TAP CHi CdNe THIfdNC
TIEP CAN BEN VlJNG TRONG DIEU CHINH QUY HOACH NGUON DIEN VIET NAM
THdl KY HAU DIEN NGUYEN TlT
BUI XUAN HOI
TOM TAT:
Sau khi dffng dff an dien nguyen tff, Quy hoach dien VII lap tffc dffdc dieu chinh vdi diem nhan kha rd la phat trien dien chay than trong cd ca'u ngudn. Theo dd, du giam 5.3% vao nam 2020 nhffng san Iffdng dien tff than vSn chiem ti le qua ldn 55% vao nam 2025 va 53,2% nam 2030. Dieu nay dffdng nhff di ngffdc vdi xu the chung cua quy hoach ngudn dien la gia tang ty trong dien tai tao trong cd ca'u ngudn.
Bai bao de xua't phffdng an dieu chinh quy hoach ngudn vdi tie'p can ben vttng trong muc tieu dam bao an ninh trong cung cap dien nhffng van cd the ban che phat trien dien than d giai doan trffde mat trffde khi day manh phat muc tieu dien tai tao trong giai doan tie'p theo.
Tuf khoa: Quy hoach ngudn dien, phat trien ben vttng, nhiet dien than, nhiet dien khi, dien tai tao.
1. Dat van de
Nhttng nam gan day, Viet Nam la qud'c gia cd nen kinh te phat trien nhanh vdi tang trffdng GDP ludn duy tri d mffc 6 - 7%/nam. Vdi da tang trffdng nay, trong vdng 20 nam, Viet Nam da tff mot nffdc trong nhdm cd thu nhap tha'p trd thanh mot qud'c gia cd thu nhap trung binh. Tuy nhien, chinh sff cat canh ve phat trien kinh te', cung qua trinh do thi hda, sff gia tang dan so' nhanh chdng da keo theo nhffng yeu cau ve phat trien nhanh cua nganh Nnang Iffdng, dac biet la dien lffc. Trong dieu kien do, vdi cac dac trffng kinh te ky thuat khac biet cua nganh, cdng tac quy hoach phat trien he thdng dien ddi hdi phai dffdc trien khai rapt each ben vffng, nham hai hda cac muc tieu ve phat trien kinh te, xa hoi va bao ve radi trffdng, ddng
thdi can dd'i gitta cac rauc tieu ngan ban, trung va dai ban.
Cudi nam 2016, ngay sau khi Qud'c hoi bd phieu thdng qua viec dffng trien khai dff an dien hat nhan, phffdng an dieu chinh Quy hoach dien VII da difdc phe duyet vdi sff quay trd lai phat trien cac dif an nhiet dien than do tinh ddn gian va kinh nghiem trien khai cac dff an nay d Viet Nara. Tuy vay, vdi nhttng tac dong ldn dd'i vdi radi trffdng da difdc chffng minh, viec Iffa chpn thuc day manh phat trien dien than di ngffdc hoan toan vdi xu hffdng phat trien ben vttng, cung nhff xu hffdng nang lffdng cua the gidi. Chinh vi vay, viec tiep tuc dieu chinh Quy hoach dien VH dieu chinh la v6 cung can thiet, vdi each tie'p can ben vttng, phu hdp hdn cho "giai doan trung chuyen ", trffde khi tang cffdng phat trien
TE
cac ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao cho tang trffdng xanh, ffng phd vdi bie'n ddi khi hau toan cau.
