KINH TE THE GICJI
Mot so danh gia ve tac dpng cua cuoc khung hoang kinh te va tai chinh hien nay den dong von dau tu' tryc tiep nu'6'c ngoai tren the giai
TS.VU QUOC HUY TS. LE VAN CHIEN*
Quy md bdt thuang cua cude khiing hodng dang diin ra tren thi giai dd gdy lo nggi ve ticang lai ciia nin kinh li ihi gi&i, dae biit Id linh vuc ddu tu qudc li. Trong bdi cdnh nhu vdy, nhin lgi tinh hinh ddu tu true flip nu&c ngodi ndm qua vd xem xet nhiing dnh hu&ng cita cuoc khung hodng hien th&i din ddng vdn ddu tu qudc ti cd y nghia quan Irong ddi v&i viic hogch dinh ehinh sdch thu hiit ddu tu nu&c ngodi hiin nay cdng nhu nhiing ndm tiip theo.
Bdi viil ndy chit yiu dua Iren mdt sd bdo edo gdn day cua UNCTAD vi Idc ddng ciia khung hodng din FDI. Bdi viil duqc cdu true nhu sau; Phdn I cung cdp bice tranh todn cdnh vi ddng vdn ddu lu true liip nu&c ngodi tren the gi&i ndm 2008 dgt trong bdi cdnh phdt trien mdi tru&ng kinh te chung cita thi gi&i, bao gdm su bdt dn dinh cita linh vue tdi ehinh qudc te vd dd suy gidm cua kinh li todn edu; Phdn 2 se kham phd nhiing viin cdnh khde nhau cita FDI Irong ngdn vd Irung hgn; Cudi citng, Phdn 3 se de cap din mdt sd kiin nghi chinh sdch nhdm gidm thiiu tdc ddng tiiu cue cua cude khung hodng hiin nay din ddng vdn FDI
1. Dien bien dau tu true tiep nudc ngoai nam 2008 va quy 1/2009
1.1. Tinh hinh chung
Giai dgan 2003 - 2007 la nhu'ng nam FDI dat dugc sy tang trudng lien tyc, xu hudng nay dugc hd trg bdi sy tang trudng vung chae cfla kinh te the gidi, xu hudng ty do bda trong chinh sach dau tu cfla cac nudc, va chien lugc qudc te hda hoat dgng cfla hang loat cdng ty xuyen qudc gia (TNCs). Dieu nay khien cho lugng vdn diu
Dai hgc Kinh te, Bai hoc QuSc^iaHa Noi
'* Hoc vien Chinh trj - Hanh chinh Qu6c gia H5 Chi Minh
tu tryc tiep nudc ngoai tren toan the gidi da tang nhanh va dat mflc cao nhat tu trudc den nay, 1,9 nghin ty USD vao nam 2007. Tuy nhien, tinh hinh da thay ddi tfl nfla sau cua nam 2008.
Su bat dn trong he thdng tai cbinh the gidi, khdi dau bang cugc khung hoang tin dung bat ddng san d My nd ra tu mfla he nam 2007, da anh hudng nghiem trgng den ITnh vuc dau tu.
Luc dau la mgt sd the che tai chinh cua My nhu Lehman Brothers va AIG va sau dd la cfla chau Au nhu Fortis, Dexia, va mgt loat ngan hang cfla Iceland cd dau hieu khdng tra dugc ng. Mdt sy rdi loan hoan toan trong he thdng tai chinh the
14 -NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHfNH TR! THE Gl6l So 8 (160) 2009
Vu Qudc Huy - Le Van ChlSn Mdt s l danh gia ve tac ddng ciia cugc khung hoang.
Hinh 1: Dong von FDI tren the gioi va theo nhom nude, 1980 - 2008 (Ty USD)
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Ngudn: Dua Iren ca sd die lieu ciia UNCTAD (www, unclad, orz'fdi statistics).
Hinh 2: Gia trj sap nhap qua bien gioi theo quy, 2006 - 2009 (Ty USD)
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Ngudn: UNCTAD.
gidi sau dd da xay ra vao cudi nam 2008. Cugc khflng hoang da nbanb chdng lan rgng, vugt ra ngoai ITnh vuc tai chinh va anb budng nghiem trgng den tdc do tang trudng cfla cac nen kinh te.
Hien nay kinh te the gidi khdng cbi phat trien cham lai ma khflng hoang da trd tbanh hien thyc rd rang trong nhieu nude cdng nghiep phat trien.
Niem tin cfla ngudi tieu dflng da giam sflt nhanh chdng, nhat la d My va cac nudc chau Au'. Nhieu hang Idn da bi anh budng tieu eye do kha nang ban hang va doanh thu bi tbu hep nhanh chdng.
