NGHIDN CXJiji
Sau Covid-19: Viet Nam co nhieu loi the de thu hut FDI
Nguy& Till Thanh "Iliuong Truong Dgi hoc Kinh te NghO An
COVlD-19, ten ehinh Uiue eua logi djcb bOnh, da inh hudng den hiu hOt cie llnh vyc bong ddi sd'ng vi ^"^^"T^?
dOn hiu khip eie qudc gia bdn UiO gidi. Ngoai nhiing inh hudng vO ddi sdng xa hOi, vO ehinh bj, Uii kinh Id Ii Unh vye ch}u inh hudng hiong ddi ngng nO. Quy TiOn 10 quoc tO (IMF) dy b i o tang Uudng loin ciu se giim Uong n i m nay, vi UiO gidi dang ddi mgi vdi "mdt bin suy Uioii tuong duong, hoic 10 hon khdng hoing tii chfnh 2008". Td chuc Du l|ch ThO gidi udc Unh lugng khich du Ileh qudc tO sd giim 60-80% bong nim 2020.
1. Dai dich COVID-19 anh hirdng den kinh te'the giol Va Viet Nam
Ngin hing The gidi (WB) eho ring eic nude dang phil IriOn dang mil di mdt ngudn thu quan bpng, khi cic biOn phip phong tda bdn toin ciu nhim ngin chin sy lay Ian eua d|ch COVID-19 da khiOn lugng kiOu hdi giim mgnh. V/B nhin d|nh lugng kiOu hdi trfin toin ciu dy kiOn se giim khoing 20% trong nim 2020, mue giim Idn nhit trong lich su gin day, do viOe eie doanh nghiOp ngimg hogt ddng gay ra Unh trgng suy thoii kinh tO loan eiu vi mit viOc lim khien ngudi Iao dOng d nude ngoai khdng UiO giri UOn vO nha. Tdng sd kiOu hdi bong nam 2020 dy IdOn se giim xudng edn 440 ty USD, til miic 554 ty USD nam 2019
Dudi nhtrng tac ddng vO kinh tO IhO gidi d tren, Hgi nghj LiOn hgp qude vO Thucmg mgi va Phit triOn (UNCTAD) hdi thang 1/2020 udc Unh ddng vdn FDI loin ciu trong nam 2019 dgt 1.390 ty USD va dy bao muc niy lang khoing 5% bong nam 2020. Song hiOn theo dy b i o ciia UNCTAD, mue nky cd the giam chgm diy kO td eudc khung hoang tii ehinh 2008 nOu dich COVID-19 liy lan vi diOn biOn phue tgp bong nam nay.
Cy thO, bong bdo c i o edng bd ngay 8/3, HOi nghi Lien hgp qude vO Thuong mgi vi Phit triOn n h ^ djnh sy bOng phil cua dleh viem dudng hd h i p eip COVID-19 sd khiOn diu tu tryc UOp nude ngoai (FDI) toan eiu giim 5-15% so vdi ckc dy b i o duge dua ra budc dd.
Nhu viy, ed thO thiy duge nhimg anh hudng khdng nhd ctia COVID-19 dOn ndn kinh lO loan IhO gidi, va ViOt Nam eung khdng nim ngoai tie dpng dd. Bp Ke hogch va Diu tu vira cho biOt, sau 4 Uiing diu nam, vd'n diu tu nude ngoii (FDI) vao ViOl Nam dgi 12,33 ly USD, bing 84,5% so vdi eung ky nam 2019... Tinh dOn ngiy 20/4, ude vdn d i giii ngan duge 5,15 ty USD, bing 90,4% so vdi eiing ky...
Cy thO, trong 4 thing diu nim, e i nude ed 984 dy an mdi duge e i p gi^y ehung nhin ding ky diu hr tdng
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v6n dang ki' dgt 6,78 ty USD, giim 9,1% vO sd dy an v i tang 26,9% vO s6 vd'n ding ky so vdi ciing ky n i m 2019 (rieng dy dn Nhi may diOn khi ty nhidn hda Idng (LNG) Bgc Lidu ed l6ng vdn d i u hr 4 tj' USD, chiOm 59% tdng vd'n ding ky mdi). Bdn egnh cae dy i n ding ky mdi, ed 335 lugt dy i n dang k^' diOu ehinh vdi tdng vdn tang thdm dgi ben 3,07 ly USD, tang 45,6% so vdi cting ky n i m 2019.
