KINH T^-TAI CHfNH QU6CT^
THI TRl/CXNG TAI CIIINH - TIEN TE THE GIOI NAM 2011 V A D I / B A O NAM 2012
OAO MAI PHUONG
Cdng vdi nhdng biin ddng cda nin kinh tithi gidi, thj trUdng tdi chinh - tien ti dii gidi ndm 2011 dd ghi ddu nhdng phlin giao djch tdng, gidm khd mgnh trin thj trUdng ehdng khodn; hdnh ddng gom vdng cda edc nhd ddu tuldn, nhd vd mat kit qud budn cho mdt ndm giao didi cda dong tiai chung didu Au.
Thi t r u ^ g chuTng khoin the gitfi bien ddng manh Thi trudng chiing khoin (TTCK) My ndi rieng va TTTC toin cau ndi chung trai qua nira dau nam 2011 khi em i veii cac tin hieu Igc quan ve tieh trinh phye hd'i eua nen kinh te' dau tau the' gidi. Ky vpng nen kinh te' My hdi sinh se dua thi trudng sdm trd Igi nhirng ngiy hoing kim trudc thai ky khimg hoing nam 2008 vi thdng tin nhieu doanh nghipp My thdng bao lim an ed lai d i tgo eho TTCK My cd nhiing dp^
tang diem khi bat ngd trong quy 11/2011. Chi so Dow Jones len miic cao nhat trong n i m vao ngiy 29/4, d ngudng 12.810,54 diem, chi so S&P d miie 1363,61 diem va Nasdaq d miie 2873,54 diem, miie chdt eao nhat aia chi so nay ke tir thing 12/2000.
Tir t h i n g 7/2011 de'n nay, ddng tien v i o cic TTCK lien tye syt giim khi tinh hinh ehinh tri tgi Trung Ddng ngiy them bat o'n, khiing h o i n g np e6ng lan rpng tai chau Au v i dgc biet la sau khi to ehiie Standard & Poor's hg xe'p hgng tin dyng cua My. Quy 111/2011 Ii quy giim diem tdi te n h i t trong n i m ciia TTCK My sau mpt logt cic thdng tin bat Ipi tren
Thi trudng roi vao trang thii hoing logn sau ngay 5/8/2011, khi td chiic dinh miie tin nhiem Standard
& Poor's da ha bgc tin nhipm aia My tir AAA xud'ng edn AA+. Chi trong phien giao dieh ngay 8/8/2011, chi sd' Dow Jones da mat ban 634,76 diem, giam 5,55%, xudng 10.809,85 diem. Day la lan dau tien ke tir thing 11/2010, chi so' Dow Jones rdt xud'ng ducji ngudng ky thuat 11.000 diem. Chi so S&P 500 ding trupt 79,92 diem xuong edn 1.119,46 diem, ti-ong ling giim 6,66% so vdi phien trude dd v i giim tdi
17,9% ke tir phien dinh eao 29/4. Chi so Nasdaq eung reri ty do 174,72 diem, tucmg ung 6,90%, xucmg 2.357,69 diem.
Khdng dimg Igi d dd, TTCK My Igi tie'p tye lap ddc trong thing 10/2011 khi gidi dau tu b i n tong b i n thio cd' phie'u ngan hang do lo sp khimg hoang tai chinh dang dien bien tp hgi d Hy Lap ed the gay ra sy syp do ciia cae ngan h i n g Idn tren the gidi.
Chdt phien giao dieh 3/10/2011, ehi so edng nghiep Dow Jones trupt tdi 258,08 diem, tucmg iing 2,36%, xud'ng 10.655,30 diem; Chi so S&P 500 giim 32,19 diem, tuong ung 2,85%, xudng edn 1.099,23 dig'm;
Chi so Nasdaq xud'ng chdt d 2.335,83 diem. Day eiing chinh la phien giao dich d i n h da'u nhung ngudng tha'p nhat trong nam oia 3 chi sd' ehiing khoan chinh tgi My.