Va dieu khdng the tranh khdi la niem tin cfla cac ' Trong thang 2/2009, chi so niem tin cua ngiroi tieu diing da giam xuong muc thap nhat ke tir nam 1978. Cung trong thang 2/2009 chi so niem tin cua nguai tieu dimg chau Au da giam xuong miic thap nhat ki tii' Ichi no dugc thanh lap nam 1995 [Thai bdo Tdi chinh ngdy 26 thang 2 nam 2009].
nha dau tu bi tdn thuong, kha nang chi tra, kha nang dau tu cfla hg bi ban che. Theo mgt khao sat ve trign vgng diu tu 2008 - 2010 do UNCTAD tien hanh vao thang 4 den thang 6/2008 thi vao thdi diem dd da cd 40% sd cdng ty tra ldi cbo rang tinh hinh kinh te bat dn hien tai da cd anh hudng tieu eye boac rat tieu eye den boat ddng dau tu cfla hg. Cflng trong cugc khao sat nay, quan diem cfla cae edng ty xuyen qudc gia ve trien vgng trung ban da the hien sy kem lac quan hon rat nhieu so vdi ket qua cua cugc dieu tra mgt nam trude dd [UNCTAD, 2008a].
1.2. FDI gidm 15% ndm 2008 vd gidm mqnh Itffn trong ndm 2009
Trong da giam sflt cfla kinh te the gidi (va khflng hoang d nhieu qude gia), tin dyng bi that chat va lgi nliuan cfla cac cdng ty bi giam sut.
NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TR! THEGldl Sd 8 (160) 2009- 15
IVIgt sd danh gia ve tac ddng cua cugc khung hoang.. Vu Qudc Huy - Le Van Chifen Hinh 3: Gia trj sap nhap qua bien gioi a cac nudc phat t r i l n 2006 - 2009 (Ty USD)
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Ngudn: UNCTAD.
Hinh 4: Gia tri sap nhap qua bien gioi a cac nudc dang phat trien 2006 - 2009 (Ty USD)
Nguon: UNCTAD.
Hmh 5: Gia tri sap nhap qua bien gidi 6" cac nen kinh te chuyen ddi 2006 - 2009 (Ty USD)
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J Ngudn: UNCTAD.
nhieu cdng ty da phai thdng bao kg hoach cit giam san lugng, cat giam nhan cdng va ngimg boat dgng dau tu. Theo nhijng udc tinh ban dau cfla UNCTAD, tdng FDI tren toan thS gidi da giam khoang 15% trong nam 2008 (Bdng 1 vd Hinh I), phan ldn trong sd nay xay ra vao quy cudi cflng cua nam 2008. Hoat ddng mua ban sap nhap cung giam ky lye trong nam 2008 (giam 29%, Bdng I).
Sd lieu thdng ke ban dau trong quy I nam 2009 cho thay da cd sy giam sflt manh me trong ddng vdn FDI tren the gidi, dae biet la eac vu sap nhap qua bien gidi (xem Hinh 2 - 5) d ea ba nhdm nudc (cac nude phat trien, cac nudc dang phat trien va cac nudc chuyen ddi). Trong khi cac nudc phat trien va eac nen kinh te chuyen ddi chting kien miic giam trong ca nam 2008 va
16 -NhOng van de KINH TEVA CHINH TRj T H ^ ' G I 6 | Sd 8 (160) 2009
vo Qudc Huy - Le Van Chidn Mgt sd danh gia vd tac ddng cua cugc khung hoang..
quy dau nam 2009 thi cac nude dang phat triSn chi bit diu giam tfl quy 1 nam 2009. Vi dy, FDI chay vao Trung Qudc bai thang diu nam 2009 da giam 26% so vdi cflng ky nam ngoai, Han Qudc giam 38% trong quy diu nam 2009.
1.3. Cac khu vuc chiu anh hudng khac nhau Tuy nhien, anh hudng cfla khflng khoang den FDI la rat khae nhau giua cac nen kinh te va cac khu vyc, va hau qua cfla nd gay ra cflng khac nhau giua eac vflng va qudc gia.
Tren binh dien kinh te, cac nude phat trien, noi khdi ngudn cfla cugc khflng hoang lan nay, da chiu anh hudng tryc tiep tfl cugc khflng hoang tai chinh, trong kbi dd cac nudc dang phat trien phan Idn chi chiu anh hudng gian tiep. Mflc do anh hudng cflng rat khac nhau giua cac vflng va cac qudc gia, dieu nay anh hudng tryc "tiep den tinh hinb FDI d mdi qudc gia, khu vyc.
Ve tinh hinh FDI, cac nudc phat trien la nhflng qudc gia chiu anh hudng nhieu nhat trong nam 2008. Sd lieu thdng ke cho thay, do tac ddng cua nhung van de nghiem trgng keo
dai trong cac the cbe tai chinh cung nhu cugc khflng hoang kha nang tbanh toan tren thi trudng tien te va thi trudng ng, ddng vdn FDI vao cac nudc phat trien da sut giam nghiem trgng. FDI trong toan bg nhdm nudc phat trien da giam khoang 25% trong nam 2008. Ddng vdn FDI dae biet giam manh d eac nudc Phan Lan, Due, Hungary, va Italia. Tham chi con sd FDI vao cac nudc nay thap ban ca muc nam 2006, trong khi dd theo udc tinh, ddng vdn FDI vao cac nudc nhu Phap, va Vuong Qudc Anh da giam nhe ban nhung cflng giam nhieu so vdi muc cao ky Iyc nam 2007 d cac nudc nay. Chi cd mdt trudng hgp ngoai le do la My. FDI chay vao nudc nay da tang 38% nam 2008 va dat mflc 321 ty USD. Cd hai ly do cd the giai thich cho hien tugng nay: Thic nhdl, cac TNCs da chuyen vdn dudi dang tai san boac vay ngi bg ve chi nhanh cfla bg d My nham trg giflp nhflng khd khan tai chinh ma cac chi nhanh nay dang phai ddi mat. Thit hai, cugc khiing hoang tai My da tao ra CO bdi mdi cho cac cdng ty nudc ngoai mua lai cac cdng ty cfla My. Tuy nhien, dau tu gian tiep vao My thi da giam nhieu trong nam 2008.
