Yeu to dau vao anh hu'dng den nang suat va thu nhap ho nuoi torn vung ven bien Ben Tre
DC/dMG THE D O V
Tom tat
Nghien cdu sd dung phuong phdp hoi quy tuong quan da hien de xdc dinh cdc ye'u td ddu viio dnh hudng de'n ndng .sudt vd ihu nhap cda hd niidi tdm vung ven bien cda tinh Ben Tre. Sd lieu sif diing Irong nghien cdu duoc thu thdp thdng qua cudc phdng vdn trifc liep 109 hd nuoi tdm tren dia hcin cua 3 huyen ven bien gom: B'mh Bai. Ba Tri vd Thanh Phu. Kel qud eho thdy cdc yeu id: Dien tich ddt nudi, Gidng tdm, Kien thifc ndng nghiep vd Chi phi ihife dn cd Ide ddng den ndng sudl vd thu nhdp cua do nudi idni
T(i k h o a : ndng sud't. thu nhap. hieu qud kinh le. iiiidi Idm. Ben Tre
S u m m a r y
The study use.s multivariate regression to identify jactors oj inputs that affect the produclivil) and income of shrimp farmers in the coastal area of Ben Tre province Datas are collected through direct interviews of 109 shrimp households in three coastal districts of Binh Dai. Ba Tri and Thanh Phu.
The results show that Farming area. Shrimp seed. Agricultural knowledge and Feed expense make (in impacl on ihe productivity and income of .shrimp households
Ki^ywords: prodiietivitx. income, econoniu ellieicne\. shrimp Icirming. Ben Tre ^y
GIQil THIEU ircn da him anh htfdng de'n ihu nh^lp ciia ban th.in ho nuoi lom va ca cac ccf q u a n quan 1> dia phifdng \ a n Vdi nliiTng ldi the ve dieu kien ttt chtfa quan tam diing mife Tnfdc thtfc te nay. cau hoi nhien ciia vung \ c n bien, nghe nuoi irong dtfdc dat la la Thtfc t u m g eae yeu ldd;iu \ ;io, nang suat tlitiy san etia tinh B e n T r e da ed htfdc \ a thu nhap ciia ho nuoi lom tfnh B e n T r e Irong thdi phat Iricii kha m a n h trong thdi gian qua, gian t|ua nhif Ihc n a o ' ' MtVe do uic d o n g ctia e a e v e u id dien hinh lit n g h e nuoi lom. T i o n g nhffng diiu \ a o d e n nang sual \ a ihu nhiip ctia ho nudi lom ra nam gan ilay. n g h e nudi lom tiii diftic bat sao? >'eu id luio giCf \ a i lid q i i \ e l dmh n a n g e a o nang diiu phiit t n e n tai huyen Binh Dai, Ba .sinil wi thu nhap hd nuoi lonV Do \ a v , \'ice nghien cthi T n , T h a n h Phii \ a d;i giiii L|U\CI dtfdc i.ie dong LLILI cae \ e u lo d.iu \ a o den n a n g suiit vii thu trinh Hang that n g h i e p . gdp phfm liing Ihu nliap eua ciie ho nuoi loni if \ i i n g xen bien linh Ben T r e nhiip, xdii ddi guim n g h e o Tuv nhicn, lii can ihiei. co > nghia khoa hoc \ a thife lien hicn na\ imhc nudi torn I'f Ben T r e . nszuai
vice phdl ddi mat \ d i nhieu Ihaeh ihd. ^e C O SO LY THUYET VA P H U a N G PHAP o nhic-m nguon mfdc. dieli beiili keo dai. N G H I E N CU'U
liVi cdn ei'i nhung kiid khau. ninf: dicn lieh
nudi khdng dung lieu chuan kien llufc Co' sd ly thuyel
nudi eon h.in e h e . ehi phi s;in \ u a t ttfifng Nghieii ei'fu eua N g u \ e n Qud'c Nghi. Bin Van1"rmh ddi e<io. ilae hiel l.i chi phi eon gidng \ a I l u \ n h M m h I'ruNen (2(ll()| eho l h a \ . Ciie bie'n, nhtf' lluVc iin Dieu ctd cho i h a \ . nhu'ng ye'u id' Chi phi Lio d d n g . Chi phi iht'fe a n . Chi phi thudc - hoa
ThS rru'ong Dai hoc Ton Di/c: Thang tmail theduvKii'gmail com
\-,M );/«/'(/'<(/ 2:'n2'20l'' \'::i:\ fliiiii hull 22/0^ 2nr \'.:ii\ dii\:i dmi- In/iurol"
51
chSt, Ky thuat ouoi co tac dong thuan chiiu vdi n3ng suift t6ra nuoi cua tinh Tra Vinh.
