fiLEWH Trie v A ^ I J A H f I v Y
TUr KHUNG HOANG
BAN VE VAI TRO CUA BAN TAY HUU HINH TRONG NEN KINH TE
95
Nauven Bach Khoa Pham Thi Tue **
-hung hoang kinh te the gidi bat dau tQ cuoc khung hoang tai chinh My cudi nam 2007, tQ do khung hoang da lan ra tdi quy md toan the gidi. Theo danh gia cCia cac chuyen gia kinh today khdng chi la cuoc khung hoang tai chinh ma la mgt cuoc tong khung hoang, tren tat ca cac phuang dien tai chinh, san xuat, thuang mai, dich vu va suy thoai kinh tetoan cau hien nay dugc danh gia la tram trgng nha't ke tU tam muai nam qua. Bai viet se de cap tdi di§n bien khung hoang.
phan tich nhQng nguyen nhan tn/c tiep, nguyen nhan ben ngoai, tim ra nhQng nguyen nhan ben trong mang tinh ban chat cua khung hoang, tQ do rut ra nhQng bai hgc hOu ich doi vdi Viet Nam.
1. Di6n bien cua khung hoang
Xuat phat diem cCia khCing hoang la sir hinh thanh bong bdng tren thi tru'dng bat ddng san b My. Bong bdng bat ddng san hinh thanh tCr ket qua cua viec FED duy tri chi'nh sach lai suat thap de ki'ch thfch dau tu trong nen kinh te sau su" kien khung bd nSim 2001. Lai sua't thap cpng vdi cac dieu kien cho vay ndi long da khuyen khich ngudi di vay dau tu, dSc biet dau tu' vao bait ddng san.
Trong thdi gian nay de mua nha, ngu'di mua chi can tra ngay khoang 20% gia tri cSn nha, cdn lai se tra gdp trong vdng 20 nam (ho^c lau hon) vdi lai suat thap [4]. Viec ndi long dieu kien cho vay cua cac ngan hang, vf du nhu nhu'ng ngu'di cd
"xep hang mCrc dp tfn dung kem" cung d§ vay tien mua nha, nhGrng ngudi cd ft hoSc khdng cd giay td chCrng minh thu nhap, tham chf khdng thu nhap, khdng nghe nghiep, khdng tai san cung cd the vay de mua nha vdi tai san the chap la chfnh can nha do... dan tdi cac khoan "cho vay dudi chuan"
cua ngan hang tang cao, Trong giai doan 2004 - 2006 cho vay the chap dudi chuan chiem khoang 2 1 % td'ng cac khoan vay the chaip, tang so vdi mifc 9% giai doan 1996 - 2004, chi tfnh rieng nam
2006 tdng trj gia cac khoan vay the chap len tdi 600 ty ddia, b l n g 1/5 thi trudng cho vay mua nha d My [4], Lai suat thap, dieu kien chd vay de dang lam cho viec mua nha khdng phai vi nhu cau sCr dung ma trd thanh co hpi dau tu: cho thue kiem Idi hoac doi gia nha tang len ban kiem Idi, Dieu nay lam tang cau ve bat ddng san, hien tugng dau ra bat ddng san lam gia nha dat duoc day len t h e ^ kieu "bong bdng".
De giam thieu rCii ro, cac ngan hang cho vay the chap bat dpng san da ddng gdi cac khoan no thanh nhUng chutig khoan cd ten goi gia'y ng cd the chap (CDO: Collaterised Debt Obligation) cac CDO nay dUOc ban lai cho cac nha dau tu Lam nhu vay ngan hang da bien nhUng nha dau tU (mua chdng khoan) trd thanh nhiing ngudi cho vay. Ngan hang luc nay chi ddng vai trd trung gian va thu phf dich vu de kiem Idi va day loan bd rui ro sang cho nha dau tu chung khoan, Khdng nhung dan chung mua nha ma cac ngan hang, cdng ty tai chfnh, quy tin dung, nha dau tU nUdc
GS. TS., Trudng Dai hoc Thuang mai
* TS., Trudng Dai hoc Thi/ana mai
KESH I E VA ftUAX LY
ngoai cung tin tudng mu quang vao tUOng lai cua thi trudng bat dong san.
