SADC’s Climate Risks and trends
Alize le Roux, African Futures and Innovation
Calculating the cost of climate disasters
Alize le Roux, African Futures and Innovation
© Institute for Security Studies
Calculating the costs of climate disasters
Disaster
Globally
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Drought Extreme temperature Flood Storm Wildfire
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Southern Africa
Southern Africa increased exposure: a warning!
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Flooding disasters
© Institute for Security Studies
Flooding and population growth: Observed
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Flood Population 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Flood)
354 million
127 million
SA’s historical disasters record
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Drought Extreme temperature
Flood Storm Wildfire
R billion
Number of disasters
Recorded disasters Sum of total damages (R billion)
© Institute for Security Studies
Look ahead: What increases risk?
Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense with
climate change.
Growing & urbanising population will continue to place pressure on infrastructure
& service delivery.
Municipalities are already under tremendous pressures to
address complex urban challenges.
CSIR. 2019. Green Book
2050 Settlements subjected to a range of
multiple pressures
© Institute for Security Studies
What can we do?
Mitigation
1. Energy policies 2. Sustainable
practices
3. Land-use policies
Adaptation
1. Reduce exposure 2. Build resilience and
reduce
vulnerability
CSIR. 2019. Green Book
www.issafrica.org
@ issafrica
Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf)
ASSAf Research Repository http://research.assaf.org.za/
B. Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf) Events G. Presidential Roundtable Series
