Tap chi Khoa hqc 2012-2/b 141-150 Tru&ng Dai hoc Cdn Tha
MO PHONG XAM NHAP MAN DONG BANG SONG CUU LONG DirOl TAC DONG MlTC N I T O C B I E N DANG
VA Sir SUY GIAM Ll/U LlTONG TU" THlTOfNG NGUON
Trdn Quoc Dgt, Nguyen Hieu Trun^ vd Kanchit Likitdecharote' ABSTRACT
Salinity intrusion is one ofthe major problems that ihe Mekong Delta is facing, ll would increase in the future due to sea level rise and upstream flow decline In this study, salinity intrusion in Mekong Delta was simulated by using MIKE 11 under climate change and upstream flow reduction scenarios. The model constructed by using topographical in 1998 and 2005. The simulation result for theyear 1998 was chosen as baseline scenario to measure any changes in salinity intrusion in the year 2020 and 2030. Four modeling scenarios were set up basing on their results from the SUES B2 scenario. CC-NoAgri (No Change in Agiicultural) scenario and CC-Agri (Change in Agricultural) scenario. The two first scenarios and the rest were respectively in the year 2020 and 2030. In the first and second scenario, sea level was projected to rise up to 14cm while upstream discharge rate of Mekong River was assumed to decrease 11% for the first scenario and 22% for the second one. In the third and the forth scenario, sea level increased 20cm but upstream discharge rate declined 15% in the third scenario and fell tn'ice as much in the forth scenario. The result obtained, namely 2.5g/l saline likely shifted 14km to upstream in mam rivers in comparison to serious salinity intrusion time in 1998. Also, saline intrusion area was expanded most of saline intrusion projects in Mekong Delta
Keywords: Agricultural, Sea level, Mekong Delta, Salinity intrusion, Upstream flow Title: Modeling the influence of river discharge and sea level rise on salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta
TOM TAT
Xdm nhdp mdn Id mgt trong nhiing vdn de ldn a dong bdng song Ciru Long vd no co xu hudng trdm trgng han trong tuang lai do muc nudc bien ddng vd luu lugng tir thugng ngudn suy gidm. Trong nghiin cuu ndy. xdm nhdp man a dong bdng song Cuu Long dugc mo phong cho nhirng kich bdn khdc nhau cua muc nudc bien ddng vd luu lugng ihugng nguon gidm bdng mo hinh MIKEll. Mo hinh dugc xdy dung dua tren cd sd dir lieu ciia hai ndm 1998 vd 2005. Kit qud mo phong xdm nhgp man ndm 1998 dugc chgn kjch goc so sdnh vdi bdn kich bdn xdm nhdp man vdo cdc nam 2020 vd 2030 Bdn kich bdn ndy dugrc xdy dung dua tren kich bdn CUES B2. kich bdn tdng diin tich nong nghiip vd kich bdn dien tich nong nghiep khong doi Hai kich ban ddu Id khi muc nudc bien ddng 14 cm vd luu luang thucmg nguon gidm 11% vd 22%. Kich bdn so ba vd bon Id khi muc nudc biin ddng 20cm vd liru lugmg thuang ngudn gidm 15%. Kil qud mo phong cho thdy rdng do man 2.5g/l xdm nhgp 14km sdu han kich ban goc nam 1998. Ngodi ra xdm nhdp mdn citng tdc dong hdu hit cdc du dn ngdn man d dong bdng song Cuu Long
Tir khoa: Nong nghiep, mirc nudc bien dang, dong bdng song Ciru Long, xdm nhap mgn, luru lirgng thugng ngudn
' Khoa Cong Ngh?. Truong D^i hoc Can Tho
^ Khoa Moi Tnrong vh Tai Ngu>en Thien Nhien. Tnrong Dai hoc Can Tho
^ BO mon Tai Ngu>en Niroc. Khoa Cong Nghe. Truong Dai Hoc Chulalongkom, Thai Lan
Tap chi Khoa hpc 2012:21b 141-150 Truang Dai hpc Cdn Tha
1 GlOfI THIEU
