Thyc trang quan ly rui ro trong nganh xay dyng Viet Nam
Ngay nhan bai: 20/8/2014 Ngay suS bai: 5/9/2014 Ngay chap nhan iJang: 10/9/2014
Le Anh Dung
T O M
TAT:
Nganh xay diing vdi dac thii chiu nhieu tac dong va rui ro tU cac yeu to khach quan: thdi tiet, moi trUdng, bien dong gia ca...
cung nhu cac yeu to chu quan: tinh toan ke hoach chUa chinh xae, chu dau ti(, nha thau khong du nang lilc... Chinh vi cac yeu to rui ro luon tiem an ca trong lan ngoai dil an nSn phan Idn cac di( an dau tu xay dUng ccJ ban tai Viet Nam deu bi cham tien dp, dan d^n thSt thoat, lang phi, hieu qua dSu tii thap... Chinh vi vay, cdng tac quan ly rui ro trong nganh xay diing la vd ciing quan trong va cap thiet. Tuy nhien, cong tac quan ly rui ro hien nay chila nhan diidc sU quan tam dung raiic. Bai viet sau se cung cap cai nhin tong quan ve thiic trang cong tac quan ly rui ro trong nganh xay diing Viet Nam hien nay.
ABSTRACT
Construction field has many special condition. It has influented from many risks such as weather, environment, prices... or subjective risks: ability of ower and constructors.... one project has many potential risks not only outside but also inside the project. So, the construction project has not finished correctly the schedule, it made waste and low effect for the project. So that, risk management is very important and immediately. But the attention for it is not enough. This article will show a general view about the situation of risk management in construction field in Vietnam nowadays.
Le Anh Dung
Trildng dai hpe Ki^n true Ha Ndi
1 . Gidi thieu chung
Qu^n ly rui ro van la ktiai niem tifOng doi mdi vdi cac cJoanh nghiep xay diTng Viet Nam. chinh vl vay cac doanh nghiep, to chu'c van chUa co hinh dung rd rang ve tfnh chat v^ Iam quan trong cua khai ni&m nay n^n ctiUacosUquan tam thich dang cho linh vUcnay.ThUcte chira rSng, cac du an xay d i i n g luon phai d i i o n g dau vdi nhQng rii\ ro tiem an ca trong lan ngoai d u an Vk chi'nh viec kiem soat khong tot cac rui ro nay dan den mpt loat cac he luy khong dang co cho cac d i i an: cham tien do, tang chi phi, that thoat, lang phi. . trong boi canh hien nay, khi nen kmh te van dang phai dUOng dau vdi nhieu kho khan, thach thCfc va bien d6ng,de dam bao hieu qua dau tU cua cac dU an thi cong tac quSn ly rui ro cho cac dif an xay dung lai eang t r d nen cap thiet hon bao g i d het
2. T^ng quan ve qudn ly rui ro trang xay diing 2.1 Cac khai niem ve quan ly rui ro
Ndi den rui ro la de cap den nhOng sil kien khong may man, bat n g d da x^yra gay nhiing thiet hai ve Idi ich cua con ngUdi gom: siic khde, t i n h than, tai skn . Nhu vay, rcii ro ia sti bien ddng tiem an d nhu'ng ket quk Riii ro hien dien trong hau het hoat dong cua con ngudi. Khi cd rui ro ngudi ta khong the d a doan du'oc c h i n h x a c k e t q u a . s u hien dien cilia rCii r o g a y r a s i i b a t d i n h . Nhu vay, SLf bat dinh la su nghi ngd v^khei nang cua chiing ta trong tien doan ket quk nd xuat hien khi mot ca nhan nhan thdc dUOc nguy co ve rui ro. Nguy ca rui ro cd the phat sinh bat c d khi nao va k h S n g t h e d i i d o a n triidcdu'pc Va mot khi x^yra thi hau qua thu'dng thay la mang lat nhieu t o n that cho ngUdi ganh chiu rui ro db.Hien nay cd rat nhieu quan diem ve quSn ly rilii ro, cd the ke den mot vai quan diem nhu-
-Theo Frank Knight, rui ro la sa bat traced the do l u d n g d u o c . - Theo Irving Pfeffer, rCii ro la nhCmg sU ngau nhi§n co the do ladng dircie bang xae suat.
-Theo Maritu Hurt McCarty, rCii ro la tinh trang trong do c^c bien cd xky ra trong tUOng lai co the xae djnh d a o c .
Tren co sd cac khai mem ke tren, co the dua ra mot khai niem ve nil ro n h u sau: Rui ro la t d n g hop nhCIng sir kien ngau nhien tac ddng len sii vat, hien t u a n g lam thay doi ket q u i cCiasU vat, hien t u a n g ( t h a d n g theo chieu h u d n g bat loi) va nhdng tac ddng ngau nhien d 6 ed the do ladng duoc bSng xae suat
Ckc dac trUng ciia rui ro:
- Rui ro la sii kien ngau nhien ( b ^ t ngd).
