ABSTRACT: The history of commercial agriculture was developed due to the growth of agricultural area within the urban fringe to support urban social activities since the green revolution era. The agriculture history also proves

URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND ITS IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE

2. METHOD.

The illustration of the method was illustrated in Figure 2 and explained as follow:

Basically, the method consist of three steps of analysis, first employed the remote sensing data for spatial input assessment, second is the statistical assessment and the third is the result assessment.

The first step assessed the multi date remote sensing data, i.e Landsat MSS 1976 and Landsat 8 Oli 2013 to illustrate the urban changes (Fig. 3). Hybrid classification has been employed in this process, whereas the Iso data (unsupervised Class method) was used as the basic classified data and supervised method was used for filling up the miss-classified ones. The change detection of two classified images was employed afterward to illustrate the changes classes. Focus of this classification processes is only for two classes, i.e urban, rural and forest/vegetation areas whereas the rural area supposes to be the agricultural land. The statistical data was used for enhancing the spatial data derive from remote sensing assessment due to the miss-classification that will lead to the false spatial information.

Fig.1. The Study Area, Jakarta – The capital of Indonesia

Figure 2. Method Scheme

Fig. 3 Remote sensing data input

The second step was the process of calculating the agricultural product and economic lost due the land conversion.

In this case EOP (effect on Production) method can be applied for economic assessment. Meanwhile the available consumption for the local population has also been calculated to illustrate the people need for food compare with its availability. Finally, the last step was the result assessment for determining the impact of agriculture land conversion to the food security of the Jakarta inhabitants and recommendation to be done for the future of food security program.

3. RESULT AND DISCUSSION:

3.1. Jakarta Population growth

Problem of land conversion is commonly derived from the population growth either natural or caused by urbanization. As the center for national government, industrial and business, Jakarta faces the massive urbanization, concretes and infrastructure development. The four decades statistical data of Jakarta Population growth indicate the increasing numbers of population since 1961, even though the trend was decreasing. The number of population was increasing from 2.9 million in 1961 to 9,932,063 in 2012 in contrast to the population growth rate that tend to decrease from 4.58 % (1961- 1971) to 1.67 % (2000 – 2012) ( see Figure 4). The total population in Jakarta is up to 10,075,300 in 2014 (BPS, 2014)

The decreasing trend of Jakarta population supposed to be related to the higher price of parcel of land in Jakarta.

This condition makes the urbanization trend shift to the satellite city around Jakarta such as Bogor, Tangerang and Bekasi. However, the decreasing of population growth is not linearly related to the urban growth. The massive land conversion occurred in almost part of Jakarta fringe for office buildings, industries, business center, transportation infrastructure, apartments and other commercials buildings. Jakarta as the national central government, industrial and business center need more land to develop. As the reason, the land conversion from residential, agriculture land and other green area to business and industrial matters occur in almost part of Jakarta. Figure 5 and 6 illustrates the massive urban development in Jakarta

Fig.4. Jakarta Population growth from1961 to 2012 (SLHD DKI, 2012)

Fig.5 Urban development in Jakarta (source: twicsy.com)

3.2. Agricultural Land Conversion

As Von Thünen theory, Jakarta used to be the city surrounded by agriculture lands, derived from paddy field, farm lands (crops, horticulture, cattle) and orchards. The rural area nearby Jakarta used to be the ring of agricultural area where the rice from paddy fields can be found around Ciputat, Pondok Gede (South, west and east Jakarta), fruits from orchards such as in Pasar minggu and Cililitan area (South and east Jakarta) and so does farm products, vegetables and other horticulture products. Meanwhile The North of Jakarta rural area was the swamp area which become the center for fisheries products (Fig. 7a). The city planning seems still maintain the green as the ring of the built up city.

Eventhough the previous Jakarta Government has planned a green city concept (Fig 7 (2)), the planning cannot be longer running well since the massive urbanization and the city development occurred. As the result the Jakarta territory was expanded from 180 km

²

in 1965 to 662.33 km

²

in 2014 (Pemda DKI, 1966 and BPS Provinsi DKI Jakarta 2014).

The analysis of remote sensing data indicates the urban development in contrast to the decreasing numbers of agricultural lands (See Fig. 8) as it also can be seen in Fig 6. In this study, we assumed the rural area within the Jakarta peripheral was the area of agriculture activities.

Fig 8a indicates the rural area may support food for Jakarta inhabitants due to the existing agricultural activities within the Jakarta fringe. Meanwhile Fig 8b indicates the majority of agricultural land area in Jakarta has been changed, mainly caused by population growth, increasing of social activities and the massive modernization of the urban area. Fig 8c illustrates the changes between two date imageries, whereas black and green indicate the no change area.

