THU'C TIEN - KINH NGHIEM
vAnh hudng cua bien doi khi hau flen nong nghiep, nuoi trdng va danh bat thuy hai san
cua cong dong ven bien
• ThS NGUYEN THj T H O Y MAI Hoc vien Bao chi va Tuyen truyin
Bien ddi kM hau da anh hudng nghiem trpng den ddi sdng kinh te - xd hpi va con ngudi cua nhieu qudc gia tren the gidi. Viet Nam Id mpt trong nhimg qudc gia chiu anh hudng nang ne nhdt tren tat ca mpi mat. Trong bai viet ndy, tac gia di sdu gidi thieu ve nhihig anh hudng eua bien ddi kM hdu ddi vdi ndng nghiep, nudi trdng va danh bat thuy hai san ciia edng ddng ven bien. Tir do, ddt ra van de ve gidi phdp de phat trien nganh nay theo hudng ben virng de giam nhe nhirng thiet hai va cd khd ndng thich ung tdt vdi bien ddi khi hdu.
1. Tinh hinh bien ddi khi hdu cua Met Nam Hien nay, thudt ngii "bien ddi kM hdu" khdng cdn xa la ddi vdi bat eu ai tren toan the gidi ciing nhu d Viet Nam. Theo IPCC (2007) va Bd Tdi nguyen Mdi ttudng (2009), Men doi kM hdu Id sy ndng ISn todn cdu vd myc nudc bien dang, nguyen nhdn chu yeu do edc loai kM nhd ldnh dupe phdt thai ttr boat ddng ciia con ngudi.
Bilu Men cua Men ddi kM hdu la nMet dp tang, thay ddi lupng mua, myc nudc bien ddng, xdm lan man vd cac hinh thai thdi tiet cue doan nhu lu lut va ban han.
Bien ddi kM hdu vd nhirng dnh hudng cua nd ddi vdi eon ngudi ngdy cang dupc gM nhdn mot each ro net tren mpi mat, dae biet ddi vdi kmh te, xd hdi vd mdi tiudng. Tdc gid Trdn Thp Dat va Vu TM Hoai Thu (2012) cho rdng: Bien ddi khi hdu cd dnh hudng Idn den suphdt tnen kinh te - xd hdi cda tdt cd cdc qudc gia vd mgi nd luc phdt trien ciia con ngudi dang cd nguy ca bi huy hogi bdi bien ddi khi hgu "'.
Viet Nam ndm ttong khu vyc nMet ddi gid mua, hdng nam phdi chiu nMlu hinh thai tiidi tiet khac ngMet vd nhiing con bao nMet ddi, ap thdp nMet ddi va bao biln. Cae Men tupng tiiien tai xdy ra quanh nam da anh hudng khdng nhd tdi Mnh te, xa hdi vd mdi
tnrong.
Theo ngMen cuu cua cdc nhd kM tupng hpc, kM hdu Viet Nam da ed nhvmg biln ddi rd ret. Cu the, tiieo nhu FAO (2011), Bp Tai nguyen va Mdi trudng (2012), Phan Van Tdn vaNgd Diic Thdnh (2013):
trong 50 ndm qua nhiet do tnmg binh ndm tdng 0.5"C tren phgm vi cd nudc, lugng mua gidm dphia Bdc vd tdng dphia Nam lanh ihd. Du bdo den cudi the kyXXl, nhiet do d Viet Nam tdng tiiAng binh 2.3 "C vd lugng mua se tdng 5% so vdi giai dogn 1890 -1999, muc nudc bien ddng trung binh todn ddi ven bien Viet Nam tir57-73cm^K
Ben canh dd, lupng phdt thdi kM nha kinh tir ede hoat ddng giao thdng, cdng nghiep, sir dung ndng lupng,... dang gdp phan ldm tdng them sy ndng len todn cdu vd nudc biln dang. LTdc tinh lupng phdt tbdi cua Viet Nam dat 120,8 trieu tdn va vdi tinh hmh phdt tiien kinh te Men nay, lupng phat tiidi nay se cdn tang manh ttx)ng thai gian tdi.
