KHOA H p c - C O N G N G H £
Mot so' van de va giai p h a p ve tai chinh cua dtf an dau ttf xay dtfng cof s& h a tang theo hinh thiJc do'i tac cong - ttf
• T h S . V U MINH HANG Trudng Dgi hgc Giao thdng van tii
Tdm tat: Rdi ro ve mgt tii chinh cua dtf in dau tuxiy dtfng theo hinh thtfc ddi tic cdng - ttf anh hudng Idn din higu qui dtf in cung nhu tfnh kha thi cua chinh sich vi dau tu theo hinh thtfc niy. Vi vgy, thdng qua nghien ctfu trudng hgp dien hinh li Dtf in Dau tuxiy dUng Ham dudng bg Deo Ca, bii bio nh$n di$n vi phin tich rui ro theo cic gde dg vi quan diem khic nhau, ttf dd dua ra mgt so giil phip, kiin nghi degiam thiiu cic rui ro dd.
Jii khoa: Rui ro, tii chinh, dd'i tic cdng - tU, dtf in dau tu, BOT.
Abstract: The finaneial risks of PPP investment infrastructure construction project have great effect on project's effectiveness as well as the feasibility of this investment policy.
Thus, by studying the typical case which is the Ca Pass road tunnel construction investment project, all the project risks are needed to be identified and analyzed in order to come up with some solutions and recommendations to minimize those risks
Keyvifords: Risks and financial, of public - private, investment projects, BOT.
1 . Dgt va'n d l
Thdi gian qua, dau l u phdt tnen ed sd ha l a n g da dupe Chfnh phu vd cdc bd, nganh hel sQc quan ldm vdl nhieu chinh sdch thuc day va phat t r i l n , dae biet vdi ITnh vpc xdy d u n g hg l a n g kmh te - xa hpi ehua phat t r i l n day d u , thieu dong b d , linh kel ndi chua cao, ddi hdi phan Idn nguon lge ddu IU edng va dan so ngdy cdng tang nhanh. Chfnh phu phdi ddi mat vdi nhQng thach thQe vd ddi hdi v l nhu eau tang ten ciia dd thi hda; phuc hdi va edi tgo hoac md rdng nhQng c d sd hg l a n g dd cu hoac xay dpng mdi ed sd ha tdng 6 nhQng khu vQc chQa hoac da khdng cdn ddm bdo nhu cdu eho ngudi ddn.. c a t giam ddu lU tQ ngdn sdeh Nha nude thdi gian qua cung chinh td ly do ddn d i n chCi trQdng chung ta gidm I h i l u von Nha nude lham gia vdo phat trien cd sd hg tang. Trong d i l u kien hien nay, vide buy ddng vdn IQ IU nhdn td chia khda ddi vdi phat tnen ed sd hg lang d Vidt Nam.
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Dau tu theo md hinh dot tae edng - tQ (PPP) theo hinh thQc Hpp d i n g Xdy dung - Kinh doanh - Chuyen giao (BOT) va/hoac Xdy dgng - Chuyen giao (BT) la mdt gidi phdp dang dupe khuyen khich trong thdi gian vdi nam gan ddy, lrong dd Dp an Ddu t u xdy d u n g H a m d u d n g bd Deo Cd cd the dupe xem Id m d i Irudnq hpp dien hinh va 6 dd t h i hien rd net nhd't hdu h e l cac v a n de lien quan den rui ro tai ehinh c u a d u dn PPP.
Thgc te la tat cd cac dp dn hpp tac d l i tac cdng - IU deu tiem a n nhQng yd'u t l rCii ro va khu vpc IQ nhdn v d n dQpc eoi td cd khd ndng tdt hdn trong vide qudn ly eac rui ro nay thdng qua cdc hpp ddng PPP (Isleml, 2012). Mdt edeh chung nha't lhi d u d n PPP thanh edng la d p an cd dQpc s u thda Ihudn chung v l can can chia sd rCii ro glQa Nhd nudc va/cac nha ddu IU (Fredy, 2014).
