M d i sd VAN DE VE NGHIEN CLfU
CHIEN laOC QUAN SU TRONG TINH HINH Mdi
Og/ ta NGUYiN D6NG THIJY Viin Chl^ lupc Qudc phdng
Nghiin ciru chiin iugc ndi chung, Chiin lugc Quin sy ndi rieng ludn li vin di hp trong cda mgi qudc gia. Ddi v&i nu&c ta cQng vay. W the, trong th&i gian t&i, can diy manh hon nira cdng tic niy theo Nghi quyit Trung uang 8 (khda XO "Ve Chiin lugc liio vp To qudc trong tinh hinh m&i" da xac djnh.
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E E N ca sd quan trift sdu s i c cde chi thj, nghj quylt cCia Dang ve bao v f T l q u i c (BVTQ), nh&ng nam qua, Quan uy Tmng uang, Bf Quic phdng dd ldnh dgo, chl dgo eae ea quan ch&c ndng friln khai nghien e&u cac v i n de thupc Chiln layc Quoc phdng, Chiln luoc Qudn sy vd m f t so chiln luac chuydn ngdnh \thic, gdp phdn cung cap thdng tin vd nh&ng lufn c& khoa hpc v l quoe phfng, qufn sy giiip Dang, Nhd nude ddnh gid tinh hinh the gidi, l<hu vye va trong nude, xdy dyng chiln luwc phdt triln kinh t l - x i h f i , chiln lugc quic phdng, chiln loyc an ninh q u i c gia vd chiln logo BVTQ, trong dd cd Chiln luyc Qudn sy. Cdc van d l nghidn c&u phai Idm rd s y thay doi eye difn q u i c t l , khu vyc vd tinh hinh d i t nadc; sy phdt triln cua khoa hgc ky thuft, i(hoa hpc ky thugt quan s y vd khoa hpc nghf thugt qudn sy; nh&ng ta duy mdi trong edng tdc huln luyfn, san sang chiln dau vd chien dau, bao dam hdu d n , ky thugt trong m f t so hinh thdi chiln tranh mdi theo cdc tinh huong chiln lu-yc^ BVTQ, trcing d i l u kifn mdi.K i t qua nghifn c&u da tap tmng Idm rd nguydn nhan, d i l u kifn, hinh th&c, quy md, k i l u logi, phuang th&c tiln hdnh chiln tranh mdi ma cdc t h i lyc thil i^ch cd t h i gdy ra d l i vdi nu'dc ta.
D i n g thdi, phan tich lam ro dac dilm cCia ehiln tranh nhdn dan BVTQ frong dieu kien mdi. T& dd, tham muu cho Ddng, Nha node, Qudn iiy Trung
u'ong, B f Q u i c phdng v l mgc tifu vd phuang chdm chi dgo chien tranh theo hudng: phdt huy t u tudng chiln luvc t i l n cdng, chii d f n g BVTQ t& xa, cac gidl phdp nham phdt huy s&e mgnh cua khoi dgi doan k i t todn ddn tfc, g i n s&c mgnh trong nu^c vdi s&c mgnh quoc t l , nhit Id phdt huy s&e mgnh cCia eac node, cac t l ch&c vd nhan dan t i l n b f , y f u chudng hda binh trfn t h i gidi d l thu hgp khdng gian, nit n g i n thdi gian ehlln tranh; d i n g thdi, s i n sdng danh ddi ngdy Idm cho kd djch sa l i y , suy y i u , tgo d i l u kifn, thdi ca ciing eo, phdt triln t i i m lyc, t h i trfn ddnh ddn quylt djnh k i t thiic chien tranh,
Nh&ng ndm gan day, cdng tdc nghidn e&u ede van d l thudc C h i l n layc Quan s y di gdp p h i n chi dgo eac ca quan, dan vj todn qudn d l i mdi, nang cao chat lu-yng h u l n luyfn, san sdng chiln dau, nhat Id h u l n luyfn, s i n sdng chiln d i u ddnh t h i n g cac cugc t i l n cdng hda lyc du'dng khdng, s i n sdng huy d f n g mpi nguIn iyc, t f p trung s&c manh ddnh ddn quylt djnh gidnh t h i n g lyi tren bf. V l nghf thudt qudn sy da di sdu phdt t r i l n cdc hinh th&c, phmyng thirc d i u tranh vQ trang trong m f t s l logi hinh chiln
1 - G5m: "dien biln h6a binh" k^t hpp vdri b^o lopi l^t dl, b^o lo^n lat do kit hpp v&i lire Iugng phin ting nhanh, bao viy phong toa, tien cong h6a luc; chien tranh xSm lin biln, d^o; chiln tranh bien gioi; chiln tranh uy nhi?m; chien tranh xam lui?c quy m6 16n, v.v.
