Ddng Thi Thuy Linh, Le Minh Dong. Quan he thuang mgi...
Quan he thirong mai Mong Co - Trung Quoc du-ol thoi Tap Can Binh
Dong Thi Thiiy Linh*, Le Minh Ddng**
Vien Nghien cdu An Dd vd Tdy Nam A *, Vien Nghien cicu Ddng Bac A Ngdynhgnbdi: 07/11/2018. ngdy gCii phdn bien: 12/11/2018, ngdy duyel dang: 30/11/2018
JT^e tic khi Tap Can Binh chinh thicc tra thdnh Chu tieh nudc Cgng hda Ddn chu Nhdn ddn J.\. Trung Hoa, quan he thuang mgi Mdng Cd vd Trung Qudc buac sang mgt giai dogn mdi vd bi chi phdi bai nhiiu yeu td. Tuy nhien, bdi nghien cicu se tap trung vdo ba nhdn td md tdc gid cho Id quan trgng do la ehinh sdch eoi trgng cdc nudc Idng gieng cua Trung Qudc, chinh sdch nudc Idng gieng thd 3 eua Mdng Cd vd cdc ddc diem tu nhien cua Mdng Cd. Hien nay, Bdc Kinh Id ddi tde thuong mai vd nhd ddu tu nudc ngodi lan nhdt cua Ulan Bator. Tic ndm 2007 din ndm 2014, thicang mai giUa hai nudc Trung Qudc vd Mdng Cd da tdng tic 2,03 ty USD ndm 2007 len den 6.41 ty USD ndm 2017 vd Mdng Cd ludn cd thdng du thuang mgi vdi Trung Qudc. Ty trong kim nggch thuang mai giiia hai nudc trong tdng kim nggch thuang mgi cua Mdng Cd vdi the gidi ciing chiem mice do khd cao (tren 50%) trong giai dogn 2010-2017. Dieu ndy cho thdy mice do phu thude ve thuang mgi vdo ddi tde Trung Qudc cua Mdng Cd a mice do khd cao.
Tir khoa: Tap Can Binh, Mdng Cd, Trung Qudc, quan he thucmg mai
Mddau
Mdng Cd la nudc nudc lang gieng cd dudng bien gidi rdng Idn vdi Trung Quoc d khu vyc Dong Bac A. Sy le thudc kinh te hoan toan vdo nudc lang gieng Trung Qudc vd Lien Bang Nga d thdi ki trudc Chien tranh Lanh da cd sy thay doi ke tir khi Mdng Cd dua ra chinh sach
"nudc lang gieng thii 3 " la nguyen tac ca ban xuyen suot va dugc the Men ro ttong van ban mang ten Khai niem Chinh sach Doi ngoai va Khai niem An ninh Qudc gia dugc thong qua nam 1994. Nam 2012, Tap Can Binh len nam quyen trd thanh Tdng bi thu Dang Cong San Trung Quoc va khoang 4 thang sau dd ong chinh thiic dugc bdu lam chu tjch nudc, chinh thiic hoan thanh qua ttinh chuyen giao quyen lyc 10 nam mdt lan tai Trung Qudc. Quan he kinh te Mdng Cd - Trung Qudc budc sang mgt giai doan mdi vdi mgt nen tang tdt nhung ciing
*dong[[email protected]
cdn rat nhieu khd khan va thach thiic cd ben trong ldn ben ngoai khi Mdng Co quylt tam trien khai chinh sach nudc "lang gieng thii 3"
nham md rdng radi quan he kinh t l ra thi gidi, tai can bang sy phu thudc kinh t l vao hai nudc lang gilng Trung Qudc va Nga.
1. Mgt so nhSn to tac dpng den quan he thuong msii Mong Co - Trung Quoc
Quan he thucmg mai giira Mdng Cd va Trung QuIc dugc tdc dpng bdi rat nhilu ylu tl, tuy nhien bai vilt se tap trung phan tich ba nhan td tdc dpng chinh dd la su thay ddi chi'nh sdch ke tir khi Tap Can Binh len ndm chinh quyln, chinh sach cua Mdng Cd hien nay va ban thdn ndi tai nen kinh t l Mdng Cd.