- RCii ro la sU ed gay t d n that.
- Rui ro la sif kien ngoai mong mudn.
2.2. Phcin loai rOi ro
Tiiy theo tieu chi danh gia ma ngadi ta cd the xae dinh va phan chia thanh nhieu loai rui ro. Tuy nhien, cd the xae djnh va phan loai rui ro theo cac c i e h sau day:
a . T h e o t m h chat khach quan cOarOiro:
. Rui ro thuan tiiy: la loai rtii ro t6n tai khi co nguy co t d n t h a t nhOng
09.2014 SDillKdBi]! 179
khong co co hoi kiem ldi, do la loai rui ro xay ra li#n quan tdi viec tai san bi pha huy. Khi cd rCii ro t h u ^ n tuy xSy ra thi hoac la c6 mat mkt tdn that nhieu. hoac la cd mat mat ton that it va khi rui ro thuan t i i y khong xay ra thi khong co mat mat t d n that. Hau het eac rui ro chiing ta gap p h i i trong cuoc sdng va thUdng de lai nhdng thi&t hai Idn ve cua cki vat chat va co khi ck tinh mang con ngadi deu l i riii rothuSn tiiy. Thudc loai riii ro n i y cd cac loai thien tai, dich benh: h6a hoan, han h i n , dpng dSt, song than, djch b e n h . . .
. Rui do suy tinh (rui ro suy doan); la rui ro ton tai khi cd mot nguy cO ton that song song vdi mpt CO h6i kiem ldi. D d la loai nil ro lien quan den quyet dinh lua chpn ciia con ngUtJi.
Thuoc loai nay la cac iiii ro khi dau t i i vao san xuat kmh doanh tren thj trUdng.
b.Theo h i u q u i de lai cho c i c hoat dpng cua con ngUdi:
• RCII ro so ddng: la c i c rCii ro gky ra cac t d n th5t khach quan theo nguon goc rCii ro va theo k^t quk gay ra. NhCrng tdn that nay khong phk\
do ca nhan gay ra va hau quk ciia no i n h hUdng d^n sd dong con ngudi trong xa hpl. Thupc loai n i y c6 cac rui ro do chien tranh, lam phat, that nghiep, dong dat, ICi lut,...
. Rui ro bp phan: la c i c rCii ro xuat phat tir c i c bien co chCi quan cua tUng c i nhan xet theo c i ve nguyen nhan va hau qua. Tic ddng cCia loai rui ro nay anh hudng tdi m d t sd it ngUdi, khong anh hUdng tdi toan xa hdi. Thudc loai nay la c i c rui ro nhU tai nan giao thdng, tai nan lao d6ng, hda hoan,...
c. Theo ngudn goc p h i t sinh cac rCii ro:
. RCII ro do cac hien tUpng tU nhien- (Day l i ngudn gdc co b i n dan den c i c rui ro thuan t i i y va de lai hau qua nghiem trpng doi vdi con ngUdi). Vlec n h i n biet loai rui ro nay tuang ddi don g i i n nhung c i c h d i n h gia k h i nang xay ra, cUdng d o cung n h u mCtc d o gay thiet hai lai phdc tap k h d doan trade.
- RUI ro d o moi trUdng vat chat. Cic rui ro x u i t p h i t tif ngudn n i y la tUOng ddi nhieu nhU h6a hoan d o bat can, c h i y nd,...
• Rui ro d o c i c moi trudng phi vat chat khac:
Ngudn rui ro r i t quan trong va lam phat smh rat nhieu rCii ro trong cuoc song chinh la mdi trudng phi vat chat, hay ndi cu the hon d o la moi trudng kinh te. x i hoi, chinh tri, phap luat hoac mdi trudng hoat dpng ciia c i c t d chdc,.. .OUdng ldi, chinh sach cCia mdi ngudi lanh dao cua qudc gia cd the i n h hUdng nghiem trpng den hoat dpng, kinh doanh cCia cac to chUc kmh te (ban h i n h cac chinh sich kinh te, ban h i n h c i c quy djnh ve thue, c i t g i i m hoac xda bd c i c nganh nghe,.. ) Q u i trinh hoat ddng cua c i c t d chUc cd the gap nhieu riii ro v i bat dinh: vlec thay ddi ty gia hdi d o i i , ty le lai s u i t tin dung, quan hS cung cau tren t h i trudng, g i i c i thj trudng dien bien bat d n . .deu cd the dem lai nhieu rui roe ho c i c t d chdc s i n x u i t kinh doanh Cd rat nhieu rui ro xuat phat tif mdi trUdng phi v i t
chat nay va cac rui ro c d ndi tiep nhau dien ra, rCii ro n i y duoc b i t nguon tif rCii ro khac, rui ro b i t ngudn t d moi trUdng chinh tri dan d^n cac rui ro ve mat kinh te hay xa hdi ( c h i n g han rui ro do mdi trUdng chinh tri khong on dinh dan den rill ro ve mat kmh te v i sau dd dan den rCii d o ve mat xa hdi). Ee n h i n biet c i c ngudn riii ro^nay can cd sii nghien cCfu p h i n tich ti mi, chi tiet va than trong. Mat k h i c , viec d i n h g i i k h i nang va mdc dd xay ra cCia cac rui ro xuat phat tir ngudn rill ro phi vat chat cung het sdc kho k h i n vdi dp chfnh x i c khac nhau, no phu thudc rat nhieu v i o t r i n h d o c C i a n g U d i d a n h g i i .
