THAI DO DOI V6l RUI RO vA QUYET DINH DAU TU KHI KHONG CHAC CHAN vi: THI TRUOfNG DAU RA: THlTC TIEN CUA CAC DOANH NGHIEP
NGOAl QUOC DOANH 6 DONG
BANGSONG CU'U LONG
Le KhuoTig Ninh Dgi hgc Cdn Tha
Email: lekhuongninh(a),gmail.com Le Tan Nghiem
Dgi hgc Cdn Tha Email: letannghiemia}gmail. com
Huynh Hihi Tho Dgi hoc Cdn Tha
Email: hiiynhhuuthoct(3),gmail. com
Ngaynhan; 16/2/2016 Ngay nhan ban sira: 10/5/2016 Ngay duyet dang: 25/8/2016
Tom tat:
Bdi viit uac lugng dnh huang ciia thdi dp ddi v&i rui ro cita nhd qudn tri din mdi quan hi giiia miec dp khdng chac chdn vi thi truang dau ra ciia sdn phdm vd ddu tu ciia 667 doanh nghiep & Ddng bdng sdng Cim Long. Kit qud u&c lugng cho thdy mdi quan hi nghich Men giiia mite dp khong chac chdn vd ddu tu cita doanh nghiip neu nhd qudn tri sg riii ro. Mdi quan hi ndy lgi ddng biin niu nhd qudn tri thich rui ro. Tit do, bdi viit di xudt cdc khuyin nghi giiip cdi thiin quyit dinh ddu tu cua cdc nhd qudn tri doanh nghiep.
Tir khoa: "Bdi fran", earth tranh, dau to, khdng chac chan, thai dp ddi vdi riii ro, thj tradng dau ra.
Risk attitude and corporate Investment under output market uncertainty: Evidence from the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam
Abstract:
This paper aims to detect the impact of firm managers' risk attitude on the relationship between the degree of output market uncertainty and firm investment. The findings show that there is a negative relationship between these two aspects for risk-averse managers while there is a positive relationship for risk-loving ones, since they have different utility functions.
Based on the findings, this paper proposes recommendations for firm managers to take into account when making investment decisions and long-term business strategies as well.
Keywords: Competition: corruption; investment; market uncertainty; risk attitude.
1. Gioi thieu Song, ra quylt djnh diu to dung din la rit khd do Nhu dupe ghi nhan rpng rai tit thyc tl, diu to la "ha quan trj phai dii dien vdi sy khdng chic chin boat dpng quyet djnh sy tdn tai va phat triln cua ve thi tra'dng diu ra cua san phim, ben canh cac ylu doanh nghiep thdng qua viec giup nang cao chit tl khac nhu canh tranh va thilu nguon tai fro.
lupng san pham va md rpng thj phin. Vi vay quylt Theo cac nha nghien cuu, quylt djnh diu to ciia dinh dau tu mpt each khoa hpc se gdp phin nang nha quan trj doanh nghiep bj chi phli bdi ylu t l tam cao hieu qua kmh doanh ctia doanh nghiep va thiie ly, dac biet la thai dd dii vdi nii ro bit ngudn to sy day tang tradng kinh te (Maki & cdng sy, 2005). khdng chic chin vl thj tra'dng diu ra ciia san phim
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(Bo & Sterken, 2007; Femminis, 2008). Do e phai fra gia dit cho cac quylt dinh diu to thilu sang sudt nen nha quan frj sg rui ro se tam hoan dau to de thu thap them thdng tin va do do bd qua co hdi dau to tdt. Ngugc lai, nha quan tri thich rui ro lai qua to tin vao nang lyc ban than, cho rang rui ro se dugc kiem soat va toang lai se tdt dep nen mao hiem vdi cac quyet djnh dau to cd kit qua khdng ehae chan. Xu hudng tam ly nay cang de bdc phat mdt kbi da timg thanh cdng vdi cac quyet djnh toong to. Ty tin thai qua la nguyen nhan cua that bai neu mdi tradng dau to xau di. Ndi each khac, quyet djnh dau to cita nha quan tri thich rui ro hay sg rui ro deu cd khiem khuyet can tranh.
Vdi rihan thiic tren, bai viet dugc binh thanh de udc lugng quyet dinh anh hudng ciia thai do ddi vdi rili ro ciia nha quan trj den dau to eua cac doanh nghiep ngoai qude doanh d Ddng bang sdng Cira Long khi khdng chac chan ve thj tradng dau ra cua san pham. Ket qua nghien eira la luan cir khoa bpc giup cac nha quan trj hoach djnh chien luge dau to mpt each hgp Iy nham dam bao cho doanh nghiep tang tradng ben -vflng. Bai viet gdm 6 phan. Phan 1 la gidi thieu. Phan 2 xay dimg ca sd ly thuyet ve anh hudng eua thai dp ddi vdi nii ro cua nha quan trj den quyet djnh dau ta khi khdng chac chan ve thi trudng dau ra cua san pham. Phan 3 trinh bay md binh nghien cira thyc nghiem. Phan 4 la ve phuong phap nghien cira. Phan 5 phan tich ket qua udc lupng mdi quan he vita neu. Phan 6 ket luan va de xuat khuyen nghj.