Chinh sdch coi trgng ede nudc Idng giing eua Trung Qude
Ke tir sau Dai hgi XVIII Dang Cdng san Tmng Quoc, chinh sach d i i vdi nudc lang Nghien cuu An Do va Chau A. So 12 - 2018, tt.48-56
Dong Thi Thiiy Linh, Le Minh Dong. Quan he thuang mai..
gieng cang dugc coi trpng va da cd nhung dieu chinh so vdi trudc. Tir chd xem quan he ngoai giao vdi cac nudc Idn la quan trgng nhdt trong do My la uu tien sd 1, tir khi chu tich Tap Can Binh ndm quyen, quan he vdi cdc nudc lang gieng dugc quan tam han va dugc dat gdn nhu ngang vdi cac nudc Idn. Viec Tnmg Qudc quyet djnh uu tien quan he vdi cac nudc lang gieng dugc Tap Can Binh dua ra trong de cuong dudng hudng dudi dang khudn kho chung trong budi be mac Hgi nghi Cdng tac Ddi ngoai Trung uong, bao trudc mdt sy thay doi ldn trong ngoai giao nudc nay. Ben canh do, thang 10/2013, Tmng Qudc da td chiic Hdi nghi ldn nhat ve ngoai giao lang gieng tic trudc den nay vdi sy tham gia cua cac Dai su Trung Qudc tai cac nudc lang gieng, tdt ca cac Uy vien Thudng vu Bd Chinh trj Dang Cdng san Tnmg Qudc. Qua dd CO the thdy ro Tnmg Qudc coi trpng quan he vdi cac nudc lang gieng nham tao mdi trudng xung quanh thuan lgi cho phat trien dat nudc.
Hpi nghi nay da tai khang djnh rang Trung Quoc dang can mgt mdi trudng ben ngoai dn djnh de tao thudn lgi cho nhiing cai each kinh te trong nudc. Hien nay, Trung Qudc dang tim each sira chiia mdt sd sai lam trong cMnh sach ciia minh ddi vdi cac nudc lang gieng trong nhung nam qua, tang cudng anh hudng chung cua Trung Qudc tai khu vyc xung quanh.
Nhung ddng thai dau tidn cua chinh quyen Tap Can Binh la rapt loat de xudt mdi va tara nhin Idn tao bao de thiic ddy kinh te khu vyc.
Mac dil nhiing de xudt va tdm nhin dd cd the phiic tap, nhung chiing cd the chia thanh 2 linh vyc bo sung cho nhau. Thii nhdt la "CMen luge Con dudng To lua" vdi de xuat khdi niem
"Vanh dai kinh te con dudng Ta lua" tai Trung A, va "Con dudng Ta lua hang hai the ky 21"
tai Dong Nam A. Khdi niem tren cho thdy y
' Vietpress(2012).
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 12 - 2018, tr.48-56
tudng phat trien hda binh cua Trung Qudc trong each tiep can ddi vdi quan he vdi cac nudc lang gieng. Linh vyc thii hai bao gdm thuc ddy viec ket ndi cac khu vuc thuong mai ty do vd hang lang kinh te, ciing nhu de xudt thanh lap mot ngdn hang ddu tu co sd ha tdng chdu A. Muc tieu ciia viec thanh lap mgt ngdn hang dau tu ca sd ha tdng chdu A la lap mdt ngdn hang huy dgng vdn khu vuc. Vi the, hai linh vyc de xuat tren khdng phai la tuy y, ma deu cd cac co sd ljch sir va hien tai, la phien ban nang cap cua rad hinh cdng tac kinh te cii vdi cdc nudc lang gieng'.
Sang kien Con dudng to lua mdi dugc cdng bd ldn dau nam 2013, gdm hai cdu phdn la
"Vanh dai kinh te Con dudng to lua" (tren bd) va "Con dudng ta lua tren bien". Chien luge Con dudng ta lua dugc dua ra trong boi cdnh nen kinh te Trung Quoc dang chiu nhieu tang dp lyc, do nhu cau trong nudc thieu dpng lyc va nhu cau quoc te suy giam. Vi vay, mdt trong nhiing myc tieu ciia chien luge nay dupc cho la nham gidi quyet nhu cau xudt khdu cua nen cdng nghiep Trung Quoc. Mot ludng y kien khac cho rang muc tieu quan trpng ban ma Bac Kinh mudn dat dugc qua chien luge Con dudng to lua mdi ia nham tang cudng rang buoc lgi ich vdi cac nudc chau A, tir dd canh tranh vdi My, nang tdm anh hudng cua minh trong khu vyc.
