Introduction:
Many gases present in the atmosphere are known as greenhouse gases (GHG) because these prevent heat from escaping from the earth. The gases are: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydroflurocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. If the amount of these gases increase in the atmosphere, earth's temperature will increase. Scientists have named this phenomenon “Global Warming” and the associated change to the atmosphere is known as
“Climate Change”.(Source: CDM Project). The Earth’s climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era, with some of these changes attributable to human activities. Human activities have increased the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (i.e., carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and tropospheric ozone (O3)) reached their highest recorded levels, primarily due to the combustion of fossil fuels, agriculture, and land-use changes. Globally it is likely that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in the instrumental record (1861-2000).
The increase in surface temperature over the 20th century for the Northern Hemisphere is likely to have been greater than that for any other century in the last thousand years. Insufficient data are available prior to the year 1960 in the Southern Hemisphere to compare the recent warming with changes over the last 1,000 years. Temperature changes have not been uniform globally but have varies over regions and different parts of the lower atmosphere. Changes in sea level, snow cover, ice extent, and precipitation are consistent with a warming climate near the Earth’s surface. Examples of these include a more active hydrological cycle with more heavy precipitation events and shifts in precipitation, widespread retreat of non-polar glaciers, increases in sea level and ocean-heat content, and decrease in snow cover and sea-ice extent and thickness.
Observed changes in regional climate have affected many physical and biological systems, and there are preliminary indicators that social and economic systems have been affected. Recent regional changes in climate, particularly increases in temperature, have already affected hydrological systems and terrestrial and marine ecosystems in many parts of the world.
(Source: University of Pennsylvania Scholarly Commons reports)
Climate change:
Climate change is one of the most important and urgent environmental problems that the international community has to address. Also, climate change is a very difficult environmental challenge to tackle effectively, positively, and expeditiously. First of all, this introduction part will explain why climate change is a big challenge for global society, pointing out three main difficulties as follows.
Uncertainty
First, the mechanism of climate change has yet to be revealed completely. There are many scientific arguments to be cleared in climate change. Therefore, the international community has not reached agreement on how it should tackle climate change. This uncertainty is one of the reasons why the United States withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol. It is central to the difficulty of tackling climate change.
Trade-off between environment and economy
Second, climate change is related with all of 3E Problem: Energy Security, Economic Growth, and Environmental Protection. Especially, its relation to economy is a difficult challenge. This is because greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are widely considered to be a main factor for climate change, but they mainly generate through economic activities. Further, most people believe that reducing GHG emissions could retard economic growth and generate additional costs. When society tries to address climate change, it is indispensable to overcome the most popular challenge for environment problems: the trade-off between economy and environment.
Political conflict
Third, there has been a conflict between developed and developing nations in addressing climate change. Current climate change problems should be attributed to past economic development by developed nations, which did not care about the environment.
However, developing nations are also suffering from climate change. For example, Bangladesh is losing its national land area due to rising sea levels resulting from global warming. On the other, developed countries are requiring that developing countries should also own some responsibilities for mitigating climate change. This is because developing countries cannot grow their economy without caring about the environment, as developed countries did in the past.
However, developing nations naturally hesitate to take responsibilities because they do not want to retard economic growth. Thus, while climate change is a common challenge in the world, it is difficult to engage all the international community in the collective action. Climate change is one of the most difficult political challenges that the international community has ever faced.
(Source: University of Pennsylvania Scholarly Commons reports)
Kyoto Protocol:
The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC or FCCC), aimed at fighting global warming. The UNFCCC is an international environmental treaty with the goal of achieving the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. (Source: Wikipedia). So, the Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012.
The major distinction between the Protocol and the Convention is that while the Convention encouraged industrialized countries to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol commits them to do so. Recognizing that developed countries are principally responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere as a result of more than 150 years of industrial activity, the Protocol places a heavier burden on developed nations under the principle of
“common but differentiated responsibilities. (Source: UNFCCC report)
History of the Kyoto Protocol:
The Protocol was initially adopted at the Conference of the Parties (COP)-3 on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, opened for signature on March 1998, and closed on March 1999. It is the first framework stipulating the reduction target of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions that industrialized nations should achieve mandatorily. However, a lot of unfinished action assignments remained after COP-3; hence important rules about operating the Kyoto Protocol were argued over at following up COP-rounds. At COP-6, the basic rules for the Kyoto Protocol were agreed, and at COP-7, important details about operation of the Kyoto Protocol were negotiated, and this meeting produced “Marrakech Accords”. The Kyoto Protocol finally came into force on February 2005, following ratification by Russia on November 2004.
