Phan tich nhu cau thj tru'cmg va danh gia tmh kha thi
cua diT an kinh doanh thu'c pham tuf hoa
NGCIYIN THI BiCH VAN' TRAN NGAN THAO"
N G U Y I N HOANG KIM NGAN'"
LAM THIEN QaV"- Tom tat
Bdng phUffng phdp nghiin cdu dinh linh, kit hffp sd dung phUffng phdp nghien ciiu dinh lUffng qua khdo sdl 620 mdu, nghien cdu da xdc dinh nhu cdu thi trudng doi vdi cdc logi thuc phdm td hoa, dong thdi ddnh gid tinh khd thi cua du dn thong qua cdc chi sdtai chinh, nhU; NPV, IRR vd diem hda vo'n. Ki't qud nghiin cdu cho thdy, thi trudng cd nhu cdu khd cao vdi logi thuc phdm ndy vd dtidn co tinh khd thi cao, ddng deddu tu.
Tuf khoa: nhu cdu thi trudng, tinh khd thi cua dudn, thUc phd'm tii hoa Summary
With a survey of 620 respondents and by qualitative and quantitative methods, this research determines markel demand for food made from fiowers and evaluates the feasibility of the project through financial indicators such as NPV. IRR and break-even point. The result shows that there is a high demand for this kind of food and the project is feasible and worth investment.
Keywords: market demand, feasibility ofa project, food made from fiowers Giai THIEU
Viet Nam la mpt nrfdc cd khi hau nhiet ddi gio miia, phan hoa thidn nhidn da dang. Vi vSy, da't nrfdc chung ta cd mdt tham thrfe vat phong phu, da dang va nhieu ehung loai dac sac mang lai gia tri ldi ieh cao ma gia thanh lai re, trong dd cd loai hoa. Dd la mdt the' manh de chung ta cd the tSn dung nguon tai nguyen do vao viec phat trid'n am thrfe ve hoa iheo
HIMH 1: MO HJMH 5 AP LCTC CANH TRAMH
Sue manh nha
DDI thii canh tranh tiem an
1
•
Doi thii canh tranh tmc tiep
1
Nguy CO san pham thay the
Sire manh khach hang
mua. Tuy nhien, tbi trrfdng am ihifc lai TP. Ho Chi Minh cho thS'y, a'm thrfe ve hoa cdn kha mdi me va hien chrfa co nha hang nao kinh doanh thu^n tuy ciic mdn an nay, trff mdt nha hSng chay co vai mdn an tif hoa.
Chinh vi vay, vide phan tich nhu cau thi trrfdng va danh gi^ tinh kha thi cua d^
an kinh doanh thrfe pham tff hoa la y irfdng hay, gdp phan phat trien du ljch trong nrfdc khi tao drfdc d§'u a'n ve am thrfe Viet Nam, cung nhrf gop phan phat trie'n nong nghidp trong linh vrfc trong hoa, tao them vide lam mdi cho ndng dan.
c a s d LY THUYET VA PHaONC PHAP NGHIEN CLfU
Cffsdly thuyet Hdnh vi ngUdi tiiu phan ffng cua khach har^
cua nhffng kich thich bi.
trinh tam ly bdn trong di
'•^''ii'g la nhffng ''fdi lac dpng
'iii va qud hdng qua 'TbS., ••, * " , ' " " , Trrfdng Dai hoc Van Lang
Ngdy nhan bdi. 02/10/2019; Ngdy thdm dinh: 18/10/2019: Ngdy duySl ddng: 23/10/2019
92
qua trinh quye't dinh lrfa ehon hang hda, djch vu (Philip Kotler, 1994).
Dd'i vdi tS^t ca cac doanh nghidp, trong qua trinh hoat dpng, doanh nghidp ludn bi tac ddng bdi cac ye'u to' mdi trrfdng, ca bdn trong lin ben ngoai. Theo do, cac yd'u td' thupc mdi trrfdng nganh cd tac ddng manh me den hoat dpng cua doanh nghiep.
