CAC YEU TO ANH HlTOfNG DEN KHA NANG TRA NO CUA KHACH HANG CA NHAN TAI NGAN HANG
CHINH SACH XA HOI TINH LONG AN
• TRAN HOANG KHAI (*) TOM TAT
Thong qua kit qud nghien cu-u, bdi viit xdc dinh cdc yeu to dnh huang den khd ndng trd ng cita khdch hdng cd nhdn tai Ngdn hdng Chinh sdch xd hoi (NHCSXH) tinh Long An. Tren ca sa do, phdn tich cdc yeu to dnh huang vd xem xet muc do dnh huang din khd ndng trd ng cua khdch hdng.
Tit do de xudt vd khuyen nghi nhdm ndng cao khd ndng trd ng cua khdch hdng tai NHCSXH tinh Long An.
Tu-khoa: NHCSXH, khd nang trd ng.
SUMMARY
Through the research results, the article identifies the factors affecting the solvency of individual customers at the Bankfor Social Policies (VBSP) in Long An Province. On that basis, the article analyzing the factors affecting and considering the extent of the influence on customers's solvency. Since then, recommendations and recommendations to improve the repayment capacity of customers at VBSP Long An province.
Key words: VBSP, solvency.
1. Dat van de
Trong nhirng nam qua, hd ngheo va cac ddi tugng chinh sach ludn dugc Dang va Nha nudc ta dau tu nhigu chuang trinh, chinh sach de phat trien kinh te, cham lo ddi sdng vat chat va tinh than.
Cac chinh sach nay da tao dieu kien cho ngudi ngheo va eac doi tu'gng chinh sach khac tigp can nguon von tin dung im dai ciia Nha nudc de cai thien va tiing budc nang cao dieu kien song, tao su chuyen bien manh me, toan dien d cac viing ngheo, vung ddng bao dan tde thieu sd.
Viec thuc hien nghign ciiu khach hang, nhan biet cac ygu td anh hudng den kha nang tra ng ciia khach hang mang tinh chit klioa hgc, dinh lugng la ygu cau cap bach trong viec giii viing chat Iugng tin dung chinh sach, dam bao an toan ngudn vdn va tai san cua nha nudc, gdp phan hoan thanh dinh hudng viec thuc hien chign lugc phat trien NHCSXH tdi nam 2020.
2. Mo hinh nghien cmi
H = a + p,Xi+ P2X2+ P3X3+ P4X4+PSX5+ P6X6+ P7X7 + PsXs + P9X9 + E Trong do:
• H; la kha nang tra ng vay cua khach hang ca nhan (Y nhan gia tri bang 1 neu khach hang ca nhan co kha nang tra ng va bing 0 ngu khach hang ca nhan khong cd kha nang tra ng). Day la bien phu thugc va dugc xac dinh tren ca sd phan loai theo danh gia kha nang tra ng ciia khach hang dinh ky 3 nam /lin.
• a: He sd chan phan anh miic do anh hudng ciia cac ygu td kbac dgn chi tigu phan tich.
• pi (i ^ 1 ,k) he sd udc lugng, he sd nay phan anh muc dd anh hudng ciia timg nhan to dgn bign giai thich.
Xi,X2,X3,X4,X5,X6,X7,X8,X9: la cac bien ddc lap.
E : sai sd udc lugng
Tir md hinh nghien cuoi tren, dg xuit cac gia thuygt cac yeu td anh hudng dgn kha nang tra ng cua khach hang ca nhan tai NHCSXH tinh Long An nbu sau:
XI: Trinh do hgc v i n ddng bign vdi kha nang tra ng cua khach hang.
X2: Thdi ban cho vay ddng bign vdi kha nang tra ng cua khach hang.
(*^ ITiic viSo Cao hgc Tnifmg DH KTCN Long An TAP CHI KINH TE - CONG NGHffiP
NGHIEN CUU - TRAO DOI
X3: s l tiln vay ddng biln vdi kha nang tra na cua khach hang.
X4; Sd ngudi phu thudc nghich bien vdi klia nang tra na cua khach hang.
X5: Sd lin giam sat vdn vay d i n g biln vdi kha nang tea ng cua khach hang.
X6: Hinh thiic cho vay ddng biln vdi kha nang tra na cita khach hang.
X7: s l chuang ninh cho vay ding biln vdi kha nang na no ctia khaeh hang.