2. Cff Sff ly thuylt
Kbi xem xet thyc bien mdt dy an dau to, nha quan frj ddi mat vdi su khdng chac chan ve thi tradng dau ra cita san pham bdi khdng the biet doanh sd se ra sao nen se cd ddng co tam hoan dau to de chpn thdi dilm tii tm (Berk, 1999). Nishihara & Shibata (2014) cho rang, trit phi budc phai dau to de danh chan ddi thu, hau het cac quyet djnh dau to deu cd the tam hoan. Ndi each khac, sd hiiu co bdi dau to (quyen chgn thyc) toong to sd bira quyen chpn mua tai chinh (cd phieu chang ban). Khi sd huu quyen chpn thyc, nha quan trj cd the quyet djnh dau tu ngay hay vao lue khac de tao lap nen tai san cd gia frj trong toang lai. Gidng nhu quyen chpn mua cd philu, gia tri ciia quyen chpn thyc bit ngudn to su khdng chac chan ve gia tri cua tai san trong taong lai (Luehrman, 1998). Do khdng chic chin nen nha quan tri cd xu hudng tam hoan diu ta dl thu thap them thdng tin nhim ban chl rui ro thit bai.
Cac nha nghien cuu rat quan tam tim hilu anh
budng cua sy khdng ehae chan ve thj tradng dau ra den quyet djnh dau ta ctia tiha quan trj. Hau het cac nghien ciiu (Guiso & Parigi, 1999; Ghosal & Loun- gani, 2000; Le Khuang Ninh & cdng sy, 2004) da ghi nhan mdi quan he nghich bien giua mite dp khdng chac chan ve thj tradng dau ra va dau ta cua doanh nghiep do raiic dp khdng chac chan lam tang chi phi vdn va chi phi ca hdi cua dau ta. Miie dp khdng chac chan cao cdn khien nha quan frj ludng ly khi ra quyet djnh dau ta bdi e rang khdng kiem soat dugc anh hucmg tieu eye cua cac bien ddng bat thudng tren thj tradng. He qua la dau ta eua doanh nghiep se giam. Ndi each khae, cac nghien cira gia djnh nha quan trj bang quan ddi vdi rui ro khi ra quyet djnh dau to frong dieu kien khdng chac chan ve thj tradng dau ra cua san pham. Song, thyc te cho thay cac nha quan trj thudng thudc nhdm ngudi thich hoac sg nii ro, toy thudc vao bun dyng va ddng CO cua ban than (Block & cdng sy, 2015).
Do dd, cac nha nghien cira tap trang phan tich mdi quan he giua thai dp ddi vdi rui ro cita nha quan frj va dau to cua doanh nghiep. Theo cac nha nghien cira, quyet djnh dau to cua nha quan trj la nham tdi da hda hita dyng ddi vdi Igi nhuan ky vgng thay vi Igi nhuan thuc te (Bo & Sterken, 2007). Hita dung U(7t) cua nha quan fri sg rui ro la ham sd Idi cua lgi nhuan n do quy luat huu dung bien giam dan.
Ngugc lai, bira dung U(;t) cua nha quan tri thich rui ro la ham sd ldm cua lgi nhuan 7t do quy luat hita dung bien tang dan. Do dd, quyet djnh dau to cua bai nhdm nha quan trj nay trai ngugc.
Ben canh cac nghien cira chi xem xet timg khia canh rieng le cua quyet djnii dau to (nhu sy khdng chac chan ve thi tradng dau ra, earth tranh hay sy ban che cua ngudn tai trg), nhieu nghien cira quan tam den anh hudng cua sy khdng chac chan cita thj tradng dau ra den dau to cua doanh nghiep thdng qua thai dp ddi vdi rui ro cita nha quan trj (Nakamu- ra, 1999; Bo & Sterken, 2007; Femminis, 2008;
Chronopoulos & cdng su, 20! 1; Whalley, 2011; Ais- tov & Kuzmicheva, 2012). Cac nghien cira nay cho rang, nha quan trj thich rui ro se tang dau to theo miic dp khdng chac chan do to tin vao nang lyc ban than, cd tham vpng dot pha trong tang tradng va lac quan ve vien canb ta'ong lai. Ddi vdi nha quan trj nay, thanh cdng trong dau ta se mang lai him dung cao hon nhieu so vdi that vpng neu that bai nen muc dp khdng chac chan tang se kich thich dau to.