d.Theo kha nang khdng che cua con ngUdi:
. Cd the chia ra rCii ro cd the khdng c h ^ va rui ro khdng the khdng che. M o t sd loai rui ro khi xay ra, con ngUdi khdng the chdng d d ndi.
Thudc loai nay cd cac rui ro d o thien tai, djch hpa...Tuy nhien, da sd c i c rui ro con ngUdi c6 the chdng d d hoac cd nhCmg bien phap nham han che dUpc thiet hai neu cd nhdng nghiSn ciiu, d u doan duoc k h i nang va m d c d d x i y ra.
Cdn cd rat nhieu each phan loai k h i c nhau nUa ma ta khdng the de cap het dUOc.
• M O I c i nhan cd kha nang chap nhan rui ro k h i c nhau. M d t sd ngUdi cd k h i nang chap nhan rui ro cao, hp khong tien h i n h m d t bien phap phdng ngUa nao ca vl hp tin rang cd it rui ro xay ca vdi ho va hp cd the chap nhan dUoc.
Mot so ngUdi k h i c lai it cd kha nang chap nhan rui ro hdn v i hp cd gang tien hanh moi bien phap phdng ngda riii ro trong cuoc sdng. Tuy nhien mpi ngUdi deu so rOi ro. Vi t h e viec chung ta cd gkng nhan biet duoc riii ro cd the xay ra v i d i n h gia dUOC mUc d d tram trong cCia rui ro la viee l i m het sdc quan trong, het sdc c^n thiet de t d n tai va p h i t trien, nhUng nd khdng phai la viec l i m dOn gian.
3. C^c budc trong qua trinh qu4n ly rdi ro 3.1. Xacdinh rOiro
X i c dinh rui ro bao g d m viee x i c djnh loai rui ro nao se i n h hUdng den dU i n va x i c d m h dac diem ciia tifng loai riii ro. Xae dmh rCii ro khdng phai la mot viec l i m nhat t h d i X i c djnh rui ro dUoc xem nhU mdt cdng viec cd ban thudng xuyen trong sudt qua trinh thUc hien d u i n .
Xic dinh rCii ro phai hUdng den ca rui ro ben ngoai va rui ro ben trong R u i r o b e n t r o n g l a c a c cdng vigc ma cac t h i n h vien dU i n cd t h e kiem soat hoac chi phdi dUOc, v i du nhU giao viec cho nhan vien va dU kien kinh phi. Rui ro ben n g o i i la sii bien dpng cua thi trUdng hoac nhdng thay ddi ve chinh sach.
RCII ro thUdng chi bao g d m k h i nang chong d d nhUng mat mat. Tuy nhien, trong khudn kho ciia q u i n ly d u i n , x i c dinh rCii ro lien quan den cac cO hdi (cic ket qua k h i quan) cung n h u c a c nguy co (cic ket qua khdng kha quan)
Xae dinh rui ro ed the duoc tien hanh song song vdi viec xae dmh nguyen nhan-hau qua.
(Cai gi cd the xay ra va cai gi xay ra sau no) hoac
t h e o kieu h i u q u i - n g u y e n nhan (ket q u i nio can tranh hoac tan t h a n h va k^t q u i n i o c6 the x i y ra).
3.2,Ddnh gia tac dong cua rOi ro Rui ro ludn m a n g den thiet hai cho doi tUdng chiu t i c d d n g cCia rui ro. Theo i n h hiTfing cOa tac d d n g t h i cd t h e p h ^ n chia lam t i c fl^ng true tiep hoac gian t i ^ p .
a. Thiet hai true tiep
• Thiet hai trUc t i ^ p l i nhCmg thiet hai vit chat d o nguyen n h i n true t i ^ p nao dd giy nln.
Vi d u , d o hda hoan, d d n g dat, chi^n tranh, thiSh t a i . . .
b.Thi^t hai g i i n t i ^ p
• Thiet hai gian t i e p la nhOng thiet hai do hoatddngcCiabenthdbagayn&n.Vidu,docac thay ddi ve cdng nghe, gia c i . . .
Tuy theo t h e loai rCii ro, mCfc dd rui ro, 06\
t u o n g chju rui r o . . . ma n g u d i t a s e d i n h g i i tac ddng cCia rui ro k h i c nhau v i t U d d cung sec6 c i c c i c h phan Ung vdi rui ro k h i c nhau.
