N g h i e n cOu • T r a o d o i
M xuat mo hinh giam sat va danh gia Chien lutfc quoc gia ve bien doi khi hau
• O ThS. N G U Y I N TOAN THANG G/ara <J5c Tnjng tam Cong nghe ilng pho biSn dSi khi hiu
Cue Khituang Thuf vin vi BlSn dai khi hiu
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ghien cUu niy nhim xay di/ng md hinh glim sit va Mnh gii (GS&OG) Chien lupe quSc gia ve BDKH (BDKH). Debao dam vlgc thuc hifa CWfa ii^w duvc lau dai, ben vOng vi hiiu qui, cdng tic GSiOG la hogt dgng khdng the thiol, ddng thdl ii cdng eg die luc giup cho cic nhi quan If vi hoach dinh chinh sich. Trong dd, mit bd dinh gii dugc xiy di/ng vdi 93 chlsd, chia thinh^hdm nhim GS&BG Wfa Vu/C hign 10 nhigm vg Mlgc dS ra trong Chien luge. Tuy nhiin, de hogt dgng GSiDG dugc lien tgc, higu qua, can cd mgt md hinh GSiDG . KSt qua nghien cUu da dua ra Olit mo hinh GS&BG, trong dd chl rd mdi tUdng tic giua dc ddn vi vi mgt sgphin cap rd rang trong qui trinh bio cio dU ll$u cho hogt dgng GS4BG ChlSn luge.
MS d i u
Theo Q u y l t dinh s l 57/QD-BTNMT n g i y 17/01/2013 c i a Bd TN&MT, d l t i l "Nghiin e i u d l x u i t x i y dflng b l d n g cy phye vg g i i m s i t v i d i n h g i i v i f a ttiflc h i i n C h i l n l i p c q u i e gia v l BDKH"
dflpc p h i d u y l t vdi mgc dfch chinh la x i y dflng v i ban h i n h Bd d n g cg QS&DG n h i m hudng d f a v i cgng d p d e d n g cg d n ttiilt g i i p ttiflc h i i n d n g t f a GS&DQ. Cung vdi dd, mdt md hinh GS&DQ se dflpc dflpc d l x u i t n h i m sd d l h d d c budc v i q u i trinh ttiflc W i n d n g t i e QS&DG eho C h i l n lupc.
P h l M i g p h i p n g h i i n c i u
Phuang phip nghiin alu tii lilu. TO viic phin ttch d c ehinh d c h v l BDKH, ttiu ttiip t i i lipu, s l Ufa v i t i n g hpp ttiing ttn v i dfla t r i n d c ea sd khoa hpc v i thye tien, p h i hpp vdi d i l u k i i n p h i t t r i l n KT-XH c i a V i i t Nam v i r i s d t d c cd c h l , chinh s i c h d l i l n quan d i n vifa t l chflc ttiflc h i i n d c n h i i m vg c i a C h i l n Iflpc d l dua ra phflong p h i p l u i n v l GS&DG v i f a t l chflc ttiflc Win C h i l n Iflpc.
Phuang phip nghiin cdu thuc dia: 0 1 t i l da n g h i i n cflu hien ttang v i ttiam v l n tai d c bd, n g i n h v i dja phuong n h i m r i s d t , p h i n tteh h i i u q u i d c
n h i i m vy, bien p h f a QLNN trong QS&DG c i c hoat d f a g fag phd vdi BDKH. P h i n ttch ttIm nang p h i t t r i l n d c hoat ddng ttiflc W i n C h i l n Iflpc theo tflng giai doan n h i m d l x u i t x i y dflng co sS d i lieu, ttidng tin phgc vg GS&DG thfle hien C h i l n lupc v i c i e n h i i m vy. bien p h i p GS&DG g i i thfle h i i n C h i l n Iflpc dfla t r f a d c co d u t l chflc n g i n h dpc l i i n quan.
PhiMig phip tham vSn chuyin gia: D l t i i da ttiam v f a k i t hap vdi d c c h u y i n gia trong v i n g o i i nflde nham r i s d t , danh g i i c i e phfldng p h i p luan ttong GS&DG cae c h i l n Iflpc, k l hoach, chflong trinh d p q u i c gia v i mang tinh l i i n n g i n h , l i l n ITnh vflc.
