The study used a combination of cutting-edge, innovative approaches to scenario planning as a strategic planning tool, along with quantitative research to determine the perceptions of industry professionals in order to chart a course for the future of the cinema exhibition industry in South Africa. The main conclusions in this paper are that scenario planning can be used to plan for a profitable future in the cinema exhibition industry in South Africa due to the emphasis the technique places on the inherent uncertainty in the future and the degree of impact they have external factors. for the future of this industry.
MOTIVATION FOR THE STUDY
Motivation
Overall problem statement
Sub-problems
This has brought the profitability and sustainability of the cinema exhibition industry into question. Firsdy, providing an overview of the state of the cinema exhibition industry in South Africa paying particular attention to the key factors driving change in the industry.
The Research Method .1 The research strategy
- Empirical evidence
- Sample size
- Survey interpretation
As the research will focus on determining the factors that influence film exhibition in South Africa, a case study method will be used. The research method chosen for the research will therefore be multi-method research which will be carried out in the realism paradigm, using the case study method.
The realism paradigm
A larger sample of cinema goers should be studied and this could be part of further research. In this research, there is a lot of emphasis on how the questionnaire is completed and who is being questioned, taking into account the sample size and the sensitivities that are part of that sample (some participants are business competitors of the interviewer).
The multi method research
Rationale for employing a combination of the two methods
Triangulation
The research will use the principles of the realist paradigm and its emphasis on wider social forces, structures or processes that influence and possibly constrain the nature of people's views and behaviors and that people's behavior (film patronage) cannot legitimately be studied through generalizations similar to physical and natural scientists. The research involves the use of qualitative methods to formulate a proposition (factors likely to influence cinema attendance in South Africa, gathered through informal interviews and discussions with industry players and a review of historical data) and the use of quantitative methods (questionnaire) to test this proposition.
Importance of the research
Once the factors have been determined, a series of scenarios will be created based on the identified factors and how they are likely to affect the cinema industry today and in the future. The research will also come up with recommendations that are important in addressing the factors driving change in this industry and that can be used to ensure that the industry remains relevant and from which all stakeholders can get a reasonable return. .
Limitations of the research
Accuracy of information
Validation of planning tool
The factors to be used in the scenario generating phase of the research are given. Scenario planning is included in this research as the chosen strategic planning tool because of the emphasis the tool places on the factors driving change in the motion picture exhibition industry.
YOUTH MARKET
Industry players
Cinemark is a trade association that monitors movie attendance for the four largest exhibitors in the industry. According to industry figures from Cinemark, the Ster Kinekor cinemas and the Nu Metro Theaters are the two largest competitors in the sector, with a combined market share of 90%.
The nature of the film industry Studios business model
All companies involved in the film industry were given an exclusivity period before the films moved to the next window. According to the National Association of Theater Owners (NATO), the window period between theatrical sales and DVD/rental sales has gone from an average of 5 months and 13 days in 2000 to an average of 4 months and 16 days in late 2005. This has put pressure on the ability of cinema exhibitors to fully exploit films.
Exhibitors' business model
There is a fine line between correcting that embedding cinema ads into the entire cinema experience and extending commercials to the point that they become a hindrance to seeing a movie in the cinema. Exhibitors should be careful not to be too greedy for revenue to the extent that they alienate their customers by making their ads too long.
Challenges facing the cinema exhibition industry
In the past, one of the draw cards for going to the cinema was the big screen, sound quality and picture clarity as well as the social experience. This is even more important in light of the various leisure options available to consumers.
Industry analysis
The techniques that have been determined to be useful in this paper based on the above are: Porter's Five Forces Model for analyzing industries which integrates industry structure analysis, competitor analysis and industry development analysis, the SWOT analysis and the business cycle theory. . The driving forces shape the future of the industry and are the basis for an alternative strategic planning tool such as scenario planning to be used.
Porter's Five Forces model
For consumers, there are small switching costs associated with switching to the newcomer, provided that the offer is at the same level as that of the existing operators. With the above, the exhibitors also have significant influence on the activities of the distributors.
The business cycle
The cinema exhibition industry is in the maturity stage of the classic product life cycle (cinema attendance has been stagnant for the past four years). A useful planning framework must be able to accommodate scenario inputs arising from an analysis of the external environment.
Development of the framework
According to the researcher, this process is flawed because of the little attention it pays to the external environment and the factors that drive change in that environment. Most types of options-based planning address physical and financial elements.
SCENARIO PLANNING AS A TOOL T O PLAN FOR A PROFITABLE FUTURE
Ten process pitfalls
Failure to secure top management support – top management should be involved in the scenario process from early on. Failure to do so leads to anxiety among line management about its suitability and practicality for the existing business environment.
Ten content pitfalls
For the above mentioned pitfalls, the reasons why scenario planning has not used more strategic planning tool, and in some cases lacks credibility, is not about the effectiveness, relevance and applicability of the planning tool, but rather the execution of the planning tool. Scenario planning is therefore still relevant, especially in the context of defining factors influencing an industry such as film exhibition in South Africa, which is characterized by a constantly changing environment driven by technological, market and consumer changes.
The rationalist school of thought
Processual, allows managers to intervene in the process to improve the chances of success in the future.