/. SUgia tdng nhanh ciia lUcfng cdu vedien ndng LTnh vffc nang Iffdng Viet Nara chffng kien sif gia tang tieu dung dien nang rat ldn, dac biet la tff khi nen kinh te chuyen tff ke hoach hda tap trung sang thi trffdng. Nhttng nara gan day, tang trffdng tieu dung dien rdi vao 13%/nara cho giai doan 2006-2010 va 10%/nara cho giai doan 2010-2015 (Bang 1). Theo dff lieu cua Quy hoach dien 7 dieu chinh, de dap ffng du Iffdng cau ve dien trong nffdc dam bao cac muc tieu phat trien kinh te - xa hdi vdi mffc tang trffdng GDP binh quan khoang 7,0%/nara trong giai doan 2016 2030 thi san Iffdng dien thffdng pham nam 2020 phai dat khoang 235 245 ty kWh; nam 2025 khoang 352 379 ty kWh; nam 2030 khoang 506 - 559 ty kWh. Tffdng ffng vdi dd la dien san xua't.va nhap khau nara 2020 khoang 265 278 ty kWb; nam 2025 khoang 400 - 431 ty kWh va nam 2030 khoang 572 632 ty kWh. Tff nhttng dtt lieu dd, Bp Cdng Thffdng da dffa ra dff bao trong kich ban tang trffdng cham la mffc tang 10% tieu dung dien nang cho tdi nam 2020, 8% giai doan 2020-2025 va 6% d giai doan 2025-2030. (Bang 1)
Sff gia tang tieu dung nay dffdc xem la rat khac biet, ngay ca khi kinh te Viet Nam dang d giai doan phat trien nhanh. Nd the hien qua tnnh sff dung nang Iffdng chffa thffc stf tiet kiem, eac chffdng tiinh quan ly phu tai (DSM) cdn chffa ddng bp va hieu qua, ddng thdi tdn that trong qua tiinh truyen tai va phan phdi cdn rat ldn. Xin nhac lai rang chi vdi mffc tang trffdng 7% nam, Iffdng tieu dung dien se gap 2 lan sau 10 nam. Thffc te, ngay nhff d Phap vao nhttng nara 30 cua the ky trffde, khi nen cdng nghiep d giai doan thinh vffdng thi tang trffdng tieu diing dien nang cung chi vao Idioang 7%/nam. Nhff
vay, ap lffc dd'i vdi phia cung ffng dien d Viet Nara la rat ldn do sff gia tang Iffdng cau qua nhanh, dac biet la khi san pham dien nang cung-cau phai can bang d mpi thdi diera.
2. Quy hoach nguon dien - bdi hoc tU dien nguyen td vd phdt trien cdc ngudn tdi tao
De dap ffng Iffdng cau ve dien tang nhanh tff sau giai doan "Ddi mdi", Quy hoach dien VII cho giai doan 2011-2020 tam nhin 2030 da dat ra nhttng tham vpng ldn ve cac ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao va dac biet la nang Iffdng nguyen tff. Cu the, Quy hoach xac dinh muc tieu ffu tien phat trien ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao cho san xuat dien. Phat trien nhanh, tffng bffdc tang ty trpng dien tff ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao d mffc 3,5% nam 2010, len 4,5% tdng dien nang san xua't vao nam 2020 va dat 6% vao nam 2030; dffa tdng cdng sua't ngudn dien gid tff mffc khdng dang ke hien nay len khoang 1.000 MW vao nam 2020 va khoang 6.200 MW vao nam 2030. Dien nang san xua't tff ngudn dien gid chiem tff 0,7% nam 2020 len 2,4% vao nam 2030. Theo Quy hoach nay, se dffa td raay dien hat nhan dau tien cua Viet Nara vao van hanh nara 2020; den nara 2030 ngudn dien hat nhan cd cdng sua't 10.700 MW, san xua't khoang 70,5 ty kWh (chiem 10,1%
san Iffdng dien san xuat).
Tuy vay, thffc te trien khai cung ffng dien dac biet la phan ngudn dien lai khdng dien ra nhff da neu trong Quy hoach. Vdi tham vpng ve dien nguyen tff, chung ta da thu'c hien cac khoan dau tff khdng nho d mpi khau cua qua tiinh chuan bi, de rdi khdng cd td may dien nguyen tff nao van hanh vao nam 2020 khi Qudc hdi thong qua quyet dinh dffng dff an dien nguyen tff vao nara 2016. Cac ly do dffdc dffa ra trffde bet nara d phffdng dien kinh te.
