Export slowdown, supply chain disruptions, demand contraction, standstill in formal and informal activities during COVID-19 caused widespread economic distress
Social groups and economic lobbies in Bangladesh voicing their demand from the beginning
But there was a need for systematic evidence on depth and spread of the poverty impact of COVID-19 to bring attention to this cause
Why the Study
Team Members
• Dr. Narayan C Das, Senior Research Fellow
• Dr. Imran Matin, Executive Director
• Shakil Ahmed, Senior Research Associate
• Atiya Rahman, Senior Research Associate
• Tahsina Naz Khan, Research Associate
• Montajina Tasnim, Research Associate
• Nusrat Jahan, Head, Knowledge Management
• Dr. Hossain Zillur Rahman, Executive Chairman
• Md. Abdul Wazed, Senior Fellow, PPRC & Former DG, BBS
• Umama Zillur, Research Associate
• Sabrina Miti Gain, Research Associate
• Fatema Mohammad, Research Associate
• Field Research Team
BIGD PPRC
The Study
Sample: 12,000 HHs
Rural 51%
Urban 49%
Sample Source:
Urban:from a census in 2016-2017 of 24,283 slum HHs in 35 slums across 9 districts in Dhaka, Chattogram, Khulna, Barisal and Rangpur Rural: from a nationally representative (divisional level) survey of 26,925 HHs across 64 districts
Study Period
4 April 12 April
Average HH size
4.85
Success: 5,471 HHs
Respondent Profile
Female-headed HHs
12%
Income Categories
Extreme poor: per capita income below national lower poverty line
Moderate poor: per capita income above lower poverty line &
and below upper poverty line
Non-poor: above upper poverty line, further divided into
Vulnerable non-poor: above upper poverty line but below median national income
Non-poor: above median national income
Respondent HHs’ Economic Profile
(pre-COVID)
48
12
24
16 46
20
11
24 47
16 18 20
Extreme poor Moderate Poor Vulnerable non-poor Non-poor
% of households rural urban Overall
below lower poverty line
above lower & below upper poverty line
above upper poverty line & below median
income
Above median income
Households’ Main Source of Income
(pre-COVID)
20
37 39 1
2
18
24
38 16
5
Business (%) Salaried/wage labour (%) Casual Labour (%) Agriculture/livestock rearing (%) Help/Assistace/others (%)
% of respondents
Rural Urban
Impact on
Income and
Employment
Urban to Rural Movement at the Onset of Lockdown
Only 6% urban HHs moved to their rural
homes because of COVID-19 during or before survey period Slightly more non-poor urban HHs moved to
their rural homes
No significant difference across occupations
Economic Inactivity among Main Income Earners
(in early April)
54%
72%
65% 65%
57% 58%
Rural Urban Extreme poor Moderate poor Vulnerable non-poor
Non-poor
% of m ain earne rs
55
93
112
207
15 24 38
74
Extreme poor Moderate Poor
Vulnerable non-poor
Non-poor
Per capita daily income in Feb (BDT) Per capita daily income in early April (BDT)
Drastic Reduction in Household Income
108 95
27 37
Urban Slum Rural
75% 62%
73% 75%
67%
65%
Per capita daily income (BDT)
Food Insecurity
48
55 59
74
34 40
46
57
Extreme poor Moderate Poor Vulnerable non- poor
Non-poor Per capita food expenditure in normal day (BDT) Per capita food expenditure in early April (BDT)
60
52
44 41
Urban Slum Rural
28% 22% 27% 27% 22%
Drop in Per Capita Food Expenditure
22%
Per capita daily food expenditure (BDT)
Nutritional Impact: Households Having 3 Meals
Urban-rural Income categories Urban Rural Extreme
poor
Moderate poor
Vulnerable non-poor
Non- poor
% of HHs with 3 meals in February 97 99 98 97 98 98
% of HHs with 3 means in early
April 73 85 73 78 87 89
% HHs decreasing 3 meals 24 14 25 20 12 9
Nutritional Impact: Coping through Reduction in Food Consumption
47
32
42 42
37 32
Urban Rural Extreme poor Moderate Poor
Vulnerable non-poor
Non-poor
% of households
Coping
How are Respondents Meeting Their Food Need?
