THE HILLS SHIRE COUNCIL CENTARAN HOLDINGS PTY LTD
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5. Revise population projections and future income assumptions
CP12, as adopted, anticipated a residential population of 13,012 persons within the Balmoral Road Release Area. As part of the monitoring and review of this Plan, it is recommended that this population projection be revised to reflect the following matters.
a) Bella Vista and Kellyville Priority Precincts (Transit Corridor):
In December 2017, land within the Bella Vista and Kellyville Station Precincts was rezoned by the NSW Government. The rezoning of these station precincts will accommodate approximately 11,500 additional dwellings, the majority of which will be located in the area bound by Old Windsor Road (to the east) and Elizabeth Macarthur Creek (to the west) (area identified in orange in Figure 2 below).
CP12, as originally adopted by Council in 2006, included the majority of the areas which now form part of the Bella Vista and Kellyville Station Precincts. However, CP12 originally identified these areas as a ‘transit corridor’, with potential to accommodate predominantly employment uses and up to 1,000 new dwellings. At this time, it was considered that this small amount of residential growth could be serviced under CP12 along with the remainder of the Balmoral Road Release Area.
In support of the rezoning of the station precincts to enable over 11,000 new dwellings, the NSW Government has identified a range of new local infrastructure that must be provided, specifically to service the Bella Vista and Kellyville Station Precincts. This infrastructure is well beyond that originally planned for under CP12 and critically, the nexus/demand for this new local infrastructure could not be reasonably attributed to the broader Balmoral Road Release Area (east of Elizabeth Macarthur Creek).
Given the new development yields anticipated within the Station Precincts and the need for significant new local infrastructure specifically to service the growth within these Station Precincts, it is appropriate to now excise this land from CP12 and instead prepare a new contributions plan for the Bella Vista and Kellyville Station Precincts. The proposed boundaries of CP12 as well as the proposed new contributions plan are identified below.
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Figure 2
Proposed Plan Boundaries
Council is currently in the process of preparing a draft contributions plan (in consultation with Landcom - being the major landowner within the Bella Vista and Kellyville Station Precincts). This draft Plan would be reported to Council for consideration separately in the future. Importantly, given the length of the public exhibition and subsequent IPART review process which the draft amendments to CP12 must go through, it is prudent to commence this urgently whilst continuing the preparation of the new contribution plan for the Station Precincts concurrently. Ultimately, the finalisation of amendments to CP12 which excise the station precincts could not occur until such time as a new contributions plan for these precincts is adopted concurrently (to avoid any risk of having development applications lodged without an applicable contributions plan under which development could be levied).
The removal of the station precincts (east of Elizabeth Macarthur Creek) from the CP12 area results in a reduction in anticipated development yield of 1,000 dwellings (based on the original development projection under the plan – prior to rezoning of the station precincts). As detailed below, this reduction is offset by increases in yield in other areas of the Precinct.
b) Bella Vista and Kellyville Priority Precincts (Minor Uplift):
As part of the rezoning of the Bella Vista and Kellyville Station Precincts, a number of smaller areas within the Balmoral Road Release Area were also subject to minor uplift in zoning and yield (areas identified as purple in Figure 3 below). This includes a number of sites east of Elizabeth Macarthur Creek which are more suitably serviced by the local infrastructure to be provided under CP12, rather than local infrastructure under a future plan for the Station Precincts. In total, the rezoning of these other areas will result in an additional 600 dwellings within the CP12 area (east of Elizabeth Macarthur Creek).
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Figure 3
Areas of Change – Balmoral Road Release Area and Bella Vista Kellyville Station Precincts c) Approved (and constructed) development:
Current approvals and constructed development within the Balmoral Road Release Area has typically achieved marginally higher densities and yields than originally anticipated under the Plan. Factoring in the actual development yields approved, as well as the application of these marginally higher densities to remaining undeveloped land indicates that approximately 1,100 more dwellings than originally anticipated will be delivered within the broader Balmoral Road Release Area (excluding areas affected by the rezoning of the Station Precincts) (areas identified in blue in Figure 3 above).
The net impact of points a), b) and c) above is an increase in the number of dwellings anticipated within the CP12 area (amended to remove the station precincts) from 6,000 to 6,700. That is, the additional 600 dwellings in areas shown as purple in Figure 3 above (due to uplift through the Station Precinct rezoning) and 1,100 dwellings (due to marginally higher densities achieved) within the areas shown as blue in Figure 3 above are partially offset by the removal of 1,000 dwellings originally anticipated within the
‘transit corridor’ (now the Station Precincts – orange in Figure 3 above).
d) Update occupancy rates based on census data
CP12, as adopted, utilises ABS 2001 Census data for the purpose of estimating future population. The recent 2016 Census data identifies some change to average occupancy rates for dwellings within the Shire (in particular, higher occupancy rates for 1-4 bedroom units and townhouses).
The application of updated occupancy rates based on the 2016 Census to the amended dwelling yield projection results in a total anticipated residential population of 15,633 persons. This represents an increase from the original projection of 13,012 persons, however this is primarily due to increased occupancy rates rather than any significant increase in the number of residential dwellings anticipated.
ORDINARY MEETING OF COUNCIL 24 APRIL, 2018