TftNC HOI PHUC TRUdC KHI GIAM MANH
N G U Y J N THI BfCH HOA. N G U Y I N H O N G Q U A N Chi nhanh tql Thanh phd' Ho Ch! tvlinh
Trung tdm Thdng tin va DiJ bao kinh te' - xd hpi qud'c gia
In 2011, worid gold market experienced an impressive year of trans- action and gold price recorded 11th consecutive annual price increase.
2011 also witnessed historical fluctuations of gold price, which surprised investors. This fluctuation usually closely linked with glotjai economic events such as sovereign debt in Europe, USD depreciation, US credit rat- ing downgrade...
Using technical analyses, worid gold price in 2012 is likely to plunge.
In the first months ot 2012, gold price Is expected to recover and then gradually fall to 1.400 or even to 1,300 USD an ounce.
In domestic market, gold price will rise and tali in line with world price but there still exists the gap between domestic and international prices In 2012, gold is predicted to remain attractive and efficient investment channel under the context of gloomy real estate and stock markets.
1 . Tong hop t h i t r u d n g v a n g t h e gidi n a m 2 0 1 1 : Soi d f n g ! C i l v i n g the gidi da trai qua mot n a m giao djeh d l y I'n tUOng. Tfnh den het n a m 2 0 1 1 , v i n g da d i n h d l ' u n a m tang g i i t h d 11 lien t i e p , t d 251 USD/ounce trong n a m 2001 len mde ky luc hon 1.900 USD/ounce (dupe x i c l | p v i o ngay 0 6 / 9 / 2 0 1 1 ) v l cung I I nam ed bien dp giao dieh ldn nhat trong ljch sd. Theo I h d n g ke, g i i tri cua v i n g da tang g i n 1 2 % vdi mde g i i d d n g cda la 1.568 USD/ounce so vdi g i i m d cda 1.417 USD/ounce cua n a m .
G i l v i n g the gidi n a m 2011 t h U c s U d a khien cho gidi d a u t U c h o I n g v i n g vdi mde dp bien d o n g trong n a m 2 0 1 1 . Cd t h d i d i e m , c h i trong vdng 2 t h i n g ( t h i n g 7, 8), g i i v i n g da tang tdi hon 4 3 0 USD/ounce, nhUng gan n h u ngay lap tdc ( t h i n g 9), g i i v i n g lai g i i m tdi gan 4 0 0 USD/ounce. Cd rat n h i e u yeu t d t r i i chieu t i c d p n g tdi t h j trUdng t l i ehinh ndi ehung va thj IrUdng v a n g ndi rieng khien cho v a n g n h i e u ldc
tien t h o l i ludng n a n "
Bien d d n g cua thj IrUdng vang ludn g i n lien vdi nhdng dien bien k i n h te the g i d i , vdi c l e sd k i f n ndi bat sau:
Khung hoang no cong chau Au
D a y khdng e h l la sU k i f n ndi bat trong n a m qua ma cdn la van de dai d i n g eua kinh te loan cau sudl 3 n a m nay. Chau Au dang d d n g b e n b d vUc cua khung h o i n g , " t i n h m a n g " ddng EUR d a n g bj de dpa? Day la cau hdi chUa cd Idi g i i i d a p v l h i f n dang gay nhdc nhdi chp h f thdng iai e h i n h the g i d i . Khu vUc ddng EUR t i e p tue ddi mat vdi thUe te la mot sd t b l n h v i e n cua Khdi khdng d i m b l o duoe c l e t r i c h n h i f m va nghTa vu tai c h i n h gidng nhU e l e qud'c gia k h i c . N h d n g van de ve e h l u A u gidng nbU d i m may u i m bao p h u len t o l n bp nen kinh le loan cau trong n h i e u n a m qua v l cd the se t i e p tyc duy tri l i n h trang nay Irong n h i d u nam t d i . Tuy n h i e n , dieu d i n g lo hon e l la cupc khung h o i n g np cdng n i y dang de dpa Idi sU tdn tai eua ddng l i e n ehung chau A u , khien cho c b i n h trUdng nhieu nUdc chau
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Au chao d i o , bufc nhieu chfnh phu p h l i giai t j n va tac ddng tieu cue den qua trinh hdi phuc eua kinh te loan cau vdn dT da mong manh va tri trf.
