The word count of the body of this thesis is 96,720 including all tables and figures, which complies with the Australian National University's 100,000 word limit. Moglia M, Perez P and Burn S (2007) How complex is water service delivery in a small atoll town?, in 'Pre-proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Complexity and Organizational Resilience', ed. Thanks to my family back in Sweden for your patience with me while you were on the other side of the planet.
Provision of water services is a critical strategy to address global poverty, and it is one of the most pressing challenges of the present time and is linked to population growth and climate change. The methodology includes historical review of the case study, and the use of historical review, as well as interviews and observation in the field as well as a cross-sectional email-based Delphi survey. With improved clarification of the complex situation, it was used to support the formulation of a strategic and adaptive management framework; which aims to introduce much-needed organizational memory, and a consistent strategic direction set on the basis of effective stakeholder interaction.
Glossary of Terms
Introduction
- The need for practical frameworks
- Problem statement
- Underlying assumptions
- Thesis aim and objectives
- Structure of thesis
- Part 1: Literature reviews
- Part 2: Methodology
- Part 3: Results
To develop systems representations of the single case study location that will help improve understanding and causal explanations of the complex dynamics of this context. The second section (chapter 5) describes the context of the case study through a historical review as well as an assessment of the current situation. This includes a description of the rationale for case study-based research; as well as a set of criteria for selecting a case study location.
The chapter also includes specifications of the modelling; using Agent Based Modeling and Bayesian Networks approaches. The second chapter (7) focuses on the description and results of the agent-based models and. These results are therefore a personal perception and interpretation of the situation in the Tarawa water supply system.
Context review
- Challenges of urbanisation
- Key dimensions of urbanisation
- Urban size
- Level of development
- Perspectives on urban water
- Economic perspective
- Environmental perspective
- Social perspective
- Frameworks for urban water management
- Sustainability principles
- Governance
- Regulation
- Public participation and institutional decentralisation
- Tarawa in the context of the South Pacific
- Small Island Developing States
- Small town management gap
- Geography and geology
- Economic strategies
- Interconnected social and environmental problems
- Land ownership issues
- Institutional concerns
- Review summary
In 2003, only four of the world's megacities were in the developed world (New York, Los Angeles, Tokyo and Osaka), while the rest were in Africa, Asia or Latin America (UN-HABITAT 2003). In the previous section, cities were identified as being problematic for urban water management due to their smaller scale. Sources: Proportion of population that is urban (United Nations 2002); Infant Mortality (World Health Organization 2006); Access to improved water and sanitation services in urban areas (World Health Organization 2006).
It also involves better management of the environmental quality, as well as additional benefits of the urban water system such as urban amenity and recreation (Berndtsson and Jinno 2008). The importance of the environmental dimension in the water sector was reinforced by the declaration of the Millennium Development Goals (see Appendix 1). In terms of activity in the field of sustainable urban water management research, for example, (Makropoulos et al. 2008) examines future scenarios for sustainable urban water management.
The interest of the South Pacific Applied Geosciences Commission (SOPAC) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB), as well as the focus during the 3rd World Water Forum, shows the importance of water resources management and water services in Pacific island countries . PIC). Most of the urban institutional, administrative and legislative structures in the PIC are a legacy of the colonial era.
Methods Review
- Information collection
- Interviews
- Going from qualitative data to computer models
- Mental models
- Conceptual models
- Coding conceptual models
- Complexity modelling
- Agent based modelling
- Bayesian Networks
- Integration frameworks
- Participatory Integrated Assessments
- Multi-Criteria Analysis and Decision Making
- Structural equations modelling
- Companion modelling
- Consideration of stakeholders
- Post-Normal Concepts
- Social Learning Concepts
- Review summary
It should also be noted that the interview process can be very beneficial in terms of individual learning for the researcher (Byrne 2001). It can be argued that a wealth of qualitative information about stakeholder perceptions can be captured using the second approach (Becu et al. 2003). Water users adapt to changes in the quality and quantity of supplied water.
Indeed, the approach (as described by, for example, Ferber 1999) has proven to be successful in explaining the emergence of many phenomena based on simple and intuitive local rules of interaction and has even been able to explain widely divergent systems that previous research paradigms have failed. . to explain, such as racial segregation in cities (Schelling 1978), bird formations (Reynolds 1986), distribution of wealth in societies (Epstein and Axtell 1996), spread of HIV (Wilensky 1998), dynamics of electricity markets (North et al. 2002), or village formations of the Anasazi Indians (Diamond 2002). The complete list of all the activity diagrams corresponds to the script of the model (Perez et al. Fourthly, Hare and Deadman (2004) also categorize ABMs based on the mechanisms for adaptation; i.e.
