For planting indirect costs (customage tax, tax and VAT, landing costs, C&F costs, etc.) "by using" multiplication factor ": (costs in Lakh Taka). Aanvanklik spreek die skrywer sy hartlike dank uit aan die Almagtige wat die geduld en potensiaal gegee het om hierdie proefskrif in die lig te stuur. The author has the pleasure for his sincere thanks and in -depth thanks to his supervisor Dr.
The author is indebted to persons of Shikalbaha, Ashuganj and Chandpur Power Station for proving their support and valuable information in their respective fields to carry out this work. Finally, the author thanks his parents, brother, wife and friends for their encouragement and moral support to complete this thesis smoothly.
Abstract
Chapter-1
Introduction
- Back Ground
- Business Opportunity
- Similar Types of Plant under Operation
- Scope of the Study
- Chapter 1 presents introduction and background of the study. Chapter 2 presents specific objectives of this work and also outline of the methodology which have
- presents the technical feasibility analysis that includes the feasibility of the proposed plant location at Shikalbaha, availability of raw materials, selection of
- Chapter 4 presents market feasibility that means the generation and demand situation of the products of the plant in Bangladesh has been studied. Chapter 5 presents
However, due to the availability of natural gas at relatively favorable prices compared to distillate fuels, many countries around the world use gas turbines as base load units [6, 7]. The use of gas power plants has increased in recent years mainly due to the development of gas turbines with nominal power [7]. Due to insufficient gas supply, the gas-fired power plant failed to operate at its maximum production capacity, which was a total of 600-800 MW.
Moreover, the power projects, dependent on gas, could not be commissioned on time due to a shortage of gas for the plants [10]. On the above circumstances, there is no alternative to set up the proposed plant at the Shikalbaha site at the shortest possible time with duel fuel facilities to mitigate the present power crisis to some extent.
Chapter-2
Objectives & Methodology
Objectives of the Present Work
Methodology
Chapter-3
Technical Feasibility
- Site Selection
- Plant Selection
- Fuel Selection
- Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
- Major Machinery Parts of this Project
Since the proposed installation is the combined cycle, the water requirement for the steam unit is greater than that for the GT unit. With the commissioning of the proposed plant, the supply situation in the Chittagong area will be improved. In addition, the proposed plant will need to store HFO for 15 days for reliable operation of the plant.
According to the projection report of 'The Institute of Energy Economics – Japan (IEEJ)', production will exceed demand in 2019 and 2020 and the demand-supply gap will be resolved. Based on this criterion, financial and economic analysis of the proposed installation with 100% HFO and 100% Gas.
Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG )
Process Description
A motorized shut-off valve shall be provided upstream of the supply water regulator as well as motorized bypass valve. The feed water must be circulated through the circulation pump in each heat recovery steam generator drum. A closed fresh water cooling system must be provided for equipment components that require cooling water.
Make-up water should be supplied from the condensate system to the cooling water header tank. Gas turbine generators and steam turbine generator shall be of open circuit air cooled type.
Organizational Structure
The control system shall include a “Base-Peak” selection that allows the operator to select the unit load at base or peak power. During parallel or isolated operation, the load shall be capable of manual control in addition to the automatic controls. supplied during parallel or isolated operation. When activating the stop command, the load on the unit is gradually reduced through preset programming, the generator circuit breaker is opened, the speed is reduced to the rotational speed of the rotating mechanism, the rotating mechanism must be turned off. automatically turns on and the device returns to standby status.
The units shall be automatically prevented from starting or, if in operation, automatically shut down upon the occurrence of abnormal conditions or faults that would be harmful to the unit. All auxiliary sequence, timing voltage, synchronization, load sensing and protection relays necessary for full automatic control and protection of the unit must be provided.
Chapter-4
Market Feasibility
Generation & Demand Situation in Bangladesh
- Generation Situation of Power in Bangladesh
- Demand Situation of Power in Bangladesh
- Demand Forecast of Power
- Observation & Comment
The sorry state of electricity supply is evident from the load shedding that is maintained day by day. EES 2010 forecasts electricity demand based on GDP growth and electricity demand elasticity. The electricity demand forecast shows that the demand for electricity will grow by around 10 percent over the next decade.
