TAC DONG CUA DAI DICH COVID-19 DEN NGANH NGAN HANG VIET NAM:
THlTC TRANG VA MOT SO KHUYEN NGHI
Le Thanh Tam Trudng Dai hoc Kinh le Quoc ddn
Email: tamlt%neu.edi(.vn TrirffngThi Hoai Linh Trudng Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc ddn
Email- tinblh(cLneu-edu.vn Lu-ffng Thai Bao Trudng Dai hoc Kinh le Quoc ddn EmaiL hioiigtludhao(dneu.edu vn
Hodng Thj Lan Hu'o'ng Trudng Dai hoc Kinh le Quoc ddn
Email: [email protected] vn Do Hoai Linh Trudng Dqi hpc Kinh tc Quoc ddn
Email: [email protected] Ngay nhan 22/4/2020
Ngay nh£in ban sua. 05/5/2020 Ngay duyet dang: 05/6/2020
Tom tat
Dqi dich Covid-l9 dnh hudng nghiem irong tdi hdu het cdc ITnh vuc trong dm song kinh te - xd hoi. trong do co ngdnh ngdn bdng Bdi viet ndy ddnh gid ha tdc dong chu yeu cua dqi dich Covid-19 den ngdnh ngdn hdng ciia Vicl Nam: Thu nhdp tit lai gidm do sut gidm lai sudt huy dong vd cdp dn dung, Chdt lucrng idi sdn xau di do hoqt dong kinh doanh cua khdch hdng hi ngung tr^:
Sut gidm ihu nhdp tie dich vu do gia tdng ho tra khdch hdng ve phi dich vu. Tren ca sa do. hdi viel de xudl cdc khuyen nghi giup ngdnh ngdn hdng lan dung ca hoi, gidm thieu thdch thdc, virat qua kho khdn, phdt huy vai trd tich cue trong viec ho tra phuc hoi vdphdl irien nen kinh le. Ngdn hdng Nhd nudc cdn: (i) Tra giup true tiep thanh khodn cho cdc ngdn hdng ihuang mai co ho Ira cu the doi vai doanh nghiep gap kho khdn; (ii) Bo sung danh myc cdc doi tuang duac hu&iig ini tien Idi sudt Iran lien quan lai dqi djch hoac bien doi khi hau; (Hi) On dinh ly gid hoi dodi trong ngdn hqn Cdc dinh che tdi ddnh cdn. (i) Tdn dung ca hoi de phdi trim tin truang. sdn pham. kenh phdn phoi mai; (ii) Thong nhdt "ehudn chung" cho cong cuoc "gidi ciru " trdnh lam dung vd dong vdn di sai muc tieu ban ddu.
Tir khoa: Dai dich COVID-19, giai cflu, nganh ngan hang, tin dung, ty gid.
M a J E L : G 2 1 , b l 4 .
Impacts of covid-19 pandemic on Vietnamese banking sector: current situations and recommendations
A hstract"
The COVID-19 pandemic seriously affects almost all .socio-economic aspects and induslnes.
including banking sector. This study assessed three key impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on Vietnamese banking sector, interest income reduction due lo deposit and credit interest rales decline, deteriorated asset qualit)- due lo stagnant business operations of clients, and .service incomes fell due lo banks' supports lo customers on sendee charges On that hu'tis. the new recommendations are proposed for lietnam lo help the banking industry lake advantage of opportunities, minimize challenges to overcome difficulties, and support the economv Tlie Stale Bank of {•lelnani should (i) provide direct liquidity assistance financial institutions who provided direct supports for businesses facing difficulties: (ii) supplement the list o/ '.nh/ccls entitled to ceiling interest rate priority related lo pandemic or climate change: (Hi) stabilize exchange rale in the short term Financial institutions need lo (i) utilize opportunities to develop new market--, products and distribution channels: (ii) agree "common .standards" for llie "rescue" to avoid misuse and capital outflows to die original goals.
Kc\ words: Banking sector. Covid-19 pandemic, credit, e.xchange rale, rescue.
,//•;/ code: 021. D!4.
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1. Gioi thieu
Dai djch COVID-19 khian hoat dpng kinh te bi te het tam thai, anh huong nang ne den kha nang hoat dong lien tuc ciia hau het cdc doanh nghiep, suy giam thu nhap cua ca nhan. Nhi8u dy doan da duoc dua ra ve vien canh suy thoai kinh ti toan cdu, tham chi tang truong - 3 % trong nam 2020 (IMF, 2020), kinh ta toan cau c6 tha thiet hai khoang 1.000-2.000 ty USD (NEU, 2020). Viet Nam khong thg tranh khoi xu hudng nay, vdi su sut giam manh tang trudng GDP trong qui 1, d miic thap nhat trong 10 nam qua (T6ng cue Thong ke, 2020). Du bao kich ban ciia Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan du kian tang trudng quy 2 khoang 2% va tham chi suy thoai neu xay ra kjch ban xau (NEU, 2020). Kdt qua kinh doanh quy 1/2020 dugc cong bo da cho thay ro hon miic do anh hudng true tiep cua dai dich Covid-19 len loi nhuan va von cua cac ngan hang duac niem yet tai Viet Nam. Khong kho de nhan dinh rang tac dong nay se la khong nhd khi he thong ngan hang da va se phai tien hanh hang loat giai phap ho trg doanh nghiep va nen kinh te, dong nghia vdi sir suy giam Igi nhuan ciia ho. Nhu vay, he thong ngan hang tat yeu khdng nam ngoai tac dong tieu cue ciia dich benh. Co the ndi, Covid-19 va su lao doc cua gia dau deu da va dang gay anh hudng Idn den he thong ngan hang Viet Nam.
