u THI TRUdNG CHITNG KHOAN THE Gldl
T H I TRUCING C H I A N G K H O A N T H E GIO^I T H A N G 8 / 2 0 0 9 :
TIEP TUC BUT PHA D I L I N THEO KY VONG PHUC HOI
KINH TE
HOANG HA
1
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hiing sd lieu kinh te lac quan lien tuc dude phat di khap eae chau luc, tii chau Au qua chau A tdi chau My bao hieu kinh the the gidi da ngiing suy giam va cugc suy thoai kinh te tdi te n h a t tii thap nien 1930 ed the da qua.Cho du chua rd la kinh te the gidi cd phuc hdi theo hinh chii V, chii U hay chii W, nhumg gidi d i u t u dudng nhu da bdt e ngai khi trd lai dau t u chiing khoan, tao luc day mdi de thi trudng chiing khoan (TTCK) viing bude di len.
Tudn thir nhdt tir ngdy 3 den ngdy 7/8: Chi sd DJ trd Iqi muc cao nhdt tir ddu thdng 11 nam ngodi
Chiing khoan chau A da tiing bude nhich tdi miic cao n h a t trong vdng 11 thang qua vao phien 3/8, khi cd nhiing dau hieu ve sii tang td'e ciia kinh te Trung Qude va My eung vdi ldi n h u a n lac quan ciia cae ngan h a n g hang dau khu vuc.
Chi sd MSCI ciia chau A - Thai Binh Duong (trii N h a t Ban) tang 0,8%, cham mu:c cao n h a t ke tui d i u t h a n g 9/2008 va
Cudi thang 8, TTCK My da tang khoang 50% so vai muc thdp hdi thang 3.
Anh ST
t a n g tdi 47% trong n a m nay, VUdt xa miic t a n g 17% ciia chi so' MSCI chuan cua chiing khoan toan cau va 1 1 % ciia chi so MSCI N h a t Ban, khi eac n h a dau t u dat cugc vao su t a n g trudng ciia cac thi trudng mod ndi, n h a t la chau A. Chi so' KOSPI ciia H a n Qudc t a n g 0,49%, khi gidi dau t u nude ngoai (DTNN) lien tuc m u a vao voi 14 phien lien tiep. N h u n g chi hai phien sau do, cac chi sd ehuing khoan chii chdt ciia cac TTCK chau luc da de m a t diem m a n h do gidi d i u t u t a m ngiing mua vao de ddi theo cac bao eao Igi n h u a n mdi eiia doanh nghiep.
Ket thuc phien 5/8, chi so Nikkei 225 tai Tokyo giam tdi 122,48 diem xudng 10.252,53 diem, sau khi H a n g san xuat d td Toyota Motor Corp. thdng bao t h u a Id quy thii ba lien tiep. Tai Seoul, su lo au ngay cang t a n g trong gidi DTNN trudc khi My cdng bd bao eao viec lam da khien chi sd KOSPI giam 6,9
diem xudng 1.559,47 diem. Con d Hong Kong, chi sd Hang Seng giam m a n h n h a t chau A vdi 301,66 diem, cdn 20.494,77 diem. Tai P h d Wall, D J de mat 39,22 diem cdn 9.280,97 diem.
Viec giam diem ciia thi trudng Idn n h a t t h e gidi nay da khien ed phieu tai chau Au ciing mat diem theo, trong dd, chi so' FTSE 100 tai London va CAC 40 tai P a r i s deu giam hon 0,5%.
T r o n g k h i dd, ty le that nghiep d My da b a t ngd giam trong t h a n g 7 va la l l n giam dau tien trong 15 t h a n g qua, da giiip cae chi so chiing k h o a n chu chdt d Phd Wall t a n g diem hon 1%.
Nhd ghi duge 114 diem ma DJ da giii dugc da t a n g diem sudt 4 t u a n lien tuc va hien dang d miic eao n h a t t i n h tii dau thang 11 n a m ngoai la 9.370,07 diem.Vdi sd diem ghi dugc k h a nhieu trong t u a n , chi sd S&P 500 da t a n g 14,9% chi trong vdng 4 t u a n va t a n g tdi 49,4%. Nhung dii sao mgt so n h a p h a n tich cho
till] Chirng khoin Viet Nam So 9 - Thing 9 Nam 2009
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THI TRUdNG CHUTNG KHOAN THE Gldl la
r i n g miic t a n g do den qua nhanh va dat dau hdi r i n g lieu su phuc hdi kinh te cd theo kip nhiing ky vgng ciia gidi dau t u hay khdng.
