Observed, TRMM and Model Simulated Rainfall on 23 June 2015

Results & Discussions

4.1 Heavy rainfall during 23 – 26 June 2015

4.1.1 Observed, TRMM and Model Simulated Rainfall on 23 June 2015

32

Chapter IV

33

Fig. 2: Distribution of (a-d) Observed and (e-h) TRMM rainfall during 23-26 June 2015 all over Bangladesh.

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

(a) 23June

(e) 23 June

(b) 24June (f) 24 June

(c) 25 June (g) 25 June

(d) 26June (h) 26 June

34

Fig.3: Distribution of 24 hour model simulated rainfall using different MPs on 23 June 2015 all over Bangladesh.

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

(a)KS _(b)Lin

(g) MYDM

(f)TH

(d)FE (e)WSM6

(c)WSM3

(i)CAM (h)MDM

(j)SBU (k)WDM6 (l)NSSL-2

35

WSM3 has simulated heavy rainfall in the E-SE and northern regions and light rainfall is simulated from centre to W-SW region (Fig. 3c). Maximum rainfall simulated at Chittagong, Sitakunda, Teknaf, Kutubdia and Cox’s Bazar are 145, 141, 134, 133 and 126 mm respectively. The model simulated maximum rainfall pattern is matched with the observed rainfall pattern. Ferrier, WSM6 and Thompson schemes have simulated heavy rainfall in the S-SE and NE regions and light rainfall in other regions of the country as shown in Fig. 3(d- f)). Maximum rainfall of 158, 157, 144, 135 and 133 mm are simulated by FE and 135, 131, 134, 141 and 108 mm by Thompson scheme at Chittagong, Sitakunda, Feni, Teknaf and Cox’s Bazar respectively, which is matched with the observed maximum rainfall position but maximum rainfall position is shifted from Hatiya towards E-NE region i.e. Feni region.

Maximum rainfall of 169, 155, 140, 112 and 109 mm are simulated by WSM6 at Chittagong, Sitakunda, Teknaf, Sandwip and Kutubdia. The model simulated maximum rainfall in the SE region is matched with the observed rainfall and minimum rainfall is also matched all through the country. MYDM and MDM schemes have simulated heavy rainfall in the S-SE and northern regions and light rainfall in other regions of the country (Fig. 3g & h). Maximum rainfall amounts of 143, 143, 140, 117, 112 and 110 mm are simulated by MYDM and the amounts of 142, 153, 149, 146, 151 and 138 mm are simulated by MDM scheme at Teknaf, Chittagong, Sitakunda, Kutubdia, Feni and Cox’s Bazar respectively, which are matched with the observed maximum rainfall position.

CAM, SBU and WDM6 schemes have simulated heavy rainfall in the S-SE and NE regions and light rainfall in other regions of the country as shown in Fig. 3(i-k). Maximum rainfall amounts of 146, 137, 136, 129 and 111 mm are simulated by CAM and the amounts 159, 140, 125, 112 and 118 mm by SBU and 155, 140, 102, 133 and 105 mm by WDM6 at Chittagong, Teknaf, Cox’s Bazar, Kutubdia and Sandwip respectively, which are matched with the observed maximum rainfall position. The model simulated maximum rainfall position is matched with the observed rainfall position in the SE region. NSSL-2 scheme has been simulated heavy rainfall in the S-SE and northern regions and light rainfall in the centre to NW and SW regions as shown in Fig. 3(l). Maximum rainfall amounts simulated at Mymensingh, Chittagong, Sitakunda, Teknaf and Cox’s Bazar are 159, 149, 135, 129 and 108 mm respectively.

The model simulated maximum rainfall for different microphysics schemes is matched with the observed rainfall in the SE region and observed heavy rainfall position is shifted from Hatiya towards Feni region.

36

Fig.4: Distribution of 24 hour model simulated rainfall using different MPs on 24 June 2015 all over Bangladesh.

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

88 E 89 E 90 E 91 E 92 E

21 N 22 N 23 N 24 N 25 N 26 N

BarisalBhola Bogra

Chandpur Chuadanga

Comilla Dhaka Dinajpur

Faridpur

Feni

Hatiya Ishurdi

Jessore Madaripur M.Court Mymensingh Rajshahi

Satkhira

Sitakunda Srimangal Sylhet

Tangail

Teknaf Rangpur

Khulna Mongla

Khepupara Patuakhali

Chittagong

Cox's Bazar Kutubdia

Rangamati Sandwip

(a)KS _(b)Lin

(g) MYDM

(f)TH

(d)FE (e)WSM6

(c)WSM3

(i)CAM (h)MDM

(j)SBU (k)WDM6 (l)NSSL-2

37