(Source: University of Pennsylvania Scholarly Commons reports).
Objectives of the Kyoto Protocol:
Based on the main objective of the UNFCCC, the goal of the Kyoto Protocol is also “to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference was to establish a legally binding international agreement, whereby all the participating nations commit themselves to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from 1990 levels by the year 2012.
According to the treaty, in 2012, Annex I countries must have fulfilled their obligations of reduction of greenhouse gases emissions established for the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol's first round commitments are the first detailed step of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Protocol establishes a structure of rolling emission reduction commitment periods, with negotiations on second period commitments that were scheduled to start in 2005. The first period emission reduction commitments expire at the end of 2012.
The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Even if Annex I Parties succeed in meeting their first-round commitments, much greater emission reductions will be required in future to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations. (Source: Wikipedia)
Participating Country:
According to the UNFCCC, as of October 2006, the Kyoto Protocol covers a total of 165 countries globally and over 60% of total industrialized nations’ GHG emissions in 1990.
However, the United States, which is the largest emitter of GHG, already withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol. Australia also withdrew from it. Croatia and Turkey have not ratified the Protocol yet although they are classified as an industrialized nation (Annex 1 country). (Source:
University of Pennsylvania Scholarly Commons reports).
Under the Protocol, 37 countries ("Annex I countries") commit themselves to a reduction of four greenhouse gases (GHG) (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by them, and all member countries give general commitments. Annex I countries agreed to reduce their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping, but are in addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.
(Source: Wikipedia)
Fig: Countries in the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol.
Countries that ratified the UNFCC (188)
Countries that Ratified Kyoto (165)
Annex 1 (36)
Non-Annex 1 (129
15 EU countries before 2004 expansion (Germany, France, UK, etc), Other EU countries (Czech, Hungary, etc), Non-EU countries (Norway, Switzerland, etc), Former Soviet Union countries (Russia, Ukraine, etc), Japan, Canada
Large emitter countries (Brazil, China, and India), MDCs (Mexico, South Korea, etc), Oil countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc), EU countries (Cyprus and Malta), LDCs (Ethiopia, Tanzania, etc), Small Island countries (Fiji, Jamaica, etc), etc
Countries that Not-Ratified Kyoto (23
Annex 1 (4)
Non-Annex 1 (19
Australia, Croatia, Turkey, and USA
Kazakhstan, Levant, Tonga, etc
Principle of the Kyoto Protocol:
The Kyoto Protocol has established not only GHG reduction targets for industrialized countries but also an international framework for addressing global warming in cooperation within the international community. At its heart of the framework, the Kyoto Protocol establishes the following principles.
Countries are separated into two categories: industrialized countries, referred to as Annex 1 countries, which have a responsibility for reducing GHG emissions; and non- industrialized countries, referred to as Non-Annex 1 countries, which have no responsibility for reducing GHG emissions. This is because current global warming resulting from historical GHG accumulation should be attributable to past economic development by industrialized countries.
Annex 1 countries are assigned the mandatory target of reducing its GHG emissions between 2008 and 2012. The reduction targets are determined based on countries 1990 emission levels. The total GHG reduction is 5.2% decreasing from 1990 levels.
In order for the Kyoto Protocol to go into effect, both of the following conditions should be met.
(1) The Kyoto Protocol should secure the support of Annex 1 countries that account for at least 55% of total Annex 1 countries’ 1990 emissions.
(2) The Kyoto Protocol should be ratified by at least 55 countries.
Annex 1 countries can offset their GHG emissions by increasing the amount of GHG removal from the atmosphere by carbon sink activities such as afforestation and reforestation. The amount of GHG removed from the atmosphere through these activities generates credits known as removal units (RMUs).
