sdng cua ngudi din, bilu hien rd rgt Idng yeu nude eiia minh, mdi ngudi Viet d n neu cag tinh thin:
"Ngudi Viet Nam dung hlng Viet Nam". Od cung II sg t h l hien tinh thin doan kit gltra ngudi lao ddng v l ele doanh nghlgp, eung nhau chia se khd khan va tag ddng Igc tigp tgc chin hung
kinh tg nudc nhi. 4
LANG PHI DIEN.
Phat!
HANG MINH
Mot thf)ng di^p ro r^ng va dirt khoat vi/a dugc lien bg Tai rhiiiti vri C6ng Thuong dua ra: Tugiua thang 7 tradi, neu muc do su dung di^n tai cac ca quan Nha nuoc a o hon muc flrinq ky (do cac nguydn nhan chu quan), nguoi gay lang phi phai boi thu(:)ng. DSy la mOt trong nhung viec "chang dung"
nham ch^m dut hi^n tugng rat v6 li hi^n nay: La qu6c gia ngheo, song Vi^t Nam lai thuOc t6p cac qudc gia lang phi di^n hang d^u th^ gi(}i.
N
himg phin tich mdi day cua Bd Cdng Thuong cho thiy cd nhigu vin dg ding to ngai: Sin lugng tigu thg dign cho sin xuit thing 5/2009 lln diu tign da tang sau nhilu thang suy gilm, gay l p luc Ign ngudn cung dign nang khi miia cag digm mdi bit diu. Ngay tu cudi thing 4, bit diu vio he, sin lugng dign da tang rit cao, cd ngiy dat 260,2 trigu KWh.Hgt thing 5, lugng dign tigu thu da la 6,97 ty KWh, tang 4,7% so vdi cung ky nam ngoai, trong do dien phgc vu quan ly va tieu diJng tang 10,3% va vin chigm 41,4% ty trong. Digu dd cho thiy, nhu d u dign eho quin ly vl tieu dung dan cu vin tang eao nlu ngn nhigt dd binh quin tang len. Ding lo II hign nay, EVN gin nhu da phli
"chay" hgt edng suit ele ngudn huy ddng dien nang, ttr sin lupng Idn nhigt dien v l tuabin khi chay diu DO, chay diesel dgn dc ngudn dien bj coi II "dit dd" ben ngoai EVN nhu Hiep Phudc, Cii Hn...
Dang lo ngai hon, theo EVN, he thdng dien ehua cd cdng suit d\f phdng trong khi theo dg bao, then tiet vao cac thing cudi miia khd cd nhigu dign bign bit thudng, ning ndng d miln Ble se khiln phy tli tang cao, tinh trang thigu dien cd t h l cang thing. Cd le, dnh dt
Khi nang chu chuygn ngoai tg trong Inen kinh tg bj Ich tie, tinh trang "dd la Ihoa" ngn kinh tg them trim trgng. Tit Inhien, nhtmg bit dn trong kinh tg vi md Ida kgo theo Inh hudng tigu cge dgn TTCK 1ml sg suy giam bit diu ttr cudi nlm 2007 Idgn nay thi al eung thiy rd.
Vdi d|e tinh thanh kholn eao, d l ddi chigu, vdn ngoai dg ding md rdng hole thu hep d l rut vdn hole chuyin sang diu tu ele thi trudng khae. Oly ehinh II nguyen nhin hlng diu giy nen nguy eo khuleh dai dd nhay elm vl chin ddng eiia ddng vdn ngoai ddi vdi nin kinh t l eua nudc ta, die biet khi viOc ehuyin ddi v l riit vdn diu tu giln tilp ndi tren diln ra theo kilu "thio chay" ddng loat tren pham vi rdng va sd lugng Idn. 6 nudc ta, da cd thdi dilm TTCK tgt sau dg thdng tin d c NOT
ngoai x l hang d l tholi vdn. Hay nhtrng thdng tin STB, TAC... bj d e NOT ngoai bin thio d n g khiln eho thj trudng vdn da Im dim d n g tgt ddc sau hon. Trong hon mdt nam qua, hiu hit d c quy diu tu nudc ngoli d Vigt Nam diu bi Id n|ng.
Mdt trong nhtmg ndi lo khic hlgn nay II vdn ngoai khdng ehi khign Viet Nam ddi m|t vdi nguy co v l tic hai eiia d c hoat ddng diu co, long doan kinh tg v l vi pham ele quy djnh phip ly m l cdn II minh dit mlu md ciia d c loai tdi pham kinh tg cd ygu td nudc ngoli, xuygn qudc gia nhu:
Itra dio, rira tidn... Nhtrng hoat ddng niy cdng vdi mat trii ciia ddng vdn ngoai (thanh kholn eao, d l ddi chidu) se gay tdn hai tdi mdi trudng kinh doanh Ilnh manh v l Ilm tang tinh d l tdn thuong ciia nin kinh tg nudc ta trong bdi d n h toin clu
hda hign nay. Du hi$n nay ehua cd trudng hgp nio dign ra tren TTCK VN (d My, tieu bilu II vg sieu Itra Madoff v l vu be bdi mdi nhlt lien quan din T|p doan tai chinh Countrywide Financial Corp), song do nudc ta dang ttmg btrdc tg do hda tli chlnh nen khi nang ddi m|t vdi d c loai toi pham kinh t l nay la rat cao.
IJngxvthlndo?
Ddng vdn ngoai rd rang dem din rit nhilu Igi ich nhung cQng gay khdng it tic ddng tieu cge khi thj trudng tli ehinh gip biln ddng Idn. Theo d c chuyen gia kinh te, v l phuong dign ly thuyit, ed hai hinh thiic kilm soit vdn ngoai: Kilm soit vdn trgc tilp (mang tinh hinh ehinh) v l kilm soit dga tren cosd thj trudng. Phuong thirc trgc tilp han chi nhtrng giag djch vdn, nhtrng