Khi iai suat tang len, mdn no mua nha bong tang vpt, ngudi di vay mua nha mat kha nang chi tra vi khdng de dang ban dugc nha, thi trudng nha dat roi vao tinh trang ddng bang. Den luc nay cac ngan hang mdi nhan tha'y cac khoan no xau, no khd ddi tSng vpt. TC/thang 3/2007 nhieu tap doan tai chinh cho vay the chap bat ddng san cdng bd nhufng khoan thua lo khoang 150 ty ddIa tU cac khoan no xau, trong dd cd hon 50% lien quan den cac khoan cho vay mua nha [5]. Sau dd hang loat cac ngan hang Idn b phd Wall nhu Bears Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley cdng bd nhiing khoan tham hut tai san nhieu ty ddla. Cu the Citigroup thdng bao loi nhuan thuan quy 3 giam 60% so vdi nam ngoai (khoang 2 ty ddla). Id tir cac khoan cho vay bat ddng san duoc chdng khoan hda khoang 1,3 ty ddla [3].
Chua het, do cac khoan vay no xau nay dugc chumg khoan hda thanh cac loai cd phieu dem giao dich tren thi trUdng chdng khoan vi the sU do vd cCia thj trudng nha dat My lam cho cac chung khoan nay mat gia din tdi su pha san cua hang loat ngan hang Idn b My, Chau Au. Theo hieu ung ddmind cuoc khung hoang tfn dung nha dat d My da lay lan va tan pha nang ne he thd'ng tai chi'nh toan cau. Theo IMF thiet hai cua khung hoang tai chi'nh hien nay len tdi 945 ty ddla. Khung hoang tai chi'nh b My da lan ra thj trUdng the gidi, cac san chdng khoan cua cac nUdc giam manh. Trong cac nen kinh te phat trien, he thdng tai chi'nh la huyet mach cua nen kinh te nen khi gap khung hoang nd se lam tat ca cac hoat ddng kinh te khac dinh tre. Ngan hang khi mat kha nang thanh khoan da giam han mCrc tin dung, khien cac doanh nghiep khd tiep can thj trudng vdn va anh hudng true tiep den hoat ddng san xuat kinh doanh. Viec t§c nghen cua ddng vd'n dau tu lai keo theo su suy giam cua san xuat, tieu dung, xuat nhap khau, lam cho hang trieu ngUdi that nghiep, dUa tdi nhijmg xao tron chi'nh trj xa hoi khdng phai chi b mdt nudc ma b nhieu nudc. Khung hoang tai chfnh da keo theo suy thoai kinh te toan cau.
2. Nguyen nhan cua khung hoang
Nguyen nhan true tiep cua cude khung hoang d My la viec ki'ch cau tieu dung qua mCrc va cho vay dudi chuan, cac hoat ddng dau co tai chfnh vao bat ddng san va cac san pham tai chfnh hda da tao ra cac bong bdng tai chfnh khd'ng Id. Tuy nhien theo danh gia cua cac chuyen gia kinh te thi cuoc khung hoang nay cd nguyen nhan sau xa \il chfnh CO cau va dpng luc tang trudng bat hgp ly ci!ia nudc My trong thdi gian qua nhung nd da duoc bd qua bdi cac nha hoach djnh chi'nh sach.
Vao nhung nam dau thap nien 80 cCia the ky XX, dudi thdi Tong thd'ng R. Rigan, mot ly thuyet kinh te mdi da ra ddi b nudc My va nhanh chdng tim dugc su hudng Crng manh me trong ca he thd'ng cac nudc tU ban, dac biet la b Anh vdi ThCi tudng luc dd la M. That - cho. Ly thuyet dd sau nay dupc ngUdi ta gpi la chu nghTa tU do mdi hay la chu nghTa Ri-gan. Hat nhan cua hpc thuyet ti/
do mdi la han che den md'c thap nhat sU can thiep cua chfnh phCi vao ITnh vUc kinh te de cho nen kinh te van hanh tU do hoan toan theo cO che thi trudng.
