xa hpi hpc so 1 (117), 2012 17
XAY DlJNG CHI SO TONG HO?
DO LLTCiNG
C H A T L U O N GDAN SO
PHAM DAI DONG*
Cho den nay, da ed nhieu nghien ciiu dugc thye hien tren the gidi va d Viet Nam nhdm xay dyng he thdng chi tieu ddnh gid chat lugng dan sd (CLDS). Phan ldm cdc nghien ciiu ndy deu de cap den mdt he thdng chi tieu kha phong phii gdm cae ehi tieu rieng re, lien quan den cdc mat thi chit, tri tu? vd tinh than eua eon ngudi, cdc ehi tieu nhan khau hgc vd mdt sd chi tieu tdng hgp. He thdng ehi tieu ndy ciing da duge the hien khd diy dil yong dl dn "Ndng cao CLDS Viet Nam giai doan 2007-2020" cua Tdng cyc DS- KHHGD. Day la he thdng chi tieu khd chi tiet, phong phii, theo sdt khdi niem ve CLDS dang dugc sir dyng rdng rdi hien nay. Nhd dd, khi dp dyng tinh todn eho mdt dia phuang ngudi ta cd the ddnh gid dugc nhimg diem manh, yeu ve CLDS eiia dia phuong dd.
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Tuy nhien, do cimg liic sii dyng nhieu ehi tieu nen khd cd the so sdnh CLDS giira cac dia phuang, vd do vay, ciing khdng the ddnh gid dugc mdt cdeh tdng quan xem timg dia
f X
phuang da dat dugc miic do ndo hay dang diing d vi tri ndo trong bdng xep hang ve CLDS.
Trong de tdi khoa hgc cap nha nudc 2000-98-013, cdc tdc gid da khuyen nghi sir dyng ehi sd PQI de ddnh gid CLDS cdc viing, cdc dia phuang cua nudc ta. Theo dd, PQI xdc dinh miic do dat dugc ve CLDS eiia dia phuang dugc nghien ciiu. Tuy nhien, viec lya chgn chi tieu dai dien cho cdc ehi sd thdnh phan, cho den nay cd the khdng cdn phu hgp.
^ X / f f f .
Chdhg ban nhu trong dieu kien cau tnic dan sd tre d nudc ta cudi the ky trude thi viec gidm ty le tre em cd ve nhu Id mdt gidi phdp quan trgng de nang cao CLDS. Tuy nhien, quan dilm cho ring dan sd cdng gid chat lugng cdng cao Id khd cd siic thuyet phye. Hodc
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dimg "ty le lao ddng chinh khdng phdi nghi viec vi dm dau" de bieu thi the lyc ciia cdng
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ddng dan cu cung khd thu dugc sd lieu chinh xdc, ngay cd khi td chiic dieu tra thye te...
Vi vay, viec xay dyng mdt chi so tdng hgp chung de ldm can cii danh gia CLDS cua
M> ^ f \ f
mdi dia phuong vd so sdnh giira cdc don vi trong dieu kien hien nay la rat can thiet. Viec xay dyng chi sd nay cin qudn triet cdc quan diem co bdn Id:.
- Phdn dnh duge day dii cdc ddc trung ve the chat, tri tue, tinh than vd co cau eua toan bd ddn sd theo quan dilm cua Dang ta vl CLDS, thi hien trong Nghi quyet 47- NQ/TW.
Phil hgp vdi dilu kien cy the hien nay cua dat nudc.
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Cd kha ndng chi rd miic do dat dugc ve CLDS dugc nghien ciiu.
- Cdc chi bao phdi cd sd lieu thdng ke day du, dang tin cay va dl tim.
' PGS. TS, Dgi hoc Kinh tiquoc ddn
- Lya chgn nhiing chi bdo cot Idi nhat, cd tam khdi qudt vd mang tinh dai dien cao, giup cho viec ddnh gid don gian, thuan tien.