D i n h g i i , p h i n tfch d c p h i o n g p h i p l u i n p h i hpp vdi v i f a GS&DG d n g t i c t l chflc thfle h i i n d e hoat ddng i n g phd vdi BDKH; p h i n tich c i c nhl$m vg ttong C h i l n iflpc n h i m d i a ra d c c h ? s l QS&DG cy ttil cho t i n g ITnh vflo. X i y dflng phfldng p h i p chung cho GS&DG ttiflc hipn C h i l n iflflc p h i hpp vdi d i l u kifa k h i c h quan ttieo t i n g giai doan.
Sau khi nghiin c i u v i p h i n tich, nhdm n g h i i n c i u x i c dinh ap dgng k i t hpp d ba phuang p h i p d l thfle W i n d l tai. N g o i i ra, k i t hpp s i dgng mOt s l phflang p h i p n g h i i n c i u khac nhfl: PhflOng p h i p phfa ttch v i t i n g hpp ly ttiuylt, phflflng p h i p m l hinh h d , phflflng p h i p sa d l , phflflng p h i p p h i n loai v i h i ttiing hoa ly ttiuylt d l cd dflpc k i t q u i cd k h i n i n g fag dgng cao.
K i t q u i n g h i i n cflu
T r i n CO s6 lfla chpn GS&DG i i phflflng p h i p dfla tt-en k i t q u i v i k i t q u i bp ch? s l QS&DG, nhdm n g h i i n c i u da d l ra m l hinh GS&DG thfle h i i n C h i l n Iflpc nhfl sau:
Cdcautd chde thgc hl$n GSiDG ChiSn luge qude gia
H i ttiing GS&DG l i c i n c i d l thuc d i y ttiflc hifa ChUn Iflpc ttiln khai manh m i , ttjfa d i i n v i h i f a q u i . H i ttidng GS&DG dflpc x i y dflng bao g i m ' 3 d p dfla b i n n l n t i n g h# ttiing t l c h i c ttiflc h i i n C h i l n Iflpc. bao g i m :
Tdi n g u y i n v d Mei t r u o n g I W l - l l i i m i gi20ia
11
Hinh 1: Aid ti'mh giim sat, danh gii vlgc thifc hiin ChiSn luge
CSp lnng uang: Khoin 3, Bleu 5 Quylt dinh so 2139/QB-TTg quy djnh Bd TN&MT ttiflc hiin nhiim vy ea quan thfldng ttflc UBQG v l BDKH ehi tri, phil hpp vdi d e bd, nganh v i dja phfldng quin ly v i thfle hiin Chiln Iflpc ed trach nhiem: "GS&DQ viic thfle hifa Chlln Iflpe; t l chflc kilm tra glim sat v i djnh ky sa kit dinh gii nit kinh nghiim vifa thfle hiin Chiln Iflflc; djnh ky hing nim ting hpp bio cio Ttiu tfldng Chinh phi kit qui thfle hiin Chiln Iflpc".
CSp bi, nginh: Mge c, khpin 3, dilu 5 Quylt dmh s l 2139/QD-TTg quy dinh cic bd, co quan ngang b| v i d c co quan thufa Chinh phi "chju ttich nhiim xiy dflng v i triln khai k l hoaeh thfle hiin Chlln Iflpc, chi dfag ttiam gia cac hoat dfag phli hpp Chung theo ch? dao cua Chinh phi". '
CSp tinh, thinh phS true thuie Tmng uang: Muc UBND tinh, thinh phi trflc ttiudc Tmng flong "Dinh ky bio eio v l tiln d | thfle hiin cfa mgc ttiu nhiim vg cga Chifa Iflpe trin dia bin tinh, thinh phi theo qgy dmh . Chlln Igpc quic gia quy dinh ro vai trd v i ttich nh«m cua d e bin liin quan trong glim sit v i dinh gii thfle hiin, triln khai Chiln Iflpe. Cg ttil:
uy ban Quie gia vi BDKH: UBQG v l BBKH cd chflo ning tt/ vfa, giup Chinh phi, Thi tt/dng Chinh Phu trong vje nghifa ciu, d l xuit. chldao, phli hpp, din die gii, quylt d c edng tie quan trpng, manq tfnh Ufa ngfah.irnh VflccfaChflOngtrinh,ChrfaTflpe Mgc 3, dilu 2 quy dinh rd nhiim vy, quyln han cua Uy ban: "Chl dao, dilu phli, glim sit, ddn die vifa ttiflc hiin Chifa Iflpc, Chflong trinh v l BDKH bio dim hifa qui, ding bp v i thing nhir.