The evolutionary school of thought
This theory disempowers managers because it means that managers are effectively unable to influence any real difference in the future of their respective organizations. If managers are not able to actively pursue a competitive position for their company, then the very idea of strategy making is flawed according to the evolutionary school of thought.
The processual school of thought
If nothing was predictable why even strategize since there is no way to predict what the future holds. These trends should form part of the basis for which decisions are made about the future.
Scenario planning in action
An example of this is the observation that ice cream/frozen yogurt retailers do particularly better when their operations are in close proximity to a cinema industry. Cinema exhibitors may look at offering ice cream as part of their candy lineup, as consumers who watch movies seem to enjoy ice cream as part of their outing.
- Generative Scenario b a s e d planning
- Adaptive scenario based planning
It is difficult to know for sure that the business idea would be strong in the future. The other alternative would be that the business idea is weak and has no future.
The problem and the timeframe
The answer could be that the business idea is strong and that there is a need to exploit this winning formula. Adaptive scenario planning would help alleviate this doubt by constantly asking, "could something go wrong with the existing business idea?".
The forces that are driving the market
In summary, the difference between generative and adaptive scenario planning is that the generative process takes a broad view of ways to improve and/or change the competency system of an existing business idea (exploring the environment leading to new and unique strategic insights). ) and the adaptation process has a limited view of the possible scenarios that could be planned, but will exhaust the relevance of the competence system based on these scenarios (evaluation and adaptation of the organization's business idea). Fleisher & Bensoussan (2003) further argue that the most important purpose of macroenvironmental analysis is to arm decision makers with accurate and objective predictions of important trends in environmental factors.
Certainties and uncertainties
The conclusion of the paper was that the respondents showed a very favorable attitude towards strategic planning, which was considered important by the companies in the sample. What might be of particular interest to cinematographers is the importance of digital projection and sound quality.
RELATED TECHNIQUES
- Industry foresight as a strategic planning tool
- The difference between industry foresight and scenario planning
- Forecasting as a strategic planning tool
- The difference between forecasting and scenario planning
How should the interface between the customer and the organization be reconfigured in the future. Scenario-based planning is based on the fact that the future is not predictable and contains uncertainties.
THE APPROPRIATENESS OF SCENARIOS AND SCENARIO PLANNING
From the literature survey, the most appropriate strategic planning technique, namely scenario planning, was recognized, and the best research method for the full implementation of scenario planning was identified. Ogilvy and Schwartz's (2002) approach to applying the scenario planning technique was considered appropriate to achieve the research objectives and answer all the critical research questions.
CONCLUSION
- Literature and Electronic Data Survey (Secondary Data Collection)
- Primary Data collection
- Pilot Study
- Questionnaire
- Sample selection
The research will need to provide insight into the state of the film exhibition industry in South Africa by identifying the key factors driving change in the industry. T he less stable performance of the industry in the form of stagnant/declining cinema attendance.
LIMITATIONS IN DATA COLLECTION
The questionnaire results for questions 1.5 and 1.6 in the demographic profile section of the questionnaire may be misleading. Of the 75 cinema visitors, 71 clients (94.7%) answered the question about the number of years working in the industry.
Cinema exhibitors can better meet consumer needs, but with high investment costs. Cinema exhibitors can create niche markets for themselves by providing content that is targeted to customers.
The renovation of traditional cinemas. Cinemas remain the pre- ferred way to watch film
AREAS OF FUTURE RESEARCH
Should the core offering still consist of film screenings or should film screening be part of a much larger entertainment offering? Are multiplexes (many cinema halls in one location) still relevant, or should the number of cinema halls be reduced and the spaces better utilized for other entertainment spaces, e.g.
PERMISSION T O CONDUCT RESEARCH
I am researching the factors that influence film exhibitions in South Africa with the aim of finding solutions to the problem of stagnant or declining cinema attendances. I give permission for my answers to this questionnaire to be used for research purposes provided that my identity is not disclosed in the published records of the research.
RESEARCH INSTRUMENTS THE QUESTIONNAIRE
The gender (types of movies watched by gender) of cinema goers is a major determinant of cinema attendance in South Africa. Movie placement by cinema (product placement) is a factor in the decline of cinema attendance in South Africa.
Section B
SIGNIFICANCE TABLES
Region Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Western Cape Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Western Cape Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Western Cape Gauteng Gauteng. Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Western Cape Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Western Cape Gauteng Western Cape Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Gauteng Western Cape Western Cape Gauteng.
QUESTIONNAIRE RESULTS SPLIT RANKED FROM MOST SIGNIFI- CANT
Film genres such as Bollywood have the potential to grow cinema attendance in South Africa. Cinema advertising (trailers and commercials) is a departure from the cinema experience in South Africa.
ETHICAL CLEARANCE
Cohen L(1991). Verhandeling "Strategic Uncertainty in the Computer Industry Strategy Under Uncertainty, Harvard Business Review on Managing Uncertainty, Boston, Harvard Business School Press, no 54,ppl-32. Gilmore FF en Brandenburg RG/Anatomy of corporate planning' Harvard Business Review, vol 40, no 6, November -Desember 1962, pp61 -69.
