TiM LAI GIA TRI THITC?

TOAN CANH - SU KIEN

T H I THird'NG C H U N G K H O A N V I E T N A M

TANG TRVONG THAN TRONG - TiM LAI GIA TRI THITC?

B A O C H A U

1

Wkn bien thi tnvvng chvng khoan (TTCK) Viet Nam trong thang 4 / 2 0 1 2 cho thay thi tnrang nhir dang tim lai gia tri thuc sau con suy thoai sau khi nhan duoc hau thuin boi mot loat thong tin vi mo tich cue, cdng huong them mdt so ky vong tnrac do cua nha dau tvve thj tnrang da trv thanh hien thuc.

T

ai thdi diem ndy, khi nhin lai do thi hai chi sd thi trudng trong nhiing phien giao dicb dau nam 2012, it ai cd thl ngd rfir^, sau chudi ngdy giam manh Uen t i ^ dd, thi trudng Iai cd su phuc hdi ail tupng keo dai cho den tan bdy gid. Ilnh td phien giao dicb dau tien ciia nam 2012 cbo din nay, ca hai chi sd chiing khodn VN Index vd HNX Index deu cd miic tfing dilm an tugng. Tren Sd Giao dicb Chiing khodn (SGDCK) Tp. HCM (HOSE), chi sdVN Index da chinh thdc vuot qua mdc 460 diem, dat 472,84 diem tai phidn giao dich 17/4, cao nhat trong gdn 11 thdng trd lai ddy. Va neii tinh td phidn giao dich ddu nfim (3/1) din phidn 7/5 tbi VN Index da tdng gan 40%, td 350 dilm len 486,31 diem. Tren SGDCK Ha Ngi (HNX), sau hon 4 thai^ nd luc ghi diem, chi sd HNX-Index cung da cd

mdc tdng manh tdi 46% (td 56,79 diem tai phien 3/1 len 82,8 diem tai phien 7/5). Thanh khoan thi trudng dugc cai thien rd ret, binh quan khoang 160 tneu chiing khodn tren ca hai san dupc chuyen nhuong trong phien, thdm chi trong 19 phien giao dich trong thdng 4, rieng HOSE dfi ed tdi 6 phien dat khdi lupng giao dich (KLGD) tren 100 tripu chiing khodn dugc chuyen nhugng/phien.

Trong thdng nay, nhung phien cd gid t n giao dich (GTGD) tren vai ngan ty tiep tuc dugc duy tri tren ca hai sdn. Ddc biet, chi tinh rieng san HOSE tai hai phien giao dich 18 vd 19/4 dd ghi nhan GTGD dat Ian lupt la 2.456 (y ddng va 2.350 ty ddng/phien.

Cd thl thay TTCK thdng 4 dd khdng cdn the gifing co trong bien dp rdng nhu trong thdng 3 md bilu dd cdc chi sd ehu chdt trong thdng the hipn nhip sdng tdng chdm nhung chdc vdi dinh sau cao hon

dinh trudc. Dien bien tbi trudng thdng 4 cdng cho thay niem tin cua nha dau tu nhu da trd lai kbi nhan duoc hdu thudn bdi mdt loat thdng tin vi md tich cue edng hudng them mdt sd l ^ vpng trucc dd ciia nhd dau tu vl tbi trudng da trd tbanh baentbuc.

Bdn chat cua TTCK Id thi trudng cua su mua ban ky vpng, vi the, dien bieii cua thi trudng Iudn dl trudc dien birai ciia kinh te vi md mpt nhip. Cff sd cho ky vpng cua giai doan tfing ciia thi trudng trong thdi gian gan day cd the duoc nhin nhdn tren nhiing khia canh nbu:

ThiinhEtt, cbinh sach tai khda ciia Chinh phu trong nfim 2012 vfin la Uu tien kilm che lam phat, dn dinh kinh te vi md, duy tri tfing trudng d miic hgp Iy gfin vdi ddi mdi md hinh tfing trudng va cff cau lai nen kinh te. Mdt loat thdng diep td rd su quan tdm cua Cbinh phii din cac bien phdp vuc day TTCK dfi gay dung niem tin cho nhd dau tu

So 163-Thing 5/2012 CHUNG KHOAN VIET N

TOAN CANH - S I ; KliN vl Cff hdi ciia thi trudng. Dfic bipt,

trong chii truong chung, cung vdi • tdi cau tnic nen kinh te, Chinh phu dd giao Bg Tfii ehinh xay dung Dl an tai cau tnic TTCK, thi trudng bao hiem, tai eau true cdc cdng ty chdng khodn (CtyCK). Cac de dn i nay da hodn thanh. Trong do, tai cdu true ve CtyCK d u ^ thi,rc hipn tbeo Quyet dinh 62/QD-BTC cua Bd trudng Bg Tdi chinh ban hdnh ngfiy 10/1/2012.

