MIKE J. NUNN
Although people have always made decisions in the face of uncertainty, the ability to appreciate risk by specifically assessing probability and consequences is a particular characteristic of modern times. The ability to consider what may happen in the future and to choose rationally between options is essentially a modern phenomenon that has its historical roots in the mathematics of risk-taking, particularly of gambling, insurance and financial investment (Bernstein 1997). The understanding of risk and rational risk-taking that has developed from these roots through risk analysis underpins the modern market economy, including international trade. This paper explores the analytical foundation of the analysis of risks associated with importing animals and plants or their products1 as used by quarantine authorities to develop sanitary and phytosanitary measures to mitigate the spread of disease2.
1 In animal quarantine, this process is called 'import risk analysis' (IRA); in plant quarantine, the same process tends to be termed 'pest risk analysis' (PRA).
In this chapter, the former term is used for the generic process, regardless of what is being imported.
2 In animal (and human) quarantine, 'disease' is used generically to include any harmful condition caused by a transmissible agent, whether a microbe, parasite or insect. In plant quarantine, the term 'pest' tends to be used in this way, often as in the term 'quarantine pest' which includes weeds. The SPS Agreement refers to 'diseases, pests, and disease-carrying or -causing organisms, as well as additives, contaminants toxins or disease-carrying
Risk analysis has been recognised only recently as a formal discipline in its own right and there is still some confusion in both scientific and popular literature about the precise definition of each of its elements (Krewski and Birkwood 1987; Covello and Merkhofer 1993; Byrd and Cothern 2000). Several attempts have been made to develop a standardised nomenclature in a range of disciplines — including animal health, plant health, food safety, and environmental science (Nunn 1997). However, some authorities use 'risk management' rather than 'risk analysis' for the overall term (e.g.
SA/SNZ 1999) and others restrict 'risk analysis' to include elements such as risk identification, assessment and evaluation but not risk management and risk communication. Still others (including OIE 2000), define hazard identification as separate from 'risk assessment', resulting in four elements of risk analysis (hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication). The only difficulty arising from these variations in terminology is that one needs to be conscious of which set of terms is being used in any particular publication or discipline. Despite variations in terminology and details of application, the basic principles and analytical foundation are the same across a wide range of disciplines in which risk analysis is applied.
In this chapter, risk analysis is used as the term for the overall process comprising three elements — risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. Risk assessment is the process of identifying and estimating the risk associated with an option, including evaluation of the likelihood of an event and of the consequences if that event were to occur. Risk management is the process of identifying, documenting and implementing measures to reduce risk (either the likelihood of occurrence or the consequences).
Risk communication is the process of interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning risk between risk analysts and stakeholders.
organisms in food, beverages or feedstuffs'. For the purpose of this chapter, the term 'disease' is in the broadest sense to include all of the hazards covered by the SPS Agreement.
Risk communication
Although usually listed last of the three elements of risk analysis, risk communication needs to be practised throughout a risk analysis. If this is not done, risk analysis is easily perceived as a process of 'expert' risk analysts advising stakeholders of the result of their risk assessment and their proposed risk management strategies. Such a limited approach implies that communication is primarily one-way and occurs only after the risk assessment and management steps have been completed, ignoring the need for two-way communication and consultation throughout the whole process, which is fundamentally iterative in nature. Such an approach also invites conflict, particularly in complex risk analysis by regulatory authorities on potentially controversial by issues. In these cases, which can occur in quarantine risk analysis, poor communication acts as critical factor in provoking outrage among stakeholders, particularly those directly involved.