Do vay, viec phan tich tac dong cua COVID-19 den nganh ngan hang la can thiet de Ngan hang nha nudc Viet Nam (NHNN) ciSng nhu cac co quan quan ly va cac td chitc tin dung cd nhimg co che chinh sach phu hop nham ho tro cho cac ddi tuong bi tac ddng true tiap cung nhu gian tiep trong nen kinh te.
2. Tac dong cua dai dich Covid-19 den nganh ngan hang Vi|t Nam
Dai dich Covid-19 la thach thuc chua tirng cd tien le ddi vdi nen kinh te toan cau. Anh hudng cua COVID-19 len nen kinh te Viet Nam la rat nang ne.
Theo Ban Nghien cuu Phat trien Kinh te tu nhan (Ban IV) vdi khdo sat tren 1.200 doanh nghiep ve anh hudng ciia Covid-19 tdi hoat dong kinli doanh cho thdy, nau Covid-19 keo dai 6 thang. 74*'(i doanh nghiep cd tha sc pha san (Hiing Anh, 2020). Du bao kich ban cua Dai hoc Kinh te Quoc dan 2020 cho thdy 93.9% cdng ty bi tac dpng tieu cue ti'r Covid-19, tang trudng kinh tc se giam xudng 2%. VNlndex giam 28"o va xudt khau giam 25"<. neu djch keo dai dan hat thang 6/2020 (NEU. 2020).
Cling vdi xuat nhap khau, du lich, van tai, san xuat ndng - lam nghiep va thiiy san, san xudt cdng nghiep, nganh ngan hang tai Viet Nam dang trai qua nhirng giai doan khd khan va van chua tha du doan chinh xac cac diln bian tiep theo.
Thu nhdt. Idi sudt cho vay gidm de ho tra khdch hdng vay von bi dnh huang bai Covid-19 trong khi tdng tncang tin dung a mice thap lam gidm thu nhdp lu lai cua ngdn hdng.
De hd tra cho nen kinh te ndi chung va cac doanh nghiep ndi rieng trong tinh hinh djch Covid-19.
lai suat la yau td dang duac can nhac nhieu nhat, khi nhiau hudng ddn ciia Ngan hang Nha nudc deu hudng tdi viec uu tien danh moi nguon lire da cac ngan hang cd the mien giam lai suat cho khach hang chju anh hudng bdi dich. Sau Chi thj sd 16/CT-TTg cua Thu tudng Chinh phii va Chi thj so 02/CT- NHNN ciia Thong ddc Ngan hang Nha nudc ve cac giai phap cap bach ciia Ngan hang nham tang cudng phong, chdng va khac phuc kho khan do Covid-19, nhieu ngan hang lien tiep trian khai cdc chuong trinh hd trg danh cho khdch hang doanh nghiep va khach hdng ca nhan. Cac ngan hang da danh mdt lugng tin dung khong nlid de cho vay mdi vdi lai suat uu dai nham hd trg doanh nghiep tiap tuc duy tri hoat ddng san xuat kinh doanh. Mire giam lai suat thdng thudng la 0,5%-1,5%/nam cho cac khoan vay mdi, d mdt sd ngan hang cdn cd miic cat giam sau hon d muc 2%- 5% nhu TPBank. HDBank, Vietcombank. Ban canh dd, nhieu ngan hang cQng dua ra uu dai lai suat cho cdc khoan vay hien him, dien hinh nhu Vietcombank vdi miic giam 1%-1,5%/nam cho khoan vay ndi te va 0,5%-0.75%/nam cho cac khoan vay bang USD den het thang 9/2020, hay VIB vdi mire giam 0,5%- 2%/nam trong 6 thang tdi cho tat ca cac khdch hang doanh nghiep hien hiru bat ke quy md hay ITnh vuc.
Mac dii da cd nhieu uu dai ve lai suat nhu vay, theo Tdng cue Thdng ke (2020), tang irudng tin dung toan nganh 3 thang dau nam van d mire khd thap, chi khoang 0,68%. tiong khi ciing ky nam trudc tang 1.9%. Sd lieu nay cho thay cau tin dung yeu di mot phan dang ka do cac doanh nghiep dang gap nhiau khd khan, phai thu hep hoai dpng san xuat kinh doanh, lam giam vdng quay cua vdn, Qu\
1/2020 cd mire tang truong tin dung thap nhat trong 5 nam trd lai da\. dac biet tin dung ddi \ di cac nganli giao due. van tai. du lich, luu tru, an udng...
