NGHIEN c u u
l^voig lam phM oia h6 gia cBnh tm thanh
TS.E)|ngVanDan
Khoa Tm chinh, truong Dai hoc Ngan hang TP.HCM ThS. Nguy&i "Ming H l ^ Khoa Ngan hang, trirong Dai hoc Ng&i hang T?.HC!^
Tdm tdt: BSi vigt nliy thuc hi^n nghign ciiu ly thuyet k^ vgng v^ lam phat dya tren khao sat vk phan tich v^ ky vong lgm phAt cua cac h6 gia dinh tgi TP.HCM. B ^ g phucmg phap kiem dinh trung binh v^ h6i quy tuy^n tinh da cho th£yky vong lam phat cua ho gia dinh tai TP.HCM co th^ la ky vong theo nep gap thdng tin hoSc ky vong thich nghi. D6ng thdi nghien ciiu cung xac djnh tAc dgng cua hanh vi mua s ^ mot s6 c^c h^ng h6a djch vu, thu nhap, vay no, cac bi^n s6 v! mo, thong tin, su tin tudng vao chinh sich cua chi'nh phii... ddl voi sif thay d6i cOa ky vong lgm phdt d^ tao co sd de xuit mot sd ki^n ngh| chinh sach.
TCr khda: Iam phat ky vong, ky vong hgrp ly, ky vpng thich nghi, thanh phd H 6 Chi Minh
1. Dat van Se
Tai TP.HCM, tu sd li^u ciia Tdng cue thdng ke cho th^y trong giai dogn 2004 — 2011, CPJ cua thanh phd c6 xu hudng bign ddng manh hon CPI chung ciia Viet Nam, cac mirc tang va giam CPI cua TP.HCM iudn phin ling rd ret hon so vdi ca nudc. Giai doan 2012 — 2014 thi miic bign ddng CPI cila TP.HCM bam sat miic bign ddng chung cOa ca nudc va nhigu thcri diem thap hon miic chung. Tuy nhign do miic tang cua phi y te, giao dye da iam cho lam phat tai TP.HCM bign ddng mgnh hon so vdi xu hudng chung cila ca nudc do dac digm tip tmng cac tnidng hpc, bgnh vign ldn cOa ca nudc tgi day. Mac dil su thgy ddi do co tinh chit hanh chinh ngn chi anh hudng mdt lin, mang tinh thoi digm ddi vdi chi sd gia nhung rd ring anh hudng cila miic tang nay la liu dai ddi vdi ngan sach hd gia dinh(HGD) chu khdng chi tgi mdi thdi digm tang gii dd, nd cd the se lim cho ky vgng lgm phat (KVLP) cila HGD thgy ddi theo hudng tang len, vi$c nghign ciiu iam rd ve su thay ddi ky vgng cua HGD TP.HCM cang co vai trd quan trpng trong bdi canh nghien ciiu nhu vay.
Trong khi dd, KVLP ddng mdt phin quan trgng trong mdt chg dd l^ni phit muc tieu. Lgm phat ky vong la hign tugng cd thg xuit hien d Viet Nam (Oy ban Kinh tg cila Qudc hdi, 2012), mdt sd nghidn ciiu cho rcing ky vpng tac ddng den vdi lam phit tgi Viet Nam nhu Nguydn Thi Thu Hing vi Nguydn Diic Thanh (2010, 2011) va Vuong Thi Thao Binh (2009) da chiing minh vin dg dn djnh tam ly va ky vpng la mdt trong nhung vin dg cin dugc queui tim trong de xuat chinh sich. Vi viy, quan tim den Iam phit ky vgng tai la mdt gdi y ddi vdi chinh sach ddi vdi co quan quin ly.
2. Ky vgng lam phat va en che hinh thanh Theo Hetzel (2000), lgm phat ky vgng l i mdt trong ba cich phin logi cilg l^un phat, bao gdm ciu keo, chi phi diy va lam phit ky vgng. Bay chinh la ty Id lam
phat duoc hinh thanh til KVLP. Cy thd hon, Curtin (2010) da dmh nghia KVLP cd thd dugc dinh nghia rdng rai nhu nigm tin hoac quan digm hay nhan thiic cila cac tac nhin kinh tg vg lam phit trong tuong lai.