Cac ddng thai tich cue ciia Chinh phu Trung Quoc ttong viec thiic day chien luge Con dudng ta lya va thai dp phan img tich eye cua cdc nudc cho thay siic anh hudng ngay cang tang ciia Bdc Kinh trong khu vuc chdu A, ddng thdi phan anh xu hudng dich chuyen quyen luc giua nudc nay va My^. Vanh dai kinh te con dudng to lya tren bg se dya vdo con dudng quoc te ldn, lay cac thanh phd trung tam tten tuyen dudng lam try cdt, lay cac khu kinh te, thucmg mai va cdng
= Diic Long (2015).
B6ng Thi Thuy Linh, Le Minh Dong. Quan he thircmg n nghiep lara nen tang, cimg tao ra cac hanh lang,
hgp tac kinh te qudc te mdi giua hai ddu cua luc dia A - Au, Trung Quoc - Mdng Cd - Nga, Tmng Quoc - Trung A - Tay A, Trung Qudc - Ban dao Ddng Duomg^
Chinh saeh Idng gieng thic ba cua Mdng Cd Chinh sach nudc "lang gilng thii 3" la chinh sach ddi ngoai xuyen sudt trong cac ttien khai chinh sach ngoai tiiuang, ddu tu cua Mdng Cd ra nudc ngoai, day ciing la mdt trong nhung nhdn tl quan trpng tac ddng den quan he kinh te Mong Cd - Trung Qudc.
Vao nhiing nam 1990, hdu anh hudng cua hai ngudi lang gieng to ldn ddi vdi Mdng Cd vdn con Idu dai va nang ne. Nga tiii cung cdp phdn Idn ddu md khi ddt, cdn Trung Qudc thi kiem sodt kha nang tiep can den cac cang. Ca hai deu la cac nha ddu tu Idn, deu bi thu hut bdi ngudn khodng sdn ddi dao ciia Mdng Co.
Nhung nguyen nhan ay da khuyen khich Mdng Co dua ra chinh sdch ddi ngoai da phuang mdi hudng tdi uu tien md rgng quan he ngoai giao vdi nhirng nudc va ddi tac khdc ngoai Tmng Quoc va Nga. Khai mem "lang gieng thii ba" ra ddi tir ggi y cua cyu Ngoai trudng My James Baker trong chuyen tham Mong co nam 1991.
Nd trd thanh giai phap ca ban giup Mdng Cd no lyc cdn bang lai cdc radi quan he qudc te, lam doi trgng giam su dnh hudng va phu thudc chat che vao Tmng va Nga. Chinh sach nay cd muc tieu giiip Mdng Cd thodt khdi sy le thudc hoan toan vao hai nudc lang gieng Idn va tira kiera them cho minh nhiing ca hdi mdi tir cdc khu vuc ben ngoai de phdt trien dat nudc, hdi nhdp qudc te, va dam bao an ninh qudc gia.
Thyc te la, ngi dung cua cym tir "Idnggiing thic ba" mang y nghTachinh ttj, an ninh va kinh te chic khong dinh vi cu the y nghTa dia ly, ciing
khdng dugc Mdng Cd neu ten cu the. Song cum tir nay thudng am cW "cdc nudc ddn chit phdt trien", thdm chi ttong each hieu rgng hem cdn la cac qudc gia, td chiic khac ngoai Nga va Trung Qudc ma Mdng Cd da, dang va se xay dyng, phat trien quan he. Tuy nhien, trgng tdm ciia chinh sach hudng den viec day manh quan he vdi cac qudc gia cd quyen Iuc ttong khu vyc va thi gidi, cac ddi tac cung cdp cho Mdng Co cac khoan tai trg, cho vay va thuang mai dang ke, hay cd y nghia kinh te Idn cho su phdt trien ciia Mong Co. Viec cimg cd sau sac cdc mdi quan he chinh tri - kinh te vdi cac qudc gia nay dugc xem nhu doi trgng de duy tti can bang cac moi quan he vdi hai nudc lang gieng khdng 16. Ddy la mdt ttong nhimg yeu td chu dao dam bao an ninh qudc gia, tang cudng quan he kinh te vdi cac qudc gia dan chii phdt trien, va dugc sic dyng nhu mdt cdng cy lam tang uy tin quoc te cua Mdng Cd.