Sau thara hpa dien nguyen tff Fukushiraa nara 2011
Bang 1. Tieu dung vd tdng tradng tieu dung dien ndng cua Viet Nam vd the gidi giai doqn 2000-2016
Tieu dung di^n Vi$t Nam
(TWgid) Tang tn/dng /nam The gidi (TWgid) lang trffdng /nam
2000
26.7
15510.5
2005
52.1 12.7%
18430.6 4.3%
2010
91.7 13.7%
21561.7 6.4%
2012
115.1 13.4%
22797.3 2.5%
2014
142.3 14.3%
23844.0 1.9%
2015
159.7 12.3%
24215.5 1.6%
2016
175.7 10.0%
24816.4 2.5%
2005-15
11.9%
2.8%
Ngudn: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
TAP CHi CONG THirUNG
d Nhat Ban, chi phi cua cac nha may dien nguyen tff da tang raanh. Ddng thdi, cd the nhan thay rapt chffdng tiinh dien nguyen tff thffc te ddi hdi nhttng dau tff ve nhan lffc, quan tri cdng nghe va tai chinh qua sffc ddi vdi Viet Nara d giai doan hien tai trong khi cac ket qua lai chi dat dffdc trong dai han.
Quy hoach dien VII cung khdng thanh cdng vdi cac ffu tien phat trien cac ngudn dien tai tao khi thffc te cho thay cac dif an dien gid hay dien mat trdi cdn rat xa vdi muc tieu dat ra. Trong giai doan thffc hien Quy hoach, cac nha may san xua't dien d Viet Nam tap trung vao ba nhdm ehinh: thuy dien, nhiet dien chay than va nhiet dien chay khi. Ve cdng sua't lap dat, tinh tdi thang 10/2016, tdng cdng sua't lap dat cua nhdm thuy dien la 17.022 MW, cua nhiet dien chay than la 12.705 MW va cua nhiet dien chay khi la 7.684 MW. Ngoai ra, nhiet dien chay dau cd tdng cdng sua't 1.154 MW va cac loai hinh san xua't dien khac nhff tff nang Iffdng gid hay nang Iffdng sinh khdi cd tdng cdng sua't khdng dang ke, khoang 109 MW, tffc la chi chiem khoang 0,2%
tdng cdng sua't dat toan he thdng (Hinh 1), kha xa so vdi cac muc tieu dat ra trong Quy hoach VII.
Hinh 1: Ca cau nguon cua he thong dien qua: gia theo nang luang sa cap nam 2015
Nguon: Cue dieu tii't Dien luc (FRAP)
Rd rang, nhttng van de ve sua't chi phi dau tff ddi vdi cac ngudn dien tai tao d giai doan lap quy hoach, mffc dp ffu tien thffc te cho muc tieu bao ve radi tiirdng trong qua trinh phat trien kinh te xa hdi ciia dat nffdc, cac hd trd tff phia Nha nffdc la chffa du de phat trien cac ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao da dat ra trong Quy hoach dien VII. Bai hpc dien nguyen tff va dien tai tao trong Quy hoach dien VII
chi ra rang bai toan quy hoach dien lffc can phai dffdc trien khai rapt each can dd'i gitta rapt ben la cac muc tieu quy hoach vdi rapt ben la cac nguon lffc thffc hien, ddng thdi phai tdng hda cac ldi icli theo thdi gian. Chung ta khdng the an dinh cac muc tieu thara vpng trong quy hoach nhffng thffc te cac ngudn lffc khdng hoac chffa the cho phep thffc hien, vi neu quy hoach bi pha vd thi he luy la rat ldn fren rapi phffdng dien kinh te', xa hdi, mdi trffdng...