Ngugc lai, do thich cac gia tri chac chan ban la nii ro nen nha quan fri sg nii ro chudng cac dy an dau to vdi lpi nhuan ky vpng cang chac chan. Tren
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phuong dien bfln dyng, nha quan trj nay cam thay mit mat nhilu hon khi thit bai so vdi thda man khi thanh cdng. Do sg thit bai nen hg can thdi gian de thu thap them thdng tin trade khi ra quyet djnh dau to nhim tii thilu hda tin thit va hdi tiec. Khi dd, dau to se giam khi mire dp khdng chac chan ve thj tradng dau ra cua san pham tang. Nhu vay, mdi quan he gifla dau to va miic dp khdng chac chan ve thj tradng dau ra ciia san pham phu thudc vao thai dp ddi vdi nil ro ciia nha quan tri.
3. Mo hinh nghien cuu
Vdi cac luan diem -vita trinh bay, md hinh ude lupng anh hudng cua thai dp ddi vdi rui ro den mdi quan he giiia mirc dp khdng chac chan ve thi tradng dau ra va dau ta ctia doanh nghiep cd the dugc viet nhu sau:
INV=Pg-^PjUNCER.+^^UNCER.x^^SKi+RISKi +e,. (I) Trong md hinh (1), INV. la ty sd giua gia tij diu ta dy kien (vao may mdc, thiet bj, dat dai va nha xudng) va gia trj tai san cua doanh nghiep ;'. UNCER.
la muc dp khdng chac chan ve thj tradng dau ra cua san phim, do ludng bang he sl biln ddi doanh thu ky vpng ciia doanh nghiep / (Guiso & Parigi, 1999;
Le Khuang Ninh & cdng su, 2004)'. He sl /S, dugc ky vpng la am do ca sd ly thuyet da eho thiy mite dp khdng chac chan ve thj tradng diu ra anb hudng tieu cue den dau ta cua doanh nghiep.
RISK.do ludng thai dp ddi vdi nii ro cua nha quan frj doanh nghiep i. De xay dyng biln nay, nha quan frj dugc yeu cau chpn mpt trong hai tinh hulng gia djnh: (j) dau ta mot sd tien de chac chin cd dugc 10% lai va (ii) dau ta sd tien gilng vay dl cd dugc 20% lai vdi xac suit 50% hoac mit tring vdi xac suat 50%. RISK cd tij sl la 0 (sg nii ro) nlu nha quan trj chpn tinh hulng (i) va la I (thich nii ro) nlu chpn tinh hulng (ii). Cac nghien ciiu thyc nghiem cho thay, nha quan trj thich rui ro se diu ta nhilu hon khi mite dp khdng chic chin thj tradng diu ra tang (Antonides & Van der Sar, 1990; Driver & Whelan, 2001; Andrade & Stafford, 2004; Akdogu & Mack- ay 2008). Vi vay he sl |3 dugc ky vpng la duang.
UNCER. xRISK^ la tich sl giua UNCER. va RISK.
Bien nay dugc sir dung dl kilm djnh anh hudng cua thai dp ddi vdi nii ro din mii quan he giua mite dp khdng chac chin vl thj tradng diu ra va diu ta cua doanh nghiep i. Nhilu nghien cito (Bo & Sterken, 2007; Femminis, 2008; Chronopoulos & cdng su, 2011; Whalley 2011; Aistov & Kuzmicheva, 2012) lap luan rang, dii vdi nha quan trj sg rai ro, mii quan he gifla miic dp khdng chic chin vl thi tradng
diu ra va diu to la nghich biln. Oli vdi nha quan fri nay do RISK. =0 nen dINV/dUNCER.=fi,. Vi vay he sd /Ij dugc ky vgng la am. Ddi vdi cac nha quan trj thich rui ro, mdi quan he nay ngugc lai. Do RISK.=1 nen 8INV/dUNCER.=fij+^^. Vi vay he sl A^ dugc ky vgng la duong va fi, >\il,\.e. la sai sl udc lugng eua md hinh nghien ciiu.
D I hoan chinh, md hinh nghien cira can bao gdm eac ylu td khac cd anh hudng den dau ta cua doanh nghiep ma eac nghien cuu trudc (Bo & Lensink, 2005; Guiso & Parigi, 1999; Polder & Veldhuizen, 2012) da chi ra (nhu lgi nhuan tich Ifly, tang trudng doanh thu, mue dp eanh tranh tren thj trudng, v.v.).
Khi do, md hinh udc lugng frd thanh:
INV.=fig-t-fi,UNCER.+fi^UNCER^ x fJUSK.-^
P^SK.+p^PROi+P^IRRi+ppSAL.-^-lljCOMP.+lig COMP^+li^FAGE.+pjfiRI.-^PuBRf .+l3i/SIZE.+p,^
ANU.+p,^ERV.+e. (2) PRO. la ty sd gifla lgi nhuan sau thue va gia trj tai san eua doanh nghiep /. Bo va Lensink (2005) va Bayraktar (2014) lap luan rang, do bi ban ehl tin dyng bdi thdng tin bat ddi ximg, chi phi giao djch va frach nhiem bito ban, dau ta cua doanh nghiep phu thudc chu yeu vao ngudn tai frg npi bd (hay Igi nhuan tich luy) do gap khd khan frong tilp can ngudn tin dung. Do dd, he sd P^ dugc ky vpng la duang.