Theo Bd KO hogch v i Diu tu, vdn diOu chinh ting dot biOn sau khi giim lidn tye trong 3 thing d i u n i m 2020 do ed Dy i n td hgp hoi dau MiOn Nam ViOt Nam tgi Bi Ria - Vung Tiu didu ehinh tang vdn d i u tu thdm 1,386 ty USD. Tuy nhien sd lugt dy an didu chinh vdn trong 4 thing d i u nam van giam 5,2% so vdi cimg k^.
Ngoai ra, cdn ed 3.210 lugt gdp vdn, mua c6 phin cua nha diu tu nude ngoai vdi tdng gia tri gin 2,48 ty USD, tang 32,9% sd lugt gdp vdn, mua eo phin v i bang 34,7% so vdi ciing ky nam 2019.
Mac dil sd lugt gop vdn, mua cd phin tang, song quy mO gdp vd'n nhd, binh quan ehi cd 0 77 triOu USD/lugl gdp vdn, nhd hon nhiOu so vdi quy md binh quan so vdi eiing ky. Ca ciu gi^ tri gop vdn, mua ed phin bong tdng vdn diu lu dang k^- eung gi^m ding ke so vcn cung ky, tu 48,9% irong 4 Uiing nam 2019 xudng 20,1 % bong 4 Uiing nam 2020.
Bao eao cua Bg KO hogch va Diu tu cung eho biOt:
nhlOu khd khan, Uiich ihuc cho V n Wnh tO th^ -•
ndi Chung vi ViOl Nam ndi rieng (v^ du , r ? " "
giim 30-40% FDI toan cau bonq o^ T . ' ^ ' ^ va ^,01 Nam 1. mdt trong 20 nOnMnh 0 hi a ? . " ' " ' ' nhiOu nhil do gian dogn ngudn eung igi T ^ eung nhu nguy eo c i e doanh nghiOp bone n"!^^ ^^^'^
tip doan da qude gia Uiau tdm qua e l c T '""^"^
mua bin, sip nh§p eao), luy nhien, ViOl Nam ^ ^ triOn vgng Ihu hut FDI bong nam 2020. ^^ ^^^^
2. Nhung i d the cua Viet Nam trong thu hut FDI didl gian tdi
Ngoii nhtmg Igi thO dii ban nhu chinh sach uu dii diu hi, chi phi nhin cdng rO, thi trudng rdng Idn, thude khu vye phit triOn nang ddng bdn thO gidi thi bong giai dogn niy, ViOt Nam cdn cd nhtrng Igi thO nhit d|nh dO thu hut ddng vdn FDI, eu IhO nhu sau:
Thd nhil, Yiit Nam l i mdt bong nhting qudc gia kidm soit djcb COVID-19 tdi nhat Uie gidi hiOn nay. Cy Uid, ViOt Nam duge dinh gii eao bong no lye phong, ehdng vi ngan chin dich bOnh liy lan bong edng ddng. Trong diu tu, sy an toan chinh la mdt trong nhung ydu td quan bgng duge gidi d i u tu nude ngoai qucin tim Idn nhit hiOn nay. Chinh vi vgy, kiii d i u lu Vcio ViOl Nam trong thdi gian tdi, c i c n h i d i u tu nude ngoii sd cim thiy duge ydn tim, didu nay anh hudng khk Idn dOn quyOt djnh d i u lu, v i do la eo hdi thu hut FDI eho ViOt Nam.
Thd hai, djeh bOnh v i chiOn tranh thuong mgi My - Tmng khiOn cic nha diu lu nude ngoii cd xu hudng nit vdn diu tu khdi Tmng Qud'c. Dgi dich COVID-19 eho thiy, thO gidi d i q u i phu thudc vao Tmng Qudc, do dd eie ddng vdn qude lO cd ehit lugng UJ XU hudng phan tin rui ro, sip xOp lai mang ludi s i n xuit loan ciu trong diu tu qudc tO sd duge diy mgnh hon va
"day li eo hdi eho ViOt Nam".