TAP CHi QU6C PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 12/2014
tranh. phoong th&c tde chiln chiln luac, phu-ang phap tdc chiln chiln djch, each danh chiln thuft, lam rd s y phdt triln eiia cdc hinh th&c, phoang th&c t i l n cdng phi vu trang cua cdc t h i lye thCi djch. Qua do, de x u i t 5 logi hinh tdc chiln c h i l n luyc cd t h i vdn dgng trong chien tranh BVTQ. Day ii t i l n d l quan trpng d l chung ta tiep tgc nghidn e&u, phat t r i l n cac n f i dung cCia C h i l n lu-ac Quan s y trong d i l u kifn mdi.
Ciing vdi phdt trien cdc v i n de thudc Chiln layc Qudn sy, v i f c nghidn c&u d i l u chinh ca c i u to ch&c, b i f n c h l trang bj ci!ia lyc lu'yng vu trang (LLVT) cung dgt nhieu k i t qua quan trgng.
Bu'dc d i u , da Idm rd nh&ng lugn c& khoa hgc, ddnh gid dung thyc trang, xae djnh mgc tidu, dua ra cdc quan diem, nguyen t i c , djnh hadng hyp ly, gdp p h i n xdy dyng Qudn ddi nhdn dan:
"cdch mgng, chinh quy, tinh nhuf, tong budc hifn dai" Idm ndng cot cho toan ddn danh giac.
Tuy nhif n, tnj'dc nguy ca, thdch th&e mdi v l q u i c phdng, qudn s y md Nghj quylt Trung uang 8 (khda XI) d§ chi ra, v i f c nghifn c&u Chiln luyc Qudn s y thdi gian tdi c i n chO dpng n i m c h i c tinh hinh, d y bao sat dung, lam rd nh&ng phdt trien cDa cac hinh thdi chiln tranh mdi. Od Id chiln tranh xdm l i n b l l n , ddo, bien gidi; chiln tranh mang,... n h i m cg t h i hda quan d i l m , dodng loi ciia Dang da dugc t h i hifn trong Chiln l o y c BVTQ, lam ca sd phdt trien ly lufn chiln tranh nhdn dan, nghf thuat qudn s y cua chiln tranh nhan ddn, xac djnh md hinh t l eh&c, phdt t r i l n LLVT nhdn dan, d l i mdi vu khi, trang bj, n f n g cao chat lu'O'ng h u l n luyfn,...
nhdm ngdn ng&a. day liii vd san sang danh thing cdc hinh thdi chiln tranh mdi bao v f vong c h i c To quoc trong mpi tinh huong.
