Khung phan tich vd tac dong cua chi ngan sach nha nuoc den tang trumig nganh ndng nghidp Viet Nam
Nguyin Ttong K h ^ Vu Ngan sach Nha nuoc, BO Tai chinh
Bai vidt nay bdt dau bang viec luge khao cac ly thuyet ve tang tmdng kinh te, mdi quan he giiia ehi ngan sach tac ddng ddn tang trudng kinh te va ling dung thuc nghiem eiia nd trong kinh te' hidn dai. Tren ea sd dd nghien ciiu tidn hanh xay dung khung phan tieh cde eau thanh trong ngudn vdn ehi NSNN cho ndng nghiep ed dnh hudng ddn tang trudng ciia nganh nay. Khung phdn tieh nay dimg lai trong pham vi xay dung md hinh khai nidm, cdn vide do ludng d miie dd djnh lugng eho ngudn chi NSNN eho ndng nghiep trong dieu kidn Viet Nam nd anh hudng nhu the ndo ddn tang trudng cua nganh se duac edng bd d eac bai vidt khac.
1. Cac ly thuyet chung ve tang trudng kinh te Md hinh kinh td cd didn chi ra rdng: Ydu td ca bdn ciia tdng trudng kinh td la dat dai, lao dgng va vdn, trong do dat dai la yeu td quan trgng nhat, la gidi han eua su tang trudng. Ddng thdi, trudng phdi nay edn nhdn manh rdng hoat ddng cua cac chii thd kinh td bi chi phdi bdi ban tay vd hinh hay "co che thi trudng", phu nhan vai trd eua nha nude, va eho rang day la can trd cho phat tridn kinh te.
Md hinh tan ed dien ve tang trudng kinh te: Ben canh mdt sd quan didm ve tang trudng kinh te tuong ddng cting trudng phai cd didn nhu su tu dieu tiet eiia ban tay vd hinh, md hinh nay nhdn manh vai trd dac biet quan trong eiia vdn.
MO hinh eua Keynes vd tang trudng kinh td: Nhan manh vai trd eua tdng cau trong xdc dinh san luang ciia nen kinh td. Sau khi phdn tich cac xu hudng bidn ddi eiia tieu ddng, tidt kiem, dau tu, va anh hudng ciia chiing den tdng cdu, khdng dinh can thuc hidn nhieu bien phap de nang cao tdng eau va vide lam trong xa hdi. Md hinh ciia Keynes nhdn manh vai trd dieu tiet ciia nha nude thdng qua eac chinh sdch kinh te. Theo Keynes, de dam bao su can bang kinh te, khac phuc that nghiep, khung hoang va duy hi tang trudng kinh te thi khdng thd dua vao co ehe thi tmdng tu dieu tiet, ma cdn phdi cd su can thidp eua nha nude vao nen kinh te' dd tdng eau ed hieu qua, kieh thich tieu dung, sdn xuat, kieh thich dau tu dd bao dam viec lam va tang thu nhap.
Md hinh tang trudng kinh td hidn dai cua P.A.
Samuelson-hon hgp: Sau mdt thdi gian dp dung md hinh kinh te ehi huy eua Keynes, qua nhan manh tdi vai hd ban tay hiiu hinh ciia nha nude thdng qua cac chinh sach kinh td vl md, han chd ban tay vd hinh, tao hd ngai cho qua trinh tang tmdng. Cdc nhd kinh td hgc cua hudng phdi hon hgp ling hd vide xay dung mdt
nfen kinh te h6n hgp. Tren thuc td, hau het eac qudc gia tren the gidi ddu dp dung md hinh kinh td hdn hap d nhimg miie dp khac nhau, vi the , day dugc col la md hinh tang trudng kinh td hien dai- Thdng nhat vdi md hinh kinh td tan c6 didn, md hinh kinh td hgc hidn dai cho rang, tdng muc eung cua nen kinh te duge xde dinh bdi cde yeu td dau vao eiia qua trinh san xudt, dd la tdi nguyen, lao ddng, vdn, khoa hoe cdng nghe.