So the power shortage according to PDB data is only based on the locked area. If the total energy demand is considered, then it will take a considerable time and the demand will be almost three times the installed generation capacity.
Chapter-5
Economic Feasibility
Calculation of Total Fixed Capital Investment
Here, in this exercise, the relevant values of power factor 'a' are taken in Table 5.1 and the relevant direct and indirect costs of the device are given in Tables 5.2 to 5.4. For Indirect Plant Costs (Establishment and Commissioning)' using 'Multiplying Factor' (Cost in Lakh Taka) Cost for. Despite the direct and indirect plant costs, there are some other costs in total capital investment.
Sub-Total of (I II) Construction Works including cost of Civil Works for Residential, Non-Residential and fuel discharge system. So Total Fixed Capital Investment = Sum of (Sub-Totals I. II, III, IV) and (Materials, Engineering and Construction (EPC) Cost) plus on-site training cost plus PSI cost.
Calculation of Total Operating Capital Investment
For each cost item, a certain part will be fixed and the rest will vary according to plant capacity. For each cost item, it can be assumed that 30% of the cost will remain if the plant's operating capacity is minimum or zero. In table 5.6 below, the cost calculation is presented for the plant capacities of 300 MW.
Timmerhaus, McGraw-Hill, Depreciation Range of Life Class Assets Depreciation life of assets used in Power Plant is 20 years [20] So the annual depreciation rate is 5%. For the calculation of amortization, 33.33 years have been estimated and the annual rate of amortization is 3% in this project.
Cost of Raw Materials
Costs for VAT
Calculation of total Output
VAT Calculation for 300 MW capacity plant
Income Calculation
Financial and Economic Evaluation of the Project
Calculation of Payback Period
For 300 MW capacity projects, annual cash flows are found as following table-5.8 (Data is taken from table-5.7 and section-5.7). Annual cash flows for 300 MW dual fuel combined cycle power plant Table 5.8 Annual cash flows for 300 MW dual fuel combined cycle power plant. In the table above, the start of year-4 (or the end of year-3) should be considered as zero time.
The present value of the investment costs at the start of the return (at the end of year 3) will be. So the modified payback period in the following table 5.9 (TK. in Lakh) Table 5.9 Discounted payback period for a 300 MW plant (fuel – gas). Historically, payback period has been used as a measure of a project's risk, because liquidity relates to how quickly an investment can be recouped.
Since the payback period for the 300 MW power plant is estimated at less than 7 years (when the fuel will be gas) and 5 years (when the fuel will be HFO), the liquidity of the project is good and the return risk is low.
Net Present Value (NPV)
Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)
Calculation of NPV and BCR
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
In the table above we can see that at a discount rate of i = 19.57% the difference between the discounted total benefits and the total costs will be closer to zero. In the table above we can see that at a discount rate of i = 27.6% the difference between the discounted total benefits and the total costs will be closer to zero.
Cost Estimation and Economic Evaluation Summary
Chapter-6
SWOT Analysis
Strength and Weakness: A firm's strengths are its resources and capabilities that can be used as a basis for developing a competitive advantage. To know about the strength of a company, it is important to analyze about what the company does well and what makes the company stand out from competitors. To determine the weakness, we can list the areas that are a struggle for the company.
Opportunities & Threats: External analysis of the environment may reveal some new opportunities for profit and growth. It is therefore important to analyze the external environment and try to discover the areas where the strengths are not being fully utilized. Threat analysis is important to understand and assess the damage that can occur due to the impact of the external environment.
To find out the threats to the company, the analyst should study the strength and weakness of competitors and their new business trends that can amplify the weaknesses. Apart from that, all other external threats that can hinder the success of the business should also be carefully examined. Labor cost can be shown as strength of our proposed plant as we get it at lower cost in Bangladesh than any other country.