Trong nhiJng nam qua nen kinh te My da kha thanh cdng vdi md hinh thuc day tang trudng kinh te thdng qua khuyen khfch va day manh tieu dung ndi dja. Tieu dung cua hd gia dinh chiem ty trong cao trong GDP va chiem tdi 70% trong cO cau GDR Tieu dung cija ngudi dan My da dan dan trd nen qua mufc bdi tu tudng lac quan thai qua va dugc khuyen khfch bdi sU de dai cua cac to' chirc tin dung trong cho vay tieu dung. Chinh dieu do da tao khoan tham hut thuong mai cUc Idn va cd da'u hieu ngay cang tang, dong thdi he thd'ng kinh te trd nen d l bj tdn thuong hOn bao gid het bdi cac mdi quan he vay no d§ dai va chdng cheo. Chien lupc nay trong mot thdi gian dai da td ra hieu qua nhung dong thdi nd cung tao ra mdt lo hd'ng Idn trong nen kinh te tao ra sU mat can ddi giUa san xuat va tieu dung, cO sd nay sinh khung hoang sau nay. Tuy nhien theo cac chuyen gia IMF thu pham chi'nh gay ra khung hoang la tinh trang budng Idng quan ly he thd'ng tai chi'nh, cung vdi viec khdng tuan thu ky luat thi trudng cua nen kinh
KHOA HOC
« Thuang Mai So 31/2009
HUSH ftlL
te My. Cu the la su phat trien cua he thd'ng tai chi'nh phi ngan hang (shadow banking system)- gdm cac ngan hang dau tU, cac quy dau co, cac to chLfc cho vay dja d'e... - khdng nam dudi su giam sat cua cac quy che chat che nhu dupe ap dung cho cac ngan hang thuong mai. Do kha nang sang tao qua cao cua cac tap doan tai chfnh trong viec phat trien nhUng cdng cu mdi de phuc vu nhu eau tim kiem lpi nhuan cua cac nha dau tU lam cho he thd'ng tai chfnh khdng duoc kie'm soat nay "phinh to" rat nhanh, den ndi chung trd nen
"qua Idn" va "qua rang budc", cd vai trd quan trong khdng kem he thd'ng ngan hang thuong mai cd kiem soat trong he thd'ng tai chfnh, khien cho viec dd vd dien ra la tat yeu.
Nhu vay tU nhiJng phan tfch tren cd the tha'y rang nguyen nhan true tie'p, bieu hien ra ben ngoai cCia khi!ing hoang la do nhUng bat dn trong quy dinh, kiem soat, giam sat dan tdi sU dd vd cua he thd'ng tai chi'nh tien te; nguyen nhan sau sa hOn, d tang nac sau hon dd la su mat can dd'i giua cung va eau, giufa san xuat va tieu dung eua nen kinh te; nhung nguyen nhan nay deu xuat phat tU han che cCia nen kinh te tu ban chu nghTa tin tudng thai qua vao co che tU dieu chinh eCia thj trudng, khdng can ban tay cua nha nUde.
3. Tir khung ho^ng nhin nhan lai gia trj hoc thuyet kinh td'cua kinh te hoc co dien
Cude khi!ing hoang tai chfnh va khCing hoang kinh te the gidi hien nay cho tha'y sU that bai cua ly thuyet thj trudng tU do mdi ma nUde My dang ap dung, ddng thdi khlng djnh nhung gia trj dung d^n cCia hoc thuyet kinh te cua Karl Marx ve nhung mau thuan cCia ehij nghTa tU ban va nguy CO xay ra khung hoang kinh te.
Hpc thuyet kinh te cua Marx da khing djnh nen kinh te tu ban chij nghTa la nen kinh te vd chi'nh phij do Ipi nhuan la muc tieu hang dau cho mpi hanh vi kinh te, day la nguyen nhan gay ra nguy co khCing hoang tiem tang ben trong chu nghTa tU ban. K. Marx da tUng ndi rang, neu ty suat Ipi nhuan len 300% thi tU treo cd minh len nh^ tu ban cung s i n sang lam, cung chi'nh dng da chi ra rdng, de tao ra nhieu Ipi nhuan, tang