Cd nhigu co che khic nhau cOa su hinh thinh KVLP tu dd tgd ngn lam phat ky vgng trong ngn kinh tg d i dugc su dyng trong cac nghign cuu lidn quan.
Cic nghign ciiu tai \^gt Nam khi ndi vg lgm phit tang cao thudng cho ring dd chi li mdt ph4n li mdt Cli sdc tam thdi v i gia sg mau chdng trd l^i binh.
Nhung thyc te gia c i phin Idn da khdng trd lai binh thudng vi HGD co Id d i thay ddi ky vgng cua minh tix v^n dg dd, tling ngay, tCmg ngay theo kigu ky vgng thich nghi. Rd ring sy ting gia nay khdng phii chi li bat ngudn tii ting tign qui miic, bien ddng gia tuong ddi nhu ty gii hay su thay ddi cSu true cila n^n kinh tg... ma con chju tic ddng cOa ygu td ky vgng, ydu td tim iy (Vuong Thanh Thio Binh, 2009).Nguygn Thj Thu H^ng va Nguyen Due Thinh (2010, 2011) chi ra ring cdng chiing cd khuynh hudng iim giii ^n tugng vg lam phit trong qui khii va ed ky vgng nhgy cim vg lam phit trong tucmg lai.
Ranyard vi cdng sxj (2008) d i dd xu5t mOt md hinh the hidn khai nigm vd nhin thiic va KVLP trong ngn kinh td nhu trong hinh 1. Trong dd thd hign n h ^ thiic va KVLP cua c i nhan cd mdi lign hd mit thidt vdi nhau.
Ve CO ban, c6 the thiy ygu td eo bin li thu nhip cila ngudi tigu dimg va nh§n thiic ciia hp vdi cic thdng tin bgn ngoai. Nhieu nghign ciiu khic nhau da xac dinh cac ydu td tic ddng ddn lgm phit Iq' vpng bao gdm thdng tin tir kinh td vi md (Carroll (2003a, 2003b)), lgm phat trong qua khu (G#rling vi Gamble (2006)), thu nhip cila HGD (Barnes vi Olivei (2013)), quydt dlnh mua sim cac tii san ldn vi cic khoin vay tigu dung (Acunto vi cdng sy (2016), sy tin tudng vio chinh sich cua chinh phil(Galati va cdng sy (2011), thdi quen sii dyng phuang tidn thanh toin (Kenneth (2014)).
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3. So lieu va phinmg phap nghien cihi
De dgt dugc muc tidu dd ra, nhdm nghidn cihi su- dyng khao sat thudng xuydn, dinh ky hang 6 thing cila td chiic nghign ciiu thi trudng Epanei. Thdi diem khao sat Ii hing 6 thing, vio diu quy 2 va quy 4 hing nam.
300 miu khio sat HGDdugc thu thip tai dia ban TP.HCM trong vdng 3 nam tii 2012 — 2014 hinh thanh 1800 quan sit.
Vg thu nhip taing binh cua toin HGD, chigm ^ le cao nh^t trong m^u cic HGD thudc cae nhdm thu nhip tCr 48 — 84 trigu ddng/thing vi 84—120 trigu ddng/thang (cung chidm 14,4% tdng so ngudi duoc khio sit), tidp sau la nhdm thu nhip tu 12 — 20 tridu ddng/thing (258 ngudi, chigm 14,3%) va sau dd ia nhdm thu nhip tii 20 — 48 vdi 245 ngudi (chigm 13,6%). Trdng miu nghign ciiu nhdm thu nhip dudi 3 tri^u/thing va tu 3 — 5 trigu/thing chiem thap nhit trong mau khio sit vdi ty lg lin lugt la 0,2% va 0.3%
Bign KVLP dudc do iudng bao gdm ky vpng 6 thing tdi va ky vgng trong 12 thing tdi cila HGD. Vigc do ludng ky vgng nay cd thg thuc hign qua phin tram ky vgng cy thg hoic qua ciu hdi lua chgn cic miic ky vgng d i sin cd. Gerlach vi cdng su (2011) nghign ciiu theo kinh nghidm cila nhigu nudc trgn thg gidi thi ky vpng cila HGD thudng kha mo hd, hg thudng cho bidt ky vgng tang/giam hoic khdng ddi chii khdng chac ch^n hoan toan vg nhdng con sd dua ra. Trong ngliign ciiu nay, sd ligu khio sat dugc thu thip theo ciu hdi lya chgn miic ky vgng.