Theo cic chuydn gia, djeh bdnh se thue diy eie nhi diu tu xem xOt dich chuyOn ddng vdn, du i n FDI ttt Tmng Qud'c vi lanh thd lien quan (Hdng Kdng, Macau...), vd'n di da djeh ehuyOn thdi gian qua cung nhu bdi cinh cang thing thuong mgi My - Tmng. Cd quan diOm tuong ty. Id New York Times eung dy bao, ddng vdn diu tu nude ngoai dich chuyen tu Tmng Qud'c sang ViOt Nam dO banh thue cua My "cd the duge diy nhanh hon" do dich cum COVID-19.
Ddng quan diOm, dng Takeo Nakajima - Trudng dgi diOn Vin phdng Td chuc Xuc Udn thuong mai Nhat Bin (JETRO) lgi Ha Ndi cho biOt, de phan tan nii ro, da cd 122 doanh nghiOp Nhit Ban quyet djnh di ddi sin xuit ra khdi Trung Qud'e, noi duge lya chgn chuyen dOn hang diu chfnh la ViOt Nam vdi 42,3% bong sd 122 doanh nghiOp Nhat Bin lua chgn. "Yiet Nam dung dau danh sich, vdi 42,3% bong sd 122 doanh nghiep ndi IrOn lya ehpn. XOp sau ViOt Nam la Thai Lan (20,6%), Philippines (18,6%) va Indonesia (16,5%)", dng Takeo Nakajima ndi va cho biO't, cac doanh nghiep Nhil Ban di ddi khdi Tmng Qud'c khdng chi vi chien banh Uiuong mgi, m i cdn de "ne" ehi phi diu vao ngay cing ting eao d thi tnrdng nay.
Theo dng NguyOn Bich Lam, Tdng eye tnrdng Tdng cyc Thdng ke, ehiOn banh thuong mai My - Tmng co UiO tgo thu^n lgi ve thu hiit va dich chuyOn FDI lgi Vidt Nam. Cudc chiOn thuong mai My - Tmng d i khien nha
d i u tu nude ngoai djeh ehuyOn vdn diu tu ra khdi Trung Qudc sang e i e nude Ddng Nam A dO hgn che nii ro bong 1 - 2 nam vira qua. Tim ly e nggi nii ro nay cung tinh hinh dich bOnh ngiy eang phiic tgp tren toan eiu khien cic nhi diu lu Ihuc diy tiOn trinh djcb ehuyOn nhanh ehdng vi quyOt liOt ban, tao ndn mdl eudc d|ch ehuyOn dong vd'n diu tu kep. Trong dd, ViOt Nam duge xem la diem ddn sing gii bdi UOm nang phit bien kinh tO, khi ning kiOm soit td'l dieh bOnh, cung nhu Chinh phu quyOt lim cii thiOn mgnh md mdi trudng dau tu, kinh doanh.
Thu ba, ViOt Nam da sdm ky kOt cic HiOp d}nh Uiuong mgi Ur do (FTA) vdi EU. ViOc da vi dang Uiam gia hing loat eae FTA thO hO mdi, bong dd cd HiOp djnh Thuong mgi Viet Nam — Lien minh chiu Au (EVFTA) cung tgo ndn nhtrng nOn ling vi bO dd quan bpng dO FDI chay vao Vidt Nam. Tinh iQy kO dOn nam 2019, EU li ddi tie diu br Idn Uiu tu tgi \^0l Nam vdi bdn 2.240 dy i n con hiOu lyc, Idng vdn dang ky li 24,67 ty USD, luong duong 7,6% tdng vdn FDI vio ViOt Nam. Cic nhi diu tu EU da ed mat tai hiu hOt cie nginh kinh lO quan trpng ciia Viet Nam, cic dy i n diu tu ciia EU cd him lugng vi ty 10 chuyOn giao edng nghO eao, phuong phip quin Iy uen Udn, ddng gdp ding kO vao tang budng kinh tO eua ViOt Nam. Die biOt, Udn tyc bong nhting nam qua, EU ludn la mdt bong nhung dd'i lie vien tiq ODA Idn nhit eho ViOt Nam.