Mo hinh 5 dp lUc cgnh tranh eua Michael Porter (1979) drfpc su" dung nhieu trong phan tieh ldi thd' kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep thdng qua 5 ap Irfc canh tranh ma ba't ky nganh cdng nghidp nao tren thi trrfdng cung phai chiu (Hinh I).
Ben canh dd, nghien cffu cung sff dung ma IrSn SWOT cua Urick va Orr drfdc gidi thieu tai Anh nam 1964 nham nhan dien didm manh, die'm ye'u, cd hdi va thach thffc cua id chffc (Kwamena Nyarku and Gloria K. Q. Agyapong, 2011). Theo ma Iran nay, phan tich eac yd'u to' ben trong Id' chffc, nhrf: nguon nhan life, nguon Iffe vat cha'l va tai chinh, cdng nghe, hang hda, ph^n phd'i... dd' xac dinh cac die'm manh, die'm ye'u eiia td chffc; edn phan tich cfic yd'u td'bdn ngoai doanh nghidp de xac dinh cac ed hdi va thaeh thrfe cua td chffc.
Md hinh Hdnh vi tieu dUng cua Philip Koller (1994) dffa ra c^c nhSn td'cd anh hrfdng de'n hanh vi ciia ngrfdi tidu dung ddi vdi cdc san pham. Tren ed sd nhan thffc rd dffdc hanh vi ciia ngrfdi tidu diing, doanh nghidp se ed can cff cha'e ehan de' tra ldi cac van de hen quan tdi cac chid'n Iffdc marketing can vach ra (Hinh 2).
PhiMngphdp nghian cdu Bai vie't dung phrfdng phap nghien cffu dinh linh de' phSn tich nhu cau thi trrfdng Clia san pham trf hoa va phan tich mdi trffdng kinh doanh tai TP. Ho Chi Minh Ihdng qua khao sat y kie'n cua 620 cff dan tai TP. Ho Chi Minh tff thang 06- 08/2019, Ben canh dd, nghidn cffu dffa ra cac gia dinh tinh hud'ng kinh doanh ^e lap ke'hoach tai ehinh va sff dung cae chi so' hien gia thuan (NPV), ty sua't sinh ldi ndi bp (IRR) va doanh thu hda vd'n de' danh gia tinh kha thi cua dff an kinh doanh thffc pham tff hoa {Bdi viel su'dung cdch vii'l so thdp phdn theo chudn qudc le).
KET QUA NGHIEN cCu
Phdn tich moi trddng kinh doanh Thi trffdng kinh doanh quan an, nha hang hidn nay tai TP. Ho Chi Minh ndi ridng va Viet Nam ndi chung rat manh
HINH 2: MO HINH HAMH VI TIEU DCIMG kich thich cua
Maikeiing San pham G i i
P h v c n g phap phan phoi Dia <£an Khuyen mil
Cdc tac nhan kich thich
K m h t e Khoa hpc ki
Chinh tri
V i „ h 6 .
=>
D i e diem
Van hoa
X J h o i
C a t i n h Tialy
Qua trinh ra quyet itinh ciia
Nhan t h l k ve
Tim kiem thong
Danh gia Quyet dinh Hanh-vi mua
Quyet
Lua chon san pham
Dinh $6 Iugng mua
BAMG 1: K E T Q G A PHAM TICH MA TRAM S W O T C O A D d A M KIMH DOAMH Digm m^nh
51- San pham mdi la. dep mat, ngon va tot cho su'c khoe 52- It doi thu canh tranh
53- Gcfi nhd den nhSng gia tn co xifa
54- Tong help nhu'ng mon an tCf khap viing mien To quoc CcfhOi
0 1 - Nguon khach du lich va ngUcfi dam me am thUc m6i la ngay c^ng nhi^u
02- Nguyen vat li6u ngay cang da dang phong phli hdn 0 3 - Hau nhir chifa c6 nh& hang niio chl siJ dung hoa la nguySn Heu cho toan thu'c ddn
04- Sir lu'a chon mfin an vl su'c khoe ngay cang difdc ifu lien hiing dau
05- Chinh phu co nhiJng chinh sach u^i dai gnip h5 trd cho cdc du an khdi nghiep
DiSm yd'u
W l - Chu'a CO vi the', thu'dng hifeu tr&n ihi tru'dng W2- Vo'n dau tif con han che W3- Chifa CO kinh nghiem quan ly
Thach thtfc
T l - Nguon khach hang khdng T2- Nguon cung cap nguyen vat lieu chUa dn dinh (cd the tang gia, chifa dim bao chS't lu'dng)
T3- Sif ddi hoi cua khach hang ngay cang cao nhu^g lai mong mud'n giA thSnh thap
me. Nhffng neu Iffa chpn md hinh kinh doanh vdi phong each ddc dao va mdn an dac trffng, ihi van ludn thu hut khaeh hang.