Thii hai, chinh sach tien tp (CSTT) cho du vdn duoc dieu hanh tbeo budng chfit che, than trgng nhung da dugc thuc hien ehu dgng va Unh boat hffn, the hien d ehd trong hai thdng hen ke (thang 3 va 4) Ngdn hdng Nhd nudC (NHNN) da 2 lan giam tran lai sudt, vdi muc tieu via giam bdt khd khan ve vdn cho doanh nghiep, nhdt la vdi cac doanh nghiep niem yet, vda tao dilu kien khoi thdng ddng tin dung chdy vao TTCK Lan dilu ehinh thd nhd't dien ra vao ngfiy 13/3/2012, NHNN ha tran lai sudt td 14% xudng 13% cho Ity han 1 thdng trd len. Cung vdl quyet dinh dd la thdng diep "lai suat se giam theo Id trinh, mdi quy giam I'Jf.

Cum ndm, lai suat buy ddng se gidm vl quanh 10%/ nfim". Lan dilu chinh thd bai khd bat ngd khi dien ra sdm hffn so vdi du tinh cua cac chuyen gia (2 lan dieu chinh ldi suat dien ra trgng vdng chua day mdt thang) vdo ngay 11/4/2012. \ Cling vdi viec ha tran ldi suat huy ddi^ xudng edn 12%'ndm, thdng ddc NHNN cung khdng dinh, Ifii suait cho vay vdi Iinh vuc khuyen khich san xuat se chi edn 13- i 16%/iiam. NHNN cung yeu cau 12 ngdn hang thuffng mai (NHTM) ldn chiem 85% thi phan tin dung ' thiet ke cdc chuffng trinh giam ldi suSit cho vay ddi vdi doanh nghiep. I

X / V V V V V V V / Z / r V V V V V V

Cd thl ndi nhufng thay ddi trong chinh sacb dieu hanh tien tp thdi gian gdn dfiy bao gdm nhieu dpng thdi ddng bp, cd bdn cha!t gan gidng nhu mdt gdi kich cau nhd nhfim ngdn chdn su dinh ddn trong nin kinh td. Dilu ndy dd kich TTCK di len. Trong bm cdnh xudt khau thdng 4 giam, hang tdn kho gia tdng, san xuat dinh ddn... thi ddng thdi giam ldi suat cua NHNN da tao them ddng luc giiip thi trudng ti^ tuc tang diem. Thuc te, tir cung doan phien giao dich 11/4 trd dl, sau khi cd thdng tin ha ldi sud't ldn 2, TTCK dd ghi nhdn nhieu phien tang manh me. Theo dd, chi sd VN Index vao phien cum cung cua thfing 4 dd dat 473,77 dilm (tang 7,47r so vdi thang 3), trong khi dd, HNX Index ciing tfing 10,6% so vdi dau thdng len 79,86 dilm (ngudng cao nhat la 80,37 dilm vao ngay 16/4),

Mdt dilm nhan nda hen quan din boat dgng ciia nganh ngan hdng, dd la chii truffng Cff cd'u lai ngdnh ngan hang dd va dang dem lgi nhung 1^ vpng cho gidi dau tu vl mpt cudc dai phdu, gidp thay ddi ve chat dra vdi hp thdng tin dung va khoi thdng he thdng trung chuyin vdn cho nin kinh te. Cdc cudc mua ban vd sdp nhdp (M&A) sdi ddng trong ngdnh ngfin

hdng thdi gian gan day cbinh la mpt trong nhung tac nhdn gii^

dien bi^i cua nhdm cd pbiai ng&i hdng, vmi kha binh Ifing trudc dfiy, dd chuyen dgng vd day sdng khi thu hut ca nhdng ddng tiln nho la Trong dd phai ke deh vu sap nh^

giua NHTM cd phan Sai Gdn - ffi Npi (SHB) va NHTM cd phan Nha Ha Ngi (Habubank) da gdy xdniao du luan trong thdi gian vtCt qua va ton khdng it giay miJc ciia bao ^m Theo dd, SHB se mua m Habubank va quy md vm ciia ngdn hang sap nhdp se dat gan 9.000 ty ddng. Nhdng vu M&A thudc mdt trong nhung chu tnftffig cua viec tai cau true be thoog ngfin hdng ma NHNN dang thir hifin nhfim tdng cudng ndng iMC tai chinh. Cung trong thang 4, TTQK dd ghi nhan mdt sd ma cd phi&

cua cac ngan hdng dat GTGD va KLGD ldn nhat nhu MBB (3,86%

i Zi phKu a KL Un Itn nhA

CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM S6163 - Thing 5/2012

TOAN CANH - SU KIEN

rniPiinapTi

va 3,89%), STB (11,64% vd 7,41%) va EIB vdi GTGD dat 3,54% toan thi trudng.

