UNG DUNG CRYSTAL BALL XAC DDUH GHE DO VAN HANH TOI UU PHAT DIEN CHO HO CHUA THAC BA, TUYB\I QUANG VA BAG THANG HO CHUA SON LA, HOA BJNH
CO TiNH DB\I YEU CAU CAP NUDC HA DU
Hoang Thanh Tung', Ha Van Khoi', Nguyen Thanh Hai'
Tom tat: Van hdnh tdi uu ho chira da muc tieu vd hi thdng ho chua Id mpt chd de dirge nhieu nhd nghien ciru trong vd ngodi nudc quan tdm trong nhieu ndm gdn day nhdm dem lgi nhirng hi4u qud kinh te - xa hpi cao nhdt cho cong tdc van hdnh ho chira. Bai bdo ndy trinh bdy kel qud nghien cuu iing dung phdn mem Crystal Ball xdc djnh che dp van hdnh tdi icuphdt dien cho ho chira Thdc Bd, Tuyen Quang vd bgc thang ho chua San La, Hoa Binh co tinh den yeu cdu cdp mcdc hg du. Crystal Ball Id phdn mem toi iru vd phdn tich riii ro rdt mgnh trong kinh le vd lan ddu lien dugc nhom tdc gid dp dung thdnh cong cho van hdnh cdc hd chica noi tren. Kel qud dgi dugc Id ticang doi tot so v&i cdc mo hinh toi uu sir dung hi?n nay vi mo hinh ndy cho phep phdn tich dp tin cdy vd dua ra che dp van hdnh toi uu v&i cdc mux: ddm bdo khdc nhau nhdm ho tra ra quyet dinh van hdnh ho chira.
Tir khoa: Hda Binh, Son La, Thdc Bd, Tuyen Quang, Crystal Ball 1. MO BAU
Trong quy hoach va quan ly tai nguyen nudc viec van banh cac ho chira nuac pbuc vu cho cac muc dich khac nhau ddng mot vai tro het sire quan trpng.
Hau het cac ho chiia dupc xay dung phyc vu cho da myc tieu, trong do hau bet cac muc tieu co mau thudn v6i nhau ve cac yeu cau khai thac sii dung ho chiia. Mpt so mau thuan trong viec van banh ho chiia cd the ke den bao gom: i) mau thuan trong vi?c sii dyng dung tich ho chiia kbi ho chira co dung tich ban che lai phai thoa man nhieu muc tieu nhu phat di$n va chong lu; ii) mau thuan giua cac muc tieu cap nudc khi che dp van hanh cap nudc cho cac muc lieu khac nhau (cap nudc cho nong nghidp thi theo thdi vu, tinh hinh mua ndng, nhung cho phat dien lai dya tren nhu cau thay ddi theo ngay, tuan, hay miia);
va iii) mau thuan trong ciing mpt muc tieu khi nhu cdu nudc va lugng nudc d6n khong phai liic nao cung thoa man theo thdi gian, doi hoi vi?c tifit ki?m nudc kbi van hanh cac ho chira.
Doi vdi h? thong ho chira, viec van hanh cung can phai can nhac va xem xet mpt each hgp ly tren ca sd can ddi lugng nudc hi?n cd trong cac bo. Ro rang, khong co mpt hp diing nudc nao l^i tuang Ibich hoan toan vdi hp khac. Quy trinh van hanh ho can phai hudng dan cho ngudi dieu banh giai quyet cdc mau thudn do. Vi$c tim ra giai phap "thoa hi?p"
giOa cac myc tieu la mpt yeu td quan trpng trong vi?c nang cao hi?u qua cua h? thdng ho chiia nudc.
' Khoa Thuy vdn vd Tdi Nguyen nudc, Dgi HQC Thuy lgi
Day Cling chinh la chu de dugc nhieu nha nghien ciiu trong va ngoai nudc quan tam trong nhieu nam qua nham dem lai hi?u qua kinh te xa hpi cao nhat.