Perceptions of risk by stakeholders or the general public often align poorly with those of 'experts', and a rapidly growing body of work on risk perception and communication (e.g. Slovic et al. 1985;
Covello 1991; Margolis 1996) has defined a number of key factors that determine individual and group perceptions of risk. For example, factor analysis has shown that hazards that are perceived as unfamiliar or provoke dread are assigned a higher risk than can be demonstrated statistically (Slovic 1987). Unfamiliar or unknown hazards, even with a low probability, that are regarded as having potentially catastrophic effects are perceived as high risk and provoke strong public demands for government to regulate and protect against them. Examples include hazards such as a nuclear accident or the introduction of an unfamiliar disease that might be a zoonosis (e.g. Ebola or Nipah viruses) or the introduction of a known disease that might decimate one or more native species. Risk analysts working in quarantine need to be cognisant of such reactions to risks and take account of them in their communication with stakeholders. Similarly, they should also appreciate the effects of trust, fear (Slovic 1993; Purchase and Slovic 1999) and outrage (Sandman 1993) on how stakeholders feel and behave.
The results of poor risk communication have been documented in a number of case studies such as the epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy or 'mad cow disease' (Powell and Leiss 1997). Risk analysts, particularly those working on highly technical risk assessments, tend to focus on the technical detail of their particular problem and may be surprised to find their dedicated work on a risk assessment and carefully reasoned recommendations for risk management provokes strong and vocal opposition. Leaving consideration of risk communication until late in the risk analysis process rather than informing and involving stakeholders or the general public early and often throughout the process only increases the likelihood of such unfavourable reactions.
In quarantine risk analysis3, it is critical that stakeholders understand the international framework in which import risk assessment and risk management operate. Although technical specialists practising these disciplines in regulatory agencies (such as national quarantine services) appreciate this framework and the obligations and principles associated with it, there may be only limited understanding of it among stakeholders in the industries that might be affected by their recommendations and decisions.
Indeed, there may be relatively limited understanding of the international framework among some of their policy colleagues and the politicians they serve, despite the fact that these politicians or their predecessors committed their countries to this international framework. Keeping stakeholders (including, in the case of quarantine import risk analysis, affected industries as well as relevant policy makers and politicians) informed of why and how a risk assessment is being done and of the risk management options (and inviting their comments) will help them to understand the risk analysis framework. It may also help to achieve some
3 Risk analysis in quarantine can be applied both to imports or to exports.
The former application (import risk analysis) is the more common and tends to dominate discussion of quarantine risk analysis. The latter application may be undertaken by a country to help it gain market access or on behalf of a another country (e.g. as 'technical assistance' under Article 9 of the SPS Agreement as discussed below in the fourth secion of this chapter).
understanding of, if not always agreement with and ownership of, the final decision.
Another element of risk communication in quarantine risk analysis is the need for risk analysts working in this area to communicate to both specialists in other disciplines and with their colleagues in other countries. The latter need is particularly acute with complex quarantine import risk assessments, for which greater exchange of ideas and experience can only improve the quality of analysis undertaken in a rapidly developing and difficult area.
Principles of risk analysis
In 1996, a major review of Australian quarantine (the 'Nairn Review', Nairn et al. 1996) reported on the process then used for quarantine import risk analysis in Australia (AQIS 1991) and recommended changes designed to increase consultation while continuing to meet international obligations. Its recommendations were largely adopted (DPIE 1997) and are now in operation (AQIS 1998, Tanner and Nunn 1998). The Nairn Review identified a number of fundamental principles that apply to risk analysis in a range of disciplines and recommended that they should also apply to quarantine import risk analysis. The review recommended that risk analysis should be consultative, scientifically based, transparent, harmonised, and subject to appeal on process.
Consultation
Risk analysis should include early and ongoing consultation with key stakeholders to help obtain consensus on matters such as priorities, the scope and type of risk assessment, and the risk management strategies required to ensure any proposed import does not jeopardise the importing country's animal and plant health status or have a negative effect on its natural environment.
Scientific basis
Risk analysis should fundamentally be a scientific process. In particular, risk assessment should be 'essentially a scientific
endeavour based on experimentation and observation' (ANZFA 1996, p. 2). However, it is acknowledged that 'risk management involves policy decisions based on a balance of scientific, social and economic considerations' (ANZFA 1996, p. 2). In recognition of this distinction, some countries separate the regulatory application of risk analysis by assigning official responsibility to different agencies for risk assessment (its scientific or technical component) and for risk management (which is deemed to comprise its policy or political component).