Song Mekong bit nguon tir cao nguyen Tiy Tang chay qua Myamar. Lao, Thai Lan, Campuchia va chia lam hai nhinh khi do vao Viet Nam (Sdng Tien va Sdng Hau). Ha luu sdng Mekong rdng 49.502km- trong dd ddng bing sdng Cuu Long (DBSCL) chiem phan Idn vdi 39.000km- vdi hon 18 trieu ngudi sinh sdng, DBSCL cung cap hem 50% lucng thuc va hmi 60% thuy sin cho ca nudc, Tu xa xua ddi sdng nhan din ddng bang sdng Cuu Long phu thudc vio che dp ddng chay cua hai con sdng niy. Nhin chung tii nguyen nudc d ddng bang sdng Ciiu Long ddi dao nhung phin bd khdng deu theo mua, v i o mua khd luu lugng binh quan khoing 2.500m7s cd nhung thdi diSm diap ban I,500m^/s (Kite, 2001). Ngoai ra ddng bang song Cuu Long chiu anh hudng manb me ciia thuy tridu bin nhat trieu khdng deu tir Bien Ddng vdi bien do tii 3-3.5m v i nhat trieu khdng diu vdi bien dp tir 0.8-1.2m tir Bi6n Tiy (MRC, 2005; Tuan et al., 2007). Thiiy triiu inh hudng d6ng bing sdng Cuu Long theo theo ba hudng (bien Ddng, Bien Tiy v i vimg giap bien Ddng v i Tay) thdng qua he thdng sdng rach chang chit cua ddng bing. Vao mua khd xam nhap man la mpt vin de nan giai d ddng bing sdng Ciiu Long (Hung, et al, 2001; Tuan el al, 2007).
Trong nhiing thap nien gan day, cic nudc thuang ngudn sdng Mekong cd ke hogch t3ng cudng su dung ngudn nudc cho san xuat nong nghiep cung nhu cho thuy dien va cac boat ddng kinh te khic. Ket qui tit yeu din tdi su suy giim luu lupng nudc tir thupng ngudn (Hoanh et al., 2003) v i thieu nude vio mtia khd tii thing tu den thang nam hang nam (Sunada, K., 2009). Ngoai ra dudi tac ddng cua biln ddi khi h^iu myc nudc bien cang ngay cing ding cao (IPCC, 2007). Hien t&i cung nhu trong tuong lai ddng bang sdng Ciiu Long duong diu sy xim nhgp man nghiem trong hon vao miia khd (Sam, 2006; Tuan et al., 2007; Nhan et aL, 2007).
Khang, et al. (2008) ket hpp md hinh toin va GIS md phdng v i dy doan xim nhip man cho ddng bang sdng Ciiu Long tir thing 12 din thing 6 vdi hai kich ban cho nam 2030 va 2090 trong dieu kien bien ddi khi hiu v i myc nudc bien dang. Kich ban mdt khi myc nudc bi^n dang -l-20cm va luu lupng thupng ngudn giam -15%, kich ban hai khi myc nudc bien dang +45cm v i luu luong thuang ngudn giam -29%, Ket qua nghien cuu chi ra rang trong tuong lai khoing 0.6 trieu ha liia bi de dpa bdi xim nhap man. Trong nghien ciiu nay md hinh duac xiy dyng dya vao d& lieu tir nim 1998 trd v l trudc nen chua md phdng chi'nh xac dieu kien thiiy lyc ddng bang. Die biet tu nam 1999 tdi nim 2007, ddng bing sdng Cuu Long dupe bao ve bdi cic dy an xam nhip man, sau khi cac dy i n hoin thinh dilu ki$n thuy lyc thuy van ciia dong bing hoin toin thay doi (Sam, 2006). Han the n&a luu lupng thupng ngudn dupe dy bao giam tu 15% den 3 3 % trong giai doan tir nam 2010 den 2039 (Hoanh, etal., 2003). Trong nghien ciiu nay, xim nhip man dddng bang sdng Ciiu Long duac md phdng bing md hinh M I K E l l vdi cac kich ban nudc bien dang v i sy suy giam luu luong thupng ngudn. Ca sd dii lieu trong md hinh duac cap nhip bao gdm toin bd cac cdng trinh ngan man cua ddng bing dupe thu thap tir Vien Khoa Hoc Thuy Lgi Miln Nam (SIWRR), Uy Ban Song Mekong (MRC) v i Ban Quan Ly Dy An Thiiy Lgi 10 (PMUIO). Module thiiy lyc v i Module tai khulch tin trong MIKEll dugc iing dung cho viec md phdng xim nhap man trong md hinh ni)'.