Luu vuc song Hong la liru vuc sdng Idn thii hai cua Vi?t Nam va la luu vuc song co cac cong trinh thuy Igi va phdng chong lu lut hoan cbinb nhat nudc ta vdi cac ho chiia Idn da di vao vgn hanh nhu Scm La, Hoa Binh, Thac Ba va Tuyen Quang, h? thong de dieu, cac cong yinh phan lu, cham lu va cac he thong tudi tieu Idn. Theo Quyet djnh So: I554/QD- TTg cua Thil tudng Chinh phu phe duy?t Quy hoach thuy Igi vung ddng bdng sdng Hdng giai dogn 2012 - 2020 va dinh hudng din nam 2050 trong dilu kien bien doi khf hau, nudc bien dang tbi viec "Duy Iri hgp ly dong chdy ki$t Id vdn de mang linh chien luge doi vai on dinh vd phdt trien kinh ti xa hpi viing dong bdng song Hong". Muc tieu trudc mat den nam 2020 la phai van hanh hgp ly h? tbdng bo chira Idn tren thugng nguon song Hong (San La, Hoa Binh, Thac Ba, Tuyen Quang) kit bgp ky trieu cudng dieu tiet cap nudc trong miia ki?t, phyc vu san xuat vy Dong Xuan, dac bi?t cho giai do^in lir 10/1 den 28/2 hang nam,
D8 gdp phan dat dugc cac myc tieu de ra nhu tren tbi vi?c nghien ciru v|in hanh h? thong hd chira tren song'Hong co mpt y nghTa quan trpng va nghien ciiu nay thir ngbi?m ap dyng phan mem Crystal Ball xay dyng che dp v^n hanh tdi uu cac ho chira Tuyen Quang, Thac Bd, va b^c thang hd chiia Son La, Hoa Binh phat di?n cd xet den nbu cau nudc d h^ du.
KHOA HOC K9 THUAT THUY iq\ VA MOI ItaiijHQ • sd 42 (9/2013)
2. PHirONGPHAPNGHlfeNCCtJ
V ^ hanh hd chua (VHHC) la mpt trong nhung van de dugc quan tam nhieu nhdt trong ljch sii hang tram nam ciia cdng tac quy ho^ch quan ly h? thong nguon nudc. Nghien cuu v^n hdnh quan ly h? thdng ho chiia ludn phat trien theo thdi gian tir cac nghien ciiu dan gian tdi cac nghien ciiu gan day ve phuang phap van hanh toi uu h? thong hd chiia phyc vy da muc tieu. Tren the gidi da cd rat nhiSu nghien ciiu ap dyng cac thu§l toan dieu khiln khac nhau vao giai quyet bai toan van hanh hd chiia da muc tieu va he thong lien ho chiia. Cac phuang phap nay da dugc John W. Labadie [1], Trudng Dai hpc Bang Colorado tong k6t bao gdm: i) Nhom cdc phuang phdp toi uu ngdu nhiin dn (Implicit Stochastic Optimization) nhu: cac mo hinh quy hoach tuySn tinh (Linear Programming Models), cac mo hinh toi uu ddng chay mang (Network Flow Optimization Models), cac mo binh quy hoach phi tuyen
(Nonlinear Programming Models), cac mo hinh quy hoach dgng rdi r?c (Discrete Dynamic Programming Model), cac mo hinh quy hoach dpng lien tuc (Diffirential Dynamic Programming Models), cac ly thuyet dieu khien toi uu rdi rac theo thdi gian (Discrete Time Optimal Control Theory); ii) Nhom cdc phuang phdp ngdu nhiin hi^n (Explicit Stochastic Optimization) nhu: cac mo hinh quy hoach tuyen tinh ngau nhien (Stochastic Linear Programming Models), cac mo hinh quy hoach dpng ngau nhien (Stochastic Dynamic Programming Models), cac mo hinh dieu khien toi uu ngau nhien (Stochastic Optimal Control Models) va iii) Nhdm lich hgp du bdo de van hdnh ho chua theo th&i gian thuc. M^c dii da dat dugc nhiing tien bo vupt bac trong nghien ciiu van hanh ho da muc tieu va he thdng ho chira, nhung cho den nay khdng co mpt ldi giai chung cbo mpi h? thdng ma tiiy dac thii ciia timg he thong ma c6 cac ldi giai phii hgp.
