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An investigation of scientific and indigenous weather forecasting for improved decision-making by farmers.

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The research obtained in this thesis was completed under the discipline of Geography, Faculty of Agriculture, Earth and Environment, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg Campus, South Africa. Their words have been paraphrased, but the general information attributed to them has been given;.

INTRODUCTION

  • Rationale of the Study
  • Conceptual Framework
  • Hypothesis
  • Objectives
  • Thesis Outline

Many older farmers possess a higher degree of local knowledge compared to younger farmers (Elia et al., 2014). Therefore, community elders remain the primary custodians of indigenous knowledge (Mahoo et al., 2015).

Literature Review

Introduction

The effect of climate change on agriculture is of great importance due to the increase in population and the demand for food. Scientific knowledge that is used globally to adapt to the effects of climate change is often not widely used by rural farmers who lack resources, finance and education (Zuma-Netshiukhwi, 2013).

Climate change in rural agricultural communities

Farmers' perceptions of climate change are also dependent on their age and therefore their experience. Data collected in the Free State in South Africa identified perceptions of climate change and climate variability in a rural farming community (Gandure, 2013).

Indigenous Weather Forecasting

Indigenous knowledge is important as it provides a means to solve everyday problems for local communities (Tella, 2007). Indigenous knowledge also has the ability to understand, adapt and counter climate change (Gomez-Baggethun; 2013, Tella, 2007).

Scientific Weather Forecasting

Like the rest of the world, these people experienced the negative effects of climate change. The Gamo community began to use the effects of climate change as a means of understanding deforestation and its direct effects on them.

Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge Integration

As a result, it is difficult to incorporate indigenous knowledge into policies, international systems and practices (Sillitoe, 2009). Indigenous knowledge was found to be more accepted by the youth of a community, as they would have been educated about it in schools and universities. As a result, the communication of indigenous knowledge is complicated due to the combination of tacit local knowledge and factual scientific knowledge.

Reports on scientific weather forecasting are thought to be complex and often contradict each other (Raymond. 2013; Sillitoe, 2009). Rather, farmers are left more confused than when they started and therefore use the indigenous knowledge they are used to. To effectively combine indigenous and scientific knowledge, indigenous information must be properly disaggregated (Sraku-Lartey, 2014; Raymond, 2013).

Researchers and users of indigenous knowledge need to develop a sense of organization and structure in order to use it usefully. Information and communication technologies can help capture, store, disseminate and promote indigenous knowledge. The integration process must be flexible to accommodate the dynamic nature of indigenous knowledge.

Conclusion

Draft climate change adaptation and mitigation plan for the South African agriculture and forestry sector. Determinants of farmers' choice of climate change adaptation methods in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Farmers' perceptions of climate change adaptation and water stress in a South African rural community.

Understanding farmers' perceptions and adaptations to climate change and variability: the case of the Limpopo Basin, South Africa. Some aspects of agricultural vulnerability to climate change in the KwaZulu-Natal Midlands, South Africa: A systematic review. The use of indigenous knowledge in weather and climate forecasting in Mahenge and Ismani Wards, Tanzania.

The role of indigenous knowledge in climate change adaptation strategies: A study with special reference to North-West India. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Farmers' use of traditional weather/climate knowledge in the South West Free State of South Africa:.

Rural Farmers’ Perceptions on Climate Change

  • Introduction
  • Materials and Methods
    • Study Area
    • Data Collection and Analysis
  • Results
    • Socio-economic characteristics of the respondents
    • Farmers Perceptions on Climate Change over the past 10 years
    • Climate information and variability
  • Discussion
  • Conclusion

Climate change is therefore intrinsically and directly linked to world food security. 20% and 12% of respondents confirmed that declining agricultural yields and erosion respectively have been the result of climate change. Twelve percent of respondents highlighted other impacts of climate change on agriculture, such as severe storms, inconsistent weather, flooding and inconsistent crop growth.

Six percent of respondents stated that agriculture has not been affected by climate change. The results in Table 3.2 show that 39% of respondents believe that the non-agricultural environment has been unaffected by climate change. About a fifth of respondents highlighted a decrease in grazing land for their livestock.

59 percent of respondents need a combination of different climate information for agriculture to take place (Figure 3.6; P  0.05). Twenty-five percent of respondents mentioned climate information that was less important for agriculture. 38 percent of rural households in uMshwathi Municipality are headed by women (StatsSA, 2011).

Figure 3.1 Percentage of male to female respondents
Figure 3.1 Percentage of male to female respondents

An Assessment of the Strengths and Weaknesses of Indigenous and Scientific

Introduction

Graaff et al., (2009) highlight the importance of indigenous knowledge and say that it has been a survival mechanism for ages. Indigenous knowledge can be roughly defined as “the knowledge that an indigenous (local) community accumulates over generations of living in a particular environment” (Graaff et al., 2009). Indigenous knowledge can be used as a tool to adapt to the changes in daily climate and weather.

Considering this, indigenous knowledge is holistic and requires different methods of dissemination as required by rural communities. Indigenous knowledge is preserved in the minds of elderly farmers and residents of the communities in which it is used. Indigenous knowledge is passed down from generation to generation and thus the culture of the community.