vdng quay cCia ddng vd'n, chu nghTa tu ban se phat then viec phat hanh cd phieu, tfn phieu va trai phieu de kich thich gia tang gia tri cLia tuban gia. Kinh doanh tu ban gia, mdt loai tu ban khdng true tie'p san xuat ra gia trj hang hda nhung cd kha nang tfch trijf gia trj cCia hang hda san xuat dugc eCia xa hdi, cd the chuyen hda thanh tien trong nhufng dieu kien thuan Ipi - vUa cd kha nang lam giau nhanh chdng, vCra ed dieu kien phdng chd'ng riji ro cao hon la lam nha tU ban san xuat. Cung vi muc tieu Ipi nhuan ma cac nha dau tu trd thanh cac nha dau co (nhung nha dau tu chay theo Ipi nhuan bat chap rui ro) tren cac thj trudng phi san xuat nhu la thj trudng tai chi'nh, thj trUdng bat ddng san. Tuong tu nhu vay, Ipi ich ca nhan, chCi nghTa tieu dung theo kieu My lam cho vdng quay "di vay - tieu dung - np - tra np..." van hanh vdi td'c dp qua mCrc kie'm scat ma van tao ra cam giae ai cung cd Ipi. Chi den khi mdt mit xich nho nao dd bi true trie, ching han, mdt doanh nghiep mat kha nang ehi tra hay mpt ca nhan bj that nghiep, thi nha kinh doanh khdng thu dupe tien tU tin dung thuong mai, nha ngan hang khdng ed tien de chi tra - mat kha nang thanh toan. Luc nay mdi vd le ra thuc chat la tu ban gia phinh to qua mure, trd thanh "bong bdng". K. Marx da viet "che dp tfn dung da'y nhanh td'c dp phat trien cac luc lupng san xuat vat chat va su hinh thanh mdt thj trudng the gidi; day hai yeu td dd phat trien den mdt md'c dp nha't djnh vdi tu each la eo sd vat chat ciia mdt hinh thai san xuat mdi, dd chfnh la nhiem vu lich sCr ciia nen san xuat tu ban ehii nghTa. Ddng thdi tfn dung day nhanh sU bung nd du dpi cua mdi mau thuin dd, tufc la nhiing cude khung hoang va do dd, cung lam tang them nhurng yeu td lam tan ra phuong thdc san xuat cu" [1]. Day la nguyen nhan ciia cac cupc dd vd, mat can bang d tat ca cac thj trudng tU thi trUdng tai chfnh den thj trUdng san xuat, thi trudng hang hda den thi trUdng tien te, tU cung den cau, tCr san xuat den tieu dung, theo nhu Idi Marx:
"khung hoang chi ed the do tinh trang khdng can dd'i ciia viee san xuat trong cac nganh khac
KE^M Tfe VA QUAX IS
nhau va do tinh trang khdng can dd'i giufa sutieu dung<;ija ban than cac nha tU ban va su ti'ch luy ciia hp, gay ra" [2]. Dung nhU nhan dinh ciia Frank Furedi, Giao su xa hpi hpc Dai hpc Kent,
"ly thuyet nen tang ciia Marx khf soi roi va nhin thang vao dac tfnh cau true xa hdi da dupe the hien rd d nhCirng su kien gan day... Trong nhieu gdc dp, nhufng gi dng ay (Marx) tha'y chfnh la sU ton tai song song ciia sufc manh hiiy diet nam ben trong he thd'ng chii nghTa tU ban".
Khiing hoang kinh te' the gidi dSn tdi su lung lay nghiem trpng cua hpc thuyet kinh te thj trudng tu do vdi luan diem co ban "hay de thj trudng tu quye't va hanh xQ nhOng van de ciia nd", ly thuyet nay da chi phd'i sU van hanh ciia nen kinh te My sud't mdt thdi gian dai tU nhufng nam 80 cua the ky 20 den nay, bat dau tU nhiem ky cua tdng thd'ng Rolnald Reagan. Ly thuyet kinh te thi trudng tu do ma Ronald Reagan va Magaret Thatcher ap dung lam hoi sinh nen kinh te My va Anh trong nhiing nam 1980 dUa tren quan diem cua trudng phai
"nha nude yeu" hay "nha nudc td'i thieu". Trudng phai nay chii trUOng khdng can thiep vao nen kinh td' ma de cho "ban tay vd hinh" ciia thi trUdng dieu tiet, ke thUa tu tudng eiia Adam Smith, tiep dd la Friedrich Hayek (1899 -1992) va Milton Friedman (1912-2006).
Friedrich Hayek dupc nhan giai Nobel kinh te nam 1974 va Milton Friedman dupc nhan giai .Nobel kinh te nam 1976, hpc thuyet kinh te ciia
hai dng da trd thanh nen tang cho md hinh kinh te thj trudng tU do mdi. Hoc thuyet kinh te "Ban tay vd hlnh" dupc Adam Smith - nha kinh te hpc ngudi Scotland dUa ra b the ky XVIII. Theo Adam Smith thi "Ban tay vd hinh" cd nghTa la trong nen kinh te thj trudng, cac ea nhan tham gia ludn tim each td'i da hda Ipi nhuan cho minh. Ai cung mud'n the cho nen vd hinh chung da thiic day su phat trien va ciing cd Ipi ich cho ca cdng ddng.
