CHAPTER 2 Historical Background
5.19 The substantial increase in the number of secondary students in recent years, as reflected in Table 5.13, has occurred in varying
degrees in all the Australian States. This is shown in Table 5.14, which compares movements in the number of pupils aged 13 years and over in the six States, over the period 1960-1968. Over the period under consideration, South Australia has experienced the highest growth in secondary pupil numbers of all the States; Victoria and Western Australia have had similar rates of growth, but the
other States have had smaller ones. South Australia's relatively high rate can be accounted for by its rapid population growth and by increasing retention of pupils in the secondary schools. Because of the slower growth in the number of places in private schools, the impact of growth has been all the greater on the government system.
Table 5.14 should be read in conjunction with Table 4.7 which indicates that South Australia has also had high growth rates in the numbers of primary pupils relative to the other States.
Chari 5.2
ACTUAL AND Раo'ELТED ANNUAL RATES OF GROWTH of PUPILS IN CERTAIN ACE GROUPS
Sоитн AUSTRALIA 1955-1981
5.20 It was observed in paragraph 4.21 that the total number of pupils in non-government schools in the 1960's has remained almost constant. However, this stability in the total figures has masked a decline in numbers in the primary grades and some expansion in the secondary sector, although the rate of increase of pupils aged 18-18 years in non-government schools has been slower in the seven years 1961-1968 than it was in the preceding seven years 1954-1961. In aggregate the non-government schools meet only a small part of the total demand for secondary education, and in the 1960's the govern- ment secondary schools have accommodated almost 90 per cent of the total increase in numbers of pupils entering secondary grades. The relative expansion of the government secondary sector since 1961 is 72
NUMBERS IN SECONDARY EDUCATION
apparent in Table 5.15, which shows that the number of pupils aged 13-18 years at non-government schools declined in the period 1954- 1968 from 27 per cent to 17 per cent of all pupils aged 13-18 years.
Tabt« 5.15
NUMBER OF FUMES AGED 13-18 YEARS IN GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENT
$сHооt. s
Sоотн AUsTRALIA 1954-1%8 Government Non-Government Total
A B A/B
'000 '000 '000 per cent
1954 18.7 7.0 25.7 27.2
1961 43.5 11.6 55.1 21.1
1968 65.8 13.4 79.2 16.9
Sex Differences
5.21 Table 5.16 examines the differences by sex in the number of pupils aged 13-18 years in government and non-government schools.
The masculinity ratio, that is, the number of males per 100 females, varies between age groups in the population but, for the ages 13-18 years, the masculinity ratio of the population is approximately 105.
Table 5.16 shows that the overall ratio of boys to girls of this age group at schools is higher than this and has shown little change in the aggregate over the period 1954-1968. The high masculinity ratio among pupils reflects the higher participation and retention rates for boys, which is illustrated in preceding Tables, especially Tables 5.2, 5.3 and 5.6. The ratio of boys to girls in the non-government schools approximates the average for the population of these ages and is significantly higher in government schools.
Table 5.16
NUMBER OF PuГΡIts AGED 13-18 YEARS BY SEX IN GOVERNMENT AND NON-GOVERNMENT SCHоо1S
Sоитн AusтRAt.tn 1954-1968
Government Non-Government Total
Ií F Masculinity M F Masculinity M F Masculinity 000 '000 (a) '000 '000 (a) '000 '000 (a) 1954 10.3 8.4 123 3.4 3.6 95 13.7 12.0 114 1961 24.1 19.4 124 6.0 5.6 107 30.0 25.0 120 1968 35.8 30.0 119 6.9 6.5 108 42.7 36.5 117 (a) Males per 100 females.
5.22 These figures emphasise the difference between the sexes in the use of educational facilities. The lower ratio of boys to girls in the non-government schools reflects the socio-economic differences between the families sending their children to non-government and government schools. The lower participation in education of girls is 73
also apparent in the differences in participation and retention rates for boys and girls which have been illustrated in Tables 5.2, 5.3 and 5.6. This would appear to be wasteful of potential talent, and the figures in Table 5.17 confirm this viewpoint. In this Table, a comparison is made of the scaled marks obtained by boys and girls in their best five subjects at the 1968 Leaving examination conducted by the Public Examinations Board. The three quartile scores which divided all the candidates into four equal groups of 25 per cent were applied separately to the results of the boys and girls who sat for this examination. If the performance of the boys and girls had been identical these three scores would have divided the distribution of the boys and the girls also into four equal groups of 25 per cent each.