Mdng Cd - mgt trong nhiing qude gia giau ldi nguyen thien nhien nhdt the giai
Cdc nha dia chdt phat hien ra rang, nam dudi sa mac menh mdng, khd can cua Mdng Co la rdt nhieu md ddng, than da, uranium, sat, vang va nhirng kim loai quy hiem ma thieu no con ngudi khdng the lara ra may bay, xe hoi, may tinh hoac dien thoai di ddng. Ngoai ra, mgt khdi lugng dang ke ddu va khi ddt ciing dugc phat hien d Mdng Cd. Trii lugng cua 15 rad ldn nhdt udc tinh cd khoang 280 tan vang nguyen chdt, 1,8 trieu tan ddng, dac biet phai kl tdi mo than Shivee Ovoo va Tavan Tolgoi gia tri len tdi 300 ty USD va 400 ty USD. Ngoai ra, mo vang va ddng Oyu Tolgoi ciing cd gia tti Urong duang 300 ty USD". Tuy nhien, tilm nang cua tdi nguyen Mdng Cd khdng chi dimg Iai d do.
Lfdc tinh 4/5 dien tich ddt chua dugc tham do
' Baomoi (2018). •* Nhipcaudautu (2012).
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. S6 12 - 2018, tt.48-56
Dong Thi Thuy Linh, Le Minh Dong. Quan he llnrang mgi . khai thac. Mac dii Mdng Cd rdt giau ngudn tai
nguyen khoang sdn nhu: ddng, vang, quang uranium va mdt so khoang san hiem khac, nhung trii lupng than da tai qudc gia nay van la ndi bat nhdt. Udc tinh tdng trii lugng than da tren toan Mong Cd la 125 ty tan, san lupng khai thac than ciia Mdng Cd la 5 trieu tdn/ ngay. Md than Tava Tolgoi, nam d phia Bac sa mac Gobi, each bien gidi Tmng Qudc 270 km, hien dang la md than ldn nhdt the gidi, tru lugng Ien tdi 6,4 ty tan than, ttong dd cd ban 5 ty tdn than Id than cdc va than atraxit chdt lupng cao. Trii lupng than d ddy nhieu tdi miic ngudi ta cd the khai thac dugc 40 trieu tan vao nam 2020 va 240 trieu tan vao nam 2040. Trii lugng than khong Id cua rad Tavan Tolgoi da khien rdt nhieu nha ddu tu quoc te thera thudng va tranh danh quyen khai thac tai day^. Hang nghin gidy phep khai thac khoang san da dugc Chi'nh phii cdp cho cac cong ty trong va ngoai nudc.
Mac dil thj trudng khai khoang Mdng Cd dang chju anh hudng ldn tir cac qudc gia hiing manh nhu: My, Trung Qudc, Nga, Nhdt Ban va Han Quoc. Nhung, xet ve tdng the thi hai cudng quoc CO tam anh hudng Idn nhdt tai Mdng Cd van la Nga va Trung Qudc, chu yeu do hai Iy do la dia Iy va ljch sir. Cac tuyen dudng lira chay xuyen tir Mdng Cd sang Nga va Trung Qudc khien hai qudc gia ndy cd the khai thac khoang san de dang tir Mdng Cd. Tuy nhien, xet chung thi Trung Quoc vdn cd uu the ban ve mat dia ly, giao thdng va giao thoa van hda vdi Mdng Cd, so vdi Nga'',
Hien Trung Quoc da cd vj the chac chan hon nhieu tai Mdng Cd. Tai Trung Qudc do nganh luyen kim den dang phat trien vd md rgng vdi toe do ldn nen Bac Kinh ludn cd nhu cau rat Idn den trii luong than cdc khong Id ciia
Mong Cd. Bdt cii d ddu co kliai thac md kim loai mau hoac ddu md thi d dd ngudi Trung Qudc da lam dudng bd den tan nai. Ben canh do, cac nha ddu tu nudc ngoai trong do c6 cac cdng ty Nga ludn phan nan rang quyen Igi ciia hp khdng cd sy bdo ve nao cd. Khong it trudng hgp ngudi Mdng Cd da nhdn tien ciia ngudi nay nhung lai giao md cua minh cho ngirdi khac. Ro rang, neu Canada da trd thanh nai cung cap nguyen lieu cho My, thi Mdng Cd cung gidng Canada da trd thanh nai cung cdp nguyen lieu cho Trung Quoc. Hien cd 1.100 cdng ty Trung Quoc dang boat ddng tai day, trong khi dd cdc cdng ty cua Nga cM dem tren ddu ngon tay.