KVLP trong 6 thing tdi (KV6); Trong 6 thing tiep theo, bgn ed nghi ring gii ndi chung sg ting len, hoac di xudng, hoic giu nguygn d miic hign tai? " va" Ban cho ring gia trong vdng 6 thing tdi tmng binh sg tang ddn khoing bao nhigu phin trim?"
KVLP trong 12 thing ldi (KV12): Trong 12 thing Uep theo, bgn cd nghi ring gii ndi ehung se ting len, hoac di xudng, hoic giu nguygn d miic iiign tai? " vi" Bgn cho ring gia trong vdng 12 thing tdi trung binh sg tang ddn khoing bao nhigu phin trim?"
Cic bidn sd tic ddng lin lugi ja:
- Nhdm bien vg dinh gia su tin tudng vio chinh sach cua chinh phii; CPI: hieu q u i lim vigc chung cua chinh phil, CP2: hieu qua cila chinh sach kidm soat lam phit v i that nghigp
- Nhdm bign vg thay doi gia ca trong qua khii bao gdm CTI: Thay ddi ciia chi phi sinh hoat so vdi 12 thing hTJdc, CT2: Thay ddi ciia chi phi sinh hoat khdng thiet yeu so vdi 12 thing trudc, CT3: Thay ddi cila chi tidu trong thing so vdi chi tidu trung binh 12 thing trudc, CT4: Sd lucmg khoin chi tidu bj cat giim khi thu nhip giim trong q u i khii
- Nhdm bien vd tinh hinh kinh td vi md bad gdm KTl: Tinh hinh kinh td hign tai, KT2: Tinh hinh kinh te trong 6 thing tdi, KT3: Digu kign kinh doanh hign t^i, KT4: Xu hudng cila digu kign kinh doanh trong 6 thing tdi, KT5: Tinh hinh th^t nghiep hign tai, KT6: Xu hudng that nghigp trong 6 thing tdi
- Nhdm bien vd du kien mua s^m tai s i n Idn bao gdm MS 1: Du dinh mua bit ddng san trong 6 thing tdi, MS2: Du dinh mua xe gin miy trong 6 thing tdi, MS3:
Dy djnh mua xe d td trong 6 thing tdi, MS4: Dy dinh mua dd dign/dien tu trong 6 thing tdi
- Nhdm bidn vd thu nhip cila HGD bao gom TNI:
Mlic thu nhap trung binh hign tgi eiia HGD, TN2: Thu nhip thing niy so vdi cung ky nim ngoai, TN3: Xu hudng thu nhip gia dinh trong 12 thing tdi, TN4; Xu hudng thay ddi cua thu nhip so vdi gii e i trong 12 thing tdi, TN5: Xu hudng vide cua cua c i nhin trong 6 thing tdi
- Nhdm bidn vg vay ng cua HGD: NOI: khoin ng tigu ddng so cung 1^ nim ngoai, N02: Xu hudng khoin no tieu dung trong 6 thing tdi, N03; tmng binh phan trim thu nhip dinh cho tra ng, N04; Muc lai suit vay tigu dung ehip nhgn chi tra
- Nhdm bien ve thdng tin tidp nhin dugc cua HGD:
TTI: Sd lugng kenh tiep cin thdng tin thudng xuygn, TT2: Sd lugng thdng tin chinh su dung trong nhin dinh, TT3: Thdng tin ghi nhin trong vai thing qua
- Bien vg phuong tign thanh toan sii dyng khi tigu ddng Ii TQ: phuong tien thanh toin chinh sii dyng khi tigu dung cua HGD
Trong nghign ciiu niy, phuong phap PCA dugc sii dung vdi cic bien tinh hinh kinh te vi md, mua sim tii sin trong tuong lai, thong tin thu thgp nhim giam bdt sd lugng bidn vi trinh udc lugng sgi nhidu tir viec sij dung qua nhidu bidn cd tuong quan trong md hinh hdi quy. Trong thuc nghigm thi Barnes va Olivei (2013) d i su dyng PCA dg cd thg thu ggn 42 ciu hdi h-ong khio sat Michigan ddi vdi lam phit ky vgng ciia HGD dg phan tich thuin tien hon vi cho ket qua tdt.