In fact, 29.1 per cent of all girls and 22.0 per cent of all boys obtained marks in excess of the first quartile mark for all candidates, and, similarly, 58.1 per cent of all girls and 44.8 per cent of all boys obtained marks better than or equal to the second quartile or median mark for all candidates. The performance of the girls remained con- sistently superior, no matter how the total candidates were divided into sub-groups. The results of the sub-groups, metropolitan, country, high school, technical high school and non-government, have been included in Table 5.17 to illustrate this observation. It might be argued that those girls who leave school earlier are weaker students
Table 5.17
Q UARTILE DisпЦВuтTON of AGGREGATE SCALED MARKS FOE THE BEST FIVE SusjEп's
OF EACH CANDIDATE IN THE LEAVING EXAMINATION SоитН AUSTRALiA 1968
Proportion of Candidates Obtaining Scaled Marks Between:
Top Mark Q, and Median Q and
and Q, Median and Qs Lowest Mark per cent per cent per cent per cent І'Iеhорolilап
Males 22.5 22.7 25.8 29.0
Females 30.7 29.7 23.1 16.5
Country
Males 21.1 23.9 25.7 29.3
Females 25.4 27.2 26.7 20.8
High Schools
Males 23.5 22.5 26.3 27.7
Females 29.6 28.7 23.8 17.8
Technical High
Males 12.2 26.5 29.1 32.2
Femalts 24.6 25.1 25.7 24.6
Non•Government
Males 21-7 23.6 23.4 31.3
Females 29.7 31.2 23.8 15.2
All Schools
Males 22.0 22.8 25.7 29.4
Females 29.1 29.0 24.0 17.9
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NUMBERS IN SECONDARY EDUCATION
and that the general performance of girls is thereby raised. More evidence is needed to test this hypothesis but it would be surprising if the differential persistence at school was based solely on academic performance. It is not uncommon, for example, for parents who can- not afford to give all their children a long and expensive education to provide the boys of the family with better opportunities than the girls, although there may be little difference in their school records.
PROJECTED MOVEMENTS IN NUMBERS OF PUPILS
5.23 The projected numbers of secondary school pupils aged 13-18 years, for the period 1969-1981, are presented in Table А.13 of Appendix A, and in Table 5.13. Table 5.18 summarises the data contained there and is based on a net migration rate of 10,000 persons per annum and medium retention rates in the senior secondary grades.
As was the case for primary school pupils the projections were made on the basis of data up to 1968; a comment on the more recent data which has become available is given in paragraph A.29.
5.24 It is predicted that the number of pupils aged 13-18 years will continue to rise for the next five years at the rate experienced in the last quinquennium, but for the remainder of the 1970's the sec- ondary school population will increase less rapidly. This is illustrated in Chart 5.2. The levelling-off in aggregate numbers in the secondary system is the consequence of a decline in the rate of growth of the population aged 13-18 years in the second half of the 1970's. Ulti- mately there will be an absolute decline in this age group of the population late in the 1970's. Since the people of this age group have already been born, any future change in the level of fertility will have no influence on this trend. However, the trend will be somewhat affected if the level of immigration in the intervening period differs from the assumed rate of 10,000 per annum. Throughout the 1970's participation rates will rise but the effects that they will have on pupil numbers later in the decade will be dampened by demographic conditions. Moreover, the significance of increasing participation
Table 5.18
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED NUMBER OF PUPILS AСED 13-18 YEARS Sоuтн AUSTRALIA 1963.1981
Males Females Total Annual Change '000 '000 '000 per cent Actual
1 Э63 34.9 28.8 63.7
196Я 42.7 36.5 79.2 4.4
Pro јеаеа
1973 52.4 45.6 98.0 4.4
1978 59.9 50.9 110.8 2.5
1981 5Э•5 52.5 112.0 0.4
75
must diminish as participation in successive age groups approaches saturation.
Projected Numbers of Pupils by Grades
5.25 The secondary educational system has been divided into junior and senior sectors, the former including grades VIII to X and the latter grades XI and
XII.
Table 5.19 shows the actual and esti- mated pupil numbers and their rates of growth for the period 1963- 1981 and the numbers and rates of growth for gradeXII.