3. PhUffng dn quy hoach dieu chinh vd sU trd lai cua dien than
Viec dffng dif an nha may dien nguyen tff va viec chffa dat dffdc rauc tieu dien tai tao da buoc Viet Nara ngay lap tffc can tira kiem cac nguon dien mdi thay the nham dam bao viec dap iJng Iffdng cau dffdc dff bao tang gap 3 lan vao nam 2030. Vay, nhttng ngudn nang Iffdng sd cap thay the nao da dffdc can nhac trong quy hoach VII dieu chinh nam 2016?
Y tffdng dieu chinh quy hoach la cac nguon tai nguyen thuy dien da dffdc khai thac qua nhieu trong khi cac ngudn tai tao lai phat trien qua cham va vi vay can nhanh chdng xay difng cac nha may nhiet dien than mdi nhara dap ffng nhu cau ve dien.
Trong Quy hoach dien VII dieu chinh, tuy bi cat giam 5,3% nhfftig nhiet dien than van chie'm vai tro chu dao trong tdng cd ca'u ngudn dien nhieu nam tdi. Dff kien den nam 2020, nhiet dien than chiem 49,3% va de'n nam 2025 chiem tdi 55% tdng nguon dien cua ca nffdc. Trong quy hoach dien VH dieu chinh, Chinh phu da loai bo 18 nha may nhiet dien than vi mffc dp d nhiem mdi trffdng qua ldn nhifng trong khi chffa tira dffde ngudn dien thay the, giai phap raa nhttng ngffdi lara quy hoach de xuat vIn la tiep tuc phat trien cac dtf an nhiet dien than chi vdi khuyen nghi khdng nen tap trung qua nhieu cl phia Bac.
Lffa chpn dien than d phffdng an dieu chinh nay xem ra la lffa chpn an toan dam bao an ninh trong cung cap dien nang phuc vu cac muc tieu phatffien kinh te. That vay, vdi ffu the ngudn cung dn dinh, mffc dp kiera soat cdng nghe, kinh nghiem nhieu nam lam dien than cua EVN thi day la giai phap cho phep giai quyet nhttng thie'u hut trong thdi gian sap tdi tff "stf ed dien nguyen tff". Tuy nhien, c6 nhieu ly do de ndi rang, Quy hoach VII dieu chinh da dat qua nang vai trd cua nhiet dien than hong cd ca'u ngudn dien d giai doan sap tdi, nhttng dieu
KINH TE
chinh cd phan vdi vang, tap trung cho muc tieu dam bao ldi ich kinh te trffde mat, chffa xera xet rapt each tdng hda cac ldi ich, thieu Id tnnh phat trien nang Iffdng ben vttng.
Trudc he't, khi ehinh sach nang Iffdng qudc gia tich hdp cac rauc tieu ve bao ve mdi trffdng va dac biet la ffng phd vdi bie'n ddi khi hau thi viec nhanh chdng giara dan vai trd cua nhiet dien than la vd cung can thiet.
Bdi le, gia tang sff phu thuoc vao ngudn nang Iffdng sd cap nay la mot sff lffa chpn gay d nhiera mdi trffdng d quy md trong nffdc va quy md toan cau. Lffdng phat thai khi CO2 cua
nganh Dien hien tai da la 75 MtC02, tffc la rapt nffa tdng Iffdng khi thai cua ca nffdc. Vdi kich ban dffa vao nhiet dien than nhff ban quy hoach dieu chinh, Iffdng phat thai CO2 cd the se gia tang gap 3 hoac 4 lan vao nara 2030. Vdi cam ket trong thda thuan Paris ve giara khi thai, chung ta khdng the lifa chpn ngudn nang Iffdng phat thai CO2 ldn nha't vi dieu nay rat raau thuan.