3.3. P h i n ihig viA rOi ro M d i ea n h a n , t d chiic k h i e nhau se c6 cac each p h i n dng vdi rCii ro theo c i c each khic nhau.Tuy nhien, tUu chung lai deu can phii di/a ra ke hoach de p h i n dng lai vdi rui ro. Cu the n h u sau:
• Lam ro c i c rui ro: ta m p t q u i trinh nhcin ra dupe tat c i cae rCn ro cd nguy co x i y ra trong du i n ma ed t h e d d i p h d va cd t h e diing ly ledlgili thich dupe. Bat eU m d t rui ro t i ^ m an n i o khong phai luc nao cung l i m d i de dpa Idn tdi siithinh edng cCia m o t dU an m i cung chSng l i mot van de ma t o d u i n k h d n g xem x ^ tdi.
• De thay duoc tat c i cac nguy co rOl ro trong d i i an, ngudi ta yeu du c i c n h i chl d?o d u an cung cap danh cu the v^ c i c van He co lien quan t d i pham vl chiu t r i c h nhiem ciia neng tdng ngudi. Rdi ho xem lai tat ca cic danli sach de k h i n g d m h rang van de rCii ro dang thUe sU gay nguy hiem t d i sU thanh cdng eOa d u an v i dang duOc t d d u i n chi dao ddi ph6, Phuang p h i p nay dUOc thUc hiSn bang cich sil d u n g "cd eau phan chia cong viec" nhu l i mfit CO eau cCia van de d e t i m ra cac hi^m hoa cu the.
• D i n h gia mUcddcCia rCii ro:la motphuong phap de nhan ra kha nang g i d han i n h hJcing ddi vdi m p i van de rCil ro. K h i na.-"q gidi han chi ra mUc d d rat cd kha nang x i y ra ma rui ro se duoc cu t h e hda v i dUoe bieu thi bang cic thii5t ngO cd lien q u a n v i cd djnh lUOng.
• A n h h u d n g eCia n i l ro la each d i n h gii ve mdc dp d u an se chiu rui ro l i bao nhieu nfu n h u van de rCii ro dUde cu the hda. Cic anh h u d n g dUOe dien g i i i trong mdi quan hi v^dii p h i ciing vdi/hoac ke hoach va/hoac cd hieu qua thuc hien cd tinh chuyen m d n .
• De danh gia cac van de riii ro, cich trilc tiep nhat la p h i i d u doan dupe kha ning " i i n h h u d n g ddi vdi moi van d ^ rin ro da fluac x i c dinh bkng each sCr dung k j t h u i t hoac bSng each phan xet va kinh nghiem giai quyet. Thu
80|9K1i1'*!V^^ 09.2014
thap c i c dCr li&u cd li#n quan v i c i c p h i n tich c a b i n e d t h i c u n g cap h u d n g " phan xet d u n g nhat nay" cho viec d a n h gia rui ro. Nha quan ly d u an hay nha ddi p h d rCii ro se p h i n tich nguy CO rCii ro cua d u i n va cdng n h i n k h i nang i n h hudng cua m d i rui ro.
• LUa chon van de rCii ro: la m d t bien phap xae djnh c i c h thfch h p p de doi p h d vdi eac rCil ro ehinh cOa d u an ma cae ma cae rCii ro n i y thuc sUgay nguy hiem t d i sU t h i n h cdngeCiadUan, nd de dUdc t d d u i n g i i i quyet va xet cho d e n ciing d d la p h u d n g s i c h cd t h e g i i i q u y l t rui ro.
• Viec n i y cd t h e dan den m o t loai c i c rCii ro cd t h ^ duac g i i i q u y e t b i n g phUdng phap ddi p h d vdi riii ro cCia d u a n . M d t loai rui ro se dUoe sda ddi trong q u i t r i n h thue hien vl trong lUc m p t sd loai rCii ro bien m^t t h i m d t sd loai rCil ro khac xuat hien.
- Odi vdi m d t sd rui ro, nha q u i n ly d u i n se gap k h d k h i n trong vi4e dUa ra dUdng I6i chl dao chdng lai c h u n g . Theo le t h u d n g t h i t d d u i n se phai dUa ra d u p c danh gia chung ve tat c i nhdng rui ro ban dau rdi liia ra m d t sd tap hap rCu ro thich h p p 6i ddi p h d .
• Phuang phap tranh rOi ro: la m d t qua trinh cSn t h i l t de l i m giam b d t di k h i nang xuat hien ddi vdi c i c rOi ro da lua chpn de gial quyet.
NgUdi ta c u n g phai xet xem hieu q u i sinh ldi cho h u d n g tranh rui ro s i p t d i .
- Trong vi^c xae d i n h duoc p h u o n g p h i p nay, k h d n g m d t giai p h i p cu t h e nao dUpc dUa ra ma nd vucit qua each b d t r i hdp ly, quyet d m h x d l y e d logic.