Cdc nhd ddu t u t u nhdn, bdn cho vay danh gia tinh kha thi dp d n thdng qua vide phdn tich rOi ro dp a n . Qudn ly rui ro khd do sp phpc l g p v l mat ky thugt, phap ty cijng nhu tdi chinh eua cdc dp an dau t u xay dung hg tang ky thuat, trong dd cd ra't nhieu cac bdn lien quan trong hpp dong (Ng
&Loosemore, 2007). Shen (2006) cho rang, vide phan bd rui ro se "hidu q u a " n l u nhu cdc cdng tac nhu gidi phdng mat bdng, cde riji ro v l m^l phap ly va ehinh sach dQpe phdn bo cho khu vpc edng;
ede ri!ii ro tQ edng tdc t h i l t ke' va xdy dQng, rui ro van hanh va boat ddng cdng nghiep dQpc phdn bo cho khu vgc tQ nhdn; dong thdi ede rCil ro v l phat tnen, thi trQdng, bdt khd khang dQpc chia sd Chung cho ed khu vgc cdng va khu vQe tQ nhdn.
C d 4 logi rui ro eua dQ dn ddu tQ xdy dgng cd sd ha tdng chu y e u dupe xem xdt bao g d m :
1. Rui ro trong giai dogn Ihiet k l , xdy dpng, khai lhac va v d n h d n h ;
2. Rdi re tai ehinh d u a n ; 3. RQl ro thj IrUdng;
4. Rdi ro ben ngodi.
Pham vi nghien cQu c u a bai b a o ch? tap trung ve rui ro tai ehinh cija d p a n .
2. Npi dung 2.1. Phtfdng phip lu$n
V l mat ly thuyet va thUc l i i n tU n u d c ngodi lhi hinh thQc d a u IU PPP da dupc xdy d p n g va ap
KHOA H p c - C O N G N G H l -
d g n g k h d p h i b i l n , tuy nhien d Viet Nam m d i chi t h p c s p b a t dau tQ khodng 10 nam gan day. Vidt Nam lan ddu l i e n ban hdnh quy dinh v l cdc dQ an BOT v a o n a m 1994 lrong khudn kho c u a Ludt D a u t u nudc ngodi (FIL). T h a n g 8/1998, Chfnh phu Viet Nam da ban hanh Nghj djnh 62 d l dieu chlnh vide thpc hidn va ngudn vd'n eho eac d u a n BOT, Nghi dinh 02/1999, Nghi dmh 78/2007, sau dd la Nghj dinh 108/2009/ND-CP va Nghi dinh 15/2015/ND-CP.
2.2. Trudng htfp nghien ctfu diin hinh li Dtf in Diu tuxiy dung Him dudng bd Dio Ca
Chii ddu t u id Cdng ty Co phan D a u t u Deo Cd, Gidy chQng nhan dau t u s d 47/BKHDT- GCNDTTN ngay 24/10/2012, thpc hien theo hdp ddng BOT&BT giQa Bp G T V T va Cdng ly Co phdn D d u tU D e o C a s d 26/HDXD-Deo Ca ngdy 8/11/2012. T h d n g qua trudng hdp cu l h i eting nhu cdc ehinh sdeh da va dang ap dung, vide nghien cQu dQpe thuc hidn bat ddu IQ nhan dien va phan tich cae rQl ro tai ehinh cija dp a n , sau dd de xua't mdt sd gidi phap de hgn ehe cac rui ro nay.
Cac dQ kidn trong Hdp dong, Hpp d o n g tfn dung giQa Deo C d vd Vietinbank:
Tong mQc dau IQ va cd cdu lai chfnh eua d g dn:
Bang2.1. Co cau tai chinh cua Du in
Hpp phin BOT Vdn CSH l-dnvm BOT Tona Hop phan BT Ngan sadi Nha nuuc dao GPMB vaTDC
Tdng
20%
S0%
100°o 100%
100%
Tj' dong
2.111 S,4->4 10,555 4 509 5.19 1S,603
T\ trona TMDT 13.3%
54.1%
67.6%
28,9"o 3.5%
10O°o Nguon Hop Song BOT&BT
Tdng mUc dau t u ndu lrdn khdng bao gdm lal vay lrong qua lrinh xay dpng.
Thdi gian xay dung la 48 thang, thdi gian khai thdc phan BOT Id 29 nam vd thdi han hdp d d n g cho phan BT Id 10 n a m .
Lai sud't di vay dupc quy dmh lheo Hpp d o n g BOT&BT va tai sual theo cae hdp ddng tfn d u n g dupe the hien nhQ trong bdng sau:
Bang 2.2. Cic diiu ki^n vay von
LS lrong qua tnnh xay dung LS crong giai (to^n khai thac.
v^hanh Thm gian Su hau Thai )Qan dao han Kc hoacb lra DCT
Hop dong 26/HDXD-Deo
Ca BOT 11 3%
n 5%
BT 11 5%
11.5%
Hup dang tin dung vin Viainbank BOT
12 5%
12 5%
4 nam 15naiQ Be xuat
BT 13.0"/.
lOnam 85% trong 9 15%namlhu' 10 Ngudn-Hgp aSng BOT&BT ra Hap ddng tin dung Lgm phat vd IrQpt gid trong giai dogn xay dQng (2014 - 2017) dupe gid djnh la 10,0% mdi nam vd trong giai dogn vdn hanh va khai thac dupe gia dmh la 6,0%/ndm.
