If the growth of employment in the capitalist sector falls, in absolute terms, short of the growth of the labor force', the increased figures are necessarily absorbed in the subsistence sector. For most of the analysis, these differences correspond, in the sense that the differences in the dividing lines are insignificant. A crude but better indicator of the increase in labor supply is provided by the numbers in the 15-64 age group.
The precise relationship – in the form of age-specific activity rates – is shown for 1970 in Table 2. 'Adjusted' census data are also collected, estimated on the assumption that all participants in the labor force not included in the censuses were employed in non-agricultural activities. However, they indicate percentage growth in African non-farm employment (3.8% experienced in the 1960s and 4.5% projected for the current programming period) that is significantly higher than the corresponding percentage growth rates of the African labor force.
This is done on the assumption that the differences represent women on the reserve who. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the employment trends in capitalist agriculture qpd for survival. In urban areas registration evasion is likely to be particularly high among the unemployed.
It is hard to imagine that the size of the inactive labor force in the home countries is seriously underestimated for this reason.
30 - Table 12
The figures in brackets indicate the annual percentage rates of change between flanking years
The de facto African male population of the Hanelarrls is also shavn, for each age group, as a proportion of the African male population of South Africa. In 1970, however, adult men made up a smaller proportion of the total, and the sex ratio was also lOl.,er in all age groups above the age of 30. This indicates that during the second decade the pool of adults in the labor force the Haneland has been reduced relative to the rest of the Haneland population, either due to economic forces or due to strict immigration controls on women and children.
She estimated the number of )\£rica male "te:nporary" migrants from rural South Africa, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of Slm\ of rural African male adults plus migrants. One difficulty is illustrated by the work of Tanlinson Carrnission, who estimated African Incans from the Hanelands in 1950/1 at R33.4 million using "conventional". This must be compared with a corresponding growth rate in the rural part of the Hanelands of 4.6% per year, if the census data are not corrected for underreporting, or of 3.0% per year.
As early as 1932, the domestic economic commission noted the constant growing impoverishment of reserves, the growing lack of land and the same landlessness.!. The Council for Social and Economic Planning concluded in 1946 that "in view of the primitive method of agriculture and stock-raising still practiced by most of the natives, many, if not most, reserves are overpopulated." The Y Tanlinson Carmission predicted that after complete implementation of the Land Act of 1936 could support 357,000 families in full-time farming on reserves with a gross annual 34 "underemployed" were not working at the time of the survey, nor had they worked in the past 4 months.
The "underemployed" were therefore completely unemployed at the time of the survey and had been employed. The Native Reserves and their Place in the Econ~ of the Union of South Africa, 1946, p.56. We assume that either one or two of the members of the postulated six-member farming family are economically active.
This is also true for the percentage rate between 1951 and 1970, although estimates are divided on the movement of the franc rate from 1960 to 1970. Employment was higher in the last year of the series than in the first; there is. To assess the sensitivity of the results to farm employment levels, an optimistic forecast (projection B) . is also shown in the figure.
D.F. latour force
Real profits in lTIl.nlng remained: roughly constant francs 1951 to 1971., as they had actually been since 1911. The use of immigrant labor, the efficient organization of recruiting industry, and its monopolistic behavior to .. prevent competition between mines in times of labor shortages no doubt help to explain the relatively low level and stability, until recently, of real mining wages. If underemployment on the reserves has increased, then - it could be argued - the mining industry should have been able to recruit more South Africans. In 1972, Malawi and Mozambique together accounted for no less than 53% of African employment in gold.
The 1970 census shows the number of African males by age group who were in the Hanelands on census night. The results are sensitive to the minimum length of rest period assumed, especially in the age groups suitable for work in mining. One way to help reconcile the reduced supply of nationals to the mines with growing underemployment on the reserves is to be square.
I Francis 'Wilson, 'Unresolved issues in the South African economy: labour', South African Journal of Economics, December 1975, p.528. Poverty date line studies of farm labor are non-existent or rare, but a cursory study by the Natal Agricultural Union claims that the cash requirement of an African farm family to meet the P .D.L. may be less than half that of an urban family.Y The choice between staying employed on the farm or taking a job in town depends on many more factors than actual income, e.g. security, ability to live with your family, access to education, the nature of the work and industrial relations. Deficit.~l a wage lower than the equilibrium wage but, in the absence ,. of perfectly competitive labor markets, theory cannot predict wages. in the labor-short regions is likely to be higher or lower than average~. The regional relationship between deficits and wage levels was investigated by the S.A.A.U. estimates of percentage deficits by n,c.qion in 1969 and the agricultural census est:i.rrJ:3.tes of Africa average regular earnings in cash and goods for the same 34 regions in 1969. relationship was found.
We can hypothesize that wages are the ONLY where the opportunity cost of farm labor is lowest, Let. the greater the i.rrm:>pportunity of work in a demand, the only ones are regional profits. The Natal sugar industry relies heavily on the labor of Pondo immigrants for cane-cutting: for cultural or other reasons cane-cutting is not a job that Zulu men will accept. Pondo men also have an opportunity to migrate to the mines. A somewhat different view of the imminent degree of competition in the labor market was that taken by the Natal Agricultural Union in a statement on labor policy in 1973.
Waren who lead families on reserves may not have other opportunities for paid employment. An important reason must be found in the precarious financial condition of the gold mine. There are two potential non-technical barriers to extensive mechanization in gold and coal mining.
For example, unskilled and semi-skilled labor – traditionally the migrant workforce – accounts for 70% of able-bodied workers in non-mechanized mines, but less than 20% of workers in capital-intensive surface mines. has an incentive to push for the permanent settlement of a greater proportion of South African miners, and to pay these workers enough to support their families in town conditions. The potential for mechanization in South African agriculture, as suggested by the examples from the sugar and oil industries, is confirmed in the literature.