He qua ciia tU tudng nay la chinh quyen nrdi qud'c gia khdng can can thiep vao ca nhan, doanh nghiep va nen kinh te cCr de tu do hoat ddng kinh doanh. Cung gid'ng A.Smith, Hayek cho rang,
"trat tu thj trudng" la trat tu sinh ra bdi sU dieu
chinh lin nhau cCia hang trieu ca the kinh te, nhufng ca the nay vd'n rat khac nhau va phan tan trong xa hdi. Bdi vay thi trUdng la khdng the can thiep dupe. Hayek ke thUa ly luan "ban tay vd hinh" cua Adam Smith, nhung dng di xa hon va triet de hOn A. Smith. Neu A. Smith cho rang trat tu tu phat ciia thj trudng dupe dieu khien bang mdt "ban tay vd hinh" de cud'i cCing dem lai cho epng ddng mpt cude sd'ng thjnh vUpng sung tiic, nen dng chap nhan mdt ngoai le: khi nao muc dich ciia ca nhan di trech ra ngoai lpi i'ch chung thi Nha nUdc can can thiep dieu tie't. Nhung Hayek thi cho rang mpi y djnh can thiep vao thj trudng, du xau hay td't, deu dem lai hau qua toi.
Ly thuyet thi trudng tu do mdi cua Hayek chii trUOng phan dd'i mpi sU can thiep cCia nha nudc ddi vdi sU van hanh tu do eiia co che thj trUdng, bdi nhiing rao can do Nha nudc dung ien ching nhung anh hudng den tU do kinh te ma cdn tiem an nhiing mdi de dpa ve chinh trj va theo dd chi mudn cd mdt Nha nUdc td'i thieu, hay ndi diing hon la Nha nUdc vdi quy md do thj trUdng djnh doat, van hanh theo yeu cau ciia thi trUdng, cac tap doan tU ban phai dupc hoan toan tU do.
Tuy nhien that bai ciia trudng phai "nha nUdc td'i thieu" se la co sd cho sU suy tdn trd lai eua trudng phai "nha nUdc manh" theo quan diem eua ly thuyet kinh te "chii nghTa tu ban cd dieu tiet"
cua John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1948). Lieu phap "ban tay nha nudc" da dupc suf dung d My va lan rdng nhanh chdng sang cac nUdc ed nen kinh te thi trudng phat trien b Chau Au va Chau A, cac gdi cufu trp va kich thfch kinh te hang tram ty ddla dupc dUa ra 6 at. Cac chuyen gia kinh te cho rang su trdi day ciia "ban tay hOfu hfnh" trong nen kinh tethj trudng giai doan nay la nhufng giai phap mang tinh cap bach dd'i phd vdi tinh trang kinh te suy thoai va la nhufng giai phap ngan han, mang tfnh tinh the. Day chae chan khdng phai la sU trd lai ciia hpc thuyet Keynes bdi khung hoang kinh te 1974 - 1975, vdi nhung can benh tram kha ciia ehij nghTa tU ban nhU lam phat g i n vdi suy thoai, cGng da lam hpc thuyet kinh te cua J.Keynes vdi sufc manh nha nude roi vao khCing hoang.
KHOA HOC
6 Thuang Mai So 31/2009
KJ^HJTE VA QUAJS LY
Cupc khOng hoang tai chinh va suy thoai kinh t^to^n cau hien nay ddi hoi phd'i hpp sCf dung ban tay nha nude va ban tay thi trUdng trong mpt md hinh Nha nude kieu mdi. Khdng phai bay gid khi khCing hoang no ra thi ngUdi ta mdi ban den dieu nay ma dieu mdi ciia cupc khCing hoang hien nay lam cho cac nha nudc budc phai xem xet lai mdi quan he giufa nha nude va thj trudng, dac biet tim ki^m vai trd, xac dinh lieu luong va cac cdng cu can thiep cQa Nha nudc vao thj trUdng cho phu hpp. Nguyen tic chung khi ket hpp ban tay quan ly ciia Nha nUde vdi cac nguyen t i c kinh te thj trudng la tranh duy y chi, cUc doan, qua nhan manh, tuyet dd'i hda vai trd chi huy tap trung mang tinh ap dat cCia Nha nUdc hoac tha ndi hoan toan, dat qua trinh phat trien cCia nen kinh te theo su dan dlt cd tinh dau co ciia cac tin hieu va SLTC manh thj trudng tu do. Ndi khac di khi "ban tay hOu hinh" ciia Nha nudc nim qua chat hoac budng qua long thi deu tiem an nguy co tao ra su ba't dn trong nen kinh te. Do vay, cd the ndi tu duy mdi ve vai trd nha nude nhlm "tim ra dupc sU can blng mdi giufa vai trd cua nha nUdc va thi trUdng"
dang dupc coi la giai phap can ban, lau dai giup cae nudc thoat khdi khiing hoang hien nay.
4. T^c dong cua khiing hoang kinh te den Viet Nam va bai hoc rut ra
He thdng tai chinh Viet Nam khdng bj thiet hai true ti§'p tu cac vu dd' vd ciia cac ngan hang tren the gidi nhung se bi nhufng anh hudng gian tie'p.