Fig.6 Urban development in Jakarta Form Satellite imageries (Kushardono, 2014)

Fig.7 The City development of Jakarta (1) and The Jakarta City Planning (2) (Pemda DKI, 1966)

Those figures illustrates the majority of Jakarta peripheral has been converted to non- agricultural sectors. The result indicates that 64 % of Jakarta peripheral area or 447.74 km

²

of that area has been converted to urban social economic purposes. Visually, the result can prove the spatial trend of the agricultural or rural area conversion but the number of agricultural land conversion using this remote sensing analysis still become a dispute since there is differences between the result of remote sensing assessment and the statistical data. The statistical data indicates that the Jakarta has been developed as much as 322.3 km

²

since 1976. The mixed pixels calculation from area outside of Jakarta territory or misclassified classes may become the reasons for this higher value in compare with the statistical data.

Either the study did not included the accuracy assessment, the difficulties in finding the old land cover maps for accuracy assessment processes or the differences in spatial resolution of MSS and Landsat 8 OLI and the method that used the unsupervised classification as the basic data may become the source of the errors in classification and change detection processes. The method which consider the supervised classification method as the basic of the hybrid classification process or the ancillary data as the basic of classification process should be taken into account in the next study to get a better accurate information. However, the result are able to give preliminary information regarding the spatial information location, area and the trend of the land conversion within the rural area

3.3 Assessment of Agricultural land conversion

Despite the problems of accuracy, this study wants to prove that the remote sensing data, either manually or digitally analysis processes can become the input for further assessment for better management purposes. Both of data can be further assessed to indicate the loss of agricultural products, and the lack of food supply to meet the Jakarta inhabitant consumption. With the assumption that (a) concerning rice as the staple foods, (b) the majority of the agriculture area are paddy field, (c) rice consuming is about of 0,54 kg/person/day and rice product is about 5 – 6 ton/ha/harvested (Ustriyana, 2014; Ihsan, 2013), the data below indicate the self-sufficiency for food is not occurred in Jakarta (see Table 1). Ideally, Jakarta need 2,118,825 ton/year to support its inhabitants. However, due to the agricultural land conversion, Jakarta should consider about the lack of 1,318,599 ton/year of rice stock. It means Jakarta should imported or regionally transferred the lack of rice needed from nearby countries or provinces. With

(a) (b)

(c)

Fig. 8 Land conversion, (a) 1976, (b) 2014 and (c) Change detection

1976 – 2014

the highest numbers of population within the day times due to the commuters from Jakarta peripheral, the number of rice stock needed is increased. It is meant, the government of Jakarta should spent 7,528,876,875,000 IDR/year for 926,621 ton/year rice supply only. It can be compare with the previous condition when the population is not increasing and the agriculture land still available to support the city people food. At that time, Jakarta only need 188,226 ton/year to fulfill the food supply. The concept that has to be taken into account to solve the problems is, the food diversification, urban agriculture, regional food trading or limited food import, and the reconstruction of the rice product center in Java either in intensive or extensive (for outside Java island), maintain the existence agriculture land as the green area from any urban development.

Finally, this study indicates the role of remote sensing as an input data for food security analysis and management even though the result is not valid. Method for processing the accurate data should be taken into account, i.e accurate in situ data for land cover classification processes, availability of accurate data for hybrid classification processes, precise training area selection, information of the spectral library for agriculture land area, precise data combining in hybrid classification processes and the implementation of the accuracy assessment. Besides that, the accuracy of statistic data should also be taken into account, whereas the source of the data should be valid and the method of surveying or sampling method should also be considered as accurate. Indeed, the result of analysis has also assessed the impact of the agricultural land conversion, i.e (a) in the availability of the food stock, (b) increasing the monetary for imported food, (c) decreasing the income of local farmers, (d) increasing the labor needs in other sectors rather ten agriculture and (e) decreasing the passion of people to work in the agriculture sectors.

4. CONCLUSION:

Remote sensing has the important role for food management assessment. The spatial location, area and the trend

can be assessed using this data and will become an input to other management purposes. However, the process and

the method selection for deriving the data should be considered beforehand to gain a better result. Hybrid

classification is the best. However, the basic of method either unsupervised, supervised or ancillary data as the base

should be further studies, and So does the accuracy assessment. Indeed, The remote sensing data may become an

input for the agricultural land conversion impact, i.e (a) in the availability of the food stock, (b) increasing the

monetary for imported food, (c) decreasing the income of local farmers, (d) increasing the labor needs in other

sectors rather ten agriculture and (e) decreasing the passion of people to work in the agriculture sectors. These

impact concluded from the statistical analysis that using remote sensing data to predict the product, consumption

and the optional management option to solve the problem in food stock. Dealing with Jakarta analysis, it can be

seen that Jakarta must depend on food supply from regional or international. Other concept that can be assessed

besides those option are the food diversification, urban agriculture, regional food trading or limited food import,

and the reconstruction of the rice product center in Java either in intensive or extensive (for outside Java island),

and maintain the existence agriculture land as the green area from any urban development