Tap chi Khoa hoc 2012:21b 141-150 Truang Dgi bpc Can Thcr
> Cdng trinh ngan m ^
Hinh 1: H^tbSng cong trinh ngan m | n tnmc nim 1998 (Ngu&n: SIWRR, 2006)
* Cong trinh ngan m i n
Hinh 2: H | thong cong trinb ngan man sau nam 200S (Nguon: SIWRR, 2006) 2 PHlTONG PHAP
2.1 Mo hinh
MIKEl 1 la md hinh thuy dpng lyc hgc mdt chieu cho md phdng ddng chay khdng deu tren kenh, sdng. MIKE 11 dupe Vien thuy lyc Dan Mach phat trien trong dd module thuy lyc la module chinh (DHI, 2007). Module thiiy lyc (HD) diing tinh ddng chiy. Module tai khuech tan (AD) dung tinh lan truyin ch3t (man,...). D l tinh ddng chay trong kenh sdng, md hinh M I K E l l sii dung phuang trinh St.Venant (phuang trinh bao toin ddng lirgng va bao toan chat) mdt chieu va ap dung sa dd sai phin 6 diem xen ke Q,H ciia Abbott, and lonescu, (1976)
dt & C'AR (2)
Module AD dira tren phirong trinh bao toan chat hoa tan
Tap chi Khoa hoc 2012:21b 141-150 Trudng Dgi hpc Cdn Tba
dt ex f^\ dx J -AKC-l-C,q (3)
Trong dd:
Q = luu lugng (mVs); A = mat cit udt (m"); q = ddng gia nhap ddng chiy (m^/s);
X = khoing each dgc ddng chay (m); t = thdi gian (s); C ^ ndng dp chit hda tan (g/l); R = ban kinh thuy lyc (m); h = myc nudc so vdi dp cao chuan (m);
g = gia toe trpng tnrdng (m'/s); D = he sd khuech tan; C3 = ndng dp ddng gia nhap (g/l).
2.2 Thanh lap md hinh
Trong nghien ciiu nay, hai module trong MIKEl 1 dugc su dung de md phdn^ man (HD va AD). Trong module HD, hai nhdm sd lieu dau vao bao gdm: (i) Sd lieu theo khdng gian gdm he thdng kenh sdng va mat cat ngang ciia ehung, he thdng cdng trinh ngan man (ii) sd lieu theo thdi gian gom so lieu myc nudc v i luu Iugng theo thdi gian, dieu kien ban diu tai cac bien tinh toin. Bien trong md hinh gdm 6 bien luu lupng tren thupng luu (hai trong sd do nim tren ddng chinh sdng Mekong) va 82 bien myc nudc d Bien Ddng va Bien Tay. Budc thdi gian tinh toan trong md hinh la At?^2 phiit. Khoang each tdi da giir cac diem tinh toin la Ax=750m. Md hinh cdn bao gdm toan bp he thdng cdng trinh ngan man dugc hoan thien trudc tu nam 2005.