Cong viec khao sat, tham dd khoang san ciia Mdng Cd ngay cang nam dudi sy kiem soat ciia ngudi Trung Qudc. Vi vay, Mong Co dang lo ngai va cd de khdng bj le thudc vao Tmng Qudc. Hien Mdng Co rdt mong chd sy giup dd cua cac nudc phuang Tdy va Nhdt Ban. Phuang Tay hieu dugc y nghia chien luge ciia Mdng Co vdi tu each la mgt trong nhung nudc quan trpng cd trii lugng uranium tren the gidi va dang co canh tranh vdi cac nudc khac'.
2. Thuc trang quan he t h u o n g mai Mong Co - Trung Quoc
Trong mgt thap ky qua, Trung Quoc la doi tac thucmg mai va nhd ddu tu nudc ngoai Idn nhdt ciia Mong Cd. Trong chuyen tham cua Chii tjch Tap Can Binh den Mdng Co ngay 21/08/2014, Thir trudng Bg Khai tiiac khodng san Mdng Cd da noi rang: "Mgi ngudi Mdng Cd deu Idm an vdi ngudi Tmng Qudc". Cdu noi tten da khai quat mdt each kha toan dien ve quan he Tmng Quoc - Mdng Co Men nay - sy phu thudc kinh te cua Mong Co vao Trung Quoc ciing Miu nhung tac ddng va he lyy cua no.
^ NangluongVietnam (2012)
^NangluongVietnam (2012).
.( Nghien ciru An Dp va Chau A. Sd 12 - 2018, tr.48-56
' Nghiencuubiendong (2011).
Dong Thi Thiiy Linh, Le Minh Dong. Quan he thicang mai . Vdi dan sd 2,7 trieu ddn vd dien tich gdn 1,6
trieu km2, Mdng Cd gidng nhu ngudi "ty hon"
ben canh "ga khdng Id" Trung Qudc- nen kinh tl dimg thii 2 thi gidi vdi 1,3 ty dan. Vi vay, sy phu thudc ciia Mdng Cd vao Tnmg Qudc ve kinh te la dieu de Meu.
Quy mo, ty trgng quan hi thuang mai Trudc khi Lien Xd sup do, quan he kinh te, buon ban, ddu tu ciia Mdng Cd chit yeu vdi Lien Xo va khdi cac nudc xa hdi chu nghia Ddng Au.
Nam 1991, Mdng Cd md ciia vd thiet lap quan he budn ban, ddu tu vdi hon 30 nudc tren the gidi, trong dd cd Tmng Qudc. Kim ngach buon ban giua Nga va Mdng Cd nam 1994 dat 243 ttieu USD nhung nam 1996 suy giam dang ke, ttong khi dd kim ngach thuong mai vdi Trung Qudc tang len manh me^. Nam 1996, budn ban hai chieu Tmng Qudc - Mdng Cd dat 140 trieu USD, din nam 2010 con sd nay Id 4 ty USD.
(Bieu dd 1).
Bieu do 1: Kim ngach thu-orng mai hang hoa cua Mong Co vol Trung Quoc Dan vj: ty USD 8,000 •^^i^^rXa^t1<h^irTHMi»^h$p"kh^in-^^^-~-^"6ng^
7,000
6,430
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Nguon: ITC, Trade map.org
Ve thuang mai, trong nhieu nam qua, Trung Qudc la ddi tdc thuang mai Idn nhdt cua Mdng Co. Tir nam 1990 den nay, Chinh phu hai nudc da ky ket hem 10 thoa thuan hgp tac kinh te va cdng nghe. Theo so lieu tinh toan cua ITC, tir nam 2007 den nam 2014, thuang mai giiia hai nudc Trung Qudc va Mdng Cd da tang tir 2,03 ty USD nam 2007
Ien den 6,41 ty USD nam 2017, trong dd nam 2014 la nam cd tdng kim ngach xuat nhdp khau cao nhat trong giai doan 2007 - 2017 vdi miic 7,31 ty USD (Bilu dd 1). Du kiln ting kim ngach xudt nhdp khdu giua hai nudc se tang len miic 10 ty USD ttong nam 2020^ Nhu vdy, trong vong 10 nam, tdng kim ngach thuong mai giiia Mdng Cd va Tmng QuIc da tang 3,6 Ian.