Chiin tranh xim chiim biin, dio c6 nhiiu khi nang xiy ra. Bdi, B l l n Ddng cd vj tri dja chinh trj, kinh t l , quan s y quan trgng d l i vdi khu v y c va t h i gidi; Id vimg b l l n cdn ton tgi tranh c h i p gi&a cac node trong khu vyc vd n i m trong chiln lifyc cua m f t so node Idn. Trong khi dd, t h i va lyc ciia ta choa thft mgnh, tinh hinh t h i gidi, khu vyc, trong nu'dc dang d i l n b l l n phoc
tap, khd d y doan. Vi t h i , trong d y bao edn xem xet toan difn, to duy bifn ch&ng vd cai nhin todn cgc d l Idm rd nguyen nhan, d i l u kien, mgc dich cung nho ban chat chinh trj - xa hdi eua cupc chiln tranh. Ddng thai, d y kiln diing cdc tinh hulng, phoang th&c, thu doan t i l n hanh chiln tranh ey the cua ke fhCi; xdc djnh rd m i l quan h f gi&a chien tranh tren biln, dao vdi nh&ng boat dgng ching pha d ben trong; danh gia diing c h l manh, ehd y i u cCia chiing vd phdn tich danh gia cg t h i , ti ml nh&ng thugn lyi va khd khan ciia ta. T& dd, de xuat eac ddi sach chiln loge nham ngdn ng&a, day liii nguy ca xung d f t vd chiln tranh, chii dgng triln khai cdng tdc chuin bj lye logng, t h i tran, tao t h i trdn chiln tranh nhdn ddn tren biln, tren khdng, tren b f v&ng chic, nhat la t h i trgn blln, dao. Trong d i l u kifn hifn nay, trodc bdi cdnh cac node tang codng hifn dgi hda vu khi, trang bj vd phoang thoc tdc chien tren biln, Chiln luac Qudn s y cua ta chu trgng nghien e&u, phat trien phoang thoc t i l n hdnh chiln tranh vd nghf thugt quan s y ciia chiln tranh nhan dan tren chiln trodng bien, ddo, nhim phdt huy cao nhit s&c manh todn dan t f c vdi tinh t h i n : "cd node vi bien, dao, bien, ddo vi ca node". Trong d6, coi trgng nghien cou cdc chinh saeh nhdm tao t h i dan xen lyi ich vdi cac node, nhat Id vdl cac d l i tac chiln loge; gan s&c mgnh dan tpc vdi s&c manh thdi dgi trong d i l u kifn, hodn canh mdi, kifn quylt ddnh thing chiln tranh xdm loyc n i u cde t h i loc thu djch hilu chiln lilu ITnh gay ra d l i vdl node ta.
Chiin tranh xim ian bien gi&i co the xay ra khi cd nhung diiu kipn nhit dinh Trong dd phg thudc Idn vdo tinh hinh chinh tri cua mft s6 node lang gieng, nhit la thai dp ciia mot so node Idn CO nhieu tham vpng, cung nho boi canh cua tinh hinh q u i c t l , khu vyc. Vdi hinh thai chiln tranh ndy, Chiln loyc Quan so cdn di sau lam rd nguyen nhan sdu xa cua chinh sach codng quyen, bd quyin, chu nghTa ddn tdc cyc doan vd nhong tham vgng vd ly v l chu quyin, lanh t h i , . . ; dong thdi, cd edl nhin thdu dao va cdn nguyfn cua cdc cufc chiln tranh doyc x u i t phat to
TAP CHi QU6C PHdNG TOAN DAN SO 12/2014 115
nhong biln ddng chinh trj, sy phan hda, mdu thuln trong npi bg cac dang phdi, phe nhdm ehinh trj cQa edc node ndy. Ben cgnh dd, cOng c i n chl ra nguydn nhan chu quan ciia ta vdi nh&ng hgn c h l trong cdng tae qudn ly, bdo v f chO quyin bien gidi; trong xdy dyng lyc loyng, t h i trgn phdng thu, h f thing chinh trj, ddi s i n g nhan dan vd tinh hinh an ninh chinh trj, trgt ty, an todn xa h f i tren khu vyc bien gidi, v.v. Trdn ca sd dd, d y bdo doi toyng, myc dich, tinh chit, quy md chien tranh; m i i quan h f cua chiln tranh bien gidl vdi chien tranh xdm l i n biln, dao; xac djnh myc tidu, d l x u i t phoang eham cht dgo, phoang thirc t i l n hdnh, nghf thudt tdc chiln phu hgp vdi t&ng d l i toang cy t h i , kidn quylt ddnh thing xung dft, chiln tranh xdm l i n bien gidi trong thdi gian ngin nhit, k i t hgp chgt che vdi tien edng ehinh tq, ngogi giao, phap ly,... khdng d l chiln tranh biing phat, lan rfng, kdo dai.
Chiin tranh m^ng li hinh thii chiin tranh m&i, d§ vi dang diin ra trin pham vi toin ciu.