The pro- jected numbers are based on a migration assumption of a net inflow of 10,000 persons per annum, and medium retention rates in the senior grades. These projections are given in greater detail as Pro- jection B in Tables A.27-А.29 of Appendix A.Table 5.19
ACrUAL AND PROJECГED NUMBER OF PUPILS IN JUNIOR AND SENIOR SECONDARY GRADES (a)
Sotrm AUSTRALIA 1963-1981
Junior Secondary Senior Secondary Grade XII
Annual Annual Annual
No. Change No. Change No. Change
'000 per cent '000 per cent '000 per cent Actual
1963 50.9 - 9.5 - 2.2 -
1964 54.7 7.5 10.4 9.5 2.6 18.2
1965 57.9 5.9 11.1 6.7 2.7 3.8
1966 60.4 4.3 11.6 4.5 2.9 7.4
1967 62.6 3.6 13.8 19.8 3.7 27.6
1968 63.8 1.9 16.2 18.7 4.5 21.6
Projected
1969 65.9 3.3 17.7 7.3 5.3 17.8
1970 68.0 3.2 19.2 8.5 5.8 9.4
1971 70.1 3.1 20.8 8.3 6.4 10.3
1972 72.3 3.1 22.6 8.7 7.1 10.9
1973 74.5 3.0 24.4 8.0 7.8 11.0
1974 76.6 2.8 26.2 7.4 8.6 10.3
1975 77.9 1.7 28.3 8.0 9.4 9.3
1976 78.4 0.6 30.1 6.4 10.2 8.5
1977 78.3 -0.1 32.1 6.6 11.0 7.8
1978 77.5 -1.0 33.7 5.0 11.9 8.2
1979 76.5 -1.3 34.9 3.6 12.6 5.9
1980 75.8 -0.9 35.7 2.3 13.1 4.0
1981 76.6 1.1 36.3 1.7 13.6 3.8
(a) The estimated number of pupils is derived from Projection B, which assumes a net migration rate of 10,000 persons per annum, and medium retention rates in the senior grades. Ungraded students in special schools are excluded.
5.26 High rates of growth are forecast for the senior secondary classes until 1975, and thereafter somewhat lower rates of increase for the period of the projection. Although, when measured against the pace of the last five years, these projected increases appear moderate,
76
NUMBERS IN SECONDARY EDUCATION
they will add to an already strained situation in the secondary schools, so that the declining rates of growth in the late 1970's are unlikely to afford much relief from the pressure on resources in the senior grades of the secondary sector. It is estimated that another 20,000 places will be necessary in the senior secondary grades over the years 1969-1981, the required expansion being evenly spread over most of the period.
Some 9,000 of these places will be in grade XII, which is expected to increase almost threefold by 1981. Rapid as this rate of growth is expected to be, it is moderate when compared with the expansion of grade XII in some recent years which is detailed in Table 5.19. The junior secondary grades will require another 13,000 places by 1976, which is a smaller rate of expansion than in the recent past, and for the remainder of the 1970's numbers in the junior secondary grades are expected to decline slightly.
5.27 Two other projections of student numbers have been pre- pared (Projections A and C) which are summarised in Table A.12 of Appendix A; Projection C is repeated in Table 5.20. The details of these projections are contained in Tables А.24—А.26 and А.30—А.32 respectively. In the case of Projection A a net migration rate of 5,000 persons per annum with the same medium retention rates in the senior classes as in Projection B is assumed. In the case of Projection C the same net migration rate as for Projection B (10,000 persons per annum) is assumed, but with high retention rates in the senior classes.
Variations in the assumed level of migration become more important with the passage of time as the migrants and the children born to them accumulate in numbers over the years, but, in the first half of the 1970s, changes in the net migration rate make little difference to the numbers of pupils in the junior or the senior sections of the secondary system as set out in Table 5.19. The difference becomes more significant in the late 1970's, especially in the junior secondary system which is more sensitive to changes in demographic conditions;
halving the migrant inflow reduces the estimated enrolment in the junior secondary sector by approximately 7 per cent in 1981.
5.28 Pupil numbers are more sensitive to variation in retention rates, which produce more immediate effects than changes in migra- tion rates. In addition, the impact of retention rates is limited to the non-compulsory ages so that their effect is concentrated in the senior secondary grades. The two Projections В and C, which differ only in their retention rates, steadily diverge over the projected period, show- ing a difference of 10 per cent in 1971 and 16 per cent by 1981. More- over, the greatest effect of generally rising retention rates occurs in the most senior classes since a general rise in retention rates has a multi- plicative effect through the educational system. This is apparent from Tables А.33--А.35 in Appendix A which list the expected enrol- ments for grades XI and XII resulting from the three Projections A, B. and C. The data of the last two Projections are summarised in Table 5.20.