IRRj la kha nang sang nhugng tai san da qua sit dung cua doanh nghiep i. Nha quan tri doanh nghiep dugc yeu eau danh gia xem kha nang sang nhugng tai san ciia doanh nghiep la dl hay khd dl hinh thanh biln IRRl. (cd tii sl la I nlu dl sang nhugng tai san va la 0 neu khd). Chitng tdi cflng sit dimg gia tri sang nhugng tai san so vdi gia tij ban diu dl xay dung bien IRR2. (ty sl giua gia sang nhugng va gia mua ban dau cua tai san). Do kha nang sang nhugng tai san phu thudc vao ca IRRl. lin IRR2. (Guiso &
Parigi, 1999) nen chung tdi su dung phuang phap phan tich nhan t l dl kit hgp hai biln nay thanh mpt nhan tl (biln) chung IRR.=wfRRl. -\-w^RR2., vdi w. la diem sl nhan tl. Trj sl IRR. cang ldn thi kha nang sang nhugng tai san cang eao va se kich thich doanh nghiep diu ta nhilu ban. Vi vay, he sl P^
dugc ky vpng la duong.
DSAL. la tdc dp tang tradng doanh thu cua doanh nghiep / (%/nam). Doanh thu tang tiudng nhanh ddng nghTa vdi trien vgng kinh doanh tdt. Do do, doanh nghiep se tang diu ta di khai thac cac ca hdi cd dupe nham md rpng thi phan (Guiso & Parigi, 1999; Bo & Sterken, 2007). Vi vay he sl p^ dugc
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ky vpng la duong.
COMP. la miie dp canh tianh ma doanh nghiep phai dii mat, do ludng bing he sl co gian cua lgi nhuan theo chi phi (profit elasticity -PE). PE do Boone (2000) xay dyng va dugc phat trien bdi Boone (2001 va 2008) va Polder & Veldhuizen (2012). Theo cac nghien cuu nay, mite do eanh tranh ed the dugc do ludng bang ty sd giua sd phan tram thay ddi eua lgi nhuan {n) va sd phan tram thay ddi cua MC. Ndi each khac, dugc tinh bang cdng thirc:
PE _ A;r,./;r,(%) ' AMC,./MC, (%)
Do chi phi bien (MC) rat khd do ludng nen eac nghien eira sir dyng chi phi tinng binh (AC) dl thay the. Ngoai ra, AC ciia cae doanh nghiep hoat ddng d nhieu linh 'vue va san xuat nhieu loai san pham khac nhau se dugc tinh bang ty sd giita tdng chi phi va tdng doanh thu eua doanh nghiep (AC=TC/TR) do khdng thi cdng tdng san lugng (Polder & Veldhuizen, 2012).
Khi dd, /•£•.) dugc tinh bang cdng thite:
_ ^ ^ / 5 _ ( % ) _ ^ .
A4C,./.4C,. (%) ' ' ' Nhu "vua phan tich, neu canh tranh cang gay git thi tij sd eua PE. se cang nhd (am). Do dd, de tien cho viec ly giai anh hudng cua mite dp canh tranh den dau ta cua doanh nghiep, chiing tdi do ludng miic dp eanh franh bang bien COMP^=\PE)^. Trj sd ciia bien COMP. cang ldn chitng td doanh nghiep dang boat ddng trong mdi tradng canh tranh gay gat.
COMP-^.dugc sir dung de kiem djnh mdi quan he phi tayen (dang Oi) gifla mite do canh tranh va dau ta cua doanh nghiep. Nielsen (2002), Aghion & cdng sy (2005), Moretto (2008), Akdogu & Mackay (2008) bay Polder & Veldhuizen (2012) cho ring, cac doanh nghiep hoat ddng trong mdi tradng it canh tranh thudng cd chi phi boat ddng eao do ddng CO lech lac. Khi ap lyc earth tranh tang, doanh nghiep budc phai day manh dau ta nham giam thieu chi phi, nang cao hieu qua va ngan chan ddi thti de tranh bj thu hep thj phan. Song, neu vugt qua gidi ban nhit djnh, canh franh trd nen qua gay git,
"khoang trdng" thj tradng nhd din va Igi ich khdng cdn nen doanh nghiep se giam diu ta. Vi vay, he sl pj dugc ky vpng la duong va he sl Pg la am. PAGE.
la sd nam boat dpng (tadi) eiia doanh nghiep i.
doanh nghiep tre thudng cd xu hudng diy manh diu ta dl tang tradng va md rdng thj tradng nhim tranh thit bai va lang phi cac khoan diu ta cl djnh da thyc hien. Do dd, Pg dugc ky vpng la am (Hansen, 1992;
Moohammad & cdng sy, 2014).