2.3 Hieu chinh va Idem dinh mo hinh
Mo hinh dupe hieu chinh qua 2 budc vdi sd lieu thuy van v i ndng dp man nam 1998 bang each thay doi cic thdng sd trong mo hinh (he sd nhim Manning trong module HD va he sd khulch tin trong module AD) cho din khi kit qui md hinh phil hpp vdi ket qua thye do. Sau dd md hinh dugc kiem dinh bang bd co sd dir lieu nam 2005.
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Hinh 3 ; Vi tri cac tr^tn do man va thiiy van d u ^ c sir dung trong mo hinh Budc thii nhit, hieu chinh mo hinh HD thong qua viec thay doi he nham Manning trong Idioang 0.03-0.018. Hinh 4a va 5a the hien kSt qua dai dien cho hai tram Cao Lanh (CL) va Dai Ngai (DN). Ket qua chi ra rjng k8t qua mo hinh phu hcrp voi
Tap chi Khoa hpc 2012:21b 141-150 Truang Dgi hpc Cdn Tha
thyc do c i ve tri sd lin xu the. Kiem dinh md hinh vdi ca sd du lieu nam 2005, kit qua the hien trong hinh 4b v i 5b.
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10 hitih = ihuc do R=0 96
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1! s j f n iHinh 4: So sinh ket qua thirc Ao va mo hinh t^i tr^m Cao Lanh n i m 1998 va nam 2005
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hinh = thuc do. R=0 98
I.4.20D5 6-4-2005
Hinh 5: So sdnh k§t qua thirc do va mo hinh tai tram D^i Ngai nam 1998 v^ nam 2005 Tilp theo, hieu chinh md hinh AD thdng qua viec thay ddi he tai khuech tin trong khoang 700-300 cho sdng chinh va tir 125-50 cho cic sdng khic. Hinh 6 v i 7 the hien ket qui dai dien cho hai tram Cao Lanh va Dai Ngai. Kiem dinh md hinh vdi ca sd dii lieu nim 2005, kit qui the hien trong hinh 6 va 7. Hieu chinh v i Idem dinh md hinh lan truyin man phirc tap han so vdi md hinh thuy lyc vi man chiu
Tgp chi Khoa hpc 2012:21b 141-150 Trudng Dgi hpc Cdn Tha
anh hudng cua nhilu yeu td nhu gid miia (md hinh khdng xet den), nhu cau diing nudc. qui Iuat van hanh cac cdng trinh ngan man,... Hon nOa ket qui cua module AD rat nhay vdi he sd tai khuech tan. Ngoai ra, he thdng sdng kenh rach ddng bang sdng Ciiu Long rit phiic tap khdng the xac dinh gii tri ciia he sd khuech tin chinh xac cho timg doan sdng cu the. Hon the niia, thieu sd lieu cho hieu chinh v i kiem dinh md hinh xam nhap man. Dac biet trong nim 1998 sd lieu m?n khdng dugc thu thap lien tuc. Mac du vay so sinh tu kit qui md hinh va thyc do cho thiy ket qui md hinh phii hpp vdi thyc do ca ve tri sd lin xu the, da\' chinh la co sd eho viec dy bio man trong tuong lai.
; mS hinh c tlnrc dOr R=D 82"
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' ; I; 11 _ mo hinh = thifc iio, I / j^ 1^=0 87
Hinh 6: So sanh ket qua thyc do vk mo hinh t^i tr?m Dai Ngai va My Tho nam 1998 o h nh c thirc do R=0 8j
- m6 hinh „ ihirc do, R=0 84 -i
Hinh 7; So sanh ket qua thifc do va mo hinh tai traini My Tho nam 2005 2.4 Cac kich b i n md phdng
2 4 1 Kich bdn goc
Trong nghien ciiu niy xim nhip man nam 1998 dupe chpn Iam kich bin xam nhip man goc vi man nam 1998 xam nhap sau nhit frong vai thap nien frd lai diy (Sam,
Tgp chi Khoa hpc 2012:21b 141-150 Truang Dgi hpc Cdn Tha
2006). Hon niia nam 1998 cd du sd lieu cho dieu kien bien cho md phdng x i m nhip man.