Nhap so lieu
Xay dyng rao hinh ddng chiy ngau nhien 6cn hb tir s6 li^u ljch sir
(m6 hinh Monte Carlo")
Xay dyng mo hinh mo ph6ng vfin h^nh ho chiia trong cdc bang tinh
lien ket trong Excel
Xay dung mo hinh toi ini trong Crystal Ball (mo dun Opquest)
Mo hinh mo phong - toi iru van hanh ho chira
Toi uu h6a san lui?ng di?n trung binh nSm
T6i uu hoa san lirgng di?n trung binh nSm co xet den
c^p nu6c ha du
Phan tich dp tin cay trong phdt di?n va cap nuoc / dy bdo san lirgng di?n
©e xuat bieu do dieu phoi toi iru
Hinh 1 So do Hip cgn nghien cini
Trong nghien ciru niy, nhdm tac gia lya chpn chay den ho ngau nhien theo mo phong Monte phuang phap ket bgp giifa cac mo hinh mo phong va Carlo, mo hinh mo phong h? thong ho chira, va mo mo binh to! uu bao gom: md hinb md phdng ddng hinh toi uu de xac djnh cha dp v^n hanh loi uu phat
KHOA HQC Kf THUAT THUY LQl VA Mfll TRlrfmC - S6 42 (9/2013)
di?n cac hd chira Tuyen Quang, Thac Ba va bac thang ho cbiia Son La, Hoa Bmh co xet den nhu cau cap nudc h? du phyc vy san xukt vy Dong Xuan, dac biet cbo giai doan tir 10/1 din 28/2 hang nam. Phan m6m Crystal Ball da dugc su dung de xay dung md hinh ket ndi nay nhu minh hpa torn tat trong Sa dd tiep can nghien cuu (Hinh 1).
Crystal Ball la phan mem toi uu va phan tich nii ro dugc sir dyng nhieu trong phan tich kinh te do ORACLE - Cong ty hang dau the gidi ve phan mem CO sd dir li?u phat tri^n [2]. Phan mem co giao dien ngudi diing than thien, co modun tfch hgp trong bang tinh Excel. Thong qua siic manh toi uu va mo phong.
Crystal Ball da trd thanh cong cy hi?u qua trong tay ciia nhiing nguai ra quyet djnh. Phan mem Crystal Ball CO the dap irng dugc nhiing yeu cau cua bai toan toi uu trong van hanh ho chiia nhu: i) Cbo phep tao chuoi ddng chay ngau nhien tu nhien den ho theo mo phong Monte Carlo; ii) Cho phep xay dung mo binb mo phong h6 chiia mpi each linh boat trong cac bang tinb, rat de dang thay doi vdi cac dieu kien thuc te; iii) Bdng 1: Minh hga phdn bo dong chdy ngdu nhien
Cho phep long ghep cac thuylt todn toi uu (thupc nhom cac phuong phip ngiu nhien hi?n neu tr8n) vao cac bang tinh six dyng Modun toi uu Opquest. Cac ket qua dat dugc hi mo hinh ket hgp md phong va t6i uu VHHC Iai tiep tuc dugc phan tich dp tm c§y de xac dinb ch8 dp vgn hanh tdi uu iing vdi cac muc dam bao khac nhau giup ho trg ra quyet dmh.
3. KET QUA VA THAO LU^N
3.1. Xdy dung mo hinh mo phong dong chay ngdu nhien din cdc hd chita Tuyen Quang, Thdc Bd vd bgc ihang hS chira San la, Hoa Binh (mo phdng Monte Carlo)
Nhom nghien ciiu da sir dyng md pbong Monte Carlo xay dung mo hinh mo phdng dong chay trung binh 10 ngay nglu nhien den cac hd cbiia tren dya tren chudi s6 lieu tbyc do tir nam 1956 den 2009.