Kiem dinh t-test dugc thuc iiign de so sinh hai tri trung binh cua vg miic do lam phit \^ vgng ciia HGD thay doi theo thcri gian nhu the nio. Gii thuyet ciia kiem dinh li Ho: "Khdng cd sy khic nhau vg tri hai trung binh tdng the", tiic la khic biet giua 2 trung binh li bing 0.
39
NGHIEN Cl/U
Kiem dinh nay dupc thuc hign vdi ky vong 6 thing va ky vpng 12 thing theo timg thdi didm khio sat
Dii lieu duoc sii dung trong nghign ciiu niy la du li$u bang (Data Panel) - si; kgt hgp cua dir ligu cheo va dtr lidu thdri gian. Theo phucmg phap hdi quy du Ugu bang, ba md hinh hdi quy phd bien li md hinh hdi quy gdp (Pooled OLS), md hinh hoi quy tac ddng ed dinh (Fbfed effects model - FEM) va hoi quy tac ddng ngiu nhign (Random effects mode! — REM) cd thd duge su dung phin tich c i c nhin td tic ddng den KVLP cua HGD. Kidm dinh F dugc sii dyng nhim giiip dua ra lua chgn giira md hinh Pogled OLS v i FEM, kiem dinh Hausman dugc sii dyng dg dinh gia miic dd phii iigp cua FEM va REM lim eo sd lya chpn md hinh tdt nhat.
4. Ket qua nghien cuu va thao luan
- Kiem dinh su thay ddi eua lam phit ky vong ciia HGD tai TP.HCM:
Vdi ky vgng hong vdng 6 thing va 12 thing tdi dugc do tai 6 thdi didm ciia 3 nim lign tidp cho thay mirc trung binh KVLP ciia HGD tai TP.HCM cd thay doi, t h ^ nhat li d diu nim 2014 vdi muc lam phit ky vong khoing 5% va cao nhit d cudi nim 2012 vdi muc ky vgng khoang tir 5% ddn 9%. Ddng thdi, tai cic thdi diem khio sat dau nim thi HGD thudng cd mirc KVLP tmng binh thap hon so vdi mirc ky vpng d cudi nim. Ky vpng trong vdng 12 thing tdi cd xu hudng bien ddng tmng binh manh hon so vdi Iq' vgng trong 6 tiiang.
Mic dil viy, su khic biet nay li ididng dang ke, khdng cd y nghia thdng kd khi cie gii thuydt HO ddu chua du CO sd bie bd vdi miic y nghia 95%. Nhu vay, cd thd thiiy miic KVLP cila HGDtai TP.HCM trong tiidi gian vua qua duoc giii dn dinh dii thi trudng, Idnh te vi md, lgm phit thye td cd nhidu thay ddl. Viec khdng bien ddng trong lam phit ky vgng la diu hieu cua 1^
vgng tfiyc td cua HGD tai TP.HCM chua thuc su li 1^
vgng hgp ly m i cd thd la ky vgng theo ndp gap thdng tin hoic ky vong thich nghi.