Theo eic chuydn gia, lgi thO bong thu hiit FDI eiia Viet Nam den lu viOc sdm kf kdt FTA vdi EU trong khi cie nirae canh banh chinh bong khu vyc vO thuong mai va dau tu chua cd FTA vdi EU. Lgi uio niy ed UiO chi Ion tgi bong ngin hgn, vi djnh hudng cua c i ASEAN va EU la mgt FTA giOa hai khu vye. Khi EU tiOp tue dam phin, ky kOt FTA song phuong vdi eic nude ASEAN, lgi the ve IhuO nhip khau thip hon, cic co che' tao thuan Igi thuong mai vi diu tu danh ridng cho Viet Nam se khdng edn. Vi viy, ViOt Nam cin tin dung triet de khoang "Uidi gian ving" khi eie nude ASEAN chua ed FTA vdi EU dO Udp can, tham nhap Uij trudng cung nhu Uiu hut FDI tii cie nude EU. EVFTA l i HiOp dinh CO phgm vi cam ket rdng va mue dd cam kOt eao nhat cua Viet Nam tir trude den nay, ddng Uidi cung l i mgt trong nhtrng hidp djnh toan diOn va tham vpng nhat ma EU Kmg ky ket vdi mdt nude dang phil IriOn.
Do vay, FDI tir EU vao Vidt Nam duge dy b i o cd thO tang manh bong Ihdi gian tdi.
Thu hi, bien vgng kinh tO Viet Nam sau dgi dleh duge danh gia eao. Cy thO, ngan hang UiO gidi vtra cd bao cao cap nhat Unh hinh kinh tO vT md ViOt Nam Uiang 5/2020 vdi nhung danh gii Igc quan vO trien vgng nen kinh te Viet Nam trong nhting Uiing cdn lai ciia nam. Nen kinh tO Yiet Nam cd Uie khdi s i e sau khi ndi idng cac biOn phap cich ly xa hdi.
Lien quan tdi kinh tO ViOl Nam, bong bing xOp hang sue khde tai ehinh ciia 66 nOn kinh tO mdi ndi
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NGHIEN O J u
eua The Econonust, ViOt Nam dung Uiu 12, Uiugc nhdm an toin sau djeh COVID-19 nhd cic chi sd' tii chinh dn dfnh.
Bing xOp hgng cua tgp ehi The Economist dua trdn 4 chi s6 sue mgnh tai chinh, bao gdm ng cdng, ng nude ngoii, chi phi di vay vi dy tru ngogi hdi- Theo dd, hon 30 nOn kinh tO mdi ndi dang ddi mgt vdi i p Iyc kin, 10 nhit li Lebanon va Venezuela
Trong nhdm c i c nOn kinh lO an toin, Botswana dihig diu, UOp Uieo li Dii Loan va Hin Qude. ViOt Nam xOp Uiu 12 sau Tmng Qude vi Guatemala, nhung ddng budc Ba Lan vi Nigeria vdi cic cbi sd ng edng, ng nude ngoii, cbi phi di vay vi dy Uu ngogi hdi ddu d mue dn d|nh cho dOn mgnh. ViOt Nam khdng cd ehi sd n i o thudc diOn "bio ddng dd".
Cic td ehue qudc tO dy b i o tang budng kinh lO ctia ViOl Nam nam 2020 ehi dgi mue 2,7% - 4,9% do nOn kinh tO b| tie ddng ca d phia cung vi eiu. Tuy nhidn, cie td chuc qu6c tO vin dinh gii ViOl Nam li mdl bong sd it nude dgt duge mue tang trudng duong vi cd inh hudng eiia d|ch thip hon cic nude khic. TriOn vpng kinh tO ViOt Nam trong Imng hgn duge dinh gii Uiuin Igi do nhu ciu bong nude va xuit khiu vin d miic cao
3. Viet Nam can chuan bt nhung gi de don dong von FDI sau dai djcb COVi'D-19
M$c du cd nhting Igi thO vi tin hiOu Uch cyc trong thu hut FDI Uidi gian tdi, luy nhidn cin phii nhin thiy ring dd thu hiit duge 12,33 ly USD sau 4 Uiing dau nam 2020, nhung nOu bir di dy an Nha miy DiOn khi ty nhien hda Idng (LNG) Bgc Udu duge dang k>' mdi vdi tdng vdn diu tu 4 ty USD, thi quy md trung binh ehi tren 2 triOu USD/dy i n — qui nhd so vdi myc tifeu Uiu hiil 10
— 15 biOu USD/dy in. HiOn vin cdn rit it dy in FDI phu hgp vdi Nghi quyOl 50 eua Bd Chinh tri vO dinh hudng hoin thiOn the chO, ehinh sach, ning eao ehit lupng, hiOu qui hgp tie diu tu nude ngoai dOn nam 2030.