77
5.29 Student numbers for the senior grades, XI and XII, are the most difficult to forecast. Various recent structural changes in the educational system will impinge on the future enrolments in these grades so that past rates of growth may not be appropriate guides to the future. These structural changes result from the new matricula- tion requirements which were introduced in 1966, the development of more tracks in the senior classes in the government schools, and the abolition of the Intermediate examination which has resulted in the Leaving examination becoming the first external examination which gives a certificate. Participation rates have risen rapidly for the specific age groups of students in these grades and they will continue to rise, but die speed at which they will increase is speculative. The high retention rates of Projection C assume that retention rates will rise at a pace similar to the average rate experienced in the recent past when these structural changes occurred. However, some of these effects are likely to be once-for-all rather than continuous, so that a projec- don based on their extrapolation is likely to over-estimate the future rate of change.
Table 5.20
PRojEcTED NUMBER OF Pupils IN GRADES XI AND XII Souтн AUSTRALIA 1969-1981
Projection В Projection C
XI XII XI XII
'000 '000 '000 '000
1969 12.4 5.3 12.8 5.7
1970 13.4 5.8 14.2 6.3
1071 14.4 6.4 15.6 7.3
1972 15.5 7.1 17.1 8.4
1973 16.6 7.8 18.3 9.5
1974 17.7 8.6 19.6 10.6
1975 18.9 9.4 21.1 11.7
1976 20.0 10.2 22.1 13.0
1977 21.1 11.0 23-2 14.1
1978 21.9 11.9 23.8 15.3
1979 22.3 12.6 24.2 16.2
1980 22.6 13.1 24.4 17.0
1981 22.8 13.6 24-5 17.7
5.30 The numbers in the senior grades in Projection C rise more rapidly than those in Projection B. While the growth in numbers from this projection is very rapid it is not as high in the periods 1968-1973 and 1973-1978 as it was in the years 1963-1968. The growth rate for the last period was 11.3 per cent per annum compared with the expected rates based on high retention rates in senior classes of 10.5 per cent and 5.4 per cent per annum for 1968-1973 and 1973- 1978 respectively. After 1978 demographic conditions will offset to some degree the rising retention rates, and the pace of expansion should decelerate further. Movements in numbers of students in the senior grades have a special significance since they have a direct effect 78
NUMBERS IN SECONDARY EDUCATION
on the numbers wishing to carry on with tertiary education at uni- versities, colleges of advanced education and teachers colleges.
Government and Non-Government Schools
5.31 Table 5.21 examines the implications for government and non-government schools of the projected increases in numbers of primary and secondary students. It has been assumed that enrolments in non-government schools will remain roughly unchanged at 37,000 over the projected period, but the composition of this aggregate will change as primary enrolments fall (see paragraph 4.23) and as higher retention rates along with greater transfer from government primary to non-government secondary schools raise the numbers of pupils in the secondary classes. The somewhat slower rate of increase in the senior classes of non-government schools, when compared with the government schools, as shown in Table 5.21 is to be expected, because retention rates are already high in the non-government sector.
Table 5.21
PAST AND PROjEстED (a) NUMüER or Puns [и COVERNMENт AND NON-GO%ERNiINT SCпOOLs
Sоитн AUSTRALIA 1963-1981 Junior Senior
Primary Secondary Secondary Total
•000 '000 '000 '000
Government Actual
1963 138.1 41.3 6.7 186.1
1968 155.3 51.4 12.3 222.0
Projected
1973 159.9 63.8 19.7 243.4
1978 177.5 65.6 28.5 271.6
1981 201.7 64.0 30.9 296.6
Non-Government Actual
1963 24.7 9.6 2.8 38.1
1968 23.0 9.7 3.9 36.6
Projected
1973 21.3 11.0 4.7 37.0
1978 19.6 12.2 5.2 37.0
1981 18.7 12.9 5.4 37.0
All Schools (b) Actual
1963 162.8 50.9 9.5 223.2
1968 178.3 64.1 16.2 258.6
Projected
1973 181.2 74.8 24.4 280.4
1978 197.1 77.8 33.7 308.6
1981 220.4 76.9 36.8 333.6
(a) Based on Projection B.
(b) Includes ungraded students in special schools.
79
NUMBERS IN SECONDARY EDUCATION
5.32 The estimated pupil numbers in the three levels of the gov- ernment sector, contained in Table 5.21, have been obtained by deducting the numbers for the private sector from the total estimates.