Bdng 1: Ddng FDI va sap nhap qua bien gidi, theo khu vuc va nen kinh te 2007 - 2008
Don vi: ty USD
Khu vu'c/Nen kinh te
The gioi
Cac nuoc phat trien Chau Au
My Nhat Ban
Cac nuoc dang phat trien Chau Phi
My La Tinh & vimg Caribe Chau A va chau Dai Duong Tay A
Nam, Dong & Dong Nam A Cac nen kinh te chuyen doi
Dong FDI 2007
1.940,9 1.341,8 920,9 232,8 22,5 512,2 53,5 127,3' 331,4
71,5 258,7
86,9
2008 1.658.5 1.001,8 559,0 320,9 19,0 549,1
72.0 139,3 337,8 61,4 275,2 107,6
Tang tru'ffng (%) -14,5 -25,3 -39,3 37,8 -15,6 7,2 34,7
9,4 1,9 -14,2
6.4 23,8
Sap nhap qua bien gioi 2007
1.699,8 1.504,1 859.4 389,2 24,6 161,6
12,5 31,1 118,1
33,8 84,0 34,1
2008 1.205,4
998,3 561,4 318,2 19,5 182,1
27,0 32,8 122.3
31.6 90,0 24,9
Tang tru'ung (%) -29,1 -33,6 -34,7 -18,2 -20,6 12,7 116,5 .
5,5 3,6 -6,6 7.6 -27,0 Nguon: UNCTAD.
NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TRj THE Gidl So 8 (160) 2009- 17
Mdt sd danh gia vd tac ddng cua cugc khung hoang.. Vu Qu6c Huy - Le Van ChiSn Nguyen nhan co ban cfla sy giam sflt FDI
trong cac nudc phat trien la do giam sflt lgi nhuan cfla cac cdng ty xuyen qude gia d eac nudc phat trien va sy cat giam cho vay giua cac ngan hang da ban che ngudn vdn tai trg dau tu cho cac dy an. Cac giao dich tai san cung giam sflt dan den tinh trang sap nhap cac cdng ty giira cac qudc gia cflng suy giam (29% trong nam 2008, xem Bdng I), lam anh budng tieu eye hon nua den ddng vdn FDI.
Tai cac nudc dang phat trien va cac nen kinh te chuyen ddi, ddng vdn FDI van dugc duy tri d mflc tuong ddi dn dinh. Tdc do tang vdn FDI chay vao cac nudc dang phat trien dfl da thap hon nam 2007 (nam ma tdc do tang FDI len tdi bon 20%) nhung van dat muc 7% trong nam 2008. Ddng FDI vao chau Phi tham chi cdn tang kba quan bon va dat mflc 72 ty USD [UNCTAD, 2009], bit chip da tang trudng cham lai cfla nen kinh te the gidi va nhung anh hudng tieu eye cfla nd den nen kinh te cfla khu vyc nay. Ddng vdn FDI chay vao khu vyc Ddng, Nam va Ddng Nam A, khu vyc von thu hut nhieu FDI nhat trong cac nudc dang phat trien va thudng xuyen chiem khoang mdt nua lugng vdn FDI vao cac nudc dang phat trign cflng tang nhe nhung tdc do tang vin thip hon so vdi nam 2007. Khu vyc Tay A chflng kien sy syt giam trong ddng vdn FDI, vdi mflc giam khoang tren 14% so vdi mflc cao ky Iyc mgt nam trudc dd. Nguyen nhan la do tdc do tang nhu cau ve dau tbd bi cham lai, cbi phi gia tang, kim ngach xuat khau giam sflt (do gia diu tren the gidi giam manb). Ngugc lai, so vdi cac kbu vyc khac tren the gidi, ddng von FDI chay vao khu vyc chau My La Tinh va vflng Caribe trong bdi canh suy giam kinh te toan ciu vin dat muc tang trudng dang kg, udc dat muc 9% trong nam 2008, mgt phan quan trgng la nhd FDI chay vao khu vyc Nam My da tang manh.
Trong khi dd, ngudn vdn FDI chay vao cac nin kinh te chuyen ddi khu vyc Ddng Nam Au va Cdng ddng cac qudc gia dgc lap van duy tri dugc tdc do nhu nhung nam trudc do, bit chip
khung hoang kinh te va xung dot trong khu vyc.