Trong thing 11/2011, tin dgi gia tii ehinh MF Global da p h i sin khi dm qua nhieu np xaii eiia chiu Au ding d i khieh TTCK My lao dd'e mgnh. Day la ngn nhan "khiing" dau tien cnia My "chet" vi np chau Au v i ding la vy p h i sin ldn thir biy tinh ve tai s i n trong lich su a i a My. Tuy nhien, quy IV/2011 van la quy TTCK My tang diem k h i ah tupng tnrdc nhirng tin hipu Ige quan eua kinh te' My, sau thdng tin 6 ngan hing tnmg uong hang dau the'gidi bat tay ngan chgn khimg hoing np, Cye Dy trii Lien bang My (FED) dua ra cam ket ve lai suit ea ban gan 0%
them hon 2 nam nira... TTCK My ghi nhgn nhieu phien tang diem deh 4% v i trong quy IV/2011, Dow Jones tang 11,95%, S&P 500 tang 11,15% va Nasdaq tang 7,86% nhung tinh c i nam, Dow Jones chi ting 5,5% edn Nasdaq giim 1,8%. Trong khi dd S&P 500 mat 0,04 diSn (tirong iing 0,003%). Ket q u i trii chieu
nay da danh djili sy ke't thiic ciia h^ii nSm tang diem vira qua ciia TTCK My.
TTCK chau Au chin nhieii song giu trong nim 2011 bdi cupc khung hoang np cong khu vye k^o dai hon 2 nam qua ngay cang lan rgng va da tie'n ga'n hon tdi trung tam chau An.
Trong 4 thang ulau nam 201 I, gidi d i u tu k h i ky vpng vao nJiiing nd lyc ngan digii cuOc khiing hoang np cdng oia cic n h i lanh dgo chau lye va qud'e te. Chi sd CAC 40 tgi Paris dgt dinh cao nhat trong nam li 4.157,14 diem vio ngiy 18/2. Chi sd DAX dgt nguong 7.514,46 diem ngay 29/4 (ngudng cao nhat tiong nim 2011 vi eao nhat ke tir dau n i m 2008).
Tuy nhien, cic ke hogch that lung bupe byng day khac kho m i cic nude dang ngng np phii i p dyng de vuc dgy nen kinh te'vi ddi la'y ciiu trp quo'c te'da bop nghet tang trudng kinh te, day nhieu nudc nga'p nghe bd vye suy thoii. Gicii da'u tu chiing khoin Igi thao chgy khdi cic TTCK chau Au.
Bo qua nhiing nd lyc md rpng quy md Quy binh on tai chinh chau Au, siet chgt ky lugt ngan sich, tang khi nang thanh khoin cho hp thd'ng ngan hang... tinh ei n i m 2011, chi so Stoxx Europe 600 van ha 11%, chi s6' FTSE 100 eua Anh mat 5,6%, chi so' Dax ciia Diie va ehi so' CAC 40 eua Phap lao doe hon 15%.
TTCK chau A ed nam giam diem da'u tien trong 3 nam qua do lo ngai khimg hoing no chau Au se keo kinh te toin cau vio suy thoii cung veJi viec Tnmg Qudc dua ra nhieu bien p h i p kiem che' lgm phat va thim hpa dpng da't, sdng than, khimg hoing hgt nhan tgi Nhgt. Chi sd Nikkei 225 a i a TTCK Nhgt hg
3 I £ N B I ^ N C A C C H I s d CHIJTNG K H O A N CHlNH T R £ N T H E G I O I N A M 2 0 1 1
Thj tnfdng E3W
My fe
Chi so Dow Jones
S&P 500 Nasdaq
31/12/2010 11.577,51 1.257,64 2.652,87
30/12/2011 12.217,60 1.257,60 2.605,15
Tang/giim (%) 5,5 -0,003
-1,8 Anil
pip
Ovtc iNhatBin
Hong Kong Trung Quoc Dai Loan (Tmng Quoc) Kin Quoc An 96 Singapore
FTSE 100 CAC 40
DAX Nikkei 225 Hang Seng Shanghai Composite
Taiwan W e i g h t e d
KOSPI Composite BSE Straits Times
5.899,94 3.804,78 6.995,47 10.228,92 23.035,40 2.808.08 8-972,50
5.572,28 3.159,81 5 898,35 8.455,35 18.434,40 2.199,42 7.072,08
2.070,08 1.825,74 20-509,10 15.462,30 3.190,04 2.652,36
mCH\m-Thdng 02/2012^
17,3% trong nam 2011, muc giam ehua timg cd ke tir nam 1982; chi sd Hang Seng cua TTCK Hdng Kong giam 20%; chi so Shanghai Composite eua TTCK Trung Qudc mat 21,7% sau khi hg 14% trong nam 2010; Kospi ciia TTCK Han Quoc mat 11%.
Chi so ehung khoin toan eau MSCl giam 9,5%
so vdi nam ngoai, khien lpi nhuan ciia cic nhi dau tu roi xud'ng mue tha'p nhi't tinh tir khung hoing tai ehinh nim 2008.