Thiiba, muc tidu kiem chl lam phat ff muc mpt chd sd cho ndm 2012 dudng nhu dfi sang sua hgn.

Trong cdc thdng 1 va 2/2012, chi sd gia tieu diing (CPI) ludn d mdc thap hffn so vdi cCmg Iq^ nfim trudc.

Thdm chi, thang 3/2012, CPI cung tdng thap nhat troi^ vdng 20 thdi^, bat chap anh hudng cua viec tdng gid xang dau, gas. Them vdo dd, thdng tm CPI thang 4 chi tdng 0,05% - la lan dau tien chi sd ndy t d i ^ d mdc thdp nhait trong vdng 3 nam qua (thdng 3/2009, CPI tfing dmdc thap nhat Id 0,17%) dd ciing cd them niem tin eiia gidi dau tu vl trien vong nen kinh tl. Viee CPI van duy tri dupc xu hudng giam trong sudt 4 thdng qua dd gdp phan giup on dinh tam ly nha dau tu, hd trp thl trudng ngay cang hung khdi hffn.

Thii tir, trong thdi gian gan ddy, cdc vdh dl vl gid vfing va ty gia da duoc kilm soat tuong ddi tdt. Cd thl ndi gidi dau tu dang chiing ki&i mdt thdi ky khd hilm hoi eua thi trudng ngoai hdi khi ty gid VND/USD tren thi trudng chinh thdc cung nhu tu do deu kha dn dinh, tham chi cdn giam. Trong mdt thdng trd Ipi ddy, gia vdng Uen

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5 Gii fhirn cd GI mu Itn nhi't s22,4W

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tue tut ddc, tnmg binh gia vang miaig dd giam khoang 1,2 tripu ! ddng mdi lugng trong thdng 4.

Nhiing ngay dau thang 4, gid vdng tai Ha Ndi va Tp. Hd Cbi Mmh dugc niem yet d mdc 43,850 nghin/lugng. Trong ba tuan Uen tiep, gid vfing thay ddi dcdc mdc 3 lan giii nguyen gid, 2 lan tang nhe va 14 lan giam gid. Tinh den bet ngay 30/4 gid vfing dugc niem yit d mdc 42.800 nghin ddng/luffng. Mdt sd chuyen gia phan tich cho rdng khdng khi giao dicb vang mieng trd nen tram Idng trong 4 thdng ] qua do xudl phdt td khd ndng sinh ' loi thfip cua gifi vang, ben canh dd <

Id tdm ly chd dgi xem tdc ddng cua Nghi dinh 24 vl quan ly kuih | doanh vang se anh hudng nhu the j ndo tdi thl trudng vang. Ddng thdi xu hudng tdng diem ciia TTCK ' ciing dupc eho la mdt trong nhiing j nguyen nhan hut bdt vdn dau tu '

vao vdng. , Hien nay, trong bmi kenh dau

tu chu liic thudng dugc nhdc dai | gdm chiing khoan, ngoai te, vang ; va bat ddng san, thi hai kenh vdng • va ngoai te dang rat tram Ifing vi khd cd kha nfing bioi ddng tang gia. Kenh bat ddng sdn vdn chua vugt khdi thuc trang quy md ngudn cung qud ldn so vdi nhu cau cd kha ndng thanh toan. Hon nua, ngudn ;

vdn dau tu cho bat dpng sdn | phu thudc nhilu vdo ngfin , hfing nhung hien mat bfing lai sudi vdn cao nen khd tbu but nha dau tu rdt tien vdo kenh nay. Do vdy, chiing khoan dudng nbu vdn Id kenh dau tu nhdn dUM: su quan tam nhilu nhat.