Each Annex 1 country has an upper limit of carbon sink based on its forest area; for example, the Kyoto Protocol allows Japan to reduce its GHG emissions by 3.9% with carbon sink.
If an Annex 1 country fails to meet its reduction target, it must make up the difference in the second commitment period, plus a penalty of 30% of the non-achievement amount.
(Source: University of Pennsylvania Scholarly Commons reports)
The five principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:
Commitments to the Annex-countries. The heart of the Protocol lies in establishing commitments for the reduction of greenhouse gases that are legally binding for Annex I countries. Dividing the countries in different groups is one of the key concepts in making commitments possible, where only the Annex I countries in 1997, were seen as having the economic capacity to commit themselves and their industry. Making only the few nations in the Annex 1 group committed to the protocols limitations.
Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I countries are required to prepare policies and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more greenhouse gas emissions at home.
Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change.
Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol.
Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the Protocol.
(Source: Wikipedia)
The Mechanism the Kyoto Protocol:
The Kyoto Protocol establishes three innovative mechanisms known as the Kyoto Mechanism:
the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI), and Emission Trading.
These three mechanisms are designed to help Annex 1 countries reduce GHG emissions and achieve reduction targets at less cost and more efficiently. Any Annex 1 countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol can use the Kyoto Mechanism, provided that they comply with its methodological and reporting obligations. In addition, a government, which tries to utilize the Kyoto Mechanism, must show evidence that the utilization of the Kyoto Mechanism is supplemental to domestic efforts, which should be main in achieving their targets. However, there are no quantitative upper limits for the utilization of the Kyoto Mechanism.
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
Under the CDM, an Annex 1 country can implement a project that reduces GHG emissions in a Non-Annex 1 country. As a result of a project, Annex 1 countries will gain resulting certified emission reductions (CERs). Annex 1 countries can factor in these units in their reduction targets or deal with them with other Annex 1 nations freely. The CDM is also designed to help Non- Annex 1 countries promote sustainable development through introducing environment-friendly technologies. Thus, the CDM has two purposes: (1) to help Annex 1 countries achieve their reduction targets stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol and (2) to support the sustainable development of Non-Annex 1 countries. By means of the CDM, Non-Annex 1 countries will be able to pursue both technological and economic development with reduced environmental impact, and Annex 1 countries will be able to obtain, at relatively low cost, CERs. However, a project that utilizes technologies about nuclear energy cannot be acknowledged as a CDM project although nuclear energy generation produces much less CO2 than fossil fuel energy.
Joint Implementation (JI)
Under the JI, an Annex 1 country implements a project that reduces GHG emissions or increases RMUs in the region of another Annex 1 country.
A JI project is implemented between Annex 1 countries, unlike the CDM. As a result of a project, Annex 1 countries will gain resulting emission reduction units (ERUs) or additional RMUs. As well as the CDM, Annex 1 countries can factor in these units in their reduction targets or deal with them freely and a project that utilizes technologies about nuclear energy cannot be acknowledged as a JI project.
Emission Trading
Under Emission Trading, an Annex 1 country can transfer some of the emissions under its assigned amount, known as assigned amount units (AAUs), to another Annex 1 country that finds it relatively more difficult to meet its reduction target. It can also transfer CERs, ERUs, and RMUs, which are acquired through CDM projects, JI projects, or carbon sink activities.
(Source: University of Pennsylvania Scholarly Commons reports)
Stakeholders’ Position in the Kyoto Protocol
This section will examine how each country or group of countries tackles or deals with the Kyoto Protocol. Countries concerned should be categorized into the following six groups;
1. Countries supporting the Kyoto Protocol like EU countries,
2. Countries with difficulties in achieving their targets such as Japan and Canada,
3. Countries with big margins for emitting GHG like former Soviet Union countries,
4. Countries which have already withdrawn from the Kyoto Protocol such as the United States and Australia,
5. Countries which are not obliged to reduce GHG emissions, although they are large emitter of GHG such as China, India, Brazil, and other More Developed Countries (MDCs), and,
6. Countries which face the risk of coastal erosion resulting from increasing sea levels like the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).