Cac doanh nghiep hoat ddng cam chimg hoac So 276 thdng 6/2020
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liiii trienHinh 1: Tang trudng tin dung quy 1 hang nam cua he th6ng ngan hang
Nguon: Ngdn hdng Nhd nu&c (2020c) vd Tong cue Thong ke (2020).
khdng san xuat khdng phdi vi thiau v6n ma vi cau giam silt nghiem trong, ehudi sdn xuat toan cau bj dinh tre, nen cho dii lai suat thap, cac doanh nghiep cd tha se khdng phan ung hoae phdn ung rat yeu vdi chinh sach giam lai suat nay. Thuc te nay do thu nhap ciia mpt bp phan ngudi dan dang hoac se dung trudc nguy co sut giam, he qua la suy giam sire cau, dan tdi luu thdng, tieu thu hang hda tri tre, hang tdn kho tang cao, cd the day nen kinh te lam vao suy thoai. Thdng ke (Tdng cue Thdng ke, 2020) cho thay, tdng doanh sd ban le hang hda va doanh thu dich vu tieu diing hai thang dau nam nay chi dat 863.900 ti ddng, tang 8,3% so vdi cung ky, trong khi hai thang dau nam 2019 tang 12,2%. Neu loai tru yeu td gia thi hai thang dau nam nay chi tang 5,4%, thap hon rdt nhieu muc tang 9,3% cua ciing ky nam 2019 (Thuy La, 2020). Dac biet, thdi gian tdi, khi sd doanh nghiep pha san ngay cang cao, tinh trang no nan giua doanh nghiep vdi ngan hang cung nhu giira doanh nghiep vdi nhau cd nguy co tang vot, cd the khien vdng quay cua vdn tham chdm lai. Thuc ta cho thay vdng quay vdn cham lai cdn do Idng tin suy giam, bao gdm long tin ciia doanh nghiep, ngudi tiau dung va trien vong kinh ta va Idng tin giiia cac ddi tac, ban hang, khien doanh nghiep khdng dam md rdng quy md, tham chi thu hep lai, cac phuong thirc thanh toan goi dau bi han che. Trong khi dd, do hoat dpng san xuat kinh doanh dinh tre. ehudi cung ung bj dut quang, nhieu doanh nghiep hien nay khdng nhimg khdng vay vdn ma cdn cd xu htrdng giii tian d ngan hang. He qua la ngan hang roi vao tinh trang
thira thanh khoan, khi huy ddng tang manh nhung cho vay tang qua cham.
Mdt nguyan nhan khac khien du ng cho vay cua ngan hang chua the tang dugc, ka ca tir gdi hd trg 250.000 ty ddng, la viec ra soat cac khach hdng hi dnh hudng khdng ha de dang. Vdi nhirng doanh nghiep chiu anh hudng true tiep, viec xac dinh co nhiing tiau chi va can cii nhat dinh thdng qua Ijch sii kinh doanh ciia doanh nghi?p. Nhung vdi nhihig doanh nghiep chju tac ddng gidn tiap bdi Covid-19, anh hudng se khd dinh lugng, ddi hdi ca phia ngan hang va doanh nghiep nd lire tim tilng ndi chung de tim hudng ho tro hieu qua vd thiet thuc nhat. Vi ban chat, cac ngan hang cung la ngudi kinh doanh, nhung boat dpng trong mot ITnh vuc chiia d^mg nhieu nil ro va phai tuan thii cdc quy dinh \i cho vay, khdng tha de dang ndi Idng cac quy dinh cho vay, nham tranh gay ra cdc hau qua nhu ng xau tang cao hay mat kha nang thanh khoan.
Thu hai, chdt luang tdi sdn cua cdc ngdn hdng thuong mai dang xau di
Nhieu ngan hang tai Viet Nam se phai ddi mat vdi nii ro chat lugng tai san suy gidm do Covid-19 gay ra. Trong dd viec ng xau tang cao trong cdc nganh bi anh hudng true tiep nhu sdn xuat va thucmg mai la mpt nguy ca. Chat lugng tai san trong cdc ngan hang tai Viet Nam se gap rui ro vi chuoi cung ung bj gian doan. N6u dich benh cdn keo ddi, no xau trong khu vuc san xuat - kinh doanh, thuong mai va mgt sd ITnh vuc khac theo do se tang len. bdi Viet Nam Id nudc phu thugc nhieu vdo ehudi cung ung toan cdu.
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Ngan hang Standard Chartered mdi day da dua ra danh gia tac ddng giai doan ddu ciia dich Covid-19 doi vdi cac n6n kinh te d chau A trong bdo cdo "Chau A - Do ludng phoi nhilm do su gian doan cua dich Covid-19 gay ra" (Trang Nguyin, 2020). Theo do, cac tac dpng chinh bao gdm anh hudng true tilp cac nan kinh te dang chong dich, tiap do la gian doan ehudi cung ung cung cap nguyen lieu trung gian va ngudn cau du lich tir Trung Qude giam. Theo ngan hang nay, ddi vdi hdu het cac nen kinh te d khu vuc, Trung Qude chiem hem 20% tdng sd hang hda trung gian nhap khau su dung trong san xuat. Ddi voi Viet Nam va Han Qude, ty le nhap khau hang hda trung gian tir Trung Quoc lan tdi hon 30%. Do vay, dich benh se cd tdc dpng Idn nhat den san xuat vdn la dpng lue tang trudng manh nhat cua Viet Nam trong nhiing nam gan day. Tac dpng cd the se tap trung vao qui 1/2020 (tang trudng cham lai xuong cdn 4,5% so vdi nam trudc), va chi cd thi hdi phuc trong nua eudi nam. Du kien tang trudng san xuat se giam xudng cdn khoang 8% trong nam nay tir mdc 11,3% nam 2019, cd the lay di 0,4-0,6 diem phan tram tir tang trudng GDP. Din thdi dilm khu vuc san xuat - kinh doanh, du lich, hang khdng, ban le, Cling chiu anh hudng tir dich benh, kha nang dao han cac khoan vay tir giai doan trudc se gap khd khan.