Con theo La Thi Phif<ftig Mai. Dtfcfng Van j^Ii va Tr^n Ngoc Hai (2014), Dign tich nu6i la y^u to dang anh htrdng d^n nang suat nuoi tdm d 3 tinh Soc Trang, Bac Lieu va Ca Mau.
C6ng trinh nghien cu^ cua Huynh Thi Tii (2006) jai xac dinh difdc rang, Chi phi thuSc v^ Hda chlft chii'm 24,8% tdng chi phi, Chi phi thiJc an la 50,5%, Chi phi torn giong chimin khoang 5%-8% tdng chi phi nu6i torn thSm canh/bSn tham canh va 10%-20% trong nuoi quang canh cac loai. Chi phi th& an cd vai tro quyet dinh tdi nang suat va san lu'dng, hieu qua nghi nuoi t6m.
Difa tren cac nghien ctJu trdn, tdc gid lifa chpn cic yeu to' d^u vao d l du'a vao mo hinh ph3n tich, g6m;
Quy m6 didn tich, MSt dO tha, Kien thi?c nSng nghiep, Cong lao ddng, Chi phi thu'c an, Chi phi thudc - hda cha't, Chi phi con giong va Ye'u td loai gi6'ng. Bdt theo dieu tra thtfc te, cac hp nuoi torn ven bien ciia tinh B6'n Tre hign nay chu yeu tha nuoi 2 loai giong torn the chan trSng (gpi tat la TCT) va torn sii.
Tac gia sd dung mo Mnh dang ham san xuSft Cobb - Douglas (Dinh Phi Ho, 2012), day la mot ham phd bien trong phan tich kinh te dinh lifdng diJng cho hoi quy da bie'n vdi tu'dng quan phi tuye'n tinh giiTa cac biS'n doc lap va bien phu thuoc de phan tich dinh lu'dng mifc dp anh hu'dng cac yeu to'lifa chon den nang sua't, thu nhlp ciia cac hp^nuoi tom viing ven bien tinh Bg'n Tre. Mo hinh cu the nhu'sau:
Y = aSi" F^- Sei*-' Ul" L^^ Cgi'^Cai^' Ct^** (1) Tii mo hinh (1) cd the Itfpng hda anh hddng ciia cac nhan td dtfdi dang md hinh hot quy tuye'n tinh:
LnV = p^ + p,LnS + p^LnF + p^Se + p LnU + pXnL + P.LnCg + p,LnCa + p^LnCt (2)
vdi p„ = Lnct
^ Trong do: P-he sdhdi quy va chinh la he sdco gian cua bien phu thuoc ddi vdi cac bien ddc lap.
S: Quy mo dien dch;
F: Mat dp tha;
U: Kien thdc nong nghiep;
L: Cdng lao dong;
Ca: Chi phi thi^c an;
Ct: Chi phi thudc - hoa chat;
Cg: Chi phi con gio'ng:
Se: Yeu tdloai gio'ng.
Cac gia tri cua LnYdoc lap thong ke doi vdi nhau Tat ca cac gia tri trung binh ctia LnY deu nam tren mot difdng hoi quy tdng the; khong cd quan he cdng tuye'n giifa Ciie bien doc lap.
