CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
9.2 RECOMMENDATIONS
1. In arriving at estimates of gross domestic production of food grains, the current process is time consuming inefficient, and subject to biases; and so it is important to adopt a more scientific method of calculating total production.
2. The aggregate picture of food balance over the year is somewhat misleading as it is likely to mask significant variations in availability over specific periods within the fiscal year. For monitoring availability and prices, it is important to compute food balances over specific periods within a year and adopt appropriate measures.
3. Institutional mechanisms are needed to generate regular information based on credible monitoring of food market situation and prices and for disseminating relevant information on likely developments to concerned stakeholders for timely action.
4. In addition to coordination at the national level, efforts are needed to institutionalize more effective and joint coordination (e.g. among field units of BBS, Ministry of Agriculture, and FPMU) to generate more realistic estimates of production based on uniform and mutually agreed methodology at the sub- national levels.
5. FPMU considers public foodgrain stock only for preparing foodgrains balance sheet without any accounting of private stock. The total population in a year is a important parameter for estimating total foodgrains consumption requirements. FPMU uses a projected population which is based on assumption. So that FPMU, BBS AND Ministry of Agriculture should be adapted a Skill full and effective supervision and monitoring system which provide smooth food distribution operation
REFERENCES :
1. National Food Policy, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, GoB, 2006.
2. Database on Food Situation Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, GoB, 2009.
3. Hossain, M., Naher, F. and, Shahabuddin, Q, “Food Security and Nutrition in Banglades: Progress and Determinates”, International Rice Research Institute, Manila, Philippines, 2006.
4. Hillier, F.S. and Lieberman, G.J., “Introduction to Operations Research”, Hoden-Day Inc., USA, 1980.
5. Chen, H., Daniel D., Particia, M. and Daugherty, J., “Firm-wide integration and firm performance”, International Journal of Logistics Management, Vol.
18, No. 1, Pp. 5-21, 2007.
6. White, W.D. and Absher, K., “Positioning of retail stores in Central and Eastern Europe”, European Journal of Marketing, Vol. 41, Issue ¾, Pp. 292- 306, 2007.
7. Tha Hamdy A., “Operations Research An Introduction”, Prentice-Hall of India Private Limited, New Delhe-110001, 2006.
8. Gupta P.K. and Hera D.S., “Problems in Operations Research; Principles and Salutions” S. Chanda & Company Ltd. New delhi, 1995.
9. Bala B.K. and Satter M.A. and Mohiuddin Md. Golam, “Simulation of Food Grain Storage Management System in Bangladesh”.
10. Goletti Francesco, Ahmed Raisuddin and Chowdhury Nuimuddin, “ Optimal Stock For the Public Foodgrain Distribution System in Banglades”, International Food Policy Research Institute.
11. Food Market Price, Stocks and Public Food Distribution System, Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) Ministry of Food. June 17, 2002.
12. Rationalizing Food Demand and Supply Estimates: An Exploratory Note, Policy Analysis Unit (PAU), Bangladesh Bank, June 2008.