* Nguyen Xuan Trung (2017).
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 12 - 2018, tr.48-56
^ So kinh ti thuong mai Trung Qu6c tai Mong 06 (2014), Nhin lai 65 nSm quan he hop tac Trung Quic-Mong C6
Bong Thi Thiiy Linli, Le Minh Dong. Quan he thuang ii Bieu do 2: Ty trong kim ngach thirong mai Mong C6-Trung Quoc trong tong kim
ngach thuong mai cua Mong Co vdi the gidi
Don vi: %
Nguon: tdc gia ty tinh toan dya vdo so lieu ciia trademap.or) Ty trgng kim ngach thuang mai giiia hai
nudc trong tong kim ngach thuang mai cua Mdng Cd vdi the gidi cung chiem muc dp kha cao (tren 50%) trong giai doan 2010 - 2017 (Bieu do 2). Nam 2014 la nam tong kim ngach thuang mai giiia hai qudc gia dat mice cao nhat trong giai doan 2007 - 2017 (7,32 ty USD), ciing la nam ma ty trpng kim ngach thuang mai hai nudc trong tong kim ngach thucmg mai cua Mdng Cd vdi the gidi dat mite cao nhat vdi 66,78%. Dieu nay cho thdy miic dp phy thudc ve thuang mai vao ddi tdc Trung Qudc cua Mdng Cd d miic dp kha cao. (Bang 2).
Trong do, xudt khau ciia Mdng Cd sang Tmng Qudc la 1,35 ty USD nam 2007 chilm 71,4% tdng xudt khau cua Mdng Cd ra the gidi, tang Ien 5,1 ty USD nam 2014, chiira 88% tdng xudt khdu ciia Mdng Co. Nhin chung kim ngach xudt khau cua Mdng Co sang Trung QuIc va ty trpng cua no trong tdng xudt khdu cua Mdng Cd ra the gidi dang cd xu hudng ngay cang tang ddn. Neu nhu nam 2005, ty trpng kim ngach xuat khdu ciia Mdng Cd sang Tmng Quoc chi chiem 50,8% trong tdng kim ngach xudt khdu
ciia Mdng Co ra the gidi, thi den nam 2007, ty trpng nay la 71,4%, va nam 2014 la 88%. Tir nam 2015 den nara 2017, mac dii kim ngach xudt khdu cua Mdng Cd sang Trung Quoc tang tir 3,76 ty USD (2015) Ien 5,17 ty USD (2017) nhung ty trpng trong tong xudt khau ciia Mong Cd ra the gidi khdng cao nhu nam 2014 vdi 80,5% (nam 2015) va 84,3% (nam 2017)"^.
Nhdp khdu ciia Mdng Co tir Trung Quoc trong giai doan tir nam 2007 din 2017 tang tir 0,68 ty USD nam 2007 len 1,24 ty USD nam 2017, trong dd nam cd tdng gia trj nhap khdu cao nhdt la nam 2011 vdi 2,73 ty USD va nam 2012 la 2,65 ty USD. Ty trpng nhdp khdu tir Tmng Quoc ttong tdng nhap khdu ciia Mong Cd cd xu hudng giam, tir miic 32,3% nam 2007 x u i n g cdn 30% nam 2017 mac dii trong giai doan 2011 den 2014, ty trpng ndy khd cao tren 40% (cu t h i la nam 2011 la 41,4% va nam 2014 la 43,2%)".
Mdt dac diem niia trong quan he thuang mai song phuang Trung Qudc-Mdng Co la Tmng Quoc lien tuc nhdp sieu tu Mong Co din dinh diem la nam 2017 vdi gia tri gan 3,93 ty
'" Tac gia tinh toan dua theo so lieu cua ITC-trade map. '' Tac gia tfnh toan dua theo s6 lieu ciia ITC-lrade map.
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 12 - 2018, tr.48-56 53
Dong Thj Thiiy Linh, Le Minh Dong. Quan he thicang mgi...
USD (chiem gdn 40% tdng gia trj thuang mai) (Bilu dd 1).