Theo quan dilm tren, chi sd tdng hgp do ludng CLDS {IPQ) dugc xay dyng gdm 4 chi so thdnh phin. Dd la: (i) Chi so vl "Thi lyc"; (ii) Chi so vl "Tri lyc"; (iii) Chi sd vl
"Tinh than'' va (iv) Chi so vl "Co ciu" Moi chi so thdnh phan, tuy theo ddc trung rieng biet
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vd dieu kien cy the ciia so lieu lai dugc tinh bang mgt cdeh rieng tren co sd tong hgp cdc yeu td edu thanh ciia nd. Tuy nhien, de nang eao CLDS, cdc yeu to cau thdnh trong timg chi sd
X / X »
thanh phan va ed 4 chi sd thanh phdn cua IPQ phdi ciing dugc cd co hgi phdt trien ngang nhau.
Chdng han, mdt tinh cd ngudn tai nguyen, khodng sdn rat phong phu, thu nhdp binh qudn diu ngudi cao, ty le dan sd biet chii' vd ty le lao dgng dugc dao tao deu vao loai eao nhat cd nudc, nhung ddng thdi ty le dan sd nghi?n hiit, nhiem HIV/AIDS ciing vao loai cao nhat thi khdng the ed CLDS eao, thdm chi cd the cdn thap hon mgt tinh khde md cdc chi sd tren chi d mire
' I X ' X X
trung binh. De the hien dieu nay, cdc chi sd thanh phan vd bdn than IRQ can phdi dugc tinh
X r t^ r f •*
bang cdng thire sd trung binh nhan. Mdi chi sd s6 nhan gid trj tir 0 den 1. Cdng gdn 1 thi CLDS thude ITnh vyc nghien ciiu cdng cao vd nguge lai, cdng ve gan 0, CLDS cang thap.
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Phuong phdp xdc dinh cdc chi sd thdnh phdn cy the nhu sau:
Chi so vi "tinh than " (Ky hieu 10
Chi sd "Tinh than" nhdm ddnh gid khia canh "tinh thin" cua cdng ddng dan cu theo quan niem ve CLDS. Tinh thin gdm cdc ylu to vl y thiic vd tinh ndng ddng xa hdi thi hien qua miic do tiep can va tham gia cac boat ddng xa hdi, vdn hod, thdng tin, vui choi, giai tri ... cua ngudi dan. Chi sd ndy dugc bilu hien cy thi bing cdc chi bdo:
- Ty le hd gia dinh dgt tieu chudn gia dinh vdn hod (In)
Xdy dyng gia dinh vdn hda khdng nhimg phdn dnh nep song vdn hda Idnh manh ciia
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cd cdng ddng, trat ty an todn xa hdi, md cdn phan dnh sy dodn ket, nd lyc ciia ed cdng ddng trong xdy dyng vd phat triln kinh tl-xa hgi. Vi vay, nd phdn dnh y thiic xd hgi rdng ldm, bao triim va khd todn dien.
- Ty / | hd khdng xdy ra tinh trgng bgo lue gia dinh (Ijz) vd Ty /f ddn sd khdng phgm phdp hodc khdng tham du vdo cdc t$ ngn xd hdi (I/3) ciing la hai chi tieu phan dnh ddc
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tnmg ve tinh than ciia toan bg dan so.
Ty le tre em khdng bi roi nhieu tdm tri (I 14) phan dnh ddc trung vl tinh thin cua tre em.
Chi tieu nay cdng Idn, ddi sdng tinh thin ciia tre em ndi rieng, cua toan dan ndi chung cang cao.
Tir dd, chi so vl tinh than (Ii) dugc tinh nhu sau:
h ~ V ^ l ^ •'12 •^ M3 ^ ^14
Chi so ve "tri Iuc" (Ky hifu I2) / i
Chi so v l "tri lyc" nhdm danh gia trinh dg dan tri, ndng lyc van hanh, khd nang tilp can khoa hgc, cdng nghe cua cgng dong, Chiing dugc ddnh gia thdng qua trinh do hgc vin cua ngudi dan, trinh do chuyen mdn ky thuat ciia ngudi lao ddng... Vi vay, chi so v l tri
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lyc bao gdm cac chi tieu chu yeu sau:
Phgm Dgi Dong 19
-Tyle di hoc d cdc cdp gido due (hi): Chi tieu nay dugc tinh chung cho cdc cap hgc tir tieu hgc den cao ddng/dai hgc bdng cdeh lay tdng sd hgc sinh dang theo hgc d cdc cap hoc chia cho tdng dan sd tir 6 den 24 tudi. Chi tieu nay cang cao, khdng nhiing phdn dnh trinh do phdt trien tdt ciia he thdng gido due, ma cdn ddnh gid miic do tilp can vdi dich vu gido dye eiia nhdm tre em trong tudi den trudng cang ldm. Day Id dilu kien quylt dinh trinh d() dan tri cua cdng ddng.