APPENDIX
Table 1 -Food grain Availability and Requirement(thousand m. tons)
Domestic Production
Net
Production Mid-year Foodgrain Food Private Public Domestic Net Per Capita Rice (Gross) (deduct 10% Population Consumption Gap Imports Distri- Procu- Domestic Availabilty Consumption
for seed
(million)
** Requirement* (surplus) bution* rement Availability (gram/day) Requirement*
Feed and (453.6 gm
(88% in 453.6 gm Wheat Total Wastage) /day/capita) ( 7- 5)
(5+9+10-
11) /day/capita)
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1803 20665 18599 125 20696 2097 1135 1621 617 20738 455 18212
1908 21813 19631 127 21027 1395 3480 2134 753 24492 528 18503
1840 24907 22416 129 21358 -1058 1234 1900 967 24583 522 18795
1673 26759 24083 131 21689 -2394 1063 1774 1088 25832 540 19086
1606 25905 23315 133 22020 -1295 1280 1464 1053 25005 521 19378
1507 26694 24025 135 22351 -1674 2966 1435 947 27479 558 19669
1253 27443 24699 137 22682 -2016 2480 987 843 27323 546 19960
76 26133 23520 139 23013 -506 2980 1367 899 26968 532 20252
735 27265 24539 141 23345 -1194 2265 1243 945 27102 527 20543
737 28055 25250 143 23676 -1574 2209 1480 1139 27800 533 20835
seed feed and wastage has been calculated @ 10%
** Population figures are adjusted by Population Census, 2001 Sources: BBS & DG Food
Table 2- Availability of Rice and Wheat(thousand m. tons) 9.5 Availability Percentage Share
Year Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat
1 2 3 4 5 6
Fiscal Availability Percentage Share
Year Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat
1 2 3 4 5 6
1997/98 18113 2639 20752 87% 13%
1998/99 20608 3884 24492 84% 16%
1999/00 21307 3276 24583 87% 13%
2000/01 23267 2577 25844 90% 10%
2001/02 21909 3105 25014 88% 12%
2002/03 24165 3313 27478 88% 12%
2003/04 24167 3155 27322 88% 12%
2004/05 24042 2929 26971 89% 11%
2005/06 24439 2664 27103 90% 10%
2006/07 25409 2366 27775 91% 9%
Sources: DG/Food, BBS and NBR
Table 3 - Foodgrain Balance in Bangladesh(thousand m. tons)
Items 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 Mid-Year
Population 125 127 129 131 133 135 137 139 141 143
( millions) Net Foodgrain
Requirement 20696 21027 21358 21689 22020 22351 22682 23013 23345 23676 (@453.6
gm/day
/capita)
Gross
Foodgrain 20665 21813 24907 26759 25905 26694 27443 26133 27266 28055
Production
Net
Foodgrain
Production 18599 19631 22416 24083 23315 24025 24699 23520 24539 25250 ( 90% of
Gross
Production)
Foodgrain
Surplus 2097 1396 (1058) (2394) (1295) (1674) (2016) (506) (1195) (1574) Sources: BBS and Ministry of Food & Disaster Management.
NB: The figures in parenthesis denote surplus.
Table 4 -Government Domestic Aman Procurement(thousand m. tons) AMAN
Target Actual
Price (Tk/Qntl)
Period of Procurement Year Paddy Rice
in
Rice Paddy Rice in
Rice Paddy Rice Start Close
1997 270 120 300 1 0 1 700 1070 8-Dec 28-Feb
1998 75 200 250 0 0 0 760 1200 1-Nov 28-Feb
1999 75 200 250 16 224 235 800 1250 15-Dec 31-Mar
2000 73 200 250 54 199 236 800 1250 3-Dec 31-Mar
2001 146 150 250 13 103 112 800 1250 7-Dec 31-Mar
2002 146 100 200 1 18 19 840 1280 1-Jan 14-Mar
2003 73 150 200 17 132 144 840 1280 15-Nov 28-Feb
2004 73 150 200 0 0 0 860 1310 25-Nov 28-Feb