Tudn t h u h a i tir 1 0 d e n 1 4 / 8 : TTCK di len tir cdc muc d d y
Sang dau t u i n nay, TTCK chau A da bat nhip vdi da t h a n g hoa ciia Phd Wall cudi t u a n trudc va gidi dau t u tim thay nhieu ly do de dd tien trd lai vao chiing khoan. Thi trudng Tokyo va Hong Kong dan dau su .didi sac eiia TTCK khu vue vdi chi sd Nikkei 225 ghi duge 112,17 diem len 10.524,26 diem, t a n g 50% so vdi mite day hdi thang 3 \ a chi sd Hang Seng tang 476,73 diem len 20.852,10 diem. N h u n g rdi, TTCK toan cau da di xudng trong hai phien 11 va 12/8 khi gidi d i u t u chiing khoan chd dgi quyet djnh mdi n h a t ciia Cue Du trii Lien bang My (FED) ve chinh sach tien te ciing n h u nhiing nhan dinh ve trien vgng phuc hdi kinh te tit cugc suy thoai sau hien nay.
Tai phien 11/8, tren TTCK My cac chi sd chiing khoan ddng loat mat diem. D J giam 1,03%
xudng 9.241,45 diem. Trong khi do, chi so'Nasdaq sut 1,13% cdn 1.969,73 diem, cdn chi sd S&P 500 de mat 1,27% xudng ddng ciia a mitc 994,35 diem. Cac chi so' ehiing khoan Idn t r e n thi trudng da tang g i n 15% trong 4 tuan qua, day DJ len miic cao nhat ke tii d i u t h a n g 11/2008.
Tdi ngay 12/8 tai chau A, h a u het cac TTCK deu mat da theo Phd Wall. Chi sd MSCI ciia khu vuc chau A (trii N h a t Ban) da giam 1,1%, tiep tuc rod xa miic cao nhat trong 11 t h a n g ehinh phuc dugc hdi t u a n trudc. Chi sd SCI eua Thugng Hai da roi xudng miic t h i p n h a t trong 4
t u a n cdn 3.112,72 diem do lo ngai Chinh phii Trung Qudc cd the se siet chat boat ddng cho vay ngan hang da lam gidi dau t u day m a n h ban ra cd phieu. Da mat diem nay da gay siie ep len TTCK Hong Kong, khien chi sd Hang Seng de tugt 3,03% xudng 20.435,24 diem va rdi khdi miic eao n h a t trong 12 thang tao lap ngay dem trudc. Tai Tokyo chi so Nikkei 225 ciing xa dan miic cao n h a t trong 10 thang khi hi giam 1,42% cdn 10.435 diem.
Tai chau Au phien 13/8, cac thi trudng chui chdt deu tang diem nhd tdc do t a n g trudng kinh te Quy II day bat ngd eua Phap va Diic, ciing n h u cuia 16 nude thugc Eurozone da dua mitc suy giam chung ciia toan khdi chi la 0,1%. Cae con sd nay cho thay chau Au dang tren da thoat khdi suy thoai va dan phuc hdi trd lai. Ddng cua phien 13/8, chi sd FTSE 100 eiia London
tut Gidi ddu tu vdn h ngai xdy ra "hieu img thdng Chin"
thudng lam TTCJC mat diem. Suot 80 nam qua TTCJC chua he cd ngoai le, md dien hinh nhdt la thdng Chin nam ngodi, sU sup do cua Xehman 'Brothers vd mot loat cdc tap dodn tdi chinh ngdn hdng khdc dd khien chi so S^'P 500 sut tdi 9,2%.{
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tang 0,82% len miic cao n h a t trong 10 thang qua, trong khi CAC 40 ciia Phap dude them 0,49% va DAX eiia Due nhich them 0,95%.
Bude sang phien cudi t u I n 14/8, mau xanh van chiem um the tren cac san ehiing khoan chau A. Tang m a n h n h a t la thi trudng H a n Qudc khi chi sd' KOSPI ddng cua a miic cao n h a t ke tii ngay 31/7/2007 d miie 1.591,41 diem. Tiep den la N h a t Ban vdi chi sd Nikkei 225 t a n g 80,14 diem, len 10.597,33 diem.