- Ty le biet doc, biet viet cua ddn sd tir 15 tudi trd len (I22): Chi tieu nay phdn dnh
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trye tiep trinh do dan tri cua cdng ddng. Ddi vdi cdc nudc dang phdt trien, ndng eao trinh do dan tri Id yeu cdu sdng cdn ciia sy phdt trien.
- Ty le ddn sd tir 15 tudi trd len cd trinh do chuyen mdn ky thudt tir sa cdp trd len (hi)'- Chi tieu nay phdn dnh ndng lyc van hdnh, khd ndng tiep can khoa hgc, cdng nghe ciia
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cdng ddng. Dat nude cdng phdt trien, CLDS cang cao thi ty 1^ dan sd cd trinh do chuyen mdn
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ky thuat ciing cdng phdi cao de ddp ling nhu edu phdt trien eiia todn bd nen kinh te qudc dan.
Vi vdy, trong tien trinh phdt trien ciia dat nudc, chi tieu nay cdng ngdy cdng ddng vai trd quan trgng ban trong viec do ludng CLDS. Chi sd ve tri lye (I2) dugc tinh nhu sau:
Trong dieu kien hien nay: I^ - ijlji x 2/32 x 123
* Khi dat nudc da la nudc cdng nghiep hien dai: /^ = ^y/j, x 1^2 x 2/23 ChisS vi "thi Iuc" (Ky hieu I3)
' X 7 X t r X
Chi sd ve "The lyc" nham ddnh gid tinh trang the chat, siic khde, sire ben cua con
X 7 / x x ^ ^ / x
ngudi trong cdng ddng. The chat gdm nhieu yeu td khde nhau trong dd cd cdc sd do ve
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chieu cao, can ndng, siic manh, tdc do, siic ben, benh tat, tudi thg, cdc yeu td gidng ndi, gen di truyin... Trong dieu kien hien nay cua nudc ta, cdc chi tieu dimg de ddnh gid chi sd ve the lyc cd the Id:
- Tudi tho binh qudn (ky hieu hi) la chi tieu phdn dnh day dii nhat tinh trang the lye
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cua tat cd cdc do tudi trong tdng the dan cu (bao hdm cd miic chet ciia tre em dudi 1 tudi).
^ ^ X 7 7 7 f
De tdng hgp thdnh mdt chi tieu chung, can chuyen ddi tudi thg binh qudn thye te cua cdng ddng (eo) ra mdt sd tuong ddi cd gid tri ndm trong khodng tir 0 den 1. Theo cdeh tinh ehi tieu tudi thg trong Chi sd phdt trien con ngudi cua Lien Hgp Qudc, chiing tdi ciing de nghi tinh chi tieu nay theo cdng thire sau:
J _ ^0 ~ ^O(min)
^31 ~ _
^O(max) ^O(min)
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Trong dd: eo(max) la tudi thg binh qudn tdi da. Theo Lien Hgp Qudc, gid tri nay hien nay dugc xdc dinh la>85.
eo(niin) Id. tuoi thg binh quan tdi thieu. Theo Lien Hgp Qudc, gid tri nay hien nay dugc xdc dinh Id 25.