Cy thd, FDI vao khu vyc nay da tang 23,8%
nam 2008. Ngugc Iai vdi cac nudc phat trien, d cac nudc dang phat trien sd lugng cac vy sap nhap cac cdng ty xuyen qudc gia da tang 12,7%
trong nam 2008, dac biet la tai khu vyc chau Phi va chau A (xem Bdng I), dfl muc tang nay la tu mgt dilm xuit phat thip trong nhung nam trudc (ngoai tru ehau A, noi sd lugng cac vu sap nhap da cao trong nhung nam trudc).
Nhin chung, lugng vdn FDI vao eac nudc phat triln da giam manh, va manh nhat tren the gidi. d mdt sd nen kinh te dang phat trien co mflc do "md" cao, he thong tai chinh yeu kem, dl bi ton thuang trudc nhiing cu sde tfl ben ngoai cung dang phai ddi mat vdi muc giam chua timg cd trong ngudn vdn tfl ben ngoai ca ngudn vdn vay chinh thuc va ngudn vdn tu nhan. Vi dy, ngudn vdn FDI da giam manh d cac nudc nhu Indonesia, Han Qude, Pakistan, Singapore, Thd NhT Ky, do anh hudng nghiem trgng tu eudc khflng hoang tai chinh.
2. Trien vong hoat dong FDI
Trong khi nhirng anh hudng tieu eye cfla cugc khflng hoang kinh te va tai chinh van cdn manh me trong nam 2009 thi mgt sd nhan td tich eye cflng dang hien hiru va la chi dau cho phep cd the hy vgng sdm mudn thi nhung boat ddng dau tu tryc tiep nudc ngoai se sdi ddng trd lai. Thdi gian cy the thi cdn phu thudc vao nhieu yeu td nhung cd the cd ba kich ban ve dien bien cfla cugc khflng hoang va co che phuc hdi kinh te the gidi (theo hinh ehu V, chu' U hoac chir L).
2.1. Triin vong ngdn han cho cdc nu&c dang phdt triin
Trong ngan ban, nhat la ngay trong nam 2009, khi nhung nhan td tich eye ehua the phat huy dugc tac dung thi nhieu nhan td (nhit la mflc do tram trgng cfla cugc khflng hoang dang tac dgng manh me vao cac edng ty xuyen qudc gia ca trong ITnh vyc tai ehinh va linh vuc phi
18 -NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHl'NH TR! THE Gl6l So 8 (160) 2009
Vu Qudc Huy - Le Van Chiln Mgt sd danh gia vd tac dpng cua cugc khung hoang.
tai chinh) cho thay xu budng di xudng vin la chfl dao trong boat dgng FDI. Cu tbi, FDI vao cae nudc dang phat triln, noi ma boat ddng FDI nam 2008 cdn duy tri dugc d mflc kha, se giam manh vao nam 2009 bit chip GDP cfla khdi nudc nay vin dugc dy bao la duy tri dugc mflc tang trudng duong. Nhilu nhan to khiln cbo FDI vao cac nudc dang phat trien bi anh budng trong nam nay nhu he thdng tai ehinh dang ty do hda manh nhung cdn yeu kem se phai ddi mat vdi nhung bien dgng tai chinh tren the gidi va sy bat dn dinh trong kinh te vT md. Do do, boat ddng FDI se giam manh do gap phai nhieu rfli ro hon trong mdi trudng nhu vay. Them nua, sy giam manb xuat kbau do nhu cau giam sflt d cac nudc phat trien se anh hudng den boat dgng cfla cac cdng ty xuyen qudc gia boat dgng trong linh vyc hudng ve xuat khau. FDI cflng mat dgng Iyc phat trien d nhung qude gia dang phat trien phu thudc nhieu vao cac mat hang nhu khoang san, dau thd va gas. Cudi cung, cac qudc gia kem phat trien se phai ddi mat vdi nhimg thach thuc cbua tflng cd la khd khan trong viec tiep can den nhung ngudn tai chinh ca vien trg chinh tbirc va ngudn vdn tu nhan, phai canh tranh khdc liet hon de tbu but FDI.
2.2. Trien vgng trung hqn
Trong trung ban (2010 - 2012) cd the cd ba kich ban cbo trien vgng cfla FDI. Cau hdi lam the nao de can bang nhung nhan td tich eye va tieu eye anh hudng den ddng vdn FDI se la cau hdi ldn ke tfl nam 2010 trd di. Do sy da dang cfla cac nhan td gay bat dn va nhflng phan img cd the cung rat phflc tap. Vien canh phuc hdi cfla cac boat dgng dau tu cung lien quan den hang loat van de nhu muc do nghiem trgng va thdi gian keo dai cfla khflng boang, hieu qua cua nhung phan flng chinh sach trong khflng hoang (dac biet la nhung cbinh sach kich thich dau tu).
sy dn dinh hda va phuc hdi cfla he thdng tai chinh, kha nang trd thanh nhirng nha dau tu chinh cfla cac cdng ty xuyen qudc gia tu cac nen kinh te mdi ndi. Mdt trong nhflng nhan td quan trgng anh hudng den trien vgng cfla FDI la kha nang phyc hdi cfla cac boat ddng mua, ban, sap nhap vdi tu each la mdt thanh td quan trgng cfla boat dgng FDI tren the gidi.