BRI. la ty sd giua sd tien "bdi tion" va gia tri tai san cua doatdi nghiep i. BRI^. (binh phuang cua BRI) dugc sit dung de kiem djnh mdi quan he phi tayen giua chi phi "bdi tron" va dau to cua doanh nghiep.
Neu dugc "bdi frcm", bd may hanh ehinh quan lieu se van hanh trcm tra hon, nhd do doanh nghiep tranh thu dugc cae co hgi sinh Igi nen se tang dau to. Tuy nhien, mac du dugc bdi trcm, can bg bien chat cd the cd tinh khdng thyc hien Idi hita de huge doanh nghiep "bdi tran" nhieu bon. Neu phai "bdi tron"
qua nhieu, lgi nhuan ky vpng to boat ddng dau to se giam khien doanh nghiep han che dau to. Do do, mdi quan he giiia chi phi "bdi tron" va dau to cua doanh nghiep se cd dang (1 (Svensson, 2005; Le Khuang Ninh, 2008). Vi vay, he sd Pjg dugc ky vgng la ducmg va he sd f^ am.
FSIZE. la quy md doanh nghiep i, do ludng bang logarit to nhien eua gia trj tai san eua doanh nghiep.
Thyc te cho thay, cac doanh nghiep ngoai qude doanh quy md ldn cd xu hudng it thye hien cac khoan dau to qua ldn bdi khd tim dugc co hdi tdt.
Do dd, Pj2 dugc ky vgng la am (Hansen, 1992; Le Khuang Ninh & cdng sy, 2007; Akdogu & MacKay, 2008).
MANU. va SERV. dupe dung de kiem dinh sy khac biet trong dau to eua cac doatih nghiep kinh doanh d cac ITnh vyc (san xuat, thuang mai va djch
•vy). MANU. cd frj sd la 1 ddi vdi doanh nghiep san xuat va la 0 ddi vdi doanh nghiep khae. SERV. cd trj sd la I ddi vdi doanh nghiep djch vy va la 0 ddi vdi doanh nghiep khac. Cac he sd p^j va p^^ cd the duang hoac am toy vao mdi tradng boat ddng cua cac doanh nghiep.
4. Phuong phap nghien cihi
Bai viet sit dyng he thdng du lieu sa cap dugc thu thap ngau nhien to' 667 doanh nghiep ngoai qudc doanh d Ddng bang sdng Cira Long, sir dung bang cau bdi dugc soan san va chinh ly sau nhieu lan khao sat thit. Mau khao sat bao gdm 42 doanh nghiep d An Giang (chiem 6,3%) sd doanh nghiep dugc khao sat), 24 d Bac Lieu (3,6%), 22 d Bin Tre (3,3%), 44 d Ca Mau (6,6%), 194 d Cin Tha (29,1%), 43 d Dong Thap (6,5%), 53 d Hau Giang (7,9%), 43 d Kien Giang (6,5%), 52 d Long An (7,8%), 44 d Sde Trang (6,6%), 24 d Tiln Giang (3,6%), 25 d Tra Vinh (3,7%) va 57 d VTnh Long (8,5%). DO' lieu dugc thu thap phan anh cac dac diem chung, tinh hinh boat ddng kinh doanh, thye trang dau to va dau tu dy kien cua doanh nghiep.
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lilt
Bang 1: Ky vong vi dau cua hi so c i a cac bien doc lap
Bien Y nghia Ddu ky vgng cua cac
hesd UNCER,
RISK,
UNCER, X RISK, PRO,
IRR, DSAL, COMP, COMP^
FACE, BRI, BRif FSIZE, MANU, SERV,
Miic dp khong chac chan thj tra'dng dau ra, do ludng bang he sl biln dii doanh thu ky vpng cua doanh nghi?p i C6 trj sl la 0 dii vdi nha quan frj sg rui ro va 1 doi vdi nha quan tri thich rai ro
Tich s l giua UNCER, va RISK,
Ty s l giiia Ipi nhuan sau thul va gia tri tai san cua doanh nghiep /
Kha nang sang nhupng tai san cua doanh nghiep ; T I C dp tang tradng doanh thu cua doanh nghiep i (%/nam)
Miic dp canh tranh ma doanh nghiep i phai doi mat, do ludng bing he sl co gian ciia lpi nhuan theo chi phi (PE,) Binh phuong COMP,
s l nam boat dpng cua doanh nghiep i
Ty s l giu:a s l tiln "boi fron" va gia frj tai san ciia doanh nghiep i
Binh phuang BRI,
Logarit to nhien gia trj tai san cua doanh nghiep / Co tri sl la 1 doi vdi doanh nghiep san xuat va la 0 doi vdi cac doanh nghiep khac
Co tri so la 1 doi vdi doanh nghiep dich vii va la 0 doi vdi cac doanh nghiep khac.