•Viec xae d j n h ke hoach doi p h d bat trac xay ra va c i c dieu kien tien hanh ket thuc- ke hoach ddi p h d bat t r i e xay ra cho ta thay nhdng cdng viec ma phai lam d e giam thieu cac anh hudng gay ra d o rui ro ma nd da nay smh nhU m d t van de cua d u an. Them vao d d , ngudi ta p h i i xae d m h c^e dieu kien bat d a u / hoan t h a n h m d t hoat d d n g .
• C i c nha chl dao m d i m d t ehuyen m d n xae dmh hp phai t h u c hien c i c hanh d d n g ddi p h d nao ddi vdi nhCmg b a t t r S c x a y r a m a h o p h i i c d trach nhiem gi^i quyet
• Bat ky m d t giai phap cu t h e nao dUdc de xuat ma n d lai v u o t ra ngoai viec tien hanh binh t h u d n g , c i c h b d t r i h o p \y vk quyet dinh x d ly vdi muc dich nhan ra phUdng phap g i i i quyet.
Oieu n i y dan d e n ke hoach d d i p h d vdi moi rui ro bat n g d dupe chpn nhSm giai quyet rCii ro rdi xae d j n h dieu kien nao phai g i d de bSt dau tien hanh va ket thiic ke hoach ddi p h d vdi riii ro bat ngd.
• Tim ra d a u vet rCii ro va bao each thdc x i c dinh rui ro: la m d t p h u o n g phap trong d d hien trang rCii ro phai dupe giam sat de x i c dinh lieu p h u o n g phap t r i n h rCii ro da dupe xae dinh cdn p h i i h o p cho viec giai quyet cac rui ro dudc x d
• BSng b i f n phap nay ngUdl ta t i m ra bi&n phap t r o n g d o cd su n d liic dieu chinh nay phai
duoc hoan thanh va cac tinh trang rCii ro p h i i dupc t h u t h i p , b i o c i o , va c i n nhac. Cac rui ro chinh p h i i dUpc bao cao trong b i o cao phan tich van de rCii ro.Tat c i cac nha q u i n 1^ chuyen mdn x i c d m h rd dae diem, t i n h chat each t i m ra t i f n g n i l ro n h u the nao. Nha q u i n ly d u an se chi rd tat ca c i c tinh trang riil ro trong b i n b i o cao da duoc t h u thap, p h d bien. Cu the, viec theo ddi xd \y rui ro se dupe hoan thanh t h d n g qua CO sd d d lieu x d ly rCii ro cd chda dU lieu thich dang vdi mdt van de rCii ro.
• T i m g phan cua du' lieu CP ban se duac cap n h i t t h u d n g ky khi b i n bao c i o ve rCii ro dUoc dUara. Dieu nay sedan den viec d m h rd mdi rCii ro se dupe t i m ra nhU the nao eac hoat d d n g ddi p h d vdi rui ro se ducsc hd trp ra lam sao va dUoc xet duyet d cap d u i n n i o
• To chdc q u i n ly riii ro va xae dinh t r i c h nhiem: l i m d t qua trinh x i c dinh viec t d chdc g i i i q u y l t rCii ro va chju t r i c h nhiem doi vdi vi§c g i i i quyet rui ro. Nhiem vu cua nha q u i n ly d i i an l i p h i i chi ra dUpc cac t d chdc g i i i quyet nil ro va trach nhiem lien ddi ddi vdi tdng ca nhkn.
Dieu nay se dan den viec lap ra bieu d d va bang ve chju traeh nhiem lien ddi.
• Q u i n ly riii ro v i chuan bj d i i lieu vigc cung cap chinh la viec lap ke hoach ddi p h d vdi n h i i n g rui ro la m d t ke hoach dUoc chdng m m h b i n g t i l lieu ma nd hd tro tat c i cac t h i n h vien trong t d d y an cd nhan thdc chung rd rang ve each rui ro duac g i i i quyet dUa v i o dU i n cung n h u vai trd cCia hp trong k l hoaeh nay, vf du n h u l i trach nhiem cu the cua ho.
• DCr lieu CO sd se dupc chuan bj t h u thap va bao cao t i t cadU lieu ddi phd rui ro. Nha q u i n ly d U i n s e c h i u t r i c h nhiem v l ndi d u n g ke hoaeh ddi p h d rui ro cd cP sd ly luan. Phuong phap n i y se dua r a s u b d tri v l c i c d i i lieu ddi p h d vdi eae rCii ro.