Tren co sd xem xet tinh hinh chung cua kinh te the gidi, cd the dua ra ba phuang an khac nhau ve trien vgng cfla boat dgng FDI trong nhung nam tdi nhu sau (xem Hinh 6 )
Hmh 6: FDI the gidi vdi ba kjch ban khac nhau, 1990 - 2012 (Ty USD)
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Trien vong Ngudn: Dira tren ca sd dir lieu ciia UNCTAD (wyrw.uuciiidom.ifdi statistics).
NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHJNH TRI THE GIOI Sd 8 (160) 2009- 19
Mdt sd danh gia vd tac ddng cua cugc khung hoang... Vu Qudc Huy - Le Van Chiln
Mdt Id, FDI se dien bien theo hinh chu V.
Day la trien vgng lac quan nhat, theo dd FDI se tang trd lai, bat dau ngay tfl cudi nam 2009. De FDI phat trien theo kich ban nay thi mgt sd dieu kien can thiet la: i) khung hoang kinh te the gidi se sdm ket thflc vao nfla sau cfla nam 2009; ii) Niem tin cfla cac nha dau tu dugc khdi phuc nhanh chdng nhd cac chinh sach giai cfln cfla cac chinb phfl ben canh cac nhan td ticb eye khac; iii) Chfl nghia bao hg kbdng quay trd lai;
iv) Mgt lan sdng mdi trong hoat ddng mua ban va sap nhap do nhu cau tai cau trflc lai mdt sd nganh cdng nghiep va do tiem Iyc tai chinh cfla mgt sd cdng ty va cac the cbe tai chinb. Bdi vi kich ban nay dya tren sy ket hgp cfla nhieu gia dinh lac quan nen nd khd dien ra tren thyc te, neu xet den nhung dien bien kinh te the gidi trong thdi gian qua.
Hai Id, FDI se dien bien theo hinh chu U.
Theo kich ban nay FDI ehi bat diu tang trd lai vao nam 2011. Mdt sd diiu kien gia dinh dam bao cho FDI dien bien tbeo kich ban nay la: i) Khflng hoang toan cau dien bien xau hon so vdi d kjch ban 1, nd cd the keo dai it nhit clio din nfla dau nam 2010; ii) Gia tri cfla cac vy mua, ban, sap nhap toan cau d mflc thip do gia ea cd phieu van dfl'ng d mfl'c thap; iii) Xu thi qudc tl hda boat ddng cfla cac cdng ty vin dugc duy tri trong trung ban. Theo kit qua diiu tra triln vgng diu tu 2009 - 2011 tbi gidi (WIPS), lanh dao cac cdng ty tren toan thi gidi coi kich ban nay la kha nang hien thyc nhit, vi hiu hit cac cdng ty thfla nhan se khdi ddng lai kl boach diu tu qudc te sau thdi dilm thip nhit la nam 2009.
Thu ha, FDI dien bien theo linh chu L. Day la kich ban bi quan nbat, FDI se khdng tang trd lai trudc nam 2012. Mgt sd diiu kien gia dinh cho kich ban nay la: i) Khflng hoang kinh tl, tai chinb se keo dai va dien bien xiu ban dy dinh, ben canh nhung nhan td khac thi nhung cang thang do chfl nghia bao hd quay lai lam anh hudng tieu eye den xu budng toan cau bda; ii) Nhung nhan td tieu eye tich ty lai ngay cang ldn, cac cdng ty van duy tri mflc do than trgng Idn
trong boat ddng dau tu, dac biet la dau tu cho nhung hoat dgng tren the gidi.
Nhung chinh sach thich hgp phai dugc xem xet va ban hanh nham han che kha nang xay ra kich ban bi quan nay va thflc day sy phuc hdi nhanh cfla ddng vdn FDI. Mdt sd chinh sach nhu vay se dugc xem xet trong phan tiep theo.
3. Kien nghi chinh sach
Hieu qua cfla nhu'ng cbinh sach phan flng cfla cbinh phfl nham ddi phd vdi khflng hoang tai cbinh va khflng hoang kinh te la nhan td vo cflng quan trgng trong viec tao ra nhflng dieu kien thuan Igi cbo sy phyc hdi cfla ddng vdn FDI. Thach thuc Idn nhat la phai khdi phuc dugc sy dn dinh va muc do tin cay cfla he thdng tai chinh the gidi, kich thich tang trudng kinh te trd lai nham ngan cban nhflng rfli ro cfla mgt cugc dai khflng hoang cd the xay ra, lam sdng lai nhflng cam ket manh me md cfla nen kinh te va khuyen khich dau tu va ddi mdi cdng nghe.
Trong phan nay chung tdi se dua ra mdt so chinh sacb ca d mflc do qude gia va qudc te, nham ddi pbd vdi khflng boang va nhung tac ddng cd the ed cfla nd ddi vdi FDI. Sau do chflng tdi se dua ra mgt sd kien nghi chinh sach danh cho cac nudc dang phat trien trong do cd Viet Nam.