Dp' bio Igc quan ve TTCK My trong nam 2012, ke't qui cupc khio sit ciia CNNMoney, cic chie'n lupc gia dau tu va cic giam ddc quin ly quy ky vpng S&P 500 se tang 7%. Cae chie'n lupe gia bp phgn kinh doanh CO phie'u thupc JP Morgan eiing eho rang chi so S&P 500 se ke't thue nam 2012 d mue 1.430 diem.
Theo hp, khimg hoing np chau Au se dan lang diu vio nira eud'i nam 2012 va ehu ky bau cir cd the tie dpng rich cue de'n gii ed phie'u.
Bi quan hon, mpt sd' nhi phan tieh Igi cho rang TTCK the gidi se tie'p ti^c gap khd khan trong nam 2012 vi chau Au van cdn phii vgt Ipn vdi cupc khung hoing np edng. Cac TTCK the gidi cd the se ne'm trii them mpt nam hdn logn nira sau nim 2011 - nam co nhieu phien giao dieh bie'n dpng manh nha't (tang giim 5%) ke tin khi dgi gia Lehman Brothers cua My spp do nam 2008.
Trai phieu My "len ngdi"
Riit tien ra khdi TTCK, n h i dau tu quan tam nhieu hon deh thi trudng trii phieu. Dii My bi hg diem tin nhiem hoi dau tiiang 8 vira qua nhung nhu cau ddi vdi trai phie'u kho bgc My da len tdi miie ky luc trong nim 2011 va day ding la mpt tiong nhiing loai tai san dem Igi mue lpi nhugn hap dan nha't cho cac nhi dau tu.
Theo Bloomberg, nam 2011, Bp Tii ehinh My da bin da'u gia thanh eong so trii phie'u tri gia 2.135 ty USD. Trong dd, lupng eau nhan dupc eao gap 3,04 l i b lupng cung.
Dgc bipt, trong dpt ban 30 ty USD trii phieu ky hgn 4 tiian vio ngay 20/12/2011, Bp Tai chinh My nhan dupe miic eau cao gap 9,07 lan ngudn cung, mgc dii chi tri lai sua't 0% cho so trii phie'u nay
CuOc khiing hoang np cong lan rpng d chau Au vi su suy giam tang tirrdng kinh te toan cau tiiuc day cic nhi dau tu dd von vao cae tai sin an toan aia My, ti'ong dd ed ti-ii
-17,0 -15,7 -17,3 -20,0 -21,7 -21,2
-11,8 -24,6 -15,9 vigoogkiom/finame
klNHTi-TAl CHfNH QU6CTC
HlNH 1: LAI SUATTRAI PHflU CHfNH PHO K Y H A N I O N A M C O A M *
phie'u kho bgc, nhd dd, Chinh phu M\ m ihc \.i\'\dn vdi muc chi phi tha'p de trang tr.ii ihn ih.iin hiii ng.'in sich. Blcwmberg cho biet, tien tr>i Lu ^-u,^ t hmh phu My trong nam tai khda 2011 ki't thiR- \\u> ]ij;,i\ M)/') chi ehie'm 3% GDP, giam so vdi nun )".. wmn.ini IW^' Tinh ehung, trii phie'u kho h.u M\ nam n<i\' tlrm ve miie lpi nhugn 8,9% cho ILK" nhu dju tu, so vt^i muc giim 8% aia chi so Thomson Reuters/Jeffcnes CRB Index - thudc do gii eiia cac loai hang hoa CCT bin. Theo so'li^u ciia ngan hing i3ank of America, gia tiii phie'u chinh phu v i cic loai chiing khoan dam b i o bang np dia d'e tren pham \i toan cau nam nay tang 5,8%, edn trii phie'u doanh nghiep tang 4,3%.
Gi(5fi p h i n tieh d u bio, trong nam tdi, nhu cau dd'i veJi trai phie'u kho bgc My se con manh vi tai san nay li mpt trong so rat it nhirng tai san ma giai dau hr qud'e te'cdn xem la an toin trong hoi canh hicn nav.
Dong Euro mat gi<i
Trien vpng u i m ciia khu vuc dimg Euro da khieh ddng Euro ed mpt nim giao J ich that bai. Gid dav khdng ehi cic nude thupe khoi nay ma ca chau Au va the'gidi dang hdi hpp theo ddi va \o lang cho so phan nghipt nga ciia dong Euro... Dieu de hieu li dong Euro lung lay dir dpi vi mpt so nudc sir dung ddng tien niy dang mic np nhu chiia chom.