PhiUmgphdp nghien cdu
Nghien eifu sddiing hdm hdi quy tifOng quan da hien dc phan Uch .sif anh hifdng cua cac ye'u td dAii vao den nang stmt va thu uhap eiia hd nuoi tom tinh Be'n Tre Cae g^t thuyet du'dc dtfa ra la: (1) Cac ye'u tdddu vao!
nhif: Quy mo dien tich. Con gidng. Mat dd thii, Kie'n thuc nong nghiep, Cong lao dong, Chi phi thife an. Chi phi thuoc - hoa chat. Chi phi con ddn-i ed tac ddn"
thuan chieu den .Vang sua't ^h ngh.eh e-hidu vdi ThS
52
nh^p cua ho nu6i t6m hay kh6ng?; ^ Mtfc dd tac dOng cfia cfic y^u to'dlu v5o den Nang suat vS Thu nhSp ciSa h§ D khdc nhau; (3) Cd sif khdc nhau v l Nang suS't va Thu nh4p gii^a h6 nuoi con !^m si5 va tom TCT. ' f Thu thap so lieu: Ngodi cdc th3m tin, s6' h$u thti cS'p dtfdc thu thSp tif cfe sd, ban, nganh va cd quan qudn ly 6 (^
phifdng, nghien ciJu thifc hi$n dieu ira khao sdt 109 ho nuoi torn tai cdc xa ven bidn; xa Binh Thang, Thijfa DiJc, Th()i Thu^n, Thanh Phtfdc thudc huydn Binh Dai (46 ho); xa An Thuy, Bao Thanh, Bao ThuEin thuoc huyen Ba Tri (35 ho); xa Giao Thanh, Thanh Hdi, Thgnh Phong_ thuoc huyen Thanh Phu (28 ho), So mlu di^u tra d huyen Binh Dai \i nhilu nha't vi day la huyen cd dien tich va san lifdng nudi tdm nhilu nha't Tinh, ke' tiep la huyen Ba Tri va Thanh PhiT Dieu tra difdc tien hanh tCf thdng 04/2016 de'n thdng 06/2016. _
Do'i ttfdng la'y mau: Dai dien hp gia dinh nuoi tom (ngifdi trifc tie'p nuoi).
Phifdng phap lay mau: La'y mau nglu nhien khdng lap lai.
KET QUA VA THAO LU/JiN Phdn tich cdc yeu td ddu vdo anh hudng den ndng suat
Tvt ket qua dieu tra ciia 109 hd nii6i torn vung ven bien cua tinh Ben Tre, kSi qua cac ye'u to' tac ddng de'n nang suS't du'pc trinh bay d Bang i cho thay loai b6 bie'n F. L, Cg, Ct va chap nhan 4 bien dfic lap con lai S, Se, U, Ca. Cac bien bi lo?i gdm 4 bien F, L, Cg va Cldo kh6ngc6J nghia thd'ng ke, co the difdc giai thich do ke't qua va hieu qua san xua't khong c6 stf chenh lech dang ke.
Kel qud md liinh lUa chon la:
LnY, =2,04 +2,104LnS+ i.337Se + 0.371LnU+l,722LnCa
Y, = e-'« S-"» Se''''' U"'"" Ca'-'"
^ Do'i vdi ke't qua kiem dmh mo hinh hdi quy LnY^, cd the thay rSng, mo hinh difa ra la hoan toan phCi hdp vdi thUc t^
tai mdc y nghia thong ke 99%. Cd d^n 78,4% thay ddi nang suat ciia hp nu6i torn difdc giai thich bdi cac bien doc lap.
Y nghia cua cdc tham .so He sd(31= 2.104 la he so'co gian cua nang suat/cong' dd'i vdi dien tich. pi cho biet, trong tru'dng hdp cac ye'u to' khac trong mo hinh khong doi khi dien lich liing len 1%, thi nang sua't/cdng ciia hO
tdng trung binh 2,104%. Diiu nky cho thS^y, n^u di$n tich ao nudi rdng se giup con tdm Idn nhanh hdn, giif difdc s^ dn dinh ciia cdc ydu td mdi trtfdng, nhift 1^
khi thdi tiS't lliay ddi d l ddng tao difdc sif ddi lifti gii?a cdc ting mfdc va cac khu vifc trong ao, diiu hda lifdng khi oxy hoa tan trong nifdc giup tdm Idn nhanh hdn, nang sud't cao hdn.