Thdng nhat vdi kieu phdn tich eua ham san xudt Cobb-Douglass ve su tac ddng ciia cac ydu t5 tren vdi tang trudng. Cae nha kinh td hgc hien dai eung thdng nhat vdi md hinh Harrod-Domar ve vai trd tidt kldm va vdn ddu tu trong tang trudng kinh td. Chinh vi the, nhidu ngudi eho rang md hinh kinh te hdn hgp la su xich lai gan nhau ciia hgc thuyet kinh td tan cd dien va hgc thuydt kinh td' eua Keynes.
2. Cac nghien cihi thirc nghiem ve quan he giira chi NSNN vol tang trmhig nganh nong nghiep
Trdn ea sd vdn dung ly thuyet ehung ve tang trudng kinh te, trong cdc nghidn eihj d cdc tnrdng hgp nen kinh te khdc nhau cho thay nhiing kdt qud khdng ddng nhat dd la tac ddng duong va dm ciia chi NS ddn tang trudng, Nghien cuu eua Aigheyisi (2013) sii dung dd lieu ehuol thdi gian 32 nam cho thay tdng ehi tieu va ehi tieu hien tai tae ddng tieh cue ddn tang tmdng GDP eiia Nigeria, cung cd y nghia thdng ke trong dai han.
Nghien cihj eiia Gemmell, Kneller & Sanz (2015) da sii dung nhieu md hinh hdi quy d Nigeria trong giai doan 1970 vd 2011, cung cho ket qud ve mdi quan he tieh cue trong dai han giQa chi tidu cdng va tang trudng kinh te d Nigeria, didu nay eung phii hgp vdi ly thuyet vd chinh sach tai khda ciia Keynes..
Gan day, Lahimshan va Gunasekara (2015) da nghidn ciiu su dung du lidu bang dieu khidn giua 9 qudc gia chau A bdng ky thuat hop nhat; hidu img ed
NGHIEN CUU
RESEARCH
dinh va thii nghidm Nhan qua (Nhiing qudc gia nay bao gdm Tmng Qud'c, Nhat Bdn, Han Qudc, Singapore, Thai Lan, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, An Dd va Bhutan). Nguydn Phi Lan (2009) dua hen 1>' thuyet tang hudng kinh td ndi sinh va ly thuyet tai khda, md hinh ve mdi quan hd giua tang trudng kinh td va phan cdp quan ly tai khda, da tim ra mdi quan h^ giira phan cdp tdi khda va tang trudng kinh td t^i dia phuang cua 64 tinh thanh phd ciia Vidt Nam hong hai giai doan rieng bidt 1997 - 2001 va 2002 - 2007. Nhung phdt hien thuc nghiem cho thdy tac ddng tieh cue dang ki cua chi Ueu ehinh phu ddi vdi tang trudng GDP d khu vuc chau A. Nhiing phat hidn nay, ndi chung, ddp ling ky vgng ve ket qua cOa ehi tieu cSng eho tang trudng.
Tren thuc td, mgi qudc gia mdi ndi hoac cdng nghiep hda deu mong dgi kdt qua tich cue tu ehi tieu cua hg cho su tang trudng cua qude gia.
3. Khung ly thuyet ve tac dong cua nguon von chi NSNN cho tang tmdng ndng nghiep
Mae dii md hinh kinh te hoe eua Keynes trong thue td ap dung tai cde trudng hgp cac nude cho thay khdng phai luc nao "ban tay huu hinh" cung phat huy tdt veil trd ciia nd. Tuy nhidn, tai cac nude dang phat tridn, d nhirng khu vuc kinh te thieu hut ngudn vdn va khoa hge ky thu^t nhu nganh ndng nghiep, viec can thiep ciia Nha nude thong qua cde ehuong trinh ddu tu vdn la vo eung quan trgng, va thudng dem l^i nhijng kdt qud tich cue. Chi cd su hg giiip ciia Nha nude trong phat trien cdng nghiep dieh vu ndng thdn thi mdi ed su chuydn dich co cdu kinh td didn ra tren dien rdng d khu vuc ndng thdn. Day la giai phap khdng the thieu dugc cho vide tgo thdm nhidu viec lam tai chd;
tao thuan Ig' .ho luu thdng hang hod; gdp phdn nang cao ddi sdng vdt chdt va tinh thdn cho ndng dan; ddy nhanh tdc dp trlrig trudng kinh te va phat tri^n kinh td bdn viing.