- Nhin td tic dOng ddn KVLP trong 6 thing eua HGD t^i TP.HCM
Bi&
CFl CP2 Oil cr2 CT4 KT MSI NOI
B b a l . B
0 134593 00757M 0 039405 0 079147 0 062451 0 1 J10fi4 0 079726 -0.137935
Licaalkiiam'aUB
0.166029 0 019261 0 022492 0o:t2S10 0.022:11 0 021144 O02186S 0 024387
P - 0000 0,000 0 080 0000 0.005 DDOO 0000 OOOtL,
t i n t A Bi^
NO:
TNI TN:
JK4 TT
rq
Nf til k}-TDU 6 tlUmr Oiiihk -0.099206 -0 101550 0 07999S 0.126766 0 092724 -0 116344 0167591 0J6W29
0 024180 0 023906 0,012442 0 022079 0.01 S566 0.034478 0 021598 0.O3499O
P - 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 0000 OOOD R - i q u a i e d ^ ^ 0 6 3 8 8 , A ^ R - ^ q n u e d = 0.6356. P r o b > F = 0 000. F ( 16.1783) = 197 12
Kdt qua kidm dinh F ddi vdi md hinh nhan td tic ddng ddn KVLP 6 thing chd ket qui p-value Idn hon mirc y nghia 5% (0,8458), do dd, cd chua du co sd dd bae bd gii thuydt HO, tiic li P.OLS phii hop hon md hinh FEM.Thiic hign cac kidm djnh vi dau hieu nhan bidt cho thay chua dil Cd sd kgt luin md hinh cd hign tucmg da egng tuygn (VIF ldn nhat ciia cae bien sd la
1,63 (m 1) va nhd nhat Id 1,25 (ct4)), chua du ca sd ket luin md hinh xiy ra hign tugng tu tuong quan (gii trt thdng kg Durbin-Watson Ii 1.454), kigm dinh Breusch
& Pagan cho thay P-value =0.000 ngn chua the ket luin md hinh cd hign tugng phuong sai thay ddi.Kdt qui md hinh hoi quy dug'c trinh bay trong bang 1-
- Nhan td tac ddng ddn KVLP trong 12 thing ciia HGD tai TP.HCM
Kdt q u i kigm djnh F ddi vdi md hinh nhin td tic ddng ddn KVLP 12 thing cho ket q u i p-value nhd hon miic y nghia 5% (0,00967) nen dil co sd dg chap nhan gii thuygt H1, tiic ia FEM phii hgp hon md hinh Pooled OLS. ICigm djnh Hausman dugc sii dung de so sinh md hinh FEM va REM, vdi kdt q u i p-value nhd hon gii tri 5% (0,0179) tiic l i md hinh hoi quy cac anh hudng cd dinh FEM phti hgp hon md hinh hoi quy c i c inh hudng ngau nhidn REM. Do dd, md hinh FEM dugc sii dung trgng phin Uch niy.
Tuong tu nhu md hinh hdi quy KVLP 6 thing, kdt qui thyc hign c i c kidm djnh va dau hieu nhin bidt chg thi^y ehua dil eo sd kdt luin md hinh cd hien tugng da egng tuydn (VIF ldn nhdt cua cac bien sd li 2,33 (kv6) vi nhd nh^t la 1,01 (dt)). Kidm dinh Wooldridge dupc sii dung de phat hidn liign tugng hjr tuong quan bic mgt giira phin du ciia c i c bien trong md hinh, kdt q u i p-value i i 0,1389 (F=2.201) ldn hon miic y nghia 5% ngn ta cd the chap nhin md hinh khdng xiy ra hidn tugng tu tuong quan b i c mdt. Kidm dinh Waid sii dyng kiem tra md hinh cd bi hien tugng tu tuong quan cho kdt q u i P-value =0.000 (-^2 (300)
= 3895.26) ngn md hinh cd hien tugng phuong sai thay ddl. Bi ed thd cd dugc udc iupng l i tin ciy vi hieu qui thi phuang phip GLS dugc sii dyng trong md hinh nay dd khic phuc hidn tuong phuong sai thay ddi. Md hinh cho th^y kdt q u i nhu trong bing 2.