Transparency
Risk analysis should be transparent and open. Details of the risk assessment undertaken and any risk management options examined should be readily available for both peer review and public scrutiny.
Consistency and harmonisation
From a regulatory perspective, risk analysis should be consistent with both government policy and international obligations.
Consistency should be achieved by reference to existing policies and procedures, by reference to relevant international standards, guidelines and recommendations, and through the contribution of participants experienced in risk analysis.
Subject to appeal on process
The process of risk analysis should be subject to appeal to ensure natural justice. Both the Nairn Review of Australian quarantine (Nairn et al. 1996) and a report on the use of risk analysis in a wide range of regulatory agencies in the United States (CRARM 1996) confirmed the need for provision to appeal.
Subject to periodic external review
Within any organisation, the risk analysis process and associated decisions should be subject to periodic external review, which is consistent with the principles of transparency and harmonisation.
The international policy framework for quarantine risk analysis
The Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade culminated in the formation in January 1995 of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The role of WTO is defined in an agreement, of which two annexes have particular relevance to quarantine and trade - the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement) and the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT Agreement). The SPS Agreement defines the basic rights and obligations of WTO member countries with respect to taking 'sanitary and phytosanitary measures' to protect human, animal or plant life or health. The TBT Agreement covers food standards such as labelling and nutritional requirements. The following sections summarise key points in the SPS and TBT Agreements. The discussion is drawn from the actual text of the Agreements, but the full text should be consulted for detailed and definitive information.
The SPS Agreement
The SPS Agreement defines the basic rights and obligations of member countries with respect to taking "sanitary and phytosanitary measures" to protect human, animal or plant life or health. WTO member countries ('Members') shall ensure their measures are based on an assessment of the risks to human, animal or plant life or health "taking into account risk assessment techniques developed by the relevant international organizations"
— the Office International des Epizooties (OIE) and the International Plant Protection Convention (IPPC) and the Codex Alimentarius Commission (Codex) for animal quarantine, plant quarantine and food safety, respectively. The SPS Agreement defines nine principles governing sanitary and phytosanitary measures that may affect international trade (in Articles 2 to 10).
Similar principles apply to risk analysis in related areas such as food safety (ANZFA 1996; Randell and Whitehead 1997) and biotechnology (Doyle and Persley 1996).
Basic rights and obligations (Article 2)
Article 2 states that Members "have the right to take sanitary and phytosanitary measures necessary for the protection of human, animal or plant life or health", provided that such measures are "not inconsistent with" the Agreement. Members shall ensure that any measure "is applied only to the extent necessary to protect human, animal or plant life or health, is based on scientific principles and is not maintained without sufficient scientific evidence" - except where
"relevant scientific evidence is insufficient" (in which case Members
"shall seek to obtain the additional information necessary for a more objective assessment of risk and review the sanitary or phytosanitary measure accordingly within a reasonable period of time", as provided in Article 5, on risk assessment). In addition,
"Members shall ensure that their sanitary and phytosanitary measures do not arbitrarily or unjustifiably discriminate between Members where identical or similar conditions prevail, including between their own territory and that of other Members" and such
"measures shall not be applied in a manner which would constitute a disguised restriction on international trade".
Harmonisation (Article 3)
Under Article 3, Members "shall base their sanitary and phytosanitary measures on international standards, guidelines or recommendations" but "may introduce or maintain sanitary or phytosanitary measures which result in a higher level of sanitary and phytosanitary protection ... if there is a scientific justification, or as a consequence of the level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection a Member determines to be appropriate in accordance with the relevant provisions of paragraphs 1 through 8 of Article 5" (on risk assessment).