2. Tdc dgng cua bien doi khi hgu doi vdi ndng nghiep vd nuoi trdng ddnh bdt thuy sdn cgng ddng ven biin
So thdng 3-2016 Ly lu^n chfnh tri & Thuyen thong 79
THLfC TIEN - KINH NGHIEM
Theo danh gia cua nMeu nha ngMen cuu Bmgxin Yu(2010),FAO (2011),TidnE)ucVien(2011),...Viet Nam la mdt frong sd cae nudc chiu dnh hudng nang ne cua bien ddi kM hdu. Vdi ban 300 nghm km bd Men, cac vung ven bien la khu vyc cd nMeu tiem nang phat trien, nhung ciing Id khu vyc chiu nMeu anh hudng vd bien dpng tit nhung tac ddng manh nhat cua tu nMen vd hanh ddng eua con ngudi. Theo Tran Thp Dat va Vu Thi Hoai Thu (2012), ngay ca kM khdng cd sy tac dpng bdi sy Men ddi kM hdu khu vuc ndy da cMu nMlu ap lye. Han niia, day ciing la khu vyc tap trung dan cu, nen ldnh te chu yeu sir dung ngudn lyc tiuen nMen, ttong kM dd cac ngudn Iuc ndy dang bi suy thoai. Cho nen dan cu ven bien la nhdm chiu nMeu ton thuong nhdt la ddi vdi nhung nudc dang phdt ttien vdi ca sd ha tang cdn ngheo nan nhu nudc ta,
Cdng ddng ven bien Id nhiing ddi tupng ehiu dnh hudng nMeu nhat do bien ddi kM hdu khdng cM vi vi tti dia ly, ma cdn vi cdc hoat ddng kinh tl nhdm dam bdo cupc sdng qua dya vdo tMen nMen. Hoat ddng ndng ngMep va danh bat thuy san dupc coi Id mang lai ngudn thu nhap chinh cua ngudi ddn ven bien. Tuy nMen nhimg hoat dpng Mnh te nay lai chiu dnh hudng vd eung Idn ttr biln ddng eua ty nMen.
Bdi vdi linh VMC ndng nghiep:
Ndng ngMep ddng vai frd quan trpng frong sy phat trien kinh te-xa hpi dae biet ddi vdi mdt nudc ndng ngMep nhu Viet Nam. Trong ndng ngMep, san xuat Ilia gao ddng vai frd quan trong frong an ninh luong thuc, gidl quyet viec ldm cho khu vyc ndng thdn va xudt khdu. Theo Trdn Thp Dat va Vii Thi Hodi Thu (2012): da sd cdc hd gia dinh ven bien Viet Nam sdng chit yeu dua vdo ndng nghiep trong dd trdng lua nudc dugc coi Id hogt ddng chu yeu ^\
Nudc bien dang ciing eac hinh tinic thdi ttet cyc doan nhu ban ban, lu lut Hen tiep xdy ra gdy khd khan cho ngdnh ndng ngMep. Amita Bhaduri (2013) va Dmh Vii Thanh (2013) cho rdng, nMet dp tang len kMen cho lupng nudc hoc hai eiing tang cao, ddn din lupng nudc tudi heu bi tiueu hyt ngMem ttpng; ban niia, myc nudc bien dang cao ciing ldm tang cdc vimg ddt bi ngap man ddn tdi tinh trang man hda nudc phyc vy ndng ngMep cdc vimg ven bien''". Theo Dmh Vii Thanh (2013), neu nudc Men dang len lm cd khd nang
anh hudng tdi 12% dien tich vd 20% ddn sd Viet Nam, lam ngap khoang tir 0,3 den 0,5 tneu ha tai i^ng bSug sdng Hdng va 1,5 - 2 ttieu ha tai dong bang sdng Cim Long va hang tram ngan ha ven Men mien Trung. Ubc tinh \^et Nam se mat di khoang 2 ttieu ha ddt ti'dng lua ttong tdng sd khoang hon 4 ttieu ha Men nay, de dpa nghiem ttpng den an ninh luong thuc qudc gia va anh hudng den hdng chuc ttieu ngudi dan'^. Ciing theo tdc gia, tdn tiiat do tMen tai cua ndng ngMep va nong tiidn Viet Nam ttr nam 1991 den nam 2009 da len toi khoang 2,7 ty USD. Theo bdo cao tdng hop cdng tac cM dao ling phd vdi bdo sd 8 ngdy 31.10.2012 cua Ban CM dao PCLB TW, tong tiiiet hai do bdo sd 8 gay ra ddi vdi nganh ndng ngMep udc tinh tren 7.000 Xy dong (gdm ca thuy san), frong dd 26.581 ha lua miia, 67.290 hacdyvuDdng, 551.319congiasuc,giacdmbich8t Theo kieh ban Bien ddi kM hau dupe Bd Tdi nguj:^' va Mdi trudng cap nhdt ndm 2011, neu muc nudc bien dang lni,secdkhoang39% dien tich ddng bang song Cim Long, tren 10% dien tich vung ddng bdng sdng Hdng vd Qudng Ninh, vd tien 2,5% dien tieh tiiupe cac tinh ven bien mien Trung cd nguy co bi n g ^ '*'.