Trudc tien anh hudng den lai suat tin dung cho vay giufa cac ngan hang (Libor va Sibor, tife London Inter Bank Offer rate, Singapore Inter Bank Offer rate, thudng dUpc dung lam lai suat CO sd de cho cac xi nghiep va ngan hang Viet Nam vay), lam cho cac hdp dong vay vd'n nUde ngoai se phai cd cS'u lai va dieu chinh lai suat.
Viec mlt vd'n cCia cac ngan hang tren the gidi anh hudng tdi thi trudng dau tu do vay ngudn vd'n dau tu true tie'p (FDI) cung bj anh hudng vi FDI v^o Viet Nam phan Idn la vdn vay chCr khdng phai vd'n tu cd, nen neu cac nha dau tU khdng dan xdp dirpc khoan vay se khd giai ngan dupc.
Lupng kieu hoi cung se giam manh vi ngudn thu
nhap ciia Viet kieu va lao ddng xuat khlu bi tac dpng bdi nen kinh te nude sd tai suy thoai. Ngoai ra thj trudng chCrng khoan cung se bj anh hudng do ed kha nang nha dau tu nUde ngoai phai thu hoi vd'n va ban chilmg khoan. Viee nha dau tU nudc ngoai ban ra nhieu hon mua vao se lam giam gia chdng khoan eCia Viet Nam. Them vao dd khiing hoang d My va suy thoai toan cau dang tao nhieu ap luc cho cac nen kinh te cd md hinh tang trudng dUa vao xuat khau do tang trudng GDP ciia nhieu nUde thap ky luc, tham chi am va dU bao giao djch thuong mai toan cau giam tdi 8,2% nam 2009 do vay thj trUdng xuat khau se gap khd khan ea ve thj trudng va gia ca.
Oe Crng phd vdi khung hoang, Viet Nam can nhan rd nhung nguy co dd'i vdi nen kinh te trong giai doan khiing hoang de cd nhufng giai phap kip thdi, ddng thdi cung tha'y dupe nhufng thach thufc dd'i vdi nen kinh te trong giai doan "hau khCing hoang" de cd md hinh phat trien phu hpp. Viec phan tich nhufng van de xung quanh khung hoing kinh te My d tren cho tha'y bai hpc dng phd vdi khung hoang Idn nhlt can rut ra la can taqg cudng vai trd cua nha nude trong nen kinh t^. Tuy nhien tang cudng nhu the nao, vdi cdng cu chinh sach nao va nhlm muc tieu gi thi khdng the "nhap khlu" tu ben ngoai ma phai phu thudc vao dieu kien cu the ben trong cua nen kinh te.
Trong dai han vai trd cua Nha nudc la tao ra cac dieu kien kinh te de thj trUdng tu nhan cd the phat huy het hieu qua hoat ddng cua minh.
Vai trd dd cua Nha nUdc dac biet the hien rd ret d viec xac djnh "cac quy tac trd choi" de can thiep vao nhufng khu vUc can ed sU lUa chpn, noi the hien nhufng khuyet tat cCia thj trudng, de dam bao tinh chinh the cCia nen kinh te va de cung cap nhufng djch vu phuc Ipi. Vi du nhU b My, mdt trong nhufng nguyen nhan true tiep gay ra khung hoang dd la do Nha nudc mud'n md rpng tinh tU do cCia thi trudng nen nham lin giijfa cac viee pha bd cac "rao can" vdi viee thiet lap cae "kiem soat" can bao ve ddi vdi hai loai hoat ddng rieng biet tren thi trUdng tai chi'nh la ngan hang thuong mai (commercial banking) va cdng
KIMI TE VA qjUAN t Y
ty tai chinh (investment banking). Trong dd ngan hang thUOng mai chi hoat ddng thu nhan tien gCfi rdi cho vay, hoat ddng nay chju sU kiem soat chat che cua nha nUde (nhu FED hoac Ngan hang Nha nUdc). Hoat ddng eCia cdng ty tai chinh la nhlm thu hut vd'n tU cd, lam djch vu tao vd'n dau tU tire la phat hanh va budn ban cd phieu, gia'y np, la nhurng hoat ddng cd rui ro cao, the nhung hoat ddng nay khdng chju mdt rao can nao, kiem soat nao cua Chinh phu. Theo quan diem cua Eric Maskin, ngUdi dupc giai Nobel nam 2007, cac nha nudc can phan biet rd thj trudng nao can sU can thiep va thj trudng nao khdng can, "rat nhieu thj trudng hoat ddng hieu qua ma khdng can hoac can it sU can thiep tU ben ngoai nhUng nhufng thi trudng khac, dac biet nhufng thj trudng ed nhieu yeu td ngoai vi, sU can thiep eCia Chinh phu la can thiet". Neu khdng lam dugc dieu nay thi se cd hien tupng vUa thUa vUa thie'u vai trd cCia chinh phu trong nen kinh te.