So 9/2015
Thue Thu nhdp doanh nghiep se dUdc Qu dai lheo quy dmh iai Thdng IQ 123/2012/TT-BTC 27/7/2012 cua Bd f d i chinh.
Chi phi sQ dung v d n binh qudn gia quyen (WACC) cho loan d u an dUdc tinh td 11,03% vdi ehi phi sQ dgng ngudn vdn ehu sd hQu la 9,15%, lai s u d l cho vay d mUe 11,5% BOT v d 11,50%
eho BT (theo Hpp ddng BOT&BT) va W A C C Id 12,13% chi phisQ dyng nguon vd'n ehu sd hQu Id 9,15%, lai sua't eho vay d mQc 12,5% cho phan BOT v d 13,0% eho phdn BT (sau khi cd cde Hpp ddng tin dyng vdi Vietinbank).
Thdi gian thu phf lai Tram Thu phi Ninh An Id 33,5 n a m , bat dau IQ ngay 01/7/2012 va Trgm Thu phi Ban Thgch la 31 nam k l IU ngay 01/01/2015.
Cac sd lieu khae sQ dung de linh loan nhu tUu lupng xe, mQc thu phf.. nhU trong Hpp ddng.
- Cac chT lieu tfnh loan dUpc dua lrdn cde thdng s d ndu t r d n :
Kha nang sinh ldi cua dU an dUde danh gia d u a tren eae chi tidu nhU:
+ S u a ! thu ldi not tai IRR;
+ Gia tri hien tgi rdng NPV;
+ Tham hgt tien mat hdng nam va tham hut t i l n mat tfch tOy...
Cde chf tidu hidu qua dupe tfnh loan vd t h i hidn nhu lrong bang sau:
Bang 2.3. Cac chi tiiu hiiu qua Theo Hop dong Hop dong Dn dung
BOT&BT vol Vietinbank WACC
IRR NPV Ghi chu
11 03%
11 11%
(S6 (i#« lhang 01 2012)
n 13%
52.31%
183 tv done Uinh loan lai sau khikyHDihiing
imois, NguOn • Hap ddng BOT&BT™ Hap dSng lln dung
Cdc tfnh loan mdi dupe ldp d u a theo cac lhdng s d lhay ddi do cac Hpp dong tfn d y n g phdn BT dUdc ky kel vdi Ngdn hang Vietinbank vao thang 01/2013 va phan BOT thang 10/2013 thi ta cd the tha'y rang IRR chi vQacao hdn W A C C , do vd'n vay eho nhQng nam dau cua lhdi hgn hpp dong la qud Idn trong khi doanh thu lai nhd. Vi vdy, tham h y l l i l n mat lich luy se dgi cue dgi vdo nam 2028 vd dat 7,216 ty ddng.
Hinh 2.1: Thim hgt tiin mat
Cac rui ro lai chinh cua DQ a n :
Cae rQl ro tai chfnh cua DQ an dQdc nghien cQu va phan lich bao gdm cd rui ro edng tdc giai phdng mat bang, rui ro mQc phf ban d a u , rui ro do cham trd thi cdng, rui ro lgm ehi gid xay dung, rui
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KHOA H O C - C O N G N G H f
ro lai sua't lrong q u d lrinh thi edng, rui ro chdnh lech giQa ddng tien v d ky hgn vay, rui ro dao ddng iai suat, rui ro hoan tra IU Chlnh phij, rui ro tdng mQc thu phi, riji ro tang trudng luu lupng giao l h d n g , riji ro lgm phdt ehi phi, rui ro chi p h i thay m d i . Ngodi ra, mdt s d riji ro b e n ngodi d u d n nhung cung anh hudng de'n tai chinh eua dQ an cd l h i ke de'n nhQ. Rui ro lai suat, rui ro dieu t i l l , riji ro bdt kha khdng.
Bang 2.4dUdi day gidi lhich cac nguydn nhan va cac bidn phdp giam thieu rui ro ehung cho ddng t i l n cu the etja d u a n .