Tudn thir b a tir 1 7 d e n 2 1 / 8 : Chung k h o d n chau A tuot doc t h e o Sdn Thirong Hdi
Chiing khoan chau A ddng loat dd san trong ngay 17/8, eae thj trudng Tokyo, Hong Kong va Thugng Hai dan dau su sut giam vdi chi so' Nikkei 225 giam 3,1% xudng 10.268,61 diem, chi sd H a n g Seng mat 3,6% edn 20.313,46 diem va chi s d S C I sut 5,79% xudng 2.870,63 diem.
Sau khi t a n g gia tdi g i n 80%
ke tii cudi nam ngoai, hai t u a n nay cd phieu Trung Qude lai mat gia dot nggt. Rieng ngay 17/8, chi sd SCI da de m a t 5,79%.
Bien cd ay xay r a khi ed nhieu tin tiic ve trien vgng phuc hdi kinh te Trung Qudc vdi da t a n g trudng len tdi 9%, vUdt muc tieu 8% ma Chinh phu dat ra. Vi vay, nhieu ngudi lien tudng den hien tugng "bong bdng" dau cd cd the bao hieu nhieu bien ddng tai bai sau nay.
Sang ngay 18/8, eac s a n chiing khoan My va chau Au da ddi m a u nhd thi trudng p h a n khich t r u d c cac bao cao ldi n h u a n lac quan. TTCK My soi ddng hgn da giup DJ ghi dugc 82,60 diem, keo theo Nasdaq tang 25,08 diem va S&P 500 ghi them 9,94 diem. Tai London, chi
So 9 - Thing 9 Nam 2009 Chung khoin Viet Nam ^ Q
u THI TRUdNG CHUTNG KHOAN THE Gldl
sd FTSE 100 da t a n g 0,88% len 4.685,78 diem; edn tai Paris chi sd CAC 40 Cling tang 0,91% len 3.450,69 diem.
Bude sang ngay 19/8, chi so' SCI tai san Thugng Hai lai roi xudng miie thap n h a t trong 2 t h a n g cdn 2.785,58 diem do gidi dau t u t h a t vgng khi thay t h u a Id ngay cang Idn. Da t a n g gia m a n h me t r e n TTCK T r u n g Qudc nam nay da trd nen cue ky g i n ket voi t h a m vgng ciia gidi dau t u toan cau trong viec m u a them cac tai san cd do rui ro cao de t h u Igi n h u a n Idn.
Tren TTCK N h a t Ban, chi sd Nikkei 225 da ddng eua a muc thap nhat trong 3 t u a n khi giam 0,79% edn 10.204,00 diem, do chiu siic ep ciia eae boat ddng ban ra vao eudi phien, eiing vdi da sut diem tai Trung Qude.
Cung ngay, chi so Hang Seng tai Hong Kong giam 1,73% xudng 19.954,23 diem. Trong khi chi sd KOSPI ciia Han Qudc hi m a t 0,28% cdn 1.545,96 diem.
Nhung ngay sau khi ed tin Chinh phii Trung Qude thdng qua ke hoach hd trd thi trudng, vdn hi sut giam 20% ke t u khi lap miic cao ky luc eiia 14 thang hdi dau thang, chi so SCI da t a n g hon 4% vao phien 20/8.
Theo sau dd, chi so MSCI cua khu vuc chau A - Thai Binh Dudng (trii N h a t Ban) t a n g 1,4%, keo theo chi sd Nikkei 225 ghi duge 1,76%. Su len gia eiia cd phieu tai chinh sau khi cd tin tuc lac quan eua nganh ehe tao My cung su phuc hdi ciia TTCK Trung Qudc la nhiing n h a n to chii yeu giiip Phd Wall ghi diem phien thii ba lien tiep. Vdi 3 phien lien t a n g diem S&P 500 da t a n g khoang 49% so vdi miic ddng cura thap n h a t trong vdng 12 nam vao ngay 9/3/2009.