Equivalence (Article 4)
Article 4 states that Members "shall accept the sanitary or phytosanitary measures of other Members as equivalent, even if these measures differ from their own or from those used by other Members trading in the same product, if the exporting Member
objectively demonstrates ... that its measures achieve the importing Member's appropriate level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection".
Risk assessment (Article 5)
Article 5 (entitled "assessment of risk and determination of the appropriate level of sanitary and phytosanitary protection") outlines Members' obligations with respect to risk assessment. Members
"shall ensure that their sanitary or phytosanitary measures are based on an assessment, as appropriate to the circumstances, of the risks to human, animal or plant life or health, taking into account risk assessment techniques developed by the relevant international organizations". Members shall take into account relevant scientific evidence and relevant economic factors, and "when determining the appropriate level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection, take into account the objective of minimizing negative trade effects". In addition, to help achieve "consistency in the application of the concept of appropriate level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection against risks to human life or health or to animal and plant life or health, each Member shall avoid arbitrary or unjustifiable distinctions in the levels it considers to be appropriate in different situations, if such distinctions result in discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade". Members shall ensure that
"measures are not more trade-restrictive than required to achieve their appropriate level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection, taking into account technical and economic feasibility".
"In the assessment of risks, Members shall take into account available scientific evidence; relevant processes and production methods; relevant inspection, sampling and test methods;
prevalence of specific diseases or pests; existence of pest- or disease-free areas; relevant ecological and environmental conditions; and quarantine or other treatment". In addition, "in assessing the risk to animal or plant life or health and determining the measure to be applied for achieving the appropriate level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection from such risk, Members shall take into account as relevant economic factors: the potential damage in terms of lost production or sales in the event of the entry, establishment or spread of a pest or disease; the costs of control or eradication in the
territory of the importing Member; and the relative cost-effectiveness of alternative approaches to limiting risks".
Paragraph 7 of Article 5 states that "in cases where relevant scientific information is insufficient, a Member may provisionally adopt sanitary or phytosanitary measures on the basis of available pertinent information, including that from the relevant international organisations as well as from sanitary or phytosanitary measures applied by other Members. In such circumstances, Members shall seek to obtain the additional information necessary for a more objective assessment of risk and review the sanitary or phytosanitary measure accordingly within a reasonable period of time".
Regionalisation (Article 6)
Article 6 (entitled "adaptation to regional conditions, including pest- or disease-free areas and areas of low pest or disease prevalence"), outlines Members' obligations with respect to regionalisation.
Members "shall ensure that their sanitary or phytosanitary measures are adapted to the sanitary or phytosanitary characteristics of the area — whether of all of a country, part of a country, or all or parts of several countries — from which the product originated and to which the product is destined". Members shall "recognise the concepts of pest- or disease-free areas and areas of low pest or disease prevalence", and "determination of such areas shall be based on factors such as geography, ecosystems, epidemiological surveillance, and the effectiveness of sanitary or phytosanitary controls". In addition, "exporting Members claiming that areas within their territories are pest- or disease-free areas or areas of low pest or disease prevalence shall provide the necessary evidence thereof in order to objectively demonstrate to the importing Member that such areas are, and are likely to remain, pest- or disease-free areas or areas of low pest or disease prevalence, respectively".
Transparency (Article 7)
Under Article 7, Members "shall notify changes in their sanitary or phytosanitary measures" and shall provide information on them promptly through a designated "enquiry point".
Control, inspection and approval procedures (Article 8)
Under Article 8, Members shall observe specified provisions "in the operation of control, inspection and approval procedures ... and ensure that their procedures are not inconsistent" with the provisions of this agreement.
Technical assistance (Article 9)
Article 9 states that Members shall "agree to facilitate the provision of technical assistance to other Members, especially developing country Members ... to allow such countries to adjust to, and comply with, sanitary or phytosanitary measures necessary to achieve the appropriate level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection in their export markets". In addition, "where substantial investments are required in order for an exporting developing country Member to fulfil the sanitary or phytosanitary requirements of an importing Member, the latter shall consider providing such technical assistance as will permit the developing country Member to maintain and expand its market access opportunities for the product involved".