4. ThUc trang qu^n ly rui ro trong xay dung Viet Nam dang la mdt trong nhdng qudc gia cd nen kmh te tang t r u d n g nhanh nhkt trong khu vUc, vdi mUc tang trUdng xep t h d tU sau Trung Qudc, Singapore va Hdng Kong. Thi t r u d n g bat d d n g s i n v i xay dUng nhieu tiem n i n g dang la m d t trong n h i i n g ly d o k h i l n cac nha dau t u hudng tdi. N h i l u doanh nghiep, dac biet l i c i c doanh nghiep trong nUdc, chua y thdc dupe viec phan tfch hieu qua dU an dau t u cho muc dich q u i n ly, ho chi lap b i o c i o tai chfnh k h i t h i va cd t i l n hanh phan tich hieu q u i dau tU cho myc dich xin dU i n . Tuy nhien, p h i n tich n i y tren thuc te chi dUa vao eae g i i dinh ban dau tai thdi diem l i p d u an trong m d hinh d u b i o d d n g tien v i t i n h toan m d t sd chi sd c d ban NPV, IRR, BEP ( g i i t n hien tai rdng, ty suat hoan vdn ndi bd, thdi d i l m hoan vdn) cho quyet d m h dau tU. Vi t h e hieu qua thue te khi trien khaiThi edng xay d u n g eae d u i n kha khae biet vdi bao c i o k h i thi, bao c i o cho ngan hang v i bao cao phan tfch dUan ndi b p cho mue dich Quan ly va ra quyet dinh (neu cd).
RCII ro ma eac doanh nghiep cd t h i gap p h i i tren thUc te cd the khac xa vdi gia d m h ban dau (vi n h u sU thay ddi cua mdi trUdng kmh te, chinh sach, su thay ddi nhan djnh cCia khach hang...). Vi the, doanh nghiep (DN) t h u d n g bj dpng trong viec dua ra c i c k l hoaeh dng p h d kjp thdi ddi vdi cac bien ddng trong hoat d d n g kinh doanh Ben eanh dd cung chua de cao viec lap va theo ddi k l hoach tai chinh khi trien khai t h u e t l . V i e c t h a y d d i , c h l n h sda nhdng ke hoach de ra cung rat han che, thieu nhdng t h d n g sd dUa vao theo ddi, t h i l u su phdi hap giUa c i c phdng ban, thieu su g i n k i t va can doi giOra k l hoach tai chinh t d n g the cua doanh nghiep vdi cac cdng trinh trong m d t m d t d y an, chUa cd ke hoach d i n h g i i dinh k^, khdng giam s a t v i f c thuc hien va cap nhat...
Theo ket qua k h i o s i t ciia Ernst & Young ddi vdi c i c t d chdc da that bai trong cae d u an dau t u bat ddng san (BOS) dcac nudc dang phat trien bao g d m ca khu vyc chau A, ed t d i 73%
chCi DN BDS thda nhkn, hoat d d n g kinh doanh cOa minh dang gap khd k h i n lien quan d e n d i n h gia rui ro va ky vong loi nhuan cCia cac d u i n Hon 50% cae nha Q u i n ly cao cap quan ngai rSng, hieu qua kinh doanh cua t o i n DN bi sut g i i m bdi m d t sd dU i n Idn. Nguyen nhan la do mdi d u an thudng keo dai it nhat 3 - 5 nam, trong thdi gian dd, ludng tien bd ra Idn h a n rat nhieu so vdi tien t h u v i o Vdi t^ le t h a n h cdng trong viee t n l n khai cac d y a n SOS t h i 50% d y an vUOt q u i ngan s i c h ban dau, 58% dU an bl cham t i l n do, 42% d u an cd vSn de ve chat lupng sau khi hoan thanh. NhOng con sd nay tren thUe t l d Viet Nam cd t h i eao hdn trong giai doan hien nay.
Theo d i n h g i i cCia c i c ehuyen gia, nam 2011, t h i t r u d n g bat d d n g s i n Viet Nam da t r i i qua m d t dot suy t h o i i keo dai k h i l n cho ea doanh nghiep cung nhU nha dau tU trong linh vUc n i y gap khdng it khd khan.Thi t r u d n g d d n g bang, g i i bat d d n g san giam sau va cd dau hieu cham d i y ; nhieu m i n g thi t r u d n g t u t dde kha sau, tham chi xuat hien m d t sd dot b i n thao.
Mdt trong nhOng nguyen nhan la do cac doanh nghiep da dau t u q u i nhieu d y i n ciing m p t luc, nham vao c i c thi trUdng m i khdng d u n g vdi nhu cau thiet thuc hien nay
Nganh xay d y n g d d n g g d p 9% t o n g t h u n h i p qudc ndi, vdi gan 1.500 d y an dUpc cap phep, dat tdng gia t n 181^ USD. Theo Udc t i n h , tang trUdng nganh xay dUng dat t r u n g binh 7%
giai doan 2006 - 2007. X i y dUng la m d t linh vUe phdc tap, ehi p h i cao v i nhieu rCii ro hinh t h i n h d o n h i i n g yeu cau phap ly, cac van d l lien q u a n t p i tai san, dat quy hoaeh, cap phep, t u y I n d u n g l a o d o n g , k h i n i n g thuc hien d u an, mdi t r u d n g Q u i n ly dieu h i n h , hoach dinh cua Nha nudcva""
t i n h an toan t r o n g xay d u n g . RCii ro p h i p ly va hop d d n g Cae hdp d d n g xay d u n g rat can dupe Od ly hieu qua. Theo do, m d t d u an x i y d u n g h
di kem vdi c i c hop ddng va quy dinh, dieu I f bat budc can dUoc Quan ly rieng le, chat che va phdi hpp trong mdt tdng the. Hop ddng x i y dung la mdt cdng cu p h i p ly' q u y l t djnh cac mdi quan he, q u y I n va nghTa vu cung nhu dUa ra c i c y l u t d rui ro cho cac ben lien quan.