3.1. Mgt so chinh sdch chung nhdm dSi pho V&i khiing hodng vd tdc dgng co thi cda
no doi v&i FDI
Cho den nay, khflng hoang van ehua cd tac dgng nao dang ke den nhung thay ddi trong chinb sach thu hflt diu tu cfla cac nudc do FDI khdng phai la can nguyen cfla cugc khung hoang nay. Tuy vay, mdt sd chinb sach tdng thi cfla cac qudc gia nham ddi phd vdi khflng hoang da cd nhung tac ddng gian tilp nhit dinh den boat dgng FDI.
i) Cdc chuang trinh gidi cicu vd cdc gdi cicu trq nin kinh ti
Nhieu nude phat trien nhu Phap, Dflc, Italia, Thyy Sy, My, Anh da thdng qua k l hoach giai
20 -NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TRI THE GICJI Sd 8 (160) 2009
Vu Qudc Huy - Le Van Chidn Mgt sd danh gia vd tac dgng cua cugc khung hoang.
cfln quy md ldn va nhung gdi kich ciu nhilu ty ddla, nhat la cho ITnh vyc tai chinh va nganh cdng nghiep d td. Thyc chit thi cac gdi cfln trg nay cd the cd ca tac dgng tich eye va tac ddng tieu eye den boat ddng FDI. Mat tich eye la:
nhung khoan vien trg cfla cbinh phfl cd thi ldi keo them FDI vi eac linh vyc dugc vien trg thudng dugc coi la an toan ban trong dieu kien khflng hoang do dugc chinb phfl chu nha bao lanh. Mat tieu eye la: mgt sd gdi cfln trg thyc chat la qua trinh qudc bun bda mdt phan hoac toan bd cdng ty tai chinh. Vi du, nhu d Bi, Dflc, Iceland, Luxembourg, Ha Lan, My, Anh, chinh phfl da mua lai mgt phan ngan bang hoac cdng ty bao hiem. Chflng nao dau tu cfla nha nudc cdn tiep tuc nhu vay tbi chflng dd co hgi diu tu cho tu nhan, bao gdm ca FDI se bi thu hep. Sy can dy cfla nha nudc vao cac cdng ty khdng thudc linb vyc tai chinh cd the ngan can cac nha dau tu nudc ngoai mua lai cac cdng ty trong nudc. Mdt sd lo ngai rang, nhung hanh ddng can thiep cfla nha nudc cd the dan den chfl nghTa bao hg dau tu. NghTa la, nha nudc cd the gianh mgt sd uu tien cho cac cdng ty trong nudc hon la cac cdng ty nudc ngoai, hoac cd the tao ra nhung rao can dau tu ra nudc ngoai nham giu vdn d lai trong nudc. Trong dieu kien nhu vay, nhflng hiep dinb dau tu, cy the la nhung nguyen tac khdng phan biet ddi xfl va nhung chuan myc (nhu ddi xfl cdng bang) cd the la mdt bflc
"tudng lua" nham ngan ehan chfl nghTa bao hg dang cd xu budng phat trien. Mdt khi kinh te toan cau phyc hdi, cac khoan dau tu tu ngan sach se dugc rflt khdi cac nganh cdng nghiep dau tau. Dieu nay se tao dieu kien cho sy phat trien manh me dau tu tu nhan, trong dd cd FDI.
Tuy nhien, de cac nba dau tu nudc ngoai tan dung dugc nhung co hgi nay, dieu quan trgng la hg khdng bi phan biet ddi xfl'.
ii) Cdc chuang Irinh kich thich tdi chinh vd phdt triin ca s& hg Idng cdng cdng
Rit nhilu qudc gia tren the gidi da dua ra cac gdi kich thich kinh te va chuong trinh dau tu
cdng cdng nham phat trien be thdng ca sd ha tang. Vi dy, Anh da thdng bao chuang trinh cat giam thue VAT; Dflc dua ra gdi cfln trg nham vao cac doanh nghiep vua va nhd (SMEs) gap khd khan trong viec tiep can ngudn vdn. Cue Dy tru Lien bang My da cat giam lai suat xudng mflc gan kbdng. Cac gdi kich thich cflng dugc dua ra bdi nhieu nudc dang phat trien chiu tac ddng tieu eye tfl cugc khflng hoang kinh te. Vi dy, Chinh phu Trung Qudc da dua ra gdi kich thich kinh te te khoang gan 600 ty USD vao thang 11/2008. Dfl cd quy md nhd hon nhung nhieu nudc cflng dua ra cac gdi kich thich tuong ty nhu An Do dua ra gdi kich thich khoang 200 ty Rupees (tuong duong khoang 4 ty USD); Malaysia: 7 ty Ringits (tuong duong khoang 2 ty USD); Philippines: 300 ty Pesos (tuong duong 6,3 ty USD); Thai Lan: 300 ty Bath (tuong duong 8,6 ty USD); va Viet Nam khoang 8 ty USD. Mdt sd qudc gia khac cung dflng bien phap kich thich kinh te bang each . giam thue doanh nghiep nbu Philippines giam tu 35% xudng cdn 30%; Han Qudc giam tfl 13 - 25% xudng cdn 10 - 20%. Chinb nhung gdi kich thich va chuang trinh nay se cd tac dgng tich eye den boat dgng FDI neu cac dy an nay cho phep cac doanh nghiep nudc ngoai tham gia va khdng bi phan biet ddi xfl.