Bien ddi kM hdu cdn gdy dnh hudng ve ca sd ha tdng va ttiang titilt bi phuc vu ndng ngMep. Theo UNJP (2011), Selvaraju va cpng sy (2006), Dang Thi Hoa va Quyin Dmh Hd (2014), bien ddi kM hdu con B nguyen nhan gay anh hudng din su tang ttudng eac loai hoa mdu bang viec nit ngan thdi gian tang tmimg va gidm nang sudt cay ttdng*'^. NgMen cuu cua FAO (2011) cho tiidy kM nMet do tang them VC, nd se lam chdm qua trinh phdt ttien eua lua tir 5 den 8 ngay*^, va ddi vdi dau va khoai tdy Id 3 den 5 ngdy. NMet dp tang cao va sy thay ddi lupng mua eiing Id nguyen nhan gay gia tang cdc lodi sinh vdt gdy hai cho cdy tidog nhu sdu cudn la, ddy nau, sdu budm, bp cdnh cimg ndm,... Ben canh dd, nhiing thay ddi ve dieu Men thoi tiet do bien ddi kM hdu ciing gdp phan lam gia tai^
cac qud tiinh xdi mdn, sat Id, ngap iing, ngap rrm,,".
kMen cho dien tich ddt ndng ngMep ngdy cdng Ihu h ^ Hdu qua Id ndng sudt va san lupng bi gidm siit. UNJP (2011) du bdo san luang liia vu ddng xudn ciia khu vyc Nam Trung Bp se gidm 10% vdo nam 2020 4 gidm 8% vao nam 2070, cdn khu vyc ddng bdng sdng Hong se gidm la 12,5% va 16,5 %'''.
Ly luSn chinh Iri & Tk>uyen thdng S6'thdng 3'20l6_
THU'C T l i N - KINH NGHlEM
Ddi vdi vdt nudi. Men ddi kM hau keo theo la cdc Men tupng tiidi tiet cue doan ciing gay nMlu tdn tiidt, nhu lam hdng cd sd khu nudi, vdt nudi bi chet hoac chdm Idn. Tac gid Bill Thi Kim Dung (2013) cho rdng:
bien ddi khi hgu dang de dga mdi tnrdng sdng. de dga den nguon cung cdp thirc dn vd nudc uong cho chdn nudi, gidm sice de khdng vd tdng ngwy ca bung phdt cdc dich benh ""'. Theo bao cdo eua Cue Chan nudi tiong dot ret vao nam 2011, dd cd han 28.690 gia siie bi ehet ret; ttiDng dd 96% la be nghe non va tim, bd gia; sd edn lai Id cdc gia sue khac. l/dc tinh tMet hai ddi vdi dan vat nudi do ret dam, ret hai Id hem 130 ty ddng, chua tinh den cdng lao dpng, vat tu va sue san xudt cua vat nudi giam siit. Theo thdng ke so bp cua Cyc chdn nudi, sd gia sue bi chet do ret dam, ret hai len tdi 25.260 con frong nam 2012 "". Vdi tinh Mnh bien ddi kM hdu nhu Men nay, du bao ttong nhirng nam tdi, nhiing con sd tren cdn gia tang gdp nMeu lan.