Hon nua, hi^n tgi d Viet nam cung da cd nhidu dd tai nghien cihi ve linh vuc ndng nghidp, trong dd cd cae nghien ciiu vd nhan td tac dgng den tang trudng ndng nghiep. Cac nghidn cuu ciing chi ra "ngudn vdn"
la ydu td ed anh hudng quan trong tdi tang trudng eiia nganh ndng nghidp. Nhung "ngudn vdn" chu ydu mdi duge nhin nhan dudi gdc do tdng thd la vdn ddu tu cua toan xa hdi cho nganh ndng nghiep. Cdn nh&ng nghidn euu tap tmng vao tac ddng rieng biet cua ngudn vdn tir ngdn sdch nhd nude cho linh vuc ndng nghiep cdn rdt thidu, hon nua cung ehua xay dung mdt md hinh phan tieh dinh lugng. Vi vay, day la co sd de tae gld xay di/ng khung phan tich ve tae ddng ciia ngudn vdn ehi NSNN eho tang hudng n6ng nghiep trong truang hc?p eiia Vidt Nam. Cac nhan td duae xac dinh khi dua vao khung phan tich bao gdm 6 nhan td sau ddy:
Thu nhat, Chi NSNN cho dau tu phat tridn tac ddng tieh cue ddn tdng trudng ndng nghiep: Chi ddu tu phat
hidn la nhOng khoan chi mang tinh chdt tich l^JV P*^*^
vu cho qua trinh tai san xudt md r6ng gdn vdi viec xay dung CO sd h^ tdng nhdm tao ra moi trudng va oieu kien thuan Igi eho viec bo v6n ddu tu ciia c^c doanh nghiep vdo cae linh vuc edn Uiidt, phu hgP ^c" ^^^
tieu cua nen kinh td. Chidm ti trong phdn Idn trong chi ddu tu phdt tridn chinh la chi ddu tu xdy dgng ca ban.
Ddu tu cho eo sd h^ tdng ndng nghidp nhu thuy Igi, de dieu, kien cd hda kenh muong, quan trdc khi hrang...se giiip cho he thdng ca sd ha tdng dugc xdy dung, sua chua vd ndng cdp phyc vu tdt han cho phdt trien ndng nghidp. Ddi vdi sdn xuat ndng nghidp, vdi cae he thdng thuy Igi hidn ed eiia Viet Nam, tdng nang luc tudi ciia toan he thdng da bao dam cho khoang 90% didn tieh ddt canh tdc, hong dd didn tich ddt hdng Ilia dugc tudi d^t 7,482 trieu ha, 1,6 tridu ha rau mau, edy cdng nghidp ngdn ngay va cay dugc lidu, ngSn man cho 0,87 tridu ha, cai tao chua phdn 1,6 tridu ha, tieu nude cho tren 1,72 trieu ha ddt ndng nghiep va edp khoang 6 ty m3 nude phuc vu sinh ho^t vd cong nghiep. Vdi con sd thue td nay, tdc gia dua ra gia thi^t eho khung phan tieh: nhdn to' chi NSNN cho dau tu phat trien ed tac ddng h'ch cue den tdng trudng ndng nghiep Vidt Nam.
Thu hai, Chi NSNN eho KHCN cOa nganh ndng nghiep: KHCN hien ddng gdp trdn 30% gld tri gia tang trong sdn xuat ndng nghiep Viet Nam. Cde khoan chi dau tuvao KHCN trong ndng nghiep se tao ra dgng luc phdt tri^n ndn ndng nghiep chat lugng eao va b^n vung, gdn vdi bao ve mdi trudng sinh thdi, tde ddng vao he thdng cdng nghidp phuc vu sdn xudt ndng nghiep lam tang nang sudt, chdt lugng va hieu qua kinh doanh ndng nghiep, phat tridn ngudn nhan luc phuc vu ndng nghiep, ndng thdn. Vi vdy, chi NSNN cho KHCN ciia nganh ndng nghidp cOng Id mdt nhdn td tac ddng tich cue dd'n tSng trudng ndng nghidp.