-I-
+
++/- +F Bang 2: Mot so tieu chi ciia doanh nghiep
Trung binh Dp lech chudn
Nho nhdt Lim nhdt Tuoi (nam)
Gia frj tai san (trieu dong) Doanh thu (trieu dong) Lpi nhuan (frieu dong) Gia trj dau tu (trieu dong)
10 146.913 210.402 16.761 14.402
9 492.392 539.048 77.904 60.835
2 130 50 -705.087
0
52 6.750.400 5.450.131 1.200.000 793.000
Nguon: So lieu tu khdo sdt ndm 2014.
Thyc trang boat ddng kinh doanh va diu ta' ciia doanh nghiep dugc khai quit bang phuang phap thdng ke md ta. Sau dd, chung tdi sti dyng phuong phap Tobit de udc lugng anh hudng cua thai dp ddi vdi rui ro cua nha quan trj din m i i quan be gifl'a muc dp khdng chic chan v l thj tradng diu ra va diu ta ctia cac doanh nghiep dupe khao sat.
5. Kit qua nghien eiru
5.1. Thuc trgng cua cdc doanh nghiip Kit qua khao sat cho thiy, gia trj tai san binh quan cua cac doanh nghiep trong mau nam 2013 la 146.913 trieu ding va tali binh quan la 10 nam (Batig 2). Cd 231 cdng ty trach nhiem bun ban (chilm 34,6% s l doanh nghiep dupe khao sat), 193 cdng ty c l phin (28,9%) va 180 doanh nghiep to'
nhan (27%o). Cd 154 doanh nghiep tham gia boat ddng xuat khau (chilm 23,1%)).
Nam 2013, doanh thu binli quan ciia cac doanh nghiep la 210.402 trieu 'VND (tang 17,4% so vdi nam 2012). Lgi nhuan binh quan nam 2013 la 16.761 trieu 'VND (tang 6,8% so vdi nam 2012).
Song, chi phi hoat ddng tang cao (18,4% so vdi nam 2012) nen ty suit lgi nhuan fren doanh thu (ROS) nam 2013 eua eac doanh nghiep ehi xap xi 8%. Dieu dd cho thay, toy doanh thu va lgi nhuan tang tradng kha tdt nhung doanh nghiep ehua su: dung hieu qua cac nguin lyc nen chi phi cdn cao.
Xap xi 46,3% doanh nghiep thyc hien "bdi fron"
vdi sd tiln binh quan la 192,2 tiieu VND/nam. Hoat ddng "bdi tron" dudng nhu phd bien trong cdng
Sd 231 thing 9/2016 46
rild'ipii
Bang 3: Gia trj dau ta ciia cac doanh nghiep
Nguon von ddu tu
Von ty c6
Vay ngan hang thuang mai co phan
Vay ngan hang thuang mai quoc doanh
Vay NH nudc ngoai Vay ho trp lai suat ciia CP Vay to ngudn khac Tong so tien dau tir
Ddu tu ndm Sd tien {trieu dong)
9.472,03 2.976,26 1.432,91 221,11 30,58 269,51 14.402,41
2013 Ty trong
(%) 65,77 20,66 9,95 1,54 0,21 1,87 100,00
Ddu tie dir kien ndm 2015 So tiin
[trieu ddng) 5.142,61 2.169,25 1.022,82 90,67 19,34 335,13 8.779,81
Ty trong (%)
58,57 24,71 11,65 1,03 0,22 3,82 100,00
Thay 20lf ndm 2
ddi ndm ) so vai ,013 (%)
-45,71 -27,11 -28,62 -58,99 -36,76 24,35 39,04 Nguon: Sd lieu tie khdo sdt ndm 2014.
ddng doanh nghiep d Ddng bang sdng Cira Long, bdi ed den 45,6% doanh nghiep thyc hien "bdi tron"
to nguyen va 48,5% doanh nghiep xem viec "bdi tron" la quy udc ngam. Hinh thitc "bdi tron" phd bien dugc sit dung la qua cap (56%o sd doatih nghiep thyc hien "bdi tran"), tiec tong (54,3%) va tien mat (52,8%o). Cd doanh nghiep thye hien cung luc nhieu hinh thitc "bdi tron"
Gia trj dau to binh quan nam 2013 cua cac doanh nghiep la 14.402 frieu VND (Bang 2). Do kinh tl suy thoai va nhu eau thj tradng sut giam nen dau to du kien nam 2015 ctia cac doanh nghiep chi cdn 8.779,8 trieu VND (giam 39,04% so vdi nam 2013).