Ket qua minh hpa trong Bang 1 dudi day cho thay phan bo dong chay den hd San La thudng la phan bo cyc tri "Maximum Extreme" trong cac thang miia lu va phan bd chuin "normal" hoac "log normal" cbo cac thing con lai.
din ho Scm La iheo mo phong Monler Carlo Th6i gian
Phan bo
Thoi gian Phan bo
Thoi qian PhSn b6
Th6i qian PhSn b6
Thtt qian PhSn b6
10T6 Gamma Location Scale Shape
202,25 474,34 2,78
3on
Loqnormai Location Mean Std. Dev,
547.81 4164,49 1380,02
20T9 Gamma Location Scale Shape
419,12 317,3 6,31
T i l Loqnormai Location Mean Std, Dev,
242.52 1098 23 407.15 10T2-20T2-30T2 Maximum Extreme Likeliest Scale
370.04 75.91
20T6 Gamma Location Scale Shape
64.33 398.63 5.18 10T8 Beta Minimum Maximum Alpha Beta
824 63 9083.61 3.14 4.26 30T9 Beta Minimum Maximum Alpha Beta
878.49 4574.03 1.93 4.25 T12 Loqnomial Location Mean Std. Dev.
•144.49 678.83 191.08 10T3-20T3-30T3
Gamma Location Scale Shape
186.09 47.64 3.42
30T6 Loqnorrhal Location Mean Std. Dev.
•685.65 2653 84 1008.22 20T8 Maximum Extreme Likeliest Scale
3476.02 1377.01
10T10 Loqnonral Location Mean Std. Dev.
600.96 1837.17 616 41
10T7 Loqnormai Location Mean Std. Dev.
-1079.19 3430.45 1219.34 30T8 Logistic Mean Scale
3583.85 746.8
20T10 Loqnormai Location Mean Std. Dev.
688.24 1767.15 750.33
2on
Loqnormai Location Mean Sld.Dev
•2083.67 3840.05 1389.78 10T9 Gamma Location Scale Shape
188.04 428.28 6.4
30T10 Loqnormai Location Mean Sld.Dev
447.98 1512.7 565.13
10T1 Gamma Location Scale Shape
124.91 38.58 9.62 T4 Loqnomial Location Mean Std. Dev.
104.18 392.66 129.68
20T1 Gamma Location Scale Shape
124.91 38.58 9.62 T5 Gamma Location Scale Shape
173.75 197.33 288
30T1 Gamma Location Scale Shape
124.91 38.58 9.62
KHOA HOC Kf THOAT THOY Hn VA MOl TRlrtNG • S6 42 (9/2013)
3.2. Xay dwng mo hinh mo phdng van hdnb ho ho chiia pbat di?n cd tinh d6n nhu cau dimg nudc ha du chira Tuyen Quang, Thdc Bd vd bgc thang ho chira dugc thiet lap dudi dang cac bang tinh cd lien ket vdi Sent La - Hoa Binh nhau trong Excel nhu minh hpa trong hinh 2 dirdi day
Mo hinh md pbong van banh ho chiia va bac thang cho bac thang hd chiia Son La va Hoa Binh:
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i V Hinh 2: Minh hga mo hinh van hdnh bdc thang ho chua phdt dien cd xel den nhu cdu sir dung nuac hg du
dugc ihiet lap du&i dang cdc bdng linh co lien kel v&i nhau trong Excel Mo hinh nay dugc thiet lap gom 5 bang tinh co
lien ket vai nhau:
-"Bdng Q din ho" dugc sii dgng de xay dung phan b6 dong chay den cho tirng buac thai gian chay mo hinh (10 ngay), bang nay dugc lien ket vai
"Bang cb^y mo phong" de cap phat chuoi dong chay den ho trong timg giai dogn mQt each ngau nhien theo mo phong Monte Carlo.
-"Bdng Quan h? hd" bao g6in cac quan he Z-W- F va Q-Z ha luu sau khi dugc ngi suy vai buac thay d6i Z khoang 10cm dugc lien ket vai "Bang chay mo phong" de mo hinh tir dgng tra ngugc/xuoi cac gia trj tr^ng thai ho chiia.
- "Bdng mo phdng" dugc thiet l^p nbu mgt bang tinh dieu tiet h6. Vdi b^c thang ho chira "Bang mo ph6ng" bao g6m 2 bang tinh di6u tiet: mgt bang cho ho Hoa Binh va mgt bang cho ho San La. Hai bang tinb toan dieu tiet nay co lien quan d^n nhau: Qxa tir ho San La cpng vol Qkhu giira se la Qvao cua ho H6a Binh, myc nuac denh ciia ho Hoa Binh den ha luu ciia ho San La cung dugc xem xet trong tinh toan bang cac !$nh rang bugc.