Chat luong tai san suy giam khdng chi phat sinh tu cac khoan tin dung kinh doanh ma ddi vdi ca tin dung tieu diing. Khi nen kinh te bi tdn thuong vi Covid-19, lan sdng cat giam lao dpng dang lan rdng trong cac nganh nghe nhu hang khdng, du lich, ban le, giai tri, an udng.... Va he qua la thu nhap ciia nhieu hd gia dinh va ca nhan se suy giam, keo theo khd khan trong viec ehi tra cac khoan ng tiau diing dan han. Nhiing khach hang ca nhan vay mua nha, mua d td hay phai thanh toan cac khoan no ciia nhiau loai the tin dung ciing la nhirng ngudi bi djch benh tac dong tdi nhu mat viec lam, tien luong bi cat giam, din den nguy co khd tra ng diing han, Ng xau tin dung tiau dung theo dd cung se gia tang neu nhiau td ehiic tin dung hoac cdng ty tai chinli khdng cd cac chinh sach mien, giam hoac gian ng cho khach hang.
Theo Bp Lao dong, Thucmg binh va Xa hdi (trich bdi NEU, 2020), so ngudi thdt nghiep den nop hd so hudng bao hiem that nghiep trong thang 2/2020 tang gdn 60% so vdi 1 thang tmdc dd, len tdi gan 48 000 ngudi. Con sd nay ciing cao hon 70% so vdi cung ky nam 2019. Trong so nhirng ngudi that nghiep nay va ca nhung ngudi dang bi ng luong do doanh nghiep
tam dimg boat ddng, khong thieu nhiing ngudi da va dang cd nhimg khoan vay tiau diing tai nhilu ngan hang da hoac sap den ngay dao han.
Vao ngay 24/2/2020, Ngan hang Nha nudc da cd van ban yeu cau cac td chiic tin dung co cau lai thdi ban tra ng, miln giam lai vay, tam thdi giir nguyen nhdm ng cho khach hang ddi vdi cac khoan ng bi anh hudng bdi djch Covid-19 va cd du ng gdc va/
hoac lai den ky han tra ng trong khoang thdi gian tir ngay 23/12/2019 din ngay 31/3/2020. Day cd the coi la mpt bien phap ciia Ngan hang Nha nude nham giam sir gia tang ciia cac khoan ng xau trong ngan han. Tuy nhien, neu dich benh cdn keo dai, bien phap nay cd the tri hoan viec ghi nhan ng xau tai nhiau ngan hang, keo theo dd la nii ro lam suy giam chat lugng tai san ciia nhiing ngan hang nay.
Quy dinh ciia Ngan hang Nha nudc chi la bien phap mang tinh hanh chinh da tam thdi kiem soat no xau ciia ngan hang. Mau chdt cho dam bao su lanh manh ciia cac td chuc cho vay nay van la ngudn du phdng ng mat vdn ma ngan hang hien dang cd va cd the trich lap them. Theo Minh Tam (2020), cuoi nam 2019, 3 ngan hang cd ty le du phdng bii dap ng xau (gdm ca ng chua du phong tai Cdng ty Qudn ly tai san - VAMC) cao nhdt Id Vietcombank (182%), ACB (175%) va MB (110%), cung nghia rdng 3 ngan hang nay nhiau du dia nhat trong vice diing du phdng da Xii ly ng xau. BacABank (109%), TPBank (98%) gay an tugng khi nam trong top 5 ngan hang c6 ty le du phdng bii dap ng xau cao nhat. Ke do la Teehcombank (95%). Agribank (90%) va HDBank (87%). VietinBank va BIDV nam d nhdm trung binh kha vdi ty le du phdng bii dap ng xau lan lugt 75%
va 67%. SHB tao ngac nhian khi ly le du phdng bii dap ng xau tang manh len 57%) (tir muc 27% thdi diem mot nam trudc) nhd manh tay xir ly ng xau tai VAMC nhung van tang duoc sd du du phdng.
Dich benh cung lam cham lai tien do thuc hien phuong an co cau lai gan vdi xu ly ng xau cua cac td chuc tin dung (TCTD) va kha nang phuc hdi ciia cac TCTD yau kem. Theo udc tinh cua Ngan hang Nha nude trong Bao cao sd 67/2020 (Ngan hang Nha nudc. 2020d) \i Tac dong ciia dich Covid -19 len nen kmh te. tien te, vdi 2 kich ban tang trudng kinh te nhu Bd Ka hoach \a Dau tu dua ra. trudng hgp dich dien bien phuc tap nhu hien nay va duac kiem soat trong quy 2/2020 thi ty le no xau (gdm ng xau ndi bang, ng da ban cho \ AMC va ng da thuc hien cac bien phap phan loai ng) se d mire gan 4% vao
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kJiililcJ'liallricn
cuoi quy 2 va 3,7% eudi nam 2020. Nhu vay. viec kiem soat muc tieu kilm soat ty le ng xdu hay chat lugng tin dung ciia he thong ngan hang se la thach thiic ddi vdi ca nganh ngan hang, ddi hdi no luc rdt Idn ciia khdng chi cac ngan hang ma ciia ca nln kmh te de dam bao su an todn cho he thdng.