Nhff vay, neu tdng hda cac radi quan he nang Iffdng, phat trien kinh te - xa bdi song hanh vdi muc tieu bao ve mdi trffdng ba tru cot cua phat trien ben vttng, thi phffdng an quy hoach dat nang vai trd cua dien than khdng phai la phffdng an quy hoach ben vffng. Nhff ldi nhan xet cua chuyen gia kinh te^
Phara Chi Lan: "Viet Nam tdn qua nhieu nang Iffdng cho tang trffdng va nhan danh tang trffdng de phat trien nang Iffdng raa cu the la nhiet dien than.
Dd la cffa tff".
Thd hai, quy hoach dien dieu chinh sau khi tff bd dien nguyen tff da chffa nhin nhan dung mffc vai trd cua cac ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao d giai doan quy hoach. Trong khi dd, day la cac ngudn nang Iffdng sd cap ma hau bet cac quy hoach dien life cua cac nffdc, tff phat trien tdi dang phat trien, deu hffdng tdi vi rauc tieu giam thai va phat trien ben vttng.
Dac biet, nhttng rao can trffde day ve chi phi dau tff cua cac ngudn tai tao hay cae khd khan ky thuat ve tinh hen tue trong cung ffng da dffdc giai quyet rapt each nhanh chdng nhd cac tien bp khoa hpc cdng nghe. Ddn cff, chi phi dau tff cac ngudn dien gid va dac biet la dien mat trdi da giam nhanh chdng (Hinh 2) va vdi xu hffdng nhff hien nay tdi nam
Hinh 2: Xu hudng giam chi phf dau tu cda cac nha may di$n m0t trdi giai doan 2004-2017
•»"»"*( <«<*«»»
.^Ht^t^n ft«'
Nguon: Syntegra Solar 2017
2020, gia dien raat trdi se canh tranh mdt each sdng phang vdi dien than va vao nam 2025, gia dien gid se canh tranh dffdc vdi dien than.
Tat nhien, d thdi diem hien tai, chung ta cung khdng the ngay lap tffc dieu chinh cd ca'u ngudn dien tap trung vao ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao. Vdi nen tang ha tang cdng nghe nhff hien nay, vdi mffc dp kiem soat cdng nghe va cac cd che chinh sach cua Nha nffdc lien quan den phat trien nang Iffdng tai tao, Viet Nam van chffa hoan toan san sang phat trien cac ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao rapt each d at va nhanh chdng nhin tff doanh nghiep dien life cung nhff tff phia quan ly nha nffdc. Trong dieu kien nhff vay, quy hoach dien van can tiep tuc dieu chinh theo hffdng can cd nhttng phffdng an ngudn de giara nhe vai trd cua dien than, ddng thdi chd dpi sff phat trien manh me cac ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao cd cau ngudn cho giai doan chuyen ddi.
4. Khi dot - PhUdng dn nguon cho giai doan chuyen ddi tUdien than sang dien tdi tao
Tff nhan xet cua chuyen gia Pham Chi Lan, ngoai viec can thie^t phai thffc hien cac chinh sach quan ly phu tai nham giam bdt tdn that, chung ta cd the nghien cffu thera phffdng an dieu chinh quy hoach theo hffdng tang cffdng vai trd cua khi dot hay dien khi cho giai doan chuyen tiep cua qua tnnh chuyen ddi tff dien than sang cac ngudn dien tai tao. Khi dot raac du cung la ngudn nang Iffdng hda thach, tffc la cung phat thai khi nha kinh nhffng cd the nd la rapt lffa chpn hieu qua hdn so vdi dien than tren binh dien phat trien ben vffng. De xua't nay dffa tren cac can cff cd ban sau.