Euro giim lien tie'p so vdi dong USD khi lai sua't trai phieu ehinh phii khu vi,rc chau Au tang len miic ky lye do np edng tgi nhieu quoc gia trong khoi ddng tien ehung tang vupt muc kiem soat Bieh dpng lai sua't CO b i n dong Euro trong nam 2011 (1,00% -1,25%
-1,50% -1,25% -1,00%) eho thay cac quan chirc Ngan hang trung uong chau Au (ECB) bi giing co giua hai myc tieu kiem che'lam phat va tang trudng kinh te. Ddng Euro ting deu dan tii dau nam, deh ngay 4/5/2011 dgt ngudng eao nha't trong nam la 1,4940 roi trupt giim lien tue xud'ng miic thap nhat trong nam la 1,2858 vao ngiy 29/12 v i trong phien giao dich
30/12/2011 ty gii Euro/USD la 1,2%I, giarn 2,9% so veil muc mcrcua dau nam 2011.
Cudi nam 2011, lo ngai ve cupc khung hoang np Khu vuc diing Euro ngay cang ting, tinh trgng eang lliang thanh khoan van dien ra trong he thd'ng ngan hang thau An tiing da khieh ddng Kuro diing d mtic lh,i|> nli.il ke III 10 n.im L\uii so ven Yen Nhat. Trong phirn j'.iao di. h t uoi nam 2011, ddng Euro xud'ng eon '''1,77 > en ke In <.\,m nam, ddng tien ehung 17 quoc i-,i>i 1 hau Au d i giam 8% so vin ddng tien Nhat Ban.
I in cau cao ddi vdi trii phie'u My ddng nghia ven siu manh cho USD Tiong boi cinh suy thoii kinh te^
USD van dupc ua chupng han cic loai tai san khic, bat tliap chinh sach neVi long tien tp ciia CLIC d\f trOr lien bang My (FED) cd thi- khien ty lp lam phit tang iiiio va CO quan xe'p hang tin nhi("m Standard&Poor giam hang muc tin dyng eriia My So vdi rd cic tien l(; Ion, I hi sn' USD ket thuc nam 2011 vdi mire tang I,!';-;, Day tung la nam thu 2 hen tie'p chi so dong USD tang. Theo so' lipu ciia IMF, ty !(' USD trong quy ill/2011 trong td'ng dy tni' ngogi lp toan cau tang cao nha't ke tir nam 2008 vi dat muc 61,7% trong khi ty 1^ diing Euro chi chie'm 25,7%. muc tha'p nha't trong vdng 3 nam qua
Nam 2011 la nam an nen lam T^^ vai nhung nha dau tu rot tien vao ddng Yen Nhat, ddng Franc Thyy Sy. Ke't thuc nam 2011, ddng USD xudng con 76,95 Yen va giam 5,2'''l. trong nam so vai dong tien chau A nay dii Ngan hang trung uong Nhat (BOJ) da ba lan can thipp dc hg gia tien te trong nudc
Do chinh phu Trung Qudc co ging can bang thuong mgi vi su dung ddng Nhan dan t? (NDT) de guip kiem che lam phat nen diing tien ciia nudc nay da tang 4.7% so veVi USD trong nam 2011 vi dong cua a mite cao ky luc 6,3211 USD/NDT Ket thiic nam 2011, ddng bang Anh (GBP) it thay ddi so voi USD, chi tang 0,8% len 1,5530 GBP/ USD.
Manoj Ladwa, c o v i n cap cao cua thi trudng von ETX cung cap cic dich vu trao ddi tien te d Luan
HlNH2:DieNBieNTVGlA EUR/USD TRONG N*M 2011
Pon, dv bao ddng USD tie'p tye tang gia v i ha'p dan toan the' gidi. Tuy nhien, gidi dau tu eiing chua he't ban khoan ve k h i nang phye hdi thye sy cda nen Itinh te My va heu FED cd thye hipn chuang trinh noi long tien tp hay khdng. Neii FED bom them tien vao nen kinh te'hogc md rpng chuang trinh lai sua't ggn bang 0% nhu hi^n nay, ddng USD cd the syt giam tiong nam ten.
Thj tru'dng vang: Mot nam day bien dong Khep lai nam 2011, vang the gioi Ling them i 2".>, danh da'u nam tang gia thu U lien tiep Da\ lung duac xem la nam da\ bien dong cua \ ang
Nhu cau dau tu \a tich tni \ aiii; trong nam 2ili 1 tang manh hon bao gio het klii gioi dau lu I]UI"H te khong con tin tu'dng vao cac Kvii tien te ijiiiK le khac ciingnhugiatri cua cackenlnlau tu kiiat ngoai \ ang The gidl da ducTC chung kien no luc "6m" vang "dien cuong" cua cac ngan hang liiing uong (NHTW) \a nguoi dan truoc nhung bien co cua nen kinh te toan cau tiong cac quv dau nam 2011.