. , MlJ!!?'^"^'^°'^'^""''i«mvgcaquantf,fldnQ tn;c UBQG ve BBKH; ehi tri, phli hpp vdi cfa bd nginh v i dia phflong qufaiyvittiyehlinChifaiupc' tip ttung vfa d e nil dung: Xiy dflng efl ehl, chTh
sach quin ly, dilu hinh, hudng din thfle hiin ChlSi Iflpc; Hing nim, phli hpp vdi B l KH&DT, B | Ta chinh ting hpp, r i soat nhu d u kinh phi d n thilt clio cac hoat ddng flng phd vdi BDKH d l bio d o ChW phi; hfldng dan v i h i trp cic b l , nginh va dB phflong trong viic xiy dflng v i trien khai k l hoadi ttiflc hien Chien Iflpc; t l chic kilm tra, glim sit va dinh ky sd kit danh gia rit kinh nghiim viec thifc hiin Chiln Iflpc; dinh ky hfag nim ting hpp, bio cio Thi tfldng Chfnh phi kit qui thfle hiin Chiln iflpc, de xuat giii quylt nhflng vln d l phit sinh vupt thim quyln; giim sit v i dinh gii viic thfle hiin Chiln Iflpc.
Vin phdng UBQGBDKH: Xiy dflng, Oy ban dl trinh Thi tfldng Chinh phi ban hinh v i hfldng din thfle hiin bd oh? so v i Khung GS&DG vile thfle hiin Chlln Iflpc quic gia v l BBKH; djnh ky r i soit v i cip nhit bo sung bp ch? s l v i khung GS&DG cho phii hpp vdi tinh hinh mdi; giip UBQG v l BDKH din die cic bp, nginh, dja phflong thu thip s l lieu giim sit v i bio cio theo dinh ky; ting hpp, phin tich s l lliu d i xiy dflng bio cio theo quy dinh dflpc niu trong Chlln Iflpe quic gia trinh Ciy ban, bio cio Chfnh phi v l kit qui dng tic ing phd BDKH trin pham vl toin quic; tham miu oho Uy ban hfldng dan yiu ciu n|i dung v i quy trtnh t l ehfle sd kit, ting kit v i dinh gia tt/ didi lin; t l chflc t^p huan, ning cao nfag Igc cho cin b | eia cie bd, nginh va cio flnh v l Khung giam sit v i dinh gii; phli hpp vdi cac nhi til trfl cac t l Ohio quic t l d l chia s i thong tin v i vin dfag kmh phf thfle hifa vifa GS&DG thyc hiin Chifa lupc qudc gia.