Bien ddi khi hdu vd nudi trdng. ddnh bat thuy sdn Cimg vdi ndng ngMep, nudi trdng va danh bat thuy san ddng vai ttd quan ttpng trong viec ddm bdo smh ke cua ngudi dan ven biln. UNFCCC COP 15 (2009) udc tinh rang: ed hon 500 trieu ngudi sdng d cae nudc dang phdt trien mdt cdch true tiep bode gidn tiep sdng phu thudc vao viec danh bat va nudi trdng tiiiiy san *'^'.
O Viet Nam ddy Id mpt ngdnh ddng vai ttd bet site quan trpng ddi vdi nen Mnh tl ddt nudc. Trong nhiing nam qua, san lupng thuy sdn cua Viet Nam tdng len khdng ngimg dd gdp phan quan ttpng trong viec gdp phdn xoa ddi gidm ngheo, cung cdp dinh dudng va nang cao thu nhap cho nhdn dan, vd tting budc ndng eao Mm ngach xudt khau eiia ddt nudc. Tuy nMen, ddnh bdt va nudi trdng tiiuy san la ngdnh nghe chiu dnh hudng Idn tti sy biln ddi tiidi tilt, Trong dd, nMet dp ddng vai ttd quan trpng cho qua trinh sinh tiirdng va phdt trien eiia sinh vat ndi chung va cac loai thuy sdn ndi rieng.
Worldfish Center (2007) cho rdng, nMet dp tang gdy anh hudng den qua Irinh sinh sdng ciia suih vdt, ngudn thuy hai san bi phdn tan, cac loai ca can nMet ddi cd gid Oi Mnh tl cao bi giam di hode mdt hdn. NMet dp tang ddn ttong nhimg tii^ men gdn day cung vdi no la Men tupng ndng ndng kMen nMet dp trong nudc tang len anh budng tdi sue chiu dyng ciia cac lodi sinh
vdt, frong dd cd cac Ioai nudi, Su tang nM8t dd cd the Iam suy giam sdn lupng tiiuy sdn ttong cac ao hd. Vi dy, nMet dp phu hpp de tdm tang trudng la tir 25 - 32°C, nlu nMet dp thdp hon 25°C hoac cao ban 32*C se ldm ehdm qua trinh tang ttirdng eua loai nay. NMeu ngMen cuu cho thay rang kM nMet dp tang len Iam cho hdm lupng oxi ttong nudc trong gidm manh vdo ban dem, do sy tieu thy qud miic ciia cdc lodi thyc vdt thuy sinh, hodc qud trinh phdn hpp chdt hiru ca. Sy suy giam ham lupng oxi lam dnh hudng den sy sinh tmong va phat trien cua loai nudi, tdm ed the bi chet bode chdm Idn. Dieu ndy de nhdn thdy qua hien tupng Men tupng phu dudng cua cac ao nudi; ca ndi ddu vao budi sang frong cae ao nudi; thiiy trieu dd va tdo chet hang boat d cdc vimg ven Men.
Them vao dd, sy thay ddi nhiet dp eung la dieu Men ly tudng xudt Men cdc loai benh dieh ddi vdi cdc gidng nudi ttdng. Bdi kM nMet dp tang cao se kMen sue khde ciia con gidng eiing nhu mdi tmdng nude frd nen xau di vd dd ehinh Id dieu Men de cdc sinh vdt cd hai phat trien. Trong nhiing nam gdn day, cimg vdi su suy thodi ciia mdi tmdng vd bien ddi khi hdu kM8n nMeu dich benh biing phdt gay ra Men tupng tdm ehet tren dim rdng d nMeu tinh thanh kMen cho ngudi nudi trdng thily sdn lam vdo tinh cdnh khd khan. Theo thdng ke nam 2011 cho thdy, tdm nude Ip bi dich benh tten dien rpng, gay tMet hai khoang tren 97.000 ba t ^ trung nMlu d Bac Ueu va Sdc Trang. Nam 2012, khoang 100,776 ha, nam 2013 Id 68.099 ha tdm nudc Ip bi benh tren toan qude. Dau nam 2012, benh siia d tdm hiim ldm ngudi nudi mat hdng tram ti ddng, Ndm 2011, ngao nudi d tai cac tinh Tien Giang, Ben Tre, Bac Lieu bi chet hang loat vdi tdng dien tich tMet hai 2.980 ha, gia tri tMet hai khoang 648 ty ddng. Dau thdng 8 ndm 2014, cd 1.096 ha ngao chet d Thai Binh.