TAP CHi CONG THlAfNG
Trffde bet la trong ngan ban, san xua't dien bang cac turbin khi la chu trinh ket hdp hien dai cd chi phi dau tff kha tha'p. Hdn nffa, cac van de ve kiera soat va quan tri cdng nghe, thiet bi vdi dien khi khdng cdn la mdi me, la lam d Viet Nam. Ndi each khac, chung ta cd the lam chu dffdc ve mat cdng nghe dien khi nhff dd'i vdi dien than. Ve phffdng dien phat thai, dien khi cho phep giara Iffdng phat thai khi nha kinh theo kwh rapt nffa so vdi Iffdng phat thai cua dien than (khoang 400 so vdi 900g C02/kwh cua nhiet dien than (Bang 2). Nhff vay, phffdng an dieu chinh vdi dien khi thay vi tap trung vao dien than la rat dang nghien cffu ngay ca trong ngan ban. (Bdng 2)
Bang 2: LUdng phdt thai CO2
cho than de dap ffng nhu cau cap bach, ddng thcii giam bdt sif phat trien cua dien than, dieu ma chi c6 the dan den be tac trong dai ban.
5. Quy hoach ngudn di^n Vi$t Nam: Can tiep tuc dieu chinh
Dffa tren cac dtt lieu ve Iffdng cau theo dff bao, mffc dp phat thai dien khi va dien than, cd the tinh toan rang, dd'i vdi trffdng hdp cua nffdc ta, mot kich ban ca'u true ngudn "dien tai tao + dien khi"
cd the giup giara Iffdng phat thai cua nganh Ddien khoang 25% vao nam 2030 va 50% vao nam 2050 so vdi kich ban ngudn "dien tai tao -t- dien than".
Vai trd tiem nang cua dien khi nham tranh the be tac cua dien than trong dai ban chac chan rat dang cija cdc loqi nhd mdy dien
Loai nha may di§n Luong C02/kwh
(dv: gam)
Thuy di$n
4
Djgn nguyen ti!r
6
Di§n gio
3-22
Djgn m^t trdi
60-150
Khf dot chu trinh ket hdp
427
Nhigt di$n dau
891
Nhi$t dien than
978
Ngudn: https://www. greenit. net/
Tiep dd, trong trung ban, khi raa cac ngudn tai tao, dac biet la dien gid va dien raat trdi da phat trien d quy md ldn, cac nha may dien khi vIn rat bffu ich khi nd cd the trd thanh rapt giai phap raang tinh hd trd cho nhttng tinh hudng ma dien mat trdi hay dien gid gap van de ve tinh lien luc trong cung ffng, vi dien khi ciing rat dn dinh va kha nang hda Iffdi cdn tdt hdn ca dien than. Nhff vay, phffdng an khi ddt van rat can thie't va dffdng nhien td't hdn so vdi dien than, ngay ca khi cac ngudn dien tai tao da phat trien raanh.
Va cudi cung la trong dai ban, nhien lieu khi ddt tff nhien (ngudn hda thach) dau vao cua cac nha raay dien cd the dffdc thay the bdi cac ngudn "khi xanh hay khi sinh hpc" la ke't qua cua qua trinh methanol hda. Sff thay the nay se la phffdng an hieu qua hdn ra't nhieu so vdi viec phai ddng cffa cac nha may dien than do qua d nhilra. Phat trien cac nhien lieu sinh hpc, than thien vdi radi trffdng chac chan se la dinh hffdng chung cua ca the gidi cung vdi viec phat trien cac ngudn nang Iffdng tai tao. Nhff vay, phffdng an dien khi la mot giai phap thay the
gia dd'i vdi cac nffdc phat trien nhanh nhff Viet Nam, ndi ma nganh Dien phai dap ffng mot each nhanh chdng sff gia tang cua Iffdng cau.