2005 42 175 200 0 83 83 925 1400 25-Nov 31-Mar
2006 37 175 200 0 163 163 1000 1600 1-Dec 15-Mar
2007 75 150 200 0 0 0 1200 2000 20-Nov 28-Feb
Source: Ministry of Food and Disaster Management Note:Aman per quintal 1400+bonus 150(2005)
Table 5 - Government Domestic Boro Procurement(thousand m. tons)
('000' m. ton) BORO
Target Actual Price
(Tk/Qntl) Period of Procurement Year Paddy Rice
in
Rice Paddy Rice in
Rice Paddy Rice Start Close
1997 200 120 250 189 121 244 670 1100 7-May 15-Oct
1998 203 282 400 76 214 264 755 1200 7-May 30-Oct
1999 150 500 600 151 507 604 825 1300 19-Apr 30-Sep
2000 154 500 600 134 513 600 825 1300 20-Apr 7-Nov
2001 154 500 600 130 402 487 825 1300 20-Apr 31-Jul
2002 154 600 700 81 576 629 840 1325 25-Apr 31-Aug
2003 154 750 850 98 691 754 840 1325 20-Apr 31-Aug
2004 154 700 800 38 722 747 840 1325 25-Apr 31-Aug
2005 39 978 1000 20 919 931 925 1450 25-Apr 31-Oct
2006 300 1000 1200 15 1025 1039 975 1550 20-Apr 15-Nov 2007 300 1000 1200 6 702 706 1125 1800 1-May 31-Oct
2008 300 1200 1500 1800 2800 16-Apr ,31-Aug
Source: Ministry of Food and Disaster Management Note:Boro per quintal 1450+Bonus 50(2005)
Table 6 - Government Domestic Wheat Procurement(thousand m. tons)
WHEAT
Procurement Price Procurement duration Year Target Actual (Tk/Qntl) Start Close
1997 120 103 870 3-Apr-97 30-Jun-97
1998 225 222 880 15-Mar-98 15-Sep-98
1999 280 255 880 15-Mar-99 31-Jul-99
2000 250 211 890 4-Apr-00 31-Jul-00
2001 300 297 890 15-Mar-01 31-Jul-01
2002 400 360 900 15-Mar-02 31-Jul-02
2003 200 64 925 15-Mar-03 30-Jun-03
2004* 150 15 950 20-Mar-04 30-Jun-04
2005 50 1 1200 24-Mar-05 30-Jun-05
2006 50 1 1450 28-Mar-06 30-Jun-06
2007 50 0 1800 18-Mar-07 28-Jun-07
2008 50 0 2600 1-Apr-08 30-Jun-08
Source : DG Food
*In Wheat/2004 14,818 m.t by Local Tender
Table 7 - Public Foodgrain Distribution by Commodity (thousand m. tons)
Year Rice Wheat Total Share of Total
Rice Wheat
1997/98 529 1092 1621 32.6% 67.4%
1998/99 530 1604 2134 24.9% 75.1%
1999/00 876 1025 1900 46.1% 53.9%
2000/01* 984 790 1774 55.5% 44.5%
2001/02* 648 816 1464 44.3% 55.7%
2002/03* 761 674 1435 53.0% 47.0%
2003/04* 628 359 987 64.4% 35.6%
2004/05* 1,102 265 1,367 80.6% 19.4%
2005/06 1,008 237 1,245 81.0% 19.0%
2006/07 1,288 192 1,480 87.0% 13.0%
Source: Ministry of Food & Disaster Management and DGF
Table 8 -Public Foodgrain Distribution by Category(thousand m. tons) Year Sales Non-Sales Total Distribution
Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total Rice Wheat Total 1997/98 287 109 397 241 983 1224 529 1092 1621 1998/99 144 116 260 386 1488 1874 530 1604 2134 1999/00 132 159 291 744 865 1609 876 1025 1900 2000/01 128 139 267 856 651 1507 984 790 1774 2001/02 128 126 254 520 690 1210 648 816 1464 2002/03 316 326 642 445 348 793 761 674 1435 2003/04 146 121 267 482 238 720 628 359 987 2004/05 389 116 505 713 149 862 1102 265 1367 2005/06 226 120 346 782 117 899 1008 237 1245 2006/07 579 126 705 709 66 775 1288 192 1480 Source: Ministry of Food & Disaster Management and DGF
Table 9 -Foodgrain Imports in Bangladesh(thousand m. tons)
Food Aid Arrival GoB Commercial Private Commercial
Total National Imports Fiscal
Year
R W T R W T R W T R W T