Ca nudi long tren Men ciing thudng gap dich benh gdy chit rai rdc vd thudng chit hang loat d Qudng Ninh, Hai Phdng, Thira TM8n Hue, Khanh Hod vd Bd Ria - Vimg Tdu <'^'.
Myc nudc Men ddng cao dnh hudng tdi he sinh tbdi ven biln gay dnh hudng tdi ngudn tiiuc an va noi cu tni cho edc loai ca ty nMen. Ngoai ra, sy tan pha cua bdo vd dp tiidp nhiet ddi cdn anh hudng den he sinh thdi cung nhu co sd ha tdng cua vung nudi. Bdo
Sd'thang 3-2016 Ly luSn c h i n h tri & IVuy^n Chdng
THLTC T l i N - KINH NGHIEM
vd ^ thdp nMet ddi cudng dp manh va lupng mua Idn lam cho ndng dp mudi gidm di ttong mpt tiidi gian ngan ddn din sinh vdt nudc Ip vd ven bd hi chet hang loat, gay tMet hai vl kinh tl cho cdng ddng cu ddn sdng chu ylu dua vdo boat ddng nudi frdng thuy sdn.
Bien ddi kM hdu keo tiieo Id eac Men Mpng tiidi tiet bdt tiiudng nhu lanh, ndng ndng, bao lii dnh hudng tiuc tiep tdi ngudi nudi frdng. Cd nhiing dpt ret dam ret hai, dde Met cdc nam 2001,2003,2006 vd nhdt Id dpt ret ndm 2008 da kMen hang van dam nudi trong thuy sdn va cac trai san xudt gidng bi tiuet hai hdng ngdn ty ddng. Sy Men dpng bat thuong eua nMet dp nudc Men dan din suy tiioai cdc h$ sinh thai ven bien, lam gidm ngudn lpi thuy san, ttilu cudng, lii, lut... ciing lam tiiay ddi ndng dp man, gay d nMem ngudn nudc ddn den benh dich cho tdm nudi, phd vo ao, dam nudi, Iam thdt thoat thiiy san nudi frdng. Cac tt:gn bao lut ndm 2002, can bao sd 5 vd sd 7 nam 2005 Iam hau bet cae ddm ngodi de den ky thu ho^ich bi mat tt^g. Cac dot trieu ddng cuoi ndm 2005, 2006, 2008 ldm hdng ti-dm ha ddm nudi tiiiiy san ven sdng mat tiiu hoach.
