TAI CHI'NH vf MO (sg 01 (162). 2017^
Du-ong cong Laffer va ly thuyet ve m6i quan he giira thui suat voi so thu
ngan sach tu* thui cua chinh phu
Bui Dirdng Nghieu*
T 6 M T A T
Ly thuyet vi moi quan h$giua ihue sudt vd so thu tir thue cda chinh phd cht ra rdng, khi vu0 qua ngu&ng thui sudt tdi uu thi cdc muc thue sudt thdp hffn mirc hi$n hdnh se cho phep chinh phu co dugfc s6 thu tu thui nhiiu hffn. So thu tir thui cua chinh phu se bdng 0 neu thui sudt bdng 0% hodc 100% vd trong khodng tur 0% din 100% se co diim md tgi dd chinh phu co the dgt muc cue dgi vi s6 thu tir thui, do chinh Id mirc thui suat tSi uu.
• Tir khoa: du&ng cong Laffer; ly thuyit vi moi quan h^; thu ngdn sdch...
ABSTRACT
Theory of the relationship between tax rates and tax revenue of the Government shows that, under the condition of optimal tax rate excess, then the tax rates which are lower than current rate will allow the Government gain surplus tax revenue. Tax revenues will be 0 if the tax rate is 0% or 100%, and within the range from 0% to 100% there will be a point at which the Government maximizes tax revenue, this point is the optimal tax rate.
• Keywords: Laffer curve, theory of relationship, government revenue.
Ducrng cong Laffer Nam 1974, lai mgl bira tiec chieu dai o Nha TrJng, khi Irinh bay y tuong ve moi quan he giira ihue suat va so thu ngan sach ciia chfnh phii tir thue, Arthur Betz Laffer, 34 tu6i, Giang vien iruang Kinh doanh Marshall (Marshall School of Business) thugc trucmg Dai hgc Nam California (University of Southern California) da ve dd thj mgt ducmg cong de minh hga cho quan diem ciia minh ve thue suat toi uu.
Nha each himg bien va sir chac chan trong lap luan ve iiiang quan giira thug suSt va s6 thu tir thue ma thuyct trinh ciia ung da rat ihu hiit ngucri nghe
* PGS. TS, l^en tru&ng Vien Ddo
va do thi ve duong cong nay da CO mgl tieng vang v6 ciing rgng Ion, dat nen tang cho su phat trien ciia ly Ihuyet ve quan he gitfa thue suat va so ihu ngan sach ciia chinh phii. Tam anh
huang va sir noi tieng ciia no Ion den mifc khong mgt nha nghien cun ve thu6 nao tren the giai khong biel den duong cong Laffer. Duong cong Laffer da tra thanh hinh anh dai dien
DiTffng cong L a f f e r ve thue t*
tgo Quoc ti- Hpc viin Tdi chinh
Tap chi nghien ciiu Tai chinh ke toan
(jo 01 (162)-2017^ TAI CHINH V I M d
cho ly thuyet ve moi quan h6 giira thue suat va so thu tir thue ciia chfnh phd.
O muc thue suat 0% hoac 100% thi so thu tif thue bang 0. Vai thu6 suSt hien hanh la / (%), chinh phil co s6 thu tir thug la R. Neu chinh phii giam thue suai xuong con /* (%) thi so thu thue se o muc tfii uu la R* Ion han so vai R (R* > R).
Do vay, theo Laffer, d6 thj ham so ciia so thu tir thu6 ciia chfnh phil CO dang chir U ngugc.
Theo ly ihuyet nay, nguai san xuat va ngudi lieu diing se phan irng nhanh nhay vai muc thue ma chfnh phii dua ra. Khi chinh phil ban hanh cac muc thue suat khac nhau thi nguai san xuat hoac nguai lieu diing se CO fl hoac nhieu dgng luc han de lam viec va san xuat kinh doanh.
Thue suat thap tao ra kha nang ma rong Igi nhuan bien cho doanh nghiep, dieu do Ihiic day doanh nghiep lang san lugng dan den lang cung cho nen kinh Ic
Kha
Thue suat thap cung "ang tao ca hgi giam gia ban ^^
hang hoa. dich vu. Dieu db lluic day nguai lieu diing mua sam nhieu han dan den tang cau cho nen kinh le.