iii) Nhicng chinh sdch qudc ti
Tren quy md qudc te, nhieu giai phap cung dugc dua ra. Trong Hdi nghi Thugng dinh cfla nhdm cac nudc G20 tai London (Anh) ngay 2/4/2009, lanh dao cac nudc da cam ket "...se giam thieu tac ddng tieu eye cfla chinb sach trong nudc den thuong mai va dau tu nhu chinh sach tai khoa, va nhung hanh dgng nham flng hd ITnb vyc tai cbinh". Hg cflng cam ket them
"Chflng tdi se khdng quay trd lai chfl nghTa bao hd ve tai chinb, cy the kbdng thyc bien nhu'ng bien phap ngan cban hay can trd sy di chuyen tai chinh tren pham vi toan cau, nhat la ddi vdi cac nudc dang phat trien". Ve tdng the, cac nudc nay da cam ket cbi 1,1 nghin ty USD
NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHINH TRI THE GIOI Sd 8 (160) 2009- 21
Mdt sd danh gia vd tac ddng cua cugc khung hoang. Vu Qudc H u y - L e Van Chidn
nham khdi phuc tang trudng kinh te, tang trudng tin dyng, tao cdng an viec lam tren toan the gidi. Gin day, cac nudc OECD da thflc due cac cbinh phfl hanh ddng nham md rdng ban mdi trucmg dau tu the gidi. Vdi nhirng cam ket tren, mac dfl nd khdng cd tac dgng tryc tiep lam tang hon khdi lugng FDI nhung it nbat nd cung ngan cban sy binh thanh mdt chfl nghTa bao hd mdi. Mdt tac dung cd the de nhan biet hon la cam ket nay se danh it nhat 250 ty USD trong vdng hai nam tdi nham flng hd boat ddng ngoai thuong [UNCTAD, 2009]. Bdi vi, eac cdng ty xuyen qudc gia la cac cdng ty tham gia manh me vao cac boat ddng ngoai thuong nen bat cu tac ddng nao lam gia tang boat ddng ngoai thuong cung lam lgi cho cae TNCs nay.
3.2. Mgt so kien nghi chinh sdch
Phan nay chflng tdi de xuat mgt sd chinh sach nham tang cudng tbu but FDI d cac nudc dang phat trien. Nhung bai bgc nay cd the cflng la tham khao bun ich cho tinh hinh Viet Nam bien nay.
Mdt la, ky kit cdc hiep dinh ddu tu khu vuc.
Mgt trong nhiing thach thu'c co ban ddi vdi cac nudc dang phat trien la lam the nao duy tri dugc sflc bap dan ddi vdi FDI trong thdi ky khflng hoang, dac biet la nhung dy an dau tu phyc vy cho myc tieu phat trien dai ban va tang cudng nang lye canh tranh cfla hg (vi du nhu cac dy an trong ITnb vyc ket cau ha ting, ndng nghiep, nang lugng va cdng nghe). Cae cbinh sach diu tu cdng da tbi hanh d mdt sd qudc gia nhu da trinb bay d tren cd the cd nhung bieu flng ticb eye ddi vdi FDI. Tuy vay, nhung gdi kich thich khdng Id nhu vay cd thi khdng phai la lya chgn de dang ddi vdi mgt sd nudc dang phat triln.
Trong bdi eanh nhu vay, cac hiep dinh diu tu song phuang hoac khu vyc, nhit la nhirng thda thuan md rgng quan he doi tac kinh tl cd thi khuyen khich FDI.
Hai lit, ed chinh sdch giup cdc'TNCs thuc hiin hiiu qud chiin luqc tiit kiim chi phi.
Trong thdi ky khflng hoang, cac cdng ty xuyen qudc gia cd the xem xet viec ddng cira cac chi nhanh cfla hg hoac chuyen den nhirng noi co muc chi phi thap hon. De tranh nhimg hien tugng thoai lui' dau tu nhu vay, chinh phfl cac qudc gia dang phat trien nen can nhac mgt so giai phap chinh sach nham giflp cac TNCs thuc ; hien hieu qua hon chien lugc tiet kiem chi phi cfla hg. Sfl dyng bien phap mien giam thue doanh nghiep nbu mdt phan cua gdi kich thich cfla minh cd the la mgt lya chgn khdn ngoan cho cac nudc dang phat trien.
Tuy nhien, mgi nd Iyc cfla cae qude gia trong viee hap dan va duy tri ngudn vdn FDI phai dam bao khdng din den "mdt cugc chay dua ve day". NghTa la phai tranh cac chinb sach ha thap cac tieu chuan ve mdi trudng va xa hdi hoac dua ra cac uu tien ve tai chinh, thue khda khdng mang tinh ben vung. Phdi bgp hanh dgng quoc te hoac trong pham vi khu vyc la mdt giai phap de tranh nhung hau qua nhu tren.