(% of HHs, as of 12 April)
Personal Social External
24
67
52 47
1
25
14
5 38
83
35 32
4
10
4 0
Household Income Savings Borrowing Reducing food Selling asset Family/ relatives/ neibhgours Government support NGO support
% of H ouseholds
Urban Slum Rural
Self-assessed Staying Capacity: How Long Can They Feed Their Families w/o External Support
38
19
27
13
3 19
15
29
25
11
0-3 days 4-6 days 7-14 days 15-30 days 31 days and above
% of households can live with existing resources
Urban Slum Rural
8 April < 8 May
Priority Concerns during the Crisis
(Multiple responses) Top three concerns Extreme
poor
Moderate Poor
Vulnerable non-poor
Non- poor
INCOME AND LIVELIHOODS
Maintaining family 78 71 68 59
Decrease in income 66 67 73 66
Losing Job 34 32 27 25
Indebtedness 26 28 22 20
FOOD SECURITY
Increase in food price 42 46 41 38
Reduction in food supply in the market
4 4 8 5
HEALTH Mental Stress 23 20 22 26
COVID-19 infection 51 55 61 60
Lack of health care services 6 5 6 7
EDUCATION Education of the children 5 5 5 7
Gender Impact
Female-headed Households
In urban slums, among female-headed households,
greater reduction in both food expenditure (31% vs 27%) and number of meals (34% vs 22%) compared to male counterpart.
In rural areas, only in case of the number of meals (19%
vs 14%)
But, significantly more female-headed households reported getting support from:
Government
Neighbours, friends, relatives NGOS
Support
Need Assessment: Support Wanted
(Early April)
78 70
70 67
60 65 70 75 80
Urban Slum Rural
Cash Support (% of hhs) Food Support (% of hhs)
81 77
70
60
72 70 68
58
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Extreme poor
Moderate Poor
Vulnerable non-poor
Non-poor
Per Capita Support Requested vs Income Loss from February
RURAL (BDT)URBAN (BDT)
1331 1593
1383 1682
1450 1054
1549
1153
2730
1504
Extreme poor Moderate poor All poor New poor' Poor & 'new poor'
1614 1908
1702 2036
1745 1248
2287
1560
3035
1748
Extreme poor Moderate poor All poor New poor' Poor & 'new poor'
Support requested Decrease in income from February
Analytical
Takeaways
Vulnerable Non-Poor HHs (in Feb) Sliding Down the Poverty Ladder
84 70
3 3
5 22
8 5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Urban slum Rural
Extreme poor Moderate poor Vulnerable non-poor Non-poor
73% fell below poverty line
87% fell below poverty line
The ‘New Poor’: Rethinking Poverty Dynamics
21.6
25.1 22.9
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Rural Urban National
New poor as % of total population New poor are those
that were vulnerable non-poor before COVID- 19 but became poor
after COVID-19
How Much is Needed to Support the Poor & ‘New Poor”
Rural Urban Per capita per month support (average amount
requested by the poor and ‘new poor’) 1,450 1,745 Total poor and ‘new poor’ in Bangladesh 42,994,127 27,028,719 Total amount of support (Crore BDT per month) 6,232 4,716
Poor (Extreme poor and Moderate poor) and the ‘New Poor’
constitute 43% of the population of Bangladesh
BDT 10,949 crore per month required to
support the poor and ‘new poor’
Policy
Implications
Deep and system-wide poverty impact
Initially more severe for the urban poor
Emergence of “new poor” class needs rethinking of approaches to poverty
Large-scale social
protection support critical to avert widespread food
insecurity Need for both food and
cash support in nearly equal measure.
Last mile delivery challenges
Real-time tracking of the health and livelihood impact of Covid-19 and how well personal and external support are mitigating such impact is crucial for more effective policy response
