BAB V KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN
5.2 Saran
Berdasarkan hasil yang telah diperoleh dari penelitian ini maka penulis memberikan beberapa pertimbangan dan saran untuk perbaikan di masa mendatang sebagai berikut:
1. Bagi akademisi
a. Penelitian yang menggunakan data time series dalam menguji pengaruh antar variabel bebas terhadap variabel terikatnya dengan menggunkan regresi linear sederhana,
b. Penelitian ini adapat dilakukan dengan mnggunakan variabel bebas yang berbeda terhadap variabel terikat yang sama yaitu tingkat suku bunga Bank Indonesia. Hal tersebut karena pada penelitian ini masih ada kemungkinan variabel lain yang mempengaruhi suku bunga Bank Indonesia dan memang adanya beberapa penelitian yang menggunakan tingkat suku bunga Bank Indonesia menjadi variabel terikatnya.
c. Penelitian mengenai tingkat suku bunga Bank Indonesia dapat di jadikan bahan berikutnya untuk diuji dengan mengembangkan topiknya seperti pengaruh daru tingkat suku bunga Bank
Indonesia terhadap nilai tukar rupiah, jumlah uang beredar, dan sebagainya.
2. Bagi Investor
Investor diharapkan dapat berhati – hati ketika mengambil keputusan untuk mendepositokan uang atau mengambil kredit bank, karena tingkat suku bunga Bank Indonesia pada penelitian ini memang dipengaruhi oleh inflasi, namun masih ada beberapa faktor lain yang belum diuji dalam penelitian ini yang memungkinkan juga mempengaruhi tingkat suku bunga Bank Indonesia.
3. Bagi Pemerintah
Dengan hasil penelitian ini, pemerintah Indonesia melalui pihak – pihak terkait seperti Menteri Kordinator Ekonomi, Kementrian Keuangan, Bank Indonesia, dan yang lainnya selaku pengendali dan pengambil kebijakan moneter dapat menjaga laju pertumbuhan inflasi dan faktor – faktor lainnya. Hal ini penting karena penetapan suku bunga suatu negara umum mencerminkan kondisi ekonomi negara tersebut. Apalagi pada umumnya negara – negara maju memiliki tingkat suku bunga yang relatif rendah.
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DATA LAMPIRAN
Data Suku Bunga
no periode suku bunga
1 Jan-14 7,50% 2 Feb-14 7,50% 3 Mar-14 7,50% 4 Apr-14 7,50% 5 Mei-14 7,50% 6 Jun-14 7,50% 7 Jul-14 7,50% 8 Agu-14 7,50% 9 Sep-14 7,50% 10 Okt-14 7,50% 11 Nov-14 7,75% 12 Des-14 7,75% 13 Jan-15 7,75% 14 Feb-15 7,50% 15 Mar-15 7,50% 16 Apr-15 7,50% 17 Mei-15 7,50% 18 Jun-15 7,50% 19 Jul-15 7,50% 20 Agu-15 7,50% 21 Sep-15 7,50% 22 Okt-15 7,50% 23 Nov-15 7,50% 24 Des-15 7,50% 25 Jan-16 7,25% 26 Feb-16 7,00% 27 Mar-16 6,75% 28 Apr-16 6,75%
29 Mei-16 6,75% 30 Jun-16 6,50% Data Inflasi no periode inflasi 1 Jan-14 8,22% 2 Feb-14 8,22% 3 Mar-14 7,32% 4 Apr-14 7,25% 5 Mei-14 7,32% 6 Jun-14 6,70% 7 Jul-14 4,53% 8 Agu-14 3,99% 9 Sep-14 4,53% 10 Okt-14 4,83% 11 Nov-14 6,23% 12 Des-14 8,36% 13 Jan-15 6,96% 14 Feb-15 6,29% 15 Mar-15 6,38% 16 Apr-15 6,79% 17 Mei-15 7,15% 18 Jun-15 7,26% 19 Jul-15 7,26% 20 Agu-15 7,18% 21 Sep-15 6,83% 22 Okt-15 6,25% 23 Nov-15 4,89% 24 Des-15 3,35% 25 Jan-16 4,14% 26 Feb-16 4,42%
27 Mar-16 4,45%
28 Apr-16 3,60%
29 Mei-16 3,33%
30 Jun-16 3,45%
Uji Unit Root Test Entry Level
Null Hypothesis: SUKU_BUNGA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.055001 0.9951
Test critical values: 1% level -4.309824
5% level -3.574244
10% level -3.221728
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Sample (adjusted): 2014M02 2016M06 Included observations: 29 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
SUKU_BUNGA(-1) 0.005048 0.091771 0.055001 0.9566
C 0.000134 0.007090 0.018902 0.9851
R-squared 0.199822 Mean dependent var -0.000345 Adjusted R-squared 0.138270 S.D. dependent var 0.001103 S.E. of regression 0.001024 Akaike info criterion -10.83307 Sum squared resid 2.72E-05 Schwarz criterion -10.69163 Log likelihood 160.0796 Hannan-Quinn criter. -10.78877 F-statistic 3.246382 Durbin-Watson stat 1.605675 Prob(F-statistic) 0.055135
Uji Unit Root Test Inflasi Entry Level