Ap dyng cdng thiic tren tinh chi sd tudi thg cho Ha Ndi theo sd lieu ciia Tdng dilu tra dan so ndm 2009 ta cd:
" 85-25
Ty le tre sa sinh co edn ed cdn ngng khdng dudi 2500 gram (hi): The trang ciia ngudi me kem, miic sdng thap ngudi dan khdng cd dieu ki$n chdm sdc con cdi ngay tir giai doan thai nlii, ngudi m? thilu thon phdi lam vi?c qud vdt vd... deu gdy ra tinh trang tre sinh ra qud nhd, khdng du 2500 gram. Den lugt nd, tre so sinh cd can cd can ndng dudi
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2500 gram lai trye tiep dnh hudng den the lyc cua cgng ddng, nang cao nguy co tre bj suy dinh dudng, cham Idn...
- Ty IC' tre em dudi 5 tudi cd dit tieu chudn dinh dudng (hs): The trang cua con ngudi d
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nhdm tudi dau ddi ed vai trd quyet djnh den the lyc cua toan bd cudc sdng. Day chinh Id tinh trang tre em khdng bi suy dinli dudng (SDD) va khdng bi beo phi. Trong dd, suy dinh dudng
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bao gdm cd 2 dang SDD theo chieu cao vd theo can ndng. Cdng thiic tinh I33:
Tyle tre em SDD + Ty le tre em SDD + Tyle tre J _ I theo chieu cao theo can ndng em beo phi
3
-Tyle ddn eu khdng nghien hut, khdng bi nhiem HIV/AIDS (ky hieu hd-
Dai dich HIV/AIDS va te nghien hiit ma tiiy dang ldm CLDS bi suy yeu nghiem trgng cd ve the chat vd tinh thdn. Nd lam cho the lyc, ndng lyc cua con ngudi bi han che, tham chi bi tan lyi.
Ty le ddn cu nhiem -1- Ty le dan cu
I34 -
^ 1 . HIV/AIDS nghien hilt
'2
Tir 4 chi tieu tren, tinh chi sd ve the lyc (I3) theo cdng thiirc:
^ X r f
Chi SO ve "ca cdu dan so" (Ky hi^u I4)
' "^ f I ^ 7 7
Chi sd ve "'ca cau ddn so" nhdm ddnh gid bdn than tdng the dan cu dugc nghien ciiu cd dil cdc cdn ddi cin thiet de dam bdo phdt triln cd vl thi chit, tri tue va tinh than hay khdng. Ching ban mdt tong thi dan cu b} qud mit can bdng vl gidi tinh d tudi thanh nien se lam dao Ign quy ludt ty nhien vl hdn nhan, nay sinh cdc vin dl xa hdi nghiem trgng; Mdt dan sd gia se khdng thi dam bdo sy manh me cd vl thi chit, tri tue va tinh thin vdi ban than ngudi gid va ca xd hgi do ganh ndng nudi dudng, cham sdc cdc cu... Vi le tren, chi sd ve "ca cau ddn so" bao gdm cdc thanh phin sau:
^ X r X
- Chi sd cdn bdng gidi tinh khi sinh (hi): Mat can bdng gidi tinh khi sinh se lam ndy
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sinh nhieu hau qud xa hdi nghiem trgng trong tuong lai, nhat Id vdi gidi tre. Nd tdc ddng
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den vi the kinh te-xa hdi cua tre em gdi vd phy nii, bao lyc tren co sd gidi se gia tang ciing
vdi nan budn bdn phu nir vd tre gdi, hanh phiic vd siic khde ciia tre em gai se bi dnh
hudng... I41 dugc tinh tren co sd Ty sd gidi tinh khi sinh (SRB) theo cdng thuc:
Phgm Dgi Dong 21
/., =1
'41SRB-SRB „
'S'^^max - ' ^ ^ ^ m i nTrong dd: SRB: ty sd gidi tinh khi sinh cua dan sd dugc nghien cihi.
SRBmax: Ty sd gidi tinh khi sinh Idn nhat (150).
SRBmin: Ty sd gidi tinh khi sinh nhd nhat (104).