-"Bdng kel qud" dua ra c^c ket qua tinh toan tir
mo hinh toi uu Crystal Ball
-"Bangphdn lich bdo cdo" la cac bao cao dirge trich ra khi phan tich dp tin cay, dir bao ham muc tieu kem theo eac bieu bang va ve hinh minh hpa...w.
"Bang mo phong" dugc thiet lap cho tirng ho chiia dua vao nhirng co sa cae tieu chf ve miic dam bao phat dien (quy dinh theo tieu chuan TCXDVN 285:2002), cac rang bugc ve dung tich ciia ho chiia, nha may dien, ham muc tieu ve phat di?n, rang bugc cap nu0C cho ha luu trong giai doan tir 10/1 den 28/2 hang nam (chi liel xin iham khdo TLTKso 3).
3.3. Xdy dung mo hinb toi tru trong Crystal Ball vd ket noi v&i mo hinh mo phdng
Nhom nghien ciru da sir dung modun toi uu OptQuest trong phan m^m Crystal Ball de xay di/ng mo binh toi uu sau do k6t noi voi mo hinh mo phong dong chay ngau nhien den ho va mo hinh mo phong h6 chiia phat di?n va cSp nuac da xay dyng a cac buac truac de hinh thanh mo hinh v^n hanh toi uu ho chira Thac Ba, Tuyen Quang va bac thang ho chiia San La - Hoa Binb.
a. Ket not v&i cdc biin ngdu nhiin irong mo hinh
KHOA HQC K? THUAT THUY LQl VA MCI TRlrtWC - S6 42 {9/2013)
mo phong:
De ket noi vai ngau nbien d6n bo, nglu nhien va dua tim dugc cho tung bay amyc 3.1.
b. Xdc dinh cdc Cic bien quyet hinh van hanh b6
mo binh mo phong dong chay can tien hanh dinh nghia cac bien vao cac ham phan bo xac suit da giai dogn trong nam nhu da trinh biin quyit dinh
djnh (biln dieu khiSn) trong mo chira pbat dien co tinb den cap
nuac hg du chinh la Iuu lugng qua tudc bin cua tumg buac thai gian. LSn lupt dua vao pham vi bien doi (can tren va can duai) cua bien quyet djnh (minh hga hinh 3). Thong thucmg su dyng bieu do dieu phoi hien tai ciia ho de xac dinh va dua vao mo hinh n h ^ tiet ki^m thai gian chgy mo binh. Khi tinh den nhu cau cap nu6c ha du tbi can dua vao c^c rang bupc cap nuac cho khoang thai gian cap nuac khan truong tir 10 thang 1 den 28 thang 2 hang nam.
MBMI
q
Hinh 3: Minh hoa hdng xdc dinh bien quyel dinh, bien du bdo trong Modun Opquest c. Xdc dinh cdc biin dg bdo vd cdc ihdng so chgy
mo phong
Bien dir bao hay ham muc tieu trong van hanh ho chiia va bac thang bo chira phat dien co xet den cap nuac cho ha du chinh la cue dai boa tong san lugng
dien binb quan nam cua cac ho. Cac thong so chgy mo phong dugc thiet lap nhu sau: mo phong 1000 lan, phucmg phap tao chuoi dong chay ngau nhien den ho la Monte Carlo vai dp dai chuoi tuang umg 500 nam so lieu
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Hinh 4 • Minh hga bang xdc dmh bdng Ihong so chgy mo phong toi ini trong Modun Opquest 3.4. Xdc dinh che dp van hdnh toi iru phdi di^n
cdc ho Tuyen Quang, Thdc Bd vd bgc thang hd ehda San La, Hoa Binh cd xet den cap nw&c bg du trong giai dogn tir 10/1 den 28/2 hdng nam
Vai mo hinh ket hgp mo phong va toi uu van hanh ho chiia da xay dymg, nhom nghien ciiu da
tien hanh chay mo hinb de xac djnh che dp vgn hanh toi uu pbat di?n co xet den nbu cau cap nuac hg du cho cac h6 va bac thang ho chiia noi tren.