B i n d 2. Kk q n i Biiu CPI C T l C T I KV6 N O l N 0 3 TNI TN3 TN5
hdi qnv cic s h i n t6 U c HOBK Sat kf vgnx 12 t b i a s Bitbhil^foy
0.092935 0.0935281 O.OSS3503 0.20S0482 -0.107312 -0.0665932 0.038332 0.068325 0.083322
Sal ta thaim 0.023905 0.026811 0 026398 0.0Z3229 0.02SS63 0.027663 0.013017 0.021829 0.025078
P - v t I l t e 0.000 0.000 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.016 0.000 0 002 0 001 Waid d»i2 (10) = 794.76; Piob > dii2 = O.OOOO
4. Ket iuan va kien nghj chinh sach
Tir kdt qui kiem dinh t vdi sy thay ddi ciia lam phit ky vgng cua HGD tai TP.HCM cd thd thay miie KVLP cua ngudi din TP.HCM trong thdi gian vira qua dugc giii dn dinh dCi thi trudng, kinh td vi md, lgm phit thuc td ed nfiidu tliay ddi. Vige khdng bidn ddng trong lam phat ky vgng li diu higu cOa ky vgng thue td cda HGD tai TP.HCM chua thuc su la ky vpng hgp ly ma cd thg la ky vpng theo ndp gdp thdng tin hoic ky vgng tiiich nghi xoay quanh miic l^m phit khoing 5%, 6% ddn 9%
Bong thdi vdi dd, tir kdt qua ciia md hinh hdi quy sd lidu khio sit, chdng tdi nhgn thiy mdt sd van dd I nhu sau:
1 KVLP h-ong 6 thing ldi vi trong 12 thing tdi ciia J HGD tai TP.HCM chiu anh hudng cua nhidu ydu td. Vdi KVLP h-ong 6 thing tdi thi anh hudng thuin chidu mgnh nh^t ddn Iam phit ky vgng trong 6 thing cua cic HGD la thdng tin gfii nhgn trong thdi gian qua (hg sd hdi quy 0.168), thdi quen ve sii dyng phuong tien thanh toin khi tigu diing (0.166), tinh hinh kinh td vi md (0.151) sau dd li dinh gia hidu qua lam wdc cila chinh phll (0.135) vi thu nhap so vdi ciing ky q u i khii (0.127). Trong khi dd, i n h hudng nghjch chidu manh nhit ddn su thay ddi cua lam phit ky vgng trong vdng 6 thing qua den tir khoin np tidu diing so vdi cung ky nam ngoii (-0.134) va tmng binh phdn trim thu nhip danh eho t r i n g (-0.102).
Ddi vdi KVLP h-ong vdng 12 thing tdi thi anh hudng ciia ky vgng 6 thing den ky vgng cua 12 thing tidp theo li rat mgnh, ed y nghia thdng kg cao. Ddng thdi vdi dd la sy thay ddi ciia chi phi sinh hdat so vdi 12 thing hudc cflng inh hudng manh ddn ky vgng 12 thing (hd sd hdi quy ii 0.094). Vi viy, cd thd ndi ky vgng trong thdi didm trudc vi chi phi sinh hoat trpng qua khli cd anh hudng ding kd ddn ky vpng cua ky ddp theo. Didu niy cilng ed eho kdt qui kidm dinh t la KVLP cua HGD tai TP.HCM cd xu hudng la ky vpng thieh nghi chir ehua thg ket lugn li li ky vgng hpp ly.
Kdt qua cung cho thcfy cd tie dpng cua vigc HGD danh gii vg hieu qui lim vigc cila chinh phu, xu hudng thu nhip va vigc Iim trong tuong lai, cic khoin ng tin dyng tieu diing ddn su thay ddi ciia KVLP 12 thing.
Kidn nghi chinh sich
Co quan quin Iy nen thuc hign khio sat thdng tin KVLP cua cic chu the kinh td mpt cae thudng xuygn.