Theo cac chuyen gia, xay dUng la mot nganh chUa dung nhieu yeu t d rin ro nhat nen viee hieu b i l t de phdng tranh v i ddi mat vdi nd ia d i l u toi quan trong, nham t i l t kiem chi phf.
g i i m thieu x d ly c i c traeh nhifem phap ly khdng can t h i e t
Bio c i o cCia N g i n hang T h i gidi [WB) nam 2008 da dUa ra nhflng thdng tin ly" thii, e i p nhat, lien quan tdi nhu'ng van de phap ly trong xay dung tai Viet Nam, khang djnh rang, yeu t d quan trong nhat trong Quan ly rui ro hop ddng va phap ly van phai la bien phap "phdng t r i n h " Mdt loat cac d u i n xay d U n g d V i e t Nam g i n d i y , da dupc ghi nhan la lang phi. l i m that t h o i t . tham nhung trong c i qua trinh dau t U v i thiic hien d u an, lam tang thiet hai cho ngan sich qudc gia trong nganh x i y dUng la 15% so vdi tong vdn dau tU,
Ngoai ra, viec "phdng t r i n h " cung cdn dupe hieu d pham vi hep han, dd la pham vi hen quan trUc tiep den c i c dieu k h o i n , quy djnh, hoat ddng trong n g i n h xay dung ma co quan quan trpng nhat l i Bd Xay dung. Theo khao sat, han 40% c i c hoat ddng xay dung d Viet Nam VI pham c i c dieu l u i t t h i hanh. NhUng vi pham nay da lam tang them chi phf dU i n , chi phf xa hdi song song nhCing cho phi xU ly c i c c i nhkn g i y thiet hai.
An toan vdi mdc tai nan b i n g khong Nhu'ng d u i n x a y d i i n g d V i e t Nam ndi rieng va c i c nUdc dang phat t r i i n ndi chung da v i dang chii trpng g i i m thieu gia thanh de nang cao ip! n h u i n Q u i n ly an toan cac cong trinh, vi t h i c h u a dUdcquan tamdCmg mUc.Tuy nhien, gan day, nhieu n h i thau, cac cdng ty xay dUng Idn, d i e biet c i c d u an cd ngudn dau t u trUc tiep cOa nudc ngoai {FDD, da nhan thay tam quan trpng cua van de Quan ly an toan trong xky diing. Cac ban Q u i n ly eac d u i n FDI da c6 nhUng yeu cau ve Quan ly an toan trong cac cdng trinh x i y dUng ma ho dau t u v i o v i thuc hien.
Dieu nay xuat phat t i i hai ly do: Cac cong trinh xay dung phai d i m bao yeu cau ve an toan, bdi vl tai nan cd the anh hudng den danh tieng v i sU dau t u qudc te; v i do su c i i tien cua luat an toan lao ddng p h i i dUdc ap dung Tai Viet Nam, mdt v i i cdng ty x i y dUng da nhan thay loi ich cua viec Q u i n ly an toan. Ho tin r i n g , Quan ly an to^n tdt se tao nen danh tieng, tinh than n h i n vien tdt hon va nhieu co hdi thang thau trong cac cudc dau thau mang t a m e d qudc te.
Trong mdt hdi t h i o v l nganh xay dUng, td chdc gan day tai Tp.HCM, nhieu chuyen gia xay dung Viet Nam da khang djnh: T y thuyet va thiic tien trong viec Quan ly rui ro tai Viet Nam
cdn yeu kem va gan nhU d mdc zero Tai Viet Nam, nhdng han che ddi vdi Quan ly riii ro do la thieu hut ve t d chdc, thieu hut ve dieu kien yeu cau nhu thdi gian, tai nguyen va gia thanh, cac nha Q u i n ly khdng quen thudc vdi Q u i n ly riii ro. Ngoai ra, khach hang lai khdng cd nhu cau ve Quan ly rCii ro, them viee thieu hut chuydn gia va kmh nghiem ve Quan If rCii ro, thdng tin trao ddi giQa cac ddi t i c bi gidi han".