Thir ba, Chi NSNN cho gido due dao tao ciia ngdnh ndng nghiep: Vdi muc Ueu hudng tdi mdt nen ndng nghidp hien dai, thi nganh NN Viet Nam phdi ehudn bi sdn sdng eac ydu td dap ling dugc vdi su phat trien cua khoa hge ky thuat trong dd yeu td ddu tien phai k^
den la con ngudi. Ddy la khoan chi ma tdm quan trgng ciia nd la nhdm nang cao dan tri, trinh d6 chuyen mdn ky thuat cua mgi ngudi dan trong xa hdi noi chung va ngdnh ndng nghidp ndi ridng, gdp phdn thuc ddy tang trudng kinh td, tdng hudng nganh. Ddu tu vao nghien ciiu nong nghiep vd may mdc mdi va hat giong cdi tien mdi cd thd cd dnh hudng tich cue ddn tang trudng n6ng nghiep. Ndng dan dia phuang cd thg cai thien nang suat cua hg ndu ho ap dung vife su dung cong nghd mdi, do dd thuc ddy tang trudng nong nghiep trong tuong lai. Chi NSNN cho giao dye dao i^o none nghidp la nhan td quan trgng ed thd tac dgng den tang trudng nganh ndng nghiep.
Thii tu, Chi NSNN cho ho trg gid san phdm nghiep: "Trg gia (price support) la phuong tien dg nSng
\A t C H A U A - T H A I I
trg thu nhdp cho mdt sd nha san xudt bang cdch sii dung cdc bien phap hanh chinh de duy tri gid ban sdn phdm eiia hg cao han mire gid thj trudng. Hidn nay nhieu nude su dyng hd thdng trg gid dd hd hg cho nganh ndng nghidp thdng qua vide ddm bao miic thu nhdp hgp ly cho ndng ddn" (Nguyen Van Nggc, 20()6)[151. Tuy nhidn, cdc dieu kidn thyc hien eae bien phdp binh dn gia vdn theo y cOa cac can bd nha nude.
Cae bidn phap cd thd dugc ap dung khi gia thj trudng tang hoac giam "bdt hgp ly" so vdi su thay ddi chi phi san xudt, hoac la "khdng hgp ly" hong trudng hgp xay ra thien tai, djch bdnh, khiing hoang kinh td, v.v..., hoac anh hudng tidu cue den su dn dinh kinh te va xa hdi.
Thii nam. Can can thuong mai rdng cua nganh ndng nghiep: Mdi quan he giiia thuong mai rdng va tang trudng la mdt chii de eiia nhieu cude tranh ludn va tranh cai trong nhirng nam qua. Can cdn thuong mai thdp cho thdy nhi^u han chd Uiuong mgi d eae qudc gia, nhirng han ehe' nay dan den sdn xudt khdng hieu qua bang cdch khdng khuyen khich ndng ddn ddu tu ddi han. Nhiing han ehe hong thuong mai nhu cam xuat khdu mdt mat hdng nao dd se ngan cdn khu vuc tu nhan ddu tu vao ITnh vuc ndng nghidp thdng qua tidp thi cung dng ddu vao ciia edy trdng. Vl the, can cdn thuong mgi rdng se dugc xem xet den dua vdo md hinh phan tich.