Cac ap Iffc canh tranh dd'i vdi dff an nay bao gom:
- Dd'i thu eanh tranh trffc tie'p: cac nha hang, thffc pham dac trffng cua cac qud'c gia khae nhau da cd mat tff lau va kha ndi tie'ng tai TP. Ho Chi Minh, nhff: My cay Sasin, Naga, cac nha hang nffdng lau cua Han Qud'c, Nhat Ban, nhff: Sumo, Kichi - Kichi, King BBQ..., nha hang lau nam Ashimi...
- Dd'i thu eanh tranh liem an; eac nha hang, quan an vdi thffc pham dac trffng vung mien, nhff: Phd Ong HiJng, Mdn Hue. cdm ga Phu Yen, dac biet la cac quan ehay, cung ed nguy cd thay ddi hinh thffc kinh doanh de trd thanh dd'i thu canh tranh trffc tid'p ne'u nhan tha'y loai thffc pham tff hoa phu hop vdi tieu chi kinh doanh eua ho.
- khaeh hang: cd the bao phu ta't ca eff dan d mpi dd tudi, cho ndn hp cd nhieu sff Iffa chpn do s5 thich, nhu cau khac nhau.
- Nha cung cap: Cac nha phan phdi nguyen lieu dd che bid'n thffc pham, nhff: Sieu thi thien nhien, Gia yi Viet, Nong san Dung Ha, Nha thud'c y hoc ed truyen An Qud'c Thai, Sieu thi Thffc pham nhanh...
- San pham thay the': dff an chi lap trung cung cap eae thffc pham lam tff hoa, do vay, san pham thay thd'
Economv and Fnrei^ii>.t Rpi
93
BIEU DO 1: THOMG KE MAG THEO DO TGOI
BIEG DO 2: THONG KE MAG THEO THG MHAP 2.6%
• Du'Cfi lOln&u
• Tu' 10-dLF(>i 20 tneu
• Tir 20-JO tneu
• Tren 30 trieu
BIEG DO 3: LY DO CHOM S(I DgMG THCfC PHAM CHE BIEM TCf HOA 60 0% 57.1% 57.19-0 50 0%
40 0% ^ B ^M 03 =« 35 1%
30 0%
II
Nguon T a r gia khao S;U va tmh coan
ed the cac mdn an chay, mdn an dac trffng tff eae qud'c gia khac nhau.
Tff kd't qua d Bang 1 cho tha'y, lac gta de xua't dif an xac dinh chie'n lifdc kinh doanh thffe pham tff hoa nhif sau: STI: khae biel hda ve san pham; ST2: chid'n Iffdc truyen thdng; ST3: chie'n Iffdc tim kie'm dd'i tac; ST4:
chien Iffpc dao lao dpi ngu.
Xdc dinh nhu cdu thi tridng
Nghidn effu khao sat trdn 620 khach hang lai TP.
Ho Chl Minh, kd't qua thu dffdc nhff sau:
Mlic do .sdn sdng sd dung sdn phdm
Kd't qua khao sat cho tha'y, dd'i tffdng khach hang dffdc khao sat cd mffc dp quan tSm dd'n loai thffc pham tff hoa kha eao (chie'm 84%).
Ddc diem khdch hdng theo dd tudi
Ke't qua khao sal eho tha'y, dd'i tffdng khach hang dffdc khao s^t phan bd day du d eac dp tuoi, nen mau khao sat cd tinh dai dien cao (Bieu dd 1).