Dong USD
Trong 4 thang dau nam 2011, ddng USD lien tuc g i i m g i i . Khoing nda nam sau 2011, ddng USD bat ngd d i n la'y lai vj the eua minh: dien hinh td thing 5-12, USD Index da ed 6 thang tang g i i , gly I p lUc g i i m g i i len v i n g , tuy nhien, cung luc dd vang lai chju tie dpng tang g i i Id khung hoing no chiu Au khie'n thj IrUdng "hdn loan" vang ludn dUpc coi I I "sit nhan giau mat" eua ddng USD, vi lai thdi diem khung hoing t l i chinh toln eau, v i n g mdi cd du vai Ird v l trpng lUpng l l m thay ddi quy luat phy thupc v i o ddng USD cua ele nen kinh te khIe m l khdng loai tien tf nao ed the d i m duong ndi. V i o eudi nam 2011, Cyc Dd trd Lien bang My (FED) da phdi hop vdi 5 Ngan h i n g Tmng uong ldn (bao gdm Ngan hing Trung UOng ehlu Au, N g i n hing Trung UOng Canada, Anh, Nhat Bin va Thuy Sy) cung el'p ihanh kholn eho thj IrUdng b i n g c l e kholn vay USD re bon. C i l vang tiep lyc d l g i i m g i i id dau Ihang 11.
My bi ba xip hang tin dung Tham byt ngan sleh cua My linh den quy 11/2011 la 970,52 ly USD, g i i m 33,5 ty USD, tUOng duong 3,3% so vdi cung ky nam 2010. Bp T l i chfnh My di/ b l o , t h i m hyt ngin sleh lien bang trong c l nam 2011 cd the len tdi 1.650 ly USD, d i n h day nam thd
3 lien tiep vUpt mde 1.000 ty USD. No edng cua My tiep lye tang eao.
Sau mot Ihdi gian Iranh cai, Qudc hdi My eung da dat dupe thda thuan nang t r i n no edng eua My them 2.400 ty USD nham tranh eho nddc My roi vao vd nd. Day cung la mpt trong nhdng nguyen nhan da da'y gia vang len mde ky lye 1.920 USD/ounce vao ngay 06/9/2011. Ben eanh dd, linh binh tha't nghifp duy tri d mde eao va c l e cupc bieu tinh
"Chiem phd Wall" eho tha'y khung hoang ben trong Idng xa hpi My.
Nhdng du b l o eua EIU v i n eho rang ly If that nghifp eua nUde My se duy tri d mde tren 9% trong nhdng nam tdi da khien cho nhieu nha d i u IU hoang mang, khdng edn tin tUdng vao Chfnh phu va tiep lye lim den nhdng kim loai quy.
Ngay 5/8, td chdc danh gia tin dung qudc te Standard&Poor's (S&P) da ha bac xep hang tin dyng cua My td AAA xudng edn AA-i- kem theo d i n h gia trien vpng lieu eUe. Day la lan dau lien My bj mat xep hang AAA. Nguyen nhan cbu yeu 11 do thda thu|n nang mde trin np cua Chinh phu va Qudc hpi My khd duy tri dUOc dn djnh np trong trung han.
CIc phuong t i f n tmyen thdng cho biel, vifc S&P ha b|e xep hang tfn dyng eua My da lam xdi mdn niem tin cua e i c nha d i u IU qudc le vao nen kinh te d i u t l u the gidi.
Cic ngin hang trung UOng va cic nha dau ta tiip tuc dm vang Ngan hang trung UOng thudng la "kho" vang cua loan the gidi va Ihudng xuyen sd dung luong vang khdng Id Irong kho de dieu liet thj trudng, qua dd gid g i i vang d mde khdng q u i "ndng" Tuy nhien, trong bdi eInh bao g i i keo dai, lUpng vang dU Ird eung dan can kift, Irong khi ngudn eung ngay eang ban hep. Hdi h i gom vang khdng kem ele ngin hing trung UOng la eae nha d i u tU nhd 1^, dae bift tai chau A.
