Glossary of Terms
Chapter 4: Methodology
4.1 Assumptions and requirements
4.1.1 Complex and adaptive systems
A key perspective of this study comes from the assumption that small town water systems can effectively be perceived and represented as Complex and Adaptive Systems (CAS). In particular it is noted that provision of small town water and sanitation services involves interactions between social, natural and technical systems. It is hence what is often referred to as a socio- technical system.
The science of CAS concerns those systems that are neither chaotic nor ordered, but that tend to exhibit changing and emergent patterns (Holland 1995). A chaotic system is one a dynamical one where initial conditions and small perturbations may shift the system to a new pattern of behaviour; this is the realm of the butterfly effect where system behaviour tend to be of a statistical nature (Batten 2000). An ordered system, or sometimes referred to as a simple system, is more static and forces tend to be known and behaviours tend to be predictable, such as the movements of the planets around the sun; where interactions between components are only weakly interactive (Batten 2000). Emerging patterns are effects where interactions of individual and distributed components, such as atoms in a gas or individuals in a population of animals, will generate surprising and unexpected patterns at a higher scale (Johnson 2001).
109 Examples of emerging patterns are in the flocking of birds, the collective behaviour of ants, or the emergence of the laws of Newtonian mechanics on the basis of quantum mechanics. Socio- technical systems, such as urban water systems, are typical examples of CAS where agents tend to act in response to their environment, the built and natural environment as well as the institutional, normative and cultural settings, as well as the actions of other agents. Assuming that a socio-technical system can be described as a CAS, it should display most of the following features (Holland 1995; Richardson 2002; Perez and Batten 2006; Miller and Page 2007):
• Elements of surprise due to the unpredictable nature of the system;
• Emergence of macro-scale properties from micro-scale interactions;
• Irreducibility, or the fact that the system can not be understood by its parts alone but that the system needs to be viewed in its entirety;
• Self-organisation, or the emergence of order/complexity without inputs from the outside;
• Feedbacks and thresholds; or non-state equilibriums that change over time and which generate dynamic processes with stable and unstable regions.
In this thesis, there is a strong influence from the ideas of Kurtz and Snowden (2003) who argue that for these systems one need to relax three basic assumptions that are pervasive in the scientific study of decision making:
1. The assumption of order – that there are underlying relationships between cause and effect in human interactions and markets;
2. The assumption of rational choice – that humans make decisions based on maximising benefit or minimising pain; and
3. The assumption of intentional capability – the idea that each action is intentional and carried out to achieve a particular goal.
110 Hence, it is assumed that the studied system is in the un-ordered domain of complex relationships; as per the description in the Cynefin framework by Kurtz and Snowden (2003).
This system domain has been described by Kurtz and Snowden (2003) and they have formulated the Cynefin framework with the following generic principles for sense-making and management:
• Analysis of history as a way to understand systemic properties, but this is insufficient in itself as a complex system is evolutionary and dynamic;
• Use of narrative techniques, as these are able to capture and convey complexities without necessarily being bound by formalism and simplifying assumptions;
• Use of multiple perspectives on the nature of the system, because no single perspective is sufficient to fully understand it;
• Exploratory analysis in order to temporarily move to a situation where cause and effect relationships are discoverable;
• Use of an adaptive approach, where interventions are designed as probes, and analysed in retrospect in order to understand how to promote desirable patterns of behaviour.
In this thesis, there is the intent to use the Cynefin framework as a methodological template against which different research activities are mapped. This is because the Cynefin framework has the potential to provide a meta-level instruction for understanding and managing what are perceived as complex and adaptive systems. Furthermore, as per the theory of Complex Adaptive Systems, the assumption is adopted that models of such systems tend to be unpredictable circular, subjective and paradoxical, and therefore difficult to validate. A post- normal approach to science, where participants provide the role held by peer-reviewers, is therefore warranted.
111 4.1.2 Case study based learning process
As mentioned, an implication of viewing small town water systems as examples of CAS is that validation of models and theories is problematic. A type of validation can be achieved by allowing experts and stakeholders to inductively assess models, as part of the learning process, see Figure 4-1; and this is also in line with Inductive Theory Building. This cyclical learning process is similar to that used by the Companion Modelling practitioners where the process is facilitated by models within a field setting (Barreteau et al. 2003a). Hence, the researchers have the role of providing synthesis, whilst contradictions are provided by observations or meetings with field realities; typically offered by stakeholders and experts.
This case-based study is grounded into field reality, generating a rich body of qualitative and quantitative information. It also allows experts and stakeholders to inductively assess models and theories in use and to gradually make sense of specific and detailed aspects of the system, beyond mere generic concerns. Specifically, as per Gerring (2007) even single case studies can help support a (deductive or inductive) logical argument, in a similar way to controlled experiments, and those arguments may have broader significance to a bigger set of cases.
Similarly, it is also acknowledged that that there is a need for participation in water management, but it is also argued that participation in the target context is currently problematic. Similarly, it is agreed that there is a need for social learning to be incorporated, but again it can be argued that it this is currently problematic in the target context due to a messy socio-political reality.
Assumption
It is agreed and assumed that there is a need for social learning and participation in urban water management. However, it is furthermore agreed and assumed that the implementation of social learning principles and participation is often problematic in the target context; and therefore caution needs to be exercised.
112 Figure 4-1: Dialectic progression of thesis, contradiction and synthesis