Vigc thu thip sd ligu niy sg giiip ich cho vigc danh gia higu qua chinh sich, sy Ian tmydn thdng tin cung nhu Iim CO sd dg thi;c hidn cae nghidn ciiu vg lgm phat ky vgng phfl hgp vdi cic nghign ciiu trudc. Td chiic thuc hidn khio sat cd thd la NHNN Viet Nam hoic Tong cyc thdng kg dd dim b i o vigc khio sit dupc td chirc chuygn nghigp vi diy dil. Tuy nhign cic tiudng dai hpc, vign nghign cliu trgn dia bin TP.HCM cung cd thg thuc iiign cdng vigc nay tuang tu nhu dgi hgc Michigan d i thyc hidn de gia ting mirc dd khach quan, lan tmydn tic ddng vi khing djnh tidng ndi cfla trudng trong nghidn ciiu chinh sich
Giu dn dinh vg vi md tao de ngn ting cho lam phat duy tri d miic phii hpp va dn dinh ky vpng cfla HGD.
Chinh phfl ngn dim bao miic dp tang trudng cho nen kinh te, bing cich tigp tuc cung ting vdn, cip Un dyng, tang ning su^t lao ddng de kieh thich cung tang lgn d i p ling dupc ciu. Co quan quan ly tai TP.HCM ngn xem xdt gia tang dd md cfla ngn kinh td de dn djnh gia c i nhip khiu va san xuit cdng nghigp.
TP.HCM cd thd nghign ciiu siu chinh sich hgi nhip
kinh td qudc td vd thuong mgi hang hda, thuong mai dich vy nhat la trong cic cam kdt trong timg higp dinh (FTA/ASEAN, ASEAN-!-, FTA song phuong, WTO, TPP...)dg cd the tao ra nhiing CO hgi cho vide thu hiit diu tu nirdc ngoai v i hoat dgng xuat khciu, thiic d^y ting hiTdng kinh td v i tao thdm viec lam.... Song song vdi dd tgi TP.HCM cd thd ngn quan tim phit tridn thi trudng trong nudc vdi viec thuc hign cuOc vin ddng ngudi Viet uu tidn dting hing Vigt. Tich cyc tuydn huyen nham thay doi cich tidu dflng cua dgi bd phin ngudi Vidt v i ting cudng phit trien, sin xu^t da dang hda sin phim, ch^t lugng, m i u m i nhim dap img ydu cau ngay cing cao cila ngudi tidu ddng. Didu niy cflng giflp dn dinh thi trudng, ty gii va can cin thanh tgin...
Song song vdi dd la ning cao higu qua quin ly tlii trudng hing hda cfla chinh quyen TP.HCM. Ket qui nghign ciiu chi rg ringKVLP cfla cie HGD chiu inh hudng manh ciia gia c i trong qui khu. Su inh hudng td Idn eua yeu td Iam phit trong qui khu da hinh thanh ndn KVLP cfla HGD. Vdi lgm phat ego va keo dii se i n h hudng ddn dy doin cua HGD ve lam phat trong tuong lai. Do dd, cd quan quan ly can ning cao hieu qui hon nfla trong quin ly thj hudng hang hda trong nudc, binh dn gia e i hang hda de trinh xiy ra cac hidn tupng tang gii dot bidn giy inh hudng den tam ly cfla HGD lo sp lgm phit.
Co quan quin ly vi cac bp phin tmydn thdng TP.HCM can thdng tin tinh hinh kinh td ddn ngudi dan cin diy du, kip thdi. L^m phat rit nhgy cim vdi cac thdng tin ndn trang thii lgm phit thip thyc tg l i mpt cin bing khdng bdn vi rat de bi p h i vd, trong khi tinh trang lam phit cao cd khuynh hudng lip lai dg hon.
Tgi TP.HCM, cie kdnh thdng tin ngn da dgng, phong phfl nhung co quan quin ly cting nen tien tdi xiy dyng, dinh hudng phit trien cac kenh thdng tin chi'nh thdng, don vi truydn thdng uy tin nhu md hinh eua Dow Jones, Wall Street Joumal, Associated Press...
cfla Hoa Ky dupc nhigu ngudi danh gii Ii khich quan, ehit lupng va can bing quydn Icri.