Trong ngin han va trung han, cac giai phap kich thich kinh te cua Chinh phu can phai phu hpp vdi dac diem tinh hinh cCia nen kinh te ddng thdi nen theo phuong cham cac gdi kich eau ngoai muc tieu giai quye't suy thoai trudc mlt can hudng tdi viec dat nen mdng cho viee tang kha nang canh tranh cua nen kinh te khi khung hoang qua di.
ThQ nhat, kich cau nen hudng tdi giai quyet nhQng van de cua thj trUdng ndi dia bdi le md hinh tang trudng dua vao xuat khau eua Viet Nam lam cho san xuat trong nude phu thudc qua nhieu vao kinh te the gidi (xuat khau chiem 77% va nhap kha'u chiem 90% GDP). Trong dieu kien kinh te the gidi suy giam se lam ddng luc tang trudng giam nghTa la xuat khau giam.
Do vay kich cau can hudng tdi nang cao vai trd eua thj trudng ndi dia ca d khia canh san xuat cung nhu tieu dung: Tfn dung Uu dai nen Uu tien cho cac doanh nghiep nho va vUa, la nhufng noi tao ra nhieu cdng an viec lam nhung lai dang gap khd khan trong viec tie'p can vd'n, qua dd gdp phan phat trien nganh cdng nghiep phu trp
trong nen kinh te; Ddng thdi tang sufc mua cho nen kinh te, tao lUc day cho sCrc cau hang hda trong nUdc bang each tang cau tieu dung thdng qua tang mufc luong td'i thieu, tang chi tieu cua nhdm thu nhap thap va trung binh trong nen kinh te; Cdng vdi nhufng bien phap kiem soat thj trudng trong nude, ngan khdng cho hang gia re, chat lupng thap tran vao; Co cau lai nen kinh te theo hudng khuyen khfch dau tU vao nhufng nganh hoac doanh nghiep thay the nhap khau tren ca ba ITnh vUc san xuat, phan phd'i, tieu dung, dac biet quan tam tdi khu vuc ndng nghiep va phat trien ndng thdn bdi kinh nghiem tl/ khung hoang cho tha'y trong thdi ky toan cau hda neu thj trUdng ndi dja "bj thdn tinh", neu nen kinh te phu thudc qua nhieu vao ben ngoai thi rat dd bj tdn thUOng. Cho nen eO cau lai nen kinh te khdng chi de Crng phd vdi khung hoang trudc mat ma cdn tranh dupc sU phu thudc vao bat ky mdt thj trudng ben ngoai nao trong tUOng lai.
ThQ hai, kich cau nen hudng tdi Qng ciki cho khu vLtc xuat khau. NhUng blng bien phap giam thue hoac cho vay vdi lai suat bu Id cua Nha nUdc se la ehua trung vi khu vuc xuat khau dang ddi mat vdi van de khdng ban dupe hang de thu vd'n ve tie'p tuc san xuat. Giai phap se la day manh dau ra cho khu vUc xuat kha'u blng nhCfng bien phap nhu cho vay lai suat thap de san xuat hang xuat khau, cd the chap bang hpp ddng xuat khau;
giam thue GTGT hoac thue nhap khau tren nguyen lieu dau vao; giam thue thu nhap doanh nghiep... tCrc la bang mpi phuong thCre de giam ehi . phi dau vao. 6 tam vT md thi dieu chinh ty gia theo hudng cd ldi cho xuat khau. Trong tam trung va dai han kich cau xuat khau se hudng tdi co cau lai khu vUc xua't khau nghTa la tap trung hd trp cho nganh xuat khau sCr dung nhieu yeu td dau vao trong nudc (nguyen lieu, lao dpng), nhu vay se lam giam ty le nhap khau va tao co hpi cho phat trien nen cdng nghiep phu trp.
ThQ ba, Chinh phu can can thiep manh vao thi trudng tai chinh, dSc biet la he thong tai chinh phi ngan hang, can cd sUcan thiep thich dang, nhiJfng quy dinh ngat ngheo cho ITnh vuc nay nhlm ngan
KHOA HOC
8 Thuang Mai'
c y
So 31/2009
KIISH Tfe' v A Qijckx LY
can su sang tao qua mUe cua cac tap doan tai chinh, tranh rCii ro cho ca he thd'ng. Oac biet can quan ly chat che thj trudng vang, ngoai te, thi trudng bat ddng san va thi trudng tai chinh la nhufng thi trudng mang tfnh "ao" cao.