"Phffdng an dien khi" ebo giai doan chuyen doi tff nhien heu hda thach d nhilra sang dien tai tao, vi vay can dffdc tiep tuc nghien cffu de cd cac can cli khoa hpc xac dang hdn ve khia canh radi trffcfng, kinh te trong ngan ban, trung va dai ban trong sii so sanh vdi "phffdng an dien than" de tiep tuc dieu chinh quy hoach dien VII. Nhin ra the gidi, d My sif thay the than da bang khi dot la rapt yeu td trung tara trong chinh sach "nang Iffdng khi hau"; tai Dffe la chinh sach nang Iffdng khong than da; cl Phap, dff kien den nara 2022 tat ca cac nha may dien than se bi ddng cffa va thay the la eac nha may chay khi... Gan chung ta nha't, Trung Qudc dang trien khai viec ddng cffa hang loat cac nha may dien than de thay bang cac nha raay dien khi. Do ed the la nhttng bai hpc ma chung ta can tham khao de can nhac thay the phat trien dien than bang dien khi khi dieu chinh quy hoach dien lffc theo hffdng ben vttng hdn •
TAI LIEU THAM KHAO:
1. Patrick Criqui [2016]: Apres laccordde Paris, la nouvelle geopolitique des innovations energetiques in La revue Internationale et strategique, Paris: A. Colin: Institut des relations Internationales et strategiques, pp. 153-161.
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2. Jacques Despres, Nouredine Hadjsaid, Patrick Criqui, Isabelle Noirot [2015]: Modelling the impacts of variable renewable sources on the power sector: Reconsidering the typology of energy modelling tools in Energy, Elsevier, 80, pp.486-495.
3. Nathalie Alazard-Toux et al. [2014]: Les scenarios de transition energetique de TANCRE.Revue de I'Energie, 'pp. 189-210.
4. Quye't dinh sd428/QD-TTg cua Thu tUdng Chinh phu (2016): Phe duyet dieu chinh quy hoach phdt trien dien luc qudc gia giai doan 2011-2020 cd xet de'n ndm 2030.
5. Quye't dinh sd 1208/QD-TTg cua Thu tUdng Chinh phu (1208): Phe duyet quy hoach phdt trien dien lUc qudc gia giai doan 2011-2020 cd xet de'n ndm 2030 (Quy hoach dien VII).
6. Dd lieu qudc gia Viet Nnam ndm 2017 tren trang thdng tin cua Ngan hdng Tthe gidi (World Bank) http://www. worldbank. org/vi/country/vietnam.
7. Dii lieu tai BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017, tren https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/
corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf
Ngay nhan bai: 21/9/2018
Ngay phan bidn danh gia va sufa chffa: 1/10/2018 Ngay chap nhSn dang bai: 11/10/2018
Thdng tin tdc gid:
PGS. TS. BUI XUAN HOI Bo mon Kinh 16' Cong nghiep TrffoTng Dai hoc Bach khoa Ha N6i
SUSTAINABLE APPROACH IN ADJUSTING THE MASTER PLAN FOR POWER SOURCES DEVELOPMENT OF VIETNAM AFTER
POSTPONING THE NUCLEAR POWER DEVELOPMENT
• Ph.D, Assoc. Prof, BUI XUAN HOI Deportment of Industrial Economics Hanoi University of Science and Technology
ABSTRACT:
After postponing the nuclear power plan, the master plan for power sources developraent VII was immediately adjusted with a clear emphasis on the development of electricity production from coal among electricity sources of Vietnam. According to the adjusted plan, although the proportion of electi-icity production from coal will be reduced by 5,3% by 2020, the proportion of this electricity source in 2020 and 2030 will still account for 55% and 53,2%, respectively. This trend seems to be in contrast with the general trend of the master plan for power sources development which aims at promoting the electricity production from renewable energy sources. This paper is to propose recommendations to adjust the master plan with a sustainable approach to ensure the energy security for Vietnam while still constraining the development of electricity production from coal, before promoting the growth of electricity production from renewable energy sources in the next development phase.
Keywords: Master plan for power sources developraent, sustainable developraent, electricity production from coal, electricity production from natural gas, electricity production from renewable energy sources.