Bang 2.4. Nguyin nhan vi cic bign phip giam thieu rOi ro chung cho dtf an
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2:;C't'.^j:;"'°°''^'"^'*""the gdy ra hieu Qng "snovi/ball" hay hidu Qng "qud eau tuydt" rat nguy hiem eho d p a n do t h a m hgt tien m d i tich luy tdng qua nhanh;
- D a m bao vide gdp vdn chij sd hQu dUpc thgc hien dung tien dd va ddy diJ, trong qud trinh ddu tU d l i a n . Ddy cung la mdt trong nhQng y l u i d d l cdi thien tinh an loan ve mat ldi ehinh eho d p d n ;
- Bd Irf du ngan saeh cho dgi lu (nam 2030), d l i mdi ede thid't bj hdm va tien hanh bdo dudng thudng xuydn d l trdnh hu hdng, xudng cd'p. Vi^c ndy dang xay ra doi vdi DQ dn ham dudng bd Hdi Vdn;
- Phat t r i l n ede ngudn thu khae (ed lidn quan va khdng lidn quan d e n dudng bd) d l b l sung doanh thu thu p h i c u a d p dn dang d mQc dd I h l p trong nhQng nam d a u •
Tai lipu tham khdo
[1]. Hgp dong Dtf in BOT/BT so 26/HDXD-Deo Ca gitfa 86 GTVT vi Cong ty CPDT Deo Ci ngiy 8/11/2012 vi Bio cao Diu ttf Dtf an DTXD Ham dudng bo Dio Ci; thda thuan cho vay.
[2]. Nghi dinh si 15/2015/ND-CP ngiy 14/02/2015 vi diu tU theo hinh thtfc dii tic cdng - ttf vi Nghi dinh 108/2009/ND-CP ngiy 27/11/2009 vi diu ttf theo hinh thtfc hgp dong BOT, BTO. BT.
[3]. Bio cao Ra soit NCKT lap bdi Liin danh ttf vin Nippon Koei, 5/2014.
[4]. Public-Private Partnerships (2007), Ngdn hang Phdt lrien chau A (ADB).
[5]. Fredy, Stephen, Ibrahim, (2014), Stf mong ddi cua cic bin khi sCt dung md hinh tii chlnh cho cac dtf in dii tic cing - ttf, Tgp chf Qudn ly Tai san va Mdi trudng D p an xay dQng, T d p 4 .
[6]. Istemi Demirag Iqbal Khadaroo Pamela Stapleton Caral Stevenson (2012), Stf phi biin cic rui ro trong hgp ding PPP, Tap chi K l todn, K i l m l o a n , 0 . 2 5 .
[7]. Ng, A. and Loosemore, M (2007), Phan bi rdi ro trong cac dtf in diu ttf xiy dtfng cd sd hg ting cing, T g p c h i Q u a n ly dQ dn Qud'c t e .
[8]. Istemi Demirag, Iqbal Khadaroo, Pamela Stapleton (2015), A changing market for PFI financing: Evidence from the financiers.
[9]. S h e n , L., Plallen, A. and Deng, X.P (2006), Vai trd cOa quan he dii tic cdng - tu di quin ly rOi ro trong cac dtf in cdng cing tgi Hing King, Tgp chi QLDA Qude t e , Tr. 587-94.
3. Ket ludn va kid'n ngbj
DQa tren cac riJi ro d a dQpe nhdn didn v d phan tich nhQ l r e n , sau ddy la m d i s d cac gidi phap d l xuat d l gdp phdn hgn che cdc rui ro:
- Gidm chi phi dau t u ban dau hdn bang eac bien phap nhu gidm chi phi dau thdu, tdng kinh nghiem eung nhu hidu q u d c u a cdng tde qudn ly d u an va gidm sat thi edng;
- Tdng mUc thu phi ddi vdi cdc phQdng lien ( n l u cd l h i ) d l cd the l d n g doanh l h u ;
- ThQdng IQpng v d i eac l l chQe lin dung d l keo dai thdi ban trd np gde cung nhQ thdi gian dn hgn d l i vdi ede khoan vay BT va BOT nhdm han e h l tdi da Ihdm h y t lien mat;
- Trdnh ap d y n g cac khodn vay ngdn hgn c d
N g a y nhgn b a i : 20/8/2015 Ngay c h a p nhgn d a n g : 10/9/2015 NgUdi phdn bi#n: PGS. T S . D | n g Thj Xudn Mai
P G S . T S . Bui Ngpc T o a n GS. TSKH. Nghidm Van DTnh