Cung tang, cau lang deu ma rong co sa thue non kcl qua la long thu ngjn -lach tu thue sc fang hon iruoc, C'hi it cung bii Ja[-> du duac sd hul thu liiK- liL'p irong ngan han d>i giam thuc suai
Dudng cong Laffer la d6 thi ng cua cac nu6c dang phit thS hi^n mdi quan h? huu ca triSn. Vay ng \k cin thiet dl giua thu^ sudt (%) v^ so thu tit tao them ngu6n lire cho tang thu6 cua chinh phii. Vai each trucmg nhung mgt dat nudc quan sat cac di6u chinh n€n vay ng qua nhilu thi c6 tot cho kinh te tir phia cung, ly thuyet
nay da lam cho goc nhin ve nen kinh te mgt each toan dien hem, sinh dgng han giiip nhimg nguai ra quylt djnh co nhirng luan cif, minh chung xac dang hon. Day la mgt loai ly thuyit mai, md dau cho trudng phai
"trgng cung" doi lap vdi trudng phai "trgng cau" {sic dturtg cdc chinh sdch tien te, vi du nhir dieu chinh lai sudt).
Duffng cong Laffer ng Dudng cong Laffer ng la mgt thuat ngif mdi xu§t hien gan day. Dudng cong Laffer ng sir dung hinh anh do thj dudng cong Laffer nguyen gdc de mo phong mdt ly ihuyel nghien ciru ve ng - Ly thuyet "debt overhang'".
Nam 1989, Jeffrey Sachs da phai trien ly Ihuyel "debt overhang" khi nghien ciru ve
tang trudng kinh te hay khdng?
Ly thuyet "debt overhang" chi ra r3ng ton tai mgt gidi han ng ma trudc gidi han do, moi mgt khoan vay tang them sg co nhiing tac dgng tich cue din nln kinh te nhung sau gidi han do, moi khoan vay tang them lai tao them nhirng tac dgng tieu cue ddi vdi kha nang tra ng ciing nhu tang trudng kinh te. Jeffrey Sachs da van dung dudng cong Laffer de minh hga y tudng nay. Viec dd thj hda quan he giifa sd du ng va kha nang tra ng cua mdt qudc gia la mgt y tudng kha hay cho phep de dang nhan thay rang mgt dat nudc vay ng qua nhieu se phai chju ganh nang vc dich vu ng qua cao. Mirc ng qua cao thi kha nang ira ng se giam.
Ciing nam do (1989), Krug- man (giai Nobel kinh te nam
2008) da Ihao luan ve kha nang thiet lap 16 trinh giam ng tren ca sd thj srhang irudng va dua ra mot khung khd chinh ihifc cho ly thuyei cua Jeffrey Sachs.
Krugman chi ro rang khi mdt d§t nudc roi vao tinh trang na qua cao la khi cac nghTa vu ng da vugl qua so tign CO the chi tra. liic do. cac nghia vu ng
Tap chi nghien ci^u Tai chinh ke toan <(9
TAI CHINH VT MO (S^OI (162)-2017) phai thanh toan gidng nhu mgt
thir thue suat bien cao. Neu dilu do cir tiep diln thi da ph5n lgi nhuan mdi san sinh trong nudc se chay vao tui cac chii ng thay vi dugc chia se giira chinh phti (thue) va cac chu doanh nghiep (Igi tuc). Chinh dieu nay lam cac nha dau tu lo ngai va khdng mudn tiep tuc bo tien ra dau tu.
Dau tu giam se khdng thuc day tang trudng kinh te. Ng qua cao se CO nguy ca lam giam tang trudng kinh ll.
Tren dd thj, khi sir dung gia trj iruc tung la "tang trudng kinh te" thay cho "kha nang tra ng" thi se thay dugc su lac dgng ciia nhifng mirc vay ng nhat djnh (nhat la ng nudc ngoai) den tang trudng kinh le.
Sau nay, cac nghien ciiu cua Slijn Claessens (1990, WB), Catherine Pattillo, Poirson va Luca Ricci (2002, IMF), Pierre-Richard Agenor (Uni- versity of Manchester, UK) va Joshua Aizenman (University of California. USA) nam 2005 va Elena S. Bachvarova (2008, Duke Universily) deu c6 cac ket qua thuc chirng khang dinh cac luan diem tren day.