He sdps = 1,337 la h6 sd' co gian ciia nang suat/cong dd'i vdi loai gidng ma hp chpn nudi, P3 cho bid't, trong tnfdng hdp cac yeu td' khac trong md hinh khdng ddi khihd chpn nudi tdm TCT, thinSng suat/cdng cua hd cao hdn nhiJng hd chpn nudi gidng tdm sti trung binh khodng 133,7 kg/cdng. Dieu nay cho thS'y, ndu chpn nudi con tdm TCT, thi nang sulft se cao hdn con tdm su, mdt trong nhu'ng nguydn nhan la do mat dd tha nudi trung binh ciia ngifdi dSn do'i vdi con tdm TCT (116 con/m-) day hdn ga'p ddi mat dp tha con tOm su (46,4 con/m').
He sdP4 = 0,371 la he so co gian ciia nang suat/cdng dd'i vdi kien thd'c nong nghiep ciia hp, P4 cho biet, trong tnfdng hdp cac yeu to'khac trong md hinh khdng ddi khi kie'n thdc nong nghiep tang len 1%, thi nang sua't/cdng ciia hd lang trung binh 0,371%. Dieu nay cho tha'y, nd'u cdc hp chiu tim tdi hpc hot, nam bat difdc ky thuat nuoi.., thi nang sual se cao hdn cac hd khac.
He sd^y = 1,722 la he sd'co gian ciia nang suat/cdng dd'i vdi chi phi thifc an, ag cho bid't, trong tru'dng hdp cac yeu id khdc trong md hinh khdng ddi khi chi phi thifc an tang len 1%, thi nang sua't/
cdng ciia hd tang trung binh 1,722%.
Dieu nay cho thS'y rang, ne'u dau tU thu'c an td't, cd cha't lu'dng cao, tdm an dii .se cang Idn lam tang nang sua't, nhifng cung can phai lifu y nen s.\i dung thi'fc an viJa dli tranh liing phi anh hifdng de'n moi tru'dng nifdc va hieu qua nuoi.
Phdn tich cdc yeu tdddu vdo dnh iiUdng den thu nhap
Tif ke't qua dieu tra ciia 109 hd nudi lom vCing ven bien ctia Tmh. ke't qua cac ye'u td'tac ddng den thu nhap dtfdc trinh bay dBang 2
Theo ke't qua trinh biiy d Bang 2, loai bd bie'n F. L. Cg. Ct va cha'p nhan 4 bien ddc lap con lai S. Se. U, Ca. Bon bien F, L, Cg vii Ct khdng ed y nghia thd'ng ke cd the difde giai thich do kel qua \ it hieu qua san xuat khdng cd sif chenh lech dang ke.
BAWG 1: KET QUA PHAN TICH CAc YEtl TO DAO VAO ANH HcrcfNG DEN HANG SUAT
•Bsac',lji6i.«clte •'
Ki^n thiJc nSna nehigp (U)
Chi phi thilc an (Ca) Chi phi thu& - hoa chat (Ct) HesoxiicainhR- ChlsoF Sie.F
HC s^(b).
2,04 '.104 1.337 0.46 0.371 0,566 1.831 1.722 1.322
C h i s l ^ 2.326 2,415 3,791 0,055 2,976 1,823 1,821 3.452 0.921 0.784 110.492 0,000
. Mtfc ^ D£lua p 0.078 0.000 0.000 0.812 0.000 0,008 0,179 0,000 0,213
BANG 2: KET QUA PHAN TICH CAC YEU TO DAU VAO ANH HUCiNG DEN THU N H A P C i c bi^n d$c l§p
H^ns so' Dien tich dai nuoi (S>
Loai gions(Se) MSt d6 tiia nuoi (F) Kien thu'c nong nghiep (U) C6ng lao donR (L) Clii phi con giong (Cg) Chi phi thij'c an (Ca) Chi Dhi thuoc - hoa chai (Ct) He so'xac dinh R- ChisoF Sig.F
Hftstftb) 1,56 1,069 0,291 0.32 0.237 -0,740 -1.038 -0,133 -1,253
Chi stf t 2,683 2,621 4,474 0,064 3,413 (1,705) (2,027) (4,127) (0,846) 0,852 110.337 0,000
Miic V nefaia p 0,094 0,000 0,000 0,949 0,000 0,006 0,027 0,000 0.398
Ke't qud md hinh Ufa chon Id:
LnY, = 1,56 + l,669LnS + 0,29ISe -I- 0,237LnU - 0.133Ln'Ca
Y, = e'-^^ S"^^ Se"^'^' U"-" Ca""'"^
Ddi vdi ket qua kiem dinh md hinh hdi quy LnY,, cd the tha'y rang, md hinh difa ra la hoan loan phii hdp vdi thifc te tai mdc y nghTa thd'ng ke 99%. Cd den 85,2%
thay ddi thu nhap ciia ho nudi tdm du'dc giai ihich bdi Ciic bie'n ddc lap.