Special and differential treatment (Article 10)
Article 10 states that "in the preparation and application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures, Members shall take account of the special needs of developing country Members, and in particular of the least-developed country Members", including phased introduction of measures where possible. In addition, developing country Members, "upon request", may be granted "specified, time-limited exemptions in whole or in part" from obligations under the agreement, "taking into account their financial, trade and development needs".
The TBT Agreement
The TBT Agreement covers food standards that are not related to the protection of human health and safety against risks arising from additives, contaminants, toxins, disease-causing organisms, or diseases carried by animals. It thus encompasses rules intended to provide relevant information and to protect consumers against
deception and fraud. Labelling and nutritional requirements come within the scope of the TBT Agreement.
Under the TBT Agreement, Members shall ensure that products imported from one country are accorded treatment no less favourable than accorded to like products of national origin and to like products originating in any other country. Members shall also ensure that technical regulations are "not prepared, adopted or applied with a view to or with the effect of creating unnecessary obstacles to international trade". Technical regulations shall be no more trade-restrictive than necessary to fulfil a legitimate objective, taking into account the risks non-fulfilment would create.
Legitimate objectives specifically include national security requirements; the prevention of deceptive practices; and the protection of human safety, animal or plant health or safety, or the environment.
Risk assessment
The fundamental steps in risk assessment are the identification of the risks or hazards of concern, the assignment of a probability of the occurrence of each risk, and the estimation of the consequences resulting from the occurrence of each risk. There are several published reviews of methods used in import risk assessment (e.g.
Sutmoller (1997) for animal quarantine) and such papers and individual assessments should be examined for discussion of the details of specific approaches.
In summary, the initial step in quarantine import risk assessment is to determine which diseases in the country of origin of a proposed import do not occur in the importing country and are of sufficient concern to warrant measures to exclude them. The assessment establishes a scenario tree or outline of the pathway or pathways of entry and establishment of unwanted diseases that might be associated with a proposed import. In qualitative approaches, emphasis focuses on the key points in the pathway where risk management factors can be applied to eliminate (e.g. by heat treatment of a product) or reduce (e.g. by vaccinating or testing live animals) the risk of importing diseases of concern. In
semi-quantitative approaches, numerical values (e.g. the prevalence of the disease of concern) are applied at each point for which data are available. In fully quantitative approaches, such data are applied at all points of the pathway of entry and establishment. Data used in the assessment are extrapolated from information on the biology and pathology of the disease of concern in countries where it occurs.
Such information may be readily available in published scientific literature, may require specific investigation with the assistance of countries where the disease occurs, or in some cases may not be available and must be obtained by additional field or laboratory studies.
Quantification
In many disciplines, there has been a marked trend towards the use of more quantitative methods of risk assessment over recent years.
In engineering and related disciplines, fully quantitative assessments are feasible and widely undertaken. However, in biological and natural resource disciplines the lack of basic data is often a limiting factor to attempting quantitative risk assessments. It is only in relatively simple cases that reliable quantitative data are available for all steps in quarantine import risk assessment (i.e. for all points in the pathway of entry and establishment of a disease).
There has been a tendency to consider that more quantitative approaches are necessarily 'better' or 'more scientific' than less quantitative approaches. Such a view is misguided, for a quantitative risk assessment that uses poor data or inappropriate quantitative techniques can far less scientific than a good semi-quantitative or qualitative assessment.
At present, methods used in risk assessment range from fully qualitative approaches to fully quantitative approaches (in which numbers are used for all stages or steps in a scenario tree) — with many actual assessments using both approaches (i.e. using quantitative data where these are available and qualitative assessment where quantitative data are not readily available). All degrees of quantification are acceptable under the SPS Agreement and WTO recognises the validity of qualitative risk assessments.
However, as in other areas of application of risk analysis, there is a