Cii cich tidn luong hpp ly nhat tgi Viet Nam ndi chung vi TP.HCM ndi rieng.Ca quan quan ly tai TP.HCM can cd lg trinh dieu chinh ting luong mgt cich thin trpng, hgp ly, trinh gay ra bien dpng tim Iy cfla HGDIim ting ky vgng tigu cue. Ngoii ra cin di cflng vdi cic chinh sich phfl hgp khic nhu thay ddi muc thud suat gii tri gia ting cd tic dOng rat manh ddn lam phat thyc td efla HGD thay vi didu chinh ve ting thu nhgp.
Ddi vdi cic khoin vay tidu dflng, eo quan quin ly cin theo ddi, giim sit, kiem tra vigc thda thuin lii suit cfla td chue til chinh vdi khich hang ca nhin, HGD dd hanh hudng hpp nhu mdt sd cdng ty tai ehinh tigu dung cho vay vdi iai suit qui cao trong thdi gian qua.
Thay ddi thdi quen sfl dyng phuong tign thanh toan cfla ngucri dan. TP.HCM ddng vai U^d diu tau kinh te
41
NGHIEN c u u
iESEAFCH
Ciia c i nudc ndn cang cd nhidu thuin Igi dd ap dyng Annual Conference
thanh toan khdng dung tidn mit. Vi viy can Uch cue ^ JQJ^J Legj voon J W 2012 Impact of vin ddng, tuydn tmydn dd thay ddi thdi quen Sli dung Demographic' Changes on Inflation and the hgn mat, hoan thidn eo chd giam sit, hign dai hoi Macroeconomy, IMF Working Paper
cdng nghe thanh toin khdng dflng tidn mit. Xiy dyng mdt hd thdng thanh toin hign dai cho cic dich vy cdng egng va sau dd l i cic dich vy, giao dich hing hda cfla cic chu thd kinh td l i muc tieu dai hgn cin hudng ddn cho mdt thinh phd vin minh, hien dgi.
Song song vdi dd can d i m bao dfl Iupng tien trong luu thdng, giim ttiieu cic trudng hpp sir dung "hing hda"
thay the cho tien menh gii nhd trong luu thdng.
Tai lieu tham khao
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Unconventional Fisccd Policy, Inflation Expectations, and Consumption Expenditure, University of Ciiicago Booth School of Business
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13. Lucas. R. (1972). Expectations and the Neutrality of Money. Joumal of Economic Theory
14. Millet. F.C., (2006), Inflation Expectations, the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy, NERA Economic Consulting
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29, No. 3 (Jul., 1961), pp. 315-335
16. Nguygn Thi Thu Hing, Nguydn Dire Thinh, 2011, Ngudn gdc lam phit d Viet Nam giai doan 2000- 2010: phit hidn mdi tir nhting bing chiing mdi, Bai Nghidn cim NC-22, Tmng tam Nghidn ciiu Kinh td va Chinh sich Tnrdng Dgi hpc Kinh td, Dai hgc Qudc gia Ha NOi.
17. Oral. E. (2013). Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey. Bank for Intemational Settlements, IFC Working Papers No 10
18. Ranyard R., Del Missier F., Bonini N., Duxbury D., Summers B., 2008, Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review cmd conceptual framework; Joumal of Economic Psychology Volume 29, Issue 4, August 2008, Pages 378—400
19. Trehan. B. (2010), Survey Measures of Expected Inflation and the Inflation Process, federal reserve bank of san francisco
20. Oy ban Kinh td efla Qudc hdi (2012), Lgm phit myc tieu vi ham y ddi vdi khudn khd chinh sach tign tg d Vigt Nam, Nha xuat bin Tri Thue
21. Vuong Thi Thao Binh, 2009, Tidp can v i phin tich ddng thii gii c i - lam phit cua Wet Nam trong thdi ky ddi mdi bing mdt sd md hinh toin kinh te, Dai hpc Kinh te Qudc din