Ba ngudn vdn chu lyc duac doanh nghiep sit dung de tai trg dau to la vdn to cd (to Igi nhuan tich Ifly) va vdn vay ngan hang thuong mai (cd phan va qudc doanh), cho thay vai frd quan trpng cua vdn to cd ddi vdi dau ta ciia doanh nghiep (xap xi 65,77% gia trj dau ta cua cac doanh nghiep dupe khao sat). Khi quyet djnh dau ta, doanh nghiep edn quan tam den lpi nhuan va su khdng chac chan ve thj trudng dau ra cua san pham (he sd bien ddi doanh thu ky vpng binh quan ciia cac doanh nghiep la 37,7%). Le Khuang Ninh & cdng sy (2004) cflng udc lugng trj sd binh quan cua he sd bien ddi doanh thu ky vpng ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep d Ddng bang sdng Cira Long nam 2000 la 17,9%o. Dieu do cho thiy, d chimg myc nhat djnh, mite dp khdng chac chan ve thi tradng dau ra ciia cac doanh nghiep d Dong bing sdng Cira Long ed xu hudng tang theo thdi gian.
5.2. Kit qud u&c lugng
Phin nay trinh bay ket qua udc lupng anh hudng cua thai dp ddi vdi nii ro din mii quan he giu'a mirc dp khdng chac chan ve thj tradng diu ra cua san
pham va dau ta cua doanh nghiep. Trade khi udc lupng, chung tdi tien banh kiem djnh hien tagng da cdng tayen trong md hinh hdi quy. He sd taong quan gifla cac bien ddc lap (r.) deu be ban 0,8 (0,0002<|r.|<0,532), chiing td md hinh nghien curu thyc nghiem khdng bj bien tagng da cdng tayen.
Ngoai ra, chung tdi sir dung toy chpn Robust trong phan mem Stata de kiem tra va khac phuc hien togng phuang sai sai sd thay ddi trong md hinh nghien cira thyc nghiem.
Trade tien, chung tdi kiem djnh anh hudng cua sy khdng chac chan ve thi tradng dau ra cua san pham den dau to vdi gia djnh la nha quan trj doanh nghiep bang quan ddi vdi nii ro (Md hinb 2a, Bang 4), Ket qua udc lugng cho thay, be sd /?, cua bien UNCER, cd tij sd la -0,115 d mite y nghTa 10%, ngu y rang nlu nha quan trj bang quan ddi vdi nii ro, mite dp khdng chac chan ve thi tradng dau ra eua san pham tang thi dau to ctia doanh nghiep giam.
Bien RISK, dupe bd sung vao Md hinh 2b (Bang 4) de kiem djnh anh hudng cua thai dp ddi vdi nii ro den dau to cua doanh nghiep. He sd ciia bien RISK, la 0,085 d mite y nghTa 10%o, cho thay cac nha quan tri thich nii ro cd xu hudng dau to nhieu hon so vdi cac nha quan trj sg riii ro. Song, ket qua nghien cita thyc nghiem gan day ghi nhan, thai dp ddi vdi nii ro cd anh hudng den quyet djnh dau ta cua nha quan trj khi khdng chac chan ve thj tradng dau ra nen chung tdi tiln hanh udc lugng Md birth 2c. Ket qua udc lugng Md hinb 2c cho thay, he sd /?, cua bien UNCER,X RISK^ cd trj sd duong d mite y nghia 5%o.
Nhu vay, ddi vdi nha quan trj thich nii ro (RISK,=1), khi mite dp khdng chac chan cang cao, dau ta cua doanh nghiep se cang nhieu, bdi dIVN/8UNCER,=
Sd 231 thing 9/2016
Bang 4: K i t qua h l i quy Biin phu thupc: INV- Diu ta dy kiln cua doanh nghiep nam 2015
Bien so C UNCER, UNCER,xRISK,
Mo hinh 2a Mo hinh 2b Md hinh 2c
- 0 038 -0,035 -0,024
**
PRO, IRR, DSAL, COMP, COMP:
_0 115* -0,126'* -0,151 (-0,045) (-0,048) (-0,059)
0,215*'*
(0,084)
RISK 0'°85*
(0,035)
Q252*** 0,246'*'*'* 0,251*'*'*
'(0,098) '(0,094) (0,098) 0 045*** 0,047*"** 0,048***
'(0,018) '(0,018) (0,019) 0 002*** 0,002*** 0,002***
'(0,001) (0,001) (0,001) 0 005*** 0,005*** 0,005***
'(0,002) (0,002) (0,002) -0,000** -0,000** -0,000**
(-0,000) (-0,000) (-0,000) PAGE -0,002 -0,002 -0,002
(-0,001) (-0,001) (-0,001) BRT, 7,375*** 7,223*** 6,972***
(2,856) (2,763) (2,722) BRI^ -58,675* -57,327* -55,203*
(-22,722) (-21,929) (-21,557) FSIZE, -0,002 -0,002 -0,002
(-0,001) (-0,001) (-0,001) MANU, -0,006 -0,011 -0,011
(-0,002) (-0,004) (-0,004) SERV, -0,046 -0,050 -0,051 _^ (-0,017) (-0,018) (-0,019)
Sl quan sat (AO 667 667 667 T r i s i F 5,050 4,550 4,650 Muc y nghia mo hinh 0,000 0,000 0,000 Trj sl log likelihood -334,551 -332,607 -331,879 Ghi chii: Gia tri dupe trinh bay a dong thir 1 cira moi bien so la he sd /?.. Dong thii 2 la gia tri tac dpng bien ciia bien dpc lap doi voi bien phu thupc (dlNV/dX,). ***: mirc y nghia 1%; **: miic y nghia 5%; ":
mirc y nghTa 10%. Nguon: So lieu tu khdo sdt ndm 2014.