Thii sau, Ddu tu tu nhan eho ngdnh ndng nghidp:
Hien nay, ngudn vdn ddu tu tu khu vuc tu nhdn vdo ndng nghidp mdi bat dau dugc quan tam nd rd, gdp phan bo sung nguon luc ve vdn va khoa hgc ky thuat cho linh vuc ndy. Tinh ridng 6 thdng ddu nam 2019, da cd 1.634 doanh nghiep ddu tu vao ndng nghidp, nang tdng sd doanh nghiep ndng nghiep cd nude Idn 10.988 dan vi. Chinh vi vay, nhan td ndy la mgt nhdn td quan hgng tae ddng ddn tang trudng ciia nganh ma chdng ta phai dua vao, va xem xet nd hong mdi tuong quan vdi cac nhan td thudc chi NSNN.
Trdn co sd phan tich va gia thiet d tren, tac gia dua ra md hinh tdc ddng eiia cdc 6 nhdn td trdn ddi va\
tang trudng cua nganh ndng nghiep nhu sau:
LnAGDPt= bO + blLnAGt -t- b2LnSTt + bSLnEt + b4LnPSPt + bSLnNTt + b6Ln!t + et
Trong dd:
(LnAGDPt) id logarit cua GDP ndng nghidp d giai doEin tai thdi didm t;
LnAGt: la logarit eua chi tieu ehinh phii cho ddu tu phdt tiidn ngdnh ndng nghidp tai thdi diem t
LnSTt: la logarit eiia chi tidu chinh phu cho khoa hge cdng nghe cua ngdnh ndng nghidp tgi thdi didm t LnEt: la logarit ciia chi tieu ehinh phii cho gido due ddo tao ciia ngdnh ndng nghidp tai thdi didm t
LnPSPt: la logarit chi tidu ehinh phu eho hd trg gia san pham ndng nghiep tai thdi didm t
LnNTt: la logarit can can thuong mgi rdng cOa
nganh ndng nghiep tai thdi diem t
Lnlt: la logarit dau tu tu nhdn cho nganh ndng nghidp tai then didm t
et la sai sd;
3. Ket Iuan
Sau khi luge khao cae ly Uiuyd't va eac nghidn euu tiiuc nghiem vd tac ddng ciia ehi NSNN den tang hudng, va ehi NSNN hong linh vuc ndng nghiep de'n tang tmdng eiia nga.ih, cho thdy nguon vdn NSNN chi cho ndng nghiep cd tac ddng tich euc den tang hudng cua nganh. Va cac nhan td edu thanh trong nguon ehi NSNN dugc gia thuyet la cd ddng gdp tich cue vao tang trudng.
Ddng thdi, khi nhu eau vd vdn va khoa hgc ky thuat ngdy cang eao thi hoat ddng thu hut vdn ngoai Nha nude eho linh vuc nay eung trd nen sdi ddng biic thiet, dong thdi hgi nhap qude te sau rdng khidn eho cdc hoat dgng lien quan den xudt nhap khau hang ndng san la hoat ddng chu luc quan trgng tac ddng den tang trudng nganh ndng nghiep. Do dd, eac nhdn td cd lien quan den ddu tu tu nhan, ean can thuong mai rdng cung sd dugc xem xet dua vao md hinh.
Tuy nhidn, khung phan tich dugc dd xudt mdi chi dimg lai d md hinh khai nidm, ehua dugc kiem ehiing trong bdi canh Viet Nam, dong thdi eac nhdn td dua vao md hinh cung chua xdy dung duge khung do ludng, do vSy cdn ed cac nghien eir' ~ nghiem de kiem chiing cdc mdi quan he ndy. ^"^ : NSNN eho nOng nghiep tdc ddng ed y nghia theo gia thuyet ciia khung phan ti'ch nay eho dieu kien Vidt Nam thi se cung edp mdt ludn cu la ndu eae khodn chi iVSNN eho ndng nghiep ndu dugc ddu tu ddng miie, minh bach se giiip cho vide quan ly NSNN dugc hieu qud hon, ndng cao hieu qua ngudn ehi ben canh vide phdi hgp cae ngudn luc khac./.
Tai lieu tham l(hao
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Nguyen Phi Ldn (2009). "Co ehe truy^n ddn tien te dudi goi. dp phdn tieh dinh lugng", Vu Du bao, thdng ke tien te • NHNN.
K I N H T t C H A U A - T H A I