Chinh vi thO, dO cd IhO tiOp bic Uiu hut FDI tgo ddng lye tang trudng vi phit IriOn kinh le. ddng Uidi tin dyng "co hdi ving" ddn ddng FDI UiO gidi, ngoii viOc cd thO nghidn ciiu ban binh eie gdi kich ciu, cie ehinh sich uu dai dgc biOt cho eic nhi diu tu nude ngoii bong Uidi gian tdi, Uii vO dii hgn Viet Nam can thyc hlOn tdt cic giii phap sau diy:
Mdt la, UOp tye cii UiiOn mdi budng dau tu Uidng qua hoin UUOn hO Uidng phap luil, chinh saeh lien quan dOn diu tu theo hudng cdng khai, minh bach, nhit quin vi ddi xu edng bang vdi lit c i cic logi DN:
hoin thiOn eiiinh sieh uu dai, khuyOn khich diu tu trdn nguydn tic gin vdi co chO kiem ba, gidm sat de dam b i o DN FDI Uiyc hiOn dung earn kOt diu bi, tuan Uiu dung UOu chi, diOu kiOn hudng uu dai; Uep h^c
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hoin UUOn co chO, chinh sich dO tgo ddng '''*^JJ eho thu hut va su dyng FDI vio e i e khu cdng "^"7^' khu chO xuit, khu kinh tO, khu cdng nghO cao. khu ndng nghiOp cdng nghO cao.
Hai la, tiOp h^c ed ehinh sieh uu dai Uiud nhim l|0 su ehuyOn biOn bong phin bd ngudn lyc. khuyen khieh vi Uiu hut d i u hi ed ehpn Ipc dO phit Ui^n eic vung cd diOu kiOn kinh lO - xa hdi khd khan; khuyen khich uu dai UiuO vao e i c nginh s i n xuil sin phim cd gii bi gia tang Idn; Uidng nhit toin bd nganh, linh vyc, dia bin uu dii thuO duge quy djnh tai cae luit Uiud, khdng thyc hiOn theo e i c luit chuydn nginh.
Ba li, ri soit, hoin UUOn ebfnh sich uu dai vd dit dai dO d i m b i o Unh ddng bd gitra phip luil dit dai, phip luOt vO d i u hr v i e i e chinh sich khic ciia Nhi nude. Xie dinh ro dd'i tugng duge hudng uu dai vO d i t dai. ViOc uu dai phii Uiye chit va chi nOn Uiyc hiOn ddi vdi cae dy i n d i u tu vio c i e linh vyc phat bidn co sd hg ting kinh tO, ky thuit, eo sd hg ling xa hgi, b i o vO mdi trudng, dau tu vao dja b i n kinh tO - xa hdi khd khan vi cic ddi tugng chinh sich.
Bdn la, tip tmng xiy dyng, hoan thiOn he thdng eo sd dir liOu, thdng tin qudc gia vO dau tu ddng bd, thdng sudt vO DN FDI dO cic co quan tmng uong, dia phuong tdng hgp, danh gla, giam sit hiOu qui, kjp thdi; xiy dyng CO chO kidm soit dO hgn chO eac DN FDI 16 Idy kO, Id mit vdn nhung van UOp tue dau tu md rOng dO duge hudng uu dii thuO; tang cudng nang luc giim sit Unh hinh tii chinh v i hoat ddng s i n xuat kinh doanh cua cic DN FDI; edng khai, minh bgeh Uidng Un vO hogt ddng vi Unh hinh tai ehinh ciia c i c DN FDI, sdm phit hien vi phdng ngua c i c nguy eo gay bit dn kinh tO-xahdi./.
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