Ve viec hodn thien cff ehe & khung kbd ludt phdp, nhilu kha nang trong ndm nay, UBCKNN se cbo phep

nit ngan thdi gian giao dich tdT+4 xudng T+3; Ben canh dd, Bd Tai cbinh vua ky va ban banh Thdng tu sd 52/20 laTT-BTC budng dfin ve viec edng bd thdng tin tren TTCK giup thl trudng minh bach hffn, boat ddng lanh manb va cdng bang hon, budng tdi bao ve nha dau tu. Ngodi ra, Thdng tu 226/2010/rT-BTC chinh thdc cd hieu luc td 1/4/2012 quy dinh ehi tieu an toan tai chinh vfi cdc bien phap xd Iy ddi vdi cae td chiic ldnh doanb chdng khodn khdng ddp ling chi tieu an toan tdi chinh trong se gdp phan thanh lgc CtyCK giup nha dau tu yen tam ve trien vgi^ ciia thi trudng phat triln bin vung. Trong thang 5 nay, mdt loat nhiing giai phap ve viec thdo gd khd khan cho doanh nghiep do Chinh phii true tilp chi dao, trong dd pbai ke d6i thdng tin mien giam thue cho doanh nghiep ducK cae doanh nghiep ciimg nhu nhd dau tU ddnh nhieu quan tdm.

Kbi CSTT gap khd trong hd trff nin kinh te thoat khoi tinh trang dinh tre thi can gia tang hieu ndng ciia chinh sach tai ehinh. Trong dd, trpng tam Id sdm xem xet triln kbai chinb sdch mien, giam, gidn thue cho doanh nghiep va ngudi dan, de hd trg san xuat ciing nhu kich cau tieu dung. Ngodi ra, UBCKNN vda trinh Bd Tdi chinh phuong an dffn gian hda thu tue banh chinh ddi vdi nha dau tu nudc ngodi (DTNN) khi tham gia TTCK Viet Nam. Nlu thu tuc ndy khan trUffng dupc thdo gd, cdng vdi tin hipu hd trff nin ldnh te dan thodt khdi tinh ta-ang dinb tre sdm dupc phdt di, se giup TTCK cd them sdc hap ddn trong thu hut ddng vdn ngoai.

C^le nhiing ly do ketren chinh Id nhiing thdi^ tin vi md dugc ehd

So 163 - Thing 5/2012 CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM

TOAN CANH - SU K | £ N

dgi nhat va se cd tac dgng tich cue tdi TTCK trong thdi gian tdi. Theo cac chuyen gia phan tich, nhdng ly do tren diigc xem Id cd cff sd va da dupc phan anh kba day du vao gid chiing khodn. Ciing vdi da phuc hdi ciia thl trudng vd si^ tdng dilm manh me eua cae chi sd chiing khoan, gia ciia hau hit cae cd phieu tren ca hai sdn giao dich deu dfi ed su cai thien ddng kl, trong dd sd md tdng gid chiem the dp ddo. Tinh ehung trong thang 4, trdn ca hai sdn giao dich cd tdng cdng 187 md tfing gia tren 20%, trong dd cd 36 ma tfing tren 50%. Nhiing cd philu tang gia manh nhait trong thang 4 chu ye'u thudc cac nhdm nhu khodng san vdi KSH tdng manh tdi 859f td 8.000 ddng/cd phieu len 14.800 ddng/cd phie'u, KSS (+67,5%), KSA (+66,9%) ; cac cd phieu thudc 'lip" cao su nhu DRC (+68%), SRC (+84,8%), CSM (+71,3%); nhdm cd philu bait ddr^

san nhu SCR (+71,6%), P W (+62,5%), DID (+62,2%), HUT (+56,2%)... Tai HNX, qudn qudn tdng gid trong thang thudc vl cd philu VIX cua CtyCK Xuan Thfinh vdi mdc tdng len tdi 159%. Tinh deh phien giao dich 27/4, cd philu nay da ed 15 phien tdng tran Uen tuc. Cdn tren HOSE cung da xuait hien nhiing md co phieii cd muc tang gia tren 100% nhu FBT (+110%), BMC (+106%)...

Tuy nhien, cd y kien cho rdng dd tdng cua thi trudng trong thang 4^012 td rd su than trpng khi khdng cd nhieu phien tang diem ngoan mue hay mang tinh dpt pha, nhung vdi thanh khoan tbi trudng da dupc cai thien gap nhilu ldn so vdi thdng trudc dd nen nhin ehung xu hudng tang dudng nhu da dupc duy tri d t h l kha bin vdng. Vi the, gldl quan sat cho rfing thi trudng

dang rdt cdn mpt sd nhdn td tich cue thyc 8i,r de cd the bdt phd.