Theo hang tin CNBC, gidi d i u IU eua ehlu lue nay lien tyc mua gom v i n g , b i t c h i p g i i vang da tang gap g i n ba lan trong 5 nam trd lai d l y v l bien dpng manh trong may t h i n g qua. Do dd, ve mat ly thuyei.
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"ngdi yen", khdng it ngan bang tmng UOng eua cic nen kinh te "gom"
vang eua cac quy d i u tU b i n g each da dang dU trd b i n g vang do lo ngai cho sU an nguy eua qudc gia. Dpng thai nay vo hinh ehung da da'y gia vang len eao hon, di nguoe lai vdi nhifm vu ban d i u cua cae ngan bing.
Cic yiu td khic
Yiu ti chinh tri: Nhdng thang d i u nam, lien tuc nhdng thdng tin xa'u td ba't dn ehinh trj nd ra d Trung Ddng v l Bae Phi (eu the I I tai Ixraen, Iran va da lan tUTuynidi, Ai Cap sang Libi, Baranh, Yemen,...), cung vdi thien tai d Nhat B i n , Id lyt d T h i i Lan da khien gia vang lien tyc leo ihang.
Chinh sach tiin te Idng lea cua cac ngan hang trung aang: Chinh nhdng chfnh sleh khdng hpp ly va rd rang da khien eho cae nha dau tu khdng cdn lin vao k h i nang hdi phye kinh te va hp da ehuyen sang vang nhu mpt tai sin an toln cho danh myc d i u tU cua minh.
Lam phat toan ciu ting cao khi ma gia diu vin tiip tuc di len. CIc loai hing hda khic eung tang cao sit mde ky lyc. Nguyen nhin ehinh la do ehfnh sleh lien If tai cic qud'c gia da tao nguy eo lam p h i t tang cao. Vai trd trd ihanh "ddng lien thay the" de b l o l o i n sdc mua eua vang luc nay duoe ele nha d i u IU d i n h g i i eao. V i n g tiep lye dUpc lUa chpn lam noi tru an thdi lam p b l l , kbi m l lam phit d mpt loat c l e trung lam ldn cua kinh le the gidi nhU My, EU, An Dp va dac bift la Trung Qudc dang leo Ihang chdng mat.
Nhin ehung, kinh te the gidi trong nam 2011 v i n dang liep tuc
"chdng I r l " vdi cupc khung hoing kinh te Idn nha't ke id cudc suy tboli thap nien 1930. Gia v i n g the gidi trong nam 2011 da duy tri d l tang 10 nam trUde dd va liep lye khang djnh vj the vdn cd cua minh.
2. Thj trUdng vang the gidi nSm 2012
Cudi nam 2011, gia v i n g da g i i m khoing 18% so vdi mde dinh bdi thing 9, nhUng v i n tang khoing 12% so vdi mde ddng cda cua nam 2010. Vdi mde tang g i i n i y , vang van n i m trong sd nhufng t l i sin ed mde tang g i i manh nhl'l trong nam 2011. Ri't nhieu n h i quan s l i tbj trudng giiu kinh nghifm v l gidi dau tU cbo ring, v i n g cd the tiep tuc duy Iri xu the g i i m hoac di ngang trong thdi gian dau nam 2012, nhUng nhdng yeu td nen t i n g eho sdc manh eua v i n g hifn v i n cdn tdn tai.
Nhieu ehuyen gia v l ele td chdc lai chinh dU b l o g i i v i n g se d mde binh quan tren 2.000 USD vao nam 2012, hoac it nhl't la vai lan cham mde nay.
Trong c i c yeu td t i c ddng tdi g i i vang nam 2012 p h l i ke tdi Hi suat CO b i n cua hau het c i c nen kinh le dang cd xu hUdng tiep luc g i i m hoac da c|n ke 0%, giup chi phi n i m giO vang cua gidi dau tU tai cac nen kinh le nay trd nen khdng d i n g ke. Khi lai suat tien ve
dd la vang.