2.4.2 Phong dodn muc nudc bien ddng vd luang luu lucmg miia kiet thir^mg nguon gidm
Nijissen et ai, (2002) phan tich do nhay cac yeu td thuy van va biln ddi khi hiu tren cac con song ldn fren thi gidi trong giai doan 2025-2045. Nghien ciiu chi ra rang luu lugng sdng Mekong se ting frong mua mua va giam frong miia khd.
Hoanh et al. (2003) danh gia miic dp thay ddi ciia luu lugng sdng Mekong iing vdi cic kich bin bien ddi khi hau (IPPC, 2007) v i khi ning md rdng dien tich ndng nghiep fren luu vyc sdng Mekong. K i t qui nghien ciiu cho thiy rang iing vdi kich ban bien ddi khi hau B2 luu Iugng mua kiet fren sdng Mekong cd thi giam tir 15%-33% frong giai doan 2010-2039 so vdi giai doan 1961-1990 tuy miic do thay ddi nhu ciu dimg nudc cho cic boat ddng cua con ngudi tren luu vyc sdng Mekong.
Theo bao cao lin thu 4 eua Uy Ban Lien Chinh Phu V l Biln Ddi Khi Hau (IPCC, 2007), den giiia 2090s, myc nudc bien se ting Ien 43cm iing vdi kich bin bien ddi khi hiu B2, trung binh myc nudc bien dang 5.6rmn/nam so vdi myc nudc bien ciia 1990s. Cd nghia la myc nudc bien cd the ding len khoang 20cm vao nam 2030 so vdi giai doan 1980-1999.
Trong nghidn ciiu nay, bdn kich bin myc nudc bien dang v i suy giim luu lupng vao miia kiet ciia sdng Mekong dugc thinh lip nhu bang 1 vdi muc dich la udc doin miic do xim nhap man frong tuang lai khi cac yeu td bat Igi cho xim nhip man xay ra.
Bang 1: Tong h9p cac kjch ban
Mirc nirdc biSn Tv Ie Imi lutmg thumig , , ^ , Kich ban ' . x " t Nam pfaong doan
dang nguon giam so vm kich ban goc
Kich ban g6c 1998 11% 2020
22% 2020 15% 2030 30% 2030 3 K E T QUA THAO LUAN
3.1 Khoang each xam nhap man ldn nhat tren cac dong chinh song Mekong Trong nghien cuu niy gia frj dp man 2.5g/l dugc chpn bang gja tri gidi ban cd the tic dpng xiu den nang suit ciy frdng, lam giam 25% nang suit liia (Grattan et al.^
2002). Chilu sau xim nhap man fren cic ddng chinh song Tiln va Hau (Hinh 8) chi ra ring frong tuang Iai (nam 2030) nlu muc nudc bien ding cao 20cm va luu Iugng mua kiet giam 22%. x i m nhip man fren sdng chinh cua ddng bang sdng CiJu Long siu hon 14km so vdi kich bin gdc va dien tich xam nhap man md rdng ra h i u het cic vimg dugc ngpt hda thupc cac dy i n ngin man lihu hinh 10.