Ddc diem khdch hdng theo ihu nhdp Ke't qua khao sat cho iha\. ddi tffpng khach hang cd thu nhap difdi 10_,tri^u dong chie'm ty le eao (72,S'.) (Bidu do 2). DSy Cling la mfic thu nhap kha pho bie'n trong xa hdi va khdng thudc mffc thu nhap eao, ndn y kie'n cua hp ve viec sff dung san pham cua dff an se la cd sd td't cho dff an.
Ly do khdch hang chgn sddung thucphdm Ke't qua khao sat cho tha'y, hOn 50%
khach hang quan lam de'n nh& hang ttt nguon gia dinh, ban be, ngffdi than gidi thidu va tff nguon mang xa hdi binh luan, gidi thieu, dong thdi phai di kem vdi chai Iffpng eae mdn an (Bieu do 3). Nhff vgy, trffdc mat dff an can cd chffdng trinh va ke'hoach de quang ba, tuyen truyen, gidi thieu trdn cac kenh mang xa hdi de tiep can thi trffdng.
Ke hogch tdi chinh vd ddnh gid tinh khd thi cua du dn
Cdc gid dinh cff hdn ldm cff sd cho ke hogch tdi chinh dudn cu the Id:
' Cac thanh vien sang lap gdp 70%
vd'n trdn ldng vd'n dau tff cua tdng dff dn, 30% con lai se vay vd'n tff Ngan hang Phffdng Ddng (OCB) vdi lai suat 15%/
nam (lai suat cua OCB vao thdi di^m Ihang 06/2019).
- Ty sua't sinh ldi ky vpng la 20%.
- Chl phi khac bao gdm: tiln bao tri dff tru, hao hut nguydn vat lieu...
- Sff dung each linh kha'u hao tai san theo phu'dng phap dffdng thing.
- Thue' Ihu nhap doanh nghiep hang nam khdng ddi la 20%.
Xdc dinh doanh thu
Nguon doanh thu chinh ciia dff an chu yd'u dd'n tff vide cung cap cae thffc phani diTPc che' bie'n tff hoa, bao gdm cac mon an va nffdc ud'ng. Thffc ddn cua nha hang gdm 118 mdn, trong dd co 36 mdn an. 20 mon banh va kem va 39 loai tra.
Xdc dinh chi phi
Chl phi eua dif an bao gdm: Chi phi dau tff ban dau de xay difng quan dffa vao hoat ddng va vd'n Iffu dpng dd' hoat ddng trong nam dau lien; Chi phi dang ky kinh doanh la phan ehi phi diing de dang k^
vdi ed quan nha ntfi-: i-anh lap doanh 'I va phattrien lg de nghidn neng eho in 5 nam, 'rang.
'''a dudn
!y suS't nghidp; Chi phinghiL
san pham la phan chi i:
cffu tao ra cdng thffe, i, quan; Tien thud mat bSi nen thue se dffpc tra the.
Ddnh gid hieu qud tdi Ke't qua tiJ Bang 2 ch
94
Si' Nfim Doanh thu - San pham chij life - San ph^m khac GM von hang ban Ldi nhuan gop Chl phi Kha'u hao
EBIT (ldi nhuan mrdc lai vay va thu6')
Lai vay
EBT (ldi nhu3n tri/dc thufi") Thue
EAT (Wi nhu3n sau thue) Doanh thu thuan T^ng vd'n dau tif Dong ti^n thu ve LSCK (lai suSit chiet kha'u) IRR
NPV
BAMG 2: KET QGA HOAT DQNG KINH DOAMH TRONG 5 NAM NSmO
(1,513,194,000) (1,513,194,000) 20%
36.4%
646,544,641 m m i 3.321.990,000
863,190,000 2,458,800.000 (l,161,4S4.061) 2,160,505,940 (1.489.760,000) (333.461,400) 337,284.540 (34,046.865) 303,237,675 (60.647,535) 242,590,140 576,051,540 576,051,540
Nam 2 3,391,335.000
880.155.000 2,511,180,000 (1,163,497,080) 2.227,837,921 (1,489,760.000) (383,768,100) 354,309,821 (34.046.865) 320,262,956 (64,052.591) 256,210,364 639,978,464 639,978,464
Nam 3 3.460,680.000
900,120.000 2,560,560,000 (1,165,510,099) 2,295,169,902 (1,489,760,000) (495.272,160) 310,137,742
310,137,742 (62,027.548) 248,110,193 743,382,353 743,382,353
Nam 4 3,563,535,000
925,035,000 2,638,500,000 (1,167,523,118) 2.396,011,883 (1,489,760.000) (548,653,860) 357,598.023
357,598,023 {71,519,605}
286,078,418 834,732,278 834,732,278
Don VI nghin ddng Nam 5 3,746,410,000
971,860,000 2,774,550,000 (1,169,536,137) 2,576,873,864 (1,489,760,000) (659.485.920) 427,627,944
427,627,944 (85,525,589) 342,102,355 1,001,588,275 1,001,588,275
rigu.