Thic ba, kiin loan bd mdy cde ca quan keu gqi vd qudn ly ddu tu. Khflng hoang cflng la ca hgi de xem xet, danh gia lai hieu qua lam viec cfla eac co quan cd chflc nang thu hflt, quan ly FDI. Cae co quan nay phai xem xet lai cac boat dgng cfla chinh minh, bao gdm: i) Co quan quan ly FDI can quan tam den nhung nha dau tu dang boat ddng tren lanb thd cfla minh, thyc hien nhflng' giai .phap cd the nham giam thieu nhung tac ddng cua khflng hoang den hoat ddng cfla hg. Cac dich vy sau cap phep can nham muc tieu giam nhe tac hai cfla da suy giam kinh te va giflp eac cdng ty nay dieu cbinh hoat ddng cho phfl hgp vdi tinh hinh mdi. ii) Khdng phai la tat ca cac nganh cdng nghigp diu bi anh hudng gidng nbau tu khung hoang, vi vay trong no Iyc khuyen khich dau tu cfla minh, cac eo quan quan ly dau tu can than trgng dua ra nhimg chinh sach phfl hgp vdi tumg ITnh vyc boat ddng tren co sd trien vgng va ddng lye phat trien cfla
22 -NhOng van de KINH TE VA CHJNH TR! THE GICJI Sd 8 (160) 2009
Vu Qudc Huy - Le Van Chidn Mdt so danh gia ve tac dgng cua cugc khung hoang...
timg nganb. iii) Cac co quan quan ly dau tu can tang cucrng vai trd cfla minh trong viec cai thien mdi trucmg dau tu thdng qua viec xay dyng chinh sach. Nhfl'ng giai phap nay nen nham vao giai quyet nbu'ng kbd khan ngan ban ma cac nha dau tu dang phai ddi mat trong thdi ky khflng hoang nhu sflc mua tren tbi trudng tang trudng chain, xuat kbau giam... nhung cflng nham giai quyet nhu'ng van de dai ban khac nhu nang cao nang Iyc canh tranh cfla cac doanb nghiep, va cfla qudc gia. iv) Cac co quan quan ly dau tu can nd lye nang cao hieu qua bang viec hudng cac ngudn lye chay vao nhung ITnh vyc mang lai hieu qua cao nhat, nang cao trinh do ngudn nhan Iyc hay danh gia thudng xuyen hieu qua boat dgng cfla cac nganh.
Thic tic, uu liin "chdm sde " cdc nhd ddu tu hiin hieu. Trong thdi gian khflng boang va trong dieu kien ngan sach ngay cang ban hep, cac co quan quan ly dau tu nen danb uu tien cho nhung hoat dgng bd trg dau tu va nen tap trung vao cac nlia dau tu bien bun. Nhung boat dgng da dugc coi la tdt va cd hieu qua trong thdi gian trudc kbi dien ra khflng boang can dugc can nliac tbirc hien manh me hon trong dieu kien hien nay.
4. Ket luan
Khung hoang kinh te the gidi dang dat ra nhung thach thflc mdi cho nhflng cbinh sach khuyen khich FDI cfla cac nudc dang phat trien.
Ddi vdi hg, lam the nao de duy tri sy hap dan ddi vdi cac nha dau tu nudc ngoai nham "giu- ehan" cac nha dau tu hien hu'u va thu hut them cac nba dau tu mdi trong dieu kien kinh te toan cau suy giam dang la van de quan tam Idn. Cac gdi kich cau cd the cd tac dung tich eye ddi vdi FDI nhung nhieu nudc dang phat trien khdng du ngudn tai chinb de cd the canh tranh thanb cdng vdi nhflng gdi kich thich dau tu dugc dua ra bdi cac nudc phat trien. Do vay. cac qudc gia dang phat trien can dat trgng tam vao nd lye cai thien mdi trudng dau tu cfla hg. Kbdng cbi nhung chinh sach ddi phd nhanh ma quan trgng ban la phai tai cau trflc lai nen kinh te va cai each the che nham nang cao nang lire canh tranh dai ban trong thu hut FDI. Cac co quan khuyen kbich va quan ly FDI can ddng vai trd' chinb trong viec cham sde cac nba dau tu bien hun va trong viec thyc thi cac chuong trinh hap dan FDI*
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. IMF (2008): Global Economic Ottllook: Financial Stress. Dowiiiitnis and Recoveries,
• Washington D.C.
2. IMI' (2009): Glohul Economic Outlook: Crisis and Kecoveiy, Wasliiiiglon. D.C.
3. UNCr.AD (2008a): iVorld hivcsliucnl Prospecls Siirvev 200S - 201(1. United Nations PLibiicaliiin New York and Genc\a.
4. UNCTAD (2008b): IVorld Iriveslmeni Reporl 2(I0H: Transiiutionul (.'orporolioiis ami the Infrastructure Challenge, United Nations publication. New York and Geneva.
5. UNCTAD (2009): Ihe Role of Iiilerniiiioiial Investment .igreeiiicnis in .4tiriicliiig P'orcigii DirccI Iiivesliiu'iil lo Developing C'oiiiilrii's. United Nations I'ublication. New York and (jeneva.
6. United Nations (2009): Word Ecimoniic Siliialiim and Prospecls 2009. United Nations Publication. New York and Geneva,
7. World Bank (2009): Global Pcoiiomic Prospecls 200'/, f'orecitsi Updiilc, Washington D.C.
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