1997/98 0 549 549 92 156 249 993 142 1135 1085 848 1933 1998/99 60 1174 1235 404 1602 2006 2660 820 3480 3124 3597 6721
1999/00 5 865 870 0 0 0 428 806 1234 433 1671 2104
2000/01* 32 459 491 0 0 0 529 534 1063 561 993 1554
2001/02* 8 502 510 0 0 0 118 1171 1289 126 1673 1799 2002/03* 4 250 254 0 0 0 1553 1414 2966 1557 1664 3221 2003/04* 4 28 33 0 29 29 797 1684 2480 801 1741 2542 2004/05* 27 263 290 72 30 101 1197 1783 2980 1296 2075 3371 2005/06* 10 190 200 34 73 107 498 1766 2264 542 2029 2571 2006/07* 25 66 91 0 186 186 695 1514 2209 721 1766 2487 Source: MoFDM & DGF Note : R - Rice W - Wheat T - Total
*including Food Aid wheat receipts for Direct Distribution by World Vision
Table 10 -Fiscal Subsidy on Public Food Distribution(thousand m. tons)
( 000 m.ton) Fiscal PFDS Distribution Subsidy on Sales
Year
Non-
Sales Sales Total (Crore Taka)
1990/91 798 1574 2372 381
1991/92 924 1421 2345 344
1992/93 617 456 1073 153
1993/94 845 531 1376 167
1994/95 1065 508 1573 273
1995/96 1146 649 1795 299
1996/97 1128 264 1392 345
1997/98 1224 397 1621 389
1998/99 1874 260 2134 329
1999/00 1609 291 1900 363
2000/01 1506 268 1774 334
2001/02 1208 254 1463 335
2002/03 791 642 1434 464
2003/04 708 267 975 303
2004/05 1118 265 1383 506
2005/06 899 346 1245 346
2006/07 759 704 1463 705
Source: DG Food & Ministry of Food and Disaster Management
Table 11 (i)-District-wise Public Foodgrain Storage Capacity(in metric tons)
LSD CSD Silo All Types
District
No Capacity No Capacity No Capacity No Capacity
Dinajpur 25 45500 1 20500 26 66000
Thakurgaon 12 28000 12 28000
Panchagarh 8 14500 8 14500
Rangpur 9 15000 9 15000
Lalmonirhat 7 10000 7 10000
Kurigram 9 19000 9 19000
Gaibandha 11 24300 11 24300
Nilphamari 7 16500 7 16500
Bogra 22 33000 1 40250 1 25000 24 98250
Joypurhat 7 17350 7 17350
Rajshahi 12 20750 12 20750
Natore 7 7500 7 7500
Noagaon 19 34250 19 34250
Nowabganj 7 18500 7 18500
Pabna 10 22000 1 40060 11 62060
Sirajganj 10 27000 10 27000
Rajshahi
Div 182 353150 3 100810 1 25000 186 478960
Source: DG Food continued
Table 11 (iii)-District-wise Public Foodgrain Storage Capacity(in metric tons)
LSD CSD Silo All Types
District
No. Capacity No. Capacity No. Capacity No. Capacity
Dhaka 5 6750 2 40000 7 46750
Narayanganj 3 3500 1 20630 1 50000 5 74130
Narshindhi 7 16250 7 16250
Munshiganj 6 12600 6 12600
Gazipur 5 9000 5 9000
Manikganj 8 13500 8 13500
Mymensingh 19 32750 1 27560 20 60310
Netrokona 14 16500 14 16500
Kirhoreganj 14 26700 14 26700
Jamalpur 8 15950 8 15950
Sherpur 5 15500 5 15500
Tangail 14 33368 14 33368
Rajbari 4 10000 4 10000
Faridpur 8 15500 8 15500
Gopalganj 7 10000 7 10000
Madaripur 7 18500 7 18500
Shariatpur 6 11000 6 11000
Dhaka Div. 140 267368 4 88190 1 50000 145 405558
Source: DG Food continued
Table 12 - Production and Import of Sugar by Year(thousand m. tons)
Year Production Import Availability
1990/1991 246 18 264
1991/1992 196 27 223
1992/1993 187 150 337
1993/1994 222 53 274
1994/1995 270 152 422
1995/1996 184 0 184
1996/1997 135 102 237
1997/1998 166 127 293
1998/1999 153 134 287
1999/2000 131 147 278
2000/2001 98 225 323
2001/2002 204 250 454
2002/2003 177 530 707
2003/2004 119 586 705
2004/2005 107 1038 1145
2005/2006 133 368 501
2006/2007 165 699 864
Source: BSFIC and BBS