sinh Ipi IRR = 36.4%/nam > Chi phi cd hpi vdi lai suat 20%/nam.
Ddng lien chie'l kha'u 5 nam theo ldi su&'t chid't kha'u la NPV= 646,544,64Id > Od.
Thdi gian hda vd'n la 42 thang < 60 thang.
Nhff vay, kd'l qua phan lieh lai chinh cho thay, dif an cd tinh kha thi va dang dau tff.
KET LUAN
D\i an kinh doanh thffe pham tff hoa tap trung vao cac san pha'm la thffc pham vdi thanh phan ehu dao la hoa dffa tren eac edng thffc dffdc thid'l kd' ridng va khdng ngffng sang tao cat mdi mang
de'n cho thffe khaeh nhffng eac nhin mdi me, ddc dao hdn. Gia tri ma dff an mang lai khdng ehi d nam d vide thffdng thffc nhffng mdn an, Ihffc ud'ng trong thffc ddn ma edn la nen van ho^, am thffc lau ddi tff cic viing dat khac nhau long ghep trong nhffng mdn an. La'y hoa lam hinh thffc, lay cau ehuyen va van hoa lam co't ldi vdi mong mud'n khach hang du'dc thffdng thfic nhieu hdn gia tri cua mdi bffa an khi dd'n vdi nha hang. Chinh vi vSy, san pham nhan dffdc sff quan tam va hffdng ffng cua khach hang.
Ke't qua khao sat thi trffdng eung nhtf ke'l qua phan tieh tai ehinh cua dff an trong 5 nam cho tha'y, day la dff an kha mdi me va cd tinh kha thi cao. Ne'u dff an nay dffpc thffc hien, thi se ed the tao ra mdt khdng gian ly tffdng de thffdng thffc nhffng mdn an lam tff nguyen vat lidu la hoa va truyen ba net van hda am thffc ntfdc nha va gdp phan phat trien kinh td'.Q
TAI LI^U THAM KHAO
1. Bui Hffu Phffdc (2014). Tdi chinh doanh nghiep, Nxb Kinh te TP. Ho Chi Minh 2. Dinh Thd' Hien (2008). Qudn tri tdi chinh ddu tu, Nxb Lao ddng Xa hpi
3. Dinh Thd'Hien (2015). Lap vd thdm dinh dudn ddu tu, Nxb Kinh te'TP. Ho Chi Minh 4. Dan Tho (2016). Lap ki'hogch vd khdi .sukinh doanh, Nxb Tai ehinh
5. Nguydn Dinh Thp (2011). PhUffng phdp nghien cdu khoa hgc trong kinh doanh, Nxb Lao dpng Xa hpi
6. Philip Kotler (1994). Nhihig nguyin ly lii'p thi. Tap 1 va 2, Nxb Thanh phd' Ho Chi Minh 7. Ries, Eric (2018). Khdi nghiip tinh gon, Nxb Thdi dai
8. Kwamena Nyarku and Gloria K. Q. Agyapong (2011). Rediscovering SWOT analysis: The extended version, Academic Leadership, 9(2)
9. M. E. Porter (1979). How Competitive Forces Shape Strategy, Harvard Business Review, f>l{T), 137-145
Economy and ForeLast Revi'