4 Capturing the Direct and the Serendipitous Spillovers:
4.9 Notes
1. See Olsson (1987:26).
2. It should also be mentioned here that the Gripen spillover estimates in the next chapter for practical reasons exclude spillovers from the development of
122 4 Capturing the Direct and the Serendipitous Spillovers
Gripen-related weapons systems. Weapons development within Saab Bofors Dynamics, notably on guided missiles, is currently the subject of a separate inquiry.
3. This has in fact turned out to be a benefit for Gripen’s future and for export sales, since it slows the obscolesence rate of the aircraft considerably compared to competing aircraft. See further Technical Supplement S1.
4. They are France, Russia, the UK, the USA, and Sweden and perhaps China.
5. This objective is very clearly stated in the Norwegian Avropet til Rammeavtalen between the Norwegian Defense and Treasury Departments, signed Nov. 29, 2005, Pkt 2.1.
6. Now Saab Microwave Systems. While Ericsson has been unloading almost all military radio technology and focusing on its mobile telephone systems, Saab sold off its space business in 2008 to focus on activities with a common tech-nology platform with its military aircraft business.
7. See further Flygmotor, 1930–2005, Volvo Aero, Värnamo: Air Historic Research.
8. A project headed by Curt Nicolin, later CEO of ASEA and chairman of ABB, and of the Industrial Institute for Economic and Social Research (IUI) for many years.
9. See Mekanisten 1, 2008:16–18. The Dovern military jet engine still exists in modified versions, among other things as backup electrical generators for ships, hospitals, etc. Siemens acquired the business 2003 from ABB and is currently (SvD April 18, 2008) experiencing a booming demand for its turbines for steam-generated electrical power based on solar energy.
10. The civilian version of this engine (JT8D-200) is mounted on the back of all DC 9s. Learning to manufacture that engine was the beginning of Volvo Aero Engine Services (VAES) that for some time was a profitable business within VAC (see below).
11. The other three are Coor Service Management that Volvo Aero spun off as a separate company in 2000, Finnveden Power Train that took over VAC’s diesel activity in 2000 and Toltec Trestad, one of the world’s largest suppliers of spe-cialty tools for the tire industry.
12. See Eliasson (2009) and Eliasson (1995: Chaps. 12 and 13), and Sect. 4.7 below.
13. The first ejection seat in the world was developed by Saab already in the 1940s for the Saab J21 with a propeller engine mounted in the rear of the aircraft, pushing it forward. The ejection seat was necessary to catapult the pilot above the propeller.
14. The numbers are for the civilian version of the Viggen RM 8 engine, or the P&W JT8D-200 engine mounted on the back of all DC9s (Eliasson 1995:93f).
15. See Widfeldt and Fryklund (2005:79ff) and Eliasson (1995:94ff).
16. The same as a hydraulic machine. Its function decides whether it is called a pump or an engine.
17. On this Agrawal and Cockburn (2002) note that the establishment of a large, local R&D-intensive firm – what they call an “anchor tenant” – enhances local
industrial productivity by making local university research more likely to be absorbed by local industry. To this should be added the positive innovative influence of the advanced firm on the university, and a newly established uni-versity in particular, and on the entire local industrial climate.
18. This section on mobile telephony should logically be placed in the next chapter being more related to spillovers associated with the development of a Swedish centralized information and command system (STRIL 90), a forerunner of what has more recently been called a networked defense system, that began in the 1980s and to which the JAS 39 Gripen aircraft development belongs, than to earlier military aircraft projects (see further Sect. 5.2). However, from the point of view of systematic presentation it belongs here, to be followed by the Ericsson HP (EHPT) joint venture which is a clear Viggen spillover, and the Minilink, which is a commercialization for civilian mobile telephony of the military data communications technology associated with the Gripen project.
19. See Ericsson’s annual report for 1983. Nokia was perhaps also an exception.
Nokia’s business, however, is primarily in mobile terminals where Ericsson did not score a success. Nokia, in turn, still (2009) has to show its industrial prowess in mobile telephone systems (see further footnote 22 and below).
20. Sony Ericsson is owned by Ericsson and Sony (one half each). It has a small CHQ in London. Its center for mobile terminal development is in Lund, Sweden.
It employs 12,000 people, but is currently (2009) going through a crisis period, concentrating and shedding about 2000 people.
21. See Hulten and Möllerud (1993, 1995).
22. In Finland the DX digital switch was instrumental. The government owned electronics company Televa had developed radio telephone systems for the Finnish army. Nokia acquired Televa in 1981. See Bruun and Wallen (1999:49ff) and Stenbock (2001:86ff).
23. See Meurling and Jeans (1994).
24. This the French learned the hard way when German tanks coordinated by radio communications and crossing through neutral Belgium succeeded in invading the country in a few days. General Heinz Guerdian, the innovative promoter of the German panzerwaffe, however, had been forced for a long time to con-vince the traditional German generals of the merits of this new war technology (Barnett 1989: Chap. 19). It did not take long, however, for the Allies to come up with effective counter technologies.