Sustainable planning of the management of an aquifer in Spain de Santa Olalla et al. 93 Outside the urban water context, Messner and colleagues (2006) used what they call an Integrated Participatory Multi-Criteria Decision Support Approach (IMA), which is a hybrid between MCA, Benefit-Cost Analysis (BCA) and participatory methods. Here the process begins with participatory assessment of the specific conflict situation and the institutional arrangements (both formal and informal).
In other words, it is not an integrative assessment methodology, but models a component of the water system. A first limitation of the model is that the results are specific to the surveyed population, and therefore require representative samples to be generalised. A role play also seems to be playful enough to maintain the interest of participants (Dray et al. 2006a) but this may depend on the personalities of the participants.
It is based on the recent recognition of the influence of values on all research, including the basic tests of statistical significance. To indicate the importance of the topic, social learning has recently been the subject of a special issue in the prominent journal Ecology and Society (Volume 12, Issue 1, 2007). A key addition to the theory of social learning has been contributed by Argyris and Schön and Argyris and colleagues (Argyris et al. 1985; Argyris and Schön 1996) with the introduction of the concepts of single and double loop learning, as described in the simplified Figure 3 -6.
Methodology
- Assumptions and requirements
- Complex and adaptive systems
- Developing management frameworks
- Case study selection
- Integration framework
- Sequence of activities
- Historical review
- Interviews
- Delphi survey
- Sequences of events
- Selection and invitation of participants
- Agent Based Modelling
- Modelling requirements
- Design process
- Software Environment
- Model structure
- Bayesian Networks
- Modelling requirements
Below is a description of some of the assumptions and requirements underlying this study. 109 Examples of emergent patterns are the flocking of birds, the collective behavior of ants, or the emergence of the laws of Newtonian mechanics based on quantum mechanics. Use of multiple perspectives on the nature of the system, as no single perspective is sufficient to fully understand it;
Using multiple perspectives on the nature of the system Delphi survey Exploratory analysis to temporarily a. A sectoral review of the situation in the case study location was initiated, and results of this review were used for investigation at the second case study visit;. Consequently, when writing according to a linear and structured narrative, there must be some reconstruction of the.
Therefore, there is a limitation in terms of both the number and types of interviews conducted. Efforts are made to understand the local culture and context, as well as the system representations (mental models) applied by local stakeholders. Representatives of the Government of Kiribati (QeK), PUB, OB and WEU (see Figure 4-5); to.
To specify research questions in the sense that the learning that occurs as part of the process is likely to raise new questions and identify problem areas. Invite participants to be critical of the process and adapt it when deemed appropriate; Experts with relatively limited PIC experience were included in the reference group for the base case; a subcategory of expert groups.
This is because it is believed that the specific spatial configuration is not a critical influence on the behavior of the system, other than in a very general sense;. These perspectives of the model are described using Unified Modeling Language (UML) diagrams which are further described in the Results section (chapter 7). Link topic domain says, for example in the case of an Influence/Driver 'The likelihood of poor ownership of technology assuming low social and cultural acceptability of the solution'.
Review of case study site
- Study area description
- Demography
- Colonisation, Transition and Post-colonisation eras
- Culture and customs
- Environment
- Development challenges
- Case study historical review
- Issues and concerns
- Institutions and Legal arrangements
- Key events
Furthermore, a case study site was identified, in the small mid-Pacific atoll town of Tarawa, the capital of the tiny nation of the Republic of Kiribati. Much of the money the government of Kiribati has earned from mining has been set aside in a Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund (Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 2008) and compared to neighboring Nauru, for example, the Asian Development Bank considers Kiribati to be a history of sound fiscal management (Asian Development Bank 2002). This island has a relatively high population density and some of the problems that come with it, i.e.
It is the location of the airport and the runway crosses the island at an angle from one side to the other. It is also the site of the largest water reserve established for the protection of groundwater, the main source of water for South Tarawa. Most of the settlers now live on the edge of the island, although there are also settlements on the water reserve;
165 discussion in Maneaba is not polarized and the aim of the detailed decision-making process is to reach consensus (Tabokai 1993). Low income based on three-year average estimate of gross national income per capita (below $750 for enrollment cases, above $900 for graduation cases); This section describes the results of a literature-based historical review of water supply in Tarawa, Republic of Kiribati.
Fresh water was obtained from wells that had sunk to the level of the freshwater lens. Drought coupled with over-absorption of water from groundwater sources has been shown to significantly affect the thickness (i.e., size) of the freshwater lens (White et al. 1999c). Another reason for disagreement is that there appears to have been no involvement or community consultation by the colonial government leading up to the establishment of the water resources (White et al. 1999b).
The Public Utilities Ordinance 1977 which only applies to the activities of the Public Utilities Board (PUB).
