K h o a hoc Si Ddi song
Tdc dpng cua bien doi khi hgu todn cdu
Tac dgng toan cau nhflng ldi ich qud'c gia Bie'n ddi khi hau (BDKH) toan cau la vd'n de dffdc de cap de'n tren cdc dien dan qud'c te' tfl it nhd't vdi thap ky qua va sfl ndng len cua khi hdu la bie'u hien dffdc ndi de'n nhieu nha't. Tuy nhien, lan dau tien, trong bdo cdo 2007, Uy ban Lien Chinh phu ve bie'n dd'i khi hdu (IPCC) mdi thffa nhan sff ndng len cua khi hdu la van de khdng cdn phai nghi ngd (unequivocal) gi nffa. Mac du vay, cung
chffa cd bdo cao nao cua IPCC cho rang BDKH toan cau la he qua td't ye'u ciia sff phdt trien kinh te' thdi hdu hien dai, giai doan ma sfl phan di gidu ngheo cung nhff sff phdn di vl Iffdng khi nhd kinh phdt thai giffa cdc qud'c gia dang gia tang.
Trong khi cdc diln dan ve phdt trien ben vffng lai ludn ndi ve md hinh "cung thdng" (win-win) thi cung chffa thd'y IPCC ndi ve nguy cd phdn di dffdc-md't giffa cac qud'c gia cdng nghiep phdt trie'n vd cac qud'c gia dang phdt ttien trong giam thieu phdt thai khi nha kinh.
Cdng ddng qud'c te' da cd nhieu nd life de giam thieu tdc ddng cua BDKH todn cau va UNFCCC (Chffdng ttinh khung ve BDKH cua Lien Hdp Qud'c), cd hieu Iffc tff thdng 3 nam 1994, la
mdt bieu hien. IPCC da trd thanh dien dan toan cau quan trgng trong ddnh gid, ffng phd vd thieh nghi vdi tac dgng cua BDKH toan cau. Tuy nhien, Bao eao cua Nhdm cdng tdc III thudc IPCC, 2007 cung thffa nhdn, vdi cdc ehinh sach giam thieu tac ddng cua BDKH hien nay vd vdi cac hoat dgng Hen quan de'n phat trien ben vffng thi khi nha kinh se cdn tie'p tuc tang trong vai thdp ky tdi. Nghi dinh thff Kyoto dffdc phe chuan nam 1997, cd hieu Iffc nam 2005 va dd sap he't hieu Iffc nhifng vdn cdn tdn tai hang loat bat ddng giffa cac qud'c gia, ddc biet la giffa cdc qud'c gia cd nen cdng nghiep phdt ttien vd qud'c gia dang phdt tiien.
Tinh de'n thdng gieng 2007 dd cd 168 qud'c gia vd Cong ddng kinh te' chau Au dd ky vao Nghi
PHAM VAN CU
dinh thff nay. Theo IPCC, 3/4 Iffdng C02 phat thai vao khi quyen la do viec sff dung nhien lieu hda thach, phan cdn lai la do viec chat pha rffng. Theo Nghi dinh thff Kyoto, de'n 2012, Iffdng khi nha kinh phat thai vdo khi quyen phai giam di 5,2% so vdi mffc phat thai nam 1990.
Tren thffc te', chi rieng Hoa Ky va cac qud'c gia thugc Cdng ddng chdu Au, vdi dan so' chie'm 10% dan so' toan eau, da thai vao khi quyen 45%
tdng Iffdng C02 todn cau (Heidi Baehram, Climate Fraud and Carbon Colonialism: The New Trade in Greenhouse Gases. CapitaHsm Nature SociaHsm, Vol 15, No. 12/
2004).
Theo quan diem eua IPCC (Bdo cdo 2007) sffc manh cua Nghi dinh thff nam d dieu khoan ve cd che' thi trffdng trong thffdng mai phdt thai khi nha kinh. Chinh ed che' mang tinh khich le sff tdi phan bd chi tieu (quota) phat thai nay lai ham chffa nhieu thdeh thffc vd mdt ttong sd' do la nhieu nen kinh te'phdt thai khi nha kinh ldn nhd't van chffa phe chuan Nghi dinh thff Kyoto (Bao cdo ciia Nhdm cdng tdc III IPCC). Vdi bdi canh nhff vay lieu cd nen hieu Id dd'i vdi tffng qud'c gia bie'n ddi khi hdu thi mang tinh toan cau nhffng ldi ich thi lai van mang tinh qud'c gia.
Khoa hoc
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K h o a hoc S. D d i ^ o n g
Nfldc ngheo ludn hi thiet thoi?
Va cd mdt cau hdi can dflde ddt ra: Lieu cd nguy cd xud't hien chii nghia thffc dan mdi ttong viec giam thieu Iffdng khi nhd kinh do con ngffdi thai vao khi quyen?
Hay xem xet mgt vai khia canh cua cdc nd life giam thieu vd flng phd vdi bie'n ddi khi hau ciia cdc qud'c gia.
Nhieu nffdc ngheo se chiu nhieu tae ddng ciia BDKH, ddc biet la viec nffdc bien dang cao gdy lut ldi. Minh hga cua em be
11 tudi ngffdi Bangladesh . Khia canh thff nhd't: Thdng qua cd che' phat trie'n sach CDM
(Clean Development Mechanism). Chffdng trinh CDM,
cae nffdc cd Iffdng khi nha kinh giam thie'u se dffdc cap Chffng chi xac nhdn giam phdt thai (Certified Emission Reduction CER) hay cdn dffdc ggi la Chffng chi carbon. Mdt khi ed dffdc CER, nffdc nay cd the chuyen nhffdng quyen phdt thai cho cdc nffdc khde de' nhdn dffdc mgt he qua kep. Dd la cd thu nhdp tff viec chuyen nhffdng CER va thffc hien dflde Phdt trie'n sach, phan nao ddng nghia vdi Phdt trie'n ben vflng.