Null Hypothesis: INFLASI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.792299 0.6823
Test critical values: 1% level -4.309824
5% level -3.574244
10% level -3.221728
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Sample (adjusted): 2014M02 2016M06
Included observations: 29 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
INFLASI(-1) -0.223014 0.124429 -1.792299 0.0847
@TREND(2014M01) -0.000243 0.000229 -1.060864 0.2985
R-squared 0.110087 Mean dependent var -0.001645 Adjusted R-squared 0.041632 S.D. dependent var 0.008707 S.E. of regression 0.008523 Akaike info criterion -6.594309 Sum squared resid 0.001889 Schwarz criterion -6.452865 Log likelihood 98.61748 Hannan-Quinn criter. -6.550010 F-statistic 1.608171 Durbin-Watson stat 1.354664 Prob(F-statistic) 0.219542
Unit Root Test 1st Difference Entry Inflasi
Null Hypothesis: D(INFLASI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=3)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.843732 0.0289
Test critical values: 1% level -4.323979
5% level -3.580623
10% level -3.225334
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/10/18 Time: 21:10
Sample (adjusted): 2014M03 2016M06 Included observations: 28 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(INFLASI(-1)) -0.744779 0.193765 -3.843732 0.0007
C -0.001396 0.003648 -0.382621 0.7052
@TREND(2014M01) 8.91E-06 0.000208 0.042750 0.9662
S.E. of regression 0.008904 Akaike info criterion -6.503613 Sum squared resid 0.001982 Schwarz criterion -6.360877
Log likelihood 94.05058 Hannan-Quinn criter. -6.459977 Durbin-Watson stat 1.798835
Unit Root Test 1st Entry Suku bunga Bank Indonesia
Null Hypothesis: D(SUKU_BUNGA) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic - based on SIC, maxlag=7)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.022986 0.0196
Test critical values: 1% level -4.323979
5% level -3.580623
10% level -3.225334
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Sample (adjusted): 2014M03 2016M06 Included observations: 28 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(SUKU_BUNGA(-1)) -0.820795 0.204026 -4.022986 0.0005
C 0.000514 0.000429 1.198157 0.2421
R-squared 0.398234 Mean dependent var -8.93E-05 Adjusted R-squared 0.350093 S.D. dependent var 0.001270 S.E. of regression 0.001024 Akaike info criterion -10.83006 Sum squared resid 2.62E-05 Schwarz criterion -10.68733 Log likelihood 154.6209 Hannan-Quinn criter. -10.78643 F-statistic 8.272199 Durbin-Watson stat 1.880087 Prob(F-statistic) 0.001749
Regression Test
Dependent Variable: SUKU_BUNGA Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/10/18 Time: 22:07
Sample (adjusted): 2014M01 2016M06 Included observations: 30 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.066510 0.001722 38.61446 0.0000
INFLASI 0.125200 0.028128 4.451138 0.0001
R-squared 0.414381 Mean dependent var 0.073917
Adjusted R-squared 0.393466 S.D. dependent var 0.003127 S.E. of regression 0.002435 Akaike info criterion -9.133224 Sum squared resid 0.000166 Schwarz criterion -9.039811 Log likelihood 138.9984 Hannan-Quinn criter. -9.103340
F-statistic 19.81263 Durbin-Watson stat 0.401568
Co-Integration test
Date: 01/10/18 Time: 18:05
Sample (adjusted): 2014M03 2016M06 Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None 0.300002 11.59808 12.32090 0.0658
At most 1 0.055915 1.611093 4.129906 0.2399
Trace test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None 0.300002 9.986988 11.22480 0.0819
At most 1 0.055915 1.611093 4.129906 0.2399
Max-eigenvalue test indicates no cointegration at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegrating Coefficients (normalized by b'*S11*b=I):
SUKU_BUNGA INFLASI
-64.29880 78.53604 15.62518 -1.876585
Unrestricted Adjustment Coefficients (alpha):
D(SUKU_BUNG
A) 0.000249 -0.000226
D(INFLASI) -0.004225 -0.000708
1 Cointegrating Equation(s): Log likelihood 251.7130
Normalized cointegrating coefficients (standard error in parentheses)