Thu ba, thu nhdp lu dich vu cua cdc ngdn hdng thucmg mai cQng suy gidm do hd tra khdch hdng ve phi dich vu ngdn hdng
Ngan hang Nha nudc yeu cau cac ngan hang thucmg mai giam phi dich vu chuyan tiln qua he thdng thanh toan di?n rtr, Ngay 31/3/2020, Ngan hang Nha nudc da ban hanh Thdng hi sd 04/2020/
TT-NHNN dieu chinh giam 50% phi giao dich thanh todn qua he thdng thanh toan dien tii Han ngan hang (cd hieu luc ke tir ngay 01/4/2020). Qua do, co quan nay yau cau cac to chirc tin dung, chi nhdnh ngan hang nudc ngoai khan truong diau chinh gidm phi dich vu chuyen tien qua he thdng thanh todn dien tii lien ngan hang ciia Ngan hang Nhd nudc cho khach hang vdi muc giam tdi thiau bang sd tian giam phi ma Ngan hang Nha nudc da dieu chinh giam cho TCTD, chi nhanh ngan hang nudc ngoai. Ngan hang Nha nude cung khuyen khich cac TCTD, chi nhanh ngan hang nudc ngoai thuc hien gidm phi Idn hon mue giam phi ciia Ngan hang Nhd nudc da thuc hien. Thdi gian thuc hien tir ngay 01/4/2020 den het ngay 31/12/2020.
Theo Ngan hang Nha nudc (2020b), hien cd 37 ngan hang xac nhan mian/gidm phi eho khach hang, chiem ty trgng 98,9% tdng sd luong giao dich chuyen tien qua Cdng ty Thanh toan qude gia Viet Nam - NAPAS. Trong sd 37 ngan hang thuc hien miln/giam phi lan nay, cd 14 ngan hang dua mirc phi thu kliach hang ve bang 0 ddng, chiem 49.1% lugng giao dieh mian phi dich vu, cu the: Teehcombank, TPBank, MB. VPBank, MSB, PVcomBank. Viet Captial Bank, OCB, BAOVIET Bank, Hong Leong Bank, SeaBank, Eximbank va UOB thuc hien mian phi loan bp tren tat ca cac kanh, riang Shinhan Bank ap dung miln phi tren kenh internet banking va mobile banking. 23 ngan hang trian khai muc gidm Idn hon hoac tdi thieu tuong duong mirc giam ciia NAPAS. chilm 49.S'\> lugng giao dich thuc hien giam phi djch vu ciia NAPAS. Muc phi thu trung binh dao ddng tir 1.000 ddng din 10.000 ddng (chua bao gdm VAT) dugc cdc ngan hdng dp dung tiiy theo ddi tugng khach hang, kanh giao djch vao tirng
thdi dilm gdm: Vietcombank. BIDV, VietinBank, Sacombank, ACB, SCB. LienVietPostBank, SHB.
HDBank, VietABank, NCB. IVB. Bac A Bank.
VietBank, Kienlongbank, Nam A Bank, PG Bank, OceanBank, GPBank, Public Bank Vietnam, VIB.
Agribank \ a IBK chi nhdnh Ha Ndi.Trong lan giam phi nay. Public Bank Vietnam, Nam A Bank va VietBank dp dung mirc phi thu tdi thilu 2.000 ddng/giao dich. Mot sd ngan hang Idn thuc hien dilu chinh giam phi nhe so vdi muc phi trudc dd nhu Vietcombank vd BIDV dp dung mirc thu 5.000 ddng/giao dich, VietinBank thu 7.000 ddng giao dich. Thdng tin chi tilt vl chuong trinh mian, giam phi dich vu chuyan tiln nhanh lian ngan hang 24'7 deu da dugc cac ngan hang dua len website ciia cac ngan hang tham gia chuong trinh.
3. Mot so khuyen nghi
Nganh ngan hang Id mot trong nhirng nganh tian phong thuc hien nhieu chinh sdch da hd trg nen kinh ta (Ngan hang Nha nudc, 2020a; Ngan hang Nha nudc, 2020b). Tuy vay, da tdi uu hda cac co hdi, giam thieu thach thiic tir dai dich COVID-19, mot sd khuyen nghi mdi dugc di xuat bd sung cu the nhu sau:
3.1. Khuyen nghi vdi Ngdn hdng Nhd nifdc Gidi phdp I. Tra giup inrc tiep ve lhanh khodn cho nhung ngdn hdng co ho Ira thiet thuc vd cu the doi vdi doanh nghiep gap khd khdn, thdng qua do tra giup tlianh khodn cho he thdng doanh nghiep.
ddc biet la doanh nghiep vica vd nhd hi dnh hudng bai dqi dich.
Xem xet tiap tuc ha lai suat dieu hanh tham tir 0,1 - 0,2% trong 1-2 thang tdi, hoac xem xet tang chi tieu tang trudng tin dung, nhung chi ap dung cho nhirng ngan hang cd nhimg hd trg thiat thuc ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep. Nen uu tien tiap tuc thuc hien nhirng cai each mang tinh cau triic nham hudng tdi mdt he thdng tian te lanh manh han trong tuong lai. chir khdng ap dung dan trai cho mpi td chirc tin dung. Nhirng "ho trg" \a lai suat, neu cd, chi nen gidi han d nhirng doanh nghiep true tiep chiu tac ddng ciia benh djeh theo hudng "giam lai" hay "chia se khd khan" tir nganh ngan hdng. chir khdng phai tang md rpng tien te hay tin dung \ao nan kinh tl.