Ddi vdi ngudi ddn ldm nghe ddnh bat, WiMams and Rota (2014) nhdn dinh: san lupng danh bdt phu thupc vao site khde va ehiie nang cua he smh thdi bien nhu vung ddnh bdt cd ddi dao hay khdng phu tiiudc vao mdi ttudng sinh sdng, ngudn cung cdp thiic an va mdi tiirdng sinh sdn ciia cdc loai'''''. Bien ddi kM hdu cung vdi sy gia tang ve nMet dp vd suy thodi mdi tnrdng bien ddng ngMa vdi viec sy sdng va smh sdi eua cac loai bi suy gidm, eung Id nguyen nhdn ddn ten sy Myet chiing cac lodi. Nhiing dieu nay dnh hudng den ngudn ddnh bdt vd gidm san lupng danh bdt
Them vao dd, bien ddi kM hdu eiing mat dp xudt Men eac con bao ngdy cdng nMlu dd dnh hudng Idn tdi cu dan tryc tiep lam nghl ddnh bit ven biln bdi da sd hp la nhiing ngudi ngheo ttong xd hpi, cdng cu ddnh bdt thd so kM gap bao Idn dl bi tMet hai ca vl ngudi va tai saa Trong nhiing t h ^ ky qua, sd lupng cac con bdo anh hudng den Viet Nam khdng cM cd xu hudng tang len ma mirc dp dnh hudng ngay cang nMlu. Cy thl, nam 2006,10 con bao vdi cudng dp manh, cae dpt gid mita Ddng Bac keo ddi vd cae Men ttrpng tiidi tilt bat tiiudng khae da tac ddng ddng kl din boat ddng tiiuy sdn vd gdy ra tiiiet hai cho ngudi va tdu ca boat dpng
tten biln, dac biet can bao sd 1 (Chanchu) gdy tiiiet hai rdt Idn cho ngu dan khai thac viing biln xa bd. Ngoii ra, flupt hai vl ngudi va vdt chdt ddi vdi c^ng ding ngu ddn ven bien ciing la rdt dang k& kM can bao sd 9 (Du- rian) dd bp vao bd.
Ket lugn:
Cd tiie ndi. Men ddi kM hdu vd nhimg anh huong tilm tang cua nd ddi vdi mdi ttudng vd cdc he thong kinh tl xd hdi da va dang trd thdnh mdi quan tam Ion cua nhdn loai nhdt Id nhung thap ky gan ddy Tai Viet Nam, hien chua cd cdc ngMen cuu ddy dii ve tdc dpng cua bien ddi kM hdu ddi vdi ndng ngM?p va khai thac thiiy san. Tuy nMen, vdi nhiing nguy co vd tiiach tbiic dang tiem an doi vdi nhirng Imh vuc nhay cdm vcfl bien ddi kM hdu ndy cd the se rdt Idn. Do vdy, vSn dS dat ra la Nhd nude nen ddu M vd huy dpng su tham gia eua cdc nhd khoa hpc vd cdng ddng nhdm nghien ciiu nhirng tac ddng cu the eiing nhu dua ra nhirng giai phap Men qud nhdt de phdt trien ngdnh ndng nghiep va nudi ttdng, ^ n h bdt thuy san theo hudng bin vung de gidm nhe nhiing tMet hai vd cd khd nang tMch iing tdt vdi bien ddi kM hdu.n
(1), (3) Tran Tho Dat va Vii Thi Hoai Thu, fiien ^01 Afti'ft^a vd smh ki ven bien. Nxb Giao thong Vgn tdi, H,20n,
(2) FAO, Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Viet- Ham.H,201I.
(4) Amita Bhaduri, Impact of climate change on life and livelihood ofDalits,ln'£^20l3
(5), (6) Dinh Vu Thanh, Tdc dong vd gidi phdp ung pho vdi bien ddi khi hgu cua ngdnh Nong nghiep - Phdt trien nong ihdn, Bp Nong nghiep va PTNT, 2013
(7), (9) UNJP, Strengthening capacities to enhance coordi- nated and integrated diasler nsk reduction actions and adi^la- tion to climate change in agriculture in the northen moulain regions of Vietnam, H.20I1.
(8) FAO, Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Viet- nam, H,2011,
(10), (\\)Bui'ThiKmi'Dmig, Biin dSi khi hgu vd nhiing thdch Ihuc doi v&i ngdnh chdn nuoi. Tap san Khoa hpc va Giao due so 2 , H. 2013: Tr. 10-106
(12} UNFCCC COP 15, Fisheries and aquaculture in a changing climate, Copeiihagen.2009.
(13) B§ Nong nghiep va Phat liien nong thon, Dif dn Quan Irdc moi trudng phuc vu nuoi trdng thdy sdn, H.2014
(14) Wilhams, L. and A Rota, Impact of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture in the developing world and oppotma- tiesfor adaptation, Italy. 2014
82 Ly luan chinh tri & IVuy^'n thdng Sd'thang 3-2016