Cic bi, nginh: Cic bd, nginh theo chic nfag, nhiim vg dupc giao trong k l hoach thfle hiin Chiln Iflpc ch? dao d c dja phflflng, dfa vi thfle hiin cic chflflng trinh, d l an, dfl i n thulc pham vi trich nhi^m quin ly cia b|, nginh; ting hpp bio cfa kit
?,, i h l ? " ""•*"' ^^ "^^ "^ B«"<H. Trich nhl?m eg thl, bao gim: Ban hinh van bin hfldng dfa d o cfa dan Vi trflc thufa v i d c sd thfle hiin dng tac giam sit thfle hiin Chifa Iflpc qufa gia; phin n i m d l t h " . " . " = " * " ' ' " ^ P^' =^ nghip hing nim d l thfle hiin edng tic giim sit thfle hiin Chlln S , « L''5 "^"^ "*•=• ^'^"^ "^ "'«•= "ii^^ hifa, bio
^ BDKH ^ " " " °*° '*" ^ * " l " ^ * " ' UBQG
12 Tdi nguyfa yd M6I frudnn
'Jy ban nhin din cac Unhdhinh phi true thufc
Tmrv uang: Ban hinh vfa bfa hfldng din cho cic
hl/n J^h™/?' " 9 ^ " ' " ' ' f = Win efag tfa gi4m sit ttiflc
nifa Chifa Iflpc quoc gia; phin b l kinh phi t i nguin
kmh phi Sfl nghiip hing nim d l ttiflc hiin cdng tic
j | , g i i m s i t C h i l n Iflpc q u i c gia; Chl dao v i f a to c h i c .^ t i p huan cho c i n b l c i a d c huyen, va sd, n g i n h v l JJ khung g i i m s i t v i d i n h g i i ; ddn d i e , k i l m tra v i i c
^ thfle hipn b i o d o t i l n dd theo dinh ky; t l c h i c c i c h$i ngW sd k i t , t i n g k i t danh g i i k i t q u i ttiflc hien ' chfldng trtnh, ke hoach h i n h dpng cua flnh trong v i i c thfle Win C h i l n Iflpc q u i c gia; dinh ky b i o d o l i n ' V i n phdng UBQG v l BDKH.
^ Ngudn luc de tien hinh edng tic GS&DG I, N g u i n n h i n Iflc nham b i o d i m cdng t i c ,| GS&DG dflpc thfle hien thfldng x u y i n v i l i i n ttjc.
C f a dpn vi Jiin quan dflpc neu trong so d l can p h i n cong it nhat mdt can b i cd chuyen mdn s i u , da dflpc d i o tao v l g i i m s i L danh gia d l l i m d i u m i i thfle hi$n cdng t i e GS&DQ vi$c thfle h i i n C h l l n
• lupc q u i c gia. N g o i i ra, V i n phdng UBQG v l BDKH d n t h i n h l i p , t l chflc mpt bo p h i n bap gom c i c c h u y i n gia v l cac llnh vflc c i n GS&DG. Bp phan n i y se chiu trach nhiem tham mflu, d i n h g i i c i c s l lieu, b i o c i o , k i t q u i thfle hien C h i l n Iflpc m i c i c Bd, ban, n g i n h , UBND cac t?nh, thanh p h i gjlj v l cho v a n phdng.
V I d n g t i c d i o tao, ngay sau khi khung QS&DG dflpc p h i duyet, V i n phdng UBQG v l BDKH t l chflc k h o i d i o tao cho c i c e i n bd dflpc lfla chpn n i u t r i n d l hudng d f a v l H i t h i n g GS&DG- c i c b i l u m i u , quy trinh, v i h i t h i n g t h i n g ttn. Dinh ky t l chflc d i o tao lai v i d i o tao mdi cho c i c can bo n i u t r i n .
Cd che vi nguin Igc til chinh
N h i m b i o d i m c i n g t i c GS&DQ thfle h i i n C h l l n Iflpc q u i c gia dflpc thfle hien theo k l hoaeh thflang x u y i n Bin tgc v i cd c h i t Iflang, N h i nflde c l r i b i o d i m n g g i n n g i n s i c h eho hoat ddng n i y C i n c i v i o k l hoach n g i n sach dflpo p h i d u y i t , h i n g n i m , UBQG v l BBKH. c i c b | , nginh v i dia phflong, c i n b l sung v i o n g i n s i e h h i n g n i m c i a hoat d i n g flng phd BDKH n g u i n kinh phi thfle thien g l i m s i t d i l u tra, k h i o s i t , d i n h g i i .