Cho phep cdc td chirc tin dung duoc ca cdu lai thdi han tra ng nhimg giir nguyen nhdm ng ddi vdi cac doanh nghiep lot. cd tiem nang nhung hi anh huang true tiap ciia Covid-19.
So 276 thdng 6/2020 kinltlcJ'liiiiirH'
Ca sa de xudt gidi phdp
(i) Du kiln khung hoang kinh tl thi gidi 2020 se dien ra cdn nang nl hon khiing hoang tai chinh va suy thodi kinh tl toan cau 2008-2009, anh hudng tdi tat ca cac qude gia (Cox, Z., 2020). Do vay, Viet Nam nen chuan hi sdm dl giam thilu tac ddng tieu cue ciia khiing hoang kinh te, giam lai sudt de kich cau nen kinh tl sdm han.
(ii) Kinh nghiem qude te hien nay: ho trg thanh khoan eho cac doanh nghiep la quan diem dugc nhieu nha kinh te hoc ndi tiang de xuat nhu Mankiw (2020), Baldwin, R. & Weder di Mauro, B (2020), Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman (2020). Nhilu qude gia da trien khai cac chinh sach manh me theo quan diem nay nhu: hd trg tien mat true tilp cho cac cdng ty nhd trong ITnh vuc nha hang va du lich dang bi ddng cira (Phap, Anh), cho cac doanh nghiep vay khdng gidi han (Due), ngirng thu ng ddi vai cac khoan vay the chap bat ddng san (Tay Ban Nha), thay doanh nghiep chi tra phan Idn mirc luong cua ngudi lao ddng trong thdi gian ho nghi viec do dich benh (Thuy Dien), bao lanh cac khoan vay ngan hang d cac doanh nghiep vira va nhd vd mua trai phiau cac doanh nghiep Idn (Na Uy) (Klianh Lan, 2020).
(iii) Viet Nam van cd Igi the ve du dja giam lai suat dieu hanh do mirc giam lan dau vao ngay 16/3/2020 thdi gian qua tirong ddi than trpng - mdi d mirc 0-0,25% (hien lai suat tai chiat khau la 3,5%)), dieu nay giup dam bao viec giam lai suat cd tha tac dpng tuong ddi hieu qua tdi nen kinh te (trong khi lai suat tai chiet khau tai nhieu qude gia ciia Chau Au va My da xudng gan nhu bang 0, khdng cdn du dia giam nua, nen hieu qua chinh sach tien te sc yeu hon rat nhieu),. .
(iv) Xuat phat tir nhu cau cap thiet eiia rat nhieu doanh nghiep Viet Nam, dac biet cac nganh bj anh hudng tiau cue do Covid-19. Cdc doanh nghiep nay hien dang rat can dugc hd trg ve thanh khoan nhu tang tien vao (vay tien lai suat uu dai), hoac giam lien ra (gian, hoan nop thue, phi, lai suat, bao hidm,...).
Tinh lhanh khoan, ddng tiln mat, hay cdn gpi la '1dp dem vdn" mdi la yeu td giiip doanh nghiep sdm vugt qua khd khan. Quan sat nhiing doanh nghiap Idn bi phd san trong cac dot suy thoai kinh te trong hai thap nidn qua chii yau la vi quan trj tdi chinh yau kem (Nguyen Dung, 2020).
(v) Trong bdi canh lam phat ciia Vict Nam dang
cd nguy ca tang nhanh nhu hien nay thi khdng nen dat them ganh nang thuc day tang trudng cho chinh sach lien te Do vay, cac "hd trg" va lai suat, nlu cd, chi nen gidi han cho cae td chirc tin dung cd ho tra thuc sir rd rang tdi nhimg doanh nghiep true tilp chiu tac ddng cua benh dich theo hudng "giam lai"
hay "chia se khd khan" tir nganh ngan hang, chir khdng phai lang md rpng tian te hay tin dung chung cho ca nan kinh ta.
(vi) Trong mdt the gidi nhilu bat dn, chinh sach tian te lai cang can phai kien quyet vdi muc tiau kiem soat lam phat da cd dugc su tin cay tir cdng chung.
Khi cd idng tin vao chinh sdch tian te, ki vgng lam phat se dugc neo mpt each chac chan vao muc tiau ma Ngan hang Nha nudc da da ra. Khi dd, ngay ca khi nen kinh te gap phai cdc cu sdc bat loi thi doanh nghiep sc khdng, hoac it tang gia bdi hp khdng ki vgng lam phat se tang. Nguoc lai, neu chinh sdch tian te trd nan thieu nhat quan, rat cd tha hien tugng
"tat nudc theo mua" ddi vdi sir tang gia se xay ra ngay ca khi su md rong tian te chi la tam thai. Khi dd, cai gid ciia viec giam lam phat se Idn han rat nhieu,
(vi) Hien tai theo quy dinh trong Thdng tu 02/2013/TT-NHNN vd sira ddi tai Thdng tu sd 09/2014/TT-NHNN vl phan loai tai san cd va trich lap, sir dung du phdng, khi TCTD gia han no, khoan no do ngay lap ttic bj xep hang vao nhdm 3, anh hudng tdi ca khach hang (trong thdng tin tran Trung tam Thdng tin tin dung - CIC, phat lai) va TCTD (trich lap du phdng tang len, ty le ng xau cao hon).