Ca cau mat hdng thuang mgi Ca cau mat hang nhap khau ciia Mong Cd tic Trimg Qudc trai khd deu tren cac san pham trong do cac nhdm sdn pham nhap khau chinh chiem ty trpng cao trong kim ngach nhdp khau cua Mong Cd dd la: nhdm san phdm may mac, phu kien, san pham dan mdc va det kim; nhdm san phdm sat, thep va cdc sdn phdm bang sat thep; nhom cac sdn phdm may radc, thiet bj ca Bang 1: Cac mat hang nhap khau
khi. Id phan iing hat nhdn, ndi hai; Midra san phdm may mdc va thilt bi dien va cac bg phan cua chiing; mdy ghi va tai tao am thanh, tivi;
nhdm cac loai xe khac ngoai toa xe lua hoac xe dien, va cac bp phan va phu timg cua chiing (Bang 1). Tuy nhien, nhdm san phdm may mac, phu kien, sdn phdm dan radc va det kira dang co xu hudng giam ddn tu miic chiem 7,5% tong kim ngach nhdp khdu cua Mdng Co tir Trung Qudc nam 2012 xudng cdn 0,14% trong nam 2017.
chinh tir Trung Quoc cua Mong Cd Don vj: nghin USD San pham
Tdng gia trj nhap khau cua Mdng Cd til the gidi
Cac san phdm raay mac va qudn ao phy kien, det kim hoac moc Mudi; luu huynh; dat va da; vat lieu ttat viia, vdi va xi mang Do gd, giudng, dem, gdi va cac do ngi thdt tucmg ty Sat va thep
Nhya va cac san plidra bang chat deo Cac san pham bang sat hoac thep Cac loai xe khac ngoai toa xe lira hoac xe dien, va cac bd phan va phu timg cua chiing
Nhien lieu khoang, dau khoang va cdc sdn pham chung cat ciia chiing; chdt bitura; khoang sdn May moc va thiet bi dien va cac bp phan cita chiing; may gM va tai tao dm thanh, tivi May mdc, tMet bi co khi, Id phan ling hat nhdn, ndi hoi; cac bd phan ciia chiing
2012
673831 509492 74115 66559 97845 118920 178917
272545
26705
227162
401964 2013
635781 449440 88129 52784 140666 132090 176036
144329
184401
158218
306716 2014
513145 310601 71990 31724 149515 114259 181691
108886
166008
153939
288671 2015
379651 240199 44107 26348 78854 60277 145751
73210
146946
132946
265999 2016
333964 66286 14466 23097 29839 52833 75553
57845
123002
115729
134182 2017 404999
5925 10166 37878 38406 64637 125995
134733
139840
162441
202182 Nhap khau ciia Trung Quoc tir Mong Co tap
trung chu yeu vao hai loai san pham la quang xi Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 12 - 2018, tr.48-56
va tro, chiem 38% t6ng gia tri xuit Idiju cua Mong C6 ra the giai nam 2012 va tang len 56%
Dong Thi Thiiy Linh, Le Minh Dong. Quan he thuang mgi . nam 2015 trudc khi gidm xudng miic 3 5 % vao Hai nhdm san phdm xudt khdu chinh ciia Mdng nam 2017. Nhdm san phdm thii hai chiem ty Cd sang Tmng Quoc da chiem den 86,5% tdng trgng cao dd la nhdm nhien Heu khoang, ddu kim ngach xuat khau cua Mdng Cd ra the gidi khoang va cac san pham chung cat ciia chiing, trong nam 2012, tuy nhien den nam 2017 da chdt bitum, khoang sdn vdi ty trpng ndm 2012 giam xudng cdn 77%.
la 48,5% va giam xudng cdn 4 2 % nam 2017.