(Source: University of Pennsylvania Scholarly Commons reports)
Emissions:
Per-capita emissions are a country's total emissions divided by its population. Per-capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries. This is one reason industrialized countries accepted responsibility for leading climate change efforts in the Kyoto negotiations. In Kyoto, the countries that took on quantified commitments for the first period (2008–12) corresponded roughly to those with per- capita emissions in 1990 of two tonnes of carbon or higher. In 2005, the top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See also the notes in the following section on the top-ten emitters in 2005). Countries with a Kyoto target made up 20% of total GHG emissions.
Another way of measuring GHG emissions is to measure the total emissions that have accumulated in the atmosphere over time. Over a long time period, cumulative emissions provide an indication of a country's total contribution to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. The International Energy Agency compared cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions for several countries and regions. Over the time period 1900-2005, the US accounted for 30% of total cumulative emissions; the EU, 23%; China, 8%; Japan, 4%; and India, 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative, energy-related CO2 emissions.
Top-ten emitters
What follows is a ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGs for 2005 (MNP, 2007). The first figure is the country's or region's emissions as a percentage of the global total. The second figure is the country's/region's per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG per-capita:
1. China – 17%, 5.8
2. United States3 – 16%, 24.1 3. European Union-273 – 11%, 10.6 4. Indonesia2 - 6%, 12.9
5. India – 5%, 2.1 6. Russia3 – 5%, 14.9 7. Brazil – 4%, 10.0 8. Japan3 – 3%, 10.6 9. Canada3 – 2%, 23.2 10. Mexico – 2%, 6.4
Fig: Carbon emissions from various global regions during the period 1800–2000 AD.
(Source: Wikipedia)
Successor Country on Kyoto protocol:
In the non-binding 'Washington Declaration' agreed on 16 February 2007, Heads of governments from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisage a global cap-and-trade system that would apply to both industrialized nations and developing countries, and hoped that this would be in place by 2009.
On 7 June 2007, leaders at the 33rd G8 summit agreed that the G8 nations would "aim to at least halve global CO2 emissions by 2050". The details enabling this to be achieved would be negotiated by environment ministers within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in a process that would also include the major emerging economies. A round of climate change talks under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007) concluded in 31 August 2007 with agreement on key elements for an effective international response to climate change. A key feature of the talks was a United Nations report that showed how efficient energy use could yield significant cuts in emissions at low cost. The talks were meant to set the stage for a major international meeting to be held in Nusa Dua, Bali, which started on 3 December 2007. The Conference was held in December 2008 in Poznań, Poland. One of the main topics on this meeting was the discussion of a possible implementation of avoided deforestation also known as Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) into the future Kyoto Protocol.
After the lack of progress leading to a binding commitment or an extension of the Kyoto commitment period in climate talks at COP 15 in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, there are several further rounds of negotiation COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico in 2010, South Africa in 2011 (COP 17), and in either Qatar or South Korea in 2012 (COP 18). Because any treaty change will require the ratification of the text by various countries' legislatures before the end of the commitment period Dec 31, 2012, it is likely that agreements in South Africa or South Korea/Qatar will be too late to prevent a gap between the commitment periods.
(Source: Wikipedia).
Kyoto Protocol and Bangladesh:
Bangladesh is a low carbon dioxide emitting country. For instance, the per capita carbon dioxide emission is estimated at 0.2 ton/year, while the average for developing countries is 1.6 ton/year.
In USA the per capita emission is 20 ton/year. The low GHG emission status however provides no relief from the effects of Global Warming because 1.5 meter rise in sea level would inundate an area of 22,000 sq.km of Bangladesh, affecting 17 million people. Obviously Bangladesh is likely to be one of the worst suffers of Global Warming. The other impacts of global warming would be on:
Agriculture
Bio diversity and Forestry
Human Health
Fisheries
Drainage
Fresh water (Source: CDM project)
While responsible for only 0.1% of the world’s GHG emissions, Bangladesh will bear severe consequences of global climate change. 29 Kofi Annan, United Nations Secretary General, said
“Sadly, Bangladesh figures prominently on the world stage: it is expected to suffer, more than any other place on earth, the devastating impact of climate change”. About two-thirds of Bangladesh populations are employed in the agricultural sector. Approximately 22% of Bangladesh’s land area is a coastal zone that accounts for 24% of agricultural added.