Gidi phdp 2. Bd sung them danh muc ihir 6 ve cdc doi tuong duac huang uu Hen ve Idi sudt Iran trong diiu 13. khodn 2. Thdng tu 39/2016/TT-NHNN ve Quy dinh hoat dong cho vay cua TCTD: "Phuc vu Ihih vuc hi dnh huang true tiep ciia dqi dich hoac bien doi khi hdu ".
Ca sd de xudl giai phdp
(i) Xu hudng dich benh va bien ddi khi hau ngay cang mang tinh chat quoc te, Viet Nam la mdt trong nhung quoc gia bj anh hudng nghiem trpng ciia bien ddi khi hau Do md ciia nan kinh ta Viet Nam ciing khian cho dai dich tran the gidi nhu Covid-19 de dang lan den Viet Nam va anh hudng nghiam trpng tdi cac doanh nghiep. ca nhan, td chirc trong nan kinh te.
(ii) Hien tai. 5 linh vir*-' ""i" 'ien ciia Vict Nam chua cd npi dung hd trg cac doanh nghiep. td chuc
SS 276 thdng 6/2020
kliililrJIiiiMrirn
nam trong ITnh vuc bi anh hudng cua dai dich va bian ddi khi hau. Dd la cac Iinh vuc Phat triln ndng nghiep, nong thdn theo quy dinh cua Chinh phii ve chinh sach tin dung phuc vu phdt triln ndng nghiep, ndng thdn; Thirc hien phuong an kinh doanh hang xuat khau theo quy djnh tai Luat thucmg mai va cac van ban hudng dSn Luat thucmg mai; Phuc vu kinh doanh ciia eac doanh nghiep nhd va vira theo quy dinh ciia Chinh phii; Phat trian nganh cdng nghiep hd trg theo quy dinh ciia Chinh phu vl phat triln cdng nghiep ho trg; Phuc vu kinh doanh ciia doanh nghiep ung dung cdng nghe cao theo quy djnh tai Luat cdng nghe cao va cae van ban hudng ddn Luat cdng nghe cao.
(iii) Lai suat tran cd hieu qua ngan han va tac dgng true tiap nhat dinh trong mdt sd trudng hgp tai Viet Nam. Day la mdt trong nhiing cdng cu tac dpng true tiep tdi thi trudng tin dung, nhung cung cho phep cac td chiic tin dung cd su linh hoat nhat dinh va vai trd chu dpng khi dp dung quy dinh nay.
(iv) Gdp phdn true tiap giiip Viet Nam hoan thanh sdm cac muc tieu phat trien ban viing eua Lien Hiep Qude.
Gidi phdp 3. Tang cudng cdc bien phdp dn dinh ty gid hoi dodi trong ngdn han
Thu nhdt, cung cap thanh khoan qude ta trong pham vi cho phep va nguon lire tren thj trudng ngoai hdi npi dia, nham muc tieu dn dinh tdi chinh.
Tine hai. sir dung quyen tiep can ddi vdi cac ngudn vdn quoc te di gia tang du trir ngoai hdi qude gia, nhdm muc cung cdp von xu ly dinh tre va hudng tdi thuc day tang trudng sau dich benh.
Thu ba: Vdi kjch ban xau hon ciia nen kinh te, dinh tre keo dai hi 2 quy trd len cd tha:
(i) Tinh todn din phuong an phdt hanh trai phieu cua Ngan hang Nha nudc de hd trg thanh khodn ndi dia va qude te eua Viet Nam.
(ii) Len kich ban cho ndn kmh ta vT md nau mat gia cua dong tian roi vao 3 miic 1-3%, 3-5%, va 5-7%) dh cd cac phuong an thich hgp vdi chinh sach tien te ciia minh.
(ill) Trong tinh hudng xdu nhdt, chuan bj phuong an "ngdt m^ch" thi trudng ngoai hdi, cu tha la sir dung bien phap hanh chinh lien quan din cac giao dich vang lai dl chi cung cdp dich vu ngoai hdi cho cac ho^t dong hen quan din y la. kinh doanh.
Ccy so- di xudt gidi phdp
Thir nhdt, xudt phat tir nguyen ly qudn ly ty gia.
Hai md hmh vl quylt dinh ty gia trong ngdn ban cd thi dugc sii dung dl giai thich ty gia USD/VND tai Vi?t Nam. N I U coi thdi gian khung hoang Id luc cau ve thanh khoan tang, thi hien bdng cdu tian mjt (tien trong nii va tiln giii thanh toan tai ngan hang - thanh khoan qude ndi) tang thi chiing ta se thdy xu hudng chuyin ddi cac tai san tdi chinh ve tien mdt. Neu qude gia nao cd dp md cua nan kinh ta Idn, md hinh nln kinh te nhd va md cua - do dd phu thudc vao thj trudng the gidi, thi mdt each tu nhian cau tian mat ngoai te (kha dung sir dung cho muc dich thanh toan quoc tl - thanh khoan qude te) ciing cd xu hudng tang vdi tdc dp ed the it hon so vdi cai cua ndi te'.