Bang 2: C a c mat hang xuat k h a u chinh ciia Mong C6 sang T r u n g Quoc Don vi: nghin USD San pham
Tong gia tri xuat khau cua Mong Co ra the gidi Da song (moi chi cao va rua) va do thuoc da
Muoi; liru huynh; dat va da; vat lieu trat vira, voi va xi mang Hat CO dau va qua co dau; cac loai ngu coc, hat va qua khac;
cong nghiep hoac dugc lieu Thit va phu pham thit an dugc Dong va cac san pham bang dong
Qua va qua hach an dugc; vo trai cay hg cam quyt hoac dua hau
Long ciru, long dong vat loai mjn hoac loai tho; sgi long duoi ngira va vai det Quang, xi va tro
Nhien Heu khoang, dau khoang va cac san pham chung cat cua chung; chat bitum; khoang san
2012 4384669
15230 17473
3023 225 898
4151
93888 1666439
2125312 2013 4269056
16801 19487
7035 2566 0
0
99989 1682805
1663833 2014 5774331
14110 15331
13485 2319 27561
2212
109083 3232824
1664977 2015 4669280
11420 14653
26950 3612 26114
37669
140127 2610902
905254 2016 4916326
11259 9436
21409 12668 44795
75844
145316 1997423
1273983 2017 6134965
5730 19545
44038 48975 54766
89202
151788 2141257
2574140 Ngudn: trademap.org
Ket luan
Hien nay Tmng Qudc la doi tac thuang mai hang ddu cita Mdng Cd. Kim ngach thuang mai giiia hai nudc ke tir khi Chu tich Tap Can Binh Ien nam chinh quyen da tang 3,6 Ian. Mac dii Mdng Cd ludn la nudc cd thang du thuang mai
vdi Trung Qudc nhung ty trgng kira ngach thuang raai giua hai nudc trong tdng kim ngach thuang mai cua Mdng Cd vdi the gidi chiem tten 50% ttong giai d o a n 2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 7 . Dieu nay cho thdy miic do phu thudc ve thuang mai vao doi tdc Tmng Quoc cua Mdng Cd kha cao. Tuy nhien Men nay Mdng Cd da bat dau gidm ddn sy phy thudc vao Trung Qudc d ITnh vuc xudt
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. So 12 - 2018, tt.48-56
D6ng Thi Thiiy Linh, Le Minh Dong. Quan he thuang mgi..
khau cdc sdn pham nhien lieu khoang, quang xi vd tro.
Tai lieu tham khao
1 Baomoi (2018), 'Con dudng to lua' xua va tham vpng Tmng Qu6c ngay nay (Phan cuoi): Tiem nang ldn, https://baomoi.com/con-duong-to-lua- xua-va-tham-vong-trung-quoc-ngay-nay-phan- cuoi-tiem-nang-lon/c/27104644.epi, ngay truy cap 10/7/2018.
2. Diic Long (2015), Toan tfnh cua Trung Quoc tren Con dudng ta lua mai, https://vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/the-gioi/phan- tich/toan-tinh-cua-trung-quoc-tren-con-duong-to- lua-moi-3199388.html, ngay truy cap 5/6/2018.
3. NangluongVietnam (2012), Cudng qu6c nao se thang trong 'cupc chien than da' tai Mong Co?, http://nangluongvietnam.vn/news/vn/du- bao/cuong-quoc-nao-se-thang-ttong-cuoc-chien- than-da-tai-mong-co.html, ngay truy cap 30/7/2018.
4. Nguyen Xuan Trung va cong sir (2017), quan he giiia Trung Qu6c v6i Pakistan, cong hoa dan chii nhan dan Trieu Tien, Mong Co trong boi canh Trung Quoc dieu chinh chien luge phat trien, Nxb. khoa hpc xa hpi.
5. Nghiencuubiendong (2011), Ngudi Trung
Qu6c dang bit ddu banh tnrong tai Mong Co, http://nghiencuubiendong.vn/nghien-cuu-trung- quoc/1261-ngi-trung-quc-ang-bt-u-banh-trng-ti- mong-c, ngay tmy cap 4/7/2018.
6. Nhipcaudautu (2012), Mdng Cd se trd thanh Qatar thinh vugng thir hai?, http://nhipcaudautu.vn/the-gioi/mong-co-se-tro- thanh-qatar-thinh-vuong-thu-hai-3189777/, ngay truy cap 24/7/2018.
7. Phi H6ng Minh & Le Minh Dong (2014), Chinh sach "lang gieng thir ba" ciia Mong Co tir sau Chien tranh Lanh den nay. Tcip chi nghien cicuDdngBdcAsh%20\A).
8. Sd kinh te thuang mai Trung Quoc tai Mdng Cd (2014), Nhin Iai 65 nam quan he hpp tac Trung Quoc-Mdng Cd.
9. So lieu thdng ke tai trang web Trademap.org.
10. Vietpress (2012), Hai trpng tdm chinh sach ngoai giao vdi cac nudc lang gieng ciia Trung Quoc,
https://vietpress2012.wordpress.com/2014/01/31 /hai-trong-tam-ch inh-sach-ngoai-giao-voi -cac- nuoc-lang-gieng-cua-trung-quoc/, ngay truy cap 23/05/2018.
Nghien ciiu An Dp va Chau A. S6 12 - 2018, tt.48-56