Chiing khoan My ket thiie
t u a n giao dich a miic cao n h a t trong n a m nay nhd doanh sd'ban n h a h a n g t h a n g ciia My b a t ngd t a n g va ldi binh luan lac q u a n cua Chii tich FED da lam gidi dau t u t h e m ky vgng vao trien vgng phuc hdi cuia k i n h te My ndi rieng va kinh te t h e gidi ndi chung. Chi sd S&P 500 va chi sd Nasdaq da cham miic cao n h a t trong 10 t h a n g qua la 1.026,13 diem va 2.020,90 diem. Cdn D J len miic cao n h a t trong 9 t h a n g trd lai day vdi 9.505,96 diem.
Tudn cuoi cung tir 24 den 31/8: Co phieu xudng gid nhe ve cudi thdng
Chi so' Idng tin ciia ngudi tieu diing My t a n g va tdc do giam gia n h a tai 20 t h a n h phd ciia My c h a m lai eiing vdi viec dng B e r n a n k e duge tai bd nhiem chiic Chii tich FED nhiem ky II da gdp p h a n d u a TTCK My phien 25/8 va h a u het eac TTCK chau A phien 26/8 ddng loat len diem.
D J da leo len 9.539,29 diem, keo theo Nasdaq ghi them 6,25 diem len 2.024,23 diem va S&P 500 tang 2,43 diem len 1.028,00 diem.
Theo chan Phd Wall cae san chau A phien 26/8 ciing len diem, dac biet TTCK Tokyo da tang len miic cao n h a t trong gan 11 t h a n g va TTCK Thuong Hai da lay lai da sau nhieu phien trudt dd'c. Chi sd Nikkei 225 tang 142,35 diem len 10.639,71 diem va t a n g khoang 50% ke tit t h a n g 3.
Chi mgt ngay sau khi Dang Dan chu N h a t Ban (DPJ) gianh t h i n g Igi ap dao trong cugc bau eii Ha vien ngay 31/8, chi sd Nikkei 225 da giam diem trd lai sau khi cd liic da cham ngudng 10.767 diem, ngudng cao n h a t trong mgt phien ke tii 6/10/2008.
Nhieu chuyen gia eho r i n g , tam ly eiia cae n h a d a u t u da len rat cao trudc chien t h a n g ap dao ciia D P J bdi vi t h i n g ldi dd se giiip cham diit su b a t dn t r e n chinh t r u d n g va su be t i c d Qude hdi N h a t Ban. Tuy nhien, viee ddng Yen t a n g gia n h a n h so vdi ddng USD da khien nhieu n h a dau tu lo ngai trien vgng loi n h u a n d nude ngoai cua eae doanh nghiep x u a t k h a u . Do dd, chi so Nikkei 225 ddng ciia a mitc 10.497,19 diem, giam 0,35%.
C h u n g k h o a n Thudng Hai giam 6,74% cdn 2.667,75 diem, ddng thdi t h a p dudi miic trung b i n h t r o n g 125 ngay. Tinh chung, chi so SCI da giam 21%
trong t h a n g 8 va day la thang thii hai chi so nay giam hon 20%
trong 15 n a m qua. Nhiing lo ngai ve viec eae n g a n hang se h a n che cho vay sau khi da day m a n h tin dung trong 6 thang dau n a m va s u t r a n ngap cac cd phieu mod t r e n thi trudng da khien ehiing k h o a n Trung Qudc t h u t liii.
Chiing k h o a n Phd Wall eiing t r a i qua phien eudi t h a n g dd san theo s a u da xudng gia eiia San T h u d n g H a i . Nhumg dii sao t h a n g 8 nay ciing ghi dau thang len diem thii 6 lien tiep eiia chi sd S&P 500; va t i n h tii thang 3 tdi nay, chi sd nay da t a n g dugc 50,9%. Cho den thdi diem nay, TTCK My da t a n g khoang 50%
so vdi miic t h a p hdi thang 3, n h u n g gidi d a u t u van lo ngai xay r a "hieu ling t h a n g Chin"
t h u d n g lam thi t r u d n g m a t diem t r u n g binh khoang 1%. Sudt 80 n a m qua thj t r u d n g chua he cd ngoai le, m a dien hinh n h a t la t h a n g Chin n a m ngoai, su sup dd ciia L e h m a n Brothers va mgt loat cac t a p doan tai chinh - n g a n h a n g k h a c da khien chi sd S&P 500 sut tdi 9,2%.®
Chung khoin Viet Nam So 9 - Thing 9 Nam 2009