Dac diem ciia qude gia nhd va md cira se ddi hdi hp phai ludn thuc hien cac cam ket tra ng ngoai va thuc hien cac hoat dpng nhdp khau tu ddng de dam bao nln kmh tl tilp hie van hanh, ngay ea khi xuat khau bi dinh tre vi ly do nao dd. Tham niia, lien he cac thdng tin "mdi" vl tinh hinh kinh te vT md cd the sir dung de gidi thich udc lugng tdt nhat cua thi trudng (cdng bd ty gia ky ban ciia nhd budn tien chuyan nghiep) ve bien ddng ciia ty gia hoi doai la hieu qua, hay ndi each khac la khdng thien vi (unbiased).
Thir hai, thuc tiln bien dpng cua ty gia hdi doai tai Viet Nam: Trong vdng gan hai thang tir dau thdng 12/2019 din eudi thdng 1/2020, ty gia hoi doai cua Viet Nam dn dinh d muc thap nhat ke tir giiia nam 2018. Vao ngdy 22/1/2020 khi tinh hinh djch benh lan rdng va sd ca nhiam tang len, ty gia USD/VND da cd bien dpng theo chiau hudng VND yeu di
\d tiep theo la xu hudng cai thien vao 2 tuan eudi cimg ciia thang thdng 2/2020 tuy rang gia trj ciia VND khdng quay lai dugc dinh cao 2 thang trudc dd (Bloomberg, 2020). Thdi diem Viet Nam thanh lap "Ban chi Dao quoc gia phdng, chdng djch" vao ngay 01/02/2020 rai vao khoang thdi gian nay cho thay nhirng bien ddng eiia he thdng cham sdc sue khde qude gia vd lo ngai cua thi trudng ve bien dpng kinh ta da dugc phan anh vao ty gia hdi doai. Lap luan nay cang thuyet phuc hon neu bien ddng ciia ty gia hdi doai dugc so sanh vdi sut giam cua chi sd chiing khoan va gia vang tai Viet Nam trong ciing mdt khung thdi gian. Cac thdng tin vT md dugc coi la "mdi" tai Viet Nam gdm: dien bien ciia dich b?nh, dien bien ciia han ban tai cac tinh Dong bdng sdng Cuu Long, diln bien ciia gid dau the gidi, dien biln tinh hinh kinh doanh cua hem 800.000 doanh nghi?p Vici Nam thue ta da phan dnh ty gia hdi doai cd phan
So 276 thdng 6/2020
kintileJ'liallnpii
nghiep han chi di chuyin nhdt cd the. han nhu eo cdu thdi ban tra ng, giam lai, phi hay giu Gidi phdp 2. Thong nhdt vd thdng bdo tai cdc nguyan nhdm ng.
doanh nghiep "chuan chung" cho cdng cuoc "gidi Ca sd de xudt gidi phdp
CUV " neu khong mudn bi lam dung vd ddng vdn di (i) Tranh tinh trang cdng cugc "giai cdu" duoc lan sai muc tieu ban ddu truyen rpng rai, nhung khdng dugc thuc thi chuan
Cac td chuc tin dyng cdn cong bd cu thi va minh xac, khong hd trg diing dia chi vd muc tieu.
bach cac tieu chi, quy trinh hd trg dl doanh nghiep (ii) Thdng tu 01/2020/TT-NHNN ngay 13/3/2020 va thi trudng ciing ndm bdt dugc. Sir hd trg tir phia ra ddi dugc ky vgng se la ca sd phap ly quan trgng ngan hang chia lam 2 phuong an. Phuong an thii de cac ngan hang thuc hien nhdm phuong an thir 2 nhdt la gdi cho vay (gdi hd h-g 250.000 ty dong ma nhilu han, bdi tran thuc ta, viec ca cau ng nhu tren cac ngan hang cam kit giai ngan va cac gdi khac ciing giup chinh cac ngan hang hudng Igi, do se lam neu cd) de hd trg thanh khodn cho cac doanh nghiep "sach" bang can ddi kinh doanh cua minh, ddng thdi
"song sdt" qua miia djch. Phuong dn thir hai Id "tan hd trg dang kl thanh khoan cho doanh nghiep trong trang"cac khoan ngcdnguy ca"xau"bdiCovid-19, thdi diem hien tai, Id thdi diam can "tdn tai" chit de doanh nghiep cd them thdi gian phuc hdi, chang khdng phai md rdng dau tu.
Ghi chu:
1. Co thi CO gid dinh cdu ngoai te tang do vin dl toi uu danh muc ciia nha dau tu; tiic la trong thai gian khung hodng ho se chay theo cau n6i Cash is King, nhung phan tich nay se khong di theo huang do de giai thich tac dong ciia Covid 19 len ty gia h6i dodi cua Vi^t Nam trong ngan h^n.
2.Tilp cdn News c6 thi sii dung dl giai thich ty gia hdi dodi bien dgng trong ngan ban. Van de cua Vi?t Nam Id neu khong can thi^p vao ty gid trong ngdn han thi mat gid d mite do cao hem d trung h?n la co the. Vi vdy cdn phdi can thi?p hoac tuyen bd can tliiep sdm tir Ngan hdng Nha nudc de tranh viec (mat gia dong tien d quy md Idn hom) ndy xdy ra trong trung han.
Tai Ii@u tham khao
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SS 276 thang 6/2020 10 kiDllteJ|||i^^
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ban hanh ngay i 3/3/2020.
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S6 276 thing 6/2020 11 kinlllf.J'llillll'il'n