1 2 3 4
14 cm 14 cm 20 cm 20 cm
Tgp cbi Khoa hpc 2012:21b 141-150 Tntang Dgt hgc Cdn Tha
Kich ban goc Each ban 1 K4chban2 Kichbrni? ICicliban4 Hinh 8: Chilu sau xam nhap man (2,5g/l) tren cac song chinh 3.2 Dien tich s a m nhap man
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Hinh 9: Dien tich xam nh^p man cho cac kich ban. (a) k|ch ban goc (b) kich ban so 1 Ket qua xim nhip man d kich bin gdc cho ta thSy ring trong nam 1998, man inh hudng hiu het bin dao Ca Mau, tinh Tra Vinh, mdt phin tinh VTnh Long v i tinh Ben Tre. Dien tich xam nhap man d cac kich ban sd 1 va 2 giam di mac du d cic kich ban nay myc nudc bien tang len va luu lupng miia khd giim, dieu nay cd the giai thich do tir nam 1999 he thdng cdng trinh ngan man tir Bien Ddng va Bien Tiy da dugc thyc hien de ngan man cho 534.860 ha (Hinh lOf), bao gdm cac dy an Nam Ming Thit, Quan Ld Phung Hiep, 6 Mdn-Xa No (World Bank, 2008). Han thi nura. ket qui d cac kich bin sd 3 v i 4 chi ra rang ngay ca khi tat ca he thdng cong trinh ngan man hien thdi van hinh dung nhu thiet ke man van xam nhap sau vao ndi ddng \ a inh hudng den hiu het cic vimg dugc bao ve bdi dy an xam nhap man nhu hinh lOd. lOe, lOf.
4 KET LUAN
Xam nh?p man cua ddng bing sdng Cuu Long dugc dy doin dya fren bdn kich ban dupe hinh thanh tir gii frj myc nudc bien ding theo kich bin bien ddi khi hau B2 va luu Iugng thugng ngudn mua kiet suy giim theo cic kich bin su dung nudc tir thugng ngudn. Ket qui cac kich bin cho ta thay biic franh toan cinh ve xam nhip man d DBSCL vao miia kho cd the xiy ra frong tuong Iai. Dac biet d 2 kjch ban cuoi cho thay rang, man co thi xam nhap vao npi ddng d hiu hit cic dien tich dupe bao ve bdi cac dy an ngin man. Tuy nhien, trong nghien ciiu nay, md hinh
Tgp chi Khoa hpc 2012:21b 141-150 Truang Dgi hpc Can Tha
xam nhip man chua bao gdm het tat ca cac \'eu td tic ddng din xam nhip man d DBSCL frong hien tai ciing nhu trong tucmg lai nhu gid miia, nhu ciu dung nudc cho tha\- ddi fren luu vyc sdng Mekong, thdi gian v i cudna dp ciia Iii
Hinb 10: Dien tich xam n h a p m i n cho cac k|cb ban va di^n ticb ngpt boa cua cac du- an xara n h a p man. (c) kich ban sd 2. (d) kich ban s l 3, (e) k|ch ban so 4. (f) dien ticb ngot boa
cua cac du* an xam n h i p man a DBSCL
Ket qua cua nghien ciiu niy huu ich cho quy hoach tai nguyen nudc d DBSCL trong tucmg lai frong dieu kien myc nudc bien ding va cic nudc thugng ngudn sdng Mekong tang cudng sii dung ngudn nudc ciia sdng Mekong.
Che dp thu\' lyc thii\ van cua DBSCL rat phiic tap \ i vay md hinh chua the cho mdt ket qui chinh xic nhit \ e xim nhip man cho DBSCL. Die biet frong dieu kien bien ddi khi h i u \"i thay ddi d thugng ngudn sdng Mekong. Md hinh cin dugc hieu chinh \ d i tit ca cic \eu td anh hudng den xim nhap man ciia \ img va nhieu kich b i n han nira nen dime thinh lap de cd cai nhin toin dien han v e vin de xam nhap man cua khu \'yc DBSCL.
TAI LIEU TH.\M KHAO
Abbott, M B. and lonescu, F. 1967. On the numnical computation of nearly horizontal flows. Journal of Hydraul Res. 5:97-117.
DHI. 2007. A Modelling System for River and Chanels-Mike 11 User Manual.
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Tgp chi Khoa hpc 2012:21b 141-150 TruangDgi bpc Cdn Tha
Hung, N. N., Thinh, L. V., and Tmng, N. H. 2001. Macro-level perspective on water use in the dry season in Mekong Delta, Can Tho University.
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"The Physical Science Basis"
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Kite, G. 2001. Modelling the Mekong: hydrologieal simulation for environmental impact studies. Joumal ofHydrology, 253: 1-13.
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