SUKU_BUNGA INFLASI
1.000000 -1.221423 (0.07945)
Adjustment coefficients (standard error in parentheses) D(SUKU_BUNG
A) -0.015994
(0.01321) D(INFLASI) 0.271687 (0.09151)
Curriculum Vitae
Jeffrey Eduardo Wangsa Kencana
8th Semester Student of Universitas Multimedia Nusantara
Faculty of Business for majority in Finance Management
Email :
j.kencana.jk@gmail.com
Personal Information
Address : Jl. Pakis Raya F5 / 18
Bojong Indah, Jakarta Barat 11740 POB / DOB : Jakarta, 13th of September 1994
Age : 22
Marital Status : Single Blood Type : O (positive) Religion : Catholic ID Number (KTP) : 3173011309940009 Telephone : (021) 581-0322 Handphone : +62-813-1517-5748 Email : j.kencana.jk@gmail.com
Educational History
Period Place Degree Major
2000 – 2006 Vianney, Jakarta Elementary -
2006 – 2009 Vianney, Jakarta Junior High -
2009 – 2012 Vianney, Jakarta Senior High Sains
2013 – Present Multimedia Nusantara University Undergraduate Student Finance Management (GPA: 3.40 out of 4.00)
Academic Achievement
Working Experiences
[2012 - 2015] : Marketing Officer at CV. EMKA Offset Supply
[2016] : Laboratory Assistant of Financial Management 1, Multimedia Nusantara University
[2016] : Laboratory Assistant of Financial Management 2, Multimedia Nusantara University
[MAR–MEY 2017] : INTERNSHIP FINANCE at PT. SMART TBK
[JUN – PRESENT ] : Relationship Manager at PT. Mahkota Sentosa Utama
Organizational Experiences
[2008 – 2009] : Wakil Ketua Putra/i Altar at Gereja St. Thomas Rasul, Bojong Indah [2009] : Logistic Coordinator of Kursus Evangelisasi Pribadi (KEP) at Gereja St.
Thomas Rasul, Bojong Indah
[2009 – 2011] : Main Coordinator for Putra/i Altar at Gereja St. Thomas Rasul, Bojong
Indah
[2010] : The Chief Treasurer of Students Organization / OSIS (Organisasi Siswa
Intra Sekolah) Vianney Senior High School 2010/2011
[2011] : The Head of Technical Organizer of event “VOCIFEROUS” Vianney Cup 5 [2011] : The Chief Secretary of Students Organization / OSIS (Organisasi Siswa
Intra Sekolah) Vianney Senior High School 2011/2012
[2010 – Present] : The Chief of Orang Muda Katolik (OMK) Paulus at Gereja St. Thomas
Rasul, Bojong Indah
[2015] : Mentor of Character Building at Multimedia Nusantara University [2015] : Staff Marketing Division of Investor Club Multimedia Nusantara
University
Seminar And Workshop Participations
[2015] : Seminar “Tips and Trick on Investment at Stock Market” by Henan Putihrai Sekuritas, Multimedia Nusantara University
[2016] : Seminar Information Literacy Skills Program: “Information Resource, Citation, Quality of Information, Plagiarism, Invisble Web, Reading Method and Internet Searching”, Multimedia Nusantara University
Training Participations
[2013] : Training Character Building, Multimedia Nusantara University
[2014] : Training Teamwork and Leadership, Multimedia Nusantara University [2014] : Training Career Building, Multimedia Nusantara University
[2015] : Training for Mentor of Character Building, Multimedia Nusantara University
[2016] : Training for Teaching Assistant Financial Management 1, Multimedia Nusantara University
[2016] : Training for Teaching Assistant Financial Management 2, Multimedia Nusantara University
General Qualifications
Good communication skill with all level of people in daily operation life.
Have a good cooperation in team.
Well experienced using computer softwares.
Fluent in Indonesian and have a good English for speaking, listening, reading and writing
Other Skills
Financial Knowledge
Corporate Finance, Fundamental, Technical Analysis, etc
Computer Skills
Microsoft Office (Ms. Word, Excel, Power Point), Prezi, Canva and Chart Nexus
Music Skills
Vocal and Instruments (Bass, Drum, and Basic Guitar)
Communication and Working Skills
Fluently in Indonesian and English Language, both spoken and written Having experiences in organization and team, both as leader and staff Able to work independently as well as a team