ThQ tu, Chinh phu can kiem soat chat che cac nhom Igi ich, cac quan he lien nganh, cac igi ich ngSn han, trung han, dai han, giQa cac nhom Igi ich cua cac nganh kinh doanh. Bdi vi kinh nghiem tU khung hoang kinh te My cho tha'y khi nen kinh te bj d i n dat bdi loi i'ch eua cac tap doan tai chi'nh, khi ddng eo va muc tieu tang trudng phuc vu cho nhdm Ipi i'ch nay se dan tdi su dd vd, mat can dd'i trong tuong lai. Tuy nhien ndi nhu vay khdng cd nghTa "ban tay" cua Chinh phu se thay the "ban tay" thj trudng ma Chinh phu can tao ra san chdi binh d i n g de mpi ca nhan va nhdm ldi i'ch "muu cau" ldi i'ch rieng cCia minh trong mdt khdng gian t u do canh tranh, ddng thdi Chfnh phu cung tao ra nhufng luat le, quy djnh de dieu chinh hanh vi cua cae nhdm Ipi i'ch hudng tdi muc tieu eua toan xa hdi.
ThQ ndm, trong trudc mSt va ngSn han Chinh phu can tctng cudng cong tac thanh tra, kiem tra, giam sat ddi vdi he thong kinh te, dac biet ddi vai cac gdi kich thich kinh te dang then khai. Phai dam bao mpi eCru trp cua Chi'nh phu den dung muc tieu, dd'i tupng, muc dfch va phat huy hieu qua. Vf du nhu gdi ki'ch cau de ho trp 4 % lai suat vd'n vay cua Chfnh phu can phai dupc giam sat de den dung dd'i tupng dd la cae doanh nghiep, dung muc tieu la dua vao hoat ddng san xuat kinh doanh chCf khdng phai cho vay de dao np, cho vay de "ludt sdng" chung khoan.
ThQ sau, Chinh phu cung khong nen sao nhang cac can thiep vao ndn kinh te nhu tSng cudng dau tu vao ca sa ha tang, dau tu vao giao due, y te. Dau \U vao nhung ITnh vuc nay se tao them viee lam, gia tang san lupng thdng qua sd nhan tieu dung, giai quyet van de an sinh xa hpi, giam thie'u mat cdng bang xa hdi bdi vi do tfnh khdng loai trUcua hang hda cdng, mpi ngudi deu cd the tieu dung vi the se nang cao phuc Ipi xa hdi, dac biet cho ngUdi n g h e o , *
Tai lieu tham khao:
1. Cae Mae va Ang ghen: Toan tap, NXB Chi'nh trj qud'c gia Suthat, H.I994, t25, tr 674
2. Cac Mac va Ang ghen: Toan tap, NXB Chi'nh trj qud'c gia Suthat, H.1994, t25, tr 44
3. Ton that ciia mpt sd ngan hang d My, Chau Au sau khung hoang thi trudng cho vay dudi chuan va nhiing canh bao, http://www.sbv.gov.vn/nghiencuutraodoi.html
4. Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, Understanding Subprime Mortgage Crisis, http://w/ww.google.com
5. The US Credit Union National Association, The US Mortgage Crisis, http://w^ww.cuna,Qrg
6. Amartya Sen: Chu nghia tuban vugt xa han cuoc khCtng hoang. The New York Review of Books, Volume 56, Sd 5.
7. TU ly thuyet trd chdi den giai quye't khung hoang ciia 7 nha kinh te doat giai Nobel http://www.tiasang.com.vn/
8. Khung hoang tai chinh 2008 dudi gdc nhin George Soros, http://www,tuanvietnam.net
9. Gilles Dostaler, Chu nghTa tu do cua Hayek, NXB Tri thCrc
10. Cac trang web: h t t p : / / w w w , t h e s a i g o n - times,vn/
http://www.tapchicongsan.org.vn/
http://vneconomy.vn/
http://vietnamnet,vn/
Summary
The worid economic crisis stems from the US financial crisis in late 2007, then spreads all over the worid. According to economists, this is not a merely financial crisis but an overall one in all fields of finance, production, trade and service; it is considered the most severe crisis in the last 80 years. The article covers the crisis development, analyzes direct and external causes, from which finds out the internal reasons for the crisis so as to draw useful lessons for Vietnam.