C i c n g u i n Iflc t i l chinh phgc vg cdng t i e GS&DG v i f a thfle hien C h l l n Iflpe q u i c gia cd t h l dflpc c i n d l i tfl c i c n g u i n : Sy nghiip, chi thfldng x u y i n c i a n g i n sach; v l n h i trp q u i e t l v i c i c nguin v f a hpp p h i p khac. C i c n g i n s i c h n i y , m i t s i hang mgc dflpc s i dgng kinh phi d l thfle h i i n c i n g t i c GS&DQ g i m : Thu t h i p t h i n g fin, k h i o s i t , d i l u tf-a; t i n g hpp s l l l i u , p h i n tich v i l i p b i c c i p ; t i p huan nghiip vg; t l chflo d i n h g i i .
K i t l u i n v i k i i n nghf
Trong khudn k h i d l t i l nghiin c i u n i y , nhdm n g h i i n cflu da d l x u i t md hinh GS&DG C h i l n Iflpc.
Kem ttieo dd la sa do h o i d c m i l l i i n quan c i a cac dan vi, bp, ngfah v i c i c b i n l i i n quan trong vifa ttiflc hipn GS&DG C h i l n Iflpc. Trong giai do?n d i g ttiflc W i n GS&DG cho C h l l n iflpc, ca quan trung fldng v i c i c b i , n g i n h se la co quan d i u m l i thfle h i f a v i f a ttep n h f a dO lieu, h i ttrl ky thuit, p h i n hoi v i ehia s i ttidng ttn cho d c ben lien quan. Be tfl dd d i lipu dflflc t i p tmng tai Van phong Ciy ban v l BDKH cho v i f a GS&DG C h i l n Iflpc.
Tuy nhien, trong md hinh GS&DG n i y , VSn phdng Ciy ban v l BDKH se l i co quan thfle hipn vipc GS&DG Chifa lupc nhflng bd m i y hoat ddng c i a cd quan n i y h i i n tai lai chua ttil d i p i n g dflpc d n g vifa dd. VI v i y , d l khfa phgc tmh trang n i y , can flu tten r i s o i t lai e i c hoat dpng e i a V i n phdng v i cd n h i n g d i l u chfnh cg ttil:
Be b i o d i m n g u i n s i lieu dflpc c i p n h i p h i i u q u i v i chinh x i c nhat chp q u i trtnh QS&DG, d n cd sfl d i u tfl n h i t dinh d l x i y dflng m i l h i t h i n g CSDL dong n h i t va h o i n thifa han.
D i i vdi n g u i n n h i n sfl: C f a md r i n g tham gia c i a d e c h u y i n gia trong mpi Ifnh vflc v l BBKH.
D i l vai nguon t i i chinh hoat d | n g cho V i n phdng: Do kinh phi thfle h i i n GS&DG dflpe i l y tfl n g u i n v l n duy trt boat ddng c i a V i n phdng. vl v i y c i n efl theo sfl md rdng c i a co c i u t l chflc c i a VSn p h d n g m i c d d l x u i t d l t i n g t h i m kinh phi b i o d i m v i i c ttiflc hipn GS&DQ dflpc b i o d i m .
Tai l i f a tham k h i o
1. B l NN&PTNT (2013), Khung Iheo doi dinh gia viic thifc hl$n ChiSn iuifc qudc gia vS phdng ehSng vi glim nhg thiin tai, H i N i l ;
2. B l NN&PTNT (2013), C f a ChlsS giim sit vi danh gii dc kS hogeh vi chiSn luge quin ly tSng hgp til nguyin nudc. H i N|i;
3. Bd TN&MT (2013), H$ thing giim sit vi Hnh gia Chuang trinh mgc lliu quSc gia vi Ung phd vd/SOKH, H i N p i , -
4. Thu tfldng Chinh p h i (2012;, QuySt dinh sS 1474/QO-TTg vi viic ban hinh KS hogeh hinh ddng quSc gia vg BDKH glal dogn 2012-2020, H i N|i;
5. T h i tt/dng Chinh p h i (2012), QuySt dmh sS 213g/QD-TTg ngiy 05/120011 clia Thi tudng Chinh phi ve viic ban hinh ChiSn luge QuSc gia vS BDKH H i Npi;
6. US Govemient (2009), Climate Change Im- pacts in the United States, United States. • Tdi n g u y f a v d M o i t u f o n g | K H - H a m H / a i l B i l