Y nglna cua cdc tham sd
He sd (31 = 1,069 la he so co gian cua thu nhap rdng/cdng dd'i vdi dien tich, pi cho biet, trong tru'dng hdp cac yeu id khac trong md hinh khdng ddi khi dien tich tang len 1%, Ihi thu nhap rong/cdng ciia ho tang trung binh 1,069%. Tifdng tif nhu" tru'dng hdp tren va chi phi cang cao, thu nhap rdng hdn se cao hdn
He sd^3 = 0.291 la he sdco gian cua thu nhap rdng/
cdng dd'i vdi loai gidng ma hd chon nudi, P3 cho biet, trong tnfdng hdp cac yeu tdkhac trong mo hinh khdng ddi khi hd chon nuoi tdm TCT, thi thu nhap rdng/cdng ciia hd cao hdn nhu'ng ho chon nudi gid'ng tdm su irung binh khoang 29 tneu ddng/cdng. Dieu nay cho iha'y, viec chon nudi con torn TCT se td't hdn, nd cd siic de khang td't se dam bao khdng co dich bdnh vii trach thiet hai vc thu nhap rdng cho ho chon nudi.
Hi' sd f34 = 0.237 la he sd co gian ctia thu nhap rdng/cdng ddi vdi kie'n thdc ndng nghiep ciia hd. [34
53
BANG 3: SO SAHH KET QUA, HIEU QUA KINH TE CUA SAN XUAT GItlfA CON TOM SU VA TOM TCT
Gia biin (P) GO/cons NB/con"
GO/C MI/C NB/C PRC/TC
DVT
Lan Lan
•7^
TfimsD 733 150
^ P . l 146.3 107.7 L71 1.3'' L P 1.21
Tdm TCT 846 80 ''41,2 173,8 14^''
2.12 1.67 1.46 1.43
So sanh tdm TCT/sii 1,15 0.53 1,13 1,18 1,32 1,23 1,26 1,30 1,18
cho biet, trong tnfdng hdp cac yeu td khac trong md hinh khdng ddi khi kien thu'c ndng nghiep tang len 1%, thi thu nhap rdng/cdng cua ho tang trung binh 0,237%. Dieu nay cho thay, neu ho nudi tdm cd kien thiJc kinh te d cac ITnh vifc. nhif: thi tru'dng, gia ca, cung cau, thi se cd thu nhap rdng cao hdn so vdi cac ho khac.
He sd^8 = -0.133 la he sdco gian ciia thu nhap rdng/
cdng dd'i vdi chi phi thifc an, Pg cho biet trong tnfdng hdp cac yeu td khac trong md hlnh khdng doi khi chi phi thdc an tang len 1%, thi thu nhap rdng/cdng cua hd giam trung binh 0,133%. Dieu nay cho tha'y, trong cac khoan ehi phi, thi thdc an la ton kem nhieu nha't trong nudi tdm. viec cho an qua nhieu thdc an se gay lang pM vdn lam cho thu nhap rdng eiia hd giam di.
Phdn lich kel qud vd hieu qud kinh te eua hd nudi tom cua tinh Ben Tre
Qua so heu Bang 3 cho tha'y, nang sua't binh quan ciia mdt cdng la 733 kg/cong dd'i vdi tdm su va tdm TCT la 846 kg/cdng. Vdi gia ban binh quan chung ciia 109 hd nudi tdm su la 150.000 ddng/kg. thi binh quan GO/cdng dat la 212.1 trieu d6ng/cdng/\u. Vdi mdc dau tu'chi phi binh quan/cdng la 57.2 tneu ddng, thi mdi edng ngtfdi nuoi thu diroc thu nhap hdn hdp la 146.3 trieu ddng/
cdng/vu va thu nhSp rdng \h 107,7 trifu d6ng/cdng/vu. Cdn vdi con tdm TCT, U vdi mtfc gia ban binh quSn chung cfia 147 hd la 80 nghin d6ng/kg, thi binh q ^ GO/cdng dat la 241,2 trieu d6ng/c6ng«|
Vdi miJc dau tif chi phf binh quan/c6n^
62,7 tridu ddng, thi mdi cdng ngifdi nuW thu dUdc thu nhSp hdn hdp la 173,8 trieu ddng/cdng/vu va thu nhap rdng la 142,2 trieu ddng/cdng/vu.