Dudng cong Laffer ng phan anh mdi quan he giCfa ng, nhSt la na nudc ngoai, vdi kha nang tra ng va tang trudng kinh 16 cua mot qudc gia, dd la san pham phai sinh ciia dudng cong Laffer nguyen thiiy phan anh quan he giua sd thu tir thui cua chinh phit va thuii suSt. Do
\ a \ . ra[ cd [lie Ironi; thdi gian loi phni them chu "ihuC'" \ao iluial ngu "dudng cong I affer"
h;tn dau dc cd thein mdt cai
ten "dudng cong Laffer thue"
nham phan bi^t vdi "dudng cong Laffer ng".
Kit luan
Laffer la mdt trong s6 it nhixng nha kinh te hgc gioi ca trong ly thuyet cung nhu thuc tien va co su anh hudng rat ldn den ddi sdng kinh te va cac doanh nghiep My. Ly thuyet ciia dng dugc cac thanh vien Dang Cgng hda (My) xac dinh la Idi thoat duy nh§t de nen kinh te My thoat khdi khiing hoang kinh te chu khdng phai viec bam qua nhieu tien CUTJ cac ngan hang va tap doan Idn.
Tren thuc te, khdng mgt dang vien Dang Cgng hoa nao tan thanh ke hoach giai ciiru nen kinh te My sau khiing hoang 2008 vdi gdi "giai ciru 825 ly USD" cho dil no da dugc Ha vien My thong qua ngay 29/1/2009. Hg cho rSng, dl giai cuu nln kinh te My, nen cat giam them thue suat va gia trj gdi giai ciru chi nen d muc 400 ty USD ma thdi.
Nhtfng ddng gdp ciia Laffer cho kinh le hgc va chfnh sach cdng la rat dang chii y. Trudng phai kinh te trgng cung ra ddi da dem lai su da dang nhilu mau sac cho kinh le hgc hien dai va ddng gdp mgl gdc nhin dac biet tir phfa cung kbi nghien cifu cac van de kinh te. Nhifng de xuat chinh phu dilu till nln kinh le bang cac s^c thui ben canh cac dieu chinh bSng chinh sach ticn te, lai suat da cho thgy nhung lac ddng khdng nhd ciia
"ban lay hifu hinh" trong dieu liel vTmd nln kinh l£.
Ly thuyit ve moi quan h?
giu-a thui suSt vdi s6 thu ngan sach ciia chinh phii cd sir liin kit logic vdi luan diem ciia Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Bg trudng Tai chinh Ph^p the ky XVII, v l nghe thu^t danh thui khi Colbert cho rang "ngh?
thuat danh thue dugc vi nhu vi?c nhd long ngong, lam the n^o dl nhd dugc nhieu long nhat ma mat it siic luc nhat".
Ndi each khac, lam the nao cd dugc sd thu tir thue ldn nhat vdi cac chi phi kinh te va chfnh tri nhd nhat.
Cho dil rang viec xac djnh chinh xac mirc thue tdi uu ciia nen kinh te ludn la mgt cau hdi ldn cho bat ky nha kinh te hoac bat ky ngudi hoach djnh chfnh sach nao nhung do lai chinh la sir hap dan ciia trudng phai trgng cung My. Chiing tdi cho rang cac miic thue suat thap se md rgng ca sd thue, tir dd, cho phep chinh phii tang thu ngan sach lir thue trong khi phai chju ft xung dot han.
Tai lieu tham khao:
Laffer, 2004. The Laffer Curve past, present, and future. American Heritage. Hoa Ky
Laffer, Stephen Moore, Peter Tanous,2009 The End of Prosper- ity How Higher Taxes Will Doom the Economy If We Let It Happen, Threshold Editions
Nguyen Cdng Nghiep, Bin Duong Nghieu, Nguyin Hodn^
Ha. 2014 100 Nha kinh ti ndi tieng. Nhd xudt bdn Chinh tri Qudc gia - Sir Thdt. Hd Noi
Tap chi nghien ciifu Tai chinh ke toan