Cude khung hoing np chau Au van khien gidi d i u IU lo ngai ve v i f c nam gid lien giay. Tinh trang dinh ddn kinh te v l khung h o i n g tai chinh d ehlu Au da d i n tdi sU dd vd niem tin tren quy md t o l n eau v l ed nguy co da'y kinh le t o l n c l u v i o vdng suy thoai va eupe khung hoing nay se tiep lye I I mpt rao ein dd'i vdi tang trUdng t o l n eau. Tuy nhien, cung cd mot sd chuyen gia eho r i n g , cudc khung hoing no v l k b i nang suy t h o l i kinh te chau Au se da'y g i i v i n g vao the
"tien thoai ludng nan", nhdng khd khan d ehlu Au cd the hd tro cho g i i vang, nhdng inai khac cung se bupc c l e nha dau tu can lien p h l i ban vang.
Cbinh sleh ndi ldng thanh k h o l n eua c l e ngan hing trung uong ldn cd the ehIm ngdi eho lam p h i t mdt khi phye hdi kinh te dien ra.
Ve ty g i i gida eae ddng tien, cac n h i phan tich cua Goldman Sachs du b l o ddng USD se suy yeu nhieu trong 2 nam tdi khi cac nha dau tU da dang hda cic ddng lien n i m gid trong danh muc.
Viec ddng USD suy yeu se 11 yeu i d quan trpng giup g i i ving ehinh phuc nhdng dinh cao mdi. Ben canh dd, c i c trung lam kinh le ldn la My, EU v l Nhat Bin tiep tyc phuc hdi cham chap; eupe khung hoing chinh Irj - d i u md tai Trung Ddng - Ble Phi edn keo dai; eae nUdc cdng nghiep p b l l trien h i f n dd'i mat vdi ly If thai nghifp cao.
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tai eo eau p h l i ed qua Irinh lau dai; My va EU v i n duy tri lai sua't tha'p, eae gdi kich thieh kinh te tiep tyc sin sinh ra luong "lien ndng" tae ddng manh tdi thj IrUdng tai ehfnh the gidi se la nhdng yeu td khien ddng USD suy yeu.
Do dd, nam 2012, vang se lai thu hut gidi d i u tU nhU nhdng gi ma nd da lam trong nam 2011. Kim loai quy nay se tiep tuc la mat hang da dang hda e i n thiet dd'i vdi bat cd ai ed mong mudn b l o vf tai sin tafde nhOng bien dpng se keo dai trong nam 2012 eung nhU nhdng nam tiep theo.
Tuy nhien, eung ed khdng ft lap luan eho ring th^p ky tang gia eua vang sap ket thuc. Theo khio sit eua hang lin Reuters vdi 20 nha quin ly quy, ehuyen gia kinh te va thUOng nhan, gia vang dang hudng tdi quy g i i m manh nha't kf Id nam 2008 bdi hoat ddng ban thao. Trien vpng dai ban eua kim loai quy nay cung khdng ma'y lae quan. Cd tdi hon 1/2 sd ngUdi tham gia khio sat cda Reuters tin tudng vang se khdng the quay lai mde cao ky luc ft nhat I I den nda cudi nam 2012, ed 4 ngudi eho ring khdng the cd ky lye mdi eho den t i n nam 2014. Ly do bi quan cua gidi quan sit thj IrUdng la thidu cac chuong trinh ndi Idng tidn t f hay ele gdi kich thich kinh te cua c i c ngan hang trung uong, khien eho c l e quy quin ly tien tf e de trong vifc bom lien sd hdu vang, du r i n g truyen thdng cua kim loai quy I I tang g i i trong dieu k i f n rdi ro.
3. Nhan djnh gia vang nam 2012 theo phan tfch ky thuat
Nam 2011, gia vang the gidi md cda d mde 1.417,65 USD/ounce, xudng mde tha'p nha't d 1.307,90 USD/ounce, sau dd tang len mde eao ky lye 1.920,63 USD/ounce va ddng cda d mde 1.562,95 USD/ounce, ghi nhan mpt nam tang gia manh, ddng thdi eung la nam tang gia thd 11 lien tiep ke td nam 2001 Idi nay cua vang.