Given the above reasons why indigenous knowledge is important, there are many reasons why indigenous knowledge is not always preferred. According to Zuma-Netshiukhwi (2013), indigenous knowledge is based on culture and is different for individual cultures. Indigenous knowledge has the notion that scientific information is false and cannot be trusted (Zuma-Netshiukhwi, 2013).

Materials and Methods

  • Study Area
  • Data Collection and Analysis

As a result, scientific knowledge is transferred in just a few minutes on television or radio. By integrating local and scientific information, rural farmers will have a comprehensive approach to improve their agricultural practices. It is emphasized that if knowledge is not effectively integrated, many interested and affected parties, stakeholders and locals will question the validity and validation of the results (Raymond, 2010).

The process, methods and outputs of the integration should be analyzed to best benefit the end users. The survey also required participants to be between 20 and 100 years old to ensure they had a good understanding of the area, farming, local traditions and history. Key informant participants included local business owners, counselors, community leaders, nurses, teachers and principals, and local stakeholders.

Results

Indigenous knowledge has been used by 73% of the Swayimane community for as long as they can remember (Figure 4.2). Seven percent and 6% of respondents noted that indigenous knowledge has been applied in the past 20-30 years and 100 years, respectively. About 40% of respondents have not used IKS or have used indigenous knowledge about rainfall to adapt to climate change (Figure 4.4).

52 Forty-five of the respondents stated that indigenous knowledge is useful as it guides all their agricultural practices (Figure 4.6; P  0.05).). Forty-six percent of respondents relied on word of mouth to communicate climate conditions and information. Twenty-seven percent of respondents said that radio and television were more reliable than any other medium of climate dissemination (Figure 4.11).

Nine percent of respondents indicated that there were no external factors that influenced their decision-making. Seventeen percent of farmers said they cannot predict seasonal rains, which contributes to the inaccuracy. Data showed that 38% of residents assured that this would improve all agricultural practices (Figure 4.14).

Figure 4.2 Time frames within which indigenous knowledge has been used
Figure 4.2 Time frames within which indigenous knowledge has been used

Discussion

  • Predictions
  • Adaptation
  • Indigenous Knowledge Indicators
  • Seasonal Predictions and Agricultural Decision-making
  • Usefulness of Indigenous Knowledge
  • Climatic Information for Crop Production
  • Advantages of Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge
  • Disadvantages of Indigenous and Scientific Knowledge
  • Advantages of Knowledge Integration

As a result, indigenous knowledge is used as a means of preserving crops and predicting seasonal changes. Forty-five percent of Swaimane farmers said that indigenous knowledge is very useful in understanding the effects of climate change. As indigenous knowledge is critical to crop production, certain information is needed on a daily basis.

According to the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) (2016), indigenous peoples of the world have used local indigenous knowledge to adapt to changing environments for millennia. Contrary to the fact that many of the local farmers can use indigenous knowledge to predict seasonal changes and rainfall activities during the season, other locals believed that indigenous knowledge cannot predict seasonal rainfall. Climate change has over generations made it difficult for farmers who rely on indigenous knowledge to adapt to the effects of changing weather and make agricultural decisions.

Given that connectivity is essential for development and adaptation to climate change, indigenous knowledge must be thoroughly managed. It should define the role of indigenous knowledge stakeholders and other involved groups. Solutions to problems faced by farmers can be solved using innovative combinations of scientific and indigenous knowledge.

Conclusion

Indigenous knowledge and responses to climate change: What can we learn from these to deal with the current climate crisis.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Conclusions

72 Integrating scientific seasonal forecasting with indigenous knowledge to predict seasonal changes can help farmers increase their crop yields. Indigenous knowledge is primarily documented in scientific journals or stored in local museums and archives. Collaboration between indigenous knowledge and scientific knowledge should take place to document the qualitative aspect of weather forecasting.

The study recognizes the importance of indigenous knowledge systems and practices for rural African and South African villages as one of the main sources of seasonal information. I aim to understand the challenges and advantages of indigenous knowledge and scientific knowledge individually in order to assist farmers' decision making. Which local knowledge indicators are used for seasonal forecasting, in which season and what is the meaning of each indicator.

How can the limitations mentioned regarding indigenous knowledge be changed or improved to better assist decision-making. How can the limitations mentioned regarding scientific knowledge be changed or improved to better help decision-making. What are the benefits of using/combining both scientific and indigenous knowledge to better inform decision making.

Gambar

Figure 3.1 Percentage of male to female respondents
Figure 3.3 Percentages of Male and Female respondents per Age Group
Figure 3.4 Main subsistence crops planted by the respondents
Table 3.2 Effects of Climate Change on the non-Agricultural environment  Effects  of  Climate  Change  on  the  non-Agriculture
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Referensi

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x LIST OF FIGURES Figure 4.1: Respondents’ position in the business 57 Figure 4.2: Respondents’ years of experience 58 Figure 4.3: Respondents’ highest level of education 59