ANALISIS PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN PADA
WILAYAH ALIRAN SUNGAI SERDANG DENGAN MODEL
MARKOV
TESIS
Oleh :
AHMAD ADLI HARAHAP
047003003/PWD
PROGRAM PASCASARJANA
UNIVERSITAS SUMATERA UTARA
MEDAN
2006
Ahmad Adli Harahap : Analisis Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Pada Wilayah Aliran Sungai Serdang…, 2006
LAND USE CHANGE ANALYSIS ON SERDANG RIVER'S WATERSHED USING MARKOV'S MODEL
AHMAD ADLI HARAHAP
ABSTRACT
Usage of land by human being for various different purposes, for residential area, work-places, producing food-stuff, recreation work-places, etc, according to the characteristic of the land.
Rapid development and economic growth will result on land use change. Land use change sometimes will give benefits, and also caused effect to the life of human being and environment. On a river's watershed, land use change on the upstream area will affect downstream area.
To predict land use change of Serdang River's Watershed in the future, analysis done by using Markov's Model. Analysis conducted on the patterns of land use change that happened in the previous period. Land use change patterns in the previous period divided into 3 regional development categories, namely: rapid, moderate and slow development area.
The research gave the following results: between 1990 – 2010 settlement area will increase from 5% to 10%, rice-field area relatively stable at 15% to 16%, plantation area will decrease from 34% to 31%, other land usages will increase from 28% to 40% and forest area decrease from 17% become to remain 4%. At regions witch has sapid development potency; land use change in the future will be the conversion of rice-field and plantation area into settlement area and other land usages. At moderate and slow development regions, the change of usage of land as
rice-field in the next period relatively stable. The research's result also indicated that forest area on the upstream will tend to decrease, converse to plantation area and other land usages.
To anticipate the land use changes that will be happened, government policies are needed to control the decrease of technically irrigated rice-field area and returning the forest area on the upstream as conservation area.
Keywords: land use change. Serdang River's watershed, Markov s model
Ahmad Adli Harahap : Analisis Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan Pada Wilayah Aliran Sungai Serdang…, 2006
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