X8: Tudi tac d i n g biln vdi kha nang tra no ciia khach hang. ^ .x ,.
X9: Thu nhap binh quiin timg ho gia dinh ciia khaeh hang vay vdn trong nam ddng bien vdt kha nang tra no ciia khach hang.
3, Ket qua nghien cmi
Thuc hien phan tich hdi quy Binary Logistic duac ket qua sau:
Bang torn tat kit qua hli quy Binary Logistic cua mo hinh nghiSn cihi Variables in the Equation
trinhdo thoihan sotien songuoi
Step I'' giamsat chuongt rinh thunhap Consta nt
/?
,344 ,036 ,000
,526
,479
,819 ,000 ,503
S.E.
,061 ,007 ,000 ,162
,149
,209 ,000 ,668
Wald
32,070 24,606 4,023 10,592
10,304
15,408 7,795 ,566
df
1 1 1 I
1
1 1 I
Sig.
,000 ,000 ,045 ,001
,001
,000 ,005 ,452
Exp(
B)
1,411 1,037 1,000 ,591
,620
,441 1,000 1,653
9 5 % EXP(B) Lower 1,253 1,022 1,000 ,430
,463
,293 1,000
C.I.for
Upper 1,590 1,052 1,000 ,811
,830
,664 1,000
Nguon: tong licrp tir ket qua fioi quy Binaiy Logistic Tu kgt qua phan tich hdi quy Logistic, gia tri miic y nghta ciia Sig ciia cac bign dgu cd gia tri
<0,05 nen cac bien dgc lap trong mo binh hoi quy Binary Logistic cd mdi hrong quan vdi bign phu thudc la muc do tang (giam) kha nang tra ng ciia khach hang. Mirc y nghia thdng kg cua cac he s6 hoi quy trgn dgu cd do tin cay trgn 95%, dau ciia cac he sd h6i quy phii hgp vdi mong dgi.
Kiem dinh do chinh xac ciia dir bao cho thiy 82 khach hang khdng cd kha nang tra ng, mo hinh da du doan diing 52 hg, chigm 63,4% va trong 415 hd cd kha nang tea ng vay md hinh da du doan dung 406 hg chiem 97,8%. Ty le du doan dimg ciia toan md hinh la 92,2%.
Bang Kiim dinh tinh chinh xac trong du' bao cua mo hinh Classification Table^
Predicted
Kha nang tra no cua khach
hang Percenta:
Correct
CtU 1} •-
step 1
Khong CO kha nang Kha nang tra no
° tra no cua khach hang
Co kha nang tra no Overall Percentage
Khong co kba nang tra no
52
9
Co kha nang tra no
30
406
63,4
97,8
92,2
Kgt qua phan tich cac bien ciia md hinh cd 7 bign ddc lap anh hudng dgn kha nang tra ng cd y nghia thong kg. Trong dd bign hinh do, thdi ban vay, sd ngudi phu thudc, miic do giam sat, s6 chuang hinh cho vay, thu nhap binh quan timg hg ciia khach hang cd y nghia thSng kg d muc 1%;
so tign vay co y nghia thdng ke d mirc 5%.
Ve chigu tac ddng cua cac bien dgc lap nbu sau: trinh do hgc vin, thdi han cho vay, sd tign cho vay, thu nhap binh quan timg hd cd mdi quan he thuan chigu. Bign sd ngudi phu thugc, miic do giam sat vdn vay, sd chuang trinh cho vay cd mdi quan he ngugc chigu, digu nay pbii bgp vdi du doan ciia tac gia. Tuy nhien, van tdn tai 2 bign ngugc vdi ky vgng la mirc do giam sat va sd chuong hinh cho vay.