5. Ket luan
Bat ky dU i n nao cung p h i i ddi dien vpi nhCing sU kien ed k h i n i n g t i e ddng den myc tieu d u an. NhCrng su kien n i y cd the duac dU b i o trUdc hoac ddi khi khong the dU bao trudc.
Mot khi duoc d u bao trudc, nhom d u an se cd nhCmg bien phap dU phdng chii ddng, va vi the se han c h l dUoc tae ddng cd the x i y ra cua rui ro.
Cd nhUng rui ro cd t h i d l dang nhin thay trUdc khi bat dau tien hanh dU an, nhUng cung cd nhiing riii ro chi nhin thay duac khi da x i y ra. DU i n eang cd nhieu sU cd xay ra eang minh chUng cho viec nhdm d u an khdng thS'y duoc da sd cac rui ro cd the xay ra trong dU an, va cung cd the minh chdng cho viec nhdm dU i n CO the thay dUpc rui ro nhUng khdng ed bien phap phdng ngda hpp ly.
Viec mdt sU c6 x i y ra ma khdng cd ke hoach du phdng se dan Sen muc tieu dU i n bi t i e Sdng. MCic do anh hUdng nhd se lam tre tien do, vuot ngan sach, giam chat luong, rdi loan ndi bd td chdc, xa hon nCra co the lam that bai toan bd d u i n , i n h hudng den uy tin t d chu'c va quan he vdi khach hang.
Vi the, ndi den quan If rui ro tdc la ndi den viec quan ly chu ddng, tich cUc han la x d ly sU CO, thu ddng. Y nghTa Idn nhat cua q u i n ly rCii ro la khai pha nhCing rCii ro tiem an chua dUoc nhan dien thanh nhUng riii ro cd t h i n h i n dien, song hanh vdi viec phan tieh va cd g i i i phap hop ly de ddi phd vdi nhu'ng rin ro ay. Vi sao?
D u i n ludn tdn tai v d s d c i c rill r o t i e m anchUa duoc nhan dien, va khi ay, neu rCii ro xay ra se la mot bat ngd ddi vdi nhdm d u an. Va su bat ngd tieu cUc cd the mang d i n nhCfng hau qua khdng ludng trudc dUoc
Da d i n luc cac nha q u i n tri doanh nghiep Viet Nam c i n nhin nhan mdt each nghiem tuc ve vai trd cua hoatddng quan lyrCiiro, can nhac thiet lap va duy tri mdt he thdng q u i n ly rCii ro trong doanh nghiep cua minh. Kmh nghiem thue te cho thay, mdt khi rOi ro dudc dU b i o trudc, doanh nghiep hoan t o i n ed the xay dUng va trien khai nhdng ke hoach dng phd hieu q u i va phat trien b i n vdng.
TAILIEUTHAIUKHAO
1. Cac luat flinh hen guar. Luat flau t u nam 2005, Luat To Chile Chinh phu nam 2001, Luat Xaj^ dung nam 2003, tuat Doanh nghiep nam 2005, tuat dau thau nam 2013 va cac Luat flmh lien quan khac.
2 Cac nghi dinh va van b i n du'^' luat lien quan;
- Nghi dinh 12/2009/Ne-CP nam 2009 ciia Chinh phii vf quan ly dUan Sau t u x a y duTig cting trinh
- Nghi dmh 15/2003/Ntl-CP nam 2013 cfia Chfnh phii vi quan ly chat lifting cong trinh
-Cac Nghi dinh lien quan khac
3 e D { ) i n h t ) i i c - B i l l Manh HiJng (2012), Quan l y d u a n dau t u x a y dung cSng trinh, NXB xay difng Ha Noi, nam 2012
4 Bill Ngoc Toan (2012), Nghiep vu quan l y d U a n d S u t i / xay dung cong trinh, NXB xay di/ng Ha Noi, nam 2012.
5. fimh Tuan Hai va Pham Xuan Anh (2013), Ouar ly dif an xay dimg trong qua trinh t h i cong xSy I3p, Nha xuat ban xay dung, nam 2013
6 Knight, Franit H. (2002). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Nha xuat ban Breard Books, nam 2002.
7. Irving Pfeffer, David R Klock (1974), Perspective on insurance, Nha xuat ban Prentice-HaII, 1974.
8. Manlu Hurt McCarty (2001), The Nobe! taureates: How the World's Greatest Economic Minds Shaped Modern Thought, Nha xua't b^n McGravj-HilL 2001.
9. Stephen Olubodunwa Ogunlana (2013), Structural Equation Model for analysing critical risks associated with facilities management outsourcing and its impacts on firm performance,Journal of Facilities Management, 2013
10 StephenOlubodunwaOgunlana (2014), Prioritization of Demand Risk Factors in PPP infrastructure projeds, Proceedings of the 2014 Construction Research Congress, 2014.
11 Ngan hang The gidi (WB) (2008), The World Bank Annua! Report 2008
12 Cac tai heu va tham khao khac lay t i l nguon t u heu mi