, ' f r 7 f f
- Chi so eo cdu ddn sd theo tudi (I42): Dan sd cang trd, ty le tre em cdng ddng, tdc dp tdng ty nhien dan sd ldm, tudi thg trung binh ciia cdng ddng thap vd nguge lai. Dieu dd tac ddng tieu cyc den CLDS. Nguge lai, vdi co cau dan sd gid, van de an sinh xa hdi eho mot ddi ngii ddng ddo ngudi gia lai la mdt gdnh nang cho xa hdi, nhdt la vdi mdt qudc gia edn ngheo nhu Viet Nam. Mat khde, dan sd cdng gia, siic khde cang yeu, ndng suat lao ddng gidm siit, lyc lugng lao ddng ndi rieng, sd dan ndi chung cang suy gidm... CLDS lai suy giam. Vi nhiing le tren, mdt sy can bang tuong ddi giura cae nhdm tudi trong tdng the daii cu cd y nghTa quan trgng the men chat lugng eua dan sd dd. Vi vay, chi sd co cau dan sd theo tudi (I42) dugc
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tinh dya vdo ty sd phy thude (DR) ciia dan sd nghien ciiu, theo cdng thiic sau:
DR-DR„..
^ 4 2 = 1
DR„,-DR.
Trong dd: DRmin: Ty sd phy thude thdp nhat (Trong Tdng DTDS 2009 d nude ta la Binh Duong 26,7%]
DRmax: Ty sd phy thude ldm nhat ed the. (Theo quan sdt duge eua cdc nudc tren the gidi, va ngay d Viet Nam ndm 1979 con sd nay len tdi 100%).
Tir dd, chi sd thdnh phan ve co cau dan sd (I4) dugc tinh theo cdng thiic:
Xdc dinh chisS tdng harp ddnh gid chdt luang dan sS (IPQ)
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Chi sd tdng hgp ddnh gid CLDS (IPQ) duge tinh la sd binh quan nhan gidn don cua 4 chi so thdnh phin da tinh dugc. Cdng thire tinh chi sd tdng hgp la:
^PQ~\h ^^2 '^^3 ^ M
Can Cli vdo do ldm cua IPQ de ddnh gid CLDS dugc nghien ciiru. Theo kinh nghiem ciia LHQ, cd thi ddnh gid chit lugng dan sd cdn cii vdo gid tri cua IPQ nhu sau:
TT 1 2 3 4 5 6
Gid tri cua Ipo Ipo <0,3
0,3 < Ipo < 0,5 0,5<Ipo<0,7 0,7<lpo<0,8 0,8 < Ipo < 0,9 0,9 < IPO < 1,0
Chdt lucrng ddn so Chit lupng dan s6 khung hoang ChSt lirpng dan s6 thdp
ChSt lirpng dan s6 trung binh Chit lupng dan s6 khd Chit lugng dan ,s6 khd cao Chit lupng dan s6 rit cao
Ap dung chi so tren ddnh gid chat lugng dan so Hd Npi
Theo sd lieu Tdng dieu tra dan so nam 2009, Nien gidm thong ke Ha Ngi ndm 2009 va eae ngudn khac, cd thi tinh duge eac chi so thdnh phan phdn dnh chat lugng dan sd Ha Ndi nam 2009 nhu sau:
Chi so thanh phan Chi so
//
(Chi s6 ve "tinh thin")
h
(Chi s6 \k "tri l^rc")
h
(Chi so ve "the Iuc")
h
(Chi s6 v^ "ca cau dan so")
Gia trj
0,7258
0,7007
0,9043
0,8004
Cac chi bdo bO phdn Ky hi^u
I„
I|2 Il3 I|4 I2I I22
h^
h^
hi
I33 I34 I41 I42
Gia tri 0,824 0,58
0,80 0,7283 0,979 0,3453 0,831 0,956 0,844 0,9973 0,80 0,8008
Ghi chii
Khong c6 sd li^u
Chi so tong hgp chat lugng dan so Ha Ngi nam 2009 se Id:
IpQ = ijl.xl^xl^xl^ -V0,7258x0,7007x0,9043x0,8004 = 0,779
Nhu vay, CLDS cua Ha Ndi dugc tinh todn theo phuang phdp tren cimg cdc sd lieu dugc Idy tir nhieu ngudn khde nhau (chua dugc kiem djnh diy dii) mdi d gdn cudi giai doan chat lugng khd. Trong dd, cdc chi sd ve tinh than va tri lyc cdn khd thip. NIU dugc cdi thien
X / P <M