KET LUAN
Ke't qua nghien cu\i cho thay, cdc yeu to' Dien tich dat nudi, Kien thu'c nong nghiep, Gio'ng tdm dang cd lac d6ng thuan chieu de'n Nang sua't va Thu nMp rdng ciia hd nudi tdm. Trong khi do, Chi phi thdc an la ye'u to' tac ddng thuSn chieu vdi Nang sua't va nghieh chieu vdi Thu nhap rdng cua hd nudi torn. Trong 04 ye'u to' dau vao nay, thi Chi phi thiic an la ye'u to' dau vao cd tac dgng nhieu nhat den Nang sua't va Thu nhap rong ctia ho. Dd'i vdi cac ho chpn nudi tom TCT se cd nang sua't va thu nhap rong nhieu hdn cac hd chon nudi torn sii l^n lifdt la 133,2 kg/cdng va 29 trieu/cong.
Mat khac ta thay, cac ty le GO/cdng, Ml/
cdng, NB/c6ng, GO/C, MI/C. NB/C va PRC/TC ciia con (dm TCT deu cao hdn con tdm su
Thifc techo tha'y, hien nay, ngu'di dan
\ung ven bien dang cd xu hu'dng chuyen sang nudi con tdm TCT, Day la hifdng di phii hdp vdi muc iieu phat tnen nghe nuoi tdm ciia tinh Ben Tre den nam 2020.D
T.AI LIKL TIL\M KH.VO
1. L B \ [) linh Ben Tre (2010-2015) Bdo t do tinh liinh thue hien ke hoach vd phdl trien kehoacli kmh le - vd hii eiia UBM) linh Ben Tie lif nam 2010 den nam 2015
2. Cue Thdng ke tinh Ben Tre (2010-2015), Niem ^idm Thoiw ke linh Ben Tre cdc nam 2010, 2011. 2012. 2013.2014. 2015. Nxh Tho'ng ke
3- Dmh Phi Hd (2012). Phuong phdp Nglden cifu dinh hfoii'.^ - Nhifng w^hien cifu thifc tihi lumg kmh le phai tnen - ndns n^jhiip. Nxb Phtftfiig Ddng
4 \ u Dinh Thang. Ngu>cn Viet Trung (2(")()5). Giiio irinh Kmh li'thii^ sdn. N\b Lao ddng - Xa hoi
^ Le Xuan ,Sinh (2(I()5| Cidn trmh kmh tethiiv sdn. N\b Dai hoe Can Thd
6 Le 1 hi Phitong Nhii, Difdng Van Ni va Tran Ngoc H:ii (2014). Phan tich khia canh ky ihuai
\ a tai ehinh eua mo hinh nudi tom sii (Pcnaeus Monodon 1 tham eanh d Sdc Trang. Bae Lieu VLI CJ
\iaii. hip i In khoa hoc - Tnrdng Dai hoc Can Tho. chu\en dc ihtiv san 2014(2). tr.l 14-i22 Nguxen Quoc Xghi. Bin Van Trmh. [Iu\uh Minh Tru\en (2010) Xh.in tdanh htfdng den
huan nil nang MLU
Iwc vd Cim'.i nghe. k\ 2. I !•
S Hu\nhlhiTu'i2()(l(M ktu eua cniojlovacin \a Im
^d04/2(Hl(^
om su cua nong lin d iinh Tra Vinh 2008-2009. Tap < /;/ Phdl I.
2010.11-53-57 Khao sat tinh hin:
i/ohdonc Iroiiii id
., kiwo sd dung liuin'c - hda cha'
1 sii. Tap ehi Khoa hoc -
rong nudi tdm \a sit ton ifdii^!; Dai hoc Can Thd.