Cd the thd'y ngay quyen phdt thai dd trd thdnh mdt loai hinh tdi nguyen mdi, ham chfla nhieu y nghia xa hgi hdn bdt cfl tdi nguyen ndo. De tang ngudn tai ehinh cua minh, cdc nfldc kem phat trie'n se phai bdn tai nguyen nay cho cdc nfldc phdt trien hdn.
Cdc nfldc tieu thu nhieu dau nhd't the' gidi nhff My (20,6 trieu thung/ngay), Nhdt Ban (5,2 trieu thung/ngay) chae chan thudc nhdm phdt thai ldn nhd't vd hg cd nhu cau mua tdi nguyen phat thai cua cdc nffdc khdc, ddc biet tff cac nffdc cd nen cdng nghiep kem phat trie'n. Cau hdi ddt ra la: Bao
gid thi tdi nguyen dac biet nay d cac nffdc ngheo se can kiet trffdc khi hg dat dffdc muc tieu phdt trien ben vffng?
Khia canh thff hai: Dd la khuynh hffdng xud't khau cdng nghg "kem sach", thdm chi cdng nghg d nhiim sang cdc nffdc ngheo va nhdp khau san pham tieu dung dffdc san xua't tai cac nffdc dang phdt trie'n. Rd't nhieu nffdc dang phdt trien Id'y xud't khd'u lam ddng Iflc kinh te' trong giai doan dau. Cae nfldc dang phat trien thi lai cd nhu eau nhdp kha'u cdng nghg tfl cac nUdc gidu khdng loai trfl cdng nghe gay d nhiim nhU day chuyen lap rdp xe hdi vdi chuan phdt thai da ldi thdi, nhu cdc cdng nghe khai khoang da ngffng sff dung d cae nffdc giau... Xud't khau rdc thai tfl cdc nfldc gidu sang cdc nfldc dang phat trien cung la mdt khuynh hudng md cdng ddng qud'c te' da canh bdo.
Khia canh thfl ba: Khuynh hudng phdt trien nhien Heu sinh hgc (biofuel) Id loai nhien Heu sfl dung ngii cdc lam nguyen lieu.
Cdc nfldc giau, di dau la My, dang nd Iflc tim cdch thay the' nhien Heu hda thach bang nhien lieu sinh hgc. Chi rieng ndm 2007, dien tich ngd d My dd dat tten 37 ttieu ha, tdng 19% so vdi 2006.
Tuy nhien, lai xud't phat tff ldi ich kinh te', Iffdng ethanol san xud't tfl ngu cdc cua My dUde diing de xud't khau sang chau Au Id chinh, ndi cd gid cao hdn d My. Mat khdc cua van d l d chd la tai nhieu qud'c gia ngheo, ddc biet d chdu Phi, nan ddi vdn dang hoanh hdnh, thi ngu cdc d cac nfldc giau cd the lai dflde dung de' san xua't ethanol chay xe hdi. Trong khi dd, vdi thdp ky trd lai day chUa bao gid quan sdt tha'y xu hfldng giam gid cua Ifldng thu'c vd tren cac
d i l n dan ve bie'n ddi toan cau ngfldi ta ndi rd't nhieu de'n tac dgng cua bie'n ddi khi hdu de'n nguy cd ngheo ddi hoac tai ngheo cua nhieu qud'c gia ngheo. Lien Hdp Qud'c cdn quan ngai Id Muc tieu thien nien ky se khdng dat dflde do tdc ddng cua bie'n ddi khi hdu. Cdu hdi ddt ra la: Trong nd Iflc giam thieu phdt thai khi nha kinh cua toan the' gidi thi nd Iffc san xua't nhien Heu sach d cdc nffdc gidu va nd Iflc xda ddi giam ngheo d cdc qud'c gia ngheo lieu cd the song hanh dflde vdi nhau khdng?
Trong bdi canh cua bie'n ddi khi hdu, IPCC cting neu nguyen tac ddng phdt trien (co-develop- ment) nhu mdt ttong cdc giai phdp nham dat sfl cdn bang giffa cdc nffdc phdt ttie'n va cdc nffdc dang phdt trien de dam bao phdt trien ben vffng (Payne Anthony. 2005, The Global PoHtics of Unequal Development, New York, Palgrave Macmillan). Tuy nhien, tten thffc te', de dat dffdc ttinh do phdt trien nhff ngay nay, cdc nffdc phat thin da trai qua ba giai doan:
Nffa sau the'ky 19 de'n dau the' ky 20 la giai doan cdch mang cdng nghigp vdi sff tdng trffdng hoang da (wild growth).
Tfl nhflng nam 70 de'n nay la giai doan thie't lap phiic ldi.
Tfl nhflng ndm 70 trd lai ddy Id giai doan tdng sfl quan tdm de'n mdi trudng. Cd dieu gi dam bao de giam thieu sfl khdc biet ve phdt trien giffa hai nhdm qud'c gia:
Nhdm phu luc I vd Nhdm phu luc II cua Nghi dinh thfl Kyoto khi ma lich sfl phdt tiien kinh te' cua hai Nhdm phu luc nay la ra't khdc nhau.
* Trung tdm Qudc te nghien cdu bie'n ddi todn cdu. Dgi hgc Qudc gia, Hd Ngi.
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