Trong cac bign anh hudng den kha nang tra ng, bien sd chuang trinh cho vay (chuongtrinh) CO anh hudng manh nhat va cac bign cdn lai theo tbii tu la sd ngudi phu thugc (songuoi), trinh do hgc van (trinhdo), mirc do giam sat vdn vay (giamsat), thdi ban vay (thoihan), so tien vay (sotien), thu nhap (thunhap) chi tigt cu thg nhu sau:
Vai trd anh hirdng cac bien trong mo hinb
STT
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Bien
trinhdo thoihan sotien songuoi giamsat chuongtrinh thunhap
fi
,344 ,036 ,000 -,526 -,479 -,819 ,000
EXP(B)
1,411 1,037 1,000 ,591 ,620 ,441 1,000
Xac xuat ban (lau P0=10%
PI 13,57 10,33 10 6,15 6,45 4,66 10
T6C aa
tang (giam)%
3,57 0,33 0 -3,85 -3,55 -5,34 0
Vi tri iinh hudng
3 5 6 2 4 1 7
Nguon • liic gid III linh loan
Dir bao ciia md hinh hdi quy Logistic: Tir bang sl lieu tren va tir kit qua phan tich hdi quy Logistic, tac gia dua ra phuang trinh tuang quan Logistic theo hudng nliu sau:
Y= 0,503+0.344 * trinhdo + 0,036 * thoihan + 0,000 * sotien -0,526 • songuoi - 0,479 * giamsat -0,819 * chuongtrinh + 0,000 * thunhap.
4. Kit luan
TAP CHI KINH TE - CONG NGHIEP
NGHIEN CUU - TRAO DOI
Kgt qua hdi quy cbo thiy nhung ygu td chinh cd thg lam anh hudng dgn kha nang tra ng vay ciia khach hang bao gdm: ^. ,.
- Thii nhit la sd chuang trinh cho vay, day la cbinh sach hd trg ciia Chinh phu doi vai ho ngheo va cac ddi hrgng cbinh sach gdp phin trong cdng tac giam ngheo, giai quyet viec lam va an sinh xa hgi.
- Thii hai la s6 ngudi phu thugc, tuy sd lieu cho thiy ring s6 n p d i phu thudc^trong gia dinh cae khach hang phdng vin la kbdng cao, nhung kit qua hdi quy van cho thay bign nay cd anh hudng.
- Thii ba la trinb do hgc vin, qua phan tich cho thiy trinh do bgc v i n cua khach hang khong cao, chi CO binh quan 6,29 nam.
- Thii hr la so lin giam sat vdn vay ciia can bd hdi, doan thg, td trudng td tigt kiem va vay vin, can bd ngan hang giiip giam sat v i n vay va dam bao viec thu hdi ngudn vdn.
- Thii nam la thdi han tra ng, thdi gian vay cang dai thi khach hang cang tich luy dugc nhigu tign dg dam bao khoan ng vay khong bi qua ban.
- Thii sau la sd tign vay, ng vay cang nhieu thi khach hang cang cd nhigu ganh nang, nhigu trach nhiem va phai cd ging rat nhieu so vdi nhimg hd cd it ng vay.
- Thii bay la thu nhap binh quan cac hd gia dinh khach hang vay vdn, thu nhap cang thap thi kha nang tra dugc ng cang gap nhieu kho khan.
Nhu vay, cd nhieu nguyen nhan lam cho kha nang tra ng vay cua khach hang bi giam siit, lam cho cac khoan cho vay khach hang tai NHCSXH tinh Long An tang thgm phan rui ro. Do do, cin CO nhimg giai phap thich hgp dg han chg digu nay va lam cho cac khoan vay nay trd nen y nghia hem ddi vdi NHCSXH tinh Long An va khach bang.
Tai lieu tham khao ITi^ng Vi6t]
[1]. Bili Van Trinh, Nguyen Thi Thiiy Phuong, Phdn tich cdc yeu to dnh huong din hieu qud su dung von vay: Trudng hap cua ho ngheo tren dia bdn tinh Soc Trdng, Tap chi Phat trien va Hoi nhap, Sd 19, Trang 87.
[2]. Hoang Trieu Huy, Phan Dinh Khdi (2014), Cdc nhdn to dnh huang din khd nang tiip can nguon von tin dung chinh thicc cua ho sdn xudt a tinh Hdu Giang, Tap chi Kboa hgc Dai hgc Hug, S6 2, nam 2014.
[3], Trucmg Ddng Ldc, Nguyen Thanh Binh (2011), Cdc nhdn td dnh huang din khd ndng tJ-d no vay dimg hqn ciia nong ho tinh Hdu Giang, Tap chi Cdng nghe Ngan bang, sd 64, nam 2011.
[Tieng Anh]
[4]. Awunyo-Vitor, Dadson (2012), Determinants of loan repayment default among farmers in Ghana, Joumal of Development and Agricultural Economics, November 2012, Vol. 4, pp. 339-345.
Ngay nhan: 06/6/2018 Ngay duyet dang: 09/9/2019