Tich cue nha't trong xu the' na\' phai noi den la cac NHTW. Hg da thay ddi tu vi the'ngudi ban rong trong sudt nhung nam 90 va 2000 sang nliung nguoi mua rong vio nam 2011- Thai Lan, Nga, Bolivia, Trung Qudc va Han Qudc deu cong bo nhirng dot mua vao ky lyc.
Trong quy III/2011, theo bao cao ciia Hoi dong Vang The gidi (WGC), cac NHTW da mua vao 148,4 tan vang, miic ldn nha't ke tii nam 1971. Hoi dong Vang The gidi ciing cho rang lupng vang ma cac NHTW mua trong ca nam 2011 co the len deh 450 tan, muc cao nha't ke tu' khi he thong Bretton Woods sup do each day 40 nam. Trong khi do, con so nay nam 2010 chi la 142 tan. Day cung la mdt trong nhung ly do chi'nh giiip vang duy tri da tang trong gan 9 thing dau nam 2011
Ngay 3/1/2011, vang bat dau ngay giao dich dau tien trong nam vdi muc dong eira 1.415 USD/ounce.
1 HiNH 3: GlA V A N G THg Glfll NAM 2011 (USD/OUNCE)
1900 1B50 leoo 1750 170D 1550 1600 1S50 1500 1450 MOO 1350 1300 12S0
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Gia kim loai quy bat dau leo thang vao thing 3 va thang 4 len miic 1.434 va 1.466 USD/ounce kH xay ra bien eo ehinh tn tai Trung Ddng vi Bae Phi.
Sau d6, khi ECB quye't dinh tang lai sua't len 1,25%, tao dieu ki?n cho dong Euro tang so vdi USD, vang tiep tye biit pha vupt miic 1,500 USD/
ounce len can viing 1.600 USD/ounce. Sau mpt thdi gian di ngang vi dieu ehinh giam nh?, thj trudng vang ddn nhgn mpt luong sinh khi mdi day manh me khi My trd thanh tam diem ciia ba't on tai chinh the gidi do be bo'i nang tran np cong. Gia vang tang manh trong thdi gian ra't ngan, hudng ve ngudng 1.900 USD/ounce. Them vio do, ndi sp hai tir cupc khiing hoang np chau Au bao triim the' gidi khie'n gia vang lien tie'p lap nhirng ky lue vi dinh diem la ngay 6/9 dat miie 1.923,70 USD/ounce, miie cao nha't trong lich sir gia vang. Nhu vay, tinh den thdi diem thing 9/2011, gia kim loai quy nay da tang tdi ga'n 40%.
Tir cud'i quy 111/2011, hi?n thuc hda da tid thanh mpt ye'u to xic dinh lai xu hudng oia vang. Nhimg quan nggi ve nguy co bong bong vang co ve da thiic tinh cac nha dau tu va ving da de mat vai tio truyen tho'ng vao tay dong USD do gidi dau tu can tien mat va muo'n n i m giir tien mat. Vang rdt gia vdi to'c dp nhanh vi ddng eira phien giao dich cuoi cimg tiong nam 2011 vdi miie gia 1.606 USD/ounce. Nhu vgy, ke tir khi lap dinh tren 1.920 USD/ounce hoi dau thing 9, gii vang da quay dau truot do'c vi de ma't hon 300 USD/ounce, hrc 16%.
Nhirng bie'n dpng khong theo mpt xu hudng ro rang niy co the se la mpt bii hpe quy gia cho gidi dau tu vang trong nam 2012. Vin Igc quan tirong dy bao gia vang nam 2012 dua ra ngay 20/12, ngan hing BNP Paribas cho rang, gii ving binh quan nam tdi se chi d miic 1.775 USD/ounce.
Dil gia vang edn phy tinupe vao nhirng yeii to nhu siic manh dong USD, nhu cau ving vat chat oia chau A vi diln bien khung hoang np nhung cac to ehiic dy bao ldn nhu Morgan Stanley, TD Securities, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch v i SEB Merchant Banking deu cho rang gia ving se d miie binh quan tren 2.000 USD vao nam tdi hogc it nha't la vai lan
cham moc nay. ^ Tai lieu tham khio:
;. http://www.bloomt]erg.com;
2. http://www.kitco.coni;
3. http://www.marketwatch.com;
4. http://vmw.google.com/finance;
5. http://www.vietstock.vn;
6. http://www.vnecononiy.vn;