Kinh nghi?m riit ra dugc tir cac k6t qua nghien ciiu van hanh toi iru bo chira da myc tieu va h? thong ho chira 6 trong va ngoai nuac truac day cbo thay rat
KHOA HOC Kt THUAT THOY LQI VA MOI TRUfiWC - S6 42 (9/2013)
nhieu bai toan khi thiet Igp xong va di tim Iai giai Igi khong tim dugc nghidm vi c6 qua nhi6u bien quyet djnh, dai chay mo phong ciia cac biln qua 16n, cac may tinb thong thuang khong the chgy noi vi tran bg nho. Cbinb vi vay vai h§ thong h6 chira tren song H6ng, nhom nghien ciiu da ti§n banh chay mo phong t6i mi theo tiing giai dogn: i) giai dogn 1 chgy mo phong toi uu cho timg ho chiia dgc Igp phat dien de tim dai giai han cac bien quyit djnh theo cac miic dam bao khac nhau; ii) giai dogn 2 chay mo phong toi uu cho tirng b6 chira dgc lap phat di?n c6 xet tai cip nuac hg du trong giai dogn tir 10/1 den 28/2 hang nam. Trong giai doan nay tien hanh khoa dan dan cac biln quyit dinh cho hiu hit cac thang miia lu dl tiln hanh tim va ban chi dan dan khoang gidi ban cua bien quyit djnh trong cac thang con lai, dac bi?t trong giai doan can cip nude hg du; iii) giai dogn cu6i ciing, tiln hanh kit noi h? thong bac thang ho chiia va ham mue tieu luc nay la tong san lugng dien binb quan nam cua cdc bo nghien ciiu, cac bien quyet dinh chinb la luu Iugng xa qua tuoc bin trong tirng budc thai gian (10 ngay) trong nam cua cac ho chiia, nhung khoang bien doi ciia cac bien nay da dugc thu h^p tir cac giai dogn trudc. Bang each tien hanh nay, bai toan da tim dugc nghi?m.
StaUdngdUnTBnta
Ho chua Thdc Bd
SAn hJ^ng dWn TB nam
Ho chua Tuyen Quang
Bdc ihang ho chira San La, Hoa Binh Hinh 5. Bieu do mo td tong sdn lugng dien ndm ciia ho Thdc Bd, Tuyen Quang vd bgc thang ho chira Scm La, Hoa Binh v&i muc ddm bdo khdc nhau khi phdn tich dp tin cdy trong Ciystal Ball
Che dg van hanh toi uu phat di?n iing vdi cac mirc dam bao khac nhau cac ho chira Tuyen Quang, Thac Ba va bac thang h6 chiia San La, Hoa Binh co xet den cap nudc d ha luu dugc minh hga tom tit trong cac hinh 5, 6.
Vdi chi do van hanh de xuit cho 4 ho (Bang 2), nhdm tac gia da thir nghidm danh gia ket qua vgn hanh cho cac nam 2009, 2010, 2011 cho thiy vdi tong mirc xa cua ca 4 ho la 2300 m3/s (bgc thang Son La, Hoa Binh: 2.000 m3/s, Tuyen quang: 200 m3/s, va Thac Ba: 100 m3/s) trong giai doan tir 10/1 den 28/2 da dap iing dugc nhu cau nudc cho ha du, tong san lugng di?n trung binh nhieu nam cua bgc thang hd chiia San La, Hoa Binh dat mirc 18.547 (lO^kWh) (Idn ban tong san lugng dien tinh toan thiet ke ciia EVN, san lugng dien eiia rieng ho Hoa Binh deu Idn ban san lugng dien san xuat cua cac nam ndi tren), san iugng di?n trung binh nam ciia hd Tuyen Quang la 1.297,7(10^kWh) Idn han san lugng di?n san xuat trong cae nam noi tren, san iugng di?n san xuat ciia ho Thac Ba la 330.3 (lO'kWh) Idn Hon san lugng dien thyc te san xuat cao nhat trong 30 nam khai thac (300 IO\Wh). Qua phan tich dp tin cay nhu minh hpa trong hinh 3, ta cd the thay la vdi 1000 lan mo phdng thi co khoang 7% ddi vdi hd Scm La va khoang 1% ddi vdi ho Hda Binh bj rai vao tinh trang thieu nudc, san lugng di?n bj giam neu cap dii nudc cho hg du trong giai doan tir 10/1 den 28/2 vdi mirc 2.000 m3/s. Vdi mo hinh van hanh kit hgp md phdng va toi uu da thiet lap, ngudi ra quyet djnh cd the lya chgn cac mirc dam bao khac nhau de quyet djnh che dp vgn hanh. Cac gidi hgn dua ra trong Bang 2 chi la gidi hgn tren va dudi ctia quy trinh vgn hanh, con tiiy thugc vao dg tin cay dugc
KHOA HOC Kt T H U A T THUY LQI VA M O I TRUOWC • S6 42 (9/2013)
phan tich tir md hinh ma ngudi ra quyet dinb se lira tbi dir bao dugc san lugng di?n tuong ling nhu mOt chgn dk ra cac quyet dinh phii bgp ddng tbdi cung cd vai minb hga trong hinh 6.