Accordingly, not only Bangladesh population but also its economy would be heavily affected by global climate change through rising sea levels. However, Bangladesh is one of the extremely poor nations, not being able to prevent or mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Its GNI per capita was only US $470 in 2005. Worse, Bangladesh is already suffering from the deterioration of its natural environment such as water contamination with arsenic. Thus, climate change poses Bangladesh further difficulty. Under the Kyoto Protocol, Bangladesh is classified as a Non-Annex 1 country. Bangladesh ratified the Protocol positively because it is already facing huge risk of climate change.
However, its relatively small size and poverty give its diplomats little leverage in the international negotiations. Now Bangladesh and other small island nations with big risk of coastal erosion have established an alliance, the Alliance of Small
Island States (AOSIS), in order to strengthen their bargaining power.
(Source: University of Pennsylvania Scholarly Commons reports)
Conclusion:
In the introduction, the paper points out three challenges for climate change. This section will re- examine these challenges based on all the analysis in this research paper.
First, uncertainties have posed various barriers for global society to reach agreement on how it should tackle climate change internationally and cooperatively. Although the Kyoto Protocol is the first international agreement stipulating participants’ mandatory efforts, it has many drawbacks, as mentioned. As the fact that the largest GHG emitter does not join it shows, every nation hesitates to implement actual countermeasures for an uncertain problem. In particular, it is difficult for stakeholders to perceive the risk of climate change without catastrophic disasters such as Katrina. Even with these disastrous events, some people will not admit its risk because the causal relation has yet to be revealed completely. Therefore, the paper argues that the practical risk of climate change should be clarified as the first priority, rather than clarifying the complete mechanism of climate change. On the other, global society can determine on addressing GHG emission reductions based on a certain background. It is certain that natural resources such as oil and coal are limited sources; hence the present generation has to save some of them for the future generations. From this perspective, we should shift to renewable energy sources, which emit less GHG emissions. In addition, another importance is that uncertainty is itself a reason to act now for no-regrets. Uncertainty should not become a reason for delaying action. Instead, an international framework should consist of a series of successive commitment periods, which allow targets to be revised based on the progress of science and technology.
Secondly, incentives for private sectors and technology advancement play an important part in mitigating confrontation between environment and economy. Private sectors will launch many projects if they consider that they can make profits through GHG emission reductions; hence incentive mechanisms such as the CDM and emission trading scheme should be utilized effectively. Furthermore, economic competitiveness of renewable energy should be strengthened in order to achieve economic growth and emission reductions simultaneously. Technology advancement for this is essential. Country-level policies stipulating minimum amounts of energy generation by renewable sources will be effective for driving this technology progress. In addition, some new approaches toward emission reductions, which are proposed in Section 8 such as non-binding targets, performance standards, and policy change, will be compatible with economic growth policy.
Thirdly, the biggest political challenge is to engage all the international community in mitigation efforts for climate change. Although the Kyoto Protocol entered into force, unfortunately this challenge still remains and rather it increases inequity feelings among global society. Of course no single equity perspective can be a basis for an international framework because of wide variance in national circumstances, however this inequity feeling should be decreased under Post-Kyoto and more countries should join and assume some responsibilities for mitigating climate change. A framework that treats participants as fairly as it can and covers as many nations as possible is the only answer for political challenge in climate change. In doing so, Post- Kyoto can become politically acceptable to broad-raging stakeholders.
Finally, the paper will argue the way forward for climate change. Last month, November 2006, COP-12 was held in Nairobi, Kenya to discuss Post-Kyoto. This round succeeded in extracting concessions from developing countries including China and India and stipulated that continual revision of the Kyoto Protocol was incorporated in Post-Kyoto discussions.
Therefore, Post-Kyoto should develop a framework that promotes both unity and equity feelings among the international community, and I hope that the proposals presented in this paper can enhance the prospects for successful establishment of Post-Kyoto.
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