-0.059-1-0.084=0.025. Ngugc lai, ddi vdi nha quan duong d muc y nghTa 1%. He sd hdi quy cua hau het frj sg rui ro {RISK,=0), dau ta giam khi miic dp cac biln khac d i u cd y nghTa thing ke diing nhu ky khdng chic chin tang {dIVN/dUNCER,=-0.059). vpng, ngoai ttto FACE,, FSIZE,, MANU. va SERV^.
He sd p^ ciia bien PRO, cd frj sd duong d mu'c y 6. K i t luan va k h u y i n nghi
nghia 1 %, ngu y ring lpi nhuan cang cao thi doanh K i t qua nghien cuu cho t h i y anh hudng eua muc ngbipp dau ta cang nhieu do ban bet doanh nghiep j g kbg^g ^hic chin v l thi frudng diu ra din d i u ta d Ddng bang sdng Cira Long deu gap khd khan ^ua cac doanh nghiep nghich biln nlu nha quan tij frong tiep can cac nguon vdn vay do bj ban che tin ^^ ^^ ^o. Day la he qua ciia viee nha quan tii sg nii dung. He sd p, cua bien IRR, cung cd tri sd duong d ^ tam hoan d i u ta d l thu thap them thdng tin frudc mirc y nghia 1%, cho thay neu de sang nhugng tai ^hj q^ygt dinh d i u ta nhim franh thit bai nen phai san vdt gia frj cang cao thi doanh nghiep se diu ta h l i tile. Nguac lai, anh hudng ctia miic dp khdng cang nhieu. He sd p^ cita bien DSAL, ciing ed tri s l chic chin din diu ta cua cac doanh nghiep lai d i n g Sd 231 thdng 9/2016 4 8
biln n l u nha quan trj thich nii ro do sy to tin vao vin) dy bao nhu ciu thj tradng de kip thdi ling phd nang lyc ban than, m u l n dot pha va lac quan v l vdi cac biln ddng bat thudng cflng nhu xay dyng toong lai. Ngoai ra, anh hudng ctia mirc dp canh chien luge kinh doanh phu hgp cho timg thdi ky.
tranh va chi phi "bdi tron" din diu to cita doanh Ben canh dd, doanh nghiep can phan bd ngudn lyc nghiep cd dang n . K i t qua nghien cira cdn cho thay, cho cac co hdi kinh doanh ma Igi ich do chung lgi nhuan va kha nang sang nhupng tai san cao cflng mang lai it ed quan he vdi nhau (da dang hda).
kich thich doanh nghiep dau to nhieu ban. Doanh nghiep cung cd thi sit dung cac cdng cy bao Nhu da d l cap, quylt djnb diu to cua nha quan ly hiem nii ro (nhu hpp ddng quyen ehpn, hgp ddng tbieh nii ro hay sg rui ro diu ed d i u cd thi mang lai toong lai hay hgp d i n g hoan ddi) de giam thilu nii kit qua khdng mong m u l n n l u khdng nhan djnh ro cho cac quyet djnh dau to cua minh trong dieu chinh xac ve mirc do khdng chac chan ve thj ttudng kien khdng chac chan ve thj tradng dau ra cua san dau ra ciia san pham. Do dd, de dy bao ebinh xac pham. Mat khac, Chinh phu can thanh lap co quan bien ddng ciia thj tradng, doanh nghiep can thanh chuyen trach hd trg cung cap thdng tin thj tradng lap bp phan chuyen trach (hay thue chuyen gia ta cho doanh nghiep. •
' Tir dir lieu thu thap dugc, chung toi tinh trj so dugc trung binh (CM = ii + d')xS„) va phuang sai (CV = (cr')'xS^) cua doanh thu ky vgng nam 2015 cua DN theo nhan dinh cua nha quan ly nam 2014 (s„ la doanh thu cua nam goc (2013), d' la trung binh va (o"-)'' la phuang sai ty le tang trucmg doanh thu ky vgng cua DN nam 2015. Tren ca sa do, chiing toi tinh he so bien doi doanh thu ky vgng cua DN (UNCER = fcv/CM) •
Ghi chii:
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