Nhiing nhan td ay ed the den td ddng ti('n ngo^i, khi md P/E cua Viet Nam dang d muc hd'p dan hffn so vol nhieu nudc trong khu v\^.

Td Fir ancial Times cua Anh dd cd bai vidt mang ti,ia de "Vietnam emerges from a tough few years" | (tam dich Id "Vipt Nam trdi dfiy ! sau ma^y nfim gian khd"). Bfii bao danh gia kha lac quan vl trien vpng kinh te chung cua Vipt Nam, i trong dd hieu hipn la su tfing diem manh md cua TTCK Viet Nam | trong thdi gian gdn ddy dd thu hut su quan tdm ciia cdc nhd DTNN. j Cdc nhd DTNN cho rdng trong , trung ban, Viet Nam vdn rdt hap i ddn mdc dd tdng trudng quy I chi dat 4% vd gfip vail de vl sdn xud't I va tieu dung trudc mdt. Trong thang 4, thdng ke cho thaiy tai ' HNX, nha DTNN da mua rang 10.119.265 CO philu vdi tdng gia tn ' len den 119,30 ty ddng nhung lai quay sang ban rdng tai HOSE khi ban rdng 25.864.044 chdng khodn tugng ling vdi gid tri dat 741,32 ty ddng. Trong dd, cd phieu MBB (Ngan hang Cd phan Quan dpi) dugc nha DTNN sfin mua nbieu nhat vdi khm lugng mua rong dat 11.345.790 cd phieu tuong dng vdi gid tn dat 177,32 ty ddng. Nhdng cd phie'u "dai gia" nhu VCB, MSN, , HPG, REE... la nhiing md cd khdi lupng mua rdng ldn tiep theo.

Trong thdng 4, STB vdn cam trich danh sdch bi nha DTNN hdn ra nhieu nhat khi dung dau Top 5 eae ma cd phieu ed khdi lugng ban rdng j ldn nhat vdi 44.333.494 cd phieu tuong ling vdi tdng gid tri d^t 1.065,14 ty ddng, tiep theo la VIC, DPM, CII vd BVH.

Lieu thi trudng se tiep tuc xu hudng tdng hay di ngang khi ed

mpt sd thdng tin trai chieu cho rfing chung ta khdng nen qud lac quan bdi "lam phdt thap va keo ddi nhu hipn nay Id bat binh thudng" vd nen ldnh te ed the di vdo vdng xoay nguy hilm khi stf l u ^ g doanh nghipp phd san ngay cang nhieu vd tdng trudng thi tri tr^. Ben canh dd, theo tinh toan cua cac nha phdn tich thi td nay din quy III/2012 Id giai doan si^

gidm tdng trudng vd gidm ddn bj^

tai chinh ciia todn bp nen kinhti Thdng ke tren cae TTCK thl gifi cho thdy, gia cd phieu se tao day khi nen kinh te khd khdn nhal.

Kinh te the gidi vdn tiep tuc dujc du bdo tdng tnrdng eham laL Theo ban bdo cdo triln vpng ldnh te th^

gidl dupc Quy tiln tp Quoc te (IMF) cdng bd ngdy 17/4, kinh te the gidi se tang trudng 3,5% tnng nfim nay vd 4,1% trong nfim 2013.

Theo dd, nhdm cdc nudc mdi ndivi cdc nudc dang phdt trien cd tdc d$

tdng trudng 5,7% vd 6% trong ndm nay va nam tdi. Ty 'e lai"

phat d cac nudc mdi ndi vd dang phat triln trong ndm 2012 dUDC IMF du bdo la 6,2% vd trong aim 2013 se la 5.6%. Ben canh do, nen kinh te the gidi vdn pbdi dm mfit vdi nhung thdch thdc chinh nhil khiing hodng ngf chdu Au ng^

cang sdu sfic (trong thdng 4, Tay Ban Nha dfi ndi gdt Hy l^p va trd^

thanh nan nhdn tilp theo cua <

khiing hoang ng cdng chau Ai^, le that nghiep cao tai My va gia i mdt sd hdng hda chii chdt nhu xdng dau leo thang... keo nhung he luy, tieu ciic ddi vdi tang trudng ldnh te toan cau. Dilu nsj dd anh hudng khdng nhd t6i TTCK tren the gidi ndi chui^ va phan ndo tac ddng din mgt bo phdn tdm ly nha dau tU tren TTCK Vidt Nam. ®

CHUNG KHOAN VIET NAM So 163 - Thang 5/2012