25. It has to be remarked in passing that this is a nonanalytical competence the development of which presents specialized academic research and teaching environments with a disadvantage that cannot be overcome without changing the organization, the culture and end objectives of academe.
26. The same was the case with the US White House Report on National Critical Future Technologies published in March 1995 by the Office of Science and Technology, Executive Office of the President, to be discussed further in Sect. 5.1.
27. See further Sect. 5.9.3 and Technical Supplement S2. Spillovers from weapons development have not been included in the Gripen spillover multiplier estimate even though they have been presented as cases.
124 4 Capturing the Direct and the Serendipitous Spillovers
28. Saab engineers with systems experience have long been in demand in other industries, including Ericsson, where they have fetched higher salaries (Gustafsson and Lindvall 1978).
29. Cisco, however, argues that Ericsson and Cisco rather complement each other.
Cisco, for instance does not intend to enter the base station market (DI, Oct. 24, 2008).
30. Other acquisitions are Spanish Netspira (software) in June 2005); Norwegian Axxessit (connecting platforms) in June 2005, Swedish Netwise in June 2006, the latter to be better at connecting telephony and data transmission, US Entrisphere for fiber access in February 2007, Swedish Mobeon for Ip-based message services in March 2007, German LHWS (software for payment systems for three billion) in June 2007, Swedish Drutt Corp (mobile services platforms) in June 2007 and Spanish HyC for ip-tv consulting services in December 2007. The acquisitions of Marconi, Redback, and Entrisphere have been made to make Ericsson competitive in Alcatel-Lucent’s specialty adsl and fiber broadband equipment (DI, May 23, 2008). Altogether this adds up to 60 billion to compare with sales of defense electronics and office switches for 4.4 billion (SvD, September 23, 2008).
However also Nokia has been on a buying spree to add capacity to its ambition to develop terminals that are constantly accessed to Interent services (SvD, Oct. 3, 2009) and Cisco is offering to buy Norwegian Tandberg’s HD video activity as part of its ambition to enter the high quality end of video conferencing (DI, October 2, 2009).
31. That speeds up downloading of data far beyond Turbo-3G.
32. See Sharefkin’s (1983:300f) analysis of the controllability of complex dynami-cal systems, and energy systems in particular.
33. This section is presented in more detail in Eliasson (1998b).
34. Datasaabs historia, 1994, Linköping:Tema D2, 1994:6ff.
35. Using Microsoft as the supplier of the operating system. The first PC was intro-duced in 1977 by Apple.
36. Digital was acquired by Compaq 1998 that became the world’s largest PC maker. The new company merged in 2002 with HP.
37. CIS was founded when the Telub, Dotcom, and Enator activities within the Celsius group were merged. CIS became a subsidiary under Celsius AB in 1995.
38. In fact, the Linköping Technical University or Institute of Technology that it is also called, at the time were alone in offering the three academic specializa-tions: computer science, medical technology, and industrial economics.
125
While the previous chapter has been devoted to tracing the origin of spillovers that have already been identified, I now take on the more difficult task of looking ahead.
I will identify spillover cases originating in the JAS 39 Gripen multirole fighter aircraft development. While some JAS 39 Gripen spillover cases can be clearly identified and defined, others mix in with pre-Gripen aircraft technology development.
Ericsson’s digital mobile telephony, for instance, is an intermediate case. It origi-nated in Ericsson’s military radio technology, but has benefitted from the general development toward a networked defense from the early 1980s of which JAS 39 Gripen was the core capability.1 Many JAS 39 Gripen spillovers, furthermore, still have a long way to go to materialize in the form of “statistically visible” cases.
The JAS 39 Gripen aircraft is in many ways special. Its flexible physical design structure, extensive reliance for functionality on distributed digital electronics and extremely low-cost maintenance, or even “maintenance-free” design will guarantee a longer life than that of the Saab Viggen combat aircraft and, above all, have made modifications for export sales possible. This chapter still, however, will have to include a touch of speculative analysis.
There will also be a section of clear ex post character, namely the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen spillovers that failed to be commercialized, or were picked up by foreign subcontractors.
The life of the Swedish fourth generation multirole combat aircraft system JAS 39 Gripen is expected to cover more than half a century. Design of the aircraft platform began in 1980, the first prototype was flown in 1988, the first production aircraft was delivered in 1993 and redesigned and modernized versions of the air-craft are expected to still be in service by 2035, perhaps even by 2045. The versions then flying will look quite similar to the first aircraft delivered in the 1990s, but they are entirely different aircraft when it comes to performance. Many of the air-craft in the Swedish air force flying in the 2030s will have left the Saab production line already but be thoroughly reequipped and modernized one or more times over.
New embedded electronics and software make the difference. The Viggen software was updated every 18 months on average. The Gripen software is updated much more frequently, or continuously. Hence, the Next Generation Gripen first presented in April 2008 more or less looks the same2 as earlier versions, but has a stronger
Looking into the Future on JAS Gripen Spillovers
G. Eliasson, Advanced Public Procurement as Industrial Policy, Economics of Science, Technology and Innovation 34, DOI 10.1007/978-1-4419-5849-5_5,
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