The growth in the number of pupils in the primary classes of govern- ment schools until the mid-1970's is expected to be less rapid than it was in the years 1963-1968, when pupil numbers increased by 2.4 per cent per annum. For the remainder of the projected period, 1976-1981, the numbers of pupils in the primary sector are expected to grow relatively rapidly, as Table 4.3 shows. The junior secondary classes of government schools have increased by 5.6 per cent per annum in the last five years and it is expected that they will increase at a slower pace (3.3 per cent per annum) in the next five years, after which the rate of expansion will ease further, with projected enrol- ments between 1978 and 1981 possibly declining.
5.33 Estimated numbers in the senior secondary classes of gov- ernment schools are the most speculative as they are dependent on the speed at which retention rates rise in the near future, as well as on the level of enrolments of senior secondary students at non-govern- ment schools. In the senior classes in recent years, the proportion of students in non-government schools has been relatively high, being 30 per cent in 1963 and 24 per cent in 1968. Consequently, changes in the preferences of parents between the two systems can significantly affect the numbers in the senior classes in government schools. The figures in Table 5.21 are based on the assumption of medium reten- tion rates in senior classes. It is expected that the numbers of students in these classes in the non-government schools will continue to rise, but not as rapidly as the total number of students in senior classes;
and, consequently, the government schools will cater for most of the increased demand. Thus the numbers of senior secondary students in government schools are expected to increase over the periods 1968- 1973 and 1973-1978 by 9.9 per cent and 7.7 per cent per annum respectively. These high rates of growth are less than the pace of the period 1963-1968 when the number of senior students in government schools increased by 12.9 per cent per annum. In the last three years of the projected period, 1978-1981, the rate of increase is expected to decelerate further to 2.7 per cent per annum as the age group 13-18 years of the population declines, offsetting the effect of rising retention rates on student numbers in the senior classes of government schools.
CONCLUSIONS
5.34 The underlying trends in the data presented in the preceding paragraphs have been summarised in Table 5.22 which analyses the sources of the estimated growth in the number of pupils of secondary school age, 13-18 years, in the period 1969-1981. The increase in the population aged 13-18 years in this period is due entirely to net immigration which more than offsets the decline in natural increase caused by the fall in fertility in the 1960's. If the indigenous and the 80
NUMBERS IN SECONDARY EDUCATION
migrant components of the age group 13-18 years seek secondary education equally, 35 per cent of the increased number of pupils over the period 1969-1981 will originate from migrants not yet in Australia.
Without migration and improved participation rates, pupil numbers in the secondary sector would decline by more than 1,000 because of the fall in numbers of the age group 13-18 years of the indigenous population. By far the most important source of expansion of the secondary system is the propensity to stay at school longer, which accounts for more than two-thirds of its growth.
Table Т.22
SOURCES of PRojECTED CRUWTII of NUMBER of Punts AGED 13-18 YEARS, ASSUMING NET IMMIGRATION of 10,000 PERSONS PER ANNUM
Sоитн AUSTRALIA 1969-1981 Calculated at 1968 Participation Rates:
Net Immigration
Natural Increase (Change in the Age Group 13-18 Years Excluding Immigration)
Rise in Participation Rates Total Increase 1969-1981
'000 per cent 10.3 35.3
—1.2 —4.0 20.1 68.7 29.2 100.0
5.35. The following conclusions emerge from the above analysis:
(a) The secondary system grew most rapidly in the late 1950's and its rate of growth has decelerated throughout the 1960's. Rates of growth of student numbers are expected to stabilise at between 4 and 5 per cent per annum until the mid-1970's and decline there- after until 1981. The slackening in the rate of growth will afford some relief to the problems of the educational authorities and some oppor- tunities to improve the quality of education, although the numbers in the senior secondary grades will continue to rise steadily at a rate of 8 to 10 per cent per annum until the late 1970's. As in the case of the primary system, this relief should be particularly welcome to the Education Department, which in recent years has had to cope with very high rates of increase in secondary pupil numbers compared with some of the other Australian States.
(b) Participation and retention rates for the non-compulsory ages have shown marked upward trends which are expected to continue for at least the next decade, although they are bound to level off as participation approaches 100 per cent. These trends have been largely responsible for the growth of numbers of students in senior secondary lasses. By 1981, it is likely that virtually all boys and girls will stay on at school past their sixteenth birthday, that more than 60 per cent of boys and more than 40 per cent of girls aged 17 years will be at school, and that roughly the same proportions as these will persist to the final year of secondary schooling.
81