Bieu dd 1: Phan tich ky thuat dU bao gia vang theo t h i n g
Linda
b chhoa_iinda@yalioo com vn
Monthly 30- 12-2011
Nam 2012, k h i nang se la mpt nam g i i ving g i i m dieu chinh. Tai bieu dd thing, cbi b l o Stochaslie (ehl sd can b i n nh|n biet khuynh hudng v l sU d i o chieu cua thj IrUdng) dang quay dau xudng gida vung q u i mua v l q u i b i n , cbo tin hifu g i i m dieu chinh eua g i i vang trong nhdng thing dau nam 2011. Chi bao MACD (ehi sd bien dpng gia) va dUdng xu hUdng da elt nhau cung hudng xudng. Hudng tang v i n duoe ky vpng khi ddng cda nam 2011, dudng gia v i n n i m trpng kenh tang kep dai Id thang 10/2008 ma mde tha'p nhat la 681,43 USD/ounce ldi nay va n i m tren mde hd trp 1 .">47 USD/punee eua kenh xu hudng nay, ddng thdi eung
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hifn rd net hOn neu dUdng g i i tholt ra khdi kenh gia neu tren va xuyen pha hd trp quanh ngUdng 1.500 USD/ounce.
Tai bieu dd tuin, dUdng ehl bao xu bUdng v l dUdng MACD dang hudng xud'ng, ung hd xu hUdng g i i m cua g i i vang. Chi bao Stoehastie cung dang quay dau xudng, ung hp xu hudng giam. Tuy nhien, xu hUdng tang v i n ehUa ket thdc khi g i i cdn dang n i m gpn trong kenh tang keo dai Id nam 2008 Idi nay.
Bieu dd 2: Phan tich ky thuat dU bao gia vang theo tuan
4. Tac dfng den gia vang trong nUdc
C i l ving Vift Nam ludn tang, g i i m theo g i i ving the gidi. Mde chenh Ifch g i i v i n g trong nUde vdi gii ving the gidi cao hay Ihap tuy thudc v|p tUng thdi diem va da cd lue len tdi hon 3 trifu ddng/lupng. CIc chinh sleh quin ly v i n g eua Nha nUde eung Inh hudng manh tdi thj trUdng. Trong nam 2011, Nha nUde da ean thifp de dieu lift Ihj trUdng vang bing nhieu bifn p b l p nhU: chi cbo phep 5 ngan hang cd du dieu kifn dupe nhap khau ving; eho ban vang ra vao ihdi diem g i i tang q u i ndng de binh dn thj trUdng; ban che kinh doanh ving mieng vdi nhdng dOn vj khdng du dieu kien; quy dinh td chdc kinh doanh v i n g mieng phli d i p dng du dieu kifn chiem 25% thi phin trd len mdi dUpe sin xua't v i n g mieng.
Nam 2011 11 nam ed nhieu bien dpngehUa ldng tha'y, l l m x l o Iron thj trUdng v i n g the gidi v l trong nUdc.
Kbi gia ving the gidi len mde eao ky lyc 1.920 USD/ounce, g i i vang trong nUdc cung len tdi eon sd 49 trifu ddng/lupng, sau dd lien tuc trdi sut trong khoing gia 42-47 trifu ddng/lUOng. Khoing each gida hai chieu mua - b i n eung dUpc c l e doanh nghifp kinh doanh v i n g gian ra linh boat v l cd lue cleh xa tdi hon 1 trifu ddng/lupng nhim dam b l o an toan va trinh bj dau co g i i trong Ihj tn/dng dang bien ddng manh va bat Ihudng. Tuy nhien, t i m ly cua cac n h i dau tU khdng dn djnh, khie'n cho khdng it n h i dau tUgap rui ro hay nhdng thift hai ding ke trong nam.
Nam 2012, vang se v i n la kenh dau IU hi'p d i n , hifu q u i trUdc linh binh ba't ddng sin va chdng kholn khdng may sing sua. Tinh binh no cong lai khu vUe cblu Au va mpt sd cUdng qudc tren the gidi van ehua cd g i i i ph ip trift de hay dn thda. Tuy nhien, g i i vang da leo thang ra't eao va nguy eo rdt gia Irong nam 2012 cd the x i y ra neu hd tro quanh mde 40 trifu ddng bj xuyen phl.D
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