Mgc dO, cdn ed nhong y kiln khde nhau, nhong phdn ldn edc quan d i l m d i u thong nhit cho ring, ddy la cufc chiln tranh khfng khdi sung, nhong s y lan tmyln vd tdc dfng cOa no khdng h i nhd doi vdl todn xa hfi. Cufc xung d f t gioa Pa-ie-xtin vdi l-xra-en keo ddi nhieu nam di phdt trien sang ITnh vye chien tranh mang, khi cdc "chiln binh cdng nghf" a i a Pa-te-xtin va l-xra-en ddng logt md cac cufe edng kich cdc ea sd mang ciia nhau. Nam 2001, sau vg dgng d f gioa mdy bay trinh sdt Difn t& EP-3 ciia My vdi mdy bay chien d i u cOa Trung QuIe dd Idm bung phdt cufc chien tranh mang gi&a hai node. Tilp do, sau s y kifn "ngdy 11-9" la eupc tiln cfng gl&a "chiln binh cflng nghf" ciia My vd "chiln binh cfng nghf" cua cac t l chirc khung bd d nhieu nai frdn t h i gidi. Ndm 2007, eac "chien binh cflng nghf"
da t i l n cdng Chinh phii difn t& cua E-xtd-ni-a gay r i i loan xa h f i trong mdt thdi gian, tgo bdu khdng khi chiln tranh bao tnim cd node, v.v. Liic ndy, nhllu q u i c gia nhfn thdy nguy ca thyc sy Idn t&
hinh thdi d i l l n tranh nay, hp da coi tac chiln mgng Id m f t myc tieu trgng tdm chuyin d l i ciia chiln loyc quan s y t h i k j XXI. Bdi vgy, nhilu
quoc gia g I p nit xdy dyng hpc thuyit. hoach djnh ehlln loyc, phdt triln lyc loyng; t l choc nhilu cugc d i l n tgp quy md ldn nhim sdn sdng d l i phd vd t i l n hdnh chiln tranh mgng. D l i vdi node ta, ehlln franh mgng da, dang Id m f t nguy ca thipdng tnj'c, de dpa sy nghifp x f y dyng vd BVTQ. D l d l i phd thing lyi hinh th&c chiln tranh ndy, d phgm vi Chiln loyc Quan s y cd t h i triln khai nghifn cou ky dgc d i l m , iinh hinh, nguyfn nhdn, dieu kifn, d l i toang, lyc loyng, phoang tifn, phoang thoc tien hanh chiln tranh ciia (Tich;
phan tieh Idm rd thyc trgng lyc loyng, phoang tifn, khd ndng d l i phd ciia ta vd dy kiln nh&ng hgu qua xdy ra d l i vdi d i t node. Trfn ca s d dd, khin truang xdy dyng, hodn thdnh van kifn
"Chiln loyc Chiln tranh thfng tin", Idm ea sd phdt friln ly lugn v l chiln tranh vd tac chiln mgng. Trong d i l u kifn mdi cCia so nghifp BVTQ, c i n coi tdc chiln mgng Id logi hinh tdc chiln chiln loyc th& 6 trong ly lugn tdc chiln chiln loyc a i a nghf thuft quan sy Vift Nam. Vi vfy, thdi gian tdi, c i n cd k l hogch triln khai sdm, doa nhong n f i dung ndy vdo choang trinh huln luyfn, gido dye trong h f thing nhd tardng trong vd ngodi Qudn d f i nham ndng cao nhan th&c, k i l n thoc, nang lyc d i u tranh eho edc bg, ngdnh, dja phoang vd todn ddn, nhit la cho LLVT. Trfn ca sd dd, can d i u to xdy dyng k l hoach, phdt triln lyc loyng tdc chiln mgng chuydn frdch thdnh m f t binh chiing tac ehiln d f e bift, Idm ndng c i t cho todn ddn tham gia, s i n sang d l i phd khdng d l bj d f n g b i t ngd.
Nghifn c&u phdt triln nh&ng v i n d l v l C h i l n loyc Quan so BVTQ la nhifm vg quan trgng, khd khdn, ph&c tgp cd phgm vi rfng, lifn quan d i n nhilu ITnh vyc, nhilu cap, nhllu ngdnh vd dja phoang. Vi v f y , ben cgnh s y quan tam lanh dgo, chi dgo cCia Qudn Ciy Trung oang vd Thu tm'dng B f Q u i c phdng, r i t can cd sy p h l i hyp cua cdc c a quan, dan vj, cdc hgc vifn, nha trodng, ciing vdl s y tham gia cua d f l ngu cdn b f chi huy tham mou chiln loyc, cac nhd khoa hgc trong vd ngoai Qudn d f i d l i vdi nhifm vg quan trgng ndy, gdp p h i n ddp &ng y f u c i u BVTQ trong tinh hinh mdi. •>
TAP CHiQUdC PHdNG TOAN DAN S6 12/2014