In addition, the expansion of 60 MW, 150 MW and 55 MW rental power plants are connected to the same substation with the same grid. To evacuate power from the proposed power station, it will be necessary to set up a 230/132 kV substation at the Shikalbaha power station site. Since 132 kV substations and required transmission line are already established here, we need to set up only 230 kV substations.
WEAKNESS
OPPORTUNITIES
Recently, the economic crisis in Europe and the political instability in the Middle East led the international oil market towards an unpredictable situation. As oil is one of the main raw materials for power plants and Bangladesh government imports most of their oil from the international market, the increasing price of oil in the international market will be an experience for the power industry. With this kind of poor infrastructure, it is quite difficult to achieve the government's target of producing the extra power in the coming years.
In Bangladesh, there is political influence in the tender process and even in the selection process of Concern Company. Sometimes the donors withdraw their donation even at the last stage of the selection process because of this political influence. As power occupies a lucrative sector in market demand, many competitors tend to enter the market.
So, it can be difficult to sustain a market with an increasing profit graph for a long time if you face this competition.
Chapter-7
Conclusion
The values of the financial and economic parameters specified in the project assignment show that for all power plant capacities except 150 MW NPV (F) and NPV (E) are high `+ve'. BCR (F) and BCR (E) for all capacities except 150 MW are greater than 1 for gas and for HFO fuel BCR (F) and BCR (E) for all 4 plant capacities are greater than 1. So it is certain that power plant project economically and financially feasible for 225 MW, 300 MW and 450 MW power plant.
Being conservative in feedstock supply from Petrobangla and BPC and considering profitability and cost of operation, installation of 300 MW plants instead of 225 MW and 450 MW can be recommended.
12] Daily Report on Gas and Condensate Production and Distribution, 7 March 2013, Petrobangla website: www.petrobangla.org.bd. 14] BPDB, Ministry of Power, Energy & Mineral Resources, "Survey Report 2012-13", Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh, 2013. Planning Commission,.
ANNEXURE – 1
Cost Estimation and Economic Analysis of 150 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant at Shikalbaha
150 MW Total Investment Cost
Detailed Breakdown of Investment Cost
150 MW Annual Phasing Cost
150 MW Economic Value of Investment Cost
150 MW Financial Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –Gas)
150 MW Financial Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –HFO)
150 MW Economical Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –Gas)
150 MW Economical Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –HFO)
Generation Cost / Unit
Benefit Cost Ratio (Financial) Fuel-Gas
Benefit Cost Ratio (Financial) Fuel-HFO
Benefit Cost Ratio (Economical) Fuel-Gas
Benefit Cost Ratio (Economical ) Fuel-HFO
150 MW Internal Rate of Return (Financial)
150 MW Internal Rate of Return (Financial )
150 MW Internal Rate of Return (Economic)
SCHEDULE
ANNEXURE – 2
225 MW Total Investment Cost
225 MW Annual Phasing Cost
225 MW Economic Value of Investment Cost
225 MW Financial Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –Gas)
225 MW Financial Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –HFO)
225 MW Economical Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –Gas)
225 MW Economical Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –HFO)
225 MW Internal Rate of Return (Financial)
225 MW Internal Rate of Return (Financial )
225 MW Internal Rate of Return (Economic)
ANNEXURE – 3
300 MW Total Investment Cost
300 MW Annual Phasing Cost
300 MW Economic Value of Investment Cost
300 MW Financial Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –Gas)
300 MW Financial Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –HFO)
300 MW Economical Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –Gas)
300 MW Economical Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –HFO)
300 MW Internal Rate of Return (Financial)
300 MW Internal Rate of Return (Financial )
300 MW Internal Rate of Return (Economic)
ANNEXURE – 4
450 MW Total Investment Cost
450 MW Annual Phasing Cost
450 MW Economic Value of Investment Cost
450 MW Financial Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –Gas)
450 MW Financial Operating / Recurring Cost Table (Fuel –HFO)
450 MW Internal Rate of Return (Financial)
450 MW Internal Rate of Return (Financial )
450 MW Internal Rate of Return (Economic)