Ehwng v» tr"* " f « « « * • " « « • " « •'*'» l"** •**' "•""
•^ / ^-^ •.•*•// -^Z ^ ^' - ^ / z -^
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/fi«/i 6; Quy dgo van hdnh loi uu phdl dien img v&i cdc mice ddm bdo khdc nhau vi sdn lugng di?n cua cdc ho Tuyen Quang, Thdc Bd vd bgc thang ho chua San La - Hoa binh co xel din cdp nu&c hg du trong
giai dogn lir 10/1 den 28/2 hdng ndm
Bdng 2: Gi&i hgn mi/c nu&c di xudl cho cdc ho Tuyin Quang, Thdc Bd, bdc ihang ho chica San La, Hoa Binh toi iru phdt dien cd xel den nhu cdu cdp nu&c hg du hdng ndm lir 10/1 den 28/2
• 6e xuit
Thdi doan 1-10/6 11-20/6 21.30/6 OMO/7 11^20/7 21^31/7 01 •I 0/8 11^20/8 21-31/8 OMO/9 11^20/9 21^30/9 OMO/10 11-20/10 21-31/10 01-30/11 01-30/12
Ho Son La GIOI tian Ir^n (m) 199.8 199.8 199.8 199.8 199.8 193.8 193.8 193.8 199.2 210 210 6
210 211.2 214.6 214.8 214.8 2144
Gicri han diroi{m) 177.2 177.9 179.8 194 199.8 193.8 193.8 193 8 194.4 199.8 200 202 6 198.2 196 8 201 200 2 198 7
HoHoaBinli Gioi tian tren
(m) 100 4
105 105 105 105 101 101 101 107.4
110 111 6 114.2
117 117 117 117 117
Gioi tian cJu6i{m) 82.4
86 90 90.6 93 6 101 101 101 106 8
109 110.6 1134 117 117 117 117 116.8
Ho Tuyen Quanq Gioi tian tren (m) 94.6 91.8 90.8 94.2 93 94 91.8 93.6 95 101.6 105.6 108 109.8 110.6 1108 110.6 109.2
Gidi tian diroi(m) 101.2 101.2 101.2 99.6 102 102 102 105 105 114 114.4 • 117.8 1182 119 119.8
119 119.2
Hd Ttiac B j Gidi han trdn (m) 50.1 51.9 53.4 53.9 54.9 55.9 55.9 55.9 55 9 56 5 57.1 56.7 57.9 57.9 57 9 57.9 56.9
Gidi han dtrdi (m) 47.6 46.5 47.7 48 7 51 51 51 52.8 53 54 5
55 55.6 55 7 55 7 55.5 551 54
KHOA HOC Iff THUiT THiiY L(n VA MOI TRlrtNC • Sfi 42 (9/2013)
Bimit Thdi doan
01-10/1 11-20/1 21^30/1 OMO/2 1V20/2 21-28/2 01-10/3 11-20/3 21-31/3 01-30/4 01-31/5
HdSonU Gidi han tren (m) 214 213.4 213 2 212 2106 209.4 208 2 207.4 205.6 199.2 199.8
Gidl han dudi(m) 196.6 195.3 195.4 193.4 192 192 187 187 187 180.8
175
Ho Hda Binh Gidl han tren
(m) 116.2
117 117 117 117 117 117 117 117 110.3
101
Gioi han dudi(m)
116 109 8 102.8 97.6 96.1 93.7 91.1 90.2 88.5 82 81.8
Ho Tuyen Quang Groihan tren(m) 108.6
107 106.2
105 103.8 102 6 101.1 98.9 96.4 95 8 99.8
GH^ihan dudi(m) 118.6 117.4 116 114.6
113 112.2 111.2 110.4 109.2 107.4 102
Ho Thac Ba Gidi han tren (m)
56.4 53.6 55.5 55 545 54 53.7 53.4 51.9 51.1 50.1
Gidi han dudi (m) 53 52.5 51.5 51 49.5 49 49.7 49.4 48 47.2 47 5
4. KET LUAN
Nghien cim da lan dau tien iing dung thanh cdng phan mem Crystal Ball - mpt phan mem chuyen dung ve toi uu va phan tich nii ro trong kinh te vao bai toan vgn banh bo da muc tieu va b? tbdng hd chira. Md hinh vgn hanh ket hgp gitra md phdng (md phdng dong chay ngau nbien den hd theo Monte Carlo, md phdng vgn hanh hd va bac thang bd cbiia) va md hinh tdi uu (toi iru phi tuyen) de ap dung eho ho Tuyen Quang, Thac Ba, va bac thang bd chira Son La, Hda Binh.
Nghien ciru da budc dau de xuat che do van hanh tdi uu phat dien cd xet den nhu cau diing nudc ha du cho cac hd chiia ndi tren. Ket qua dat dugc la tuang ddi tdt so vdi cac md hinh toi im sir dung hien nay vi mo hinh nay cho phep phan tich dp tin cay va dua ra che dg van hanh toi uu vdi cac mirc dam bao kliac nhau nham hd trg ra quyet dinh van hanh hd chira.Vdi nhimg thanh cong ban dau nay, nhdm nghien ciiu lin rang cd the md rpng sir dung phan mem nay cho cac hd va he thong ho chira khac d Viet Nam.
TAI LI?U THAM KHAO
1. John W. Labadie. Reservoir system optimization modds. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, Vol 130, March I, 2004.
2. Barbara Gentry (2008). Crystal Ball User Manual, Crystal Ball Predictor, and Crystal Ball OpiQuesl User Manual. Oracle
3. PECC1. Bdo cdo thuy vdn vd quy trinh vgn hdnh ho Son La, hd Hoa Binh, ho Tuyin Quang. va ho Thdc Bd.
Summary:
APPLICATION OF CRYSTAL BALL FOR OPTIMIZATION OF ELECTRICITY OPERATION OF THAC BA, TUYEN QUANG, AND CASCADE RESERVOIRS OF SON LA AND HOA BINH
IN CONSIDERATION OF DOWNSTREAM WATER SUPPLY
Optimum Operation of multi-purpose reservoirs and reservoir system is a concern of many reseachers in Vietnam and m the World for maximizing socio-economy effectiveness of reservoir operation. This article summaries results on application of Crystal Ball software for optimum operation of Thac Ba Reservoir.
Tuyen Quang Reservoir, and cascade reservoir of Son La and Hoa Binh. Crystal Ball is an economic optimization and risk analyst soflM'are developped by Oracle but first time used for these mentioned reservoirs and reservoir system operation. Research results show thai this software is very good if compared
•with current optimum models because ofil 's capacity in uncertanty analysis and forecasting that supports lo decision making in reservoir operation.
Key words: Crystal Ball, Hoa Binh, Son La, Thac Ba, Tuyen Quang Ngudi phdn bi?n: PGS.TS Ngo Le Long BBTnhgn bdi:
Phdn bi?n xong:
27/6/2013 4/9/2013
KHOA HOC K? THUAT THOY \SJ\ VA MOI TRlrtWG • S6 42 (9/2013)